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View Full Version : Can Andy Dalton Jump Into the First Round?


gpngc
01-22-2011, 03:01 AM
Everyone who watched TCU this season (so basically every college football fan) is high on this kid. Now Mayock appears to be singing his praises as well. And rightfully so.

-Accurate
-Athletic/mobile
-Good decision-maker
-Leader
-Football IQ
-Proven winner
-Stronger arm than previously thought

The only glaring weakness is the color of his hair.

He's got the Senior Bowl to keep his momentum going.

The consensus here seems to be 2nd-3rd round (I think mid-2nd AT LEAST with the QB demand) so who thinks he can Joe Flacco/Jason Campbell his way into the first round?

JPP90
01-22-2011, 03:13 AM
If he outplays Locker, I say yes. He's really gotta display that supposedly better than previously thought arm all week. But if he does and if Locker really screws up...I don't see why a team wouldn't move him up from the 2nd-3rd round range ahead of guys like Locker and Stanzi and right into the Seahawks lap. I think Carroll would rather have the Pac-10 guy though. If Locker drops to Seattle I think its a done deal regardless of what either do in Mobile. Locker = excitement and ticket sales in Seattle...dream scenario.

ellsy82
01-22-2011, 04:18 AM
I, for one, hope he can. Two points here. #1...all the QBs rated in the first round have serious question marks around them. #2...I'd love any guy to slip into the first round at QB, that'll allow another prospect to slip further down the round closer to where my team is picking.

Shane P. Hallam
01-22-2011, 04:26 AM
He'll need a huge week at Mobile. I honestly think it is more likely one or two of the "Big 4" QBs fall out of the first than Dalton making it 5 in the first.

San Diego Chicken
01-22-2011, 05:11 AM
He's an interesting guy, first round seems like a stretch though unless someone's trading up.

It's funny, when he was a younger player, I saw him as a guy that had really good arm power but struggled with his accuracy and changing speed on this throws. He's really developed as a passer over his career. Still probably could use work on mechanics and the offense he's coming from is kinda gimmicky. But that's sort of nitpicking, there's a lot to like about him. I like his chances of developing into a starter more than Kaepernick's.

OzTitan
01-22-2011, 05:22 AM
I, for one, hope he can. Two points here. #1...all the QBs rated in the first round have serious question marks around them. #2...I'd love any guy to slip into the first round at QB, that'll allow another prospect to slip further down the round closer to where my team is picking.


ooooooo, look at me, I'm a fan of a team with a quarterback - lar-dee-dar!


:P

Ness
01-22-2011, 05:26 AM
Don't know about first round. Seems like he might have a lot of good upside based on what I've heard. Wouldn't mind the 49ers taking a shot at him in the middle rounds.

TACKLE
01-22-2011, 05:30 AM
Andy Dalton is a slightly bigger but not quite as good Colt McCoy. Colt was getting some 1st round talk but ended up going in the 3rd. I expect a similar result for Dalton.

FUNBUNCHER
01-22-2011, 06:02 AM
So often it seems that evaluating a QB comes down to gut feeling. Dalton has enough going for him to make it in the NFL as a starter, but is he a guy that impresses people as capable of developing into a pro-bowl type player??

I don't see that. But I don't really ever see that with most QB prospects, unless they have all world tools.

Did Rodgers profile as the player he is today?? Physically, I don't see much difference between the two as college players.

32 picks in the first round, so I wouldn't be shocked to see Dalton sneak into the back end.

JaxJag_1
01-22-2011, 08:32 AM
I think he can, he's the best QB in this class.

phlysac
01-22-2011, 08:43 AM
Hype train is starting to roll. I thought that Jim Harbaugh might dust off this gem in the mid-rounds but he might be climbing quickly.

JaxJag_1
01-22-2011, 08:45 AM
Ponder and Harbaugh would make a great fit, in my opinion.

Brent
01-22-2011, 09:21 AM
Ponder and Harbaugh would make a great fit, in my opinion.
Ponder, Stanzi and Dalton all fit.

JaxJag_1
01-22-2011, 09:24 AM
Ponder, Stanzi and Dalton all fit.

Dalton won't because he'll be in Jacksonville.

keylime_5
01-22-2011, 10:47 AM
I don't see first round. First round is for franchise QBs and I don't think anyone sees Dalton as a franchise QB. Maybe a guy you take in round 3 and hope develops into a franchise QB, but not a guy you spend your most premium pick on.

CashmoneyDrew
01-22-2011, 10:49 AM
Screw you guys and Mayock for getting the hype train going. I was trying to quietly praise this guy while at the same time praying the Titans could steal him in the 4th.

bucfan12
01-22-2011, 11:32 AM
I don't think he'll be a 1st round guy. However, I can see a team like Buffalo or San Fransisco taking a fly on him as early as round 2. Can you imagine him being coached under Harbaugh?

Brent
01-22-2011, 11:44 AM
I don't see first round. First round is for franchise QBs and I don't think anyone sees Dalton as a franchise QB. Maybe a guy you take in round 3 and hope develops into a franchise QB, but not a guy you spend your most premium pick on.
With the new CBA likely capping rookie wages, I anticipate more guys going higher than we imagine.

And of course there is the old adage: "A lot can change between now and April."

rfc17
01-22-2011, 12:24 PM
Word is Gene Smith really likes Dalton. And as Gene has shown the last couple drafts, no only is he a pretty good judge of talent, he'll take his guy wherever he wants to.

If Dalton does well at the Senior Bowl, I could see him moving up draft boards.

JaxJag_1
01-22-2011, 12:30 PM
Word is Gene Smith really likes Dalton. And as Gene has shown the last couple drafts, not only is he a pretty good judge of talent, he'll take his guy wherever he wants to.

If Dalton does well at the Senior Bowl, I could see him moving up draft boards.

Well said rfc

Buffalo M
01-22-2011, 12:49 PM
He looks like a 4th round talent to me.

He knows what he needs to do but he doesn't have all the gifts to work with.

JaxJag_1
01-22-2011, 12:57 PM
He looks like a 4th round talent to me.

He knows what he needs to do but he doesn't have all the gifts to work with.

You don't have to have a rocket arm and 6'5" height to be a great NFL QB.

bucfan12
01-22-2011, 01:06 PM
You don't have to have a rocket arm and 6'5" height to be a great NFL QB.

Yeah but not everyone is Drew Brees. I can see Dalton being a solid starter in this league, kind of like a Chad Pennington/Brad Johnson type guy and be a starter on a team that has a great team around him (defense, running game and talented WRs, kind of like what Mark Sanchez has). I don't think he will ever be an elite guy who carries a team on his back.

49erNation85
01-22-2011, 01:12 PM
Ponder, Stanzi and Dalton all fit.

I wouldn't mind either Stanzi or Dalton in later rounds to SF.I'll pass on Ponder tho unless he comes alive next week .

JaxJag_1
01-22-2011, 01:49 PM
I'm not saying he's Joe Montana, but Joe Montana and Andy Dalton had similar concerns coming out of college. As far as arm strength and size are concerned.

BeerBaron
01-22-2011, 02:06 PM
Reading through this, I am reminded of last year when many thought that Colt McCoy might make for the 4th first round QB. He then went appropriately in the 3rd round.

I think Dalton will prove to be a similar case. NFL teams don't exactly overdraft the slightly undersized, weaker armed, accurate guys. But if someone with a solid corps of playmakers in place already (San Fran, Minnesota?) takes Dalton, he could definitely make for an excellent game manager and distributor of the ball. Let that elite talent do it's job and maybe pick up a few 3rd downs with his arm per game.

At the end of the day....I say 3rd round pick.

keylime_5
01-22-2011, 02:18 PM
thing is Dalton never put up the gaudy statistics and wasn't quite the star that McCoy was. McCoy only broke the record for career wins and had like a 70% completion percentage his junior year. I don't see the same kind of flash and ability to take over games in Dalton that Brees and McCoy had. He's more of a piece of the puzzle than a guy you build a team around.

SchizophrenicBatman
01-22-2011, 02:20 PM
Comparing Dalton to Colt McCoy is doing Colt a disservice

first, Dalton's arm and size >>>>> McCoy's. He projects to the NFL even if he doesnt have the exact measurables you want. McCoy you had to squint to make him fit

but McCoy's accuracy and college success >>>>> Dalton's.

The guy is solid but he only threw 30+ passes three times as an upperclassman because of TCU's rushing attack

BeerBaron
01-22-2011, 02:28 PM
Comparing Dalton to Colt McCoy is doing Colt a disservice

first, Dalton's arm and size >>>>> McCoy's. He projects to the NFL even if he doesnt have the exact measurables you want. McCoy you had to squint to make him fit

but McCoy's accuracy and college success >>>>> Dalton's.

The guy is solid but he only threw 30+ passes three times as an upperclassman because of TCU's rushing attack

I'm not comparing them as specific prospects but as guys in a similar situation. Neither has ideal NFL physical tools, but they have enough to give them a shot with their college success. I think Colt fittingly went in the 3rd round, and I think that is a good estimation for Dalton as well.

JaxJag_1
01-22-2011, 02:42 PM
Colt McCoy had a fantastic college career, but was his college career THAT much better than Dalton's? Hardly.

Dalton is third in NCAA history in wins for a starting QB. Dalton was also 3-1 in bowl games, and was MVP in all 3 wins.

Sniper
01-22-2011, 02:46 PM
Colt McCoy had a fantastic college career, but was his college career THAT much better than Dalton's? Hardly.

Dalton is third in NCAA history in wins for a starting QB.

Isn't McCoy No. 1? In a real conference?

JaxJag_1
01-22-2011, 02:50 PM
Isn't McCoy No. 1? In a real conference?

He is, but it doesn't discredit all that Dalton accomplished.

McCoy was phenomenal in college, I acknowledged that. My point was that, to say Dalton's career was much worse is simply false.

BeerBaron
01-22-2011, 02:50 PM
Isn't McCoy No. 1? In a real conference?

The Big 12? Where defense is optional (south of Nebraska)???

Sniper
01-22-2011, 02:51 PM
The Big 12? Where defense is optional (south of Nebraska)???

It's still a better conference than the MWC.

bucfan12
01-22-2011, 03:35 PM
Whats with all the talk of Colt McCoy being successful in the NFL? He played well his first couple games, but I don't see him as a franchise guy. I think he will be average, like Jeff Garcia/Jake Plummer type.

I think Andy Dalton has a better chance and become a better pro than Colt McCoy. I think his arm is stronger and he's bigger and can hold up better in the NFL. Still wouldn't take in the 1st round, but he could be successful.

TACKLE
01-22-2011, 03:45 PM
Whats with all the talk of Colt McCoy being successful in the NFL? He played well his first couple games, but I don't see him as a franchise guy. I think he will be average, like Jeff Garcia/Jake Plummer type.

I think Andy Dalton has a better chance and become a better pro than Colt McCoy. I think his arm is stronger and he's bigger and can hold up better in the NFL. Still wouldn't take in the 1st round, but he could be successful.

What's wrong with getting a Jeff Garcia/Jake Plummer type in the 3rd round?

bucfan12
01-22-2011, 03:48 PM
Never going to be that elite guy that can take you to a super bowl, unless you have a top 3-5 defense keeping you in games. Or an excellent running game.

BeerBaron
01-22-2011, 03:50 PM
What's wrong with getting a Jeff Garcia/Jake Plummer type in the 3rd round?

Nothing at all. Especially considering the lesser risk of taking him there vs. taking one of the top 4 guys with all the question marks they have in the first round.

bucfan12
01-22-2011, 03:55 PM
Woah! Hold on. I was comparing Colt McCoy to the Jeff Garcia/Jake Plummer type. Not Andy Dalton. I kinda compare him to a Chad Pennington like, but with a stronger arm.

keylime_5
01-22-2011, 04:03 PM
Whats with all the talk of Colt McCoy being successful in the NFL? He played well his first couple games, but I don't see him as a franchise guy. I think he will be average, like Jeff Garcia/Jake Plummer type.

I think Andy Dalton has a better chance and become a better pro than Colt McCoy. I think his arm is stronger and he's bigger and can hold up better in the NFL. Still wouldn't take in the 1st round, but he could be successful.

I think with his poise and accuracy he showed as a rookie people think he has the potential to be the next Drew Brees style franchise QB who doesn't have an ideal arm but does every thing else well. Philip Rivers and Brees don't have good arm strength, but are two of the 5 best QBs in the league and have pretty good deep balls. If McCoy can throw a better deep ball he can make it in the NFL because he does everything else really well.

Dalton never really showed the command or playmaking ability that McCoy did. McCoy could throw the ball 50+ times a game in college and put up 400 yards and 5 touchdowns and win games. He had no running game and was basically the Texas offense for his last two years as a starter. Dalton was more of a game manager who did his part real well, but wasn't the star QB who was responsible for his team's success. TCU was a running team who had a great defense, Dalton was a good fit who I think profiles into a Matt Flynn type.

bucfan12
01-22-2011, 04:07 PM
I think with his poise and accuracy he showed as a rookie people think he has the potential to be the next Drew Brees style franchise QB who doesn't have an ideal arm but does every thing else well. Philip Rivers and Brees don't have good arm strength, but are two of the 5 best QBs in the league and have pretty good deep balls. If McCoy can throw a better deep ball he can make it in the NFL because he does everything else really well.

Dalton never really showed the command or playmaking ability that McCoy did. McCoy could throw the ball 50+ times a game in college and put up 400 yards and 5 touchdowns and win games. He had no running game and was basically the Texas offense for his last two years as a starter. Dalton was more of a game manager who did his part real well, but wasn't the star QB who was responsible for his team's success. TCU was a running team who had a great defense, Dalton was a good fit who I think profiles into a Matt Flynn type.

McCoy played in a gimmick Texas offense that can make a lot of QBs look good completion % wise. He gathered a lot of those numbers by throwing quick screens and his WRs made some plays. He didn't really shred defense with deep balls, but with quick and easy passes. In the NFL, you can't do that with 4-5 WRs every down in the shot gun.

keylime_5
01-22-2011, 04:12 PM
well McCoy had very good accuracy playing in a pro style offense this past season despite not having very good receivers. He hit his TE and RBs consistently and even showed very impressive intermediate passing ability throwing 20 yards down field, mainly towards the middle of the field. I don't think there is any question anymore that his game can translate to the NFL, it's whether or not he can be a franchise QB with his limited physical tools....and so far the answer is a strong maybe as opposed to a strong "doubtful." The west coast offense that is being installed this year under the new coaching staff will suit him more as well and the deep routes will be less needed, though not completely irrelevant.

jrdrylie
01-22-2011, 04:18 PM
If I had to make a guess right now as to where he is going, it would be 49th overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Gene Smith has made it no secret that he will be drafting a QB this year. It won't be Newton or Mallet due to character concerns. And I doubt it will be Locker because first, he may be gone by then. Even if he isn't, I just don't think they spend a first rounder on a QB.

Why? Because everything I hear is that Gene Smith loves Andy Dalton. Ideally, they would probably like to trade back later in the second round and grab him. But if they can't, I think Dalton ends up being a top-50 pick.

bucfan12
01-22-2011, 04:22 PM
If I had to make a guess right now as to where he is going, it would be 49th overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Gene Smith has made it no secret that he will be drafting a QB this year. It won't be Newton or Mallet due to character concerns. And I doubt it will be Locker because first, he may be gone by then. Even if he isn't, I just don't think they spend a first rounder on a QB.

Why? Because everything I hear is that Gene Smith loves Andy Dalton. Ideally, they would probably like to trade back later in the second round and grab him. But if they can't, I think Dalton ends up being a top-50 pick.

If he plays very well next week, I can see a team like the 49ers taking him in the 2nd round. If he outperforms Locker, then who knows, stranger things have happened and with so many questions surrounding all of the QBs this year, then he could slip into round 1 (with the 49ers trading up of course. )

FUNBUNCHER
01-22-2011, 05:06 PM
How does Dalton compare to Matt Cassel as a prospect??
Physically, that's who Dalton reminds me of.

BeerBaron
01-22-2011, 05:09 PM
How does Dalton compare to Matt Cassel as a prospect??
Physically, that's who Dalton reminds me of.

Physically, I think Cassel has a longer frame all around. I think Dalton will check in about 6'2 vs. Cassel who I think is a lankier 6'4-6'5.

Also, as prospects, Dalton has...yanno....college starting experience. Cassel did not.

TACKLE
01-22-2011, 05:13 PM
How does Dalton compare to Matt Cassel as a prospect??
Physically, that's who Dalton reminds me of.

I don't really see it. Cassell was drafted soley on his impressive physical tools. Cassel was 6'4 230 and had a strong arm. Whereas Dalton is 6'2 220 with a very average arm.

FUNBUNCHER
01-22-2011, 05:56 PM
Cassel doesn't have a strong arm.

TACKLE
01-22-2011, 06:10 PM
Cassel doesn't have a strong arm.

Compared to the rest of the NFL, he's very middle of the pack. Compared to Andy Dalton, yes he has a strong arm.

SchizophrenicBatman
01-22-2011, 06:28 PM
He is, but it doesn't discredit all that Dalton accomplished.

McCoy was phenomenal in college, I acknowledged that. My point was that, to say Dalton's career was much worse is simply false.

dalton's career wasn't that exceptional the first 3 years. he won a lot of games because TCU is a great program

his stats against top competition were up and down and it isn't like he obliterated the MWC. the bowl game against wisconsin is helping him a lot and that's fair but this is getting out of hand. if you draft this guy and expect him to be a long term starter just prepare to be disappointed.

McCoy threw the ball 318 times his freshman year. That's pretty much what Dalton averaged his last 3 seasons when he had a positive TD:INT ratio. McCoy averaged about 440 his last 3 years. HUGE difference in how much the offense relied on one guy even if McCoy was throwing long handoffs most of the time

Texas fell apart this year without Colt. Will TCU do the same without Dalton? Well we ultimately won't know since theyre changing conferences but I'm going to say no anyway

Ness
01-22-2011, 07:03 PM
Never going to be that elite guy that can take you to a super bowl, unless you have a top 3-5 defense keeping you in games. Or an excellent running game.

Like most teams that get to the Super Bowl and win it do? Most teams that win the Super Bowl aren't carried by the quarterback the entire way. Sure they are a big part of it, but still only a piece to the puzzle. Just look at this season's Colts. Manning couldn't do it all by himself and shouldn't have to. Even when they won the Super Bowl, that defense was a huge part of it in the playoffs.

Buffalo M
01-22-2011, 07:15 PM
You don't have to have a rocket arm and 6'5" height to be a great NFL QB.
The Bills already have that guy in Fitzpatrick.

FUNBUNCHER
01-22-2011, 08:33 PM
McCoy played in a gimmick Texas offense that can make a lot of QBs look good completion % wise. He gathered a lot of those numbers by throwing quick screens and his WRs made some plays. He didn't really shred defense with deep balls, but with quick and easy passes. In the NFL, you can't do that with 4-5 WRs every down in the shot gun.


IMO McCoy and VY made the Longhorn offense hum, they weren't solely products of a 'system'.
And McCoy threw it over the top plenty at Texas, it wasn't a 5 yard dumpoff and 40 YAC all game.

Chris Sims sucked in a very similar offense, as does the current QB.

You shred a D with pinpoint, precision passes into coverage, not bombs.

nepg
01-22-2011, 08:39 PM
I think Dalton will be a good backup or holdover for some team. Not in the first, though.

SchizophrenicBatman
01-22-2011, 08:56 PM
IMO McCoy and VY made the Longhorn offense hum, they weren't solely products of a 'system'.
And McCoy threw it over the top plenty at Texas, it wasn't a 5 yard dumpoff and 40 YAC all game.

Chris Sims sucked in a very similar offense, as does the current QB.

You shred a D with pinpoint, precision passes into coverage, not bombs.

And FWIW, it's not like Dalton was airing it out for TCU. He threw a full range of passes but let's not act like he was handicapped and bumbling along with poor teammates or a pro style offense he took time to learn. They had plenty of 5 wide sets, pistol, hell even some option...

SenorGato
01-22-2011, 09:15 PM
No x infinity. Anyone who'd draft a decent TCU QB in the first round should lose their job within minutes...

SF Dolphin Fan
01-22-2011, 09:43 PM
If Scott is on target with his projections, I think we'll see a lot of quarterbacks going in the early 2nd round --- Pat Devlin, Ricky Stanzi and Andy Dalton possibly. I do believe teams will reach for those top four qb's, though, meaning some of those teams picking early will take care of their quarterback needs in the first.

Shane P. Hallam
01-23-2011, 06:44 AM
If Scott is on target with his projections, I think we'll see a lot of quarterbacks going in the early 2nd round --- Pat Devlin, Ricky Stanzi and Andy Dalton possibly. I do believe teams will reach for those top four qb's, though, meaning some of those teams picking early will take care of their quarterback needs in the first.

Not Devlin after this week. Maybe if he ends up at the Senior Bowl and redeems his stock, but he has fallen to the midrounds now.