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Razor
01-27-2011, 08:55 AM
I decided to add comments to this mock. As usual, constructive criticism is more than welcome.

1) Carolina Panthers: AJ Green, WR, Georgia
Without a QB worthy of this pick the Panthers should just go BPA – in this case AJ Green. With him maybe Clausen can win a few more games.

2) Denver Broncos: Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama
You could certainly make a case for Patrick Peterson here, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Champ Bailey. However, the Broncos really need help on the defensive line. He’s a safer pick than Fairley and has great upside.

3) Buffalo Bills: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
There are no QBs who are worthy of a first round selection imo. However, the Bills need a face of the franchise and a glimmer of hope. Gabbert has a lot of upside but is also very much a work in progress.

4) Cincinnati Bengals: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
The Bengals only recorded 27 sacks this past season, and even though Carlos Dunlap showed a lot of promise they still need another pass rusher.

5) Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Both of their starting OLBs are old and past their prime. They do have O’Brien Schofield but they can’t afford to pass up on a pass rusher like Miller.

6) Cleveland Browns: Cam Jordan, DE, Cal
Rob Ryan got the most out of a defense with little or no talent in the front seven. Cam Jordan is dominating at the Senior Bowl and should help this defense going forward.

7) San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Fits one of their biggest needs and BPA by a mile.

8) Tennessee Titans: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Not the biggest need for the Titans, but a talent like Quinn would be tough to pass on here. QB would be a major reach here and Quinn is more or less a sure thing.

9) Dallas Cowboys: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Prev.: Nick Fairley
Very talented corner who should improve an underperforming defensive backfield

10) Washington Redskins: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
McNabb is on the way out and Grossman clearly isn’t the answer at QB. Once again, this is a reach but it’s worth it if you get your franchise quarterback.

11) Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
They’re converting to the 3-4 but have no players who look the part of a 3-4 OLB. Smith doesn’t hold up well against the run, but he’s a big time talent and has the size and frame that you want in a 3-4 OLB. Oh yeah, and he can really get after the QB.

12) Minnesota Vikings: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Prev.: Cam Newton
Pat Williams is old and in order for this team to win games they need a good defense since the mess Chilly left behind at the quarterback position will take some time to sort out. Fairley has very, very good value at this point and should help that defense a lot going forward.

13) Detroit Lions: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
I know that many people pick Kerrigan here and that’s very likely to happen imo. But their DL played really well this past season and is likely to get even better next season. They have a huge hole at OLB and Ayers is a perfect fit. Not the most physical player, but a great athlete who offers a lot of versatility.

14) St Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
This might be too low for Jones. I wouldn’t be surprised if some teams have JJ ranked ahead of AJ since he’s a much better run blocker, but as a receiver he’s not at the level of AJ Green imo. He’s still a very good receiver though and will help Bradford a lot.

15) Miami Dolphins: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Prev.: Jake Locker
It clear that Miami doesn't have their QB of the future on the roster right now. Newton might not even be that guy but he's worth taking a chance on at this point.

16) Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Jacksonville only recorded 26 sacks this past season and I think it’s safe to say that Derrick Harvey is a major bust. Kerrigan is the kind of player and person they want in Jacksonville and should improve their pass rush significantly.

17) New England Patriots f/Oakland Raiders: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
I admit this is a reach. However, the Patriots can’t afford to pass up on a pass rusher of Houston’s caliber. The Patriots are starting Rob Ninkovich at OLB which says a whole lot about the quality (or lack of quality) of the OLBs on the roster. Nate Solder, Anthony Castonzo and Derek Sherrod would all be good picks as well, but there’s no greater need than OLB for the Patriots.

18) San Diego Chargers: JJ Watt, DE, Wisonsin
The Chargers had the best defense in the NFL and lead the league in sacks. However, Jacques Cesaire is a weak point on the defensive line that can be upgraded. Watt has great upside as a 5-tech imo, but one could make the case for Cam Heyward as well.

19) New York Giants: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
They don’t have a lot of holes but they could need an upgrade at LT. Solder probably has more upside than any other tackle this year and he’s looking good at the Senior Bowl.

20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
This is a little high for Clayborn imo, but the Bucs desperately need a DE.

21) Kansas City Chiefs: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
With no pass rushers available that wouldn’t be a huge reach they shore up the offensive line with Castonzo. RT has been a problem for the Chiefs and Castonzo looks like the solution.

22) Indianapolis Colts: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi St.
The Colts probably have the worst OL in the league. Personally I think they should grab Paea at this point, but that’s not likely to happen.

23) Philadelphia Eagles: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (Fl.)
Besides Asante Samuel (who’s grossly overrated) the Eagles really don’t have much at CB. Harris had a great season and pretty much shut down opposing receivers.

24) New Orleans Saints: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon St.
Paea has been BPA for some time now. I know Heyward is picking up steam right now but for a 4-3 team Paea is a much better selection.

25) Seattle Seahawks: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
Seattle can go in a number of direction here: CB, QB, OL and don’t rule out RB either with Ingram still on the board. But Nevis is such a disruptive player that would be a great player to have next to Mebane.

26) Baltimore Ravens: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Gaither is likely done in Baltimore and their OL didn't look good this past season and while Smith is likely the better player the Ravens like to draft seniors.

27) Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
This is the pick I spend the most time on. Atlanta had a terrible defense against the pass, they have some pending FAs on the OL, Mark Ingram is BPA by a mile and their DL can’t get much pressure on opposing QBs. However, Rudolph is a big time talent at TE who’s been hurt by injuries two years in a row now. Gonzo isn’t getting any younger and with a year learning from Gonzo I think Rudolph could take over without the offense missing a beat.

28) New England Patriots: Cam Heyward, DE, Ohio St.
Even with Ty Warren coming back the Patriots have a big need at DE. They were forced to play Vince Wilfork at DE on several occasions simply because they didn’t have the players. Heyward played himself back into the first round with a great performance in the Sugar Bowl. He has the size and strength for playing DE in BBs system.

29) Chicago Bears: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Fifty-six. That’s the number of sacks given up by the Chicago OL in the 2010 regular season. No QB can be successful while running to save their life.

30) New York Jets: Corey Liuget, DE, Illinois
The Jets have a lot of questions going into the offseason. They have some key free agents in Cromartie, Edwards and Holmes and a lot of aging players. Their DL played well down the stretch but they could need an improvement over Mike DeVito at RDE. Liuget might be a better fit in the 4-3 but I think he would fit in well in Rex Ryan’s aggressive 3-4 scheme as well.

31) Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
This pick just makes too much sense not to happen. The Steelers could really need some help on the interior OL and pairing him with his brother in the middle would shore up the interior line for years to come.

32) Green Bay Packers: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
I’m going to catch hell for this pick… With no 3-4 OLBs available that wouldn’t be a reach I decided that Ingram is the best option here. Ted Thompson usually takes the best player available on his board. So while there are much bigger needs for the Packers I have a hard time seeing TT passing on Ingram despite having Starks and Grant. I thought about Aaron Williams and Stefen Wisniewski as well, but decided that Ingram would be the better pick.

AntoinCD
01-27-2011, 09:01 AM
Nice mock for what would be almost worst case scenario for the Pats. Especially at #17 with the top WRs, OLBs and DEs all off the board.

DiG
01-27-2011, 09:21 AM
ryan mallet is not only a reach but an awful fit in shanahans offense. he has the worst mobility of all the top quarterbacks and absolutely cannot throw accurately on the run. terrible pick for this franchise.

ChicagoBearsVet23
01-27-2011, 09:22 AM
Great Bears Pick!!!

Poz51
01-27-2011, 09:33 AM
Gabbert... Not sure his pocket awareness, footwork or lack of mobility fit with Gailey's system, he would be given the needed time to develop. So if they deam him "franchise" material, I could live with it. Still think Newton is the best fit, with the most upside and would prefer to go in that direction if they go QB myself. But, alas they never ask me my opinion... I trust this administration more than any since Polian left.
Quickly on Fairley, can you help me find the "off the field" problems, I can not find them, and am continually hearing about them.

thebow305
01-27-2011, 09:35 AM
Nice Phins pick

FootballGod
01-27-2011, 09:41 AM
I am a Bengals fan so maybe someone in Pittsburgh can correct me on this but isn't the Steelers real need on the o-line at tackle not guard? I can see them picking up the other Pouncy but I don't think it will happen.

SRogers92
01-27-2011, 09:43 AM
My complaints:

- Can't see that many teams passing on PP ... Broncos, Bills, Bengals(if they let Jonathan Joseph go), and Cards could all take him.

- I still say absolutely no way Titans go DE. They will be re-signing Jason Babin(12.5 sacks I believe) to a huge contract and they just drafted Derrick Morgan in Round 1 last year. You cannot tie that much into one position.

- Nick Fairley won't fall that far and he's not a great fit for a 3-4 defense. They have a good NT in Ratliff and moving Fairley into a 3-4 takes away his best asset, penetrating upfield and getting after the QB.

- Pouncey is not a first rounder ... wish everyone would stop pairing him up next to his brother on the Steelers just because they're related. He's not nearly as good as his brother was coming out(and even his bro has struggled a bit).


Interesting reads though.

DiG
01-27-2011, 09:48 AM
- Pouncey is not a first rounder ... wish everyone would stop pairing him up next to his brother on the Steelers just because they're related. He's not nearly as good as his brother was coming out(and even his bro has struggled a bit).


at center theres no comparison but at guard i think they are closer than youd think.

coordinator0
01-27-2011, 09:52 AM
Solid Ravens pick. For how bad the Ravens line was this season it doesn't get much attention outside of the Baltimore fan-base, and it definitely needs to be addressed this off-season. Carimi could play either LT or RT for us and we would get better either way. I think we still keep Oher on the left side but Harbaugh didn't rule out moving him back to RT.

akvikefan89
01-27-2011, 12:04 PM
Newton was an okay pick for the Vikings, Locker would have been better. Solder would have been terrible.

SRogers92
01-27-2011, 12:08 PM
at center theres no comparison but at guard i think they are closer than youd think.

He's not the top Guard ... maybe #3 or 4 at Guard ... he's definitely not a first rounder, IMO ... so the only reason he could be going there in this mock is because of his brother ... I seriously doubt the Steelers draft a guy because his brother plays for the team.

prock
01-27-2011, 12:40 PM
I can definitely dig Newton.

tjsunstein
01-27-2011, 12:43 PM
You nailed it for the Packers as in you're going to get hell for the pick. No way.

TimmG6376
01-27-2011, 01:11 PM
So Prince falls all the way to #32 and TT takes a RB? I don't think so.

proshoota25
01-27-2011, 01:22 PM
i honestly think that if thats how the board played out, the Pats would take Nate Solder. Best player available.

RealityCheck
01-27-2011, 01:42 PM
Sexy, sexy mock.

Razor
01-27-2011, 01:55 PM
So Prince falls all the way to #32 and TT takes a RB? I don't think so.

Haha, that's brillant! Thanks for pointing that out. I made a lot of changes in the top 15 and somehow forgot all about Amukamara.

http://blog.reidreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/epic_fail.jpg

Razor
01-27-2011, 02:04 PM
I made some changes to the mock:
Dallas: Prince Amukamara
Minnesota: Nick Fairley
Miami: Cam Newton

Locker is no longer in the first round.

Hollywood
01-27-2011, 02:07 PM
It's nice to see at least one mock that doesn't have the Dolphins taking Mark Ingram.

TimmG6376
01-27-2011, 02:26 PM
You will still take hell for mocking Ingram to the Packers. I won't argue that at the end of the first it wouldn't be great value. But you have to consider that when Grant went down and Jackson struggled, people were clamoring for TT to make a move for Marshawn Lynch. TT believed that Starks was going to be able to contribute even though he hadn't played football in 2 years. While Starks hasn't been flashy, he has done enough in most Packer fan's opinion that he has only strengthened TT's belief that the RB position is set. Ryan Grant will probably cost about $6 million next season and I would imagine Starks will get a modest extension at some point. I just don't see him investing a first round pick on a RB.

scar988
01-27-2011, 03:32 PM
27) Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
This is the pick I spend the most time on. Atlanta had a terrible defense against the pass, they have some pending FAs on the OL, Mark Ingram is BPA by a mile and their DL canít get much pressure on opposing QBs. However, Rudolph is a big time talent at TE whoís been hurt by injuries two years in a row now. Gonzo isnít getting any younger and with a year learning from Gonzo I think Rudolph could take over without the offense missing a beat.

Terrible defense against the pass? We were 3rd in the league in least amount of 20+ yard plays allowed.

49erNation85
01-27-2011, 03:35 PM
excellent SF pick!Though I don't think SF could pass on Fairly either .

Razor
01-27-2011, 04:32 PM
Terrible defense against the pass? We were 3rd in the league in least amount of 20+ yard plays allowed.

Are you high or just plain dumb? You were ranked 22nd against the pass so let's stop pretending the Falcons have an elite defense. Opposing teams completed 65% (more than the Lions and the Texans just to mention two teams) of their passes against that defensive backfield which most Falcons fans are calling "very good". The Falcon defense was terrible against the pass. And yes, some of it is because of a lack of pass rush. But in the end it falls back on the DBs and they allowed a completion rate of 65%. But still... That's not what we're talking about here. I'm not going to get further into this **** so if you have anything constructive to say about the actual pick you're more than welcome to chime in.

bearsfan_51
01-27-2011, 04:52 PM
29) Chicago Bears: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Fifty-six. Thatís the number of sacks given up by the Chicago OL in the 2010 regular season. No QB can be successful while running to save their life.
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http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_leut7h1jX61qf8yek.gif

scar988
01-27-2011, 05:06 PM
Are you high or just plain dumb? You were ranked 22nd against the pass so let's stop pretending the Falcons have an elite defense. Opposing teams completed 65% (more than the Lions and the Texans just to mention two teams) of their passes against that defensive backfield which most Falcons fans are calling "very good". The Falcon defense was terrible against the pass. And yes, some of it is because of a lack of pass rush. But in the end it falls back on the DBs and they allowed a completion rate of 65%. But still... That's not what we're talking about here. I'm not going to get further into this **** so if you have anything constructive to say about the actual pick you're more than welcome to chime in.

22nd in total passing yardage. Go back to yards per passing attempt. because when you have more passes against your defense, you will obviously allow more yardage. Atlanta was tied for 6th in the NFL in yards per pass. And 22nd still isn't terrible in total yards. terrible is bottom 5. not average yards per pass. And a DB should not be expected to hold up against a receiver for over 5 seconds like ours were. And even then 65% is ok because it's a defense that limits the yardage, even after the pass. No CB will be able to hold up with the lack of pass rush we have at DE outside of Abraham.

The pick works position wise, but the value isn't there. You obviously don't seem to understand that everything I've said is constructive. calling me dumb? dude, you don't have any clue about the Falcons defense. I'm trying to help you. The need at CB is for a nickel. You don't draft a nickel. you draft starters. There is not need for a S. If Weatherspoon was healthy all year the LB's would have been better in coverage.

BTW, I didn't say we were great against the pass. I said we weren't terrible. We don't allow the big play and minimize the yards after catch. That's the defensive philosophy. But to say we are terrible is ridiculous. Especially since you are still in the stone age of statistics. I bet you still rate your offensive lines by penalties and sacks allowed.

I write for multiple sites. I'm the Drafttek Analyst for the Falcons. I know every strength and weakness of my favorite team. I also know football and the schemes. I know my stuff. So don't patronize me. The Falcons 1-gap 4-3 defense with a cover 2 coverage shell is based on getting a pass rush from the front 4. The front 4 doesn't get pressure causing the coverage to be stretched to their absolute limit and making the corners look worse than they actually are. And it's still better than they were in 2009. Quit being a clone of all these so calledexpert who think they know about the team, and call CB our biggest need.

T-RICH49
01-27-2011, 05:39 PM
Baldwin >>>>>Costanzo.OT is like 3rd on our needs list with WR ranking above it.give me Baldwin instead at 21 please

Pat Sims 90
01-27-2011, 06:22 PM
The Bengals dont need to draft Defense Player in the 1st

Razor
01-28-2011, 03:47 AM
Baldwin >>>>>Costanzo.OT is like 3rd on our needs list with WR ranking above it.give me Baldwin instead at 21 please
I don't have Baldwin ranked in my top 64, so that's why I went OL. This was pretty much a worst case scenario for you with a run on pass rushers so I thought I'd improve the OL since the DL looks settled at DE.

The Bengals dont need to draft Defense Player in the 1st
I actually agree with this. However, who would you take? There are no QBs with a first round grade, AJ Green is off the board and it's still too high for JJ. And there are no offensive linemen who should be going in the top ten, let alone the top 5. So who would you want? Odom hasn't been able to stay healthy and Johnson, who has all the talent in the world, has yet to put it all together (5.5 sacks in two seasons). So since there were no players available at positions of need (unless you consider PP a safety and safety as a need that should be adressed this early) Bowers is actually the only player for you there. You could trade down, but it's too early for me to start having trades in these mocks.

Pat Sims 90
01-28-2011, 04:53 AM
I don't have Baldwin ranked in my top 64, so that's why I went OL. This was pretty much a worst case scenario for you with a run on pass rushers so I thought I'd improve the OL since the DL looks settled at DE.


I actually agree with this. However, who would you take? There are no QBs with a first round grade, AJ Green is off the board and it's still too high for JJ. And there are no offensive linemen who should be going in the top ten, let alone the top 5. So who would you want? Odom hasn't been able to stay healthy and Johnson, who has all the talent in the world, has yet to put it all together (5.5 sacks in two seasons). So since there were no players available at positions of need (unless you consider PP a safety and safety as a need that should be adressed this early) Bowers is actually the only player for you there. You could trade down, but it's too early for me to start having trades in these mocks.

Julio Jones or Cam Newton seem most likely picks. Problem is not outside passrush problem with the Bengals is the inside passrush only player they have that can rush the passer from inside is Atkins. 4-3 Passrushing DT is a bigger need then a DE. M. Johnson played better at the end of the season when Dunlap was starting to get double teamed more. Johnson gets pressure he just can never end up with the sack.

Razor
01-28-2011, 04:59 AM
Gabbert... Not sure his pocket awareness, footwork or lack of mobility fit with Gailey's system, he would be given the needed time to develop. So if they deam him "franchise" material, I could live with it. Still think Newton is the best fit, with the most upside and would prefer to go in that direction if they go QB myself. But, alas they never ask me my opinion... I trust this administration more than any since Polian left.
Quickly on Fairley, can you help me find the "off the field" problems, I can not find them, and am continually hearing about them.
I don't see the "lack of mobility" with Gabbert. If he senses pressure he's very good to buy time with his feet and find an open receiver. I'm warming up to Gabbert, I think that with time he could end up being a very good NFL QB. His footwork is my biggest issue with him, but with NFL coaching he should be able to learn. What I really like about him is the fact that he's improved his accuracy every season and that's despite dealing with a lot of drops from his receivers.

About Fairley's off the field problems it's difficult to find out exactly what it is. It's all very hush-hush, but apparantly he's not a nice guy off the field. Until I know more I have to take this into consideration when I do my mocks. I do feel that Fairley needs to interview well in order to go as high as people expect him to.

My complaints:

- Can't see that many teams passing on PP ... Broncos, Bills, Bengals(if they let Jonathan Joseph go), and Cards could all take him.

- I still say absolutely no way Titans go DE. They will be re-signing Jason Babin(12.5 sacks I believe) to a huge contract and they just drafted Derrick Morgan in Round 1 last year. You cannot tie that much into one position.

- Nick Fairley won't fall that far and he's not a great fit for a 3-4 defense. They have a good NT in Ratliff and moving Fairley into a 3-4 takes away his best asset, penetrating upfield and getting after the QB.

- Pouncey is not a first rounder ... wish everyone would stop pairing him up next to his brother on the Steelers just because they're related. He's not nearly as good as his brother was coming out(and even his bro has struggled a bit).

Interesting reads though.

I feel like I explained why I didn't give the Broncos PP. The Bills have bigger needs, that's for sure. The Bengals have arguably the best pair of corners in the NFL and JJ is going nowhere. I actually had the Cards taking him at first, but their OLBs are really old and they don't really have anybody to rush the passer. They do have DRC and Greg Toler at CB which is fine, especially if they get some pass rush. Von Miller is a terrific pass rusher who should do the trick for them.

Jason Babin is going to be 31 going into next season and will look for a big payday. I have a hard time seeing the Titans giving him the contract that he wants, especially since they have Derrick Morgan. Adding Quinn to the mix would be great. He's BPA and will help out the defense from day one.

I think that Nick Fairley can play in a 3-4 and a 4-3. He has the size and the strength to do so. And I do think you could make a case for Pouncey in the first round. As Dirty Thirty pointed out, you're thinking about him as a center. But as a guard he's a very good prospect in his own right. Pairing him with his brother is natural since imo.

SimonRath
01-28-2011, 08:09 AM
22nd in total passing yardage. Go back to yards per passing attempt. because when you have more passes against your defense, you will obviously allow more yardage. Atlanta was tied for 6th in the NFL in yards per pass. And 22nd still isn't terrible in total yards. terrible is bottom 5. not average yards per pass. And a DB should not be expected to hold up against a receiver for over 5 seconds like ours were. And even then 65% is ok because it's a defense that limits the yardage, even after the pass. No CB will be able to hold up with the lack of pass rush we have at DE outside of Abraham.

The pick works position wise, but the value isn't there. You obviously don't seem to understand that everything I've said is constructive. calling me dumb? dude, you don't have any clue about the Falcons defense. I'm trying to help you. The need at CB is for a nickel. You don't draft a nickel. you draft starters. There is not need for a S. If Weatherspoon was healthy all year the LB's would have been better in coverage.

BTW, I didn't say we were great against the pass. I said we weren't terrible. We don't allow the big play and minimize the yards after catch. That's the defensive philosophy. But to say we are terrible is ridiculous. Especially since you are still in the stone age of statistics. I bet you still rate your offensive lines by penalties and sacks allowed.

I write for multiple sites. I'm the Drafttek Analyst for the Falcons. I know every strength and weakness of my favorite team. I also know football and the schemes. I know my stuff. So don't patronize me. The Falcons 1-gap 4-3 defense with a cover 2 coverage shell is based on getting a pass rush from the front 4. The front 4 doesn't get pressure causing the coverage to be stretched to their absolute limit and making the corners look worse than they actually are. And it's still better than they were in 2009. Quit being a clone of all these so calledexpert who think they know about the team, and call CB our biggest need.

**standing ovation**

SRogers92
01-28-2011, 10:51 AM
Jason Babin is going to be 31 going into next season and will look for a big payday. I have a hard time seeing the Titans giving him the contract that he wants, especially since they have Derrick Morgan. Adding Quinn to the mix would be great. He's BPA and will help out the defense from day one.


So - you're essentially saying it's smarter for the Titans to let go of a proven DE who had a career year, than turn around draft the same position? Doesn't make sense to me ... Stephen Tulloch, their leading tackler is thought to be a goner(hopefully to my Lions) so, money should not be an issue ...

Again - they are early mocks, but -- I wouldn't mock the Titans going DE until you know what happens with Babin ...