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View Full Version : Would You Ever Spend a 2nd Round Pick On a QB?


MI_Buckeye
02-08-2011, 10:31 PM
Call me crazy, but I think at least one, maybe two of the four highly-rated QBs are not going in the first round. It stands logically that if Locker, Newton, Mallett or Gabbert fall out of the first round, they will definitely go in the second. My question is why?

See, I view QBs the same way I view prized art pieces. If I am not willing to chew glass and move mountains to get a certain piece, then I do not want to spend quality money (i.e. draft value) on it. If I were, say, the Vikings, and I was not willing to select one of the QBs over some mid-first prospect in the first round, why would I feel comfortable making him the leader of the team a round later. QBs taken in the second round are expected to eventually become the guy anyway, and, given the current NFL environment, are likely to be pressed into action at the first moment of unease at the position. Second round QBs are essentially first round picks anyway in this day and age.

So why would an organization take a chance like this on a guy they did not deem worthy of a first round pick? It does not make sense to me, and I have a feeling some organization like the Cardinals, 49ers, Titans or Vikings are going to have to find a way to justify to their fan base why a guy they were not that high on to begin with is suddenly going to be the guy to lead them to a Super Bowl in a few years.

Matthew Jones
02-08-2011, 10:35 PM
It all comes down to who's the best player available on your board. What if a team like the 49ers has Jake Locker as their #15 player in the draft, but Prince Amukamara is left and they have him at #4? You take Amukamara, but in the second round if Locker is left and the next highest-rated guy is your #30 player, it's an easy decision.

the natural
02-08-2011, 10:45 PM
If QB is a big area of need for you then taking a longer shot on a second round guy is justified for sure. Jimmy Clausen started more than half the Panthers games last season, and Colt McCoy who was a third round pick started about half of Cleveland's. Tim Tebow was the Bronco's second pick of the draft and barely made the first round. Every team carries three QBs, generally, and most of them use a backup at some point during the season. I think if you get a decent backup QB out of a second round pick you've done well. Favre was a second round pick who was traded for a first round pick after a year as a backup. Matt Shaub, Matt Cassell, Matt Hasselbeck are other examples of non first round picks who developed into starters and brought a good return to the team that drafted them.

Brent
02-08-2011, 11:01 PM
well, clearly, the answer is yes, assuming I dont take a QB in the first.

gpngc
02-08-2011, 11:45 PM
Every situation is different every year but I get your point. It coincides with a recent article about this very subject (looked at recent 2nd round QBs, who for the most part, most did not pan out). I suspect you read it also but I don't remember where it was (maybe Rotoworld as stupid as that sounds?).

And I don't view prized art pieces period and you shouldn't either.

PossibleCabbage
02-08-2011, 11:49 PM
I can't categorically rule out taking any position in any round. It's somewhat difficult to justify first round longsnappers, but my out is that Jared Allen was drafted to be a longsnapper.

gpngc
02-08-2011, 11:54 PM
I can't categorically rule out taking any position in any round. It's somewhat difficult to justify first round longsnappers, but my out is that Jared Allen was drafted to be a longsnapper.

Awesome Anecdote is awesome.

Abaddon
02-09-2011, 12:17 AM
I'd definitely take a QB in Rd2. Less pressure to throw the guy to the wolves means more time to groom and develop. Could be the difference between drafting a bust and drafting Aaron Rodgers.

Brent
02-09-2011, 09:57 AM
I don't remember where it was (maybe Rotoworld as stupid as that sounds?).
Our very own Scott Wright wrote it.

TACKLE
02-09-2011, 10:11 AM
Well I think if you're drafting a QB in the first two rounds, you're drafting him with the hope and expectation that he can be your teams future franchise QB. Even if you can get great value on a quarterback in round 2, if you aren't confident that he's the guy you want to lead your team and your franchise, you just can't take him no matter how talented how talented he may be. We saw this in full effect with Jimmy Clausen last year.

Iamcanadian
02-09-2011, 06:27 PM
As Scott has constantly pointed out, only about 6% of round 2 QB's ever pan out and even those that do, resemble a Henne, Miami's QB. That's not to say that a miracle can happen but if your team is staking its future on a round 2 QB, good luck, you'll need it???

Saints-Tigers
02-09-2011, 06:45 PM
Like the OP said, if I don't feel like the guy is superstar material, I don't even want to take him.

I could see myself doing it if I thought teh guy was superstar material, and a franchise QB, and i know for sure no one else is going to jump me and take him in the second.

I think I'm a good talent evaluator, but I don't think I'm so good that I will know a sure fire franchise guy, and no one else will see it.

marks01234
02-09-2011, 08:47 PM
Drew Brees is an example of why you take a QB in the second round. Jake Plummer is another. Matt Schaub was a third round pick. A lot of serviceable QB's were second rounders as well.

What is a desperate franchise going to do if they don't have a first round pick where a possible franchise QB is available? We all know that if you don't have at least a solid QB, you can forget about the playoff's. How long do you think a GM/Coach can survive in the league by signing free agent QB's?

ATLDirtyBirds
02-09-2011, 08:49 PM
Absolutely I would. Especially if I was picking mid-late second round. Look at what people like Kolb and Schaub can fetch via a trade if need be.

nepg
02-09-2011, 09:25 PM
Drew Brees is an example of why you take a QB in the second round. Jake Plummer is another. Matt Schaub was a third round pick. A lot of serviceable QB's were second rounders as well.

What is a desperate franchise going to do if they don't have a first round pick where a possible franchise QB is available? We all know that if you don't have at least a solid QB, you can forget about the playoff's. How long do you think a GM/Coach can survive in the league by signing free agent QB's?
HUGE difference between a 3rd round pick and a 2nd round pick at QB. Especially in the vein of what the topic is about. Also a big difference between Jake Plummer & Drew Brees compared to the 2011 Quartet.

Plummer, Brees, and Schaub were overdrafted. Arizona, San Diego, and Atlanta made aggressive moves by drafting those players. Which is very different from Jimmy Clausen falling to the Panthers.

This topic has come up a couple times this year. You cannot pussyfoot your QB situation. When you're talking about a franchise QB, if you don't believe in that player enough to draft him aggressively then you're better off passing.

This also applies to teams drafting another player then trading back into the first round to get a QB.

Grizzlegom
02-10-2011, 12:15 PM
I'd take a QB in the second or third, absolutely. There will always be examples of successes and failures but of all the recent 2nd round QB 'busts' how many are totally out of the league now? Pat White is the only one that comes to mind and I think everyone but the Dolphins brass considered that a failure from the start. These busts in most cases have at least turned into serviceable backups while most of the 1st round busts are totally out of the league. It all depends on the situations but I have issue taking a QB anywhere in the draft as long as you develop them at the correct pace.

Halsey
02-10-2011, 03:17 PM
I bascially agree with what I think the thread author is saying. If a team needs a starting QB, and they feel a certain prospect can be that for them, isn't he worth a first rounder. If they don't think a guy is going to be a franchise QB for them, why take him in the second round.

thenewfeature06
02-10-2011, 03:51 PM
I actually hope that one of the 4 falls to Oakland in round 2.

Newton and Gabbert will probably be the first guys taken it seems but alot of teams don't have a long term answer at QB.

marks01234
02-10-2011, 07:09 PM
HUGE difference between a 3rd round pick and a 2nd round pick at QB. Especially in the vein of what the topic is about. Also a big difference between Jake Plummer & Drew Brees compared to the 2011 Quartet.

Plummer, Brees, and Schaub were overdrafted. Arizona, San Diego, and Atlanta made aggressive moves by drafting those players. Which is very different from Jimmy Clausen falling to the Panthers.

This topic has come up a couple times this year. You cannot pussyfoot your QB situation. When you're talking about a franchise QB, if you don't believe in that player enough to draft him aggressively then you're better off passing.

This also applies to teams drafting another player then trading back into the first round to get a QB.

Agressively drafting a player - this is a new one.

Was Aaron Rodgers an agressively drafted player?

The entire notion that you need to go for a undispited franchise QB or dig through the bottom of the barrell searching for Tom Brady is completely false. A lot of these mid first day QB's turn into serviceable starters with a couple becoming more than that.

You guys are taking a few isolated situations and applying to the future. Brett Farve was a second round pick for goodness sake. And he doesn't fit your "agressive" criteria either.

ViperVisor
02-10-2011, 07:14 PM
Depends.

Like the hypothetical someone asked on a board Would you take a K #1? if you knew he would make 90% of kicks at 60 yards.

I definitely would.

Bucs_Rule
02-11-2011, 12:29 PM
There just aren't enough 1st round QBs to satisfy all the teams that need a QB.

SRK85
02-11-2011, 01:16 PM
Sure I think that Jake Locker and Christian Ponder will be second round picks.

WCH
02-11-2011, 01:48 PM
Here are the guys drafted in the second round from 1980-2009:

Neal Lomax
Oliver Luck
Matt Kofler
Boomer Esiason
Randall Cunningham
Jack Trudeau
Mike Elkins
Billy Joe Tolliver
Brett Favre
Browning Nagle
Matt Blundin
Tony Sacca
Todd Collins
Kordell Stewart
Tony Banks
Jake Plummer
Charlie Batch
Shaun King
Drew Brees
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasosopo
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Kevin Kolb
John Beck
Drew Stanton
Brian Brohm
Chad Henne
Pat White

From that list, it sure looks to me like you have a chance at a consistent starter, but even if you don't, you have a better than 50% chance at having a guy who can be a serviceable backup. I'm sure that the Lions were glad to have Drew Stanton when they needed him this season.

Scott's always banging the drum that first round Quarterbacks give you the best chance at landing a franchise QB, and he's right. But if you need a QB (as a starter, or even as a backup) then you shouldn't be afraid of the second round guys.

nepg
02-13-2011, 02:38 PM
Agressively drafting a player - this is a new one.

Was Aaron Rodgers an agressively drafted player?

The entire notion that you need to go for a undispited franchise QB or dig through the bottom of the barrell searching for Tom Brady is completely false. A lot of these mid first day QB's turn into serviceable starters with a couple becoming more than that.

You guys are taking a few isolated situations and applying to the future. Brett Farve was a second round pick for goodness sake. And he doesn't fit your "agressive" criteria either.
What "isolated" situations? Aaron Rodgers was slightly aggressive from GB's perspective because they really didn't need a QB. One of the very few instances of a guy just falling into a team's lap. But also a much different situation than any other in that he ******* sat on the bench for 3 years.

Your Aaron Rodgers example is an "isolated situation".

When you draft a player in the first 3 rounds, you want that player to be a quality starter sooner than later. Unless your team is just loaded, you don't ever draft back-up players in the first two rounds. You never draft a QB earlier than Round 4 hoping that he becomes a decent backup. That's just the bottom line.

MidwayMonster31
02-13-2011, 03:00 PM
For every other position, there is more than one spot on the field for that player. For a quarterback, that is not the case. It is the most important player on the field, so you can't **** around with it. That doesn't mean you should reach, but know your coaching staff and prospects.

MI_Buckeye
02-13-2011, 03:00 PM
What "isolated" situations? Aaron Rodgers was slightly aggressive from GB's perspective because they really didn't need a QB. One of the very few instances of a guy just falling into a team's lap. But also a much different situation than any other in that he ******* sat on the bench for 3 years.

Your Aaron Rodgers example is an "isolated situation".

When you draft a player in the first 3 rounds, you want that player to be a quality starter sooner than later. Unless your team is just loaded, you don't ever draft back-up players in the first two rounds. You never draft a QB earlier than Round 4 hoping that he becomes a decent backup. That's just the bottom line.

Also, I think Rodgers fell mainly because so many other Tedford proteges (Akili Smith, Dilfer, Carr, Harrington, Boller) had already flamed out or were clearly in the process of flaming out. Scouts overscrutinized him because of this, and he was looked at as a system QB with phony production. Funny thing is, he was jumped by the ultimate system QB with phony production in Alex Smith.

princefielder28
02-13-2011, 03:04 PM
If I'm a team like San Fran I'd much rather take the BPA in round one and select Ricky Stanzi in round two than waste a high pick on a project like Gabbert or Newton at 7.

BeerBaron
02-13-2011, 03:09 PM
If I'm a team like San Fran I'd much rather take the BPA in round one and select Ricky Stanzi in round two than waste a high pick on a project like Gabbert or Newton at 7.

I've long thought that when you need a QB, you can throw BPA out the window. Overdraft a QB you like if you have to...let's say they don't really like any of the first round QBs...fine, I can see how that might be the case. But if they like someone later, like Stanzi, they may have to overdraft him.

Obviously, I don't mean take him at #7, but trade up in the 2nd round to make damn sure you get him. Because if you pass on all the QBs once because you like a guy a little later on, and someone else beats you to that guy.....you very well may have just screwed your franchise for years to come.

You'll have to settle for someone lesser, throwing off all your plans...and if you invest a 2nd or 3rd round pick in that guy (someone like Clausen for example,) you may feel compelled to pass on better QBs in the future because of your investment in him.

My philosophy is that if you take a QB, you better be absolutely in love with him as a player. And if you're not, pass on him. And if you like a guy who'll be available later, overdraft him. Maybe it's a reach at the time but in Stanzi becomes the next Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, no one will remember it.