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View Full Version : Thoughts on Baylor OG Danny Watkins?


LonghornsLegend
02-12-2011, 12:52 AM
I see some people knocking his age which maybe would be a consideration if he's a 1st round pick but other then that it wouldn't be a concern for me. He plays Guard, not WR. You could get 8 good years out of him as a starter potentially which is fine for a mid round pick. I got to see a bunch of Baylor games and he's got all the tools to be a very good starter on the inside.


He's strong enough to not get blown back, but I really like his potential when it comes to things like pass-blocking, and being a pulling guard. He's a superb athlete who is a former TE, hard worker, and it didn't take him long to turn into a really good Guard for Baylor even though everything was brand new to him.


He's definately not as polished, or dominant right now then somebody like Iupati, but I think he offers alot of upside even with his age. I have him going somewhere in the first 10 picks of the 2nd round. I'm hoping Dallas can do a slight trade back for an extra 1st because he seems like he'd fit our system well.



Wanting to hear some thoughts about him from other people. I don't think 1st round is very realistic but I'd be surprised if he was still there in the 3rd.

brasho
02-12-2011, 07:34 AM
You can't get 8 years out of him. He's overaged and at his physical peak. He is sooo much better than those he has played against because he is at his strongest and fastest while those he's facing are still 6-7 years from reaching physical maturity. His age is a HUGE factor and anybody that does not see it hasn't put any thought into it.

He's fine with me, as a 5th round pick. He will not be getting much better, he may refine his technique a little here and there but what you draft is what you get... he won't be improving very much.

Scott Wright
02-12-2011, 07:39 AM
I disagree that Watkins is at his physical peak. In fact, he may actually be behind many top prospects because he hasn't been on a football weight-training plan since the 9th grade like Da'Quan Bowers or someone like that has. Also, Watkins really isn't much older than a BYU prospect who goes on a mission for two-years. I think a team can get eight quality years out of Watkins, and that is a hell of a lot more than many teams get out of first round picks.

LonghornsLegend
02-12-2011, 11:00 AM
You can't get 8 years out of him. He's overaged and at his physical peak. He is sooo much better than those he has played against because he is at his strongest and fastest while those he's facing are still 6-7 years from reaching physical maturity. His age is a HUGE factor and anybody that does not see it hasn't put any thought into it.

He's fine with me, as a 5th round pick. He will not be getting much better, he may refine his technique a little here and there but what you draft is what you get... he won't be improving very much.


Just because your old doesn't mean your stronger and faster then everyone, not sure I'm following what your saying here. I don't think you've watched him much if you don't think he's gonna improve, nor understand that he's only been playing football for 4 years, some of that time spent learning to play TE.



I mean he was playing LT at Baylor anyway, so he's still got to be coached up to play Guard yet at the Senior Bowl people were calling him a natural. I find it hard to believe you honestly think he's at his strongest and fastest he's gonna be when he hasn't even been in a conditioning program that long. Guards can play well into their 30's without batting an eye, not sure why it'd be any different for him.

P-L
02-12-2011, 11:04 AM
Watkins is probably the best guard in the draft, but may not be the first one off the board due to his age. I don't think any team will take him in the first round, but early 2nd round is his likely landing spot in my opinion.

brasho
02-12-2011, 11:48 AM
I disagree that Watkins is at his physical peak. In fact, he may actually be behind many top prospects because he hasn't been on a football weight-training plan since the 9th grade like Da'Quan Bowers or someone like that has. Also, Watkins really isn't much older than a BYU prospect who goes on a mission for two-years. I think a team can get eight quality years out of Watkins, and that is a hell of a lot more than many teams get out of first round picks.

Really? A BYU prospect usually comes out of college at 24 (which is still quite a bit less than 27) ... and I'm trying to remember a few on the O or D lines that ever lived up to their press clippings. Shawn Knight, Jason Buck, Mo Elowonibi, John Tait... I can't think of one that proved to be exceptional in the NFL.

The folks at profootballreference have probably put in a ton more time looking into this topic than the majority of front offices in the NFL and according to their numbers... I beg to differ whole-heartedly.

These are their numbers regarding when an OL reaches his peak of playing based on a myriad of factors. According to PFR, an OLineman reaches his peak when he is 27-28 and then it's all downhill from there. Now I suppose a guy that has just started football and hasn't taken the punishment could be of value for longer because his football age is less.... however, due to gradually decreasing levels of testosterone and human growth hormone around the age of 30 that occurs for EVERYBODY, there comes a time where the physical peak has nothing to do with football age and solely to do with chronological age.

Age PctOfPeak
============
21 => 0.48
22 => 0.48
23 => 0.57
24 => 0.81
25 => 0.93
26 => 0.97
27 => 1.00
28 => 1.00
29 => 0.97
30 => 0.91
31 => 0.90
32 => 0.88
33 => 0.78
34 => 0.76
35 => 0.77
36 => 0.63
37 => 0.62

brasho
02-12-2011, 12:00 PM
Just because your old doesn't mean your stronger and faster then everyone, not sure I'm following what your saying here. I don't think you've watched him much if you don't think he's gonna improve, nor understand that he's only been playing football for 4 years, some of that time spent learning to play TE.

.

Obviously you know what YOU'RE talking about here because you've spent 17+ years in a gym steadily working out (with 10+ of those years as a sport specific personal trainer)... oh wait, that's me.

I am old for a football player, 37. But I will tell you this... when I 23 and was playing in college my weight was 165 and I was running in the mid to low 4.6's and benching 225 in the 14-17 range (with 17 being my best). A mere 5 years later I was 185 lbs, ran routinely ran 4.50's (as well as had atletes that I trained and routinely beat running sub 4.5's for college scouts) and was benching 225 in the 21-24 rep range. I was in my physical peak and was a much better athlete than I was when I was 22-23.

Don't tell me that I don't know what I'm talking about here, increasing the limits of the human body has only been a huge part of my life the past 15+ years. The older a person gets, the more their bodies mature and that compounded with more time in the gym and the maturity factor only serves to make that person bigger, stronger, and faster... but that's only if the person is still playing the sport and training avidly. Of course most of the couch potatoes and weekend warriors will suffer a steep decline because their daily activity levels decline steeply as well.

Danny Watkins is at or near his athletic prime. He will not be getting much bigger, stronger, faster. Case in point, since 28 I have continously tortured myself in the gym... increased muscle mass since I was 28 and weighed 185, have lost body fat since then and still gotten my weight to 195 and yet my reps of 225 have only gone from 21-24 to 23-27 (with 27 being my best 3 years ago)... and I'm likely only running 4.65 at my absolute best ... which I suppose can be expected because I'm 37 and my physical peak was 7-10 years ago.

This is why in pro and natural bodybuilding they have open weightclasses and masters weightclasses and this is also why the masters (40+) routinely win the overalls because they have had that much more time in the gym to get bigger, add more muscle, and get better.

brasho
02-12-2011, 12:06 PM
Watkins is probably the best guard in the draft, but may not be the first one off the board due to his age. I don't think any team will take him in the first round, but early 2nd round is his likely landing spot in my opinion.

He probably is the best OG, just like Davin Joseph or Chris Kemoeatu would be if they were still playing in college as the 27 year olds that they are. His age will force him to drop... the big attraction here with NFL scouts is that Watkins will be more physically ready to play right now than guys 21-23. Of course Watkins will likely only be around for one contract, because by the time his first 4 year deal runs out he'll be 31... and after that at most he'll be signing 2 year deals.

D-Unit
02-12-2011, 12:16 PM
2nd rounder. ...because he is, I'd rather go another direction. I'd take him in the 3rd but would love him in the 4th.

Buffalo M
02-12-2011, 01:06 PM
He sure looked good at the Senior Bowl practices in pass blocking drills. No one could beat him. Solid technique.

Who cares about his age ? He could be good for 8-10 years.

D-Unit
02-12-2011, 01:43 PM
He sure looked good at the Senior Bowl practices in pass blocking drills. No one could beat him. Solid technique.

Who cares about his age ? He could be good for 8-10 years.

Didn't Cam Jordan beat him ?

TACKLE
02-12-2011, 04:07 PM
2nd rounder. ...because he is, I'd rather go another direction. I'd take him in the 3rd but would love him in the 4th.

Yes, I'm sure anyone would love to get a high second/fringe first round prospect in the 4th round.

A Perfect Score
02-12-2011, 04:07 PM
Didn't Cam Jordan beat him ?

Cam Jordan beat everybody.

D-Unit
02-12-2011, 08:59 PM
Yes, I'm sure anyone would love to get a high second/fringe first round prospect in the 4th round.
Fringe 1st rounder? Good grief. What a reach that would be. I hope some idiotic team does that! Go GO GO!!!!

Matthew Jones
02-12-2011, 09:07 PM
Fringe 1st rounder? Good grief. What a reach that would be. I hope some idiotic team does that! Go GO GO!!!!

Not as big of a reach as you'd think. I absolutely think he's up there with any other guard in the class. Who a team chooses may depend on what they're looking for, but I think Watkins is going to be a very solid member of an offensive line in the NFL sooner than most other prospects in this class.

D-Unit
02-12-2011, 09:10 PM
Not as big of a reach as you'd think. I absolutely think he's up there with any other guard in the class. Who a team chooses may depend on what they're looking for, but I think Watkins is going to be a very solid member of an offensive line in the NFL sooner than most other prospects in this class.
Go! Go! Go! Drive that hype train, baby!!!!

1st round, watch out! Here comes Danny Watkins!!! Woooo!!!!!

TACKLE
02-12-2011, 09:31 PM
Fringe 1st rounder? Good grief. What a reach that would be. I hope some idiotic team does that! Go GO GO!!!!

Well both Wes Bunting and Todd McShay have Watkins in the first round of their most recent mocks so "fringe first rounder" is appropriate at this point. He had an excellent senior season at Baylor, was the best offensive lineman all week at Senior Bowl and is arguably the top guard prospect in the whole draft. Don't know what you're getting all worked up about.

RaiderNation
02-12-2011, 10:19 PM
I think his stock is around the early 3rd, maybe late 2nd if a team falls in love with him. Never going to be a elite Guard, but I see him as a starting guard atleast.

My brother actually got the chance to play with him at Butte Community College in 2008 I believe. He told me that he was by far the best player on that team, and is very athletic for a guy his size

D-Unit
02-12-2011, 10:20 PM
Well both Wes Bunting and Todd McShay have Watkins in the first round of their most recent mocks so "fringe first rounder" is appropriate at this point. He had an excellent senior season at Baylor, was the best offensive lineman all week at Senior Bowl and is arguably the top guard prospect in the whole draft. Don't know what you're getting all worked up about.
Oh I hope it happens, trust me! :D

The bandwagon is way ahead of where I thought it was. Woohooo!!!

cajuncorey
02-12-2011, 11:01 PM
Drafted to the CFL. someone better grab him before he takes his talents north of the border

gpngc
02-13-2011, 12:37 AM
Indy Colts.

brasho
02-13-2011, 06:04 AM
Not as big of a reach as you'd think. I absolutely think he's up there with any other guard in the class. Who a team chooses may depend on what they're looking for, but I think Watkins is going to be a very solid member of an offensive line in the NFL sooner than most other prospects in this class.

Of course he will be, physically he is just entering his prime. He is way ahead of the other prospects in terms of physical readiness and his maturity is way beyond. But that''s the trade-off. Do you want a guy that can step in and play right away that has very little upside or do you want a guy that might be able to help you right away that has far more upside?

I mean, there's no way this guy sits on the bench for 2-3 years AND THEN earns a job... he'd be 30 years old then. It's now or never... but why waste a higher draft pick on a guy that is comparable to a 2nd or 3rd tier unrestricted free agent?

brasho
02-13-2011, 06:05 AM
Who cares about his age ? He could be good for 8-10 years.

Who cares? NFL teams that are looking for a return on their investment, that's who.

8-10 years? Yeah, right because 37 year old OGs in the NFL is the norm and not at all rare.