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Scott Wright
02-16-2011, 01:29 AM
I just made my fifth mock draft of the year, the first post-Senior Bowl, live!

2011 Mock Draft - v.5.0
http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php

As always constructive criticism is not only welcomed but encouraged. However, please be sure to explain the reasoning behind your opinions just like I do in the mock or risk being infracted.

Let's keep this thread fun and informative!

Now... FIRE AWAY! :)

Bengals78
02-16-2011, 01:39 AM
Im gonna need one of these:


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iN6_nIJQcbM/TVACSyo_YjI/AAAAAAAAFi8/3SqGzmbQeIg/s1600/noose.jpg

Flyboy
02-16-2011, 01:43 AM
No Ryan Mallett in the first round... not that I can't see it happening, but still very interesting.

BigBanger
02-16-2011, 01:44 AM
Im gonna need one of these:


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iN6_nIJQcbM/TVACSyo_YjI/AAAAAAAAFi8/3SqGzmbQeIg/s1600/noose.jpg

Oddly enough, Newton is the perfect fit. He has a criminal record. He's a high profile player. Raw with a ton of potential. QB position is in flux... it all adds up. If he gets a gun charge between now and the draft I think Newton to the Bengals would be a lock. They may even trade up to get him.

703SKINS202
02-16-2011, 01:49 AM
Skins pick is epic. I'd buy my jersey in .003 seconds if that happened.

49erNation85
02-16-2011, 01:55 AM
Quinn over Green,Fairley, and Amukura for SF?I think any those players would be a better fit then OLB in the first round.Besides Crabtree and Morgon we have no true number WR.Green would be a good competition for Crabs to elevate his game more.Could always use more depth at DT but being at the 3-4 not a need just more depth and Amukura would be a better as CB is our biggest need other then QB!Nice mock other wise tho from you guys.April is so far away grr!

akvikefan89
02-16-2011, 02:12 AM
Like the Vikings pick, assuming they can pick up a guy like Orton in FA.

prock
02-16-2011, 02:32 AM
I am struggling to envision a scenario in which AJ Green could realistically fall to 10, but who knows, receivers tend to drop sometimes, I guess...

Incogneetus69
02-16-2011, 02:36 AM
Dareus going over Fairley? They both have question marks but Fairley is way more active. Plus I think the Bills go after Cam.

And the Browns need AJ Green hard.

The Cowboys would trade down for a tackle IMO rather than a JAG 5 technique at 9. They are also drooling over Peterson so dont be surprised if theres a trade up if hes there around 6 or 7.

TheMorningZoo
02-16-2011, 02:55 AM
In all honesty I am not really a fan of the San Diego pick. Akeem Ayers will flash at the combine, but he is not a playmaker, and is very soft. I have watched tape, and he doesn't tackle that well, doesn't play aggressive, and is not real "tough". I think he is a better fit in the 4-3 at this point than the 3-4, because opposing OT's will maul him to death.

I would much rather have a player like Justin Houston, a potential 5 tech, or OT (granted AJ Smith doesn't ever take OL in round 1). Also a darkhorse would be a Corner, as the whole "Jammer to Safety" thing is brought up a decent amount

proshoota25
02-16-2011, 03:31 AM
love the patriots mock

Caulibflower
02-16-2011, 04:32 AM
In all honesty I am not really a fan of the San Diego pick. Akeem Ayers will flash at the combine, but he is not a playmaker, and is very soft. I have watched tape, and he doesn't tackle that well, doesn't play aggressive, and is not real "tough". I think he is a better fit in the 4-3 at this point than the 3-4, because opposing OT's will maul him to death.

That's exactly the impression I hold of him. He looks like a great athlete, but the NFL is just so much more physical than what he's had to deal with in college that I don't know if he'll be able to be an impact player. I really, really tend to shy away from linebackers who can be described as "finesse" players. Akeem Ayers looks like a finesse player to me. There isn't really any violence to his game.

Falconguru
02-16-2011, 04:44 AM
Allen Bailey again to the Falcon's,yuck. A pure speed rusher is needed not a tweener. Bailey will put good workout stats up but putting pressure on the QB is the biggest need not another tweener. The Falcon's learned with Jamaal Anderson not to go for the tweeners again. Many other players with higher upside than Bailey at pick 27. While def end is the biggest need I hope Dimitroff doesn't overreach for a tweener. Receiver, off line,linebacker if any player rates higher than Bailey I could see that being the pick.

Why wouldn't Torrey Smith be a good pick for the Falcon's? I would even take Kyle Rudolph over Bailey even though Gonazlez is coming back.

king2am
02-16-2011, 04:47 AM
Quinn over Green,Fairley, and Amukura for SF?I think any those players would be a better fit then OLB in the first round.Besides Crabtree and Morgon we have no true number WR.Green would be a good competition for Crabs to elevate his game more.Could always use more depth at DT but being at the 3-4 not a need just more depth and Amukura would be a better as CB is our biggest need other then QB!Nice mock other wise tho from you guys.April is so far away grr!

Please stop.

Just think to yourself about all of the great 3-4 teams in the league, what do they have?

An elite pass rusher, sometimes two! If Robert Quinn, through this evaluation process, is able to show that he is that kind of player, then this is an amazing pick. I personally have Amukamara ahead of him, but it wouldnt break my heart.

We desperately need a pass rushing force on the edge, just as badly as we need a presence in the secondary.

No true #1? Crabtree was in his second year, in a crappy offense for his talents. Depth at DT? What? Marcell Dareus and Nick Fairley would both be ends in the 3-4...

brasho
02-16-2011, 05:07 AM
As a Bucs fan, Smith is exactly who I would hope for... but I completely disagree about the need for an OLB... and even if they did need one, Akeem Ayers does not come close to fitting the T-2 bill. True, most likely Barrett Ruud will be allowed to leave but the replacement is already on the roster in either Quincy Black or Tyrone McKenzie. They really like Dekoda Watson as well and he would move to Sam if Black went to Mike. The need for an OLB early is severly overstated.

ATLDirtyBirds
02-16-2011, 05:25 AM
Allen Bailey? No thanks. We need someone who can make an impact right away. Not someone who has to come into the NFL and develop some pass rushing skills.

Halsey
02-16-2011, 05:31 AM
What's the reason for Bailey to Atlanta over Heyward? What little I know about them makes me lean toward Heyward.

On a side note, the Falcons look like a team that might be tempted to trade up for a DE.

regoob2
02-16-2011, 06:23 AM
I dont like the Bears pick. Carimi to me is a one position player. RT. Our only young O linemen with potential are both OTs. Williams at LT and Webb at RT. Webb was our best OT at the end of the regular season and post season. Give me Ijalana/Cannon.

Brent
02-16-2011, 06:38 AM
I like Quinn a lot, but I worry about that year off.

Hines
02-16-2011, 07:19 AM
Sad that Jimmy Smith just HAS to go to Baltimore because I want him in Pittsburgh very, very, very bad.

As for the Steelers pick, I can dig it.

Wavy77
02-16-2011, 07:29 AM
I think I'd like Sherrod better than Carimi at 29, but that's mainly because he can play left tackle.

DallCowby1
02-16-2011, 07:59 AM
Cowboys taking Watt at #9? I can't see them taking a 3-4 DE with that pick.
The CB or a trade down and that's to pick up another pick and then draft a O-Lineman. That's my opinion as of now....

As always Scott, Nice work on the mock. Get a look at who is fallin and who is rising on the board. I know things will change when players get done with the combine and there own workouts.

rawdawg
02-16-2011, 08:00 AM
I dont like the Bears pick. Carimi to me is a one position player. RT. Our only young O linemen with potential are both OTs. Williams at LT and Webb at RT. Webb was our best OT at the end of the regular season and post season. Give me Ijalana/Cannon.

I think Carimi can play LT in the NFL. He certainly looked the part in Sr. Bowl practice. He's tough to get around with his size and long arms. And you aren't going to get thru him.

That being said, the issue I take is that Omiyale and Webb should not be NFL starters. Webb should not have been thrust into 12 starts this year, but I think he greatly improved down the stretch and the Bears aren't just going to throw a 23-year old on the bench so they can start another unproven commodity at OT. Also, Frank Omiyale was fine as a run blocker, where the Bears averaged over 5 yards per carry to and outside of LT this year. And that included Chester Taylor's 1.8 ypc. Seems like a better fit on the right side.

Now, I wouldn't cry if Omiyale is benched. And I actually like Carimi and would be fine with that pick. But the Bears also have Chris Williams who is just 25 and was the 14th pick. He has only started and finished 5 games at the LT position he was drafted to play. I think the Bears have to give him a real shot in camp at OT, because he's clearly not a guard.

I still think the Bears need interior OL more (Kreutz a 34-year old FA, Garza 32, Williams played LG out of position). And with their needs at DT, S (if Manning leaves), LB depth, and WR....I think they interior OL and stick w/ the young tackles with upside.

Don Vito
02-16-2011, 08:31 AM
As a Pats fan, I just want to say thank you. Kerrigan and Heyward would be awesome.

Brodeur
02-16-2011, 08:36 AM
Absolutely horrible Lions pick. Backus is a great left tackle, and with Gos improving on the right side the Lions DO NOT NEED A TACKLE.

fear the elf
02-16-2011, 08:37 AM
Honestly, I'm not a fan of the Browns' pick. I think we have to go with AJ Green or Julio Jones in the 1st for the same reasons you gave for the Rams' pick:

Besides, with the long-term future of the franchise riding on young quarterback Sam Bradford it only makes sense to provide him with some weapons to throw to.

DiG
02-16-2011, 08:38 AM
aj green to the skins makes me all kinds of excited. dream scenario.

Grizzlegom
02-16-2011, 09:03 AM
Can't go wrong with that Phins pick but I whole-heartedly disagree about the Phins potentially taking an OLB early in the draft as an alternative. Wake was a top 5 34OLB last year and Misi was a thumper against the run and improved his pass rushing as the season progressed. We need depth, absolutely, but we have more active pass rushing DEs than most 34 teams and have too many needs on offense to take a luxury-pick on D.

Razor
02-16-2011, 09:03 AM
Great Pats draft!

http://clydetombaugh.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/02/17/homerwoohoo.jpg

xooberon
02-16-2011, 09:14 AM
Don't like the idea of taking Bowers, DT is a way bigger need than DE right now. We have such little talent there (Andre Neblett played well but he's nowhere near ready to start) that we have to take Fairley. I think we're pretty well set at DE, CJ was one of the best LE's in the league last year, Hardy showed alot of promise and even Everette Brown started to come around. We also have Norwood who showed some potential in the very small playing time that he got. We desperately need an interior pass rusher to help those guys out.

thebow305
02-16-2011, 09:19 AM
Can't go wrong with that Phins pick but I whole-heartedly disagree about the Phins potentially taking an OLB early in the draft as an alternative. Wake was a top 5 34OLB last year and Misi was a thumper against the run and improved his pass rushing as the season progressed. We need depth, absolutely, but we have more active pass rushing DEs than most 34 teams and have too many needs on offense to take a luxury-pick on D.

This. Couldn't have said it better myself.


Also, I'm glad that people are starting to join me in the Tyron Smith #1 OT discussion. I've felt for a while now he's the top OT available. It's nice to see I'm not the only one.

And lastly, I really don't understand the Bowers to Carolina pick. Charles Johnson was REALLY good last year. And they have two young, very talented ends competing at the other spot with Everette Brown and Greg Hardy. I can't even name two starters at DT for them last year. Their run D was AWFUL last year. Fairley makes the most sense there. A.J. Green would be next up, and could be a real possibility if Steve Smith is finally dealt this offseason like I've seen in rumors.

Splat
02-16-2011, 09:23 AM
For the first time in years the Chiefs don't have a HUGE need they have needs sure but they can afford to take BPA so I would be fine with the pick.

Scott Wright
02-16-2011, 09:25 AM
Can't go wrong with that Phins pick but I whole-heartedly disagree about the Phins potentially taking an OLB early in the draft as an alternative. Wake was a top 5 34OLB last year and Misi was a thumper against the run and improved his pass rushing as the season progressed. We need depth, absolutely, but we have more active pass rushing DEs than most 34 teams and have too many needs on offense to take a luxury-pick on D.

I tend to agree on the Dolphins and their lack of need at outside linebacker, but word I've gotten from sources is that's a position they want to address in the offseason. We shall see...

Spectre
02-16-2011, 09:25 AM
I can't see the Browns passing on Green for Fairley. Yes, DT is a big need but I think the character concerns would sway our pick away from him. Fairley, as you said, has "concerns about his maturity and work ethic", yet that's the exact reason we cut Shaun Rogers. Our GM even came out and spoke about it. I'm not sure why we'd bring another guy like that in after getting rid of Rogers for the exact same reason.

Yes, MoMass and Robiskie were 2nd round picks recently but they were a) Mangini picks (and you can see how much love Heckert has for Mangini's guys) and b) neither is a real playmaker or profiles as a #1 receiver. The whole reason we need to add a #1 is because it adds a legitimate threat to the team and gives MoMass and Robo more favorable matchups.

For those reasons, I just really don't like the pick.

CJSchneider
02-16-2011, 09:39 AM
No change to the Saints selection is a good thing. I like Paea as the pick. Any chance Drake Nevis could find his way up to the first round?

bitonti
02-16-2011, 09:40 AM
im probably going to debate Shane about this on the podcast friday night but if the mock draft doesn't have certainty at the 1 pick it's very hard to do accurately.

I don't think there is a defender worth that pick, like when Mario Williams or Jake Long went 1. Da'Quan Bowers had knee surgery... not major but will he workout?

in fact if there is a high upside prototype this year it's Cam Newton. Scott I told you this at Mobile, there's still room on the bandwagon buddy!

actually a really good job overall it's alot easier to bash these things than to make them.

PossibleCabbage
02-16-2011, 09:41 AM
I don't really get it. I watched a lot of Chiefs games this year, and I don't understand taking a LTO at all. This was a team that was just about average in pass protection (18th by DVOA) and was 6th in the league at run blocking (by DVOA). If they need any help on the OL, it's inside, not at left tackle.

If you had given them a guy like Carimi, who can play guard or right tackle (or even the lesser Pouncey), then I would understand. But I don't think Castonzo really fits in a power-running scheme.

Also, why is Sam Shields coming in as an undrafted rookie and playing well a testament to the lack of depth in the Green Bay secondary? Ignore the fact that he was an undrafted rookie for a minute, Sam Shields played really, really well this year. He wasn't the #3 CB by default at all. If you were to redo the 2010 draft, Shields would go ahead of three of the five first round corners that year. You don't end up as the #1 rated pass defense with a rookie nickel back (who actually lined up as the #2 a lot) if he's not actually playing well. I'm not actually convinced that Aaron Williams could beat out Sam Shields next year, so why do you draft your #4 CB in the first round?

scottyboy
02-16-2011, 09:41 AM
i like liguet and what I've read about him, and if Cofield goes the Giants could really use another DT but at 19 I think we're in prime position to grab an OT and try and grab a guy like Nevis or Ballard (who I'm very high on) in round 2. am I in the wrong with value here Scott? Would an OT be a reach at 19? and am I just dreaming that Nevis or Ballard could fall to pick 19 in round 2?

Splat
02-16-2011, 09:46 AM
I don't really get it. I watched a lot of Chiefs games this year, and I don't understand taking a LTO at all. This was a team that was just about average in pass protection (18th by DVOA) and was 6th in the league at run blocking (by DVOA). If they need any help on the OL, it's inside, not at left tackle.

He would play RT for the Chiefs and they are more then fine at OG, they could get younger at C but it's not a first round need.

PossibleCabbage
02-16-2011, 09:50 AM
He would play RT for the Chiefs and they are more then fine at OG, they could get younger at C but it's not a first round need.

If you need an RT, why do you take all 305 lbs of Anthony Castonzo whose "frame appears maxed out" and who "Is not overly stout at the point of attack", "Narrow base and struggles to anchor / sustain", and "isn't a powerful, road grading run blocker".

Castonzo at LT is fine in a couple of years, I don't like Castonzo at RT.

A Perfect Score
02-16-2011, 09:54 AM
I'd be ecstatic if the Ravens came away with Jimmy Smith, Im a huge fan of his and I firmly believe CB is our #1 need, unlike alot of other Ravens fans.

Splat
02-16-2011, 09:57 AM
I never said they need a RT I said that is what he would play, and the Chiefs don't have a power running game they are a zone blocking team.

All the Chiefs starting OL men (outside of Waters) are either a little over or under 300 pounds.

PossibleCabbage
02-16-2011, 10:03 AM
I never said they need a RT I said that is what he would play, and the Chiefs don't have a power running game they are a zone blocking team.

All the Chiefs starting OL men (outside of Waters) are either a little over or under 300 pounds.


"Zone blocking" and "power running" are not mutually exclusive. The Wisconsin Badgers and Iowa Hawkeyes are zone blocking, power running teams for example.

The mutually exclusive alternative to "zone blocking" is "man blocking" not "power running."

ElectricEye
02-16-2011, 10:20 AM
Nothing not to like there for the Patriots.

raynman
02-16-2011, 10:29 AM
Panthers won't go DE for the first pick. they feel good about their DEs, despite the lack of sacks and QB pressures last year. problem wasn't the DEs, it was the DT. they got no interior push. it was weak all year and has been weak since they traded jenkins away and kemo got hurt. adding bowers wouldn't help. much more likely they go after fairley or even dareus.

also, CB will be a bigger need as well than DE. they will most definitely be losing richard marshall and that pretty much leaves gamble (who lost his mojo according to rivera who said he was going to try and help him get it back) and captain munnerlynn. they will have to address CB. peterson will also be the pick before bowers is.

i would even say they might take a chance on newton if he impresses. i have heard that he is one of the guys on the short list they are strongly considering with that first pick. you are right in having newton be the first QB off the board and that he won't make it out of the top 5, but he could actually be the #1 overall. too much attention is paid to rivera being a defensive head coach in this draft. he has said that the defense is essentially in good shape with the exception of DT. he is focusing most of his attention on improving the offense of which, according to rivera, QB and TE is the priority. marty hurney has also said the most important thing is improving at QB.

some say they might address it with a stop gap QB and work with what they have. this is a team that realizes that the game is changing and that they have largely neglected the QB position while fox was here. they see the QB talent in the division and realize they are well behind. while they did say they were going to give clausen a shot, they said they were going to bring in competition. if luck was in the draft they would have for sure drafted him. just because he isn't doesn't mean they won't draft a QB then if they think the upside is high enough and have enough faith on the coaching staff to make sure he's ready. only QB worth using a #1 or even top 5 pick on is newton.

also, bowers might not even be going to the combine due to him having surgery after the season...not sure how he's going to pull off the #1 like that. imo, you and too many other people pay too much attention to the peppers pick in '02 and bowers being local. anytime i see someone pick bowers i see it as a lazy pick by someone who hasn't actually done their research on what the team actually needs. better luck next time.

JRTPlaya21
02-16-2011, 10:40 AM
Skins pick is epic. I'd buy my jersey in .003 seconds if that happened.

I'd have mine in a faster time. Trust me.

raynman
02-16-2011, 10:41 AM
green won't last that long.

SenorGato
02-16-2011, 10:42 AM
If the Pats picked Heyward two picks before us AND the Jets drafted Houston I think I'd cry...literally cry...I'm crying right now...

coordinator0
02-16-2011, 11:10 AM
I'd be ecstatic if the Ravens came away with Jimmy Smith, Im a huge fan of his and I firmly believe CB is our #1 need, unlike alot of other Ravens fans.

I would consider a #1 corner perhaps our biggest need, but not just a corner in general.

Smith is a very good pick, I could also see Houston or one of the DE's like Scott mentioned as well.

AkiliSmith
02-16-2011, 11:17 AM
Probably the worst Bengals pick possible. If you believe the rumors, Marvin is now fully in charge of player personnel. He will not take the risks with character that Mike Brown did.

If Palmer is gone, Newton will not be able to step in right away to play. He needs to sit on the bench and learn how an NFL offense with more than 1 read works. If there is not 2011 season, or even a long lockout until the season starts, Newton will be even further behind. So who are they going to start until he learns? They most certainly aren't going to pay both Palmer and Newton.

The only Bengals fans who want Newton are 14 years old and clueless.

raynman
02-16-2011, 11:23 AM
Probably the worst Bengals pick possible. If you believe the rumors, Marvin is now fully in charge of player personnel. He will not take the risks with character that Mike Brown did.

If Palmer is gone, Newton will not be able to step in right away to play. He needs to sit on the bench and learn how an NFL offense with more than 1 read works. If there is not 2011 season, or even a long lockout until the season starts, Newton will be even further behind. So who are they going to start until he learns? They most certainly aren't going to pay both Palmer and Newton.

The only Bengals fans who want Newton are 14 years old and clueless.i think the oness who discount the talent and potential of newton are the ones who are clueless...or just lazy and not wanting to do any real research...or just biased against any nontraditional QB who looks for any reason to discredit someone like that.

AkiliSmith
02-16-2011, 11:27 AM
i think the oness who discount the talent and potential of newton are the ones who are clueless...or just lazy and not wanting to do any real research...or just biased against any nontraditional QB who looks for any reason to discredit someone like that.
That's not what I said at all

Trogdor
02-16-2011, 11:27 AM
Really like Watt but not at 9. If Green falls all the way to Dallas without a doubt someone will pony up some picks for a trade. Can't envision him getting that low though but it's early...

That being said I really, really, really, hate taking 3-4 lineman top 10 in the draft.

drowe
02-16-2011, 11:32 AM
I don't hate the Packers pick. depth isn't NOT needed..but, I think you're understating the year Sam Shields had. He was better than "admirable." towards the end of the year, they were essentially using Woodson as a linebacker because of the trust Williams and Shields earned in coverage. The dude had a very clean rookie year and he got better as the year went on.

Bengals78
02-16-2011, 12:11 PM
That's not what I said at all

At least he didn't call you racist.

FloridaFootball1
02-16-2011, 12:15 PM
Definitely could see Watt going to the Cowboys.

PossibleCabbage
02-16-2011, 12:17 PM
I don't hate the Packers pick. depth isn't NOT needed..but, I think you're understating the year Sam Shields had. He was better than "admirable." towards the end of the year, they were essentially using Woodson as a linebacker because of the trust Williams and Shields earned in coverage. The dude had a very clean rookie year and he got better as the year went on.

Really, all you need to do to justify a Packers pick or a #32 pick (or especially a Packers pick at #32) is "best player available". Taking a dig at Sam Shields is unnecessary (since he was about the third best rookie CB in the league last year), and I'm not really sure that Williams is BPA there.

Flaming Mo
02-16-2011, 12:19 PM
Love the Justin Houston pick for the Jets and if he lives up to his potential he could do wonders for our pass rush. Pace and Bryan Thomas just are not consistent enough and are getting up there in age.

I disagree with Scott's judgement of Mike DeVito though (best served for backup duty). He has developed into an incredibly stout player who is one of the main reasons why we had one of the best run defenses in all of football (which certainly didnt show up in the AFCCG). He is easily on the strongest players on the team and even gets nice push every once in a while. Shaun Ellis is more likely to head to the bench if the Jets draft a 3-4 end and manage to resign him. He would be perfect as a situational pass rusher on the inside.

killxswitch
02-16-2011, 12:19 PM
Still giving the Colts Solder. I am telling you, he would be a disaster for the Colts. We don't have the time or the coaching staff for him to develop into a great or even good tackle.

Flaming Mo
02-16-2011, 12:22 PM
Please stop.

Just think to yourself about all of the great 3-4 teams in the league, what do they have?

An elite pass rusher, sometimes two! If Robert Quinn, through this evaluation process, is able to show that he is that kind of player, then this is an amazing pick. I personally have Amukamara ahead of him, but it wouldnt break my heart.

We desperately need a pass rushing force on the edge, just as badly as we need a presence in the secondary.

No true #1? Crabtree was in his second year, in a crappy offense for his talents. Depth at DT? What? Marcell Dareus and Nick Fairley would both be ends in the 3-4...

Well, not if you are the Jets... the fact that Rex Ryan's guys still managed to be ranked at three in total defense is a testament to his greatness. Hope we finally get a true speed rusher off the edge this offseason...

TimmG6376
02-16-2011, 12:24 PM
I don't hate the Packers pick. depth isn't NOT needed..but, I think you're understating the year Sam Shields had. He was better than "admirable." towards the end of the year, they were essentially using Woodson as a linebacker because of the trust Williams and Shields earned in coverage. The dude had a very clean rookie year and he got better as the year went on.

Really, all you need to do to justify a Packers pick or a #32 pick (or especially a Packers pick at #32) is "best player available". Taking a dig at Sam Shields is unnecessary (since he was about the third best rookie CB in the league last year), and I'm not really sure that Williams is BPA there.

Agree.

Woodson is 35. How many CBs can keep up with WRs in their mid/late 30s? And the dropoff from Shields to Lee/Underwood/Bush is immense. Going CB at #32 would have nothing to do with Shields' ability/performance. It would be all about insurance should Tramon or Shields get hurt.

vidae
02-16-2011, 12:34 PM
I'm just not a fan of OT to Kansas City. Justin Houston or the best WR available would be much better picks and bigger areas of need.

raynman
02-16-2011, 01:00 PM
Probably the worst Bengals pick possible. If you believe the rumors, Marvin is now fully in charge of player personnel. He will not take the risks with character that Mike Brown did.

If Palmer is gone, Newton will not be able to step in right away to play. He needs to sit on the bench and learn how an NFL offense with more than 1 read works. If there is not 2011 season, or even a long lockout until the season starts, Newton will be even further behind. So who are they going to start until he learns? They most certainly aren't going to pay both Palmer and Newton.

The only Bengals fans who want Newton are 14 years old and clueless.i think the oness who discount the talent and potential of newton are the ones who are clueless...or just lazy and not wanting to do any real research...or just biased against any nontraditional QB who looks for any reason to discredit someone like that.That's not what I said at allthis is where you failed...
The only Bengals fans who want Newton are 14 years old and clueless.there are plenty of good reasons to take newton there.

character concerns are for things done in the past and he's kept out of trouble since leaving florida. it's a non-issue.

he's a lot more able to pick up a new offense than people give him credit for.

in high school the biggest criticism of him was that he was a pure pocket passer and wasn't seen as someone who could be very mobile. he had to learn how to play the role of running QB when he went to college.

as far as his supposed "one read" offense/QB play...you might find this enlightening One area of Newton’s game we find to be underrated is his ability to break off his Plan A and Plan B in order to hit his Plan C quickly before the defense could possibly guess at his intentions. This makes him very hard to defend. He knows where everyone on the field is supposed to be at all times according to the play design, and is able to process information and pull the trigger quickly on a forgotten check down option.


This was a quality that Phil Rivers regularly put on display at North Carolina State. His confidence in his timing and mental picture of field and its players is what allows him to use his eyes effectively to deceive defenses. He has talked about in interviews before how he understands that due to pre-snap reads he might have a clear idea of where he will end up going with the ball on some plays, but he has the confidence to be patient and use his eyes before he gets there.


Contrary to popular belief, film study, knowledge of defenses, knowledge of your play designs, and pre-snap reads can give you a pretty clear pre-snap picture of where you ultimately want to end up with the ball at the NFL level on a large percentage of plays. There are those writing for and following the New England Patriots that believe that the majority of Tom Brady’s pass targets are known to him before the snap.


As for his handling of pressure from the pocket, long time defensive coach Bill Oliver, a man that has faced his share of Heisman trophy winners, was correct in his accounting of Newton as a guy that has “eyes that can see 360 degrees”. Cam’s ability to sense pressure from the pocket and step up or around it is special. As noted before, he keeps his eyes up the field while scrambling, looking for the most dangerous passing option. He only ran on 15 of his 169 pass snaps during the six games put on video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvpZyJvmupM&fwiw, this was taken from an incredibly comprehensive study on newton looking at the game tape of his last 6 games at auburn. the article is really long, but well worth the read for anyone who wants the real story on newton.
http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2011/02/draft_winds_a_thorough_breakdo.html

Matthew Jones
02-16-2011, 01:14 PM
Nice picks for New England!

diabsoule
02-16-2011, 01:57 PM
Love the Saints pick. The mock I'm putting together has several of the same picks

fear the elf
02-16-2011, 02:02 PM
this is where you failed...
there are plenty of good reasons to take newton there.

character concerns are for things done in the past and he's kept out of trouble since leaving florida. it's a non-issue.

he's a lot more able to pick up a new offense than people give him credit for.

in high school the biggest criticism of him was that he was a pure pocket passer and wasn't seen as someone who could be very mobile. he had to learn how to play the role of running QB when he went to college.

as far as his supposed "one read" offense/QB play...you might find this enlightening fwiw, this was taken from an incredibly comprehensive study on newton looking at the game tape of his last 6 games at auburn. the article is really long, but well worth the read for anyone who wants the real story on newton.
http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2011/02/draft_winds_a_thorough_breakdo.html

Really? I didn't realize that the statute of limitations was only 2 years on that ****... Learn something new everyday I guess.

SeanTaylorRIP
02-16-2011, 02:05 PM
If the Skins somehow landed AJ even in a trade up it would give me at least an ounce of optimism with this pathetic team.

Hurricanes25
02-16-2011, 02:07 PM
I really like Justin Houston to the Jets. The Jets could really use a pass rusher.

mqtirishfan
02-16-2011, 02:14 PM
Also, why is Sam Shields coming in as an undrafted rookie and playing well a testament to the lack of depth in the Green Bay secondary? Ignore the fact that he was an undrafted rookie for a minute, Sam Shields played really, really well this year. He wasn't the #3 CB by default at all. If you were to redo the 2010 draft, Shields would go ahead of three of the five first round corners that year. You don't end up as the #1 rated pass defense with a rookie nickel back (who actually lined up as the #2 a lot) if he's not actually playing well. I'm not actually convinced that Aaron Williams could beat out Sam Shields next year, so why do you draft your #4 CB in the first round?

Because Woodson is getting quite old and is coming off an injury, and their next best option after Williams and Shields would then be Jarrett Bush. Depth in the secondary is something I'd welcome after watching the Super Bowl. It's not like Green Bay is likely to find an instant starter at #32, unless they reach for a guard to put opposite Sitton or one of the rush backers fall.

wicket
02-16-2011, 02:18 PM
Love the Saints pick. The mock I'm putting together has several of the same picks

They pick i wouldve loved is Heyward but I do like the pick

raynman
02-16-2011, 02:30 PM
Really? I didn't realize that the statute of limitations was only 2 years on that ****... Learn something new everyday I guess.you can either believe that people (including newton) can grow up and make the most of opportunities to mature or you can be closed minded and think that a few mistakes he made as an 18-19 year old should be carried with him the rest of his life and dictate who you are.

until there is news about/evidence of him making bad decisions after leaving florida, i will go with the assumption that his past mistakes are evidence of a punk kid, but his clean record since leaving that situation is proof that he has grown up and at the very least is evidence that he knows how to keep out of trouble.

Babylon
02-16-2011, 02:35 PM
Seattle

Obviously on some level i would want Locker to go much higher and i think he very well could. Having said that keeping him in Seattle would be fantastic. The Seahawks have an aging FA in Hasselbeck and a career backup in my opinion in Whithurst. Sign Matt for another year and sit Jake till the latter part of the season or next. On a sidenote Hasselbeck and Locker have the same agent (Carson Palmer too).

A Perfect Score
02-16-2011, 02:38 PM
Seattle

Obviously on some level i would want Locker to go much higher and i think he very well could. Having said that keeping him in Seattle would be fantastic. The Seahawks have an aging FA in Hasselbeck and a career backup in my opinion in Whithurst. Sign Matt for another year and sit Jake till the latter part of the season or next. On a sidenote Hasselbeck and Locker have the same agent (Carson Palmer too).

If by career backup you mean your lord and saviour Jesus Christ, then perhaps you are correct.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/files/2010/03/whit.jpg

jayceheathman
02-16-2011, 03:21 PM
I would wet my pants if Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara fell to the Texans at 11. I like Peterson more but I wouldn't mind getting Amukamara with our pathetic secondary. If Kareem Jackson can develop then that will be a nice, young CB threat.

Babylon
02-16-2011, 03:28 PM
If by career backup you mean your lord and saviour Jesus Christ, then perhaps you are correct.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/files/2010/03/whit.jpg

He should of gone into acting, would have been a better choice.

JRTPlaya21
02-16-2011, 04:20 PM
If the Skins somehow landed AJ even in a trade up it would give me at least an ounce of optimism with this pathetic team.

Haha I've been feeling that way my whole life it seems.

Go_Eagles77
02-16-2011, 04:34 PM
Love the eagles pick, I really think someone will snatch Harris up before he gets to us, though.

prock
02-16-2011, 04:38 PM
If by career backup you mean your lord and saviour Jesus Christ, then perhaps you are correct.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/files/2010/03/whit.jpg

He isn't Jesus, he is Rocco.

armageddon
02-16-2011, 05:09 PM
Julio to the Rams is just what the Dr. ordered. He and Bradford will make beautiful music together. Ok, that was ***. Anyway, good pick. About as a no brainer as there is.

Dam8610
02-16-2011, 05:16 PM
Still giving the Colts Solder. I am telling you, he would be a disaster for the Colts. We don't have the time or the coaching staff for him to develop into a great or even good tackle.

This, kind of, in that I'm wary that Solder could get Peyton KILLED in his first year. That said, longterm he could be the best of the bunch, but I'm liking Sherrod and Carimi better for the fact that IMO their floors are higher and their ceilings aren't much lower. They both show proper technique far more often, and don't get beat nearly as much.

descendency
02-16-2011, 05:24 PM
Dez Bryant wouldn't last that long.

This... (10 char)

RealityCheck
02-16-2011, 05:58 PM
Love the Kerrigan/Heyward combo.

But seriously, I hated the Newton pick. And I don't even like the Bengals. That's how bad this pick was in my opinion.

yourfavestoner
02-16-2011, 06:02 PM
Personally, I think Newton to Buffalo is about as close to a lock as you can get.

Netwon + Chan Gailey + small market team looking to make a splash and excite their fans=match made in heaven.

BeerBaron
02-16-2011, 06:17 PM
Needless to say it would be an upset if Chicago went in any other direction with this pick.

Scott, I have someone here you really need to meet:

http://thetribunalbar.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/jerry_angelo2.jpg

Scott, Jerry. Jerry, Scott.

Jerry: "So Mr. Wright, are you questioning my personally handpicked tackles? Are you questioning my decision making in signing Frank Omiyele or drafting J'Marcus Webb? By giving up on them now, it will make me look bad as a GM, and we simply can't have that. I trust Mike Tice to coach 'em up.

Now I'm off to draft and undersized WR or slow safety."

P-L
02-16-2011, 06:42 PM
I know Scott doesn't project trades, but I would be furious if the Lions didn't even attempt to trade up one or two spots to land Prince Amukamara or Cam Jordan and instead drafted a player who wouldn't start until 2012.

yourfavestoner
02-16-2011, 06:43 PM
I know Scott doesn't project trades, but I would be furious if the Lions didn't even attempt to trade up one or two spots to land Prince Amukamara or Cam Jordan and instead drafted a player who wouldn't start until 2012.

Eh, the Lions are still a year or two from competing for the division anyways, so if the guys they take ends up being as good down the line, then who really cares about the instant impact?

BeerBaron
02-16-2011, 06:45 PM
Eh, the Lions are still a year or two from competing for the division anyways, so if the guys they take ends up being as good down the line, then who really cares about the instant impact?

If I didn't have a truce on with Brodeur right now, I'd totally bold that and post a picture of Matt Stafford....alas.

Brodeur
02-16-2011, 07:28 PM
Eh, the Lions are still a year or two from competing for the division anyways, so if the guys they take ends up being as good down the line, then who really cares about the instant impact?

No they aren't. They barely lost to the Bears twice, and were 1-1 against the Packers and Vikings (with one of the losses to the Packers being very close). IF Stafford stays healthy, I see no reason they can't compete this year.

killxswitch
02-16-2011, 07:42 PM
If the Lions draft well there's no good reason they can't compete for the division.

Malaka
02-16-2011, 07:46 PM
Liuget? over Paea? =( I am sad.

Not that even want a DT in the first, I'd love to move back but more realisticaly get a Castonzo or Carimi.

LonghornsLegend
02-16-2011, 08:06 PM
I actually loved the Tyron Smith pick, he could end up a tremendous LT and I think he makes alot of sense for them. Now before 6 people tell me how great Backus played last year, it's not like you can't keep him there for another year, or if Smith looks good early kick Backus inside and upgrade 2 spots.



For Dallas:



Really do not like Watt. Honestly I don't like any 3-4 DE in the top 10 except Dareus who is explosive enough to warrant that selection. Watt is not a bad player, but people forget that we have a guy in house we are very fond of in Stephen Bowen who will be re-signed for a very manageable contract and start opposite Igor.



I think were going with Prince if Dareus, Peterson, & Quinn are all off the board at that point. He would play alot more then Watt and be more valuable. Only way I'd buy someone like Watt or Cameron Jordan in the top 10 is if we somehow land Aso in FA.

GloryDaysRBack
02-16-2011, 11:12 PM
Cam Jordan > Marcel Dareus

PossibleCabbage
02-16-2011, 11:17 PM
Liuget? over Paea? =( I am sad.

I think a lot is going to come down to how Paea's knee checks out at the combine. I'm a little worried about it.

yourfavestoner
02-16-2011, 11:29 PM
I actually loved the Tyron Smith pick, he could end up a tremendous LT and I think he makes alot of sense for them. Now before 6 people tell me how great Backus played last year, it's not like you can't keep him there for another year, or if Smith looks good early kick Backus inside and upgrade 2 spots.



For Dallas:



Really do not like Watt. Honestly I don't like any 3-4 DE in the top 10 except Dareus who is explosive enough to warrant that selection. Watt is not a bad player, but people forget that we have a guy in house we are very fond of in Stephen Bowen who will be re-signed for a very manageable contract and start opposite Igor.



I think were going with Prince if Dareus, Peterson, & Quinn are all off the board at that point. He would play alot more then Watt and be more valuable. Only way I'd buy someone like Watt or Cameron Jordan in the top 10 is if we somehow land Aso in FA.

Smith:Bulagagaga
Peterson/Prince:Eric Berry
Chiefs fans' rage:Lions fans' fury

Chaos is about to ensue for the next two months.

toonsterwu
02-16-2011, 11:30 PM
On the Bears pick -

First off, I do like Carimi. I am a believer that in some systems, Carimi can be a LT. Now, I'll be the first to admit that he's a RT.

2nd, of the top OT's, he's really the one guy that screams Mike Tice-OL talent. Big, strong, physical - that's how Tice likes them.

I don't mind the pick. The reason I'm posting is this line -

"Needless to say it would be an upset if Chicago went in any other direction with this pick."

I find that to be a touch overboard. Is it possible the Bears go OL? Without a doubt. That said

a) This is a team coming off a playoff season. They will likely want to draft a guy in year 1 that can play right away at the position that they intend for the player to be at. It's not a lock, but it's probably their hope. As average as Omiyale is, you'd have a tough time selling me that pre-draft, you would feel more confident about any of the top OT's in this draft being a definite upgrade to Omiyale (any of them, including Tyron Smith). As I've noted on IRC, I do actually like this draft's OT class a bit better than the general consensus seems to be ... but it's still a very iffy class.

b) The Bears like J'Marcus Webb a ton. No, he's not promised anything, but they like him a ton. He got a bit better as the season progressed. Also, there's been enough rumors out there that the Bears may view Webb as their future LT. I'm not sure I buy it ... but those rumors have definitely been out for awhile.

c) The Bears DL had one dominant player, and a bunch of average guys. I like Idonije, but he's average. Decent starter, nothing special. For this defense, they desperately need a 3-technique. The idea that somehow a OT definitively trumps a 3-technique ... I don't buy, particularly when you factor in a and b.

d) The Bears made a critical decision at their skill spots this year - Devin Hester is a part-time WR again. Johnny Knox is still a very raw WR (bad routes at times, bad recognition at times). Honestly, Knox, Bennett, and Hester are all more number 3 type WR's, but they are passable as a 2nd starter. There's been little indication that the Bears are going to go hard after any veteran WR, so it wouldn't surprise me if they pursued someone late in the first, particularly a skill-complement to their current group (namely, a bigger downfield threat, something Devin Aromashodu was supposed to fill, but he didn't).

e) The chances of the Bears going after a CB in the first is minimal, but it is a priority need, as Tim Jennings shouldn't really be starting. While they have DJ Moore and Bowman, neither is a lock to force their way into the starting lineup, so if the Bears did take a CB in the first, it shouldn't be viewed as an absolute stunner.

LT is arguably the Bears top need, but unless they feel confident that said player can step in from day and be an upgrade ... I'm not sure it's the clearcut only option as the top pick. If they feel like the guys are more developmental types, then they may prefer grabbing someone later, and addressing key needs at WR/DT first.

toonsterwu
02-16-2011, 11:32 PM
Liuget? over Paea? =( I am sad.

Not that even want a DT in the first, I'd love to move back but more realisticaly get a Castonzo or Carimi.

That one I can buy (Liuget over Paea). Corey seems a slightly better fit for the defense, and is probably a better pass-rusher.

yourfavestoner
02-16-2011, 11:34 PM
Toonster lives.

toonsterwu
02-16-2011, 11:38 PM
Cam Jordan > Marcel Dareus

IMO, depends on what position you are looking at. I'll take Cam Jordan as a 4-3 DE and 5-technique over Dareus, but if I'm looking for an interior player in the 4-3 ... it's Dareus, even though Jordan is actually capable of handling such a role.

I've done a 360 on Dareus. For awhile, I didn't see what was so intriguing about the guy. I think there's a general feeling that he was a guy who could do a little bit of everything. The thing is, I think he's a guy who can do a little bit of everything well, and stay disciplined. He might not be Fairley as a pass rusher, but he's more than capable, and he's stronger against the run. For teams that require their DL guys to be disciplined, he'll look really appealing.

toonsterwu
02-16-2011, 11:39 PM
If the Lions draft well there's no good reason they can't compete for the division.

I'll go one simpler - if the Lions can keep Stafford playing, they'll be in the mix.

toonsterwu
02-16-2011, 11:43 PM
Personally, I think Newton to Buffalo is about as close to a lock as you can get.

Netwon + Chan Gailey + small market team looking to make a splash and excite their fans=match made in heaven.

I think that presumes that Newton is a lock to get to Buffalo ...

One other thing to note is that, Ralph Wilson has always been a guy that argued for taking character guys (or to try to ... as they've had some knuckleheads in recent years). Newton's history is so well known.

That said, more and more, I am starting to think that if Newton is there at 3, that he would go to Buffalo.

toonsterwu
02-16-2011, 11:48 PM
Love the Kerrigan/Heyward combo.

But seriously, I hated the Newton pick. And I don't even like the Bengals. That's how bad this pick was in my opinion.

I really like Kerrigan overall ... but I'm not sold on several things.

a) I'm not completely sold that Kerrigan will be viewed as a top 3-4 rush backer. He looks and fits the part, but I wonder if he's more Chris Long-ish.

b) Do they take a 5-technique early? I think they should (I prefer Muhammad Wilkerson more than Heyward ... still not sold Heyward is an elite 5-tech). That said, there's a chance that they will be running Warren (times 2), Wilfork, Brace, Wright, and others out there. It's possible someone gets cut ... but I don't think it's a lock that they are going to add youth there in the first.

c) I think projecting the Pats this year is quite difficult. It's well known that they want to add an interior OL guy if there's one they like. There's also been spec that they may still pursue a DB, despite all the recent picks on it. Personally, I'd like to see them add a WR if there's one they like (let's not forget that Belichick loves toolsy guys), but the heavy spec is that they are really high on Taylor Price and won't press to add a WR. I really wonder if LeShoure is in their picture - he seems like the type of RB that BB would really love.

d) Realistically, they'll probably deal around and grab a future pick, which makes sense this year, considering that they can find quality talent in the 2nd/3rd for their needs.

toonsterwu
02-16-2011, 11:50 PM
Love the eagles pick, I really think someone will snatch Harris up before he gets to us, though.

I like Harris enough (I said on irc once that it wouldn't surprise me if Harris was the best corner from Prince, PP, and him in 5 years) ... but I'm not sold he's a lock to go in the first. There's some bad tape out there on him, and the CB depth in that late first-3rd range is relatively solid.

toonsterwu
02-16-2011, 11:51 PM
Julio to the Rams is just what the Dr. ordered. He and Bradford will make beautiful music together. Ok, that was ***. Anyway, good pick. About as a no brainer as there is.

If Julio is there, I think they pull the trigger, but one thing to keep in mind is that McDaniels isn't Shurmur. Julio would've been a better fit for Shurmur's offense, IMO.

that said, I'd be surprised if they passed on him if he was available. Of course, if AJ Green fell that far, I'd be surprised if they didn't try to move up for him.

toonsterwu
02-16-2011, 11:54 PM
i think the oness who discount the talent and potential of newton are the ones who are clueless...or just lazy and not wanting to do any real research...or just biased against any nontraditional QB who looks for any reason to discredit someone like that.

I'm actually not a huge fan of any QB in this draft, but one of the things bugging me has been why Gabbert is viewed as being a decent notch ahead of Newton right now. Yes, Mizzou's offense is a bit more complex than Malzahn's, but that's like saying a 76 on a paper is far better than a 75 (okay not the best example). Both have learning issues to adjust to. I like Gabbert a lot, but Newton has better mechanics, while having similar arm tools to work with. I'm not saying Newton should be ahead of Gabbert either - both are relatively close to each other for me.

toonsterwu
02-16-2011, 11:56 PM
Really like Watt but not at 9. If Green falls all the way to Dallas without a doubt someone will pony up some picks for a trade. Can't envision him getting that low though but it's early...

That being said I really, really, really, hate taking 3-4 lineman top 10 in the draft.

I love JJ Watt. I've been saying this for awhile, but he's my favorite DL talent in this draft (of course, last year, I loved Odrick, and he still slipped).

If you feel like you have an elite 5-technique talent, taking them in the top 10 isn't an issue. A dominant 5-technique changes the complexion of your 3-4 defense.

toonsterwu
02-17-2011, 12:05 AM
this is where you failed...
there are plenty of good reasons to take newton there.

character concerns are for things done in the past and he's kept out of trouble since leaving florida. it's a non-issue.

he's a lot more able to pick up a new offense than people give him credit for.

in high school the biggest criticism of him was that he was a pure pocket passer and wasn't seen as someone who could be very mobile. he had to learn how to play the role of running QB when he went to college.

as far as his supposed "one read" offense/QB play...you might find this enlightening fwiw, this was taken from an incredibly comprehensive study on newton looking at the game tape of his last 6 games at auburn. the article is really long, but well worth the read for anyone who wants the real story on newton.
http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2011/02/draft_winds_a_thorough_breakdo.html

That's an interesting writeup. I think it's actually fair, although I think the universaldraft guys were a bit flowery in their praise for his ability to move onto other reads. There's a lot of reasons why I don't love Newton, but I'm not gigantically concerned about his ability to scan the field overall (now, if you expect him to start in early in year 1, then sure, I'd be quite concerned, but I'd hope anyone drafting him is smart enough to wait a bit). I'm concerned, but the thing is, one of the most ridiculous aspects that come into play in drafting a QB is the idea that there is such a thing as a "pro-ready" QB, as if there is a guarantee out there. No college system is a "pro" system, due to a variety of reasons. Every college QB has issues to learn and adjust to.

toonsterwu
02-17-2011, 12:08 AM
Honestly, I'm not a fan of the Browns' pick. I think we have to go with AJ Green or Julio Jones in the 1st for the same reasons you gave for the Rams' pick:

On Julio - Really? I'm not as huge on Fairley as many are, but there's a thorough lack of defensive line talent for what Jauron wants to do. A good WR can be found. AJ Green is a great looking WR talent and I probably agree on that one (that plucking him before Fairley makes more sense), but much as I like Julio, I think you would need to take a potentially dominant 4-3 DT fit and look for a WR later. Playing next to Rubin would be perfect for Fairley, allowing him to play "go get'em".

ElectricEye
02-17-2011, 12:09 AM
I really like Kerrigan overall ... but I'm not sold on several things.

a) I'm not completely sold that Kerrigan will be viewed as a top 3-4 rush backer. He looks and fits the part, but I wonder if he's more Chris Long-ish.
I think he's a far less limited athlete than people think, but I'm starting to question that a bit. If it would work in any scheme, I think it would work in ours...but I'm prepared for us to pass on him for a more toolsy guy.

b) Do they take a 5-technique early? I think they should (I prefer Muhammad Wilkerson more than Heyward ... still not sold Heyward is an elite 5-tech). That said, there's a chance that they will be running Warren (times 2), Wilfork, Brace, Wright, and others out there. It's possible someone gets cut ... but I don't think it's a lock that they are going to add youth there in the first.
Ty Warren is my surprise cut of the off-season candidate. He's recovering from some pretty serious injuries and hasn't been the same player he once was for a few years now despite having youth on his size. As versatile and valuable as Wilfork proved last year playing defensive end and moving around, it always hurt us at another spot. Wilkerson is a guy who I was low on coming into the process but having watched more of them I'm starting to like what I see. Watt is another guy we could potentially take if he falls to us. Any particular reason you aren't sold on Heyward as an elite five technique?

c) I think projecting the Pats this year is quite difficult. It's well known that they want to add an interior OL guy if there's one they like. There's also been spec that they may still pursue a DB, despite all the recent picks on it. Personally, I'd like to see them add a WR if there's one they like (let's not forget that Belichick loves toolsy guys), but the heavy spec is that they are really high on Taylor Price and won't press to add a WR. I really wonder if LeShoure is in their picture - he seems like the type of RB that BB would really love.
One guy who I've been running through my mind in terms of a potential off the radar pick is Brandon Harris. He has a lot of the skills we look for in a corner and could be around for pick #17. Wide receiver is still majorly in play too. Our receivers struggled to get open against good press coverage and when the middle of the field was clogged well.

d) Realistically, they'll probably deal around and grab a future pick, which makes sense this year, considering that they can find quality talent in the 2nd/3rd for their needs.
Probably true...I just hope we hit on a few positions early.

toonsterwu
02-17-2011, 12:11 AM
im probably going to debate Shane about this on the podcast friday night but if the mock draft doesn't have certainty at the 1 pick it's very hard to do accurately.

I don't think there is a defender worth that pick, like when Mario Williams or Jake Long went 1. Da'Quan Bowers had knee surgery... not major but will he workout?

in fact if there is a high upside prototype this year it's Cam Newton. Scott I told you this at Mobile, there's still room on the bandwagon buddy!

actually a really good job overall it's alot easier to bash these things than to make them.

Honestly, I don't love Newton ... but right now, let's see, how should I say this, if I had to mock what I thought would happen, I do think that I would mock Newton going first overall, assuming Richardson felt comfortable with the character aspects.

Personally, assuming Bowers is healthy, that's what I would do if I was Marty Hurney, although I understand some concerns about his ceiling.

toonsterwu
02-17-2011, 12:15 AM
Toonster lives.

I probably don't follow the draft as much as most of the folks here, though, so take my comments with a bigger grain of salt than before.

GB12
02-17-2011, 12:32 AM
Like others have said, you undersold Sam Shields. I was skeptical of him for a long time, I didn't even really want him on the roster to begin the season, but he has proved he can be a starter. We'll need a corner eventually to take over as the #3 when Woodson retires, but unless his collarbone is a problem we don't have to do that this year. If there's absolutely nothing better on the board I'd be ok taking one, but I'd definitely take Sherrod or Castonzo there.

Also I can't stand that last line you threw in there. It's not just you, I hear it from Packer fans all the time too. If James Jones isn't brought back it's because some other team gave him a ridiculous contract, not because of this "inconsistency".

toonsterwu
02-17-2011, 12:38 AM
I think he's a far less limited athlete than people think, but I'm starting to question that a bit. If it would work in any scheme, I think it would work in ours...but I'm prepared for us to pass on him for a more toolsy guy.


Ty Warren is my surprise cut of the off-season candidate. He's recovering from some pretty serious injuries and hasn't been the same player he once was for a few years now despite having youth on his size. As versatile and valuable as Wilfork proved last year playing defensive end and moving around, it always hurt us at another spot. Wilkerson is a guy who I was low on coming into the process but having watched more of them I'm starting to like what I see. Watt is another guy we could potentially take if he falls to us. Any particular reason you aren't sold on Heyward as an elite five technique?


One guy who I've been running through my mind in terms of a potential off the radar pick is Brandon Harris. He has a lot of the skills we look for in a corner and could be around for pick #17. Wide receiver is still majorly in play too. Our receivers struggled to get open against good press coverage and when the middle of the field was clogged well.


Probably true...I just hope we hit on a few positions early.

I had something longer typed out but lost it. Real quick

Kerrigan - In his favor as a possible Pats pick, moreso than his motor, is this - Kerrigan, in all likelihood, should be able to set the edge, and much as people have wanted BB to select a long rangy rush backer (Scott ... I have to ask ... who is the long rangy rush backer in recent Pats history that played a key role ... I don't really view Jermaine Cunningham, Vrabel, Mcginest, Banta-Cain, Colvin, Adalius thomas as the long rangy guys, but maybe our definitions are off there), BB has always valued the ability to set the edge out of his rush backers. I think Kerrigan is a possible pick (although I still feel, and I know some disagree, that 17 is high), but considering his history in selecting rush backers, I'm not sold that it's a strong likelihood type of pick. I feel like Kerrigan may be more ... Aaron Kampman ... a guy better off on the line, where his overall athetlcism might not be exposed (not that it's bad, but one could certainly see RB's and TE's going after him and causing him trouble)).

5-techs - OSU fans may jump in in his defense, and I know there were physical factors, but I'm not sold that Heyward is a strong enough pocket collapser/pass rusher to be a potential elite 5-tech. I think he'll be stout against the run and give enough push, but I don't view him as an elite 5-tech. Again, don't follow as much, so feel free to correct me. I could also see Warren get cut. I love JJ Watt, and I'll be surprised if he falls around 17 (of course, I loved Odrick last year and he fell). that said, keep in mind that BB did go after a 5-tech he liked and moved up for him (Ty Warren).

CB and WR - I like Harris, but as noted somewhere, he's got some bad tape and not sure he's a lock for the first. Good CB depth, well decent enough, from late 1st to 3rd. Also, reminds me a lot of Butler, and if you have any sort of confidence in Butler to turn it around, would seem foolish to spend a pick on Harris unless you think he's elite. also not sure he's physical enough to warrant a BB CB pick in the first. That said, could I see it? Sure. At WR, they seem really high on Taylor Price. I'd love to see them add a Torrey Smith type (I'm big on him, I know others aren't), but with Price/Tate/Edelman/Welker/Branch, it's fairly ... filled. Certainly could see them cut someone, or move someone, though.

critesy
02-17-2011, 12:39 AM
if aj green falls to the skins, it may be more of robbery than orakpo falling to washington in that draft. oh dear jesus please.

toonsterwu
02-17-2011, 12:40 AM
Like others have said, you undersold Sam Shields. I was skeptical of him for a long time, I didn't even really want him on the roster to begin the season, but he has proved he can be a starter. We'll need a corner eventually to take over as the #3 when Woodson retires, but unless his collarbone is a problem we don't have to do that this year. If there's absolutely nothing better on the board I'd be ok taking one, but I'd definitely take Sherrod or Castonzo there.

Also I can't stand that last line you threw in there. It's not just you, I hear it from Packer fans all the time too. If James Jones isn't brought back it's because some other team gave him a ridiculous contract, not because of this "inconsistency".

Sam Shields was arguably one of the main reasons why they got to the Super Bowl. The fact that Capers felt comfortable enough with him allowed them a ton of flexibility in attacking the Bears. I do think they'll add a CB in the draft, perhaps within the first 4 rounds, but I've got a hard time seeing it in the first unless it's BPA, and BPA by a good margin.

rawdawg
02-17-2011, 08:54 AM
On the Bears pick -

First off, I do like Carimi. I am a believer that in some systems, Carimi can be a LT. Now, I'll be the first to admit that he's a RT.

2nd, of the top OT's, he's really the one guy that screams Mike Tice-OL talent. Big, strong, physical - that's how Tice likes them.

I don't mind the pick. The reason I'm posting is this line -

"Needless to say it would be an upset if Chicago went in any other direction with this pick."

I find that to be a touch overboard. Is it possible the Bears go OL? Without a doubt. That said

a) This is a team coming off a playoff season. They will likely want to draft a guy in year 1 that can play right away at the position that they intend for the player to be at. It's not a lock, but it's probably their hope. As average as Omiyale is, you'd have a tough time selling me that pre-draft, you would feel more confident about any of the top OT's in this draft being a definite upgrade to Omiyale (any of them, including Tyron Smith). As I've noted on IRC, I do actually like this draft's OT class a bit better than the general consensus seems to be ... but it's still a very iffy class.

b) The Bears like J'Marcus Webb a ton. No, he's not promised anything, but they like him a ton. He got a bit better as the season progressed. Also, there's been enough rumors out there that the Bears may view Webb as their future LT. I'm not sure I buy it ... but those rumors have definitely been out for awhile.

c) The Bears DL had one dominant player, and a bunch of average guys. I like Idonije, but he's average. Decent starter, nothing special. For this defense, they desperately need a 3-technique. The idea that somehow a OT definitively trumps a 3-technique ... I don't buy, particularly when you factor in a and b.

d) The Bears made a critical decision at their skill spots this year - Devin Hester is a part-time WR again. Johnny Knox is still a very raw WR (bad routes at times, bad recognition at times). Honestly, Knox, Bennett, and Hester are all more number 3 type WR's, but they are passable as a 2nd starter. There's been little indication that the Bears are going to go hard after any veteran WR, so it wouldn't surprise me if they pursued someone late in the first, particularly a skill-complement to their current group (namely, a bigger downfield threat, something Devin Aromashodu was supposed to fill, but he didn't).

e) The chances of the Bears going after a CB in the first is minimal, but it is a priority need, as Tim Jennings shouldn't really be starting. While they have DJ Moore and Bowman, neither is a lock to force their way into the starting lineup, so if the Bears did take a CB in the first, it shouldn't be viewed as an absolute stunner.

LT is arguably the Bears top need, but unless they feel confident that said player can step in from day and be an upgrade ... I'm not sure it's the clearcut only option as the top pick. If they feel like the guys are more developmental types, then they may prefer grabbing someone later, and addressing key needs at WR/DT first.

Exactly what I was saying. It's not as simple as "Bears gave up 56 sacks, gotta draft a tackle", which is what everyone thinks. Webb is going to start at one of the tackle positions. You don't start a 22-year old 12 games, watch him improve over the last 5-6 weeks and then sit him on the bench for another 22-year old. Maybe you start a Carimi over Omiyale, but that's still iffy. And I don't think Smith, Castonzo, Solder, or Sherrod are ready to be Day 1 LT starters. And if not, you have to go with someone that can be a Day 1 starter at another position, whether WR, DT, or OG/OC.

fear the elf
02-17-2011, 09:23 AM
On Julio - Really? I'm not as huge on Fairley as many are, but there's a thorough lack of defensive line talent for what Jauron wants to do. A good WR can be found. AJ Green is a great looking WR talent and I probably agree on that one (that plucking him before Fairley makes more sense), but much as I like Julio, I think you would need to take a potentially dominant 4-3 DT fit and look for a WR later. Playing next to Rubin would be perfect for Fairley, allowing him to play "go get'em".

It's just my opinion, but because the Browns are a minimum of a couple years away from being relevant, I don't care about anything except for the development of Colt McCoy. For that reason, I basically only want players in this draft that will directly help him like Julio or Green. I'd love to have a dominant defense, and want Jauron to have all the pieces he needs eventually, but finally having a legit NFL starter at QB is by far the most pressing need for the future of the franchise.

PossibleCabbage
02-17-2011, 09:29 AM
Sam Shields was arguably one of the main reasons why they got to the Super Bowl. The fact that Capers felt comfortable enough with him allowed them a ton of flexibility in attacking the Bears. I do think they'll add a CB in the draft, perhaps within the first 4 rounds, but I've got a hard time seeing it in the first unless it's BPA, and BPA by a good margin.

The other thing to note is that Green Bay isn't really "an injury to the top 3 CBs away from having to play Jarrett Bush", considering that Capers often likes to play 3 safeties in his base nickel. The reason they weren't doing that much last year was because they were basically two deep at safety (putting Atari Bigby on the field would be worse than putting Jarret Bush on the field). Derrick Martin, Anthony Smith, and Morgan Burnett (who may well be starting in place of Peprah next year) would all be better choices for the fifth DB than Bush.

And that's putting aside the fact that potentially Pat Lee or Brandon Underwood might actually live up to their potential this year, not that I'd bet on it.

Personally, I'm pretty sure that Green Bay just picks BPA at #32, unless it's a quarterback (or probably a running back).

vidae
02-17-2011, 09:53 AM
Smith:Bulagagaga
Peterson/Prince:Eric Berry
Chiefs fans' rage:Lions fans' fury

Chaos is about to ensue for the next two months.

That made me laugh for a good two minutes. People looked at me weird.

TimmG6376
02-17-2011, 10:00 AM
Like others have said, you undersold Sam Shields. I was skeptical of him for a long time, I didn't even really want him on the roster to begin the season, but he has proved he can be a starter. We'll need a corner eventually to take over as the #3 when Woodson retires, but unless his collarbone is a problem we don't have to do that this year. If there's absolutely nothing better on the board I'd be ok taking one, but I'd definitely take Sherrod or Castonzo there.

Also I can't stand that last line you threw in there. It's not just you, I hear it from Packer fans all the time too. If James Jones isn't brought back it's because some other team gave him a ridiculous contract, not because of this "inconsistency".

Yeah, I'm confident that TT will want to bring him back and I hope he realizes how good he has it with Rodgers throwing to him and Jennings/Finely/Nelson/Driver to take some attention off of him. But I won't hold a grudge if he gets a big offer and wants to see if he can be THE guy.

Brodeur
02-17-2011, 11:06 AM
Smith:Bulagagaga
Peterson/Prince:Eric Berry
Chiefs fans' rage:Lions fans' fury

Chaos is about to ensue for the next two months.

If you thought vidae was bad last year, just wait until these next few months get me riled up.

yourfavestoner
02-17-2011, 11:10 AM
If you thought vidae was bad last year, just wait until these next few months get me riled up.

You're getting a tackle, and you will like it.

TACKLE
02-17-2011, 11:20 AM
You're getting a tackle, and you will like it.

BUT THEY DON'T NEED ONE!!! ;)

_CkORRd1I6k


Sorry lions fans. I know one play doesn't make a player but I just had to do it.

rawdawg
02-17-2011, 11:47 AM
Yeah, I'm confident that TT will want to bring him back and I hope he realizes how good he has it with Rodgers throwing to him and Jennings/Finely/Nelson/Driver to take some attention off of him. But I won't hold a grudge if he gets a big offer and wants to see if he can be THE guy.

I'm a Bears fan, and I'd love to pay Jones the money he wants. I think a contract similar to Nate Burleson's might work. Burleson got 5/$25Mil from Detroit, with 11Mil guaranteed. Might take more guaranteed money (I'd offer $16M), but I think Jones could be had for similar years/ money per year. The Bears paid another player from a division rival last year on the first night of free agency (Chester Taylor) and I think Jones would jump at 5Mil/year and a guaranteed #1 WR role over fighting w/ Jordy Nelson to be the 4th target behind Jennings, Driver, and Finley.

Jones' scouting report actually says he had good hands coming out of the draft. And he has made plenty of tough catches the last few years.

umphrey
02-17-2011, 12:02 PM
Ryan Kerrigan and Robert Quinn are not outside linebackers, so please stop putting them there.

Shane P. Hallam
02-17-2011, 12:04 PM
Ryan Kerrigan and Robert Quinn are not outside linebackers, so please stop putting them there.

Some NFL teams feel differently than you.

A Perfect Score
02-17-2011, 12:04 PM
I've watched a ton of Kerrigan and I definitely think he can be an OLB in certain schemes, and Quinn can play OLB in any 3-4 scheme. I don't know where you're getting that from but both are capable of succeeding in that role from everything I've seen. Kerrigan isn't nearly as limited athletically as some posts on here would lead you to believe and Quinn is extremely fluid in his motions and looks fine in space. Both are scheme versatile IMO.

ElectricEye
02-17-2011, 12:07 PM
Like the ones that run 3-4 defenses, for example. Kerrigan I can understand a bit of reservation...but not with Quinn.

TimmG6376
02-17-2011, 12:13 PM
I'm a Bears fan, and I'd love to pay Jones the money he wants.

I take that back. I may hold a grudge then ;)

ATLDirtyBirds
02-17-2011, 12:20 PM
Personally, I think Newton to Buffalo is about as close to a lock as you can get.

Netwon + Chan Gailey + small market team looking to make a splash and excite their fans=match made in heaven.


I've felt this way for a while now. It's absolutely perfect. And I really want to see it happen, because it's the one true place I'd have full confidence in Cam succeeding.

LonghornsLegend
02-17-2011, 12:31 PM
Ryan Kerrigan and Robert Quinn are not outside linebackers, so please stop putting them there.

This is just incorrect.

PossibleCabbage
02-17-2011, 01:01 PM
Jones' scouting report actually says he had good hands coming out of the draft. And he has made plenty of tough catches the last few years.

Jones has good hands, and inconsistent concentration. He'll make the really tough catches, and then botch the routine easy ones. When the routine, easy ones are for 70 yard touchdowns, you may feel differently.

vidae
02-17-2011, 01:20 PM
If you thought vidae was bad last year, just wait until these next few months get me riled up.

It might be hard to top me from last year, but I welcome the challenge good sir!

You're getting a tackle, and you will like it.

yfs is starting out strong! Now we just need Morton saying that it'll definitely be an OT and we'll be in business.

Bengals78
02-17-2011, 01:28 PM
The pick almost has to be a tackle. Backus really? Come on. Detroit needs to go tackle in the first. Fail of a draft if it isnt.


http://i.imgur.com/eyFZX.jpg

LonghornsLegend
02-17-2011, 02:59 PM
Jones has good hands, and inconsistent concentration. He'll make the really tough catches, and then botch the routine easy ones. When the routine, easy ones are for 70 yard touchdowns, you may feel differently.

This is true. That said, I'm not sure why some people are still down on him and question him as a top 10 pick yet AJ Green is a candidate for #1 overall. Julio did literally everything you could have asked out of him this season to answer the doubts people had. He's got size, speed, strength, he can go deep and excel with short passes, YAC, he's about as complete as it gets.


The Rams would be truly blessed if he lasted to their pick, but I really think he should be in play for the Cleveland pick. He's definately good enough to warrant that pick, and he's exactly what Colt needs. Colt isn't gonna be the type of guy to carry a team on his back, but put some guys like Julio around him, a TE who can run and catch like a WR, and you'll see what he can really do.


I think it'd be a mistake for Cleveland to ignore putting weapons around Colt asap. It's bad enough he has Baltimore & Pittsburgh 4 games out of 16, the least you can do is expect him to get through it with at least 1 go to weapon. I'm talking about a legit explosive play-maker, not a 2nd or 3rd round prospect who may or may not be that #1 guy they need. Massaquoi I think makes a very solid #2 guy.

BeerBaron
02-17-2011, 03:03 PM
I think it'd be a mistake for Cleveland to ignore putting weapons around Colt asap. It's bad enough he has Baltimore & Pittsburgh 4 games out of 16, the least you can do is expect him to get through it with at least 1 go to weapon. I'm talking about a legit explosive play-maker, not a 2nd or 3rd round prospect who may or may not be that #1 guy they need. Massaquoi I think makes a very solid #2 guy.

Cleveland's defensive front is just abysmal. If they have a shot at Bowers, Fairley or even Quinn, they need to take it. Elite defensive line talent will trump any WR in a situation like this.

LonghornsLegend
02-17-2011, 03:09 PM
Cleveland's defensive front is just abysmal. If they have a shot at Bowers, Fairley or even Quinn, they need to take it. Elite defensive line talent will trump any WR in a situation like this.

Their receiving options and play-makers are abysmal as well, so I don't see how that makes much of a difference. I'd look for some key additions in FA, not world beaters but maybe upgrades, maybe a Marcus Spears. I'd still want to place elite play-makers around Colt as my 1st priority. They can have an upgraded defense all they want, but you can't expect to score points with the cast they have right now.

umphrey
02-17-2011, 03:18 PM
Some NFL teams feel differently than you.
I don't dispute that they could play there, but the value difference is so huge that there is no way a 3-4 team takes them. For example, Quinn and Kerrigan I have in the 5-10 and 12-18 range respectably, but ranking them as 3-4 players they are about 2nd round value.

GB12
02-17-2011, 03:21 PM
This is true. That said, I'm not sure why some people are still down on him and question him as a top 10 pick yet AJ Green is a candidate for #1 overall. Julio did literally everything you could have asked out of him this season to answer the doubts people had. He's got size, speed, strength, he can go deep and excel with short passes, YAC, he's about as complete as it gets.
He was talking about James Jones there.

LonghornsLegend
02-17-2011, 03:21 PM
Robert Quinn as a 2nd rounder as a 3-4 OLB? That's pretty damn funny. He's about as fluid as you can get, it's not like he's some big muscle bound guy who just uses brute strength and has no lateral agility. It's one thing to say you prefer him in a 4-3, but calling him a 2nd rounder is a whole nother story....

SeanTaylorRIP
02-17-2011, 03:33 PM
Robert Quinn as a 2nd rounder as a 3-4 OLB? That's pretty damn funny. He's about as fluid as you can get, it's not like he's some big muscle bound guy who just uses brute strength and has no lateral agility. It's one thing to say you prefer him in a 4-3, but calling him a 2nd rounder is a whole nother story....

Exactly if you compare him to a guy like Orakpo in college you would see how much smoother and rangy Quinn is. Granted a lot of Orakpo's success in the NFL has been due to him slimming down and taking it easy on the weights but Quinn has that natural fluidity which would enable him to play OLB in the NFL.

TACKLE
02-17-2011, 03:40 PM
This is true. That said, I'm not sure why some people are still down on him and question him as a top 10 pick yet AJ Green is a candidate for #1 overall. Julio did literally everything you could have asked out of him this season to answer the doubts people had. He's got size, speed, strength, he can go deep and excel with short passes, YAC, he's about as complete as it gets. I really don't see what's holding him back from being viewed as a consensus top 5-10 talent. If it weren't for AJ Green, I see no reason why he couldn't go as high as #4 to the Bengals.


The Rams would be truly blessed if he lasted to their pick, but I really think he should be in play for the Cleveland pick. He's definately good enough to warrant that pick, and he's exactly what Colt needs. Colt isn't gonna be the type of guy to carry a team on his back, but put some guys like Julio around him, a TE who can run and catch like a WR, and you'll see what he can really do.


I think it'd be a mistake for Cleveland to ignore putting weapons around Colt asap. It's bad enough he has Baltimore & Pittsburgh 4 games out of 16, the least you can do is expect him to get through it with at least 1 go to weapon. I'm talking about a legit explosive play-maker, not a 2nd or 3rd round prospect who may or may not be that #1 guy they need. Massaquoi I think makes a very solid #2 guy.

Totally agree. Phenomenal talent and really took his game to the next level this year. I know this word is kind of taboo but I think he's a pretty safe prospect. Even if he doesn't turn into a perennial pro bowler, he can still be a strong, physical big bodied WR who move the chains and be a threat in the red zone.

fear the elf
02-17-2011, 03:47 PM
Their receiving options and play-makers are abysmal as well, so I don't see how that makes much of a difference. I'd look for some key additions in FA, not world beaters but maybe upgrades, maybe a Marcus Spears. I'd still want to place elite play-makers around Colt as my 1st priority. They can have an upgraded defense all they want, but you can't expect to score points with the cast they have right now.

Totally agreed. Let the defense be abysmal for another year if it means giving Colt every opportunity to be a good QB. Everyone agrees it's a QB league, can't win without one, so the best thing to do is try to develop Colt and worry about defense next year.

BeerBaron
02-17-2011, 03:51 PM
Their receiving options and play-makers are abysmal as well, so I don't see how that makes much of a difference. I'd look for some key additions in FA, not world beaters but maybe upgrades, maybe a Marcus Spears. I'd still want to place elite play-makers around Colt as my 1st priority. They can have an upgraded defense all they want, but you can't expect to score points with the cast they have right now.

It makes a difference because all teams, except those run by Matt Millen, place a higher priority on pass rushers while most devalue the WR a bit. If Bowers/Fairley/Quinn is there with Cleveland's pick, and they pass for a WR, I'll be absolutely shocked.

I know you want your boy Colt to get someone better to throw to, but it won't come at the cost of upgrading the pass rush. Even offensive minds like Holmgren and Sherman know that. If those top defenders are gone, then by all means address the major need at WR. But they won't do it over an impact defensive lineman.

irishbucsfan
02-17-2011, 04:46 PM
The thing about having confidence in your FO, is that they can take someone with a very high celiing like Aldon Smith and it just makes you excited. McCoy and Price pushing the pocket will help Smith while he develops, and vice versa. Mega D-line sexytime.

RealityCheck
02-17-2011, 05:13 PM
I don't dispute that they could play there, but the value difference is so huge that there is no way a 3-4 team takes them. For example, Quinn and Kerrigan I have in the 5-10 and 12-18 range respectably, but ranking them as 3-4 players they are about 2nd round value.
No. If Quinn bulked up 150 pounds, lost a leg and moved to NT he'd still have a 1st round value.

A Perfect Score
02-17-2011, 06:16 PM
I don't dispute that they could play there, but the value difference is so huge that there is no way a 3-4 team takes them. For example, Quinn and Kerrigan I have in the 5-10 and 12-18 range respectably, but ranking them as 3-4 players they are about 2nd round value.

Yeah this is so wrong it makes me want to cry a little. Both are legitimate Top 20 guys who can fit in either a 4-3 or 3-4. Personally, I think Quinn's best fit is in a 3-4 and if you put Kerrigan in a system like NE he could be a monster at OLB. I don't know what sort of kool aid you're drinking these days but I sure want some.

SRK85
02-17-2011, 10:56 PM
Makes sense but I am sure the bills will make a surprising pick like Akeem Ayers. Its impossible to predict who they will draft even though Scott does a great job of predicting the first couple of picks especially compared to other so called experts like Kiper and McShay. Good mock makes logical sense.

Dam8610
02-17-2011, 11:09 PM
No. If Quinn bulked up 150 pounds, lost a leg and moved to NT he'd still have a 1st round value.

ZOMG! QUINN WOULD BE A GREAT NT IF HE ADDED 150 POUNDS! IMAGINE WHAT A GREAT PASS RUSHING NT HE COULD BE! HE COULD PROBABLY EVEN DO A 360!

gpngc
02-17-2011, 11:14 PM
Don't see Locker going in round one at this point but I understand people love to make the geographic connection with Seattle.

The Seahawks NEED to add at least one more CB and there are a bunch worthy of that pick.

I think there is a GREAT chance the Panthers find they are not enamored with either Fairley or Bowers and end up going with Newton (or Gabbert).

PossibleCabbage
02-18-2011, 12:34 AM
I think there is a GREAT chance the Panthers find they are not enamored with either Fairley or Bowers and end up going with Newton (or Gabbert).

Long ago (in draft-time speak) I convinced myself that the most logical thing for the Panthers to do was to pick A.J. Green, since the only reasonable way to determine whether or not they have anything in Clausen is by providing him with weapons, and if Clausen sucks even with weapons then they're in position to draft Barkley or Luck next year.

Somehow, either I've made some sort of error here, or others have just not discovered this brilliant insight. I'm leaning towards the former.

LonghornsLegend
02-18-2011, 01:10 AM
Long ago (in draft-time speak) I convinced myself that the most logical thing for the Panthers to do was to pick A.J. Green, since the only reasonable way to determine whether or not they have anything in Clausen is by providing him with weapons, and if Clausen sucks even with weapons then they're in position to draft Barkley or Luck next year.

Somehow, either I've made some sort of error here, or others have just not discovered this brilliant insight. I'm leaning towards the former.



I actually think that would be a terrible idea for them. I'm tired of hearing "surround Clausen with weapons" honestly. He had Steve Smith at WR and he has 2 elite RB's. Those are plenty of weapons for any decent QB to suceed with. I didn't know you needed to give a QB three pro bowl WR's for him to be able to have a half decent season.


Ask Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy if they'd like to have one WR who was even half as talented as Steve Smith. Clausen sucks. You don't need to draft AJ Green to figure that out, it'll just be another weapon who won't get the ball on a consistent basis. Fairley is a much better option when your talking about the 1st overall pick of the draft.

PossibleCabbage
02-18-2011, 09:39 AM
I think you're seriously overrating how much of a weapon a 32 year old Steve Smith is.

A Perfect Score
02-18-2011, 09:45 AM
I'll take 32 year old Steve Smith by himself over the collective receiving cores of the Rams and Browns. Seriously. Line him up alone on the outside in triple coverage and I'd have more faith in his ability to make plays then I would in Brian Robiskie or Laurent Robinson.

LizardState
02-18-2011, 02:57 PM
why WOULDN'T Zona take a QB #1? Just asking......

I know they covet Von Miller, but so does Dallas & a bunch of others. If Miller gets past Zona, he could make it to Dallas & big smiles :) all around.

Babylon
02-18-2011, 08:51 PM
why WOULDN'T Zona take a QB #1? Just asking......

I know they covet Von Miller, but so does Dallas & a bunch of others. If Miller gets past Zona, he could make it to Dallas & big smiles :) all around.

Probably if they go the route of a Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb or a Carson Palmer would be the main reasons. Those guys probably make more sense than drafting Gabbert or Newton, who they've been linked to around these parts.

BeerBaron
02-18-2011, 08:52 PM
Probably if they go the route of a Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb or a Carson Palmer would be the main reasons. Those guys probably make more sense than drafting Gabbert or Newton, who they've been linked to around these parts.

I've read before that they're most interested in Kolb and Matt Flynn.

LonghornsLegend
02-18-2011, 09:04 PM
I'll take 32 year old Steve Smith by himself over the collective receiving cores of the Rams and Browns. Seriously. Line him up alone on the outside in triple coverage and I'd have more faith in his ability to make plays then I would in Brian Robiskie or Laurent Robinson.

Exactly. This shouldn't even be a debate. Look at who the best WR was on the Browns or Rams. Obviously this isn't the same Steve Smith as a few years ago but to act like he's not a massive upgrade over Danny Amendola as your #1 WR is laughable. Sam Bradford and Colt were throwing to guys who are at best #4 WR's on a team who isn't depleted at WR. Amendola isn't terrible out of the slot but which of those guys can beat a double team consistently?



Clausen was the most "pro ready" QB in the draft, but now he needs two potentially elite WR's to see if he's any good and somehow the other guys were able to figure out how to lead scoring drives consistently with far worse options to throw to. Ironic.

SF Dolphin Fan
02-19-2011, 09:22 PM
I agree Miami needs a running back and I wouldn't be disappointed if they drafted Mark Ingram. That said, I have to believe if one of the top quarterbacks is there (minus Ryan Mallett) the Dolphins pull the trigger. At this point I kind of see either Jake Locker or Colin Kaepernick (trade down a bit) as Miami's pick.

SF Dolphin Fan
02-19-2011, 09:28 PM
Can't go wrong with that Phins pick but I whole-heartedly disagree about the Phins potentially taking an OLB early in the draft as an alternative. Wake was a top 5 34OLB last year and Misi was a thumper against the run and improved his pass rushing as the season progressed. We need depth, absolutely, but we have more active pass rushing DEs than most 34 teams and have too many needs on offense to take a luxury-pick on D.It's hard to envision Miami going defense with the top pick, but they could definitely use another elite pass rusher. Misi is just okay in that area. Say Aldon Smith is sitting there at 15 and the Dolphins either aren't sold on the quarterbacks available or those top guys are gone, then why not add someone like Smith on D? Smith, Misi and Wake could all be on the field in passing downs. That could lift a good defense to scary good. Remember one thing the only way to beat the elite teams is to be able to pressure the quarterback.

nepg
02-19-2011, 09:40 PM
Chiefs drafting an OT is silly. If they didn't see it as a need last year and the situation at RT is better this year (Richardson developed into a quality starter - supplanting O'Callaghan who was solid in '09), why would they draft an OT? There's no logic in it at all. I could see Pouncey as a C or Wisniewski if you want to give them an OL. Other than that, they're in the market for more talented defensive linemen and overall depth on defense.

My pick for the Chiefs right now is Kyle Rudolph. He'll be the best pass catcher available when they pick (their #1 need - by far), and he can fit really well within the Chiefs' offense. They like using multiple TEs and he'd improve their ability to run the ball, move the sticks, and get the job done in the red zone. It makes too much sense to me. Add in that Pioli loves drafting TEs and Haley likes using them...

The team just doesn't have any definitive needs that I can see Pioli filling with a first round pick, looking at his tendencies and what he looks for and tries to accomplish each off-season.

bergo23
02-19-2011, 10:00 PM
I do think Manusky would love Ayers' versatility, but his toughness is a big question mark...and I have no idea how teams will evaluate that...he could go higher to the Texans...Wade would love to have him run in his 3-4.

Looking at this Mock, I see a couple of other options:

I could see the Bolts going with either Carimi or Castonzo, whomever they think would be the better RT.

My Darkhorse pick in the first is either Brandon Harris or Jimmy Smith...AJ loves corners in the first (Jammer, Cro, and Cason)...and I believe the Bolts may move Jammer to safety sooner rather than later, where he could become a Pro Bowler.

If they do go 5 tech, AJ Watt might be a great fit (of course he is gone in your scenario), but also Cam Heyward to help slow down those dominant run games in our division (Oak, KC).

Love your work Scott, it always keeps me coming back during the winter/spring coming into the draft.

LonghornsLegend
02-19-2011, 10:07 PM
Chiefs drafting an OT is silly. If they didn't see it as a need last year and the situation at RT is better this year (Richardson developed into a quality starter - supplanting O'Callaghan who was solid in '09), why would they draft an OT? There's no logic in it at all. I could see Pouncey as a C or Wisniewski if you want to give them an OL. Other than that, they're in the market for more talented defensive linemen and overall depth on defense.

My pick for the Chiefs right now is Kyle Rudolph. He'll be the best pass catcher available when they pick (their #1 need - by far), and he can fit really well within the Chiefs' offense. They like using multiple TEs and he'd improve their ability to run the ball, move the sticks, and get the job done in the red zone. It makes too much sense to me. Add in that Pioli loves drafting TEs and Haley likes using them...

The team just doesn't have any definitive needs that I can see Pioli filling with a first round pick, looking at his tendencies and what he looks for and tries to accomplish each off-season.



How would TE be a bigger need then OT? Moeaki is a pass catching TE, and a really good, athletic one going into his 2nd season. What is Kyle Rudolph gonna give them that he doesn't? I'm pretty sure they could find use for a OT before a TE. I think they are set at TE for a long time if he can stay healthy consistently.

PossibleCabbage
02-19-2011, 10:11 PM
I think they are set at TE for a long time if he [Moeaki] can stay healthy consistently.

Considering his career at Iowa, that's a pretty big "if".

nepg
02-20-2011, 05:17 PM
How would TE be a bigger need then OT? Moeaki is a pass catching TE, and a really good, athletic one going into his 2nd season. What is Kyle Rudolph gonna give them that he doesn't? I'm pretty sure they could find use for a OT before a TE. I think they are set at TE for a long time if he can stay healthy consistently.

Another pass catcher, which is easily the #1 weakness of this team. You can have more than one TE on the field at a time, and the Chiefs love to use multiple TE sets anyway. OT isn't a need, getting playmakers in the passing game is a need.

vidae
02-20-2011, 05:27 PM
I agree that OT isn't a need but I don't agree that Rudolph should be the pick. It should be an OLB or NT (Taylor if he is available at 21) before Rudolph.

MidwestJimmy
02-21-2011, 12:22 PM
Hello Scott

I just did a private (non-posted) mock, and we only matched on three picks:

7. Robert Quinn to SF
19. Corey Liuget to NYG
24. Stephen Paea to NO

So nobody feels left out, I will make a pick for Oakland for their first pick at #48: Christian Ponder (QB, FSU)

Observations
Cam Newton is too high for the Bengals. I have him going to Minnesota at #12.

A.J. Green dropping to Washington at #10 would be a big steal.

The Ravens need a CB, but not as much as WR or DE. They pretty much have no backup at DE and starter Cory Redding isn't great to begin with. It's a little hard to find someone to play there for BAL because in their "35 front" it's a DE/34E combo. J.J. Watt or Cameron Heyward would fit nicely for the Ravens in Round 1.

Akeem Ayers is a big reach for SD at #18. Would the Chargers put him at edge linebacker or ILB? He's the best blitzer in the draft, but he did play OLB in a 4-3. He would be good in a blitz oriented 4-3D like that of the Eagles, or perhaps the OLB/ELB spot for Baltimore to backup Jarrett Johnson.

Your Aaron Williams pick for the Packers is good, but if you want to get a little creative with choosing a backup for the injury plagued Charles Woodson you can have GB go OL in Round 1 and Ras-I Dowling (UV) in Round 2. Like Woodson, Dowling can shift between CB and S, allowing GB to play their 2-4 nickel even when Woodson is hurt.

PossibleCabbage
02-21-2011, 01:20 PM
Your Aaron Williams pick for the Packers is good, but if you want to get a little creative with choosing a backup for the injury plagued Charles Woodson you can have GB go OL in Round 1 and Ras-I Dowling (UV) in Round 2. Like Woodson, Dowling can shift between CB and S, allowing GB to play their 2-4 nickel even when Woodson is hurt.

Charles Woodson is injury plagued? In five years with the Packers he's started 78/80 regular season games.

I hate it when people conflate "He had an injury, and I noticed it" with "injury-plagued." Charles Woodson is aging, to be sure, but any CB Green Bay would pick at #32 would be fourth on the depth chart at the start of the season. "Dime CB" doesn't seem like a BPA pick.

nepg
02-24-2011, 03:29 PM
Cam Newton is too high for the Bengals. I have him going to Minnesota at #12.

No such thing as "too high" or "too low" when you're talking about QBs. You either take them or you don't. If you think it's "too high" to draft a QB, then you probably shouldn't be talking about drafting him at all.

Iamcanadian
02-26-2011, 01:50 AM
Pretty decent mock IMO. Just have 3 questions, Justin Houston and Brandon Harris look like 2nd rounders to me. I could also see Watt slide a little bit as Tyrone Smith and Aldon Smith show off their talent at the Combine.

GB12
02-26-2011, 01:11 PM
Pretty decent mock IMO. Just have 3 questions, Justin Houston and Brandon Harris look like 2nd rounders to me. I could also see Watt slide a little bit as Tyrone Smith and Aldon Smith show off their talent at the Combine.

There is not even one question there.

Steeler111
02-26-2011, 03:48 PM
Not sure Pouncey will be there at 31 for the Steelers... and I'm not sure he's a priority anyway. Steelers NEDD CB's, and more than one, if they are going to combat the spread attacks the better teams are throwing at them... average CB play has got to be addressed with THIS draft.

SRogers92
02-26-2011, 09:25 PM
No way in hell the Lions take Smith. A few reasons:

1) I'll say this again ... Jeff Backus graded out as the best LT in the NFCN last season, even over Chad Clifton ... he doesn't get penalized a lot and only gave up like 4 sacks, one of which was to Julius Peppers that injured Stafford -- so -- people assume he's bad. He's not. We run the ball best to the Left Side, too.

2) Yes, Backus is aging ... we drafted Jason Fox to be a possible replacement.

3) Jim Schwartz doesn't value LTs that highly. He even said so last year, essentially saying that all of the high ranking teams in the NFL made it to where they are without drafting LTs high(Colts, Saints, Patriots, Steelers, etc). He's right, too.


No way in hell we go LT. It's either OLB(Ayers), DE(one of many), or CB.

PossibleCabbage
02-26-2011, 09:37 PM
Since the combine has started, any and all pre-combine mocks are pretty invalid at this point.

Speaking of which, how soon is the first post-combine mock Scott?

Iamcanadian
02-26-2011, 10:43 PM
No way in hell the Lions take Smith. A few reasons:

1) I'll say this again ... Jeff Backus graded out as the best LT in the NFCN last season, even over Chad Clifton ... he doesn't get penalized a lot and only gave up like 4 sacks, one of which was to Julius Peppers that injured Stafford -- so -- people assume he's bad. He's not. We run the ball best to the Left Side, too.

2) Yes, Backus is aging ... we drafted Jason Fox to be a possible replacement.

3) Jim Schwartz doesn't value LTs that highly. He even said so last year, essentially saying that all of the high ranking teams in the NFL made it to where they are without drafting LTs high(Colts, Saints, Patriots, Steelers, etc). He's right, too.


No way in hell we go LT. It's either OLB(Ayers), DE(one of many), or CB.

Not sure who they will take but if they want Stafford to have a lengthy career, they have to find a young LT quickly or they will soon be looking for another franchise QB and have to start all over. Backus is an average LT at best and there is an ever present danger that he will be responsible for ending Stafford's career prematurely.
Where the Colts(Tarik Glenn-1st rounder before he retired and the Colts have been searching for a replacement ever since.), Saints( Jammal Brown-1st rounder in 2005), Patriots and Steelers draft, the solid LT's have been taken, so they are forced to look in round 2 or lower for their LT's. Hardly a good example. The Patriots got lucky with Light( 2nd rounder) but the Steelers have really struggled protecting Roethlisberger since they let their previous LT move on.
Mayhew makes the decision on whom the Lions draft not Schwartz, Schwartz may have input but Mayhew makes the final decisions.