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View Full Version : RB Adjusted 40s, 2011 Edition


Cicero
02-28-2011, 10:26 PM
Alright, here's how things work.

The formula for the adjusted 40 score is (Weight * 200)/(40 Time^4). The multipliers are as such in the formula to ensure both accuracy as well as simplicity -- the scores that result revolve around a 100-point scale. The average adjusted 40 score of all running backs is 98.5; for all drafted running backs, it's 102.4; for all running backs selected in the first round, it's 112.1. Consider adjusted 40 score to be a sort of speed score -- a higher number is better.

Raw 40-yard dash times have a minus .36 correlation with DPAR, carries and yards; remember, a negative relationship here would indicate that 40 times (which are better as they decrease) are strongly correlated with those rushing metrics (which are better as they increase).

This metric enjoys a .45 correlation with yards, carries and DPAR. It simply does a better job of predicting future success than raw 40 times, mainly by illuminating dramatic differences in size.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3337822

The results are below.

1. Mario Fannin- 125.5

2. Da'Rel Scott- 119.0

3. Roy Helu Jr.- 114.8

4. Brandon Saine- 114.2

5. Demarcy Murray- 112.6

6. Allen Bradford- 110.0

7. Jordan Todman- 108.3

8. Alex Green- 106.9

9. Jamie Harper- 105.0

10. Darren Evans- 103.2

11. Anthony Allen- 102.7

12. Delone Carter- 102.7

13. Shane Vareen- 102.4

14. Mikel Leshoure-102.3

15. Derrick Locke- 100.3

16. Johhny White- 96.7

17. Stevan Ridley- 95.4

18. Kendall Hunter- 94.5

19. Mark Ingram- 94.4

20. Ryan Williams- 93.9

21. Damien Berry- 93.4

22. Evan Royster- 90.7

23. Dion Lewis- 88.5

24. Graig Cooper- 87.7

25. Vai Taua- 86.6

26. Matt Asiata- 85.6

27. Jacquizz Rodgers- 84.6

28. Shaun Draghn- 83.7

29. John Clay- 81.8

Don Vito
02-28-2011, 10:29 PM
I always knew Fannin was a great athlete but I am in shock that he ran as well as he did. At his size I thought he was a low 4.5 guy, he has a lot of talent and versatility he could see himself drafted a lot earlier than we previously thought.

metafour
02-28-2011, 10:37 PM
Fannin will be the fastest H-Back/FB in the NFL.

Don Vito
02-28-2011, 10:43 PM
Fannin is a pretty good pass catcher too, he played some WR at Auburn.

Fannin is a carbon copy of Patrick Pass if you ask me, Pass was the same type of player at UGA that Fannin was at Auburn. Similar size with great timed speed, pass was a high 4.3 guy as well and was a good kick returner and pass catcher for us.

JoeJoeBrown
02-28-2011, 10:50 PM
This formula is a cool rule of thumb. Instinctually, this is why OSU fans were excited about Saine when he was coming in. He's a big dude that is really fast.

Unfortunately, he's just not a great RB. He may make it on ST and as a passing down RB/HB/Slot guy. I'd like to be proven wrong and see it click for him, but I don't see it happening.

Cicero
02-28-2011, 10:54 PM
This formula is a cool rule of thumb. Instinctually, this is why OSU fans were excited about Saine when he was coming in. He's a big dude that is really fast.

Unfortunately, he's just not a great RB. He may make it on ST and as a passing down RB/HB/Slot guy. I'd like to be proven wrong and see it click for him, but I don't see it happening.

Agreed with Saine. I always expected more out of him but he was pretty underwhelming every time I watched him.

REDSKINSWARRIOR82
03-01-2011, 01:06 AM
Da'rel Scott came second that's what am talking about.5'11 211 4.34/40. Terps : combine U.

Cicero
03-01-2011, 04:28 AM
Da'rel Scott came second that's what am talking about.5'11 211 4.34/40. Terps : combine U.

Maryland has definitely earned that title.

REDSKINSWARRIOR82
03-01-2011, 07:22 AM
Yes and wait still next year when Kenny Tate Terps FS goes to the Combine. 6'4 220 pounds sub 4.5 speed and 40+ vet.

fear the elf
03-01-2011, 07:32 AM
ESPN (20+ years ago) is one of the best things to happen to professional sports. ESPN (currently) is one of the worst.

WCH
03-01-2011, 09:21 AM
This was actually done by footballoutsiders, not ESPN. ESPN just has a deal with FO. And this is nothing more or less than a mathematically rigorous formulation of the age-old "size/speed ratio." That's a huge contribution because it takes a subjective analysis ("good size/speed ratio") and gives us an objective way to analyze it ("he has a speed score of 116").

What's the deal with Roy Helu? I don't get a chance to watch many Nebraska games. Good physical talent, good on-field production. Is he a sleeper pick, or does he have glaring flaws that make him a late-round guy? Reading Scott's report on him, he sounds a lot like Ryan Grant.

fear the elf
03-01-2011, 09:57 AM
To me, this is still mostly worthless. It's becoming more and more apparent that COD and agility is more important than straight line speed. Maybe a formula using results from other drills may be more interesting to me, but for the most part, I just think a lot of this kind of analysis is bull ****.

gutman54
03-02-2011, 01:52 PM
This was actually done by footballoutsiders, not ESPN. ESPN just has a deal with FO. And this is nothing more or less than a mathematically rigorous formulation of the age-old "size/speed ratio." That's a huge contribution because it takes a subjective analysis ("good size/speed ratio") and gives us an objective way to analyze it ("he has a speed score of 116").

What's the deal with Roy Helu? I don't get a chance to watch many Nebraska games. Good physical talent, good on-field production. Is he a sleeper pick, or does he have glaring flaws that make him a late-round guy? Reading Scott's report on him, he sounds a lot like Ryan Grant.

For my two cents, he was always a good runner. Now, he struggled a lot with injuries, and the offensive system wasn't best suited for him, however, he does have a good work ethic, and this may help him. I think he'd be a good mid-round guy, but I wouldn't take him before the 3rd round. He also did have a little trouble holding onto the ball, but I think he can be coached up to be a productive back in the league, though he may never be a number one work horse.