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View Full Version : Bucking the Trend on 2nd Round QB's?


LonghornsLegend
03-02-2011, 01:52 AM
As alot of people know the odds are severely stacked against 2nd round QB's succeeding at the next level, but there seems to be an usually large amount of QB's who could all go in the 2nd round.



Just for a history lesson, found this article (http://blogs.rotoworld.com/Fantasy_Football/2011/01/the_lack_of_success_of_secondr.php) that breaks it down pretty simple:


It's been a decade since the second round of the NFL draft produced a franchise quarterback. Drew Brees, selected in 2001, is the last signal caller to fit the description.

Second-round quarterbacks since Brees:

Jimmy Clausen (Panthers), 2010
Pat White (Dolphins), 2009
Brian Brohm (Packers), 2008
Chad Henne (Dolphins), 2008
Kevin Kolb (Eagles), 2007
John Beck (Dolphins), 2007
Drew Stanton (Lions), 2007
Kellen Clemens (Jets), 2006
Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings), 2006

* There were no second-round picks used on quarterbacks from 2002-2005.

Previous to Brees, you have to go all the way back to Brett Favre (Falcons, 1991) to find a legitimate second-round franchise quarterback. Between Brees and Favre, Jake Plummer (Cardinals, 1997) comes closest. Plummer finished his 10-year career with a 161:161 touchdown-to-interception ratio.



Quarterbacks drafted in the second round between Brees and Favre:

Quincy Carter (Cowboys), 2001 - 34 starts
Marques Tuiasosopo (Raiders), 2001 - 2 starts
Shaun King (Bucs), 1999 - 24 starts
Charlie Batch (Lions), 1998 - 52 starts
Plummer - 136 starts
Tony Banks (Rams), 1996 - 78 starts
Todd Collins (Bills), 1995 - 21 starts
Kordell Stewart (Steelers), 1995 - 87 starts, career 77:84 TD-to-INT ratio
Matt Blundin (Chiefs), 1992 - 0 starts
Tony Sacca (Cardinals), 1992 - 0 starts


If you generously include Plummer, the NFL is 2-for-19 on second-round quarterbacks since 1991.


While Kolb, perhaps Henne and Clausen, and in some people's minds (not mine) Jackson still have chances to buck the trend, what we can glean from this is that passers deemed unworthy of first-round picks but still skilled enough to be drafted a round later are ultimately unlikely to succeed. NFL personnel evaluators seem to know this in the backs of their minds, which is why they let these quarterbacks slip out of the top-32 picks.

We can apply the trend to this year's draft if a polarizing talent such as Washington QB Jake Locker slips into the second round after an up-and-down Senior Bowl.




Now this year, all these guys could potentially end up being drafted in the 2nd round:


Jake Locker
Ryan Mallett
Colin Kaepernick
Andy Dalton
Christian Ponder
Ricky Stanzi




If your a team thinking about taking a QB, and you prefer the 2nd tier guys, do you still take them in the 2nd knowing those odds? Do you trade up late into the 1st to buck the trend and prove you think he's a franchise guy? It's almost an anomaly for a 2nd rd QB to end up being a franchise guy at this point, those are some heavy odds stacked against them.



Or is this all just stupid. I mean, will a few picks really decide how good of a career he will have?

Caulibflower
03-02-2011, 03:47 AM
I think presenting the situation as one where teams are "2-19" is a little misleading. Unlike any other position, you can only have one quarterback on the field at a time, and if he's anything less than great, you're going to have some issues. A receiver drafted in the second round who his team hoped would be a #1 wideout, but turns out to be merely an OK player, is not going to be viewed as a bust; he has a role on the team and can contribute without necessarily being a dominant player.

So... more than any other position, quarterbacks have to actually be a full step above their peers to be perceived as successful players, because we never see the backups play, and the guys who don't look great playing are conversely designated as backups. A wideout can disappear for stretches, run some bad routes, and also make enough catches that the fan can be glad he's on the team. A quarterback who goes cold for stretches can't also go invisible. You're going to see him mess up every time.

So where I'm going with this is that having a good #2 quarterback isn't a bad thing. Teams love to have a fairly capable guy behind their starter, same way they want (and need) to have a capable number 2 wideout; it's just that there's this conception that if a player isn't on the field, he's not valuable to the team. A lot of the guys you listed had decent NFL careers as backups and spot starters. I'll modify the list a little:

Jimmy Clausen- One year in the league, de facto starter.
Pat White- Out of football (He does count as a bust, fwiw)
Brian Brohm- Three years of being a backup (A pretty poor one)
Chad Henne- Three years, two seasons as a starter. While he may not fit the "franchise QB" description, he's played alright and would be considered a terrific backup quarterback.
Kevin Kolb- Four years in the league so far, has started and is viewed as a potential "franchise QB."
John Beck- Four years in the league, 3 different teams. He has continued to find work, but isn't thought to have much starting potential.
Drew Stanton- Four years in the league. Has been a sometimes-solid backup. (Led the Lions to a win over the Bucs this year, for example, when the Bucs had their season on the line.)
Kellen Clemens- Five years in the league, still has a job. Starting experience.
Tarvaris Jackson- Five years in the league. Possible starter, but definitely a sold backup.

Of all those guys, only one is not collecting an NFL paycheck. They're not useless players, they're just not "the guy" on their respective teams.

Quincy Carter- Had serious potential, but was a headcase.
Marques Tuiasosopo- 8 years in the league.
Shaun King- 6 years in the league
Charlie Batch- 14 years in the league. After 4 seasons as a mediocre starter, the Steelers signed him and think enough of him as a reserve to have kept him around for a decade.
Plummer- 10 seasons, all as a starter. Could've played longer, and was cut from a team he led to the playoffs the previous year at the end of his career.
Tony Banks- 10 seasons, including the Raven's Super bowl year, where he started half the games. Frequent (albiet, again, mediocre) starter throughout his career, and another guy who lengthened his career by being a solid backup.
Todd Collins- 17 seasons, mostly as a backup.
Kordell Stewart- 11 seasons, starter, Offensive Player of the year at one point. Contributed at positions other than quarterback.
Matt Blundin- 5 years in the league.
Tony Sacca- Only lasted a season.

So out of all those guys, most of them actually had pretty solid, lengthy, NFL careers; they just weren't starters. And that's the thing; is a solid, #2 player worth a second round pick? At almost any other position, the answer is "yes" because you can find ways to get them on the field. Your backup quarterback (hopefully!) will never see the field, unless it's at the end of a blowout.

And, ultimately, when we're talking about franchise quarterbacks, we're literally talking about maybe a dozen human beings in the world who actually fit that description right now. So a guy who is among the top.... 50 at his position in the league is very likely to be panned as a player if he's a quarterback, while any of us would love to have the 45th, or even 60th best receiver on our team, because he'd be able to contribute without being a superstar. Unlike a mediocre quarterback.

bigfreak314
03-02-2011, 04:00 AM
Someone has to be the one to break the trend, sure there has been a lot of flops in the 2nd round at least there isn't the insane amount of guaranteed money the 1st round picks get and QB is probably the hardest position to succeed in, I personally think if you have a good basis on what you want in a QB, the team leader, poise in pocket, the guy that lives in the gym and film room, etc. and you luck up and see the guy has slid to the second why not pull the trigger?

Also a lot of those aforementioned 2nd rd guys were put in bad situations, T. Jackson gets teplaced by Brett Favre after leading his team to the playoffs the year before, John Beck's coach gets fired after his 1st year and the new coach brings another 2nd round QB he hand picks, White was drafted in the second with the same coaching staff that did this and knew he would only play hopefully 8-10 snaps a game(I wonder why the coach is on the hot seat). I think its all about if the guy is your guy and you get him for a discount, why not, even if historically the odds are against them.

evenar
03-02-2011, 06:05 AM
I think that if you have a need at QB, there is a 2nd round guy on the board and you are about to make a pick in that round, then you obviously pick the QB. Yeah, there is a reason these guys are there in the 2nd round, they have some serious flaws but also considerable upside (or they are just above mediocre in everything). If he doesn't pan out you will probably pick in the top 5 within a couple of years and have the chance to pick a franchise guy (Like Carolina this year, Detroit after the Drew Stanton pick or Chargers after Drew Brees had a terrible 2003 season).

San Diego Chicken
03-02-2011, 06:38 AM
2nd round is a very tough position for a QB. If a team is willing to spend a 2nd rounder on a QB, most likely they have a significant need there, but the player is sort of stuck in between a rock and a hard place, since an NFL ready quarterback pretty much never falls to the 2nd. The players that can fill an immediate need at QB are all going to go high in the first round. Thus, you're picking a player that needs to be developed without the time necessary to develop him. Even a rawer prospect in the first round, the NFL team wants to protect that investment as much as they can, while they feel they have less risk throwing a 2nd rounder into the fire.

BigBanger
03-02-2011, 07:03 AM
The first 3 rounds are for starters and star special team players (Devin Hester). You do not draft backups in the first 3 rounds. If they turn into backups, then they're a disappointment. All those guys listed were thought to be potential starting QBs capable of winning games. Not necessarily franchise QBs, but your starting QB nonetheless. Thats why those teams invested a high draft pick in them.

Most of the QBs mentioned have been given numerous chances to play or simply could not win a starting job. Drafting a QB in round 2 is pretty much worthless. The idea, which is talked about a lot around here, is that you pass up on a potential franchise QB in round 1 and then take one in round 2, mostly due to monetary concerns. That is plain stupid. If you're going to pass up the QB in round 1, then you better pass up the QB in round 2, because you have a significantly less talented player with not nearly the same potential and major question marks that indicate he's not going to be a starting QB. Thats why they're in round 2. Drafting a QB in round 2 is like wasting a draft pick on a potential starter at a key position. The draft isn't full of starting QBs. Some years you have multiple guys that go in round 1 and pan out or you have mid to late round projects that pan out, but that's it. The guy in round 2 is basically a guy that every team knows ain't worth big money and you're just drafting him on a hope that he becomes your starter.

You can go back into each one of those drafts and look at the players drafted around those QBs. You think Detroit and Miami wouldn't mind having Sydney Rice? Drafted one spot behind Stanton. LaMarr Woodley? David Harris? Eric Wright? Ryan Kalil? Kolb is the only QB seen with starting potential 4 years later. Stanton is a serviceable backup and Beck is an afterthought, 3rd stringer.

Teams routinely pass up on a lot of talented players for little more than a shot in the dark. The Panthers were desperate for a QB and had holes everywhere. They took Clausen out of necessity. Not because he was worth it, but because they felt they had to. Now, a team with holes all over the place, no first round pick, just basically wasted their second round pick on a kid whose never going to be the guy. What was the point? Every team watched Clausen go by... for a reason. A year later they're still looking for a QB and picking 1st overall. A major reason... they have been one of the worst drafting teams over the last two or three years, bringing in little to no starting caliber players. They haven't had a good draft since 2007. If you don't feel confident in the guy, then don't draft him. Most of those teams drafted those round 2 QBs because they needed one. No other reason.



I might also consider Kordell Stewart a success. He brought the Steelers to a couple AFC Championship games if memory serves me correct, but was, at the same time, the reason they never reached the Super Bowl. Soon as PIT drafted a franchise QB, they've made the SB 3 times and won 2 of them.

wogitalia
03-02-2011, 08:05 AM
Interesting topics, it's funny that a lot of those guys landed in pretty awful situations. Generally with teams who passed on 1st round quarterbacks then decided to pull the trigger.

How is the success in other rounds?

DiG
03-02-2011, 09:29 AM
ive said it several times before, i'll never promote taking a qb in the 2nd round. if you need a quarterback enough that you would take him in the 2nd round than why didn't you secure him in the first round? there are clearly enough question marks that you don't necessarily consider him a top flight prospect, and neither does anyone else. thats not to say he won't be successful but as history shows us, its unlikely. if you need a qb, and you feel strongly about a qb as a prospect, than you take him in the first round. the position is simply too important.

Halsey
03-02-2011, 10:07 AM
It seems to me a lot of fans think it's 'risky' to take a QB in round 1 and safe to take a QB in another round. To me, it's also risky for a team that needs a QB to pass on a first round QB prospect. If a team needs a QB, I think they're generally just better taking a guy in the first, if they like him, and addressing other needs with others picks and free agency.

Bucs_Rule
03-02-2011, 03:01 PM
Drafting a 1st round QB is ideal, but their usually aren't enough for every team that needs one to get one.

This year there seems to be many more teams then usual that need QBs. Arizona, SF, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota. Others like Cincinnati, Buffalo, Carolina, might decide that they need to get one too.

You have about 2-4 potential first rounders. Most agree that Gabbert and Newton are 1st rounders, Locker will be for many teams and some could have Mallet as one.

A couple of those might decide to go with what they have and draft a later rounder, still some teams are left empty.

Waiting until next year to address it really isn't a very appealing option. You might not be in a spot to get a great one and if you are you might get fired for being so bad. You could draft a late rounder, but the chances a late rounder will work is much lower then a 2nd one. They are even more raw and usually less talented.

bitonti
03-03-2011, 12:51 PM
i just went through a 2 round mock and only had Ponder in round 2. 4 Qbs in round 1. You'd think that more would go in round 2 (and maybe they will) but it's tough to find a spot for these guys... teams have other needs... round 3 could be the big QB bumper crop round.

descendency
03-03-2011, 01:19 PM
The numbers in that article are wrong.

2nd round franchise QBs:
Favre
Brees
Plummer

= 3/21 or 14%

Iamcanadian
03-03-2011, 03:46 PM
The numbers in that article are wrong.

2nd round franchise QBs:
Favre
Brees
Plummer

= 3/21 or 14%

I don't think you can call Plummer, a franchise QB. He was very average at best.

bigfreak314
03-03-2011, 04:06 PM
I don't think you can call Plummer, a franchise QB. He was very average at best.

At his best he was a pro bowler, problem was @ his worse he was a 4 int QB

GB12
03-03-2011, 04:07 PM
Well Favre was taken with the 33rd pick and Brees was the 32nd. So by today's standards Brees would have been a first rounder and Favre would have been just one pick off.

And I don't think you can count Plummer. He only threw more TDs than INTs 4 times in his career.

descendency
03-03-2011, 04:40 PM
I don't think you can call Plummer, a franchise QB. He was very average at best.

The author said "If you generously include Plummer" so I included him as well. 2/21 is pretty dismal as well.

Well Favre was taken with the 33rd pick and Brees was the 32nd. So by today's standards Brees would have been a first rounder and Favre would have been just one pick off.

Another interesting point. Basically, if you are not drafted in the first few picks of the second or outside of the second, you are basically a wasted pick if you are a 2nd round QB.