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View Full Version : Do the Teams That Need a Quarterback From 7-16...


GaMeTiMe
03-16-2011, 11:28 PM
..move back into the late-first to get a better value for one of these guys?

I'm not sure of how many teams have ever moved back and selected a quarterback with that pick, especially in the first few rounds.

I say this under the assumption that Newton and Gabbert go top-5, but even if one or both of them fall further than that there are still 6 teams (SF, TEN, WAS, MIN, MIA, JAC) that need a QB between 7 and 16. At this point Mallet and Ponder are big reaches in that area, and some would say the same about Locker.

Is this the year that rather than teams trading up from the top of the 2nd to scoop up a falling quarterback in the 20's, they'll trade back into that range to not reach for a guy with a lot of question marks?

A lot of people have 2 or all 3 of these guys somewhere in the 2nd, and while they're not necessarily well regarded as promising late-1st round QBs, it's really only because the playoffs teams obviously wouldn't sniff any of them.

With a lot of the teams picking from 20-32 probably salivating over the D-linemen projected in the top-15, I think it's extremely likely that a team like Washington moves down to get picks and grabs a guy like Locker late in the first.

ellsy82
03-16-2011, 11:54 PM
Admit it. You consider this move because your team is drafting late and you want a shot at a top defender in this draft.

Wrathman
03-17-2011, 12:00 AM
Probably about 20 rookies will grade out with first-round picks when the analysis is all said and done. I can't see anyone dealing out of those spots unless a too-stupid-to-refuse offer is put on the table.

49erNation85
03-17-2011, 12:02 AM
SF won't be taking a QB in round one period.Specially if PP,Miller,Quinn or even a DT is there.So you really only take a stab at Tenn who are hurting for a QB.But both QB could be a VY situation if not coached right or groomed right.

PossibleCabbage
03-17-2011, 12:27 AM
I'm thinking that there are a number of teams from about 26-32 who will be happy to move back to a high second for a reasonable price if somebody wants to jump up and grab Locker, Mallet, or Ponder.

Considering that the second round now starts on a different day, how hilarious will it be the first time a team picking at #32 trades back. If they have a "draft party" at the stadium, imagine the mood when that trade is announced.

GaMeTiMe
03-17-2011, 01:19 AM
Admit it. You consider this move because your team is drafting late and you want a shot at a top defender in this draft.

I'm an Eagle fan, unless we trade Kolb to move up (in which case the team trading back obviously wouldn't be picking a QB) I haven't thought much about moving up for a lineman. If we didn't draft Graham last year definitely, but sitting where we are or moving back are much more likely

niel89
03-17-2011, 01:26 AM
I'm thinking that there are a number of teams from about 26-32 who will be happy to move back to a high second for a reasonable price if somebody wants to jump up and grab Locker, Mallet, or Ponder.



I absolutely agree. I could see a team like the Ravens, Chicago, or any of those teams missing out on a player and dropping back. Maybe move back into the top portion of the second and grab one of the OTs that falls.

I personally don't see that many players that I consider a great value at 26 for the Ravens. If we miss out on the corner we want, then we can drop back into the second, grab some picks, and snag a RT.

FUNBUNCHER
03-17-2011, 03:30 AM
There will be a run on QBs from picks 25 - 32.

rawdawg
03-17-2011, 07:14 AM
Yeah, I think a lot of teams will try to trade up back into the first. Like you said, a lot of teams need QBs. I think those mid-1st teams that miss out of Gabbert and Newton will try to leapfrog each other to get the QB they want, between Ponder, Mallett, and Locker (if he doesn't go early).

If the Bears are faced with a draft board with none of the top 5 OTs, no Pouncey, no Liuget, I would prefer they trade down with a QB starved team and get an extra pick. I think they could still have their choice of Ijalana, Cannon, Wisnewski, Franklin, Paea, Austin, or Nevis if they trade back into the late 30s to early 40s. Plus, if they can get another pick in the top 100-110, they can possibly add a RB or CB to their draft.

bitonti
03-17-2011, 07:28 AM
I see it the other way... we could be looking at all the QBs gone by 20. There's huge demand and no supply.

PossibleCabbage
03-17-2011, 08:02 AM
I see it the other way... we could be looking at all the QBs gone by 20. There's huge demand and no supply.

If Mallet, Locker, and Ponder go in the top 20... something is seriously wrong, and those teams picking in the bottom of the first will have some very good players fall to them.

descendency
03-17-2011, 10:37 AM
In the last 20 years, can you name the QBs taken in the second round (from around pick 30 to pick 64) that are classifiable as franchise QBs?

I can. Brett Favre and Drew Brees. That's literally every one over 20 years. Elite QB prospects do not fall. If they do, they are the Brady Quinns and Jimmy Clausens. Aaron Rodgers was picked by the Packers because once an elite QB falls to a certain point (the high 20s), the good (smart) teams start drafting and will take elite QB prospects.

"Just take a QB later" is the single dumbest draft strategy ever.

bucfan12
03-17-2011, 10:44 AM
Thing is, I think only 2 QBs are going to be drafted in the top 10, although only 1 really deserves too (Gabbert). If they both go in the top 5, which is possible, I think you'll see some teams like Washington try to move down in the draft instead of reaching for Locker at 10 or Minnesota doing the same at 12.

Honestly, I really only like 3 QBs in this draft. Gabbert, Kapernick, and Dalton. Pondner I am really unsure of. He had a great Senior Bowl, but didn't impress throughout his Senior Year (yeah he was hurt, but even before that). He might be best fit for Seattle at 25 because of the WCO and he has shown above average Arm Strength so I think he can be a solid starter.

I think Locker, Mallett and Newton are all going to be flops in the NFL. I just don't like Newton's attitude and many teams were not impressed of his knowledge of the game and of reading defenses. He came from an offense where he made easy reads. (Gimmick spread offenses). I don't know how he'll adjust to the NFL level or whether he has the mentality to do so.

oldman9er
03-17-2011, 11:00 AM
Gabbert is the only QB that should have a chance to go top 10.

I hope SF stays put and takes Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton in rd 2. I can't see 6 QBs being taken before pick #45, so one of them should be there for the taking. I wouldn't trust Locker, Mallett, or Newton enough in the top half of round 1.

Babylon
03-17-2011, 11:05 AM
There will be a run on QBs from picks 25 - 32.

Also a run from 8-12.

bucfan12
03-17-2011, 11:05 AM
Gabbert is the only QB that should have a chance to go top 10.

I hope SF stays put and takes Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton in rd 2. I can't see 6 QBs being taken before pick #45, so one of them should be there for the taking. I wouldn't trust Locker, Mallett, or Newton enough in the top half of round 1.

Gabbert should be the only QB going in the top 10, but all signs are pointing to Carolina heavily targeting him at 1. Like I said, some team(s) will fall in love with the hype, and I'm not surprised that it will be the Panthers.

oldman9er
03-17-2011, 11:07 AM
Gabbert should be the only QB going in the top 10, but all signs are pointing to Carolina heavily targeting him at 1. Like I said, some team(s) will fall in love with the hype, and I'm not surprised that it will be the Panthers.

Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me. I don't think much of Clausen, never did. I think they take Gabbert or fall in love with Dareus.

SimonRath
03-17-2011, 11:16 AM
I am still failing to see how Gabbert is "special" enough to go in the top 5.. Can someone help me out?

oldman9er
03-17-2011, 11:33 AM
I am still failing to see how Gabbert is "special" enough to go in the top 5.. Can someone help me out?

Top 5 is pushing it, but as far as I can tell, he's got the desired:

Intelligence
Arm strength
Mobility
Work ethic
high character
accuracy (perhaps? or at least enough)
extremely high praise from guru Mike Mayock

... and all the rest have something(s) lacking from the list.

TitanHope
03-17-2011, 12:00 PM
As a Titans fan, I would rather take a stud defensive prospect at #8, and should the case come that Locker or Mallett fall into the latter end of the 1st RD, I'd want them to trade up from the 2nd RD back into the late 1st for the falling QB.

I'd hate to pass up on a stud DT, DE, OLB, or CB to trade further back in the first, and then run the risk of a team ahead of you picking the QB you're targeting or have another team with a QB need trade up ahead of you and snipe you. That risk isn't worth the reward of taking the same QB and gaining an extra pick. Too much of a gamble since the Titans desperately need that talented defensive player as well.

PossibleCabbage
03-17-2011, 01:08 PM
"Just take a QB later" is the single dumbest draft strategy ever.

But at the same time "Jake Locker is not worth the #8 pick he's worth the #24 pick, at the #8 pick take a player who is worth the #8 pick, and acquire the #24 pick somehow" isn't exactly an insane strategy.

Think of how disastrous it would have been for the Browns if they had taken Brady Quinn at #3 in 2007 instead of Joe Thomas. By not reaching for the QB just because they needed one, at least they got a franchise left tackle.

DiG
03-17-2011, 07:24 PM
i guarantee you that the redskins will attempt to trade back with most teams in the second half of the first. shanahan has already said that the skins would like to get more draft picks and they definitely need to try and acquire more picks without a 3rd or 4th rounder right now.

The_Dude
03-17-2011, 08:06 PM
I can see the Vikings also trying to trade back from 12 to grab one of the remaining QBs in the late teens or early 20s.... at least i hope that is what they do in order to grab a 3rd rounder that they gave away for Mr. Moss.

Roddoliver
03-17-2011, 08:52 PM
I'm an Eagle fan, unless we trade Kolb to move up (in which case the team trading back obviously wouldn't be picking a QB) I haven't thought much about moving up for a lineman. If we didn't draft Graham last year definitely, but sitting where we are or moving back are much more likely

I believe the Eagles can't trade Kevin Kolb without a CBA. During this lockout, the NFL draft will only have trade of picks for picks.

Iamcanadian
03-17-2011, 08:56 PM
Well, most GM's fully realize that until you find a franchise QB, your team has little chance to compete on a regular basis. So why would a GM whose team lacks a franchise QB take the risk of drafting one, it's rather simple, he wants to keep his job and owners don't like it when their teams lose consistently.
The QB's are going higher than the critics think, a lot higher, it is simply a case of supply and demand at the most important position on your team.
If the league settles in time for FA and trades to have a major impact, it will have to happen before April 28, the start of the draft, then some teams will settle for McNabb, Kolb, Matt Flynn, possibly Palmer, Tavaris Jackson, possibly Orton and Vince Young.
If they settle before April 28th then most of these guys will change teams, if they don't settle, a lot of these guys will remain on their original team and the QB's in the draft will be in even more demand, and go even higher.
IMO, 5 QB's will go round 1 if there is no agreement before April 28th, if they have settled, probably only 3 will go round 1. Remember, this isn't a normal draft year.

Keep it real
03-17-2011, 09:18 PM
Here is a good evaluation of each of this years QBs:

http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/column.asp?articleid=37565&column=60&sport=NFL

Babylon
03-17-2011, 09:24 PM
Well, most GM's fully realize that until you find a franchise QB, your team has little chance to compete on a regular basis. So why would a GM whose team lacks a franchise QB take the risk of drafting one, it's rather simple, he wants to keep his job and owners don't like it when their teams lose consistently.
The QB's are going higher than the critics think, a lot higher, it is simply a case of supply and demand at the most important position on your team.
If the league settles in time for FA and trades to have a major impact, it will have to happen before April 28, the start of the draft, then some teams will settle for McNabb, Kolb, Matt Flynn, possibly Palmer, Tavaris Jackson, possibly Orton and Vince Young.
If they settle before April 28th then most of these guys will change teams, if they don't settle, a lot of these guys will remain on their original team and the QB's in the draft will be in even more demand, and go even higher.
IMO, 5 QB's will go round 1 if there is no agreement before April 28th, if they have settled, probably only 3 will go round 1. Remember, this isn't a normal draft year.

Like your use of the word settle there, unless a team is a veteran QB away from the superbowl they shouldnt be thinking of aquiring any of those guys. Teams like the Panthers, Bengals, Bills, Dolphins and Redskins need to embrace the term rebuilding.

Iamcanadian
03-17-2011, 10:11 PM
Like your use of the word settle there, unless a team is a veteran QB away from the superbowl they shouldnt be thinking of aquiring any of those guys. Teams like the Panthers, Bengals, Bills, Dolphins and Redskins need to embrace the term rebuilding.

Funny, Atlanta took Ryan and became a contender almost immediately, Tampa Bay took a QB and just missed the playoffs, The Jets took a very inexperienced QB and haven't missed the playoffs since, Baltimore took a QB and they are in the playoffs, Pittsburgh took a QB and won a SB immediately, St. Louis took a QB and just missed the playoffs and on and on.
A franchise QB makes everybody around them better.
There is a reason why QB's have been taken #1 overall in 8 of the last 10 drafts and Miami is crying for passing on Ryan which would have made it 9 out of 10. GM's aren't stupid, they know they will never have a consistent winner till they find a franchise QB, that is the very definition of rebuilding and everybody in pro football knows it.

brat316
03-17-2011, 11:21 PM
decent line + rookie qbs usually = good things. and defense usually puts it over the top.

Jimmy Clausen i fear is or was always turning into David Carr. Dear in the headlights syndrome. Except Carr had flashes, only flash Jimmy is seeing is from the hits he takes.