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View Full Version : Put Your $ on ONE Guy to be a Total BUST in this Draft


J-Mike88
03-24-2011, 11:14 AM
There will be plenty of 1st round busts, as there always is. So there are more than one right answer here..... there probably will be a Vernon Gholston or Ryan Leaf of Jamarcus Russell or Charles Rogers, etc. type of huge bust, so I think there will be one answer that looks clear a few years down the road.

Who would you put your stock in if you had $1000 to bet on one guy being a total worthless bum and contributing nothing positive 4, 5 years down the road?

I'm only going to include guys that are guaranteed to go in the first round, so no Mallet or Locker.....and I only get 10 choices so I can't get em all in here... I will use 9, plus the "other" for you to choose and then write-in. I'm very curious to see the results because we have a lot of smart dudes in here.

I think I know who descendency will choose:
Both Bowers and Von Miller are 1 trick pass rushers = failures in the NFL. (miller is a speed rusher, bowers uses his bull rush)

Bob Sanders Dreadlock
03-24-2011, 11:19 AM
easy, Blaine Gabbert

Mr.Regular
03-24-2011, 11:22 AM
Giving me Nate Solder as an option? I'll take it.

His ceiling is very high, but if he goes to the wrong team, and doesn't develop properly, he could be brutal. He's a total project IMO....product of awesome measurables.

MaybeDavis
03-24-2011, 11:27 AM
I give my $ to Aldon Smith

Trogdor
03-24-2011, 11:28 AM
I don't buy Solder as a first round lock...

thenewfeature06
03-24-2011, 11:29 AM
Solder is an easy target for people I think, but I went Fairley.

Grizzlegom
03-24-2011, 11:29 AM
You think Solder is a first round lock? He gets my vote easily if he truly goes in the first.

wicket
03-24-2011, 11:31 AM
Contributing nothing after 5 years? Qb is easily the way to go. If one of the options is a headcase with a suspect character he is my man for this. Id go mallett but he feels like cheating so ill do newton

cajuncorey
03-24-2011, 11:35 AM
gimme aldon smith

Roddoliver
03-24-2011, 11:50 AM
I voted Gabbert because it looks like he will be one of the first picks, if not the first pick. His stock is not falling, so his bust status would be much more meaningful. My other options were Bowers and Fairley. But their stocks are dropping, for different reasons. They won't be top 3 picks, maybe not even top 5 picks.

Wrathman
03-24-2011, 11:57 AM
Newton leads this poll but he's getting no "love" in the thread. I'll be the first to step up and say Newton busts. Well, the first in this thread. lol.

thegreatone
03-24-2011, 11:58 AM
I's say Solder.

AntoinCD
03-24-2011, 11:59 AM
Based on where he's gonna go ill take Von Miller. I've been saying for a long time I don't see a fit for him at the next level. He is and will always be known as a pass rusher but I don't think he fits well at either DE in a 43 or OLB in the 34. If he goes to an attacking 43 team and rusher the passer at OLB ala Mathias Kiwanuka then he has a chance but apart from that I think he is going to struggle

descendency
03-24-2011, 12:13 PM
I really don't remember saying that about Bowers, but I probably did. I don't love Bowers, but he seems like a guy who could develop more than the others. I tend to like prototypically sized guys more than undersized ones.

I don't love Miller either. edit: I Don't love von Miller as a primary pass rusher. He's soft against the run. He's going to have trouble beating much better tackles in the NFL (the ones in the big 12 the past few years are ****). That said, he displays solid zone awareness and elite athleticism. He could be a nightmare at SLB a la Brian Orakpo or Mathias Kiwanuka.

However, I personally want nothing to do with Nick Fairley. He's physically soft (abnormally large amount of fat - even for a DT). His game is a power game and he has a quick first step, but he's out of shape. I don't think a 2 down DT should go in the top 5. Nick Fairley is Albert Haynesworth to me.

diabsoule
03-24-2011, 12:22 PM
I think there are a lot of guys in this years draft that could bust but I put my money on Nate Solder.

stephenson86
03-24-2011, 12:25 PM
Fairley because I think he could get lazy after his pay day.

J-Mike88
03-24-2011, 12:30 PM
It's a 4-horse race here.

With the bust rate of WR's historically, I'm surprised nobody has chosen either WR even though they look great right now.

I had to go Gabbert, edging out Solder and Fairley, but honestly, I haven't seen too much of Gabbert! How often were the Tigers on national TV last year?

TACKLE
03-24-2011, 12:31 PM
Either of the Mizzou guys....Gabbert or Aldon.

A Perfect Score
03-24-2011, 12:38 PM
I voted for Gabbert, but I think Newton, Smith and Bowers all have significant bust potential as well.

J-Mike88
03-24-2011, 12:48 PM
I don't buy Solder as a first round lock...
Doesn't everyone have him going about top-20?

PossibleCabbage
03-24-2011, 01:25 PM
Doesn't everyone have him going about top-20?

That was once the prevailing wisdom, but I think he's been jumped by 2-3 of the other OT guys at this point as he's much less likely to contribute immediately than a Carimi or a Castonzo and his tools aren't really that much better than Smith's and Smith has more quality tape.

Don Vito
03-24-2011, 01:25 PM
Other-Torrey Smith. The DHB comparisons may be unfair, but there are a lot of similarities between them and I think Smith is more like Troy Williamson. Great speed and decent size but very raw with inconsistent hands.

Out of the guys you listed, if I had to pick one I'd go with Cam Newton. He has the ability to be a very good NFL QB but I don't see it happening.

UKfan
03-24-2011, 01:25 PM
I gotta take Solder, massive project... if he were a QB he'd be sitting for years before playing

CC.SD
03-24-2011, 01:43 PM
Only 10 people so far saying Newton? Newton. Don't bet against the house.

Duffman57
03-24-2011, 01:46 PM
I'm not sure this is ok, but my choice is Mallett, and i think he will bust at the level of Ryan Leaf. He's a complete Douch. I've talked to some people who go to Arkansas, and he's a druggie at parties, and is an a** to everyone, talks about himself in the 3rd person and hits on girls by stupid pickup lines like "hi, i'm ryan mallett, you want to go back to my place" etc. He will be as big of a bust as Leaf, just not picked as high.

dannyz
03-24-2011, 01:55 PM
Newton. He is going to go to a team and think he is the best player that they have. I don't think he will be a leader and his team won't respect him.

PossibleCabbage
03-24-2011, 02:14 PM
Only 10 people so far saying Newton? Newton. Don't bet against the house.

Newton is a good choice, but there are many other good choices so it's tough. My money would be on Newton to be a guy who wins some games, and puts up some decent statistics but never really becomes "the guy".

My pick for "surefire bust" would be Fairley. The bust rate for first round DTs is stratospheric as it is, and I just can't see Fairley willing to give it his all consistently for a bad team when there isn't a paycheck on the line for him. And "unmotivated defensive tackle" is about as surefire a way to overcome natural talent to get a bust as there is.

49erNation85
03-24-2011, 02:19 PM
Freaking newton all the way here. He wont have work ethic of any of the QB in the draft imo. He might have one good year not then bomb the rest because of his ego ,

Prowler
03-24-2011, 02:33 PM
Gabbert. I foresee him following the career path of JP Losman...only as a potential number 1 pick. You don't draft backup QBs in the top 10. The Staffords, Palmers, or Vicks of the world go top 5, Gabberts of the world should go late 1st-3rd round.

I mean come on, a Junior QB from a Shotgun offense with little exposure in any games that matter. Newton at least demonstrated that although he's horribly inaccurate, he can rely on his freakish athleticism to beat teams and get the job done. The only chance that Gabbert has is if he sits on the bench for 2 years. He may be allowed to play limited action in the last 4 games of his 2nd year. Toss in the possibility of not even having OTAs or Mini Camps limited this year and he's screwed.

Babylon
03-24-2011, 02:54 PM
Not sure if we're only talking top of the draft guys but Mike Pouncey screams average to me, i guess average wouldnt technically be a bust. Second choice would be Ryan Mallett, i can easily see him self destructing. Hope i'm wrong on both guys.

GatorsBullsFan
03-24-2011, 03:20 PM
Cam Newton has Vince Young written all over him

OSUGiants17
03-24-2011, 03:39 PM
1. Gabbert- Greatest prospect to never be seen step on the field
2. Fairley- Had 1 good season and is now top 10? BUST!
3. Cam- Again 1 good season and is top 15? BUST! Plus he is a huge project

Aldon Smith will NOT bust

FUNBUNCHER
03-24-2011, 03:41 PM
THere's a keg of hater-ade in this thread!!!

Pass out the cups!!!

Solder IMO is most likely to be the next Robert Gallery, his film is flat out pathetic.

Picking a QB is too easy.

Torrey Smith really is nothing like DHB; much better hands, understands the passing game and how to get open, better route runner.

I'm afraid Bowers is going to be drafted top 15 and some team is going to find out he's got a serious knee problem.

Babylon
03-24-2011, 03:56 PM
THere's a keg of hater-ade in this thread!!!

Pass out the cups!!!

Solder IMO is most likely to be the next Robert Gallery, his film is flat out pathetic.

Picking a QB is too easy.

Torrey Smith really is nothing like DHB; much better hands, understands the passing game and how to get open, better route runner.

I'm afraid Bowers is going to be drafted top 15 and some team is going to find out he's got a serious knee problem.

18 to 15 for Cam, i think the QBs get too much attention in these things when position players bust at the same rate. The other thing is both those guys are projected to be right at the top of the draft (it puzzles me too).

descendency
03-24-2011, 04:03 PM
Cam Newton has Vince Young written all over him

That's why he shouldn't get wasted at Texas' parties.

Prowler
03-24-2011, 04:11 PM
Lets drown most of the top players in a sea of Hater-ade

1. Gabbert- Junior, System QB, Lacking "it''/Big Game
2. Newton- A bigger Mike Vick 2.0? Athlete or QB? Inaccurate, System QB
3. Bowers- Erasmus James 2.0? Can he power move bigger, more talented tackles?, is the knee going to be an issue?
4. Quinn- He missed the season...and has a brain tumor???
5. Fairley- Dedication to the game? One year wonder?
6. A.J. Green- Run blocking? Enough speed to beat superior corners? Is he ********(Wonderlic-10)

Scott Wright
03-24-2011, 05:28 PM
I voted for Cam Newton.

JoeJoeBrown
03-24-2011, 05:32 PM
Whomever the Browns draft first.

Seriously, it was between Fairley and Bowers for me. So many top pick D-Linemen bust in the league. I went with Fairley.

RealityCheck
03-24-2011, 06:08 PM
All 4 QBs.

Pat Sims 90
03-24-2011, 06:10 PM
Cam Newton= Akili Smith 2.0

TheFinisher
03-24-2011, 07:13 PM
Surprised no one said Tyron Smith yet, he's my worst nightmare for Dallas at 9. He's skyrocketed solely on potential, and for a guy as raw as him that's a scary thing to gamble on.

PossibleCabbage
03-24-2011, 07:20 PM
Surprised no one said Tyron Smith yet, he's my worst nightmare for Dallas at 9. He's skyrocketed solely on potential, and for a guy as raw as him that's a scary thing to gamble on.

Everything that scares me about Tyron Smith scares me more about Nate Solder. Smith at least kind of looks good on tape.

descendency
03-24-2011, 07:28 PM
Everything that scares me about Tyron Smith scares me more about Nate Solder. Smith at least kind of looks good on tape.

Solder is way more of an upside candidate than Smith.

He looks like a guy who can't put on weight.

PossibleCabbage
03-24-2011, 07:32 PM
Solder is way more of an upside candidate than Smith.

He looks like a guy who can't put on weight.

Solder also looks like a guy who will need to spend a couple of years putting on weight before he's ready to not get his QB killed.

Smith's combine numbers of 307 and 29 reps with long, long arms already suggest at least adequate NFL size and strength.

holt_bruce81
03-24-2011, 07:48 PM
DaQuan Bowers will be a bust.

Grizzlegom
03-24-2011, 07:51 PM
Solder IMO is most likely to be the next Robert Gallery, his film is flat out pathetic.


This statement makes me laugh because those two players are absolutely nothing alike, especially as prospects.

J-Mike88
03-24-2011, 07:54 PM
Cam Newton has Vince Young written all over him
True, perhaps, but Young was not even close to the biggest bust in his draft!
He's at least won a lot of games, and put up SOME good numbers.
He's no Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf, etc.

Bob Sanders Dreadlock
03-24-2011, 08:06 PM
True, perhaps, but Young was not even close to the biggest bust in his draft!
He's at least won a lot of games, and put up SOME good numbers.
He's no Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf, etc.

Being Vince Young isn't that bad if he avoids the Vince mental breakdowns.

J-Mike88
03-24-2011, 08:08 PM
Surprised no one said Tyron Smith yet, he's my worst nightmare for Dallas at 9. He's skyrocketed solely on potential, and for a guy as raw as him that's a scary thing to gamble on.
LOL, that cracked me up..... good stuff. Straight funny.

TheFinisher
03-24-2011, 08:10 PM
Solder also looks like a guy who will need to spend a couple of years putting on weight before he's ready to not get his QB killed.

Smith's combine numbers of 307 and 29 reps with long, long arms already suggest at least adequate NFL size and strength.

Smith's jump in weight makes me even more uncomfortable with him because now his tape is basically useless, going from 280 to 307 could make him an entirely different player on the field. Whether it's good or bad won't be revealed until he suits up for whoever drafts him.

Smith is the definition of boom/bust imo, a roll of the dice.

TheFinisher
03-24-2011, 08:16 PM
LOL, that cracked me up..... good stuff. Straight funny.

http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/4/1240265992468.jpg

J-Mike88
03-24-2011, 11:01 PM
So hard to tell on these sites, but I meant it, for some reason, it cracked me up..... he's a guy who just suddenly has risen.... same thing with Gabbert though. Who watched him play this year even?

SRK85
03-24-2011, 11:06 PM
I say Newton he will be picked higher than where he should and he will be an above-average QB at best, and an overall disappointment to black QBs.

GaMeTiMe
03-25-2011, 12:42 AM
If I had to put money on it it's Newton by far. Can anyone really see him in Cincinnati against Pittsburgh and Baltimore or in Buffalo against New England and the Jets twice a year? He's not an NFL QB, even when Vick was getting by on pure athleticism the good teams were still able to shut down his offense as a whole, and I'm not sure Newton will be outrunning defenses like Vick did.

MidwayMonster31
03-25-2011, 12:53 AM
I voted for Solder for the following reasons:
Somebody will fall in love with his quick feet and take him too early, then he might end up starting too early. His technique and strength need a ton of work. Lastly, 6'9 might be too tall for an offensive lineman, if he can't get low enough to get leverage on defenders, then anything could beat him.

Brown Leader
03-25-2011, 01:35 AM
I'm not sure this is ok, but my choice is Mallett, and i think he will bust at the level of Ryan Leaf. He's a complete Douch. I've talked to some people who go to Arkansas, and he's a druggie at parties, and is an a** to everyone, talks about himself in the 3rd person and hits on girls by stupid pickup lines like "hi, i'm ryan mallett, you want to go back to my place" etc. He will be as big of a bust as Leaf, just not picked as high.

If I was the star athlete of my school destined for a big fat contract I'd use that line too..or just WAZUP!

Top 10 - Bowers,
10-20 - A.Smith
20-32 - J.Houston, Clayborn, J.Smith

holt_bruce81
03-25-2011, 03:41 AM
So hard to tell on these sites, but I meant it, for some reason, it cracked me up..... he's a guy who just suddenly has risen.... same thing with Gabbert though. Who watched him play this year even?

I've watched Blaine Gabbert in 21 games.

Matthew Jones
03-25-2011, 05:32 AM
Riskiest picks by position early in the draft if you ask me:

QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas* - arrested, cocaine, emotional stability, footwork, maturity

RB Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech* - sophomore, injured last year, doesn't break arm tackles, no blocking/receiving

WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh* - arrest, threw coaches and teammates under bus, takes plays off, horrible route runner, high maintenance

TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame* - was never extremely productive in college, not a great route runner, not a top blocker, underclassman, injured last year

OL Marcus Cannon, Texas Christian - weight issues, no true position, workout warrior, heart and work ethic have been questioned

DE Allen Bailey, Miami (FL) - lacks pass rush variety, late off the snap, questionable instincts, weird fit into a defense

DT Phil Taylor, Baylor - arrested for assault, kicked off of Penn St. football team, weight/conditioning/stamina/work ethic issues, intelligence

LB Martez Wilson, Illinois* - instincts need serious work, does not have a true position, not flexible, may be overdrafted due to workout numbers

CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado - character is turning a lot of teams off, work ethic, potential workout warrior who skyrocketed up draft boards on the word of the Sporting News, easily the worst draft publication around

SS DeAndre McDaniel, Clemson - may not have a true position (OLB?), arrested for beating up his girlfriend and throwing her down a staircase

Scott Wright
03-25-2011, 05:40 AM
Riskiest picks by position early in the draft if you ask me:

QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas* - arrested, cocaine, emotional stability, footwork, maturity

RB Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech* - sophomore, injured last year, doesn't break arm tackles, no blocking/receiving

WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh* - arrest, threw coaches and teammates under bus, takes plays off, horrible route runner, high maintenance

TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame* - was never extremely productive in college, not a great route runner, not a top blocker, underclassman, injured last year

OL Marcus Cannon, Texas Christian - weight issues, no true position, workout warrior, heart and work ethic have been questioned

DE Allen Bailey, Miami (FL) - lacks pass rush variety, late off the snap, questionable instincts, weird fit into a defense

DT Phil Taylor, Baylor - arrested for assault, kicked off of Penn St. football team, weight/conditioning/stamina/work ethic issues, intelligence

LB Martez Wilson, Illinois* - instincts need serious work, does not have a true position, not flexible, may be overdrafted due to workout numbers

CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado - character is turning a lot of teams off, work ethic, potential workout warrior who skyrocketed up draft boards on the word of the Sporting News, easily the worst draft publication around

SS DeAndre McDaniel, Clemson - may not have a true position (OLB?), arrested for beating up his girlfriend and throwing her down a staircase

I am with you on every one except Rudolph.

AntoinCD
03-25-2011, 07:04 AM
I am with you on every one except Rudolph.

I agree Rudolph looks like a good player and is relatively safe, however 8 career TDs when playing in an offense with Michael Floyd and Golden Tate for most of it is worrying. Added to the fact that he has never had over 33 receptions in a season. Potentially he can be very good but Im not sure he will ever become a great TE

J-Mike88
03-25-2011, 08:06 AM
I've watched Blaine Gabbert in 21 games.

holt_bruce81
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Missouri

Perfect.
Did he get your vote here?

MidwestJimmy
03-25-2011, 10:50 AM
I figured Newton would be running away with the voting. He doesn't know how to read defenses and his crooked father will make him a head case with an attitude problem.

Here are some honorable mentions not listed in the poll:

1. Corey Liuget: He seems to be rising just because of good workouts. That's always a red flag.

2. Akeem Ayers: He played edge (rushing) linebacker in UCLA's 4-3 under defense, but he dropped into coverage much more than rushed the quarterback. He may be good in coverage, but does that warrant a first round grade for a linebacker? The only place where Ayers might blossom is Green Bay, since the guy opposite Clay Matthews is mostly a coverage guy too.

3. Jake Locker: A year ago he was looked at as a #1 pick for 2011. Then he played his senior season. Like Chelsea Handler would say: Ooopsie!

4. The five-headed hydra monster of J.J. Watt, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, Christian Ballard, and Allen Bailey. These are all tweener 280-285 pound guys who are too big to play rushing DE and too small to play 3-4 end. They are perfect for a hybrid defense where a DE and 34E are the same guy. Those teams are Baltimore, Buffalo, and Jacksonville. Even if all those teams take a 4/5-tech combo end (and the Bills don't even need one), that still leaves two left over.

Iamcanadian
03-25-2011, 01:31 PM
I am with you on every one except Rudolph.

Me too except I like Bailey a bit. Other than these guys, I'd want my team to take almost everybody that the other posters have suggested as flops.

PossibleCabbage
03-25-2011, 02:21 PM
4. The five-headed hydra monster of J.J. Watt, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, Christian Ballard, and Allen Bailey. These are all tweener 280-285 pound guys who are too big to play rushing DE and too small to play 3-4 end. They are perfect for a hybrid defense where a DE and 34E are the same guy. Those teams are Baltimore, Buffalo, and Jacksonville. Even if all those teams take a 4/5-tech combo end (and the Bills don't even need one), that still leaves two left over.

280-285 is not too small to play 3-4 end. Brett Keisel is listed at 285, so he's that heavy or smaller. Hell, both superbowl teams played a 5-tech who was 290 or less (C.J. Wilson for Green Bay). I don't even need to bring out the aphorism "it's how they play, not how they weigh" to justify these guys since it's not like any of them would be simply unable to put on 10 pounds if they needed to.

Moreover, sure they're too big to play the classic RDE in the 4-3 defense... but so what? Doesn't mean they can't play the classic LDE in the 4-3 defense, and just because a guy can't play on one side doesn't mean he can't be a very good player on the other side. Remember, Reggie White and Aaron Kampman were/are both LDEs, it's not exactly a valueless position. That, and it's not as though 4-3 defenses have "rush DEs"... every defensive end in the classic 4-3 defense has to rush the passer and stop the run.

MidwestJimmy
03-25-2011, 02:22 PM
How about the riskiest player at a position nobody pays attention to but should:

FB: Stanley Havili (USC)
A scouting report says he will need to become a better blocker. He's a fullback. That's like saying a kicker needs to get better at kicking the ball. He is mostly a receiving back, which will garner the attention of West Coast offense teams. Larry Centers was a receiving specialist in the NFL as a FB, but how many teams are interested in that? A questionable blocker, whether in the running game, passing game, or both, should not be ahead or that close to Owen Marecic (Stn) or Anthony Sherman (UConn) on draft boards.

Babylon
03-25-2011, 03:48 PM
I agree Rudolph looks like a good player and is relatively safe, however 8 career TDs when playing in an offense with Michael Floyd and Golden Tate for most of it is worrying. Added to the fact that he has never had over 33 receptions in a season. Potentially he can be very good but Im not sure he will ever become a great TE

Rudolph was on a pace to catch 56 passes this year before his injury and would probably have had more with the cupcake schedule the Irish had. I think if he's healthy he is as good of a prospect at the position as we've seen in years. If he had been able to perform at the combine i think we would have seen high 4.5 speed at 260 lbs. Health is no doubt a major issue.

MidwestJimmy
03-25-2011, 05:05 PM
Doesn't mean they can't play the classic LDE in the 4-3 defense, and just because a guy can't play on one side doesn't mean he can't be a very good player on the other side.

Good point Cabbage. It's just that any DE drafted as high as those guys will be might later be considered a little disappointing if they wind up just being run stopping left ends (known as "base ends" in fancy coach jargon). Some good pass rushers may come from the left side but usually are on the right side (against blind-side LOTs). But I could be wrong about all five of the ones I mentioned. Maybe all of them will practically be able to pick up the whole stadium and dump everybody out of it like in a Japanese monster movie. If they do then more power to them. I've been wrong before, and I will be wrong again many times.

PossibleCabbage
03-25-2011, 05:23 PM
Doesn't mean they can't play the classic LDE in the 4-3 defense, and just because a guy can't play on one side doesn't mean he can't be a very good player on the other side.

Good point Cabbage. It's just that any DE drafted as high as those guys will be might later be considered a little disappointing if they wind up just being run stopping left ends (known as "base ends" in fancy coach jargon). Some good pass rushers may come from the left side but usually are on the right side (against blind-side LOTs). But I could be wrong about all five of the ones I mentioned. Maybe all of them will practically be able to pick up the whole stadium and dump everybody out of it like in a Japanese monster movie. If they do then more power to them. I've been wrong before, and I will be wrong again many times.

I think, also, that the difference between the "left side" and "the right side" is diminishing somewhat in the modern NFL. Formerly your left tackle was your pass blocker and your right tackle was your road grader, so your right end was your pass rusher and your left end was your run stuffer. However, NFL strategy is not static. Teams eventually figured out that even if it is the blind side, if the guy on the left is a hall of fame calibre player, then you send pressure elsewhere when you do so (especially if the right tackle can barely pass block.) Especially considering that the defensive trend in the modern NFL is "attacking defense" where the defense will highlight, create, and target weak points in pass blocking with shifts, stunts, multiple blitzes, zone dogs, etc. Similarly, offenses have figured out that often times the easiest defensive lineman to run over is the "pass rushing end", so you run behind the left tackle not the right tackle.

So I think that in the modern NFL, right ends and left ends have to be able to rush the passer and stop the run. Right tackles and left tackles have to be able to run block and pass block. Remember, also, that when it comes to DEs "getting pressure" is oftentimes very valuable in and of itself, after all most of the time on third down (and all of the time on fourth down) an incomplete pass is just as good as a sack.

So I'd say that when you draft a guy, and he's a good player then you should be happy no matter what side he plays on unless there's a huge gulf in draft position vs. positional value (like Gallery #2 overall, even though he's a pretty good guard.) Good base ends are worth first round picks, maybe not high firsts, but firsts.

J-Mike88
03-25-2011, 08:44 PM
I think, also, that the difference between the "left side" and "the right side" is diminishing somewhat in the modern NFL. Formerly your left tackle was your pass blocker and your right tackle was your road grader, so your right end was your pass rusher and your left end was your run stuffer.
That's because Clay Matthews was moved to the Packers left side, over the offensive right tackle.

Anyway, not a single vote for Julio Jones, very surprising.
If he turns out to be just a Crabtree or worse, it will be interesting looking back......

PossibleCabbage
03-25-2011, 09:03 PM
That's because Clay Matthews was moved to the Packers left side, over the offensive right tackle.

I think you're mistaking a symptom for a cause.

J-Mike88
03-26-2011, 08:10 AM
AntoinCD has some ballz... the only guy here to choose Von Miller.
So if he turns into an Aaron Maybin, he deserves some serious props!

I like the guys with the guts to go out on a limb against the grain!
Also 2 guys with AJ Green chosen..... I tip my caps to you 2.
WR's bust a lot.

Flyboy
03-26-2011, 11:21 AM
Blaine Gabbert. I just do not see it...

http://images2.makefive.com/images/entertainment/television/favorite-arrested-development-character/ann-veal-aka-her-7.jpg

... him?

Babylon
03-26-2011, 12:07 PM
AntoinCD has some ballz... the only guy here to choose Von Miller.
So if he turns into an Aaron Maybin, he deserves some serious props!

I like the guys with the guts to go out on a limb against the grain!
Also 2 guys with AJ Green chosen..... I tip my caps to you 2.
WR's bust a lot.

A.J. is starting to scare me a little and i love the guy. I thought he was a major reason why Matthew Stafford was the #1 pick in the draft. He seems to not be putting the effort into things as much as he should. Has had a reputation of not grasping things either. It didnt bother me that much that he was terrible in the wonderlic but i was dissapointed he didnt run at his pro day. At the combine Green was a high 4.4 guy but after Kris Durham ran 4.4s at the Georgia pro day i would have been grabbing the nearest pair of shoes and ran out there to get retimed. Might see a draft day drop for him especially if 3 QBs go in the top 10.

thebow305
03-26-2011, 12:16 PM
I think Fairley, Solder and Amukamara will be less than ideal pro players.

Fairley because of the work ethic and attitude, the other two because I've never bought into the hype. Never understood all the love for Prince. I think the defense he played him made him better than he was and actually hid his greatest flaws. If he's not in the right system, he's going to get burnt and exposed repeatedly in the NFL.

brasho
03-27-2011, 06:56 AM
I'm not sure this is ok, but my choice is Mallett, and i think he will bust at the level of Ryan Leaf. He's a complete Douch. I've talked to some people who go to Arkansas, and he's a druggie at parties, and is an a** to everyone, talks about himself in the 3rd person and hits on girls by stupid pickup lines like "hi, i'm ryan mallett, you want to go back to my place" etc. He will be as big of a bust as Leaf, just not picked as high.

Does the Ryan Mallett pick-up line work? I may have to try it.


I don't know if this guy is as high-profile as the others and counts, but I'm picking Adrian Clayborn. A one-armed RDE-only without great upfield explosion doesn't look like a recipe for success to me.

brasho
03-27-2011, 07:09 AM
I voted for Solder for the following reasons:
Somebody will fall in love with his quick feet and take him too early, then he might end up starting too early. His technique and strength need a ton of work. Lastly, 6'9 might be too tall for an offensive lineman, if he can't get low enough to get leverage on defenders, then anything could beat him.

He's 6'8. One inch taller than Tony Boselli and Orlando Pace were and Marcus McNeill is, an inch shorter than Jonathan Ogden was and Jared Gaither, Demar Dotson, and King Dunlap are, and the same height as Jeremy Trueblood. None of these players have ever had the height as a reason for their failures.

I don't think his height is nearly important as his playing temperament and consistency which I feel are the areas where he is most lacking.

J-Mike88
03-27-2011, 08:04 AM
Didn't Solder get whipped during Senior Bowl week?

FUNBUNCHER
03-27-2011, 11:56 AM
Solder is one of those guys whose play will never live up to his physical potential IMO.

I think he develops into a starter, but I doubt he's a future All-Pro.

That natural feel for the position when you watch him for extended plays doesn't seem to be there, despite his athleticism and prototypical size.

Solder has Boselli/Munoz/Ogden type tools, but not 1/5th their game.

Scott Wright
03-27-2011, 12:00 PM
Solder would probably have been my second choice in this poll.

I do like Solder, but I'd be scared as hell to draft him. However, what makes me give him the benefit of the doubt is that many of the top defensive prospects I've spoken to this year list Solder as the best offensive linemen they faced either during college or at the Senior Bowl. I always say players know players, so that carries a lot of weight with me.

FUNBUNCHER
03-27-2011, 12:30 PM
Solder would probably have been my second choice in this poll.

I do like Solder, but I'd be scared as hell to draft him. However, what makes me give him the benefit of the doubt is that many of the top defensive prospects I've spoken to this year list Solder as the best offensive linemen they faced either during college or at the Senior Bowl. I always say players know players, so that carries a lot of weight with me.

Great nugget, Scott.

Player opinions about other players carry a lot of weight with me too.

A familiar anecdote told often on sports radio in D.C. is how Redskins vets knew after watching Desmond Howard in ONE TC practice that he couldn't play WR in the NFL because he couldn't get open against press coverage and was too easily knocked off his routes.

I still believe in a WCO Desmond Howard would have been a star, but the point is players often know about another player before anyone in the media or fans do.

Iamcanadian
03-27-2011, 01:19 PM
I'm thinking Marcus Cannon will be a huge disappointment, simply because he will never get himself into shape to play 4 quarters. Hopefully a light finally goes on but I doubt it. Just a complete waste of 1st round talent.

MidwestJimmy
03-28-2011, 12:45 PM
So I think that in the modern NFL, right ends and left ends have to be able to rush the passer and stop the run. Right tackles and left tackles have to be able to run block and pass block.

This is a good thing because it increases the skill level of the players at those positions that paying fans are watching.

ChiFan24
03-28-2011, 01:32 PM
I went Bowers because I think he's the most likely combination of high draft pick/crappiness. It could be Von Miller too, if he's used as a 3-4 OLB. Solder will suck, but I don't think he goes high enough to be in the conversation. I'm 50-50 on Fairley, but I could just as easily see him as the best player in this draft.

SenorGato
03-28-2011, 01:50 PM
Can someone explain to me why Von Miller isn't a 3-4 OLB prospect here? What is the major difference between him and Clay Matthews as prospects besides for Miller probably being less juiced and a way more accomplished college pass rusher?

FUNBUNCHER
03-28-2011, 02:10 PM
I think a competent DC will scheme Von Miller to be successful in any defense set, whether it's a base 43 or 34.

He's simply too physically gifted not to fit into any defense at outside LB.

DeathbyStat
03-28-2011, 02:34 PM
Nick Fairley-Poor motor and technique could very well lead to bust, plus he needs to tone down his play to fit into the new anti violence NFL.

Von Miller-Could be a bust if he doesn't go to a 3-4 team

Blaine Gabbert-pocket awareness is lacking, don't think he will completely bust but he won't live up to number one overall pick status if he drafted there.

AJ Green-Don't think he will be a bust, but he might be more Greg Jennings than Randy Moss.

Prince Amakumura-a little stiff in the hips, don't think he will be an elite cover corner, but won't be a bust

DaQuan Bowers-Knee injury concerns me, solid all around DE not an elite pass rusher so won't live up to being draft in the top ten

Nate Solder-Not sure he can play with the consistent leverage needed to be successful. One of the players most likely to bust.

Julio Jones-unless injuries take over can't see him being a bust. Anquan bolden type

Cam Newton-Soon he will be an icon and an entertainer on ESPN's College Football Live

J-Mike88
03-28-2011, 02:44 PM
Can someone explain to me why Von Miller isn't a 3-4 OLB prospect here? What is the major difference between him and Clay Matthews as prospects besides for Miller probably being less juiced and a way more accomplished college pass rusher?
Miller would be a dream 3-4 OLB for the Packers and Dom Capers. SO no, I can't explain why you say he's not a 3-4 OLB prospect. I think he is.

He's Derrick Thomas if you ask me. But then again, a lot of people here probably don't know who the hell Derrick Thomas is/was.

TACKLE
03-28-2011, 02:51 PM
Miller would be a dream 3-4 OLB for the Packers and Dom Capers. SO no, I can't explain why you say he's not a 3-4 OLB prospect. I think he is.

He's Derrick Thomas if you ask me. But then again, a lot of people here probably don't know who the hell Derrick Thomas is/was.

Who's Derrick Thomas? Never heard of him. Probably just some obscure player from way back that only you know about.

jnew76
03-28-2011, 05:45 PM
Last week I heard Mayock say that he would not draft Nick Fairley in the first round. Anyone have any insight as to what is NOT being said about Fairley? It seems everyone has some off the field concerns about him, but it seems none of them have said why specifically. Can anyone fill me in on any specifics that I am missing?

Prowler
03-28-2011, 06:26 PM
Last week I heard Mayock say that he would not draft Nick Fairley in the first round. Anyone have any insight as to what is NOT being said about Fairley? It seems everyone has some off the field concerns about him, but it seems none of them have said why specifically. Can anyone fill me in on any specifics that I am missing?

What I'm hearing is that he lacks the intangibles to be great. He'll become what Albert Haynesworth was for the Redskins this year. All talent and no heart. He's the Jamarcus Russell of DTs.

All of that is super harsh, I wouldn't take him top 5, but anything around 10 or later should be solid.

ellsy82
03-29-2011, 01:19 AM
What I'm hearing is that he lacks the intangibles to be great. He'll become what Albert Haynesworth was for the Redskins this year. All talent and no heart. He's the Jamarcus Russell of DTs.

All of that is super harsh, I wouldn't take him top 5, but anything around 10 or later should be solid.

Kind of knit-picking aren't we? From his play on the field this year you have to consider that he could be the next Julius Peppers. The most dominant defensive lineman in college football in 2010. That statement cannot be denied. Playing against tough competition and dominating that position cannot be ignored.

Now, you can say, well he's a dick, or a dirty player, or not a team player all you want to. Lots of Hall of Famers would be viewed the same way with all the extra media exposure that these kids get these days. Would you pass on the next Lawrence Taylor? Just don't say you wouldn't take him in the top 5 if Marcell Dareus is being considered there. Fairley is twice the athlete and a better football player. All this talk about him dropping out of the top 5 is ridiculous in my opinion.

BTW, I wasn't personally attacking your opinion, but the opinions of everyone who things Fairley should now drop out of the top 5 because of character flags. The defensive line is a nasty, cut-throat place to start a career at...I'd want my line to be as nasty as possible to compensate.

Prowler
03-29-2011, 01:42 AM
Kind of knit-picking aren't we? From his play on the field this year you have to consider that he could be the next Julius Peppers. The most dominant defensive lineman in college football in 2010. That statement cannot be denied. Playing against tough competition and dominating that position cannot be ignored.

Now, you can say, well he's a dick, or a dirty player, or not a team player all you want to. Lots of Hall of Famers would be viewed the same way with all the extra media exposure that these kids get these days. Would you pass on the next Lawrence Taylor? Just don't say you wouldn't take him in the top 5 if Marcell Dareus is being considered there. Fairley is twice the athlete and a better football player. All this talk about him dropping out of the top 5 is ridiculous in my opinion.

BTW, I wasn't personally attacking your opinion, but the opinions of everyone who things Fairley should now drop out of the top 5 because of character flags. The defensive line is a nasty, cut-throat place to start a career at...I'd want my line to be as nasty as possible to compensate.

His problem was not being nasty or aggressive, its lacking dedication. Its not that he's LT, its that he's soft. Its not my opinion, its the opinion of scouts and people who are actually able to meet with him and judge for themselves. I have to take them at their word.

ellsy82
03-29-2011, 01:49 AM
Understandable. But if you're going to rank a guy like Nate Solder or Donte Moch as first and second rounders respectively (or Tyron Smith), based soley off their potential, then you should do the same for Fairley. I'd be totally happy with him slipping to 1.31, I just highly doubt any team is dumb enough to let him out of the top 5.

I for one have never seen his supposed lack of dedication. Only heard stories. Conjecture. Whispers and such. What it ultimately comes down to it for me, is can he fit my scheme. Carolina got to the Superbowl, primarily on the back of Peppers. If Fairley has the same athletic ability, it would be hard for me to pass him up. Peppers isn't exactly the most high-motor, dedicated player, but he did Carolina great for his tenure there. Its quite possible that Rivera thinks the same thing.

AntoinCD
03-29-2011, 05:43 AM
Understandable. But if you're going to rank a guy like Nate Solder or Donte Moch as first and second rounders respectively (or Tyron Smith), based soley off their potential, then you should do the same for Fairley. I'd be totally happy with him slipping to 1.31, I just highly doubt any team is dumb enough to let him out of the top 5.

I for one have never seen his supposed lack of dedication. Only heard stories. Conjecture. Whispers and such. What it ultimately comes down to it for me, is can he fit my scheme. Carolina got to the Superbowl, primarily on the back of Peppers. If Fairley has the same athletic ability, it would be hard for me to pass him up. Peppers isn't exactly the most high-motor, dedicated player, but he did Carolina great for his tenure there. Its quite possible that Rivera thinks the same thing.

Peppers also showed the lack of motivation to the extent that Carolina allowed him to leave as a free agent. Yes they reached a Superbowl with him but through the course of his career they have hardly been the shining light of successful teams in the NFL.

Watching Fairley last year you could see his skills and talent. But you also seen quite a number of plays where he made no impact whatsoever. If he is doing this in the year he is going to declare for the draft then that is worrying, what will he be like if he gets a mega contract?

Whichever team takes Fairley, IMO between 8 and 12, will be getting an extremely talented and disruptive defensive lineman. But hey, Washington got themselves a very talented and disruptive defensive lineman when they got Haynesworth.

J-Mike88
03-30-2011, 05:59 PM
Peppers also showed the lack of motivation to the extent that Carolina allowed him to leave as a free agent. Yes they reached a Superbowl with him but through the course of his career they have hardly been the shining light of successful teams in the NFL.
That's a good point.
Peppers, IMO, was unfairly criticized. People expected him to make a big play every other snap, when the fact is: NO D-lineman ever did that.... they all take some plays off. Even Bruce Smith, Reggie White, Kevin Williams, Cullen Jenkins, etc. All of em rest on occasion and get blocked. It happens.

Still, I don't like Fairley's work ethic and I would not expect him to become a great NFL player.

I think the survey above has a lot of potential big busts. I can't wait to look back on this down the road as an archive!

thebow305 with the only guy who chose PRINCE.
So if 5 years from now, nobody has heard a peep from Amakumura for years, or he's busted out already, thebow305 will look like a genius!

descendency
03-30-2011, 07:23 PM
Peppers also showed the lack of motivation to the extent that Carolina allowed him to leave as a free agent.

Peppers refused to sign with Carolina. They franchised him twice.

MidwestJimmy
03-31-2011, 09:47 AM
Von Miller actually was an OLB in a 3-4 defense at TAMU, and was the best linebacker playing on the line/edge in the country. If that doesn't make him an edge linebacker prospect, I don't know what does.

Redruckus81
03-31-2011, 02:39 PM
I would vote for Nate Solder 10 times if I could. The love for him from the national media just reminds me so much of what happened with Bruce Camobell last year... OT with a 1st round body and 5th round technique

JaxJag_1
03-31-2011, 02:57 PM
There's a number of future busts among those options, but the three most obvious are Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Da'Quan Bowers.

JFINK11
03-31-2011, 03:13 PM
AJ Green. is it even a question?

initial_flo
03-31-2011, 06:51 PM
Eh, with guys like Solder at the very least you can move someone like him to the inside if worst comes to worst. So he won't be valueless.

I'll take Cam Newton, mixing diva QB and accuracy issues doesn't seem like a win here. The guy could be great but I'm not sure if he wants to work for it. An analogy that comes to mind is Cam Newton is to the NFL, as Terrelle Pryor is to college football.

And Christian Ponder, if his upside is Billy Volek or poor man's Chad Pennington as Scott says in his bio, why burn a second round pick on this guy? I don't get it.

Redruckus81
03-31-2011, 07:10 PM
Eh, with guys like Solder at the very least you can move someone like him to the inside if worst comes to worst. So he won't be valueless.

I'll take Cam Newton, mixing diva QB and accuracy issues doesn't seem like a win here. The guy could be great but I'm not sure if he wants to work for it. An analogy that comes to mind is Cam Newton is to the NFL, as Terrelle Pryor is to college football.

And Christian Ponder, if his upside is Billy Volek or poor man's Chad Pennington as Scott says in his bio, why burn a second round pick on this guy? I don't get it.

I dont know that you actually could move Solder to OG. He was absolutely horrible at it at the Senior Bowl and I dont think he has the strength for it anyway. Same goes for RT where you need that strength and just flat out mean mentality... if he cant start at LT I think he will have a hard time holding onto a roster spot since backup Olinemen usually need to have position flexibility

Woody56
03-31-2011, 07:13 PM
Allen Bailey - He is going to be terrible

Lil Quip
04-02-2011, 01:37 AM
First, I consider a bust someone who completely bombs, not someone who has an unspectacular career or gets screwed by injuries (Charlie Rogers, Courtney Brown.) Not living up to the hype is not a bust to me.

Solder - not a prototypical tackle, see underwhelming, but who seems to put him in the top 15 picks? As a second rounder, is he really a bust?

Fairley - has the one hit wonder curse, seems to play dirty when it doesn't matter. Gut feeling puts him at a guy who has a career year for a paycheck.

Von Miller - Seems like he will be fine, but he could get screwed by being on a team that doesn't fit his skills. I actually think he would be best being an understudy to Freeney. He is good at one thing and so raw at everything else makes a bust likely.

AJ Green - Wideouts are obviously bust heavy, but I see the knock of not putting effort more as he makes being a WR look easy. I definitely see a Roddy White like career path for him.

Prince - I see him more as a bust if someone tries to keep him as a starting corner if he becomes a FS or nickle corner. I see him as someone who can contribute for a while if he puts in decent effort.

Bowers - Don't think he will live up to expectations. However depending on medical, he could freefall. I can see him being a second rounder.

Jones - surprised he hasn't been voted for. has red flags as wr, however, people won't consider him a bust if he does equal or better than green, who will go higher.

Now to the Qb's. I like Gabbert better than Newton, although I don't consider either a first rounder. As first rounders, I say they both bust. However, I can see Gabbert having a longer career, no matter how spectacular, which is why I picked Newton. I think the fame quotient won't really matter a ton, as I see him putting in enough work to be decent, however, I just don't see him as a NFL QB.

descendency
04-02-2011, 02:27 AM
Some people say Mallett is a poor leader because he's too fiery. Here is something interesting:

Teammates say that's because he hates to lose. "I mean it could be anything. You could be playing a game of pool,” said one teammate, "and if he misses a shot, you got to kind of watch out for flying sticks. I mean, he gets a little crazy out there."

Seems like a real character concern people might want to check into. . .

And by him, I mean Tom Brady - who the quote is actually talking about.