Is Andy Dalton This Year's Colt McCoy?

[MI_Buckeye]

I keep hearing rumors of Dalton going first round and lasting no later than the early second. I just remember hearing the exact same thing about Colt last year. Possible first rounder with an absolute floor of No. 38 to Cleveland. He ended up going about 50 spots lower and had Atlanta not picked Corey Peters two spots in front of the Browns, he likely would have still been available going into day three.

The similarities between Dalton and McCoy are endless. Mobile spread college QBs who led great teams to lots of wins against overmatched opponents. Lack great arm strength. Affable guys who are well-liked by almost everybody. Both guys that I and many others thought were late-round talents who were at best career backups.

The good news for Dalton is McCoy had a nice rookie season and is the Browns starting QB for the time being.

Just a warning to all draftnicks, Dalton could fall MUCH further than people realize.

[49erNation85]

I think it all depends on where Dalton lands.I'm a fan of his playing style and smarts.He is more fit for a WCO though.I wouldn't mind seeing how he would do in SF.He doesn't have the big powerful arm but big enough for the west.Will be interesting to see where he goes.First round IMO is way too early.

[FUNBUNCHER]

I hope Dalton has more Drew Brees in him than Colt McCoy.

Both these guys remind me of Jeff Garcia/Brees a little, but I suppose that's the automatic comparison for every 6'1 - 6'2 QB with limited arm strength, good decision making and decent mobility.

Also, didn't Brees increase his throwing velocity throughout his pro career??

[FrankGore]

McCoy was the victim of teams not really needing QBs last year plus a few teams putting off a need. A lot of teams wanted to give one more shot to guys they had drafted a few years ago. He legitimately probably should've gone in the 2nd round but the Browns had the luxury of watching him fall all the way to the middle of the 3rd round.

This year, I think most people would buy Dalton being at least a 2nd round value, but the amount of teams starving for QBs is quite possibly going to push him into the end of the 1st. I can't remember a draft where so many teams were dying to find a guy they can tab as the QBOTF and Dalton is the kind of guy that's going to get coaches fired up in support of taking him.

Not too egregious to me, and I'd be absolutely shocked if he fell out of the 2nd. At this point I think he'll go in the late 1st and if he lands in the right system, he's going to be good. I don't think his arm is poor enough for people to knock him as much as they are.

[RealityCheck]

In my opinion, Dalton's situation is the other way around.

We think Dalton's ceiling would be Miami at #15, but in reality he could go as high as #8 overall.

[ellsy82]

Hmmmm. Mmmm-No. 'kay?

[SchizophrenicBatman]

In my opinion, Dalton's situation is the other way around.

We think Dalton's ceiling would be Miami at #15, but in reality he could go as high as #8 overall.

Dalton going to EITHER of those teams would be one of the worst draft picks of all time

Seriously, what do people see in this guy? There's a guy with average height, an average arm and average accuracy who won a lot in college in every draft

[SchizophrenicBatman]

If Ball State went to a BCS game would Nate Davis have been a first round pick?

[Smash28Dash34]

Dalton going to EITHER of those teams would be one of the worst draft picks of all time

Seriously, what do people see in this guy? There's a guy with average height, an average arm and average accuracy who won a lot in college in every draft

This, agree 100%.

[Caulibflower]

Dalton going to EITHER of those teams would be one of the worst draft picks of all time

Seriously, what do people see in this guy? There's a guy with average height, an average arm and average accuracy who won a lot in college in every draft

Third this.

[Caulibflower]

Although I do like him more than I liked Jimmy Clausen last year.

[CashmoneyDrew]

Dalton does nothing great, but he does a lot of things good enough and he's a gamer. I think he'll be one of the top 2 QBs from this draft. At worst he ends up a solid #2 his whole career IMO. I would love for the Titans to get him in the 2nd.

[Giants34]

Thanks for the warning but I'm gonna say he lasts no longer than the early 2nd round.

[FrankGore]

Dalton going to EITHER of those teams would be one of the worst draft picks of all time

Seriously, what do people see in this guy? There's a guy with average height, an average arm and average accuracy who won a lot in college in every draft

Only because you asked...

If it came down to those factors alone, drafting QBs would be a science. You have to project how they're going to grow into their role as a starting QB. Can they master a playbook, become a great decision maker, improve their footwork and mechanics to get the ball on time in the right spot, carry out a gameplan to a T?

I like Andy Dalton because I foresee him picking up all those things very quickly. Not only is he "smart", he has a rare aggression to his football IQ that reminds me of Drew Brees...wants as many points as possible on the board, wants every throw in the right spot, and legitimately wants to kick ass. He's not your typical "caretaker" that just wants to dump the ball off and avoid picks. He goes out and gets it, but smartly.

He does have to go to the right team with the right kind of coach. If he goes to some team that has a defensive mind in charge that can care less about offense and has a mediocre OC, you're probably not getting anything special with Dalton. He needs a coach that has the same mentality. Similarly if you need a guy that can stand back there and constantly deliver long balls, you're probably not going to do well with him. But if you're a team that runs a quick-hitting, timing-based passing system (ie. WCO, ie. Seattle, SF), that's gotta be someone you like IMO.

[Wrathman]

Dalton does nothing great, but he does a lot of things good enough and he's a gamer. I think he'll be one of the top 2 QBs from this draft. At worst he ends up a solid #2 his whole career IMO. I would love for the Titans to get him in the 2nd.

This quarterback class has so many questions that it could turn out to be true that the second best QB of this class (Dalton or someone else) is a solid No. 2 in the NFL and nothing more. The odds say it won't happen, but would it truly be a surprise if it did? No.

[Giants34]

Dalton going to EITHER of those teams would be one of the worst draft picks of all time

Seriously, what do people see in this guy? There's a guy with average height, an average arm and average accuracy who won a lot in college in every draft



Average accuracy? Have you bothered to check the guys completion percentage? It was 66%. And the guy has what the NFL looks for in a QB, which are intangibles. The whole "winning" thing, the attitude, the work ethic the intelligence. He's got good size, he's got a good enough arm to make the necessary throws at the next level, he led a MWC team to an undefeated season and a victory over the Big 10 champion in the Rose Bowl on the big stage, and he's accurate enough.

The real question is, what's not to like about him? So naturally, even GM's have decided to explore the hair color. Again...what is not to like about the guy?

[Wrathman]

The real question is, what's not to like about him? So naturally, even GM's have decided to explore the hair color. Again...what is not to like about the guy?

[Brian Billick] Guys who look like Andrew Dalton don't win Super Bowls[/Brian Billick]

lol.

[Giants34]

I like how some people cry racism over everyone not being blinded by Cam Newton's smile, but people feel inclined to openly judge a guy by his haircolor and think its ok.

[SchizophrenicBatman]

I'm not going to get in a debate about college completion percentages. It's gotten ridiculous at this point. I could go out there and throw 50 swing passes and have a 75% completion percentage. Doesn't make me an NFL prospect

Go watch some TCU games. He isn't challenged to make difficult throws very often. He didn't carry his team like Brees did at Purdue. He stepped up a good amount his senior year, I'll give him credit for that. Before this year he looked like a thoroughly mediocre prospect who was a good caretaker for a team with a great defense and running game to me. He wasn't necessarily taken too far out of that role this year, he just executed it a lot better. And even after that, he still looks like a career back up. His accuracy is average projecting it to the NFL. Depending on the offense he plays in he could be over 60% in the NFL but that doesn't really mean anything. McNabb has been over 60% a lot of years playing for Andy Reid and he has below average accuracy

I'm not saying the guy is a scrub. I will grant him - his arm is good enough, he doesn't have any glaring flaws (though he has a number of minor issues that need work) and he has reports of being a good leader/intangible guy. That's great for him and makes him a draftable prospect. He'll be a good back up, maybe a poor starter. You don't take that in round 1.

FWIW I like Dalton a lot more than Ponder

[Giants34]

Ok, I'm not going any further with this, cuz Dalton did carry that team and anyone that did watch TCU knows that. He did not just complete a bunch of swing passes..he threw the ball down the field. We're not getting into college completion percentages here...unless his name is Jake Locker, then we'll base our entire argument against him on it.

[DOLPHINATIC]

I love Dalton this year but I'm not I would want him in the first round. Peter King had the Dolphins taking him 15th overall, that would be a reach IMO.

Love/Hate List

[Giants34]

I'm of the opinion that if you would take a QB in the 1st round, or even early 2nd round, it shouldn't matter where you take him. Granted, its nice if you can move down and still grab your guy but teams do get burned playing those games. I distinctly remember back in 1997 Dallas desperately needing a TE to replace Novacek and coveting a kid named Tony Gonzalez..but they traded around and played games to try and maximize their value until KC took him. They settled for David Lafleur instead. He lasted 2 years I think. If you want a guy, just take him. Especially a QB. You cannot knock a team for taking a guy at 15 that some teams would gladly take late 1st or earlier. Especially given the low success rate of these mid-late 1st rd guys and how many of them bust. Don't pass on a guy you truly believe can be your QB for a DT that looked good at the Combine.

[metafour]

He is a completely overhyped version of Greg McElroy. I'd rather take McElroy in the ~4th/5th round than Dalton late first or wherever he seems to have "risen" up to.

[ViperVisor]

I know little but makes sense to me. I have just watched what I could on Youtube.

A Winner sounds nice but hasn't shown to be much worth in the NFL.

He will be 24yo this season like McCoy, older than Josh Freeman. Lots of XP and you wonder how much large scale development you can project.

He looked great with the extra spacing in Coll + the but that tightens up in the NFL. All those hitches I saw with guys waiting for the ball isn't gonna happen.

He is good at putting the ball where he wants and is comfortable moving around so that is why Scott says "Best fit might come in a West Coast offense"
Doing that in the NFL where the QB is in a pressure cooker is the toughest thing in sports. Half of the 1st half of the draft have a need at QB some Badly.

[metafour]

By the way; I've mentioned it before, but these "2nd tier" QB prospects in recent history have been proven to be almost complete wasted picks 9 times out of 10. The guys that are turning franchises around and leading playoff pushes are the elite QB prospects; not the Andy Daltons and company.

If you're going for one of these 2nd tier guys the choice has to be Kaepernick because at least you can argue that he's got top-end tools to work with.

[descendency]

Drew Brees is a great comparison, because almost every else who gets compared to him is a failure.

Why is it that people fail to understand what makes Brees good?

[ViperVisor]

By the way; I've mentioned it before, but these "2nd tier" QB prospects in recent history have been proven to be almost complete wasted picks 9 times out of 10.

Basically how I look at it.
At the top you are taking a QB that you figure can be elite. 95 rating.

Mid of the 1st to get a 85 fits. Cause in his good or best years he could be 90 or a 95.

After that What Is The Point of getting a QB? other than depth in case of injury.

Either shoot to kill or pack it in for the next hunt.

[Scott Wright]

Either shoot to kill or pack it in for the next hunt.

Ha, I like that! :o)

[JaxJag_1]

Comparing Andy Dalton to Colt McCoy is lazy and downright incorrect.

[FUNBUNCHER]

Comparing Andy Dalton to Colt McCoy is lazy and downright incorrect.

IMO it's not that far off. McCoy is/was better, but Dalton in many ways is a very similar prospect.
Colt played the game at a much higher level at UT, much more of an attacking type QB his entire college career. Dalton has only begun to grow into that role the last two seasons.

Dalton is a guy I don't think a team drafts as their QB of the future, but he is a prospect I could see playing his way into the starting gig. He's got vision and really sees the field well, throws with great touch and timing, and personally I think he's very accurate on most throws. He's not going to wing it 65+ yards from deep in the pocket, but really very few NFL QBs can.

Dalton is a calculated risk taker with some upside. Who and what he becomes as a QB is in that grey area that we as fans, or even NFL scouts and and HCs, have no way of predicting.

THe Romos, Warners, Brees' and Bradys, IMO no one really had any idea they would be that good, and I bet those QBs would have said the same thing about themselves as rookies.

Dalton needs an OC/HC that encourages him to be aggressive AND smart, like others have already stated. If he's coached not to make mistakes in the pros, he'll become another Kyle Orton.

[Iamcanadian]

I don't like the Dalton/McCoy comparison, it is really difficult to know how high McCoy would have been drafted if he wasn't injured in his Bowl Game and never 100% in the post season.
Dalton is a 2nd round prospect and He'll get a shot but he doesn't have Brees's arm and Orton is his ceiling, IMO. He isn't going to see round 1.

[ellsy82]

He's gonna get ass-reamed by nfl pass rushers.

[batsandgats]

Brees didn't have the type of arm he has now coming out. I know after the injury he talked about how he perfected his mechanics and went on in his book for about 30 pages on how your only as strong as your weakest link,

"if your front side can throw a ball this far, and you back can only throw it half that, your only gonna be able to throw it half that"

He talked about how he learned to work on his core and how important it was etc. and how he strengthened everything and made all of his muscles balanced to prevent future injury, as well as having great mechanics, also to prevent future injury as well as become a better qb.

[Iamcanadian]

Brees didn't have the type of arm he has now coming out. I know after the injury he talked about how he perfected his mechanics and went on in his book for about 30 pages on how your only as strong as your weakest link,

"if your front side can throw a ball this far, and you back can only throw it half that, your only gonna be able to throw it half that"

He talked about how he learned to work on his core and how important it was etc. and how he strengthened everything and made all of his muscles balanced to prevent future injury, as well as having great mechanics, also to prevent future injury as well as become a better qb.

He was a very short QB who went in round 2, he's listed a 6'0" but I doubt he is really that tall. His basic arm strength and mechanics were very positive. Sure he improved upon them but he started out from a pretty high point to begin with because short QB's don't get drafted high. If he was 6'3", he probably goes top 10, so the talent level was already there.
Dalton is starting from a lower perch IMO with a ceiling that is limited. Nobody can say he won't ever be a starter but I just don't see a ceiling that suggests franchise QB which is why he will be drafted in round 2.

[batsandgats]

Brees was like one of the first quarterbacks to run a version of the spread offense and put up big numbers in the big 10, that couldve raised his stock more, kind of like how Tim Couch was pretty much the first guy to run the aiiraid (Mike Leach was under the Hal Mumme coaching tree) and went first overall.

He didn't drop that far on height alone. Vick was the same height and went first overall.

[Iamcanadian]

Brees was like one of the first quarterbacks to run a version of the spread offense and put up big numbers in the big 10, that couldve raised his stock more, kind of like how Tim Couch was pretty much the first guy to run the aiiraid (Mike Leach was under the Hal Mumme coaching tree) and went first overall.

He didn't drop that far on height alone. Vick was the same height and went first overall.

Vick had one of the greatest arms the scouts had EVER seen and tremendous quickness at avoiding pass rushers, even then a lot of teams questioned his accuracy and character. Atlanta at the time had never experienced winning and also needed a dynamic player to sell tickets and merchandise.
H..mmm, sounds like Newton doesn't it???
Brees as I said, could have been a top 10 prospect if he was a little taller but he didn't have a gun but was still a solid prospect in every other way.
He was up against NFL biases that short QB's couldn't succeed in the NFL.
As for Couch, there are some misconceptions concerning his failure as a NFL QB. Couch hurt his arm and after that he was never the same prospect he had been early in his NFL career. It never healed properly.

[BigBanger]

Comparing Andy Dalton to Colt McCoy is lazy and downright incorrect.
I know. He's more like Alex Smith.


I appreciate this thread. I was unaware that Dalton could fall. Consider me warned. Thank you.

[FTRWRTR]

Brees was like one of the first quarterbacks to run a version of the spread offense and put up big numbers in the big 10, that couldve raised his stock more, Just the opposite, that adds an additional concern because now NFL scouts have to worry if the qb will be as good when he has to take snaps under center.

[batsandgats]

Vick had one of the greatest arms the scouts had EVER seen and tremendous quickness at avoiding pass rushers, even then a lot of teams questioned his accuracy and character. Atlanta at the time had never experienced winning and also needed a dynamic player to sell tickets and merchandise.
H..mmm, sounds like Newton doesn't it???
Brees as I said, could have been a top 10 prospect if he was a little taller but he didn't have a gun but was still a solid prospect in every other way.
He was up against NFL biases that short QB's couldn't succeed in the NFL.
As for Couch, there are some misconceptions concerning his failure as a NFL QB. Couch hurt his arm and after that he was never the same prospect he had been early in his NFL career. It never healed properly.

So height + accuracy + character concerns = first overall pick because of a great arm
but height alone dropped Brees to the second? He didn't have a great arm? I thought you just said he did. You honestly believe Vick wouldve fell that far if Atlanta doesn't take him?

I think Brees had about the same type of arm as Dalton coming out. Good but not great. Both had offenses with a ton of short throws, both were winners. Dalton played against inferior competition but Brees played in an offense that teams weren't used to seeing, and definitely weren't prepared for in the big 10. Now do I think he will be on a Brees level? only time will tell. I think if he gets to the right team and time to develop he could be an above average quarterback. It would be hard to be on a Brees level. I don't think Brees would be on his own level if he wasn't with Sean Payton, who also made something out of Romo. Brees was good for the Chargers but not on the same level as he is now, and he also had LT. He showed glimpses of being great but he wasn't talked about on the same level as Brady or Manning during that time. Even then he didn't show those glimpses until around his 4th year, which was a great season.

Brees actually did some snaps under center, more than most spread qbs coming out today, the main thing was the 4 and 5 receiver sets. I believe he got under center for most of the goal line plays. I don't think scouts were concerned about it back then as much. Now that they have seen kids struggling with the transition its more of a concern.

[Iamcanadian]

So height + accuracy + character concerns = first overall pick because of a great arm
but height alone dropped Brees to the second? He didn't have a great arm? I thought you just said he did. You honestly believe Vick wouldve fell that far if Atlanta doesn't take him?

I think Brees had about the same type of arm as Dalton coming out. Good but not great. Both had offenses with a ton of short throws, both were winners. Dalton played against inferior competition but Brees played in an offense that teams weren't used to seeing, and definitely weren't prepared for in the big 10. Now do I think he will be on a Brees level? only time will tell. I think if he gets to the right team and time to develop he could be an above average quarterback. It would be hard to be on a Brees level. I don't think Brees would be on his own level if he wasn't with Sean Payton, who also made something out of Romo. Brees was good for the Chargers but not on the same level as he is now, and he also had LT. He showed glimpses of being great but he wasn't talked about on the same level as Brady or Manning during that time. Even then he didn't show those glimpses until around his 4th year, which was a great season.

Brees actually did some snaps under center, more than most spread qbs coming out today, the main thing was the 4 and 5 receiver sets. I believe he got under center for most of the goal line plays. I don't think scouts were concerned about it back then as much. Now that they have seen kids struggling with the transition its more of a concern.

All I'm saying is Dalton isn't near the prospect Brees was, as for Vick, you have to remember that it was a poor draft year and a lot of teams according to the rumour mills at the time, there was no NFLN back then, really had doubts about Vick's character and accuracy. However back then character wasn't a crucial factor like it is today so teams were far more likely to pass over it.
Atlanta was desperate at that time for a face to their franchise, they weren't a very successful franchise back before Vick. Vick was also a local boy(Virginia being close to Georgia), who could sell tickets and merchandise.
IMO, Vick wasn't going #1 overall until Atlanta traded up for him, there were just too many question marks which proved to be true down the line.

[SchizophrenicBatman]

Drew Brees is a great comparison, because almost every else who gets compared to him is a failure.

Why is it that people fail to understand what makes Brees good?

Every lefthander in the minors who throws 85mph is the next Tom Glavine!!!

[JaxJag_1]

Dalton can make all the throws. His arm is not weak.

Colt McCoy has a noodle arm.

There's the huge difference.

[Giants34]

He is a completely overhyped version of Greg McElroy. I'd rather take McElroy in the ~4th/5th round than Dalton late first or wherever he seems to have "risen" up to.

That was the worst comparison I've seen there.lol

[BlindSite]

If you look at one of the precursory ideals for QBs entering the NFL it's a statistical score of starts, completion percentage and something else that I forget, McCoy was the highest last year and Dalton is the highest this year.

Because of his lack of arm strength, like McCoy and Pennington he can't force throws so he has to read defenses better than his counterparts and anticipate when his receivers come open. He's not going to ever be a peyton manning but I think he could be a very efficent and effective QB for years to come.

For teams in need of a back up, the eagles if they move kolb, Pittsburgh, Tenneessee who need options no matter what and hell even teams like Dallas and Detroit he could be the most ready to step in and take over for a short period.

I like his upside even if he is a season long starter, he's very underrated as far as readiness.

[Giants34]

....he's not going to be drafted as a back-up. Is that still surprising?

He doesn't have a weak arm either...let's drop that one now.

[Wrathman]

For teams in need of a back up, the eagles if they move kolb, Pittsburgh, Tenneessee who need options no matter what and hell even teams like Dallas and Detroit he could be the most ready to step in and take over for a short period.

Detroit got very solid play from all three QBs last year. They are set at that position assuming they resign Stanton.

[SoCalBam]

Also kind of like Scott Tolzien QB Wisconsin.

[Babylon]

Dalton does nothing great, but he does a lot of things good enough and he's a gamer. I think he'll be one of the top 2 QBs from this draft. At worst he ends up a solid #2 his whole career IMO. I would love for the Titans to get him in the 2nd.

Saw a guy on NFLN (i know i said i dont like that network) where a guy had Dalton going #8 to the Titans.

Someone sell me on Dalton as being worthy of being a top 10-15 pick because besides a nice collegiate career i dont see him as being that proficient in any one area as a pro QB.

[Brown Leader]

As for Couch, there are some misconceptions concerning his failure as a NFL QB. Couch hurt his arm and after that he was never the same prospect he had been early in his NFL career. It never healed properly.

**** that IAC. He never got comfortable in a pro style offense after coming from the spread, in that way similar to Alex Smith. I remember seeing a stat involving his QB rating from the shotgun as opposed to dropping back and it was way off-and it could be seen in his play. He also struggled to digest a pro offense. I recall Peyton Manning shocked when his former OC explained just how little of the offense had been installed late into training camp. And his attempts at making a comeback imo were more about this, his ability to get the playbook down/read defenses, then the injured shoulder excuses.

If you look at one of the precursory ideals for QBs entering the NFL it's a statistical score of starts, completion percentage and something else that I forget, McCoy was the highest last year and Dalton is the highest this year.

Because of his lack of arm strength, like McCoy and Pennington he can't force throws so he has to read defenses better than his counterparts and anticipate when his receivers come open. He's not going to ever be a peyton manning but I think he could be a very efficent and effective QB for years to come.

For teams in need of a back up, the eagles if they move kolb, Pittsburgh, Tenneessee who need options no matter what and hell even teams like Dallas and Detroit he could be the most ready to step in and take over for a short period.

I like his upside even if he is a season long starter, he's very underrated as far as readiness.

What I'm not getting about Dalton is that he really struggled at senior week practices with his drop back from center and throwing, much more so than the other spread guy, Kaepernick. Then after his pro day, the buzz on him really got going. I haven't read or heard anything about the discrepancy between these two post season performances-one of which, of course, is completely controlled and scripted. Now he's considered a potential first round pick?