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Giants34
04-28-2011, 11:36 PM
This is interesting how these guys all landed in spots where they may not start year 1...a breakdown..

1. Cam Newton- regardless of what spin Ron Rivera puts on things, Newton will not sit year 1. You don't take such a risky pick at QB #1 to just throw Jimmy Clausen out there week 1. As much as Newton will need to sit, they can't afford to, and he'll be unwilling to. As it stands, a raw QB throwing to a bare-bones WR core doesn't bode well. This team will be VERY predictable...run run run, run some more.

2. Jake Locker- Probably will beat out Kerry Collins and Rusty Smith to start year 1. How that works out remains to be seen, but in Tennessee he has the 2nd best RB in the league, a solid offensive line, and a developing young WR core. IMO, put in the best position to succeed early. The Titans are the anti-Washington Huskies--they have talent.

3. Blaine Gabbert- I do not believe Gabbert will beat out established vet David Garrard. Especially a pissed off David Garrard having seen his team trade up 6 spots for a QB. Gabbert comes from that spread offense, will need some seasoning. In other places, he probably would get tossed out there week 1 but Jax simply has no need to. He and Ponder may be in the best position to succeed long-term, with the ability to sit for awhile.

4. Christian Ponder- I think Minny makes a move to secure McNabb, and Ponder sits at least a year. In the future, he's a smart, polished NFL-ready QB with a high ceiling if he stays healthy. Obviously, having Peterson in the backfield is a great assett. It remains to be seen if Rice stays, and how his WR core ends up looking and developing. Its really not as bad a pick as Todd McShay leads you to believe. They panicked, amd completely blew it on Locker, assuming he'd neatly fall in their lap, but Ponder is no stiff, and if he becomes a franchise QB, it doesn't matter what pick they took him with.

BlindSite
04-28-2011, 11:49 PM
Ron Rivera is a pretty tight fisted dude, if he says he's sitting, he's sitting. I wouldn't be surprised to see a veteran signed or someone traded for to take the first year or so of the Newton era. If he starts I'd be extremely surprised.

Hell I think Clausen might come back a little better for having time off and having a legitimate offensive coaching staff, compared to last year.

Newton the day one starter? It's a 1/10 chance right now imo.

Giants34
04-28-2011, 11:55 PM
Realistically, you don't see 1st round QBs of any kind sit year 1. The 1 guy who might is Gabbert because Garrard is entrenched there and Del Rio isn't gonna have a quick hook with him, but they took Newton to sell tickets and try to get to people excited..people want to see the #1 pick, as they should. That elite QB prospect should be ready to go. If he's not, that's Carolinas oversight. My opinion is that all the other teams got better QBs later. Carolina got the better athlete, and the most charmingly handsome QB with 5th grade grammar, but the other teams got guys that don't need nearly the adjustment he does, with a lot more experience. Obviously I'm not a Newton fan. Not as a starting QB.

BlindSite
04-29-2011, 12:08 AM
Realistically:
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer
Aaron Rogers
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Brady Quinn

All sat their first years, Josh Freeman, Eli Manning, Patrick Ramsey, Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler were expected to sit but started due to injury.

There's a possibility, not a probability that he plays some as a rookie, but starts from opening day, it's a lot rarer than you realise and it's not like Carolina doesn't know they picked a guy who isn't 100% NFL ready.

Giants34
04-29-2011, 12:15 AM
So a dude hasn't sat since 2007. And the common thread among most of those guys is: established starter in front of them. I don't see Clausen getting the nod there, but that's me. You can all the faith you want in Cam sitting..I don't have any.

BlindSite
04-29-2011, 12:23 AM
Matt Ryan, Flacco and Sanchez were all more NFL ready. You're making a bad argument;

"this dude got took here, these dudes played, so this dude will too"

It doesn't gel with anything, at all.

Giants34
04-29-2011, 12:28 AM
Lol you know what general argument is? If Newton and Gabbert can't come in and start, don't take then in the top 10. If Cam Newton can't beat out Jimmy Clausen, take Patrick Peterson.

CashmoneyDrew
04-29-2011, 12:29 AM
Locker needs to sit a year, unfortunately he'll have to play.

Giants34
04-29-2011, 12:32 AM
Btw...Sanchez wasn't ready to go, and its been a pain-staking experience even for Jets fans going through the ups and downs with him. He could have used clipboard time. They elected to play him over a veteran like Kellen Clemens. That's the reality in some situations.

metafour
04-29-2011, 12:33 AM
Matt Ryan, Flacco and Sanchez were all more NFL ready. You're making a bad argument;

How was Flacco more NFL ready? The guy played at Delaware and wasn't even a 1st round thought until the SR Bowl.

Giants34
04-29-2011, 12:39 AM
How was Flacco more NFL ready? The guy played at Delaware and wasn't even a 1st round thought until the SR Bowl.

Joe Flacco the QB, not Joe Flacco the athlete, was 100 times more ready for "NFL QB" than Newton is now. And I even agree with you...coming out of Delaware, he needed to sit. I'm not gonna argue Newton NEEDS to sit. For a looong time. I just don't think he will. There will be pressure put on them to play him. Remember the angst to play Clausen when Matt Moore struggled? Yeah...and this is your #1 overall uber-athlete.

Crazy_Chris
04-29-2011, 12:44 AM
Don't think the Vikes make a move for McNabb. Ponder is arguably the most pro-ready QB in the draft. Also Frazier has been on record talking about drafting a guy and just letting him play right away. I think Ponder is going to start from day 1 for the Vikings.

RaiderNation
04-29-2011, 12:50 AM
I see Locker having the earliest success out of this years QB's. Great situation he lands in, has a top 3 RB, solid oline and nice weapons with Britt and others. I can see Collins starting the first 3 or 4 games and Locker taking over after maybe a 2 game losing streak

Giants34
04-29-2011, 12:54 AM
Don't think the Vikes make a move for McNabb. Ponder is arguably the most pro-ready QB in the draft. Also Frazier has been on record talking about drafting a guy and just letting him play right away. I think Ponder is going to start from day 1 for the Vikings.

Hey, you may be right. Ponder and Locker would be in very similar situations if they didn't obtain a veteran, except Locker's offensive line is a lot better. Karma really came around to Locker...good guy who stuck with a ****** team for 4 years, with a horrible offensive line and WR core, and he walks into a situation in the NFL with a solid OL and group of WRs. Helll he may even be a good influence on Kenny Britt.

BlindSite
04-29-2011, 12:57 AM
Lol you know what general argument is? If Newton and Gabbert can't come in and start, don't take then in the top 10. If Cam Newton can't beat out Jimmy Clausen, take Patrick Peterson.

At this point it's someone covering their ears and going "la la la everyone in the universe who's telling me otherwise is wrong"

I didn't make the pick, I didn't want the pick, but it's not a matter of beating someone out, it's a matter of what's the best thing long term for Cam Newton as the Carolina Panthers' future at quarterback, here's a hint. It's not jumping into the starting job on day one. Rivera and Co. know this which is why they've flat out stated already "at this point he's not our day one starter"

How was Flacco more NFL ready? The guy played at Delaware and wasn't even a 1st round thought until the SR Bowl.

How was he not? He was more mentally ready. More experienced and had a better supporting cast.

Giants34
04-29-2011, 01:05 AM
At this point it's someone covering their ears and going "la la la everyone in the universe who's telling me otherwise is wrong"

I didn't make the pick, I didn't want the pick, but it's not a matter of beating someone out, it's a matter of what's the best thing long term for Cam Newton as the Carolina Panthers' future at quarterback, here's a hint. It's not jumping into the starting job on day one. Rivera and Co. know this which is why they've flat out stated already "at this point he's not our day one starter"



How was he not? He was more mentally ready. More experienced and had a better supporting cast.

You talk like its a foregone conclusion that he won't start. Bro, we can agree to disagree. You don't know as much as you think you do.

BlindSite
04-29-2011, 01:27 AM
I'm not claiming to know anything; you are.

I am claiming that what the head coach of the team says, at this point is accurate which is only reinforced by everything we know about the coach, the coaching staff, the front office and the player who was drafted no more, no less.

Giants34
04-29-2011, 01:36 AM
...you're telling me that because Ron Rivera is basically answering questions about this guy with "well he doesn't have to play right away" because they took such an inexperiennced project as a franchise QB, that that is set in stone, fact. Signed sealed delivered, because we know so much about this guy that has never been a head coach before and has no track record yet. What I said....was that essentially moast 1st round QBs get thrown into the fire, which they do, and "IMO" there will be too great of pressure to throw Newton in it. Especially when Clausen went out and threw a few picks. By my recollection of this team, there was pressure to play Clausen because there was no faith in Moore...and there will probably safely be pressure to start Newton because he's the #1 pick of a dull franchise, and there's no faith in Clausen.

whatadai
04-29-2011, 02:24 AM
Cam Newton - Will start the year on the bench and stay on it the entire year if it goes the way it should. If he starts will depend mostly on injuries or Clausen being incredibly horrible...more than he already was. Rivera usually chooses to sit his rookies when he is able to. Newton won't beat out Clausen, the lack of experience in the pocket, lack of knowledge in a pro-offense, and lack of experience in making pro-reads and throws along with horrible footwork will keep him from beating out Clausen. Then he'll bust anyways and be out of the league in a few years. Actually I give him one elite year where everyone will be wowed and think he's the next coming of Barry Sanders...even though he's a QB...then he'll bust.

Jake Locker - Sits behind Collins for a few games...Collins sucks...Locker starts...Locker sucks...everyone contributes it to being thrown to the wolves and that Chris Palmer will make him better because he's some QB coaching genius when he's actually pretty overrated. Locker continues to bust...has a Kerry Collins-like career.

Blaine Gabbert - Sits behind Garrard the first year...battles for the starting job in his sophomore year and wins. Does decent and shows promise in his first year as a starter. Does a little better the next year and shows more promise. Does a tiny bit better the next year and does a little better. Has a slump in his 4th year. Gets back to his previous play in his 5th year. Continues to be mediocre for the rest of his career. McShay gets fired from ESPN for hyping a QB up out of nowhere.

Christian Ponder - Starts right away due to his pro-readiness and ridiculously underrated accuracy/arm strength/and football intelligence. Leads a Donovan McNabb-like career. Ends up being the Donovan McNabb of the 2009 draft. A tradition of 4-5 QBs drafted in the first round every 10 years begins with only one from each class ever actually having a successful career. Which will cause everyone to look for the Donovan McNabb and Christian Ponder of the 2019 NFL Draft, where Goodell would have turned the footballs into fluffly little Pomeranians to protect the quarterbacks from hurting their fingers on leather.

Giants34
04-29-2011, 02:38 AM
Lol for awhile there I was hoping that post was a joke, until I got to Gabbert and realized it was.

FUNBUNCHER
04-29-2011, 05:39 AM
Split the difference, Cam probably starts around the midpoint of the season, if not later. Unless he convinces Chudzinski/Rivera he's acquired enough mastery of the playbook to execute the offense proficiently, IMO they won't throw him out there just to show off their shiny new toy to the fans.

If Clausen starts the year and looks like crap, yeah the Cam countdown moves up into high gear.

I don't think Ponder has it in him to be a pro bowl QB. He's Mark Sanchez, but IMO just not as good.

In two years I imagine it becomes obvious how much of a reach he was at 12. Even with the injuries Ponder was never a great QB at Fla St.

SchizophrenicBatman
04-29-2011, 07:12 AM
When did Rivera say Newton wouldnt start next year?

I listened to the 20 minute PC the Panthers did and he said he would play when he was ready

whatadai
04-29-2011, 02:11 PM
Lol for awhile there I was hoping that post was a joke, until I got to Gabbert and realized it was.

Wasn't joking. Or not completely at least. I really do think the first 3 will be busts compared to their draft position and lead mediocre or horrible careers while Ponder will have an above average one just because of his football intelligence.

WiSeIVIaN
04-29-2011, 02:30 PM
I actually think the OP is pretty spot-on, aside from the Cam Newton thing. Newton will sit to start the year, and if he stays there depends on clausen's play.

Locker will start in TEN. KC will not be extended, since the only person in the NFL who thinks KC can play is Jeff Fisher. Locker beats out rusty and some second-rate vet to start.

Gabbert is riding some pine. Not even debateable.

It will be interesting to see what the vikings do. On one hand that have a fairly beastly team, so going after a veteran makes sense, but Ponder is more NFL-ready with a ****** ceiling, so why draft him to bench him? In the end, I think VY ends up as a viking. VY is underrated and still young. Suspect O-Line for pass protect means mobility, and the titans HBcoach being hired as the vikes QBcoach is telling.

In the end I don't know where McNabb ends up. The important thing to note is that mcnabb+VY+Kolb need to wind up somewhere. Kolb might stay put since sanfran is not gonna out-bid themselves to trade for him.

VY to the vikes, McNabb to sanfran, and Kolb either sticking or going to SEA makes sense to me. sanfran taking a guy like kaepernick in the 2nd or 3rd to develop would fit in well.

WiSeIVIaN
04-29-2011, 02:38 PM
Its also worth noting that popular beleif especially on NFL draft boards is that players will become what they will become regardless of situation. The if you put Ryan Leaf on the Colts and Peyton Manning on the Chargers, leaf would be 3-and-out and manning would be the best QB on earth still.

While that's possibly true for Manning, Without Tom Moore helping him learn the ropes, its unclear if his true potential would have ever been realize or if he'd be a middle-range starter like his brother.

With Leaf, a different situation could have meant different results. Hell, if he went to a team that sat him for a couple years or to a different OC, the sky was the limit.

People need to realize that (a) Where these players went to will effect what they will become, and (b) there are a lot of ways to ruin a prospect, but the main one is destroying their confidence in themselves. Put a QB out there before he's ready? i don't care about the INTs or the losses, that goes with the territory. What I care about is the sacks and the INTs effecting my guys judgement. What I care about is not having my fans BOO our rookie in his home stadium.

This is why you sit quarterbacks. Because you need them to have more confidence in their own abilities, as well as giving them a better chance to succeed early rather than facing early adversity.

Some QBs like Manning will bulldoze past that adversity, but guys like Leaf, Carr, and many more have been destroyed by it. Heck, you take the injuries away from Grossman and make Chicago Fans not boo the best QB season we've had in a decade and maybe he would have been something as well.

the natural
04-29-2011, 02:45 PM
Gabbert and Ponder just about doubled the Wonderlic scores of Newton and Locker. That will factor into it.

WiSeIVIaN
04-29-2011, 02:51 PM
Wonderlic tests are just a bunch of pita questions. It doesn't test your football IQ, your ability to read defenses, or really anything else except perhaps your ability to memorize a playbook (which no one has much trouble doing).

If Craig Krenzel isn't a pro bowl QB with a near perfect wonderlic, something is obviously up. Wonderlic = Book smarts, and is loosely related to IQ. Anticipation, instincts, and hell knowledge have a much bigger impact on how a QB plays than his wonderlic.

You put a NFL playbook in front of gabbert and locker, do you honestly think gabbert gets it down first just because he has a semi-photographic memory? Of course not, locker has been dealing with pro-style plays and actually looking down progressions for the last four years.

SchizophrenicBatman
04-29-2011, 03:00 PM
jake locker played in a "pro style" offense for like a year and 3 games

the natural
04-29-2011, 03:30 PM
jake locker played in a "pro style" offense for like a year and 3 games

Nice to see a picture of the Newt before the HGH deformed his head.