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bigbuc
05-01-2011, 11:24 PM
Do you think that if the ALT called AZ and offered two 1st rounders a 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder for Fitz they would have taken it?

Victory X
05-01-2011, 11:38 PM
Can't trade players so we'll never know.

PossibleCabbage
05-01-2011, 11:49 PM
There's not a wide receiver in the league I'd trade two #1s for (let alone two #1s and change), so if I'm Arizona and I'm able to trade Fitzgerald and am offered that deal, I jump at it.

bigbuc
05-02-2011, 12:17 AM
I just ask cause wouldn't you want Fitz over a unproven Jones.

CrankthatCrabtree
05-02-2011, 12:36 AM
yes, Fitz is significantly better than Julio will ever be

MI_Buckeye
05-02-2011, 12:37 AM
There's not a wide receiver in the league I'd trade two #1s for (let alone two #1s and change), so if I'm Arizona and I'm able to trade Fitzgerald and am offered that deal, I jump at it.

I would laugh Atlanta out of the building if they offered only two firsts for Fitz. Heck, I wouldn't even except the deal they offered Cleveland. Without Fitz, the Cards go way, WAY down.

I just ask cause wouldn't you want Fitz over a unproven Jones.

At this point, It is close. Yes, Fitz is proven, but Julio is about as safe a prospect as there can be IMHO. Also, Julio is seven years younger so I can't say with certainty who I'd rather have.

PossibleCabbage
05-02-2011, 01:00 AM
I would laugh Atlanta out of the building if they offered only two firsts for Fitz. Heck, I wouldn't even except the deal they offered Cleveland. Without Fitz, the Cards go way, WAY down.

As though Arizona is following a positive trajectory with Fitzgerald? Considering that Fitzgerald's contract expires after the 2011 season and is probably not going to want to return if the Cardinals are still a disaster, if I could get a pair of firsts for him now I'd jump at it.

But like I said, if I'm the GM of any team in the league, for any wide receiver on my roster, you offer me two firsts and you can have him. Wide receivers simply aren't that irreplaceable. That Green Bay WR corps last year that all the TV announcers say was "the best in the league" was made up of two second round picks, a third round pick, and two seventh round picks. If you like you can throw in the TEs who were a third round pick, two fifth round picks, and an undrafted guy.

Monomach
05-02-2011, 02:46 AM
Do you think that if the ALT called AZ and offered two 1st rounders a 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder for Fitz they would have taken it?

For those picks, they could have gotten any receiver in the league. Or they could have gotten Anquan Boldin twice PLUS Brandon Marshall twice.

Yes, Julio Jones cost twice as much as Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall together. Atlanta was on crack for that trade. It was a ******** Herschel Walker type of trade.

Oh, and you forgot a pick. There was another fourth rounder included.

Julio Jones cost more than a pro bowl franchise QB with a cheap contract coming off a 4500 yard season at age 25.

Incidentally, Mike Brown is really dumb for not taking the trade when he was offered it. But we've come to expect such things from him...

Can't trade players so we'll never know.


*ring ring*
Cardinals: Whassup?
Falcons: Give me a list of who you want me to draft with these picks. When the lockout is lifted, I'll trade the rights to the players to you for Fitz.
Cardinals: Good idea. Go get a pen.

Lil Quip
05-02-2011, 04:03 AM
Unlike most picks, next year will be very telling if this was a good idea.

If Atlanta gets to the Superbowl, trading up for the last piece to a contender seems like a great idea. If they get bounced early, trading away a ton of picks is stupid if favor of filling other holes.

Halsey
05-02-2011, 05:39 AM
Trading two firsts for Keyshawn didn't stop the Bucs from winning a Super Bowl.

I think it's funny that people think the Julio trade was all about winning the Super Bowl next season. The guy just turned 22. He could potentially be an elite WR for a decade. It's not all about 2011.

georgiafan
05-02-2011, 07:18 AM
Atl only gave up 1 first round draft pick in the trade not two why is this so hard for people to understand? Yeah they officially traded two, but we got one back in the trade.

Shane P. Hallam
05-02-2011, 07:32 AM
Atl only gave up 1 first round draft pick in the trade not two why is this so hard for people to understand? Yeah they officially traded two, but we got one back in the trade.

Would be the same as trading 2 for Fitzgerald. Yes, you kept one, but took a WR with it.

georgiafan
05-02-2011, 08:05 AM
Falcons wasnt gonna trade for a vet WR like Fitz who like Roddy White is around 30 years old. They said this a move for the future as well as the short term. Roddy White is 30 years old and while one of the best WR's in the league could only have 3 peak years left. Tony G could retire at any time and we all know about how long HB's left.

Falcons only gave up 4 players in this draft and two of them was 4th rounders. Here is a recent look at 4th round players drafted by the falcons since 2000. None of the guys they have drafted in the 4th round has went on to be anything to worry about losing.

C - Joe Hawley - Has yet to see the field
DE Lawrence Siburry - Can't get on the field with a weak DE unit
TE Martrez Milner - Never did anything
LB Stephen Nichols - average starter for a few years could sign with another team
DE Chuancy Davis - Still on the team avg at best rotaional guy
LB Demorro Williams - Had one solid year starter before leaving as a FA not sure if he is in the league anymore
FB Justin Griffith - nothing special and was drafted early for a FB
OG Martin Bibla - Did nothing
LB Matt Stewart - Did nothing
OG Michael Thompson - Dont't remember him

the_dark_knight
05-02-2011, 09:09 AM
i have no idea why anyone ever makes a deal like this for a wide receiver. since 2000, only TWO top ten draft picks at the position have won a super bowl. and one is the immortal travis taylor, who lucked his way onto the ravens. wide receivers are *never* worth a top ten draft pick, and they're certainly not worth what atlanta gave up for one.

Almost not even worth responding to as I'm sure you'll run and hide behind your head moderator tag, but alas, I will try to explain.

Atlanta doesn't have roster room for that many players, period. So giving up 4 draft picks, and swapping 1, doesn't really hurt us, especially when 2 of those players were likely to not amount to much/if anything. Atlanta has been in this position before, when we could have moved to get Calvin Johnson and didn't, we stood pat with our 3 draft picks that year and drafted Jamaal Anderson, Chris Houston, and Laurent Robinson. 2/3 aren't on our roster, and 1 is just around cause he was the #8 overall selection.

The Falcons also don't want to go spend crazy money on someone like Fitzgerald, his contract is going to be insane next year to lock him down for the back end of his career. So the Falcons instead of just trying to win right now, which is what Fitz would have been, gave themselves the best opportunity to win now, and in the future. One thing I think people forget is Atlanta isn't going to be in a position to draft a WR like that for quite some time, and it's not a small step to go from good to elite either. So the Falcons are doing what they can to take that step.

The Falcons offense just went from one where any team in the league could drop the SS in the box to stop the run + add coverage on Tony, then Roll the Free Safety over the top to help on coverage with Roddy, and leave Michael Jenkins alone in 1 on 1 coverage and have no fear of an explosive play, except for an exceptional play by one of these players. The issue is, the guy who should have been raking in catches and yardage in 1 on 1 coverage plays super soft, and now after being a vet in the league for 6 seasons, he still has yet to record a 100 yard receiving game. Despite being 6'5 220+ he's one of the softest WRs in the league and refuses to use his frame, or come back to a ball for anything. Now the Falcons have a WR who will instill fear into opposing team's defenses to the point where you can't leave him 1 on 1 or he will house you on the regular.

Jones doesn't just transform an offense, he transforms a team. When your defense doesn't have to play from behind, or in close situations a lot, when your defense can take chances and have no qualms about your offense being able to catch you back up in 1 quick strike, it opens up not only offensive, but defensive playbooks as well. It also tells the players on the team, we are serious about winning now, and in the future. Jones is the picture perfect WR for the Atlanta Falcons, his workman attitude will fit in great, his blocking allows Atlanta to continue to pound the run which they will not stop doing, his athleticism allows Matt Ryan to not have to be perfect on every throw. His H/W/S causes mismatches everywhere on the field, and the dude isn't afraid to take a hit, and is tough as nails, plays through anything.

It also now allows the Falcons to run a set of Jones, Jenkins, White, Gonzo, Turner/Quizz. Giving the Falcons a 3 wide set with 5 tremendous pass catchers, and 3 playmakers. I understand you guys are all jealous that your Front Office doesn't go out and get your team a serious game changer, so I'll let you continue to gripe on, but how often can a 13-3 team dramatically improve themselves for what will likely be a #25+ draft pick next year, and a high 50s selection this year? The Answer, not often.

The Saints went out and traded a 2nd rounder this year, higher than the Falcons, and a 1st rounder next year, again likely a 25ish pick, for a Runningback who wasn't even the best running back on his own college team. Yet everyone is talking about the 2 -4th rounders we gave up, as if we really had room on the roster for them anyway. Wonder how many teams out there would have given up a top flight starting running back for a 1st and 2nd round pick, I'd be willing to bet Carolina, and a few others would have gladly moved Stewart or Williams for that price, and with the impending free agency of Ronnie Brown, could have been had for no draft picks.

So, you guys hate on all you want, just know it's your jealousy that's showing. When the #5 scoring offense in the NFL is able to dramatically improve itself, and give one of the brightest young QBs in the NFL a significantly better weapon, I'm happy to take it, and thankfully so were the Browns, and the Falcons front office.

wordofi
05-02-2011, 09:51 AM
Do you think that if the ALT called AZ and offered two 1st rounders a 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder for Fitz they would have taken it?

The only position where you do a trade like that is quarterback. NO EXCEPTIONS! Quarterback is the only position that makes that much of an impact.

AntoinCD
05-02-2011, 09:59 AM
I dont mind good teams giving up draft picks to get a potentially elite player they would have no other chance at getting but the two things that bother me about this trade are;

1. They gave up a ******* boatload for him. Teams who give up multiple picks in future drafts often end up with a lack of both talent and depth in a few years. Forget what impact starters you get in the fourth round, but those unheard of interior linemen, or your backup RB, or your run stuffing DT, or your second TE, or your special teams aces...yip those are the guys you draft in the middle rounds and they make a huge impact on your team.

2. It's not like the Falcons didn't have any other needs. They still need another DE, is Peria Jerry going to have any sort of impact, they could use upgrades along the offensive line, a future TE, a future starting RB, secondary help.

Bosanac01
05-02-2011, 10:15 AM
Falcons want to upgrade their defense immediately. They did not want to draft a DE, wait for his time, and hope he pans out. TD said he will push hard in FA to get a proven DE.

As far as the Julio Jones trade, it isn't just getting a WR. It's changing the face of the offense. If anyone seen Falcons play a number of games in the last 3 years will know how Vanilla their offense actually is. Pretty much every play is predictable, with the motive to just move the chains.

With prime players like Tony G, Turner, Roddy getting up there in age, they are desperate to bring in a young explosive player. They did give up a whole lot, but Falcons already have pieces in place, and those extra picks aren't that important to them. Can't say how good the trade was yet. Only the success of Julio Jones can judge this deal, doesn't matter who the Browns select with those 5 picks.

georgiafan
05-02-2011, 10:15 AM
I'm not 100% sold on the trade and I think falcons gave up a little to much in trade. Alot of rumors have falcons going after a DE in FA like Charles Johnson or Ray Edwards. Charles Johnson is from GA and played his college ball at UGA. So you would have to think he would jump on the chance to come home and play for a winning team. If they sign one of those then that takes care of the other biggest need.

Also the falcons still had 9 picks going into this draft and they wasn't room for 9 players on this team. Still 6 other players was drafted that all fill a need for the team.

LB Akeem Dent - Can play both OLB and ILB and is a 5th year senior that can help right away. Nichols IS a FA and Peterson getting older.

HB Jacuizz Rodgers - Falcons needed a change of pace 3rd down pack as Norwood is no longer in the teams play. This was a major pick and he will help out right away and fits the term "explosive player" we was looking for.

K/P - Whatever the guys name is should start right away at either spot depending on which one is let go

DE Cliff Matthews - Hard working rotational DE that has a non stop motor. He will prob battle with Siburry or JA98 for a roster spot.

OL Andrew Jackson - Everyone says he is falcons type player and potential starter. He gives them insurance if the OG are not resigned or if the 3 OL from the past few years don't pan out

Bosanac01
05-02-2011, 10:19 AM
Can't say anyone didn't address their needs. The off-season just started.

the_dark_knight
05-02-2011, 10:21 AM
that's cute. 'i'm so oppressed because like, you're a mod, so let me start off with a bizarre, inane comment that has no relevance whatsoever to the conversation, so that when you DO reply, i can further compalin about how mean you are because you're a mod and like, your name is a different color than mine. boo fricking hoo.'

grow up.



so, you should always package your draft picks so that you don't have to cut players (which you'll do anyways) and so that a bad scouting department isn't exposed? that seems... logical, or something.



so, instead of spending crazy money on a WR who's actually proven that he can play in the nfl, you're going to spend crazy money on a WR who's proven nothing. brilliant. but hey, look at all of those stud wrs who've won the super bowl. oh... right.



why would i fear a rookie who's proven nothing in the nfl? i do appreciate the assumption that he's already a top tier nfl wideout, it's cute, but until he actually shows that he can beat an nfl cb, or run an nfl route, no one cares.



ah, more "he's already a top tier nfl receiver, and he's so good that he's actually made the defense better". is that why the lions won so many more games the year after they drafted calvin johnson? is that why the texans have gone to the playoffs so many times with andre johnson? is that why the cardinals won so many super bowls with fitz AND boldin? let me know when you catch onto the theme.



yes, i'm *jealous* that the broncos didn't trade their next 53 first round picks to take a wide receiver in the top ten. how'd you know? every single time i think something is stupid, it's clearly just jealousy.



i.e. - waaaaaaah, someone else did it to! why are you picking on us! other teams make dumb trades!



yup, not only am i 'jealous' i'm also 'hating'. i mean, you were clearly a julio jones away from winning the super bowl for the next decade straight.
LMAO @ you. Your Man Thong must be riding up.

tjsunstein
05-02-2011, 10:22 AM
The window of opportunity becomes significantly greater with Jones than Fitzgerald. Although, their odds in the short run would have dramatically increased with Fitzgerald, this is a business move. The Falcons are already a contender, they don't need to take on Fitzgerald and his contract. Granted, both moves would have been a luxury; Jones made more sense even though it made none.

PossibleCabbage
05-02-2011, 11:06 AM
Atlanta doesn't have roster room for that many players, period. So giving up 4 draft picks, and swapping 1, doesn't really hurt us, especially when 2 of those players were likely to not amount to much/if anything.

This argument always baffles me. If Atlanta's roster is so packed with talent, top to bottom that they don't actually have to make draft picks and they're basically obligated to trade away picks... explain to me why teams with better rosters, like New England and Green Bay made 9 and 10 draft picks respectively.

The argument doesn't make sense anyway. How is a team in any way lessened by bringing in guys to compete for the roles of the middle of the roster guys. It's not like Atlanta was incapable of improving at any position other than wide receiver (you have to admit they could use help on defense, too.) Training camp competition makes your team better. You start training camp with 80 guys, no matter how many guys you drafted, and you end up cutting at least 27 of those guys. Personally, I would prefer to end up cutting 27 good players because the rest of my players are even better.

georgiafan
05-02-2011, 11:31 AM
Julio made the best sense for the team both short and long term. The biggest gripe is the falcons could have used the 1st round pick on a DE. Look at the DE's that was off the board by pick #27 Miller, Watt, Claborn, Jordan, Quinn, Kerrigan. They would have been left picking the 7th ranked DE from the likes of Haywood, Brooks Reed, Sheard. The falcons have lots of bodies at DE just most of them are rotaional guys. A rookie DE would have just been another rotaion guy. If falcons are able to sign a good FA DE the trade makes more sense.

The other positon you potential could have used was CB, but the top 2 was off the board. Jimmy Smith was never gonna be a falcon with his off the field stuff. They also wasn't gonna draft a DT or S in the first round. They wasn't a OLB worth the pick either really.

Most of the core at every positon is set and they figured it was worth giving up 2 players in this years draft to take a WR. We still filled needs with the other 6 picks.


This argument always baffles me. If Atlanta's roster is so packed with talent, top to bottom that they don't actually have to make draft picks and they're basically obligated to trade away picks... explain to me why teams with better rosters, like New England and Green Bay made 9 and 10 draft picks respectively.

The argument doesn't make sense anyway. How is a team in any way lessened by bringing in guys to compete for the roles of the middle of the roster guys. It's not like Atlanta was incapable of improving at any position other than wide receiver (you have to admit they could use help on defense, too.) Training camp competition makes your team better. You start training camp with 80 guys, no matter how many guys you drafted, and you end up cutting at least 27 of those guys. Personally, I would prefer to end up cutting 27 good players because the rest of my players are even better.

bitonti
05-02-2011, 11:39 AM
i remember not too long ago the Browns traded down in the Mark Sanchez situation and got a good not great player in Alex Mack. They may have done the same thing here. Like they couldn't use Julio Jones?

as a general note Julio was way underrated, all draft season. He ran a 4.3 on a broken foot. He made a ton of huge plays at Bama and he run blocks like a beast. For a playoff team like the falcons, extra draft picks aren't gonna make the roster, better off getting a real blue chipper.

Halsey
05-02-2011, 12:07 PM
People can come up with this reason and that reason why the Falcons made a bad trade, but I doubt even the harshest critic of the team will have a problem with it if Jones plays up to his potential for a long time. He just turned 22 and could be helping Matt Ryan for the next decade. When Roddy White starts slowing down, the Falcons won't need to worry about finding a new go-to WR. Obviously, the Falcons would be in big trouble if Jones struggles with durability or just busts.

Bosanac01
05-02-2011, 12:51 PM
I don't know what the big debate is, but I know Thomas Dimitroff is incapable of making bad moves.


/Thread

the_dark_knight
05-02-2011, 12:51 PM
This argument always baffles me. If Atlanta's roster is so packed with talent, top to bottom that they don't actually have to make draft picks and they're basically obligated to trade away picks... explain to me why teams with better rosters, like New England and Green Bay made 9 and 10 draft picks respectively.

The argument doesn't make sense anyway. How is a team in any way lessened by bringing in guys to compete for the roles of the middle of the roster guys. It's not like Atlanta was incapable of improving at any position other than wide receiver (you have to admit they could use help on defense, too.) Training camp competition makes your team better. You start training camp with 80 guys, no matter how many guys you drafted, and you end up cutting at least 27 of those guys. Personally, I would prefer to end up cutting 27 good players because the rest of my players are even better.
This is a really weak draft, and you're talking about a 13-3 team with a really great core of very young players. There comes a point of diminishing returns, of course you want competition, and you want your team to keep getting better, but in order to step up from a 13-3 team to a big winner in the playoffs you have to have another level of talent. Bringing in late first, 2nd, and 4th rounders weren't going to change that bar at the WR position.

Falcons Roster:
QB: Ryan (star w/ superstar potential), Redman (qualified backup played well when called upon) John Parker Wilson (developmental clipboard guy)
RB: Turner (Pro Bowler), Norwood (crazy injury prone had to be replaced), Snelling (ultra productive backup), Rodgers (just drafted to replace Norwood)
FB: Mughelli (Pro Bowler, best run blocking FB in the NFL) Snelling
TE: Tony (HoFer heading towards the twilight) Peelle(suitable backup, good blocker, solid hands, no big play potential) Nothing else of note.
WR: Roddy (emerging superstar WR), Jenkins (soft, non competitive #2 WR), Douglas (coming back from injury, we'll see if he's 100% this year, not to be relied upon as a #2 for sure) Finneran (retiring), Meirer (showed promise in camp until injured, may not be worth much coming off major knee injury) Weems (Pro Bowl kick return guy, not much of a threat in terms of WR)
OL: Solid across the board, with 2 Pro Bowlers and a 3rd with Pro Bowl potential, LT is still a point of concern

DE: Abe (aging star), Kroy (try hard with super motor, hasn't had great production yet), Anderson (busted #8 overall selection, gives good swing ability) Sidbury (4th round selection with great ability, but unable to see the field other than special teams) Davis (qualified backup) Another area of concern
DT: Babs (one of the most underrated players in the NFL), Jerry (coming back from knee injury, showed great burst towards the end of the season) Peters (stepped in and played great as a 3rd rounder) Walker (had a couple of very nice games, tons of potential)
OLB: Spoon (1st round pick with tons of production before his injuries, looking for big things) Peterson (long in the tooth, yet somehow still a playmaker) Nicolas (great pass rusher, not the best scheme fit, may go in FA) Wire (great depth and ST player)
MLB: Lofton (potential star MLB with Pro Bowl potential, fought through injuries a lot last year) Wire (again great depth here) Dent (3rd round pick for additional depth and ST play)
CB: Robinson (played well but not great, hoping he gets more comfortable this year in his new scheme) Grimes (over achiever to the max) Williams (old, slow, time to go) Franks (flashed against Fitzgerald in the Cardinals game with a pick and pass breakup on the 2 passes thrown his way, should be nickel this year) Owens (showed great potential late in his rookie year, but struggled a bit trying to play nickel last year) Another area that the Falcons could use an upgrade)
S: Decoud (Pro Bowl caliber player) Moore (potential stud SS with tons of playmaking ability) Depth behind is fine


As you can see, there aren't a lot of positions with room for people to just come in.

DE, CB, WR, OLB. Sucks that 3 of the 4 are on defense, but where the Falcons are picking, they don't need more warm bodies, they need difference makers, and if that means getting all the way up to #6 for a WR who can change the face of an offense, so be it.

The issue I'm sure you can see is that it's going to take some big time talents to come in and take positions from the guys even at the question spots, it's going to take a big Free Agent defensive end someone who is polished and understands the game, not another youngster trying to adapt. This team given the schedule is looking like another 11+ win season is on the way, of course barring major injuries.

I know the Falcons aren't a flawless team, but they need to get to that next level, and mid rounders don't get you there, heck, not even many late firsts get you there at skill positions.

JBCX
05-02-2011, 12:58 PM
Here's the question you have to ask yourself: How far back will it set the organization if Julio Jones turns out to be nothing more than an average player, or worse yet, busts?

Because no prospect is ever a sure thing. Ever. Julio Jones could easily be a bust, and the consequences for the Falcons would be tremendous in the ensuing years. It'd be like flushing two consecutive years of drafts down the toilet for nothing.

georgiafan
05-02-2011, 01:18 PM
Here's the question you have to ask yourself: How far back will it set the organization if Julio Jones turns out to be nothing more than an average player, or worse yet, busts?

Because no prospect is ever a sure thing. Ever. Julio Jones could easily be a bust, and the consequences for the Falcons would be tremendous in the ensuing years. It'd be like flushing two consecutive years of drafts down the toilet for nothing.

Of course if he is a bust or an average starter it was a terrible move. Thomas D said that this wasnt a move they just thought of 2 days before the draft. He said it was something looked in as much depth as the pick of Ryan at #3. That was when the Ravens offerd a major trade to move up to that spot. Also the front office for me and most fans get the benefit of the doubt after making a bunch of good moves over the past few years.

bitonti
05-02-2011, 01:57 PM
It'd be like flushing two consecutive years of drafts down the toilet for nothing.

remember Mike Ditka traded his whole draft for Ricky Williams. it was a trade between the Saints and the Redskins

at the time, everyone said what a fool Ditka was... etc.

but now, many years later, look back at those players. the Redskins got no one from the Saints picks. Ricky Williams was in fact the only player of value in the deal.

we all love the draft but we often forget how many of these guys turn out to be completely worthless.

PossibleCabbage
05-02-2011, 02:32 PM
remember Mike Ditka traded his whole draft for Ricky Williams. it was a trade between the Saints and the Redskins

at the time, everyone said what a fool Ditka was... etc.

but now, many years later, look back at those players. the Redskins got no one from the Saints picks. Ricky Williams was in fact the only player of value in the deal.

we all love the draft but we often forget how many of these guys turn out to be completely worthless.

It's wrong to consider future draft picks as worthless (or worth less), because in the past people have squandered draft picks. The onus on maximizing value for draft picks lies on the team that's making them (that is, the team who receives them in a trade), but just because teams have wasted draft picks in the past doesn't mean we should diminsh the import of acquiring picks.

I mean, sometimes a second round pick gets you Brian Brohm or Pat White, but sometimes a second round pick gets you Anquan Boldin or Maurice Jones-Drew. Sometimes trading back up into the late first gets you Brady Quinn, and sometimes it gets you Clay Matthews. Acquiring a draft pick should simply be judged as "acquiring assets" and if the team in question fails to make good use of the asset, that's on them for drafting poorly, not on them for making the trade.

bitonti
05-02-2011, 02:46 PM
It's wrong to consider future draft picks as worthless (or worth less), because in the past people have squandered draft picks.

true but likewise the Falcons valuation of a blue chip WR over future and later draft picks shouldn't be considered foolish. Quantity over Quality is rarely a sound draft strategy. Quality almost always wins that equation. Another trade up comes to mind the Jets trading up for Darrelle Revis. In retrospect they could have traded all their picks and still came out ahead. In general I like the trade up, I question the trade down. the Browns couldn't use Julio Jones?

CrankthatCrabtree
05-02-2011, 03:20 PM
I love how everyone says how the Falcons are so "close" and such. Sure they had a good regular season, but usually a team needs to at least one playoff game before they get that kind of distinction.

PossibleCabbage
05-02-2011, 03:36 PM
Here's something that confuses me about the Julio Jones trade, and I wish a Falcons fan could explain it to me.

If the Falcons were really a young, talented receiver away from being a championship team... why not just wait until free agency starts and sign Sidney Rice. In the worst possible case, Sidney Rice is an RFA and the extent of which it would cost the Falcons to acquire him is a 1 and a 3 next year plus a contract that the Vikings are unwilling to match (possibly by way of poison pill). Jones is only 29 months younger than Rice, barring a rookie wage scale Jones's contract would likely be larger than Rice's, choosing Rice over Jones would net the Falcons between 3 and 5 additional additional (high) draft picks, and Sidney Rice has already learned to play wide receiver effectively in the NFL.

georgiafan
05-02-2011, 03:47 PM
That is something that I thought about and I really can't say for sure what the answer is. Maybe the team wasn't as high on Sidney Rice. Of his 4 years in the NFL he has only had one good year and is coming off a injury. Maybe they thought White and another vet like Rice or Fitz could have clashed. I don't see Julio having a problem taking a back seat to guys like Turner, White and Gonzo. I could see someone like Rice having a problem being the #2 WR. We don't know for sure what the money situation would be for the rookie wage scale. If that passes then it would have cost more money for FA like Rice. Either way it's a risky move.


Here's something that confuses me about the Julio Jones trade, and I wish a Falcons fan could explain it to me.

If the Falcons were really a young, talented receiver away from being a championship team... why not just wait until free agency starts and sign Sidney Rice. In the worst possible case, Sidney Rice is an RFA and the extent of which it would cost the Falcons to acquire him is a 1 and a 3 next year plus a contract that the Vikings are unwilling to match (possibly by way of poison pill). Jones is only 29 months older than Rice, barring a rookie wage scale Jones's contract would likely be larger than Rice's, choosing Rice over Jones would net the Falcons between 3 and 5 additional additional (high) draft picks, and Sidney Rice has already learned to play wide receiver effectively in the NFL.

Monomach
05-02-2011, 04:36 PM
The cognitive dissonance of the post-draft period and the inevitable method of resolving it never ceases to amaze me.

Best recent examples: first round Tebow, 12th overall Ponder, Austin over Paea, Herschel Walker Julio Jones trade

the_dark_knight
05-02-2011, 04:38 PM
Here's the question you have to ask yourself: How far back will it set the organization if Julio Jones turns out to be nothing more than an average player, or worse yet, busts?

Because no prospect is ever a sure thing. Ever. Julio Jones could easily be a bust, and the consequences for the Falcons would be tremendous in the ensuing years. It'd be like flushing two consecutive years of drafts down the toilet for nothing.

How far back would it set a team that was 13-3 last year, with the same squad returning, and the ability to bench Julio if he doesn't perform and field the same squad as we did last year?

Answer, none, not even one iota. How far back did Jamaal Anderson set the organization? None.

Just as you say no organization is ever 1 player away, nor is 1 player make or break for any organization.

Next

the_dark_knight
05-02-2011, 04:48 PM
#1 Money. Rice is going to get PAID, the number 6 overall pick won't be getting that kind of bank, not to mention we don't have to pay a first rounder's salary next year.

#2 One year wonder. No one wants to pay a WR when they're working for a contract, and had never done anything before.

#3 Julio has > potential than Rice

#4 Julio Jones can, and does block, and does so very well.

#5 Julio Jones is not a diva with an attitude that doesn't fit our lockerroom.

#6 We need a Defensive End to come in and make an immigration impact, not another young guy to come in and learn the ropes and take 3 years and maybe develop a little (Jamaal Anderson) We'd much rather spend our cash on a Defensive End like Charles Johnson or Ray Edwards who can come in and contribute from day 1 than risk it all on yet another drafted DE who have yet to pan out for us.

#7 Julio Jones is the best WR in this class for the scheme the Falcons run, and in fact, may have been the best fit of any player in the draft, except possibly Peterson (who in large part would be wasted due to our defensive "scheme")

#8 We now have a dynamic deep threat to force people into different coverages and to not double Roddy, or they will have to pay for it, or they will have to pull the 8th out of the box, and pay for it that way.

#9 Uncertainty of the FA/RFA/UFA situations. It would have cost us this year's and next year's first and likely this year's 2nd as well to try to work out a deal with a team like Arizona for a player like Fitz, who is going to garner a massive contract, and still not sure when / if that sort of thing is going to be available to happen. Obviously that speaks to our defense as well, but people keep pointing to us giving up 40+ to Green Bay in the playoffs, people have to remember not all of those points were scored on the defense, in fact the play that broke our back in that game was the interception going into halftime that was returned for a touchdown, until then the game was well within our reach and we were gaining momentum. But TD said this is what influenced the decision.

Those are the reasons I could come up with.
Here's something that confuses me about the Julio Jones trade, and I wish a Falcons fan could explain it to me.

If the Falcons were really a young, talented receiver away from being a championship team... why not just wait until free agency starts and sign Sidney Rice. In the worst possible case, Sidney Rice is an RFA and the extent of which it would cost the Falcons to acquire him is a 1 and a 3 next year plus a contract that the Vikings are unwilling to match (possibly by way of poison pill). Jones is only 29 months younger than Rice, barring a rookie wage scale Jones's contract would likely be larger than Rice's, choosing Rice over Jones would net the Falcons between 3 and 5 additional additional (high) draft picks, and Sidney Rice has already learned to play wide receiver effectively in the NFL.

SativaDominant
05-23-2011, 07:54 PM
I'm sorry, but there is no way that you can convince me that there is a 43 pick difference (even more, when you consider what Atlanta gave up to get him) in terms of talent between Julio Jones and Greg Little. It's asinine.

Iamcanadian
05-27-2011, 01:15 PM
Here's something that confuses me about the Julio Jones trade, and I wish a Falcons fan could explain it to me.

If the Falcons were really a young, talented receiver away from being a championship team... why not just wait until free agency starts and sign Sidney Rice. In the worst possible case, Sidney Rice is an RFA and the extent of which it would cost the Falcons to acquire him is a 1 and a 3 next year plus a contract that the Vikings are unwilling to match (possibly by way of poison pill). Jones is only 29 months younger than Rice, barring a rookie wage scale Jones's contract would likely be larger than Rice's, choosing Rice over Jones would net the Falcons between 3 and 5 additional additional (high) draft picks, and Sidney Rice has already learned to play wide receiver effectively in the NFL.

First, Jones has the potential to be another Andre Johnson, Rice is just another one year wonder without the talent to spread a defense that a Johnson provides. No one is mistaking Rice for a superstar. If Minny thought for a moment that Rice had real star potential, they would have resigned him long ago or franchised him.

Second, Atlanta isn't being run by a weak GM incapable of judging talent. He, like most solid GM's believe Jones will be a huge star in the NFL especially with a franchise QB throwing him the ball.
I think it is a safe bet to say Atlanta with Jones, will be one of the top 5 offenses in the NFL for the foreseeable future, and in today's NFL, offense is the name of the game with the current rules.
You can add in another factor in the trade, Jones is an excellent blocker for a WR which will only enhance Atlanta's running game making their offense even more efficient.

What did it really cost them in terms of draft picks? At #27, you are talking about 2nd round talent and next year, with Jones, they could be giving up an even later pick. A next year's 1st round pick only carries the value as a 2nd rounder for this year's draft, and considering how late a pick it will be, Atlanta was in effect giving up 3rd round value to help acquire Jones. Heck, even Cleveland had to give up a 3rd rounder plus the #27 pick to get a decent 1st rounder in Taylor, showing how little the #27 pick was really worth.

This trade was brilliant in my opinion, whenever a team drafting very late in round 1 can acquire a top 10 talent for just picks, an almost impossible feat, you grab it every day of the year if you can and never look back. Say whatever you want about Jones but in the end he was a top 10 talent with the potential of an Andre Johnson, and together with Matt Ryan will be a terror in the NFL for the next decade and will likely include at least a couple of SB rings as a reward. If you think the price was to high for this kind of potential, I really question your thinking.

Maybe This Year Mayhew
05-27-2011, 01:46 PM
First, Jones has the potential to be another Andre Johnson, Rice is just another one year wonder without the talent to spread a defense that a Johnson provides. No one is mistaking Rice for a superstar. If Minny thought for a moment that Rice had real star potential, they would have resigned him long ago or franchised him.

Second, Atlanta isn't being run by a weak GM incapable of judging talent. He, like most solid GM's believe Jones will be a huge star in the NFL especially with a franchise QB throwing him the ball.
I think it is a safe bet to say Atlanta with Jones, will be one of the top 5 offenses in the NFL for the foreseeable future, and in today's NFL, offense is the name of the game with the current rules.
You can add in another factor in the trade, Jones is an excellent blocker for a WR which will only enhance Atlanta's running game making their offense even more efficient.

What did it really cost them in terms of draft picks? At #27, you are talking about 2nd round talent and next year, with Jones, they could be giving up an even later pick. A next year's 1st round pick only carries the value as a 2nd rounder for this year's draft, and considering how late a pick it will be, Atlanta was in effect giving up 3rd round value to help acquire Jones. Heck, even Cleveland had to give up a 3rd rounder plus the #27 pick to get a decent 1st rounder in Taylor, showing how little the #27 pick was really worth.

This trade was brilliant in my opinion, whenever a team drafting very late in round 1 can acquire a top 10 talent for just picks, an almost impossible feat, you grab it every day of the year if you can and never look back. Say whatever you want about Jones but in the end he was a top 10 talent with the potential of an Andre Johnson, and together with Matt Ryan will be a terror in the NFL for the next decade and will likely include at least a couple of SB rings as a reward. If you think the price was to high for this kind of potential, I really question your thinking.

Agreed. Losing the late 4ths no big deal and losing a late 1st next year and 2nd this year to acquire a top 10 talent is a good trade for a fairly complete team in Atlanta. Yes they lose the 27th this year also but they still had a 1st round pick turning 27 into pick number 6. So they lost a total of two extra picks I would care about in the late 1st next year and 2nd rounder this year to acquire a top ten talent. Good deal for both teams as the Browns have more holes and Atlanta gets a stud. Of course if Jones busts it doesn't look as great but hindsight is 20/20. Value wise it works for both teams.

descendency
05-27-2011, 02:22 PM
I just ask cause wouldn't you want Fitz over a unproven Jones.

Jones is also younger. I'm not saying it's a good idea, but high drafted players are like cars. Once you drive them off the lot (select them in the draft), their value tends to go down. In rare exceptions, they become extremely valuable.

roscoesdad27
05-27-2011, 05:16 PM
I think Jones will be offensive rookie of the year and the falcons will have the best offense in the league next season but that isn't what was needed to get past g.b., the team you have to have in mind when boldly aiming for the superbowl with a trade like this. The pack put up 48 points at your place, Aaron Rodgers embarrassed the defense. There is no impact d.e. in free agency and a lot of competition for what's there + your best d.e. is a year or so away from retirement and better suited at l.e. anyways. Not to mention the w.r. need was for a #2 guy that coulda been had at great value with Greg Little in round 2. This woulda been a good move if the falcons were truly one player away or something but that's not the case here imho. It's not like they have an aging q.b. who's window of opportunity is closing or a defense that can afford to be neglected. It's not like the pack beat yall 14 - 10 either.....this was a desperate move by a delusioned owner, making it a bad trade.

B. Reed + G. Little + a first round pick in 2012 > J. Jones

SativaDominant
05-27-2011, 05:34 PM
First, Jones has the potential to be another Andre Johnson, Rice is just another one year wonder without the talent to spread a defense that a Johnson provides. No one is mistaking Rice for a superstar. If Minny thought for a moment that Rice had real star potential, they would have resigned him long ago or franchised him.

Second, Atlanta isn't being run by a weak GM incapable of judging talent. He, like most solid GM's believe Jones will be a huge star in the NFL especially with a franchise QB throwing him the ball.
I think it is a safe bet to say Atlanta with Jones, will be one of the top 5 offenses in the NFL for the foreseeable future, and in today's NFL, offense is the name of the game with the current rules.
You can add in another factor in the trade, Jones is an excellent blocker for a WR which will only enhance Atlanta's running game making their offense even more efficient.

What did it really cost them in terms of draft picks? At #27, you are talking about 2nd round talent and next year, with Jones, they could be giving up an even later pick. A next year's 1st round pick only carries the value as a 2nd rounder for this year's draft, and considering how late a pick it will be, Atlanta was in effect giving up 3rd round value to help acquire Jones. Heck, even Cleveland had to give up a 3rd rounder plus the #27 pick to get a decent 1st rounder in Taylor, showing how little the #27 pick was really worth.

This trade was brilliant in my opinion, whenever a team drafting very late in round 1 can acquire a top 10 talent for just picks, an almost impossible feat, you grab it every day of the year if you can and never look back. Say whatever you want about Jones but in the end he was a top 10 talent with the potential of an Andre Johnson, and together with Matt Ryan will be a terror in the NFL for the next decade and will likely include at least a couple of SB rings as a reward. If you think the price was to high for this kind of potential, I really question your thinking.

Completely disagree, especially regarding Jones' upside. He's not the next Andre Johnson. 4.39 or not, that 40 speed absolutely doesn't translate onto his game tape. Plus, when you factor in the incredibly volatile success of highly drafted receivers coupled with the fact that they're going to need a massive overhaul defensively soon, I fail to see the upside of giving up multiple picks for someone who is far closer to Reggie Williams than Andre Johnson.

Like Roscoe and I have both stated, there is no way anybody can justify the huge disparity in where Jones and Little were picked, as they're essentially the same guy. It's reminiscent of the huge disparity in perceived value between Crabtree and Nicks.

Saints-Tigers
05-27-2011, 05:39 PM
Not so bold prediction. Saints finish ahead of Falcons this season offensively.

Halsey
05-27-2011, 05:59 PM
If Greg Little is so close to Jones, why did he only catch 6 TDs his whole time in college? Jones caught more TDs in 2010 than Little did his entire college career.

SativaDominant
05-27-2011, 06:19 PM
If Greg Little is so close to Jones, why did he only catch 6 TDs his whole time in college? Jones caught more TDs in 2010 than Little did his entire college career.

Little only starting for one season at UNC may have something to do with that.

NFL scouting is not a statistical or numbers game. It's about projectable NFL traits, and people are way, way, way too generous with Jones' upside. Understandable though, as he's got good production in the SEC, is big, strong, and ran a fast 40.

However, he's slow in and out of breaks (despite relatively good route running and good hip flexability), and his acceleration is poor. Like I said, that 4.39 absolutely DOES NOT translate on game tape. He'll be a decent complimentary receiver in the NFL who does dirty work across the middle. Nice player? Sure. Worth his draft slot (plus what they gave up for him)? **** no.

Roddoliver
05-27-2011, 06:54 PM
Horrible trade by the Falcons. Such move deserves an F. Just awful. If it was for a QB that could eventually become the franchise QB... But for a WR? Even worse, a #2 WR to complement Roddy White? Fail.

initial_flo
05-27-2011, 07:00 PM
The Falcons better be thaaaaat close to being a super bowl contender otherwise this could really hurt them in the intermediate term. They put most of their draft eggs into one basket, at a position that wasn't a glaring need to begin with. I think Jones will be good, but he better turn out to be something really special to make this trade worth it.

IMO the trade wasn't worth it, the Falcons got straight embarrassed by Aaron Rodgers and the boys on defense. The should have addressed that and gone for a Sidney Rice or who ever in FA. There are only some many balls to go around in a balanced offense like the Falcons have anyway.

A boatload of draft picks for a good to great #2 guy in a balanced offense? No thanks.

Brown Leader
05-28-2011, 09:19 AM
First, Jones has the potential to be another Andre Johnson, Rice is just another one year wonder without the talent to spread a defense that a Johnson provides. No one is mistaking Rice for a superstar. If Minny thought for a moment that Rice had real star potential, they would have resigned him long ago or franchised him.

Second, Atlanta isn't being run by a weak GM incapable of judging talent. He, like most solid GM's believe Jones will be a huge star in the NFL especially with a franchise QB throwing him the ball.
I think it is a safe bet to say Atlanta with Jones, will be one of the top 5 offenses in the NFL for the foreseeable future, and in today's NFL, offense is the name of the game with the current rules.
So... something like the Texans the past 3 seasons? (making the enormous presumption that he'll be on par with the best WR in the league or be the league's best in the near future.)
You can add in another factor in the trade, Jones is an excellent blocker for a WR which will only enhance Atlanta's running game making their offense even more efficient.
He's overrated in this department-potentially great because of his size & style but he's not dominant.

What did it really cost them in terms of draft picks? At #27, you are talking about 2nd round talent and next year, with Jones, they could be giving up an even later pick. A next year's 1st round pick only carries the value as a 2nd rounder for this year's draft, and considering how late a pick it will be, Atlanta was in effect giving up 3rd round value to help acquire Jones. Heck, even Cleveland had to give up a 3rd rounder plus the #27 pick to get a decent 1st rounder in Taylor, showing how little the #27 pick was really worth.
Pretty twisted rationale here. The notion that top ten picks are the cream of the crop and late 1st round or 2nd round talent are not even comparable is just not accurate, when you're judging 3 years down the road.

This trade was brilliant in my opinion, whenever a team drafting very late in round 1 can acquire a top 10 talent for just picks, an almost impossible feat, you grab it every day of the year if you can and never look back. Say whatever you want about Jones but in the end he was a top 10 talent with the potential of an Andre Johnson, and together with Matt Ryan will be a terror in the NFL for the next decade and will likely include at least a couple of SB rings as a reward. If you think the price was to high for this kind of potential, I really question your thinking.
Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.

ellsy82
05-28-2011, 09:57 AM
Hate to be a thread killer...but all this arguement is kinda pointless. We don't or can't know if this trade was good or not. If the Dirty Birds win the superbowl next year with Jones at second wide, it'll shut a lot of you up aweful quick. In contrast, if the Falcons miss the playoffs entirely, some of you may be chastised. There's simply no way to know if it was worth it yet.

I'll stake my claim as one of the guys that think they overpaid tho.

Iamcanadian
05-28-2011, 10:01 AM
Little only starting for one season at UNC may have something to do with that.

NFL scouting is not a statistical or numbers game. It's about projectable NFL traits, and people are way, way, way too generous with Jones' upside. Understandable though, as he's got good production in the SEC, is big, strong, and ran a fast 40.

However, he's slow in and out of breaks (despite relatively good route running and good hip flexability), and his acceleration is poor. Like I said, that 4.39 absolutely DOES NOT translate on game tape. He'll be a decent complimentary receiver in the NFL who does dirty work across the middle. Nice player? Sure. Worth his draft slot (plus what they gave up for him)? **** no.

Jones was also playing on a broken foot when he worked out at the combine which might just account for his slowness out of his breaks. His foot injury was considered worse than Crabtree's and Crabtree couldn't even workout.
As for his 4.39 speed, did you ever think to ask yourself how fast he might be on a healed foot???

I don't know anyone in the NFL who ranked Jones out of the top 10 even with his foot injury so who are you to say scouts and GM's are too generous in their appraisal of Jones' potential.

Fans love to be critical of players but NFL scouts and GM's for the most part know exactly what they are doing and what the potential of a prospect is. Dimitroff is no Matt Millen and when he puts his stamp of approval on a prospect, it carries a lot of weight.

I also like how all the critics fail to breakdown exactly what Atlanta gave up for Jones. They talk about the #27 pick and a similar pick next year like they were sure stars and not the very average players they are likely to be.
Even Cleveland admitted as much as they surrendered their #3 pick plus the #27 pick to move up in an attempt to get something worthwhile.

Since you like to talk about statistical analysis, the odds clearly show that higher picks have a far greater chance to be stars than later picks. Nobody can measure Jones' heart or his desire to be great, but his potential is off the charts.

Iamcanadian
05-28-2011, 10:23 AM
So... something like the Texans the past 3 seasons? (making the enormous presumption that he'll be on par with the best WR in the league or be the league's best in the near future.)

I said he has that kind of potential and Atlanta was 13-3 last year vs a team that has never reached the playoffs. When a 13-3 team can add a potential superstar, for what amounts to 2 very late 1st rounders, it is a steal IMO.
Heck, Cleveland didn't even think they would get much value staying at #27 and it cost them another 3rd to get something worthwhile dropping the value they got for trading the pick in the 1st place.

He's overrated in this department-potentially great because of his size & style but he's not dominant.

This is the kind of criticism that kills me, Jones was recognized as a very skilled blocker in Alabama's offense and who are you to say he is overrated???
If anything, people don't take this aspect of his game seriously enough. He has Hines Ward potential as a NFL blocker and that is worth quite a bit.

Pretty twisted rationale here. The notion that top ten picks are the cream of the crop and late 1st round or 2nd round talent are not even comparable is just not accurate, when you're judging 3 years down the road.

The facts clearly support that high picks are far more likely to be stars than lower picks, that's why Cleveland turned around and used a 3rd to move up to get something worthwhile in round 1.


Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.

Who designated the Dolphins, Bengals and 49ers as playoff calibre teams??? That's a stretch. So you are left with one example, Bolden by Baltimore and who is to say Baltimore won't succeed with Flacco's development and that the Ravens success last year didn't have a lot to do with Bolden being on the team.
As for Dallas, Tennessee and NY, their failure had little to do with the play of their WR's.

If I were you, I'd be worrying that the constant trading of top 10 picks by Cleveland has NEVER been a winning formula in rebuilding a team in the NFL, and has never led to success in my 55 years of following pro football and in my opinion will doom Cleveland to another decade of mediocrity. That's the truly sad part of this trade, that it will turnout to be a disaster for my beloved Browns.

VAfy-ya
05-28-2011, 05:26 PM
Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.

Not to hi-jack the OP's thread, but these scenarios you've mentioned have nothing to do with one another, nor the Falcons trade. No one player other than a QB can change a team's fortune on Sundays, as a whole. Crabtree, Dez, Nicks, nor Britt were reaches. They were needs(except maybe for Dallas), which those teams drafted for accordingly. Crabtree fell to the Niners and was regarded as huge value at the time. Nicks may have been a mild reach to some but I thought he had first round talent. Britt was decent value. I don't see the connection, as none of them were thought to be the missing piece to anything to special. Just upgrades at positions of need. Now those free agent signings might help your argument to some degree.

Duffman57
05-29-2011, 03:51 AM
The question I have is what makes Jones such a better option than a Vincent Jackson if their essentially committing to the win now mentality? Vincent Jackson costs less, is a proven star, top 10 receiver in the league when he plays and is ready to go right now. why would they spend 2 1sts, a 2nd and 2 4th when they could have given 2 2nds at the most for VJ the day that the lockout was postponed?

gpngc
05-30-2011, 11:41 AM
Because you don't know if you can get VJax, or any FA WR for that matter. You know you can get Julio Jones.

Two points:

#1 - We are overrating draft picks because this is a draft site. Most draft classes yield 2-3 players that make a positive impact on their franchise for more than 2 years. Sure, there are exceptions, but it comes down to how the player performs. Even the best organizations and GMs miss on many, many draft picks. That is not an indictment of the scouting departments - it's what makes the draft so special and so interesting.

#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL. If they continue to play on a similar level, NO defense will be able to match up on paper. The only chance you have, esepcially in that dome, is to score with them. This is an important point because it explains the Falcons reasoning for giving up multiple draft picks.

keylime_5
05-30-2011, 11:50 AM
It should be interesting to follow the careers of Julio Jones compared to Greg Little. I know it's not really a big deal to Atlanta fans what the draft picks they traded away do as long as Jones is a star for them, but they gave up Phil Taylor, Greg Little, Owen Marecic, a 2012 1st and a 2012 4th so far for Jones. 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and 2 fourths for Jones is a big payday given up for a WR.

VAfy-ya
05-30-2011, 12:45 PM
#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL. If they continue to play on a similar level, NO defense will be able to match up on paper. The only chance you have, esepcially in that dome, is to score with them. This is an important point because it explains the Falcons reasoning for giving up multiple draft picks.

Taking nothing away from the Packers and their SB run, Im not buying that their offense is this "unstoppable force" that can't be contained. Similar sentiments were used to decribe the Pats offense in '08 and the Saints offense after they won their SB. Defenses will adjust and they will have to adapt to those adjustments.....happens to every SB champion. Its not like they cruised through the playoffs to a SB win. Philly and Chicago played them well. And for as great as Rodgers and that offense was in the SB, if Mendenhall doesn't fumble away a crticial scoring oppournity, we may not be having this conversation.

The Falcons did what they thought they needed to do to take the next step offensively to compete with the better teams around the league. But they're defense still lags behind, personel wise, to put them in the conversation as a legitmate SB contender, IMO.

FTRWRTR
05-30-2011, 01:20 PM
Recent history has shown, playoff caliber teams (or hopefuls) reaching or investing big for a WR to put them over the top hasn't worked. Ravens-Boldin, Dolphins-Marshall, Bengals-T.O., Niners-Crabtree. Even when they're successful, Dez, Britt, Nicks, they don't drastically change the team's fortunes. Dimitroff is one of the best and this looks solid for both teams right now but history is not on his side on this one.IMO those aren't good comparisons:

Marshall has character issues
TO is on the downside of his career
Crabtree has a questionable work ethic.

The only wr you mentioned might be boldin but with all due respect, Ryan is a better qb than Flacco.

The bottom line for me tho' is that before Dimitroff the Falcons NEVER had two consecutive winning seasons and in the three years since hiring Dimitroff they've had three winning seasons. And in two of those three years they've had at least 11 wins. I, personally wouldn't have done the trade but Dimitroff has shown he knows what he's doing and I'm going to trust him.

bucfan12
05-30-2011, 01:56 PM
All I'm saying is, Julio Jones better become a star. You don't give up an additional 1st rounder, 2nd, and 2 4th round picks for a guy who might just compliment Roddy White.

He will always be linked to Greg Little, who I thought could have been just as good as a pick.

Now if they were able to swing that deal for AJ Green, then it would have been worth it. Jones drops to many balls and doesn't play as fast has he timed at the combine.

Sorry, but I just don't think Jones was worth that much of a price tag.

FTRWRTR
05-30-2011, 02:40 PM
All I'm saying is, Julio Jones better become a star. You don't give up an additional 1st rounder, 2nd, and 2 4th round picks for a guy who might just compliment Roddy White.

He will always be linked to Greg Little, who I thought could have been just as good as a pick.

Now if they were able to swing that deal for AJ Green, then it would have been worth it. Jones drops to many balls and doesn't play as fast has he timed at the combine.

Sorry, but I just don't think Jones was worth that much of a price tag.You're entitled to you're opinion but IMO he's better than green and I'm a UGA fan.

vidae
05-30-2011, 05:01 PM
We won't know for a while yet whether or not this deal was worth it, but you gotta love a GM who is willing to move up for a player they really believe in.

bucfan12
05-30-2011, 08:02 PM
We won't know for a while yet whether or not this deal was worth it, but you gotta love a GM who is willing to move up for a player they really believe in.

True. I mean, Julio Jones is a great player. The thing I like is, if you feel that you need that 1 player to open up your offense, then you go get him.

What I didn't like is, Julio isn't the player nor prospect Calvin Johnson was, and they gave up the Max for what you normally give up for that elite type of WR. Julio is going to have that pressure to live up to the price Atlanta paid for, so we'll see if it works out.

Bucs_Rule
05-30-2011, 10:34 PM
#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL. If they continue to play on a similar level, NO defense will be able to match up on paper. The only chance you have, esepcially in that dome, is to score with them. This is an important point because it explains the Falcons reasoning for giving up multiple draft picks.

The Bears held them to only 14 points.

FUNBUNCHER
05-30-2011, 10:57 PM
I think the Falcons only overpaid a little for JJ, not totally.

The problem for Atlanta in reaching the SB IMO isn't a more explosive vertical offense but a better D in the 4th quarter.

But giving Matt Ryan some toys to play with should always be a priority when developing a franchise QB.

I think Julio will be a better pro than collegian and his upside makes him hard to pass if your team needed a WR in the 2011 draft.

I like the aggressive move by the Falcons, even if they overpaid.

Halsey
05-31-2011, 01:56 AM
This play might have gone much differently had it been Julio Jones instead of Michael Jenkins being targeted: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81db449f

The other int came partially because Williams knew Ryan wanted to get it to White, because he couldn't trust Jenkins.

AntoinCD
05-31-2011, 04:56 AM
In general im not in favour of drafting WRs that high but in this case I actually think Atlanta made a smart move, sure they gave up an awful lot but I believe it may be worth it.

Teams who take WRs early in the draft often struggle to make much of a difference because its like putting a $5k plasma TV in a mobile home. However the Falcons already have a very good team and they just added a dynamic receiving threat to compliment Roddy White, not necessarily play second fiddle as most are suggesting.

The only major issue I have with this trade is they still need defensive help, particularly up front. Although adding a potentially elite playmaker instead of someone like Jabaal Sheard and Randall Cobb etc may turn out to be the better move

BamaFalcon59
05-31-2011, 10:29 AM
In general im not in favour of drafting WRs that high but in this case I actually think Atlanta made a smart move, sure they gave up an awful lot but I believe it may be worth it.

Teams who take WRs early in the draft often struggle to make much of a difference because its like putting a $5k plasma TV in a mobile home. However the Falcons already have a very good team and they just added a dynamic receiving threat to compliment Roddy White, not necessarily play second fiddle as most are suggesting.

The only major issue I have with this trade is they still need defensive help, particularly up front. Although adding a potentially elite playmaker instead of someone like Jabaal Sheard and Randall Cobb etc may turn out to be the better move

These are my thoughts.

As to those who are saying Jones isn't the type of receiver you move up for like that, generally I would agree. But the thing with Jones is that he has the potential to be an All-Pro and the best receiver in the class. The question is and has always been if he will fulfill his potential. And had a mediocre team selected him I may be worried about his future prospects. But he came into an absolutely ideal situation and gets to learn from one of the league's top receivers in his prime. And if Jones lives up to his potential, he is definitely the type of receiver worthy of a top five to ten pick.

IMO it's pretty parallel to the Isac Bruce/ Torry Holt situation. Bruce was the first pick in the second round and only going on 27 when Holt was selected in the first round in 1996. Holt was a similar receiver to Bruce and selected with the sixth pick in the draft. Their dominance overlapped for a few years and once Bruce began to decline Holt continued to be in his prime.

PACKmanN
05-31-2011, 06:08 PM
I didn`t like this trade because of the Falcons are not one player away from being a Superbowl contender. Does this move make their passing attack better, yes, but the team`s o-line isn`t solid. Next year`s class is pretty deep for inside and some outside linemen, it could set them back. Also with Gozo aging, a need for DE, maybe DT, OLB, and depth in the secondary arise.

Iamcanadian
06-01-2011, 11:07 AM
Trade Value Chart analysis of the trade:

#6 pick = 1600

#27th pick = 680
#59th pick = 310
#124th pick = 48

You had to factor in that a 2012 pick drops a round when traded for a 2011 pick.
1st round pick next year = 310
4th round pick next year = 29.4

Grand Total paid for the #6 pick = 1477.4

Cleveland then had to give up their own 3rd #77, to get Taylor = 205 points, so in effect, Cleveland got only 1272.4 points for the trade if you factor in the Taylor trade.

These are the facts not suppositions and if I'm the GM giving up the #6 pick, to move back to #27, I would want a bonus for going back that far, say an extra 100 points = 1700. The FACT Cleveland only got 1477.4 for the trade makes the trade stink for them and to further worsen the trade, Cleveland had to expend a further 205 points to get a decent return in round 1.
IMO, Dimitroff took Cleveland to the cleaners in this trade, and other GM's are wondering how they missed out. They are all walking around trying to figure out why Cleveland made this trade for so little value.
Worse yet, because of the hesitation by Baltimore, Cleveland ended up with the 26th pick instead of the 27th pick costing them another 20 points.
You can argue all you want about how good a prospect Jones is but he was going in the top 10 even with an injury considered worse than Crabtree's, and has a real shot to be a huge star at the next level. IMO, he will easily replace White as their #1 option.
I see no way Cleveland got value for the #6 pick and the trade could even look worse if Atlanta finishes with a higher pick than #27 next year.
I've seen a lot of trades over my 55 years of following the NFL closely and this will go down as one of the worst for Cleveland.

This would have been a much fairer trade:

#6 =1600

In return:
# 27
# 59
# 91
# 124

Next year
1st
3rd
4th

For a total of 1662 points and even then Cleveland still lost 225 points in trades.
I see absolutely no way this trade made any sense on Cleveland's part.

SativaDominant
06-01-2011, 11:19 AM
Trade Value Chart analysis of the trade:

#6 pick = 1600

#27th pick = 680
#59th pick = 310
#124th pick = 48

You had to factor in that a 2012 pick drops a round when traded for a 2011 pick.
1st round pick next year = 310
4th round pick next year = 29.4

Grand Total paid for the #6 pick = 1477.4

Cleveland then had to give up their own 3rd #77, to get Taylor = 205 points, so in effect, Cleveland got only 1272.4 points for the trade if you factor in the Taylor trade.

These are the facts not suppositions and if I'm the GM giving up the #6 pick, to move back to #27, I would want a bonus for going back that far, say an extra 100 points = 1700. The FACT Cleveland only got 1477.4 for the trade makes the trade stink for them and to further worsen the trade, Cleveland had to expend a further 205 points to get a decent return in round 1.
IMO, Dimitroff took Cleveland to the cleaners in this trade, and other GM's are wondering how they missed out. They are all walking around trying to figure out why Cleveland made this trade for so little value.
Worse yet, because of the hesitation by Baltimore, Cleveland ended up with the 26th pick instead of the 27th pick costing them another 20 points.
You can argue all you want about how good a prospect Jones is but he was going in the top 10 even with an injury considered worse than Crabtree's, and has a real shot to be a huge star at the next level. IMO, he will easily replace White as their #1 option.
I see no way Cleveland got value for the #6 pick and the trade could even look worse if Atlanta finishes with a higher pick than #27 next year.
I've seen a lot of trades over my 55 years of following the NFL closely and this will go down as one of the worst for Cleveland.

It's a terrible trade because the arbitrary trade value chart that teams barely use anymore says so!!!111oneoneone

It's pretty much a carbon copy of the trade between Baltimore and Jacksonville in 2008, when Jax jumped up 18 spots to nab Harvey. In fact, the Ravens got much less than what the Browns got this year. Completing the cycle, the Ravens moved back up from their low 20 spot to take Flacco. The Ravens took significantly less than the "trade value chart" said they should, and moved back up. The Jaguars got a hell of a deal to move into the top 10 for Harvey. Looking back, you tell me who got the better deal.

Cleveland now has a significant amount of ammo to get their franchise QB next offseason in McCoy doesn't work out (and I don't assume he will - gotta have a strong arm in that division). I don't see how that can be deemed a massive failure, considering this past year's abysmal QB class and lack of free agent options. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather have the best 1-tech/NT talent in the draft, a wide receiver who is virtually the same ******* prospect as Julio and an extra first rounder next year, or would I rather give a pretty good (but far from can't miss) WR prospect a top 10 contract. Seems like a pretty damned easy decision to me.

Julio Jones could very well be a star in this league and make the trade worthwhile to Atlanta. On the other hand, he could be the next highly touted "can't miss" wide receiver who ends up nothing more than a volume possession receiver who works the underneath stuff because he's too slow in and out of his breaks to get separation at the NFL level and can't track the ball in the air. If those aren't huge flaws for a WR, I don't know what is.

To each his own, though. NFL Network said he'd be good, so it must be true.

Iamcanadian
06-01-2011, 12:02 PM
It's a terrible trade because the arbitrary trade value chart that teams barely use anymore says so!!!111oneoneone

First, I follow the draft very closely and if you breakdown draft day trades over the past decade, you will find draft 101 shows clearly that the Draft Value Chart is still much in use by almost every team.
Sure, there are weak draft years where value doesn't hold true but it is amazing how close most of the draft day trades still follow the chart.

It's pretty much a carbon copy of the trade between Baltimore and Jacksonville in 2008, when Jax jumped up 18 spots to nab Harvey. In fact, the Ravens got much less than what the Browns got this year. Completing the cycle, the Ravens moved back up from their low 20 spot to take Flacco. The Ravens took significantly less than the "trade value chart" said they should, and moved back up. The Jaguars got a hell of a deal to move into the top 10 for Harvey. Looking back, you tell me who got the better deal.

Not all GM's are equal, Jacksonville is not a good drafting team and has paid the price for it. Dimitroff on the other hand, has built Atlanta into one of the top teams in the NFL and doesn't make too many mistakes on draft day.

Cleveland now has a significant amount of ammo to get their franchise QB next offseason in McCoy doesn't work out (and I don't assume he will - gotta have a strong arm in that division). I don't see how that can be deemed a massive failure, considering this past year's abysmal QB class and lack of free agent options. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather have the best 1-tech/NT talent in the draft, a wide receiver who is virtually the same ******* prospect as Julio and an extra first rounder next year, or would I rather give a pretty good (but far from can't miss) WR prospect a top 10 contract. Seems like a pretty damned easy decision to me.

He isn't the same quality prospect as Jones, you should know better than to make ridiculous claims and drafting a NT in the 20's doesn't guarantee you a whole lot. There is a far greater chance that both of them will be flops than the chances of Jones flopping. Both have huge character concerns and aren't the type of character people you usually build a franchise around.
How much help is next year's #27 or higher pick going to help Cleveland move up significantly, of course after a long history of rotten drafting and trades, they could get the #1 pick overall without any help.

This would have been a fair trade:

#6 =1600

In return:
#27
#59
#124

Julio Jones could very well be a star in this league and make the trade worthwhile to Atlanta. On the other hand, he could be the next highly touted "can't miss" wide receiver who ends up nothing more than a volume possession receiver who works the underneath stuff because he's too slow in and out of his breaks to get separation at the NFL level and can't track the ball in the air. If those aren't huge flaws for a WR, I don't know what is.

The fact remains that Julio was a top 10 talent, drafted by a GM with a solid history as a drafter, who worked out with a foot injury considered worse than Crabtree's, otherwise he might have gone before Green in the top 5.
Your just praying he doesn't workout just like Cleveland fans are still praying that Sanchez, in his 3rd year doesn't become the franchise QB we are probably still looking to find 3 or 4 years later.

To each his own, though. NFL Network said he'd be good, so it must be true.

Your right, to each his own, of course, 20 GM's passed on Taylor and I lost count on how many GM's passed on our WR but what do they know???

fear the elf
06-01-2011, 12:22 PM
Your right, to each his own, of course, 20 GM's passed on Taylor and I lost count on how many GM's passed on our WR but what do they know???

You know the draft is a balancing act of need, talent, and value. You're grossly oversimplifying the situation.

Bosanac01
06-01-2011, 12:33 PM
Still talking about this? Yes Falcons gave too much, but if Julio sees success, the organization and we as fans can be satisfied by the price.

Halsey
06-01-2011, 10:50 PM
I am so happy Michael Jenkins is not one of the Falcons starting WRs anymore. Just upgrading over Jenkins is reason to be optimistic. Matt Ryan has two potentially premier targets to work with.

FUNBUNCHER
06-01-2011, 11:44 PM
The question I have is what makes Jones such a better option than a Vincent Jackson if their essentially committing to the win now mentality? Vincent Jackson costs less, is a proven star, top 10 receiver in the league when he plays and is ready to go right now. why would they spend 2 1sts, a 2nd and 2 4th when they could have given 2 2nds at the most for VJ the day that the lockout was postponed?

VJ is a functional alcoholic and one more strike from being suspended for the year by the NFL.

Given the choice, it's usually better for a franchise in the long run to draft their own talent instead of signing them as FAs.

Brown Leader
06-02-2011, 08:07 AM
Trade Value Chart analysis of the trade:

#6 pick = 1600

#27th pick = 680
#59th pick = 310
#124th pick = 48

You had to factor in that a 2012 pick drops a round when traded for a 2011 pick.

No you don't.

1st round pick next year = 310
4th round pick next year = 29.4

Grand Total paid for the #6 pick = 1477.4

(optimistically-for ATL..) about 600 so around 1760 or more.

Cleveland then had to give up their own 3rd #77, to get Taylor = 205 points, so in effect, Cleveland got only 1272.4 points for the trade if you factor in the Taylor trade.

Cmon No. What they do after the actual trade shouldn't change it's value.

These are the facts not suppositions and if I'm the GM giving up the #6 pick, to move back to #27, I would want a bonus for going back that far, say an extra 100 points = 1700. The FACT Cleveland only got 1477.4 for the trade makes the trade stink for them and to further worsen the trade, Cleveland had to expend a further 205 points to get a decent return in round 1.
IMO, Dimitroff took Cleveland to the cleaners in this trade, and other GM's are wondering how they missed out. They are all walking around trying to figure out why Cleveland made this trade for so little value.
Worse yet, because of the hesitation by Baltimore, Cleveland ended up with the 26th pick instead of the 27th pick costing them another 20 points.
You can argue all you want about how good a prospect Jones is but he was going in the top 10 even with an injury considered worse than Crabtree's, and has a real shot to be a huge star at the next level. IMO, he will easily replace White as their #1 option.

I see no way Cleveland got value for the #6 pick and the trade could even look worse if Atlanta finishes with a higher pick than #27 next year.
I've seen a lot of trades over my 55 years of following the NFL closely and this will go down as one of the worst for Cleveland.

I see absolutely no way this trade made any sense on Cleveland's part.

Ok, getting a little comical. Julio ought to be the Falcons new #1 in a couple barring injury issues but even if he's the best WR in the league in a few I still might say pass on him now. The value of taking a WR especially high is just not there unless your a team with little weaknesses and even then it's not necessarily a good thing. If you were clamoring about the Browns passing Fairley or another big value position I could understand maby a little better.

Not to hi-jack the OP's thread, but these scenarios you've mentioned have nothing to do with one another, nor the Falcons trade. No one player other than a QB can change a team's fortune on Sundays, as a whole. Crabtree, Dez, Nicks, nor Britt were reaches. They were needs(except maybe for Dallas), which those teams drafted for accordingly. Crabtree fell to the Niners and was regarded as huge value at the time. Nicks may have been a mild reach to some but I thought he had first round talent. Britt was decent value. I don't see the connection, as none of them were thought to be the missing piece to anything to special. Just upgrades at positions of need. Now those free agent signings might help your argument to some degree.

More true than false but definitely debatable.

Didn't mean to say Dez, Nicks or Britt were reaches ( but Crab imo certainly was), point is, even when a first round WR is successful it usually has little impact on the team record-unless they're a phenom.

These are my thoughts.

IMO it's pretty parallel to the Isac Bruce/ Torry Holt situation. Bruce was the first pick in the second round and only going on 27 when Holt was selected in the first round in 1996. Holt was a similar receiver to Bruce and selected with the sixth pick in the draft. Their dominance overlapped for a few years and once Bruce began to decline Holt continued to be in his prime.

Completely agree. Jones should be a solid Dimitroff pick and become the Falcons eventual #1 but is that enough? I see this trade made with SB in mind.

FTRWRTR
06-02-2011, 02:52 PM
point is, even when a first round WR is successful it usually has little impact on the team record-unless they're a phenom.Well at 6'3" 220 and running a sub 4.4/40 on a broken foot, IMO it's very possible Jones is a phenom.

Plus your argument is kind of faulty considering that teams that draft a wr in the first tend to be crappy, not coming off a 13 - 3 season. JJ doesn't have to be the savior all he has to do is come in and affect things, give ryan an additional weapon, help take coverage off of roddy white, etc

Monomach
06-08-2011, 01:39 PM
#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL.

This is definitely one of the top ten stupidest things ever said on this site.

I mean, holy crap is that dumb.

onejayhawk
06-08-2011, 06:19 PM
Trade Value Chart analysis of the trade:
Grand Total paid for the #6 pick = 1477.4

These are the facts not suppositions and if I'm the GM giving up the #6 pick, to move back to #27, I would want a bonus for going back that far, say an extra 100 points = 1700. The FACT Cleveland only got 1477.4 for the trade makes the trade stink for them and to further worsen the trade, Cleveland had to expend a further 205 points to get a decent return in round 1.

IMO, Dimitroff took Cleveland to the cleaners in this trade, and other GM's are wondering how they missed out. They are all walking around trying to figure out why Cleveland made this trade for so little value. I see no way Cleveland got value for the #6 pick and the trade could even look worse if Atlanta finishes with a higher pick than #27 next year.

I've seen a lot of trades over my 55 years of following the NFL closely and this will go down as one of the worst for Cleveland.

For a total of 1662 points and even then Cleveland still lost 225 points in trades. I see absolutely no way this trade made any sense on Cleveland's part.

It is easy to see. Phil Taylor was the guy they wanted out of this whole draft class. You can argue value by the chart, and I will grant that Cleveland got the short end in both cases. However, the cumulative difference is a mid 3rd round pick, which is not out of line if PT is their guy.

As to whether Phil Taylor deserves the pick, I can think of no reason to doubt it. While the Browns have a similar player in Rubin, there is no reason not to play them together. The Ravens of 10 years ago ran a double NT 4-3 to great effect, including a SB Championship. Breaking down the 1st round, the Chiefs were the first team, out of the top 10, seriously in the market for a NT. Like the Cowboys taking a Tyron Smith at #9, the logic of Taylor lasting to the Chiefs, and them grabbing him, was there.

Again, going back to Baltimore circa 2000, the DEs can be a bit undersized, as long as they are very active. They need to provide both pass rush and close of the edges in the running game. Hence someone like Sheard, who is technically sound, but smallish. So the two picks hang together well, which leads me to believe in a design at work. Of course you also need a great MLB, but that is not an area the Browns are considered short.

So, the Browns get their guy, and a WR, plus a 1st round pick in 2012. The other picks about wash out the 3rd they gave up. If Taylor is that good, and he might be, this deal makes perfect sense. Put it another way, if the Browns figure Taylor was valued at about pick #15, but would slide to #21, the deal makes perfect sense.

J

Bosanac01
06-08-2011, 07:45 PM
Well at 6'3" 220 and running a sub 4.4/40 on a broken foot, IMO it's very possible Jones is a phenom.

Plus your argument is kind of faulty considering that teams that draft a wr in the first tend to be crappy, not coming off a 13 - 3 season. JJ doesn't have to be the savior all he has to do is come in and affect things, give ryan an additional weapon, help take coverage off of roddy white, etc

Pretty much this. Good players have a better chance to fulfill their potential on a good team. Julio Jones will be getting a good share of balls thrown his way but he won't be double teamed and defended by the #1 CB. He's not asked to come in and put up record numbers right away, he has a chance to learn and steadily grow.

gpngc
06-08-2011, 11:36 PM
This is definitely one of the top ten stupidest things ever said on this site.

I mean, holy crap is that dumb.

What defense stops that offense, with Rodgers playing the way he did, in the Georgia dome that night? None.

FUNBUNCHER
06-09-2011, 09:26 AM
What defense stops that offense, with Rodgers playing the way he did, in the Georgia dome that night? None.


Even a Steelers fan would say the defense they fielded last season wasn't vintage for the current (last 5-10 years) Pittsburgh crew.

There have been SB teams with better defenses than the Steelers last season, point blank.

If the 2007-2008 NY Giants could hold arguably the greatest scoring offense in modern NFL history to 14 points, I have no doubt there are several SB defenses who would have hit Rodgers in his mouth and disrupted the timing on their passing game, along with fielding enough secondary talent to lockdown his WRs.

GB was great last year in the playoffs and have the Lombardi to prove it, but to suggest NO SB TEAM had the defense to slow that attack down is a ridiculous statement, IMO.

Halsey
06-09-2011, 12:47 PM
Teams winning Super Bowls in recent years have been able to score in bunches. Scoring more points helps a team's defense and the Falcons still have free agency to add a defensive playmaker.

Iamcanadian
06-09-2011, 01:31 PM
and 28 teams passed on joe montana, some more than once. fallacious argument is fallacious.

Again, people mistake what players become with how they rated as prospects. Nobody can tell how a prospect will develop or how much effort he will put in to be great. 28 teams passed on Montana because as a prospect, he had weaknesses and 20 teams passed on Taylor because he has weaknesses.
It is your argument that is fallacious. Teams pass on prospects because of what they see at that moment. What players become is a completely different question?

Monomach
06-09-2011, 03:09 PM
What defense stops that offense, with Rodgers playing the way he did, in the Georgia dome that night? None.

Someone's trolling...

The 2010 Packers were not the best offense in history or anything like that. They weren't even the best offense in the NFL this season, let alone all-time. They scored fewer points than Jon Kitna's powerhouse Cowboys. In fact, they were tenth.

When you look at the best defenses ever, the thought of this is just ridiculous. There's been a team that won its three playoff games by a combined score of 91-10, with back-to-back shutouts. There was once a championship game won 73-0.

This Packers offense did not steamroll its opponents. It wasn't dominant.

gpngc
06-17-2011, 10:05 PM
Someone's trolling...

The 2010 Packers were not the best offense in history or anything like that. They weren't even the best offense in the NFL this season, let alone all-time. They scored fewer points than Jon Kitna's powerhouse Cowboys. In fact, they were tenth.

When you look at the best defenses ever, the thought of this is just ridiculous. There's been a team that won its three playoff games by a combined score of 91-10, with back-to-back shutouts. There was once a championship game won 73-0.

This Packers offense did not steamroll its opponents. It wasn't dominant.

Re-read what I wrote. ON THAT NIGHT - no defense stops the Packers. If you think that's ridiculous you didn't watch that game.

ellsy82
06-17-2011, 10:17 PM
Re-read what I wrote. ON THAT NIGHT - no defense stops the Packers. If you think that's ridiculous you didn't watch that game.

Well, injuries aside on both teams, that night Rodgers was firing on all cylinders. His wide receivers were the ones that kept dropping clutch passes. With the three Steeler turnovers...if those receivers had caught the ball more consistently, it would've been a blowout. And this is coming from a Steeler fan.

ellsy82
06-17-2011, 10:21 PM
Even a Steelers fan would say the defense they fielded last season wasn't vintage for the current (last 5-10 years) Pittsburgh crew.

There have been SB teams with better defenses than the Steelers last season, point blank.

If the 2007-2008 NY Giants could hold arguably the greatest scoring offense in modern NFL history to 14 points, I have no doubt there are several SB defenses who would have hit Rodgers in his mouth and disrupted the timing on their passing game, along with fielding enough secondary talent to lockdown his WRs.

GB was great last year in the playoffs and have the Lombardi to prove it, but to suggest NO SB TEAM had the defense to slow that attack down is a ridiculous statement, IMO.

True...the Giants knew how to beat Brady, and they did so to perfection. The Steelers' defense relies to heavily on stopping the run, forcing pressure on a QB and creating turnovers. Problem is, when you have guys like Rodgers, Brady, Manning, and Brees, they tend to get rid of the ball before the pressure comes, negating the pass-rush, lessening the turnovers, and the Steelers just haven't been successful against the thread because of it.

The Giants collapsed the pocket and brought speed rushers from all over the field. Brady never knew where the pressure was coming from, but he KNEW it was coming. That was a brilliant defensive plan that night.

OGDraft
06-19-2011, 08:56 PM
A lot of Falcons homers in this thread. I'm a Falcons fans but don't get it twisted that was a bad trade on our part. We gave up too much and the only way it is justified is if we win a Superbowl in the next few years and Julio plays a big part in our championship run.

There are so many illogical arguments for why the trade was good for the Falcons. My favorite is "well we are so good those draft picks would be wasted anyways on players that won't make an impact" at the same time they say Dimitroff is an outstanding GM who will pick up starters and impact players in the middle rounds. So which is it? By saying those picks are worthless they are saying Dimitroff won't make any good picks.

Talk about Jones' potential all you want, but it is just that, POTENTIAL. I'm a big fan of the guy and wrote a very positive scouting report on him last year but we could all be wrong. He could easily bust, especially since he already has some concentration issues. What if he never fixes that? It's a big risk. That's why I think it's a bad move to give up so much for an unproven player. Would I do that same trade for Fitzgerald? Probably yes because I at least know I'm getting a great PROVEN receiver who can step in and start right away. Julio may take 3 years to finally evolve into the players the Falcons wanted, much like Roddy White.

The ones in favor of this trade are making a lot of assumptions. They are assuming he can start from Day 1 and produce like a vet, that he can make our offense a lot better, that he can make us take that next step and win in the playoffs etc. None of that is certain.

Halsey
06-19-2011, 09:42 PM
A lot of Falcons homers in this thread. I'm a Falcons fans but don't get it twisted that was a bad trade on our part. We gave up too much and the only way it is justified is if we win a Superbowl in the next few years and Julio plays a big part in our championship run.

There are so many illogical arguments for why the trade was good for the Falcons. My favorite is "well we are so good those draft picks would be wasted anyways on players that won't make an impact" at the same time they say Dimitroff is an outstanding GM who will pick up starters and impact players in the middle rounds. So which is it? By saying those picks are worthless they are saying Dimitroff won't make any good picks.

Talk about Jones' potential all you want, but it is just that, POTENTIAL. I'm a big fan of the guy and wrote a very positive scouting report on him last year but we could all be wrong. He could easily bust, especially since he already has some concentration issues. What if he never fixes that? It's a big risk. That's why I think it's a bad move to give up so much for an unproven player. Would I do that same trade for Fitzgerald? Probably yes because I at least know I'm getting a great PROVEN receiver who can step in and start right away. Julio may take 3 years to finally evolve into the players the Falcons wanted, much like Roddy White.

The ones in favor of this trade are making a lot of assumptions. They are assuming he can start from Day 1 and produce like a vet, that he can make our offense a lot better, that he can make us take that next step and win in the playoffs etc. None of that is certain.

So basically you agree with what everyone else says, but we're homers and you're not: If Julio becomes a star and helps Atlanta win a Super Bowl it's a good trade. If he doesn't become a star and doesn't help Atlanta win a Super Bowl. it was a bad trade.

All these arguments come back to the same conclusion: Nobody is going to know if it was a good trade until we see how Julio plays in the NFL and how much he helps the Falcons.

DeepThreat
06-19-2011, 09:50 PM
I honestly hated the trade for Atlanta. There isn't a wide receiver in the NFL I would consider giving up two first round picks for. And Julio isn't even going to be the Falcons' number one guy. They could have had Gabe Carimi, Greg Little and a first round pick instead. I think that is a much better haul than just Julio.

prock
06-19-2011, 10:45 PM
So basically you agree with what everyone else says, but we're homers and you're not: If Julio becomes a star and helps Atlanta win a Super Bowl it's a good trade. If he doesn't become a star and doesn't help Atlanta win a Super Bowl. it was a bad trade.

All these arguments come back to the same conclusion: Nobody is going to know if it was a good trade until we see how Julio plays in the NFL and how much he helps the Falcons.

It would be pretty hard for Julio to have a bigger impact than 5 players could. Julio better be a top 5 receiver in order for this trade to not completely suck for them. I have a very, very hard time believing Julio Jones is gonna be 4 players better than a receiver they could have taken in the 20s, or even the second round.

ArkyRamsFan
06-19-2011, 11:12 PM
I honestly hated the trade for Atlanta. There isn't a wide receiver in the NFL I would consider giving up two first round picks for. And Julio isn't even going to be the Falcons' number one guy. They could have had Gabe Carimi, Greg Little and a first round pick instead. I think that is a much better haul than just Julio.

THIS is spot on!!

Halsey
06-19-2011, 11:24 PM
The NFL is not all about quantity. If having more picks automatically makes a team better, why have the Browns remained bad the last couple of years, while the Jets made the AFCCG two years in a row. The Falcons entered the Draft with 9 picks. They didn't need them all. Julio Jones doesn't need to live up to some nonsensical fan math about being 4 players better or whatever. He needs to be a star WR who provides Ryan with another weapon and takes pressure off White.

prock
06-20-2011, 01:11 AM
Which wasn't worth all that they traded, since they could have got similar short term production with in all likelihood, as well have gotten improvements in other areas rather than wasting all that on a receiver.

LonghornsLegend
06-20-2011, 01:12 AM
Put me in the camp who loved the trade. Julio is gonna prove worth it, and his development couldn't have happened in a better place. Close to home, young QB to grow with, and dominant #1 WR to take the pressure off of him as he learns the game instead of playing for a team like Cleveland where he gets all the attention.


I felt Julio would go on to be a top 5 WR for whoever he played for, ATL is a seamless transition. Once he turns into a stud nobody will remember what they gave up for him.

ellsy82
06-20-2011, 02:40 AM
Put me in the camp who loved the trade. Julio is gonna prove worth it, and his development couldn't have happened in a better place. Close to home, young QB to grow with, and dominant #1 WR to take the pressure off of him as he learns the game instead of playing for a team like Cleveland where he gets all the attention.


I felt Julio would go on to be a top 5 WR for whoever he played for, ATL is a seamless transition. Once he turns into a stud nobody will remember what they gave up for him.

Hey...We all thought "what a place to go"...but man, what a price.

Halsey
06-20-2011, 09:41 AM
For everyone who thinks all those picks are so valuable, tell me the last time the Falcons or Browns got an impact player in the 4th round. The vast majority of 4th round picks are average joes and many don't ever see the field in the NFL. Even 2nd round round picks are hit and miss. Especially late 2nds. The Falcons lost out on maybe 2 or 3 impact players by trading for Jones.

Halsey
06-20-2011, 10:52 AM
for everyone who thinks the 6th overall pick is the most valuable pick in draft history.

As usual you rely on exaggeration because you can't argue my point. :D

Halsey
06-20-2011, 10:56 AM
because your 'point' is inane

Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

OGDraft
06-20-2011, 10:58 AM
So basically you agree with what everyone else says, but we're homers and you're not: If Julio becomes a star and helps Atlanta win a Super Bowl it's a good trade. If he doesn't become a star and doesn't help Atlanta win a Super Bowl. it was a bad trade.

All these arguments come back to the same conclusion: Nobody is going to know if it was a good trade until we see how Julio plays in the NFL and how much he helps the Falcons.
No I'm not. I'm saying we gave up too much. You say it's worth it. No rookie is worth that much. I don't know how you could read that and say I agree with all of you saying it was a great trade for the Falcons.

It's going to be funny when Julio has a mediocre rookie season as our #2 receiver and everyone is going to be panicking screaming BUST! and complaining about the trade. The expectations are set so high for him already and people are going to rip him every time he drops a pass or has 1 bad game.

Halsey
06-20-2011, 11:01 AM
I'm not saying the trade is worth it. I'm saying it could potentially be worth it. Trying to come up with a conclusive opinion on the trade is simple minded. Julio Jones might be a star WR for a decade or he might tear his knee up in week two of this season and never be the same again. Time will determine if the trade was worth it, not opinions on message boards.

OGDraft
06-20-2011, 11:10 AM
I'm not saying the trade is worth it. I'm saying it could potentially be worth it. Trying to come up with a conclusive opinion on the trade is simple minded. Julio Jones might be a star WR for a decade or he might tear his knee up in week two of this season and never be the same again. Time will determine if the trade was worth it, not opinions on message boards.
Obviously true, but it's the off-season we gotta debate something lol. I can assume he busts or becomes Andre Johnson but that's useless. I'm looking it at simply like "was that WR prospect worth that much?".

ArkyRamsFan
06-20-2011, 12:02 PM
Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

Depends upon what you consider an "impact" player to be. 4th rounders are used for players who can shore up a teams depth and push for a starting job in the near future.

Also, the picks themselves make good bargaining chips if a trade up is desired.

Look, there are only 7 rounds in the draft and the 4th is right in the middle of it. I think that NFL GMs have a much different attitude than you do about the value of maximizing each pick that they have.

They are simply too valuable to waste.

Especially on a guy who plays a position that could be easily filled elsewhere in the draft.

LonghornsLegend
06-20-2011, 12:22 PM
I actually think the Rams are going to regret not trading up to get him at which would be a cheaper cost, that's how good I think Julio is going to be. It's lofty expectations with the price tag but he's gonna prove alot of people wrong who had AJ Green rated higher. I don't have alot of proof to back that up with, just that I'm fine with the risk involved knowing what type of player I think he'll be.


Should be a fun thread to bump after a few years.

ATLDirtyBirds
06-20-2011, 01:50 PM
Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

It's not so much that 4th rounders are nothing to sleep over, it's the fact that Dimitroff has confidence in some of the other rounds 3-7 picks he's made over the past couple of seasons. We'll see how that works out.

I actually think the Rams are going to regret not trading up to get him at which would be a cheaper cost, that's how good I think Julio is going to be. It's lofty expectations with the price tag but he's gonna prove alot of people wrong who had AJ Green rated higher. I don't have alot of proof to back that up with, just that I'm fine with the risk involved knowing what type of player I think he'll be.


Should be a fun thread to bump after a few years.

I was listening to a Billy Devaney (Rams GM) a few weeks back. Basically said he loved everything about Julio, and had him as the top player in the class. If he fell down a little more they were going to move up (most likely with Dallas) and snag him.

TitanHope
06-20-2011, 03:28 PM
Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

I would. The Titans had 6 starters last year who were 4th RD picks alone - RT David Stewart, LG Leroy Harris, DE William Hayes, MLB Stephen Tulloch, SLB Gerald McRath, and rookie CB Alterraun Verner.

You make that 4th-UDFA players, and that number grows. The draft isn't meant for immediate impact. It's to build for the future and to create depth for longevity. There are some guys who can start from day one, but that's not usually the norm. If you want immediate impact, you get it through FA with veterans that aren't fresh out of college.

Look at some Falcons players taken from the 4th-UDFA: FB Ovie Mughelli (FA signing), DE Lawrence Sidbury Jr., LB Stephen Nicholas, RB Jason Snelling, RB Michael Turner (FA signing), G Harvey Dahl, C Todd McClure, T Tyson Clabo, DE Kroy Biermann, and CB Brent Grimes.

There are some key players here. Some guys need development. Sidbury isn't an impact guy now, but he's a possible building block for the future. Grimes didn't become as good as he is overnight. Plus, depth is key. Green Bay just won the Super Bowl after converting half the training facility into an infirmary. A team disregarding these players because they don't provide "immediate impact" is mortgaging the future for the present, and in a league where turnover happens often and a good team one year may be poor the next, I'm not sure it's wise to take that approach - especially when it's for an unknown commodity.

AntoinCD
06-20-2011, 05:30 PM
Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

Some teams dont even get impact players in the first round. Generally the better teams dont have enough spaces to fill in their starting lineup to be getting impact players throughout the draft. However they are able to improve their depth situation. Sure, for example, the OG prospect drafted in the 4th round may not be the sexy choice and may never crack the starting lineup but he will be an integral member of the team who doesnt miss a beat if called upon to cover an injury.

Last year the Green Bay Packers were ravaged by injuries but won the Superbowl due to amazing depth.

The New England Patriots are probably the best team at drafting late round players and teaching them up so that they can learn the system and fill in when needed. Both starting OGs for them lost significant time last year yet the line still protected Brady well and paved the way for a 1000yard back.

If you think the Falcons are going to be successful by having 22 impact players and nothing else then you're kidding yourself. Teams have a 53 man roster for a reason and the reserve spots are often some of the most important

TitanHope
06-20-2011, 05:36 PM
Halsey has never been in a forum mock. Those 4th RD'ers are like catnip for draftniks.

OGDraft
06-20-2011, 06:09 PM
Agreed with the previous 4 posts. Great posts with great points.

Halsey
06-20-2011, 08:14 PM
Especially on a guy who plays a position that could be easily filled elsewhere in the draft.

Any position can be filled at any point in the Draft. This is garbage logic. There's no rule against drafting any position in any round.

Just because people on message boards call it Jones a wasted pick doesn't make it true. Again, whether or not Jones was a waste will be determined in time. Not by simple minded proclamations on a message board.

Halsey
06-20-2011, 08:19 PM
I would. The Titans had 6 starters last year who were 4th RD picks alone - RT David Stewart, LG Leroy Harris, DE William Hayes, MLB Stephen Tulloch, SLB Gerald McRath, and rookie CB Alterraun Verner.



And the Titans sucked. Most of those guys are average joes.

Using free agents to support your argument just shows that free agency can be used to address needs that the Draft doesn't.

Halsey
06-20-2011, 08:26 PM
It's obvious that some of you love draft picks so much that you value quantity and have no consideration for quality. If quantity was all that mattered, the team with the most picks would always get the best return on their Draft. The reality is teams with lots of picks usually end up cutting many of the picked players, because there's not enough room for them all.

gpngc
06-20-2011, 08:26 PM
I would. The Titans had 6 starters last year who were 4th RD picks alone - RT David Stewart, LG Leroy Harris, DE William Hayes, MLB Stephen Tulloch, SLB Gerald McRath, and rookie CB Alterraun Verner.

You make that 4th-UDFA players, and that number grows. The draft isn't meant for immediate impact. It's to build for the future and to create depth for longevity. There are some guys who can start from day one, but that's not usually the norm. If you want immediate impact, you get it through FA with veterans that aren't fresh out of college.

Look at some Falcons players taken from the 4th-UDFA: FB Ovie Mughelli (FA signing), DE Lawrence Sidbury Jr., LB Stephen Nicholas, RB Jason Snelling, RB Michael Turner (FA signing), G Harvey Dahl, C Todd McClure, T Tyson Clabo, DE Kroy Biermann, and CB Brent Grimes.

There are some key players here. Some guys need development. Sidbury isn't an impact guy now, but he's a possible building block for the future. Grimes didn't become as good as he is overnight. Plus, depth is key. Green Bay just won the Super Bowl after converting half the training facility into an infirmary. A team disregarding these players because they don't provide "immediate impact" is mortgaging the future for the present, and in a league where turnover happens often and a good team one year may be poor the next, I'm not sure it's wise to take that approach - especially when it's for an unknown commodity.

And look how many 4th-UDFA are out of the league... you just named all the good ones...

Fourth round success rate from 2003-2006

2003: TEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those ten players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

2004: SEVEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those seven players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

2005: ELEVEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. About FIVE of those eleven players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick (tough: Kerry Rhodes, Orton, MB3, Sproles).

2006: THIRTEEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those thirteen players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

Average of 35 picks in the fourth round each year.

35 x 4 = 140

41 out of 140 players (29.3 %) of 4th round picks from 2003-2006 positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them.

About 17 of 140 players (12%) of 4th round picks from 2003-2006 outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

*My stats may be a little off as I did this fairly quickly. Go ahead and add % points if you wish, my point still stands because you'll never get near 50%. The risk/reward dynamic in the fourth round, as I've shown with the stats, makes these picks less valuable than we think (and WANT). Possible a fourth-rounder works out? Yes. Probable. No.

It is logical to assume that trading away a fourth-round pick is trading away a 12% chance of getting a good player and about a 30% chance of getting a contributor.

A chance at Julio Jones-caliber player should not be missed because of well less than a 50/50 shot at finding Seneca Wallace in the fourth round (yes I counted him as a positive contributor).

I'm on your side, Halsey. Draftniks overrate draft picks on a draft site. It makes sense.

Halsey
06-20-2011, 08:32 PM
.
Last year the Green Bay Packers were ravaged by injuries but won the Superbowl due to amazing depth.


Oh, so it was all about depth? It had nothing to do with the star players leading the team? Riiiiight...

AntoinCD
06-20-2011, 09:03 PM
Oh, so it was all about depth? It had nothing to do with the star players leading the team? Riiiiight...

Exactly, because my post specifically said "due to amazing depth and nothing to do with star players leading the team".

Of course Rodgers, Matthews, Woodson, Raji, Jennings all were major factors in winning the Superbowl but did Sam Shields not play a big part? Desmond Bishop? James Starks? No, none of them done anything to help the team, right???

I actually think if the Packers had have simply played the superbowl with only first or second rounders on their team they still would have won...you know because of the star players and all.

OGDraft
06-20-2011, 09:11 PM
And the Titans sucked. Most of those guys are average joes.

Using free agents to support your argument just shows that free agency can be used to address needs that the Draft doesn't.

Seeing as how he is a Titans fan he is probably gonna disagree hard with you calling those guys "average joes" because they're not. All of those guys contributed and Tulloch, McRath, Stewart and Verner all had good seasons. I'm not sure about the other guys. The Titans certainly didn't suck because of those players. They sucked because they didn't have a QB.

Halsey
06-20-2011, 09:26 PM
I'm not overrating anything. I'm just saying the Falcons didn't make a mistake simply because they gave up 6 picks for 1. If having lots of picks was the end all, be all, the Browns would have been a strong organization in recent years. They picked 24 total players in the 1999 and 2000 Draft. In 2006 they picked 10 players. The 2006 Draft should have been a big part of their team in 2010, yet they where were they. It's not all about having lots of players. Every team can and does fill its roster. It's also about the quality of the roster.

gpngc
06-20-2011, 09:31 PM
no, i'm pretty sure he named all the *falcons* players. you know, like he said.



:rolleyes:



and homers overrate their own players/team moves. it makes sense.

i guess we could turn it around and look at the overall 'success' rate of the #6 pick, and pretend that's meaningful in context, too. julio jones *is* pretty comparable to vernon gholston, after all. i mean, 'after all' if you're going to keep following irrelevant tangents to try to substantiate a severely flawed argument.

Yes. My point is for him to name all of those successful FALCONS 4th-UDFA and then ALSO NAME the unsuccessful FALCONS 4th-UDFA. I'd bet the % looks a lot worse than him just highlighting the few that are good...

Julio Jones is absolutely comparable to Vernon Gholston. Both were highly touted prospects coming out. Jones could bust just like Gholston. But I'm not talking about the value of the 6th overall pick or even Julio Jones as a prospect (fact is, we don't know how he'll perform). That's a different debate. My main point is that a fourth-round pick is simply NOT AS VALUABLE as we think as draftniks and should ABSOLUTELY not be used as proof that the Falcons gave up too much AT THIS POINT (before we know what Julio does as a pro).

The Falcons are being trashed in part because of a fourth round pick. I showed the stats of fourth-round picks having success (which is subjective - that's a flaw you can point to - but my point still stands with one disagreement going your way in every draft) to highlight that the Falcons lost an unknown player who based on my mini-study would have had a 30% chance to have a positive impact for 2 years and a 12% chance to be a very positive contributor to the franchise.

You can call my tangent irrelevant - that's fine. But the sticking point for people has been a fourth-round pick. What I'm trying to prove is that losing a fourth-round pick is not a big deal. Which I think I did pretty convincingly. You did not explain why my argument, a fourth-round pick is not as important as most think, is SEVERELY flawed. Small sample size? Not a bad point. I really don't care that much to go deeper. Subjective? Not a terrible point but you're still never going to get to even 40% (and again, Seneca Wallace's are in that category).

PoopSandwich
06-20-2011, 10:50 PM
i remember not too long ago the Browns traded down in the Mark Sanchez situation and got a good not great player in Alex Mack. They may have done the same thing here. Like they couldn't use Julio Jones?

as a general note Julio was way underrated, all draft season. He ran a 4.3 on a broken foot. He made a ton of huge plays at Bama and he run blocks like a beast. For a playoff team like the falcons, extra draft picks aren't gonna make the roster, better off getting a real blue chipper.

Alex Mack is one of the top 10 centers in the league and like what 23 years old?

Pretty sure I would consider him a great player.

Halsey
06-20-2011, 11:40 PM
wth are you talking about?

I'm talking about the fact that they picked a total of 24 players in the 1999 and 2000 Drafts. What do you not understand about that?

AntoinCD
06-20-2011, 11:48 PM
I'm talking about the fact that they picked a total of 24 players in the 1999 and 2000 Drafts. What do you not understand about that?

1999: Patrick Kerney, Reggie Kelly, Jeff Paulk, Johndale Carty, Eugene Barker, Eric Thigpen, Todd McClure, Rondel Menendez

2000: Travis Claridge, Mark Simoneau, Michael Thompson, Anthony Midget, Marend Philyaw, Derrick Vaughan

That's 14. Not 24.

Halsey
06-20-2011, 11:52 PM
"If having lots of picks was the end all, be all, the Browns would have been a strong organization in recent years. They picked 24 total players in the 1999 and 2000 Draft'"

AntoinCD
06-20-2011, 11:53 PM
"If having lots of picks was the end all, be all, the Browns would have been a strong organization in recent years. They picked 24 total players in the 1999 and 2000 Draft'"

Apologies, didnt read the whole thing

TitanHope
06-20-2011, 11:55 PM
Draft picks are overrated when it comes to known players. You're trading an unknown for a known. In this case, you're not trading for a known quantity. You're making a costly trade in order to gamble on an unknown player. Although, I do find the humor in the "You guys are making too big of a deal out of draft picks. They're overrated!" when the reward for trading these picks is, wait for it, another overrated draft pick.

Why do the Browns suck? Probably because they haven't had a competant QB for the past decade, save for a fluke year by Derek Anderson. The FO has also been overhauled and they've made yet another coaching change this year. I'd say no QB and general FO incompetance would be the reason. Afterall, they've had premuim picks year after year because of their lack of success, so that "quality" hasn't helped either.

And the Titans sucked. Most of those guys are average joes.

Your argument was that we shouldn't make an issue about 4th RD picks, since they aren't impact players. I listed 6 starters from the Titans, one of which was a rookie, and some notable 4th RD and later players from the Falcons. This directly contradicts your statement.

You're slotted by default a single 4th RD pick every year. How is it not significant for a team to have 6 starters picked from that round?

And the Titans sucked as a team. The defense was ranked 15th in the NFL and the offense was 17th. They started 5-2, lost VY, and finished 1-9.

Using free agents to support your argument just shows that free agency can be used to address needs that the Draft doesn't.

Exactly. If you need immediate impact, you get it through FA. But it happened that they were 4th RD picks or later, so I thought they were relevant seeing as how you were diminishing the value of players in the 4th RD. You're absolutely right on this, and I've demonstrably agreed with you.

And look how many 4th-UDFA are out of the league... you just named all the good ones...

Halsey said, and I quote, "For everyone who thinks all those picks are so valuable, tell me the last time the Falcons or Browns got an impact player in the 4th round." I did so, and even included players from even less valuable picks.

I didn't hand pick all the good ones. Halsey made a silly question and I answered it. The argument had nothing to do with percentages, but if in your language "when was the last time" actually means "how often," then you're definitely right and not totally missing the concept. Wanna accuse someone of hand picking data? Ask Halsey why he didn't touch the 1st RD yet accused 2nd RD'ers and beyond of being risks.

And I'm not even going to get into the sheer stupidity of using a success/failure ratio when you're looking at a situation where there's a set number of roster spots available, incumbent players to compete against, other rookie players to compete against, having much higher investments in players that make them untouchable, as well as factors such as injuries, and even trying to create an objective empirical argument from a league-wide scale that has any hope for exactness when discussing a singular team. As if Al Davis's incompetance 3 years ago has any ******* bearing whatsoever on Thomas Dimitroff's in 2011, let alone the hypocrisy of assuming he knows what the hell he's doing in the 1st RD/trade but is thrown in with all the other dumbass GM's over the past 5 years when the 4th RD comes up. Not to mention, not providing any hope of context considering you don't bring up any of the odds of the 3 RD's before and the 3 RD's afterward this stated round that is in the center of the entire process. And then you ask me (in an unquoted post) to NAME the successful and unsuccessful players, when in the quote following this, you give us NO NAMES (correction: 4 names and randomly Seneca Wallace) and just numbers, forcing us to assume you're not biased in your reasoning for your subjective definition of success, all when you were the one to bring up percentages to begin with because your reading comprehension failed you. Do you think I'm ********, or do you just like making Njx and I wake up the other occupants in our homes with our booming laughter?

Fourth round success rate from 2003-2006

2003: TEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those ten players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

2004: SEVEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those seven players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

2005: ELEVEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. About FIVE of those eleven players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick (tough: Kerry Rhodes, Orton, MB3, Sproles).

2006: THIRTEEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those thirteen players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

Average of 35 picks in the fourth round each year.

35 x 4 = 140

41 out of 140 players (29.3 %) of 4th round picks from 2003-2006 positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them.

About 17 of 140 players (12%) of 4th round picks from 2003-2006 outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

*My stats may be a little off as I did this fairly quickly. Go ahead and add % points if you wish, my point still stands because you'll never get near 50%. The risk/reward dynamic in the fourth round, as I've shown with the stats, makes these picks less valuable than we think (and WANT). Possible a fourth-rounder works out? Yes. Probable. No.

It is logical to assume that trading away a fourth-round pick is trading away a 12% chance of getting a good player and about a 30% chance of getting a contributor.

First off, kudos for doing the legwork. Probably took you some time.

Redundant after reading post 2613584:
But did you do the 1st RD as well? Or the 2nd, or 3rd, or 5th? I'm curious to see how much of a difference there is between them, but logically, the earlier the pick, the better the chance to fall under these guidelines. There's more talent and a higher investment in the player. How did injuries factor in? This seems pretty expansive and without context.

The draft is an inherent risk at every level. Just because there's a risk to fail doesn't mean there's disregardable value, which is Halsey's assertion that I'm arguing against. It's the 4th player that a team can choose, according to the default slotting. The NFL gives you 7 picks a year by default. Why are the last 4 selections irrelevant?

A chance at Julio Jones-caliber player should not be missed because of well less than a 50/50 shot at finding Seneca Wallace in the fourth round (yes I counted him as a positive contributor).

Not my argument, and it was much more than a chance at Seneca Wallace that was given up in return for Jones. I'm not sure who, but it's not me who's saying, "I'd be all for it if they hadn't thrown those two 4th RD'ers in!" I'm the one saying, "No, those 4th RD'ers should be factored into the analysis of the trade, and not disregarded because they're the smallest piece of this whole."

I'm on your side, Halsey. Draftniks overrate draft picks on a draft site. It makes sense.

There's actually value in quantity. Listen to coaches in postdraft pressers. I've heard, "...and we got an additional player," multiple times used to support a trade. It's definitely a factor.



The issue isn't that 4th RD picks are just as important as 1st RD'ers, or even vital. It's that there is absolutely a significant difference in value between [1st RD, 2nd RD, 4th RD, future 1st RD, future 4th RD] and [1st RD, 2nd RD, and future 1st RD]. These aren't flyers you take in the 7th RD. It's the smack-dab middle of the draft. I don't understand how they can be disregarded in the assessment of this trade just because you're not guaranteed a starter from day one. It's pure ignorance, to me.

This argument is entirely circular to begin with. Say draft picks are overrated to defend trading for a draft pick. Rationalize drafting a player makes sense because he's a specialized need in occasional situations and not needed every down, and then talk about other picks not being worth their pick because they didn't contribute enough or weren't impactful. Saying later round picks aren't impact players then defending not taking a DE early because hey, we got ******* Cliff Matthews in the 7th RD. It's been entertaining to watch people willingly bang their heads against a wall repeatedly. I just had to join in for some reason.

I don't really have much of an issue with the trade to begin with, which is funny.

Halsey
06-21-2011, 12:12 AM
meh, this argument is going a whole lot of nowhere. Nobody is going to know anything for sure for a long time and nobody is going to change their current opinion. I just can't wait to see Jones pwn ur noobish opinions. :D

LonghornsLegend
06-21-2011, 12:21 AM
I don't even know why the 4th round pick(s) is the talk of this thread anyway. More importantly it was the future 1st rder they miss out on, as well as the 2nd rder this year. That's 3 pro bowl players your team could very easily draft with decent scouting, as well as them being early picks.


That's where the real debate should be. I don't think there's any doubt to anyone Dimitroff overpaid, but it's silly to assume 4th round picks are worthless. There are always good players in that round every year.

Caddy
06-21-2011, 12:30 AM
Aqib Talib is going to shoot Jones so yeah, the Falcons got ripped off.

AntoinCD
06-21-2011, 12:43 AM
Aqib Talib is going to shoot Jones so yeah, the Falcons got ripped off.

But in fairness if the Falcons had've stayed put then Talib would have shot who they took with the 27th pick, their second round pick, their fourth round pick and next years picks too. In fact Aqib Talib's just gonna shoot everyone, and really...who can blame him?

JoeJoeBrown
06-21-2011, 09:15 AM
But in fairness if the Falcons had've stayed put then Talib would have shot who they took with the 27th pick, their second round pick, their fourth round pick and next years picks too. In fact Aqib Talib's just gonna shoot everyone, and really...who can blame him?

Terrelle Pryor totally agrees.

OGDraft
06-21-2011, 09:26 AM
I don't think there's any doubt to anyone Dimitroff overpaid

You would think so...

prock
06-21-2011, 02:12 PM
I'm on your side, Halsey. Draftniks overrate draft picks on a draft site. It makes sense.

This is never a good thing, you sure you don't wanna reconsider this?


The 4th round picks aren't irrelevant, but they aren't what the big deal is about. They gave up two firsts and a second for a receiver who, while I loved a prospect, has decent bust potential, and more important has yet to play in the NFL. Three players with high starter potential (1st, 1st, 2nd) + two players who should easily be solid depth players (2 4ths) >>>>>>>>> One second receiver. I think it's pretty simple math. I love Julio, don't get me wrong, but that was obscene how much they gave up for him. A lot of people still wouldn't like this trade if they gave all that up for Larry Fitzgerald. They gave up more than the Bears did for Jay Cutler (in case you didn't catch that, franchise QB >>>>>>> second receiver). Any questions??

SativaDominant
06-21-2011, 03:45 PM
This is never a good thing, you sure you don't wanna reconsider this?


The 4th round picks aren't irrelevant, but they aren't what the big deal is about. They gave up two firsts and a second for a receiver who, while I loved a prospect, has decent bust potential, and more important has yet to play in the NFL. Three players with high starter potential (1st, 1st, 2nd) + two players who should easily be solid depth players (2 4ths) >>>>>>>>> One second receiver. I think it's pretty simple math. I love Julio, don't get me wrong, but that was obscene how much they gave up for him. A lot of people still wouldn't like this trade if they gave all that up for Larry Fitzgerald. They gave up more than the Bears did for Jay Cutler (in case you didn't catch that, franchise QB >>>>>>> second receiver). Any questions??

Bingo. They essentially bet the farm on a solid wide receiver prospect from a very poor draft class. Not to mention that receiver was arguably the deepest position in this class outside of defensive line (and, really, the defensive line talent in this class was slightly overstated).

With that said, I'd expect the Falcons' offensive philosophy to change dramatically over the course of the next few seasons. Michael Turner has carried an extremely heavy workload in his two Atlanta seasons and was a non-factor in both of their playoff appearances. Secondly, they play on turf in a dome. Their offensive philosophy has been great for developing a young QB on the fly, but it gives them no advantage in their home stadium. That was fairly obvious in the Packer playoff game - where a team from freezing Green Bay was better suited to playing on the Falcons' field. And thirdly, it's now or never for Matty Ice. He's entering his fourth year, and it's time for the offense to revolve around him. If it doesn't happen now, it's never going to.

onejayhawk
06-21-2011, 04:16 PM
Very poor is an overstatement. Somewhat thin I would accept.

J

ArkyRamsFan
06-21-2011, 04:22 PM
Any position can be filled at any point in the Draft. This is garbage logic. There's no rule against drafting any position in any round.

Hmmm...so you would take, say, a long-snapper with the 6th pick in the first round. You, sir, are the one with the "garbage logic."

If you've been paying attention you would know that certain positions are valued higher (much, much higher in some cases) than others. To paraphrase George Orwell "All positions are equal; some are more equal than others." For Atlanta to pay that kind of price for what is, essentially, a second wideout is obscene.

Also, I am interested to hear what you have to say that if the Falcons would have just stood pat they could have drafted Kyle Rudolph in the first and then Greg Little in the second and still have saved all of their picks for next year.

Doesn't that sound like a much more effective draft haul?

gpngc
06-21-2011, 04:22 PM
This is never a good thing, you sure you don't wanna reconsider this?


The 4th round picks aren't irrelevant, but they aren't what the big deal is about. They gave up two firsts and a second for a receiver who, while I loved a prospect, has decent bust potential, and more important has yet to play in the NFL. Three players with high starter potential (1st, 1st, 2nd) + two players who should easily be solid depth players (2 4ths) >>>>>>>>> One second receiver. I think it's pretty simple math. I love Julio, don't get me wrong, but that was obscene how much they gave up for him. A lot of people still wouldn't like this trade if they gave all that up for Larry Fitzgerald. They gave up more than the Bears did for Jay Cutler (in case you didn't catch that, franchise QB >>>>>>> second receiver). Any questions??

Shoot me in the face^ Well over half of fourth-round picks EASILY phase out of the league quickly. But we aren't using past statistics because it's better to go off a hope and a whim of the less-than-10% chance that the Falcons would have gotten solid players with BOTH 4th-rounders. But we'll dismiss the statistics because they provide a relevant counter-argument about the value of fourth-round picks.

They essentially bet the farm What farm? They bet a few picks - their farm is already thriving.

[I]And I'm not even going to get into the sheer stupidity of using a success/failure ratio when you're looking at a situation[/I

It is SHEER stupidity to look at past drafts to find the percentage of success for guys taken in certain rounds when measuring the value of unknown future picks in that same round? How else would you even come close to determining the value of next year's second round pick? This is a gigantic business and if you think there is no statistical analysis based on past drafts in determining the value of future picks and that it's just a crapshoot then I think you're underestimating the complexity of the process.

And saying "for a #2 receiver...." First of all, that was their biggest weakness. Second of all, a #2 receiver plays way more snaps than whatever DE they would have drafted at 27. Jones will be on the field in every single set besides GL and if for some reason before the 10-yard line the coaching staff subs in Justin Peelle for a 2TE FB 1WR look... I don't think they'll do that very often...

prock
06-21-2011, 04:32 PM
OK, so their draft picks don't matter because you don't trust the Falcons to make good choices? If half of fourth round picks flame out, we will cut down the two good depth players into one. Happy?

And yes it is stupid. Player A drafted in the 4th round two years ago is completely independent from Player B drafted in this year's fourth round. Why would you look at past players taken at a certain position at a certain point to determine whether or not you want to take a player?

Obviously #2 receiver was a need. But was it worth all they gave up? They could have taken a DE at 27, taken someone like Greg Little in rd 2, and gotten another should be starter next year. Is that better than Julio? Yes it is. If you want to argue that one receiver is better than 5 players, have fun.

LonghornsLegend
06-21-2011, 04:40 PM
Bingo. They essentially bet the farm on a solid wide receiver prospect from a very poor draft class. Not to mention that receiver was arguably the deepest position in this class outside of defensive line (and, really, the defensive line talent in this class was slightly overstated).


For one Julio isn't a "solid WR prospect", I don't know why we have to try and downgrade how good he is by calling him a #2 WR, and solid WR prospect because they paid alot. That doesn't make him any less of a prospect.


Also, you do realize that you calling this a "very poor draft class" just makes them giving up multiple picks for 1 of the potentially elite players seem like a better decision? I'm not saying that's what happened, but if it's a poor draft class as you say, the logical thing to do would be to package picks in said class, to move up for a sure thing.



Besides, a draft class being very poor doesn't make any 1 player worse, I don't even know why that had to be mentioned. It has no bearing on how good Julio, or anyone else will be.

SativaDominant
06-21-2011, 05:04 PM
For one Julio isn't a "solid WR prospect", I don't know why we have to try and downgrade how good he is by calling him a #2 WR, and solid WR prospect because they paid alot. That doesn't make him any less of a prospect.


Also, you do realize that you calling this a "very poor draft class" just makes them giving up multiple picks for 1 of the potentially elite players seem like a better decision? I'm not saying that's what happened, but if it's a poor draft class as you say, the logical thing to do would be to package picks in said class, to move up for a sure thing.



Besides, a draft class being very poor doesn't make any 1 player worse, I don't even know why that had to be mentioned. It has no bearing on how good Julio, or anyone else will be.

Moving up in a weak class absolutely makes sense if you're drafting a sure fire prospect at a position of high value. And, again, while this was a weak draft class, wide receiver was arguably the deepest position in the entire draft.

As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.

SativaDominant
06-21-2011, 05:41 PM
Moving up in a weak class absolutely makes sense if you're drafting a sure fire prospect at a position of high value. And, again, while this was a weak draft class, wide receiver was arguably the deepest position in the entire draft.

As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.

Page trap.

LonghornsLegend
06-21-2011, 05:56 PM
Moving up in a weak class absolutely makes sense if you're drafting a sure fire prospect at a position of high value. And, again, while this was a weak draft class, wide receiver was arguably the deepest position in the entire draft.

As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.



That's fine, I won't argue with you your opinion on JJ, you could be absolutely right, but he's still alot more then a 'solid prospect', in which the masses could confirm that. NFL GM's, exec's, whoever. Everyone had him rated as an elite prospect in this draft, or any draft for that matter. The draft as a whole shouldn't change that, nor should how deep a position was.


Calling this draft "deep" at WR means nothing if your including guys like Greg Salas or Randall Cobb. They can, and probably will go onto to be big time players, but how many players in this draft could potentially end up a #1 WR? How many do you have outside of AJ, JJ, and Little? I don't think they wanted a longterm #2 WR.

OGDraft
06-21-2011, 06:09 PM
And saying "for a #2 receiver...." First of all, that was their biggest weakness.

Wrong. That was not our biggest weakness. That was, and still is, defensive end. We could also use more depth in the secondary and a RT since Clabo could potentially leave to get his pay day. #2 WR is a need but it was the biggest need because we are simply fine on the offensive side of the ball. It's our defense that has consistently been letting us down in big games.

ATLDirtyBirds
06-21-2011, 09:39 PM
As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.

Sounds like Terrell Owens. ;)

Halsey
06-21-2011, 09:40 PM
The Falcons were so fine on offense that they managed 2 meaningful scores in the Green Bay loss, possessed the ball just over 20 minutes, went 3 for 10 on third downs, totaled under 200 yards offense, etc. The Falcons defense couldn't get a breather because of the way the offense was getting shut down.

edit: The Falcons were average last year in total offense. Three of the last 4 Super Bowl winners have been top 5-10.

FTRWRTR
06-22-2011, 01:32 PM
edit: The Falcons were average last year in total offense. Three of the last 4 Super Bowl winners have been top 5-10.You know what, you schooled me. I watch the falcons play every week and I see them score a ton of points and hear how they have the 5th highest scoring offense in the league so I never bothered to look up their offensive stats. It turns out they were indeed 16th in total offense and 12th in passing offense. Meanwhile they were also 16th in total defense and yet people assume they are this great offensive juggernaut with a crappy defense. LOL.

TitanHope
06-23-2011, 02:52 AM
It is SHEER stupidity to look at past drafts to find the percentage of success for guys taken in certain rounds when measuring the value of unknown future picks in that same round?

Say you're buying raffle tickets. You buy 101 tickets, and each individual ticket has a 1/4 chance of winning. After 100 tickets go by, 10 of them are winners and 90 of them are losers. What are the odds that the 101st ticket is a winner: 1/4 or 1/10?

According to your "statistical analysis," you'd choose 1/10.

How else would you even come close to determining the value of next year's second round pick?

I don't think there is a way to accurately determine a future pick's value. It is what it is. It's going to be your pick of the litter among the available players at a early point in the draft, and based on a massive variety of variables, could hold an massive or miniscule value. He could be as good as an All-Pro, or he could die the day after the draft ends. To try to label it as anything other than "the ## pick of the 2012 NFL Draft" is a fool's errand. Hence why as opposed to the raffle ticket's known odds, a draft pick's odds are unknown.

This is a gigantic business and if you think there is no statistical analysis based on past drafts in determining the value of future picks and that it's just a crapshoot then I think you're underestimating the complexity of the process.

I have no idea how a GM comes up with his own subjective determination of value, especially for one that he has no idea where in the round it will be. But if you have proof that this is a common occurance, then please provide it.

And saying "for a #2 receiver...." First of all, that was their biggest weakness.

That wasn't what I heard before, during, or after the draft, and this came from both Falcons fans and neutral pundits. Upgrading over Michael Jenkins was really their biggest issue? I'm sorry. The Falcons are good, but they're not so good that Michael Jenkins was what cost them a championship. Not to mention, good GM's think of future needs as well.

Second of all, a #2 receiver plays way more snaps than whatever DE they would have drafted at 27. Jones will be on the field in every single set besides GL and if for some reason before the 10-yard line the coaching staff subs in Justin Peelle for a 2TE FB 1WR look... I don't think they'll do that very often...

I don't care who they would have taken at #27 (technically, #26 due to the Ravens/Bears mishap), especially since not only would they have been able to take someone there, but they could have taken someone with their 2nd RD'er and 4th RD'er...and future 1st and 4th RD'ers as well. Michael Jenkins could have been upgraded over with either of their first two picks, with Jonathan Baldwin in the 1st or Greg Little with their 2nd (coincidentally, both these players were taking with picks originally owned by the Falcons). The rest would be gravy, whether they chose to add another pass-rusher, go BPA, or try to anticipate a future hole in the roster.

For me, the issue isn't the player. Jones is definitely a talent, and if he was their "guy," then I'm fine with them making the move. But coming from someone who looks at this without having "guys," I'm not sure I can say this was smart. You're trading 5-for-1, which means there are four guys who have the potential to improve your team that you're not gonna have the chance at. And in exchange for those 4 players, three of which are premium selections, you're upgrading your #2 WR...when that could have been accomplished without the trade - you just wouldn't have gotten the elite prospect at the position. So was upgrading an average #2 WR with an elitely talented rookie worth it? Not unless you don't have the faith in your QB and/or coaching staff that you need to surround them with elite players, which is what this move says to me.

the_dark_knight
06-23-2011, 09:54 AM
that's cute. 'i'm so oppressed because like, you're a mod, so let me start off with a bizarre, inane comment that has no relevance whatsoever to the conversation, so that when you DO reply, i can further compalin about how mean you are because you're a mod and like, your name is a different color than mine. boo fricking hoo.'

grow up.



so, you should always package your draft picks so that you don't have to cut players (which you'll do anyways) and so that a bad scouting department isn't exposed? that seems... logical, or something.



so, instead of spending crazy money on a WR who's actually proven that he can play in the nfl, you're going to spend crazy money on a WR who's proven nothing. brilliant. but hey, look at all of those stud wrs who've won the super bowl. oh... right.



why would i fear a rookie who's proven nothing in the nfl? i do appreciate the assumption that he's already a top tier nfl wideout, it's cute, but until he actually shows that he can beat an nfl cb, or run an nfl route, no one cares.



ah, more "he's already a top tier nfl receiver, and he's so good that he's actually made the defense better". is that why the lions won so many more games the year after they drafted calvin johnson? is that why the texans have gone to the playoffs so many times with andre johnson? is that why the cardinals won so many super bowls with fitz AND boldin? let me know when you catch onto the theme.



yes, i'm *jealous* that the broncos didn't trade their next 53 first round picks to take a wide receiver in the top ten. how'd you know? every single time i think something is stupid, it's clearly just jealousy.



i.e. - waaaaaaah, someone else did it to! why are you picking on us! other teams make dumb trades!



yup, not only am i 'jealous' i'm also 'hating'. i mean, you were clearly a julio jones away from winning the super bowl for the next decade straight.

Cry more mod, seriously. This is insane that you're a mod and cry like this. You clearly are jealous, and take this stuff to heart, and it's clear that you're going to end up being wrong about the amount of money spent on landing him too, considering the whole rookie wage scale thing. Once that's in place, then the Falcons are going to come out smelling like roses on this one. Especially once Julio ends up blowing up the NFL in his rookie season and people crying at night after the Falcons offense just rolls through them.

Keep bein mad dude, it's all good. You're just a whiner.

*modtag*

SativaDominant
06-23-2011, 10:31 AM
The coronation of Julio Jones reminds me of the coronation of Reggie Bush. Supremely talented players who have pretty substantial translation questions going into the NFL that seem to be getting completely glossed over by everyone.

TACKLE
06-23-2011, 11:11 AM
The coronation of Julio Jones reminds me of the coronation of Reggie Bush. Supremely talented players who have pretty substantial translation questions going into the NFL that seem to be getting completely glossed over by everyone.

C'mon man. It's not even remotely close to that. One guy was viewed as arguably the best college player in a decade and the consensus #1 player in the draft. The other one was the consensus #2 WR in the draft and was projected and ranked between 6-14 on most boards. The difference in the level of hype isn't even close. Not to mention that Reggie had a unique style of play and was supposed to be a player who transcended the position in today's NFL due to his very unique skill-set. The most popular comparison for Reg was Gale freaking Sayers. Using some hindsight, Reg's game was very hard to project to the next level but most, myself included, assumed that he'd find a way to succeed on the strength of his athleticism and playmaking ability. With Julio, we can see players right now with comparable skill-sets with similar type games. We can turn on the TV every Sunday and see a Dwayne Bowe, a Miles Austin, a Terrell Owens, a Braylon Edwards and see the similarities between their games and Julio's and make a much easier assessment of how his game will translate, for better or worse.

SativaDominant
06-23-2011, 11:25 AM
C'mon man. It's not even remotely close to that. One guy was viewed as arguably the best college player in a decade and the consensus #1 player in the draft. The other one was the consensus #2 WR in the draft and was projected and ranked between 6-14 on most boards. The difference in the level of hype isn't even close. Not to mention that Reggie had a unique style of play and was supposed to be a player who transcended the position in today's NFL due to his very unique skill-set. The most popular comparison for Reg was Gale freaking Sayers. Whereas with Julio, you can turn on the TV every Sunday and see a Dwayne Bowe, a Miles Austin, a Terrell Owens, a Braylon Edwards and see the similarities between their games and Julio's and make a much easier assessment of how his game will translate, for better or worse.

Alright, alright, I'm hyperbolizing. Nobody is saying that Julio will be a transcendent, once-in-a-generation type player like they were with Bush.

However, it's just irritating to me when a prospect's flaws are ignored. And when they say **** like:

Especially once Julio ends up blowing up the NFL in his rookie season and people crying at night after the Falcons offense just rolls through them

His floor is Reggie Williams and his ceiling is, like you compared him to, a Dwayne Bowe. I think he'll be somewhere in-between. Solid player, but not one I'd take before, say, pick 20 in the first round (depending on the value of other players in the draft - lots of variables there).

Halsey
06-23-2011, 12:19 PM
Some of Jones' so called flaws are fan talk nonsense. The idea that he plays slow comes from people who say that all the time about big, long striding WRs. I heard the same thing about Calvin Johnson.

LSU doesn't think he plays slow:

lkGxyAV7ofU

SativaDominant
06-23-2011, 12:46 PM
Dunno what you're trying to prove with that video...

He catches the ball at the 25. His build up speed is absolutely ATROCIOUS - I feel like I'm watching Matt Jones right there - he looks like he's stuck in molasses until he gets to about the 50 yard line and then his top-end speed takes over.
It should be mentioned, too, that Patrick Peterson was not in the game at that point.

Know what happens when slow WRs play fast CBs? This:

BngI6yAtTLE

And you bring up Calvin Johnson...yes, Calvin Johnson is a long-strider. However, watch this video of CJ last year and tell me he doesn't have much better build-up speed than Julio. Pay particular attention to play at 1:39 and watch his explosion off the ball.

MhV2DZPtIoo

Not to mention, CJ is so much better in terms of body control, tracking the ball in the air, "hand" catching, and grabbing the ball in traffic than Julio that they're not even comparable. Completely different types of receiver who will play vastly different NFL roles, despite similarities in measurables.

Halsey
06-23-2011, 12:57 PM
Dunno what you're trying to prove with that video...

He catches the ball at the 25. His build up speed is absolutely ATROCIOUS.

Says a nobody on a message board. Jones had well over 300 yards receiving in 3 games vs LSU. You don't do that by being slow.

Monomach
06-23-2011, 01:00 PM
Some of Jones' so called flaws are fan talk nonsense. The idea that he plays slow comes from people who say that all the time about big, long striding WRs. I heard the same thing about Calvin Johnson.

LSU doesn't think he plays slow:

lkGxyAV7ofU

a) Looks positively non-explosive. That's a slow first 25 yards.
b) I don't remember anyone saying CJ didn't play fast.

Halsey
06-23-2011, 01:03 PM
a) Looks positively non-explosive.

Another irrelevant opinion.

Fact: Over 300 yards in 3 games vs LSU

Meaningless opinion: OMGZ Julio Jones looks slow!

SativaDominant
06-23-2011, 01:09 PM
Says a nobody on a message board. Jones had well over 300 yards receiving in 3 games vs LSU. You don't do that by being slow.

Translation: I just posted a video that disproves the point I'm trying to make, so I'm going to throw in some ad-hominems and STATZZZZZZZ that have nothing to do with playing speed.

Reggie Williams had over 300 receiving yards in 3 games vs USC. I guess you don't do that by being slow, either.

Mike Mayock said right after Julio's forty at the combine that he doesn't play up to that timed speed. Greg Cosell also said this after extensive tape review and said, while he likes Jones, he seriously questions his ability to become an impact receiver down the field. I guess their opinions are worthless, too.

Halsey
06-23-2011, 01:16 PM
lol a video of Patrick Peterson making an int proves Julio is slow...

SativaDominant
06-23-2011, 01:23 PM
lol a video of Patrick Peterson making an int proves Julio is slow...

Well, you already did a pretty good job of proving he's slow with the screen pass that makes him five days to get to top-speed.

The PP video simply shows Julio getting beat to the ball despite achieving separation on his route/break. Start the video at the :46 mark, where it shows the separation and the subsequent closing speed difference between the two.

dunagan15
06-23-2011, 03:51 PM
It been 7 pages and I have yet to reply to any of this nonsense (mostly), but, as expected I'm sure a lot of you are not really sure the style of offense the Falcons run.

This huge debate of if Julio is fast or looks slow or isn't CJ, is not the determining factor of whether or not Julio is going to be successful. He fits our style of offense perfectly. Matt Ryan doesn't have Flacco like arm strength and really is just mediocre throwing the ball downfield, which is why the Falcons rarely take a chance downfield.

What Julio positives are. Route running, flexible hips, big body, in and out of cuts, YAC. That is exactly what were going to use him for, Slants, Digs, Slip screens, outs, etc. Ryan excells at making accurate throws 20 yards and under all day long, what we didnt have (aside from Roddy, whom was mostly doubled) was a WR that could make a catch and do something after the catch, Jenkins is a bean pole and at best a possession receiver, Harry Douglas couldnt catch a cold, Finneran has 2 car axles for knees, and Gonzo is old.

Throw in a young, talented WR, with all the potential in the world to be just like TO w/o the drama and I'll take that all day, even if the trade was pricey, Ill more than take that risk if he can be TO V.2.

LonghornsLegend
06-23-2011, 04:01 PM
As if anyone should be comparing any WR to Calvin Johnson, like 99.8% of any WR won't look inferior. CJ isn't a good comparison for anyone. It's like putting up tape of Mario Williams at DE, and comparing it to another 1st rd pick to show why he's not that good.

SativaDominant
06-23-2011, 04:32 PM
As if anyone should be comparing any WR to Calvin Johnson, like 99.8% of any WR won't look inferior. CJ isn't a good comparison for anyone. It's like putting up tape of Mario Williams at DE, and comparing it to another 1st rd pick to show why he's not that good.

I wasn't doing that to make Julio look inferior, I did it in comparison to the assertion that Calvin looks slow because he's a long strider and that Jones suffers from the same criticisms.

It been 7 pages and I have yet to reply to any of this nonsense (mostly), but, as expected I'm sure a lot of you are not really sure the style of offense the Falcons run.

This huge debate of if Julio is fast or looks slow or isn't CJ, is not the determining factor of whether or not Julio is going to be successful. He fits our style of offense perfectly. Matt Ryan doesn't have Flacco like arm strength and really is just mediocre throwing the ball downfield, which is why the Falcons rarely take a chance downfield.

What Julio positives are. Route running, flexible hips, big body, in and out of cuts, YAC. That is exactly what were going to use him for, Slants, Digs, Slip screens, outs, etc. Ryan excells at making accurate throws 20 yards and under all day long, what we didnt have (aside from Roddy, whom was mostly doubled) was a WR that could make a catch and do something after the catch, Jenkins is a bean pole and at best a possession receiver, Harry Douglas couldnt catch a cold, Finneran has 2 car axles for knees, and Gonzo is old.

Throw in a young, talented WR, with all the potential in the world to be just like TO w/o the drama and I'll take that all day, even if the trade was pricey, Ill more than take that risk if he can be TO V.2.

I completely understand the Falcons' need for receiving options that can handle dirty work. There are a major questions that will have to be answered to know if the trade was worth it, though:
1. Will the Falcons fundamentally change their offensive philosophy for Jones to get enough touches? It seems ridiculous to expect him to meet arbitrary statistical benchmarks, but he's going to need to be one of the league's best receivers (quickly) for the trade to be worth it. Like I've said, this was an incredibly deep and versatile group of pass catchers. And I truly believe Jones was a tier two receiver (AJ Green being the only tier one guy) whose production will be matched/equaled to receivers selected after him.

2. Will the picks sacrificed in moving up significantly hamper their ability to upgrade/reload their defense on the fly? I know they've got a couple of promising young pieces they're banking on, and Mike Smith and Van Gordor are two of the best in the league at covering up defensive deficiencies, but they absolutely need a blue chip talent, either on the defensive line or in the secondary.

Like I said, I don't think the Falcons are going to peg Jones in the wrong role. I just don't think it's worth spending multiple picks on a receiver who handles that type of role. That's the gyst of my argument. There's a reason Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall were selected in the second round and concurrently traded for second rounders.

ATLDirtyBirds
06-23-2011, 05:41 PM
Mike Mayock said right after Julio's forty at the combine that he doesn't play up to that timed speed.

Is that the same Mayock that said Julio vs. PP was the best matchup he's seen all year and that each got the better of the other several times?

OGDraft
06-23-2011, 06:51 PM
The Falcons were so fine on offense that they managed 2 meaningful scores in the Green Bay loss, possessed the ball just over 20 minutes, went 3 for 10 on third downs, totaled under 200 yards offense, etc. The Falcons defense couldn't get a breather because of the way the offense was getting shut down.

edit: The Falcons were average last year in total offense. Three of the last 4 Super Bowl winners have been top 5-10.
Thank Matt Ryan for that. 6 turnovers in 2 playoff games isn't going to get it done. I don't see how having a better #2 WR would have made any more of an impact in that game. That's on Matt and our defense that game. Here's a fun fact. We didn't force them to a single punt. That can't all be attributed to "oh they were tired".

Come on you can't honestly, as a Falcons fan who watched every single game, come to the conclusion that #2 WR was our biggest need.

onejayhawk
06-23-2011, 07:00 PM
This is a gigantic business and if you think there is no statistical analysis based on past drafts in determining the value of future picks and that it's just a crapshoot then I think you're underestimating the complexity of the process.
The NFL is NOT a gigantic business. It is barely worth calling large. Compared to my budget, certainly, but not, say, Exxon or Boeing.

That being said, it is a business, and good businessmen use a lot of analytical tools. Perhaps a couple of points.

1) Cleveland has been trading down quite a bit. Personally, I think the decision is based on a perception that low 1st round picks are more cost effective than top 10 picks. That is, possibly, just me projecting. There choice this year, Phil Taylor, could easily be an impact player, and is certainly cheaper than, say, Jake Locker or even Nick Fairley.

2) Atlanta has been building a solid roster for years. They clearly feel that solid will only take you so far, and that they have reached that point.

3) If JJ becomes Megatron II, then Atlanta made out like a bandit. If Phil Taylor becomes Vince Wilfork, ditto for the Browns. Of course there exists the possibility that JJones more resembles Crabtree, or that none of the extra Browns picks ever earns a starting spot. Your pays your money, you tries your skill, and gets your desserts.

J

Halsey
06-23-2011, 07:12 PM
Thank Matt Ryan for that. 6 turnovers in 2 playoff games isn't going to get it done. I don't see how having a better #2 WR would have made any more of an impact in that game.

You need to go back and watch the game then. I bet Julio Jones wouldn't fall down in this situation:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81db449f

He can also help take focus off Roddy White.

TACKLE
06-23-2011, 07:34 PM
It's interesting how much of our evaluations are based around how we perceive game speed based off watching these guys play on TV. It's just so subjective yet interestingly enough, people usually come to a consensus when it comes to perceived game speed.

On that note, maybe this is silly, but sometimes I wonder if and how much a prospect's team, uniform and gear effects how fast a player looks. Let's use, I don't know, Julio Jones (though I think this can apply across the board) as an example. He plays for Bama, a school known for size, strength, toughness but not speed, his team has old school plain unis, he wears an awkward old Revo helmet, has bulky taped. Again maybe this is silly but I think there is some truth to it. If Julio went somewhere like VT, Miami, Clemson, LSU and was all geared up, I can't help but think that it would feel about his speed.

This isn't so much a commentary on Julio but how even something like speed and explosiveness can be subjective.

OGDraft
06-23-2011, 11:02 PM
You need to go back and watch the game then. I bet Julio Jones wouldn't fall down in this situation:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81db449f

He can also help take focus off Roddy White.

If Matt Ryan throws that ball on time and doesn't underthrow it it's a TD. You're obviously a giant Falcons homer who will not let this go even though you make illogical points but in your world the Falcons are the greatest team ever and can do no wrong. Boo. I never understood why some fans can never criticize their team, it's not like it makes you less of a fan.

I guarantee though the Falcons will not win a Superbowl until we bring in some more help on defense because that's where we're lacking. That, and Matt Ryan needs to stop turning the ball over in the most important games of the season.

Halsey
06-23-2011, 11:15 PM
If Matt Ryan throws that ball on time

JUst stop. It's the NFL. WRs need to be able to adjust to passes that aren't perfectly thrown. Not fall down. The 'it's all Matt Ryan's fault' arguments are dumb and old. He's going to be the Falcons QB for a long time. Surrounding him with quality weapons will only help him. Michael Jenkins is not a quality weapon.

Halsey
06-23-2011, 11:21 PM
seriously?

"your opinion is irrelevant, but mine isn't"


Never said that. I back up my points with more than "he looks slow".

Halsey
06-23-2011, 11:46 PM
There's no reason to discuss it. Jones catches the pass at his own 24, turns up field, blows by the LSU defense, and crosses into the endzone in around 9 seconds. The same guy arguing that Jones is slow used Mayock to defend his point. Mayock ranked Jones the 7th best player in the Draft.

Halsey
06-24-2011, 12:05 AM
you realize there's no relationship whatsoever between those two statements, right?

There's no relationship between using Mayock to back up the opinion that Jones plays slow and where Mayock ranks Jones? I'm pretty sure Maycok wouldn't rank Jones 7th if he thought Jones played slow. ;)

Halsey
06-24-2011, 12:17 AM
You want to use Scott's opinion? The guy who wrote this:

"A long strider and a vertical threat with sneaky speed"

Be my guest, but I thought you were arguing against me.

Halsey
06-24-2011, 12:30 AM
You're arguing Jones plays slow and claim my argument is flawed. Funny.

Bosanac01
06-24-2011, 01:51 AM
please quote where i said jones plays slow. then explain the complete non-sequitur. claiming he plays slow and your argument being flawed are not only inherently unrelated, i could certainly claim both. wait, i'm guessing... mis-direct. are you actually incapable of discussing this rationally, or are you intentionally dishonest?

"jones plays slow."

I found it. :D

prock
06-24-2011, 03:55 AM
Hasley has literally strawman-ed every single logical point in this entire thread. I don't think it's intentional, I believe he just doesn't understand basic rhetorical concepts. He just can't quite grasp anything beyond the very surface, context be damned.

Halsey
06-24-2011, 07:05 AM
seriously?

"your opinion is irrelevant, but mine isn't"
"you're on the internet so you're wrong"
"he had lots of yards, so i'm right"

come on.

You responded to my posts with this and wonder why it seems you're taking the 'Jones is slow' side. What were you arguing against then? That you just didn't like that I was right? That you just wanted an excuse to make another "non-sequitur! I deem your arguments to be invalid!" post? Do you even know what you're arguing? I think you just like making pointless arguments. Find a new gimmick or something. Your act is old and predictable.

TitanHope
06-24-2011, 09:02 AM
You responded to my posts with this and wonder why it seems you're taking the 'Jones is slow' side. What were you arguing against then? That you just didn't like that I was right? That you just wanted an excuse to make another "non-sequitur! I deem your arguments to be invalid!" post? Do you even know what you're arguing? I think you just like making pointless arguments. Find a new gimmick or something. Your act is old and predictable.

You don't need to find a new "gimmick" when the current one works. "He had 300 yards in 3 games against LSU. You don't do that if you're slow," is the VERY DEFINITION of non sequitur. It's like saying, "This building is sturdy. It can't be that if it's not made of metal."

Wanna know how to get people to not call your arguments illogical? Make them logical.

Halsey
06-24-2011, 11:58 AM
You don't need to find a new "gimmick" when the current one works. "He had 300 yards in 3 games against LSU. You don't do that if you're slow," is the VERY DEFINITION of non sequitur.


No it's not. I don't think many of you here even know what non-sequitur means. You found a big word you like and just throw it out when you can't make a legitimate argument.

And the bottom line with this argument is that nobody with an effective brain cell in their head thinks Julio Jones plays slow. Does anyone here really think a lack of speed will be a problem for Jones in the NFL? Really? Really? This is one of those criticisms that come up on message boards, but don't actually mean anything on a football field.

FUNBUNCHER
06-24-2011, 12:10 PM
My prediction for Julio's rookie stats:

60 catches/750-900 yards/ 7-10 TDs.

SativaDominant
06-24-2011, 12:40 PM
No it's not. I don't think many of you here even know what non-sequitur means. You found a big word you like and just throw it out when you can't make a legitimate argument.

And the bottom line with this argument is that nobody with an effective brain cell in their head thinks Julio Jones plays slow. Does anyone here really think a lack of speed will be a problem for Jones in the NFL? Really? Really? This is one of those criticisms that come up on message boards, but don't actually mean anything on a football field.

A non-sequitur is a conclusion that does not follow the basic premise. In a non-sequitur the conclusion may or may not be correct. You can be completely right and still present disconnected logic.

This is the structure of the argument you're making:

Premise: WRs who do well against LSU must be fast.
Evidence: Julio Jones did well against LSU.
Conclusion: Julio Jones is fast.

The problem here is that we're working with an inherently flawed premise. It's common knowledge that you don't need elite speed - whether it's timed or "playing" speed - to do well against any collegiate defense. Trying to equivocate success to speed is where the disconnect in logic occurs.

So again (and slowly this time): doing...well...against...LSU...does...not...mean.. .you...play...fast.

Halsey
06-24-2011, 02:47 PM
Now you're trying to change your argument from "Julio plays slow" to "You don't need elite speed...". I doubt you really even believe he plays slow. You're just another poster on a message board who can't make an argument without exaggerating.

And the reason I said Julio is fast is because Julio is fast. The LSU games just backs up my point. You obviously don't want to accept any evidence of the truth.

prock
06-24-2011, 02:55 PM
Now you're trying to change your argument from "Julio plays slow" to "You don't need elite speed...". I doubt you really even believe he plays slow. You're just another poster on a message board who can't make an argument without exaggerating.

And the reason I said Julio is fast is because Julio is fast. The LSU games just backs up my point. You obviously don't want to accept any evidence of the truth.

Lol, I love irony.

Halsey
06-24-2011, 03:11 PM
Make a quick, hollow remark and don't show any examples of me exaggerating. Yeah, that's how you role, prick.

prock
06-24-2011, 03:36 PM
Roll*

And yes it does. And it also in reference to a good number of your posts in this thread. Keep trying though.

SativaDominant
06-24-2011, 04:07 PM
Now you're trying to change your argument from "Julio plays slow" to "You don't need elite speed...". I doubt you really even believe he plays slow. You're just another poster on a message board who can't make an argument without exaggerating.

And the reason I said Julio is fast is because Julio is fast. The LSU games just backs up my point. You obviously don't want to accept any evidence of the truth.

Jesus Christ, you're an idiot.

The problem here is that we're working with an inherently flawed premise. It's common knowledge that you don't need elite speed - whether it's timed or "playing" speed - to do well against any collegiate defense. Trying to equivocate success to speed is where the disconnect in logic occurs.

First of all, look at that bolded, italicized word. Collegiate. Cute how you end my quote with an elipses after “You don’t need elite speed” instead of finishing my god damn sentence. Further on this point, you don’t need elite speed to do well against NFL defenses either. Again, though, there is a reason that Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall were drafted in the second AND traded for a couple second round picks each instead of two firsts, a second, and two fourths.

The original question of this thread and my subsequent argument were that the Falcons ceded too much in their trade for him and that he was over-valued as a prospect. That was my original argument, it has been in this entire thread. I gave multiple reasons for it.

YOU are trying to paint my argument as "lolz he slowz." I've acknowledged that he has elite top end speed. It's evident in that video you posted (although, his poor acceleration is also painfully obvious as well), and it was evident in his sup 4.4 forty time.

His playing speed is a sub-argument of my original argument. I have not changed or flip-flopped on anything. You either lack the reading comprehension skills or the attention span to understand that an argument can go beyond one small point.

So I'll summarize this all again, and in a simple outline so you can understand it this time.

Thesis: The Falcons gave up too much for Julio Jones

I. WR is not an inherently valuable position
A. Even with gaudy statistical success, highly drafted wide receivers have historically had little to no impact when it comes to helping a team win a Superbowl
B. The type of WR role the Falcons were looking to upgrade - possession receiver with YAC ability - is even LESS valuable than a number one receiver, and can easily be filled with later picks.
II. Julio Jones was overvalued as a prospect.
A. Goes hand in hand with point I-B. He’s perfect for the role they want to use him in. Once again, though, that role isn’t inherently valuable.
B. Excellent measurables and production, but translatable NFL traits suggest a #2 receiver in a #1's body
1. Has poor acceleration/doesn’t play as fast as timed
2. Struggles tracking ball in the air
3. Loses speed out of breaks, despite relatively good hip flexibility for a man his size
C. Wide receiver was arguably the deepest position in this draft class

Wanna see the player Julio Jones was cloned from? He was arguably the best blocking WR in the NFL, too. The similarities are astounding.
MAyhX0bkl3Y

ATLDirtyBirds
06-24-2011, 04:39 PM
Oh, come on now. I'll accept the comparisons to Dwayne Bowe and the like (which would make it abundantly clear we overpaid), but Reggie Williams? Julio is far more sudden and explosive. In fact, I don't think the Reggie Williams comparison exists if he weren't known for his blocking prowess.

SativaDominant
06-24-2011, 05:47 PM
Oh, come on now. I'll accept the comparisons to Dwayne Bowe and the like (which would make it abundantly clear we overpaid), but Reggie Williams? Julio is far more sudden and explosive. In fact, I don't think the Reggie Williams comparison exists if he weren't known for his blocking prowess.

Agree to disagree on this. Julio has far, far better speed after twenty yards. I can see "explosive" depending on how you define it, but I absolutely disagree that he's more sudden. Further, they've virtually identical in terms of height, weight, build, strengths, weaknesses, and (most of all) playing style. They're both big, rugged wide receivers who (in college) excelled at doing underneath dirty work, breaking tackles, and gaining YAC. They were both terrors for collegiate DBs to take down in the open field.

Jones has two distinct advantages over Williams, though. Firstly, Williams was a knucklehead (although, the effort was always there), and Jones has his head on straight. Secondly, the situation he's entering is infinitely better than the one Williams walked into.

Plus, you don't go for over 300 yards in 3 games against USC by not being explosive or sudden.

keep in mind that reggie was rather well thought of when he was drafted. scott, for instance, had him as the 8 best prospect in that entire draft. i don't think it's out of bounds to make the comparison, unless you're being guided solely by hindsight.

Bingo. People forget how highly rated Reggie Williams was as a prospect.

FWIW:
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/944/reggie.png

ATLDirtyBirds
06-24-2011, 07:17 PM
Agree to disagree on this. Julio has far, far better speed after twenty yards. I can see "explosive" depending on how you define it, but I absolutely disagree that he's more sudden. Further, they've virtually identical in terms of height, weight, build, strengths, weaknesses, and (most of all) playing style. They're both big, rugged wide receivers who (in college) excelled at doing underneath dirty work, breaking tackles, and gaining YAC. They were both terrors for collegiate DBs to take down in the open field.

Jones has two distinct advantages over Williams, though. Firstly, Williams was a knucklehead (although, the effort was always there), and Jones has his head on straight. Secondly, the situation he's entering is infinitely better than the one Williams walked into.

Plus, you don't go for over 300 yards in 3 games against USC by not being explosive or sudden.



I think you are just using Reggie because it suits an anti Jones sentiment though. I could do the same thing for Pro Jones. Oh look, same size, same ridiculous measurable, similar style to Andre Johnson!

And I especially feel this way since I do agree with what weaknesses you've seen in Jones. However I think you are just taking it to a warped level. I'm not saying that as only a Falcons fan, but rather someone who had Julio as one of the best players of this class.

LonghornsLegend
06-24-2011, 07:19 PM
That lazy thing is a big thing alot of us forget about prospects after time. We always go back years after, and if anyone compares to a bust you get nervous the next guy is a bust, but work ethic is probably the most important factor out of them all.


Is that guy gonna take the skill set he has, and put in a ton of work to improve? Off-season and during the season, or is he just gonna rely on his ability now and the rookie contract he got and be complacent.


Besides, the Jags consolation prize that year was Roy Williams. I think it's safe to assume that it was gonna be a fail regardless. That said, RW reminds me nothing of Julio what so ever. Other then size I'm not sure I see anything noteworthy in the comparison department.

AntoinCD
06-24-2011, 07:30 PM
That lazy thing is a big thing alot of us forget about prospects after time. We always go back years after, and if anyone compares to a bust you get nervous the next guy is a bust, but work ethic is probably the most important factor out of them all.


Is that guy gonna take the skill set he has, and put in a ton of work to improve? Off-season and during the season, or is he just gonna rely on his ability now and the rookie contract he got and be complacent.


Besides, the Jags consolation prize that year was Roy Williams. I think it's safe to assume that it was gonna be a fail regardless. That said, RW reminds me nothing of Julio what so ever. Other then size I'm not sure I see anything noteworthy in the comparison department.

Agree completely. Work ethic and falling into the wrong scenario are the two biggest factors in NFL players busting IMO. Seldom do flat out bad players get drafted that high in the draft. Lazy players can get by in college based on talent, however in the NFL where the talent disparity is minimal between the very best and the average there needs to be something that sets them apart.

Looking at WR for example, players like Larry Fitzgerald put 99% of NFL players' work ethic to shame. This is a major factor in why he is a consensus top 2 WR. I have no doubt there are more talented WRs than Fitzgerald yet they are not willing to do the work.

At WR, I believe there are two main types of busts.

1. The guys who dont put in the work needed. Mike Williams for example ballooning in weight clearly didn't help his career in the early days.

2. Track guys with no hands. Troy Williamson, Ted Ginn, Darrius Heyward-Bey all were drafted in the top ten because they had the speed that teams love. However these teams failed to see that they couldn't catch, couldn't run routes etc.

LonghornsLegend
06-24-2011, 07:38 PM
Spot on. I'm also glad someone like BMW came back and has somewhat started to shape his career around. He hasn't played like a top 10 pick at all, but it's a complete turnaround from what he was. Alot of these "bust" actually can play, or had the tools to be a very good pro, the fact that they didn't put in the effort to become that player doesn't mean that anyone else who compares to them won't.


2. Track guys with no hands. Troy Williamson, Ted Ginn, Darrius Heyward-Bey all were drafted in the top ten because they had the speed that teams love. However these teams failed to see that they couldn't catch, couldn't run routes etc.



Is there anyone out there who has actually broke the mold on this yet? I stay away from these guys completely, and yet every year someone gets excited over the next fast track guy who rounds off routes and just blows by people in College.


These guys get over drafted every single year. But I guess you could say Jacoby Ford is bucking the trend, he made plays all over the place for Oakland. Pretty sure he was always a track guy 1st, at least I think. But I guess eventually Oakland is bound to hit on 1 of those guys.

Halsey
06-24-2011, 07:41 PM
Jesus Christ, you're an idiot.


That's not a nice thing to say about our lord almighty savior in heaven. Besides, he's not the one that makes you create multiple accounts. I'd bump this thread to rub your nose in it when Jones is killing it in the NFL, but you'll have probably gone through 5 more accounts by then.

Halsey
06-24-2011, 07:48 PM
It's also ironic that that Sativa is trying to use the Reggie Williams as his meaningless comparison of choice. Williams sucks because he's a lazy pothead. lol

OGDraft
06-24-2011, 08:37 PM
At first I found the thread interesting and was looking forward to a discussion. Now I come back to it for comedic purposes.

As for Jacoby Ford he has good hands. I remember he was a late riser at the all-star game (forgot which one he played in) where reports we're saying he caught everything in sight. He had a solid pair of hands to match his blazing speed.

Halsey
06-24-2011, 08:55 PM
VyHsk-VoCj4

prock
06-25-2011, 01:39 AM
Wait, a college highlight video justifies 5 picks for him? Got it.

Halsey
06-25-2011, 10:50 AM
Wait

ok...

a college highlight video justifies 5 picks for him?

No, the fact that Julio Jones is awesome, while those 5 picks will likely only produce 2, maybe 3, quality NFL contributors justifies the trade.

prock
06-25-2011, 11:07 AM
So any prospect who has awesome college highlight video is automatically bustproof and is worth 3 quality NFL players?

roscoesdad27
06-25-2011, 11:49 AM
I'm on both sides of the fence here.

J. Jones is a tremendous talent and worthy of a top 6 pick. I think he will win oroty and be a key factor in the Falcons having the best offense in the league.

BUT

It was still a stupid trade for many reasons.

1) The Falcons have a young q.b. and team as a whole, this move could only be justified if a team has an aging q.b. or a generally older team whose "window of opportunity" is about to close AND that team is truely 1 player away from getting over some hump. Shoulda stayed put, grabbed d.e. Brooks Reed in first then Greg Little in the second + have a first round pick coming next year....the trade seems desperate.

2) The defending superbowl champs and the "hump" the Falcons gotta be targeting to get over with a bold move like this eliminated yall 48-24 at your place. The plan seems to beat them 49-48 I reckon.

3) The needs just as big if not bigger for a d.e., idealy a pass rushing r.e. which is a much more premium position than #2 reciever. When the trade was first announced my first thought was Quinn.

4) Free agency has very few, if any, of the kind of impact r.e. you will need and theres lots of competition for the scraps that are available.

Halsey
06-25-2011, 02:01 PM
The Falcons can get a DE in free agency. Seems like Draft fans often think the Draft is the only way to address needs.

OGDraft
06-25-2011, 02:32 PM
4) Free agency has very few, if any, of the kind of impact r.e. you will need and theres lots of competition for the scraps that are available.

The Falcons can get a DE in free agency. Seems like Draft fans often think the Draft is the only way to address needs.

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ljtgoklom51qa1nux.gif

The best options in FA are Ray Edwards and Charles Johnson both of which are LE's. Abraham's time is almost up and we still don't have a replacement for him. He is 33 years old and what do we currently have behind him right now? Sidbury who has yet to crack the field and show any signs of actually developing into a half decent player (yet Falcons fans think he will automatically be a beast because TD drafted him), Chauncey Davis?? Cliff Matthews?? Adding a DE in free agency this year would relegate Biermann to the bench and we are still stuck with the problem of finding Abraham's replacement.

Also what's stopping us from signing a #2 WR in FA and drafting a DE in the first? You realize what you said goes both ways right and it's not really a point. If we are trading that much to move up I'd rather it be for an impact position like DE and not a #2 WR.

Halsey
06-25-2011, 02:59 PM
So Falcons's fans are wrong to think a guy Dimitroff drafted will develop, so the Falcons would be better off had Dimitroff drafted another DE? Have you considered that perhaps the Falcons weren't thrilled with the DE crop and felt Julio Jones was a significantly better talent than any DE in the entire draft?

Also you point out that Abraham is 33. Roddy White will be 30 this year. The problem of replacing White in a couple of years is now likely solved.

Also, #2 WR is an impact position. It's a passing league. Are you suggesting guys like Donald Driver and Hines Ward don't make an impact?

Monomach
06-25-2011, 07:28 PM
Have you considered that perhaps the Falcons weren't thrilled with the DE crop and felt Julio Jones was a significantly better talent than any DE in the entire draft?
This was the best DE class in multiple decades, and that is not hyperbole.

If the Falcons weren't thrilled, they need to get out of the football business.

Halsey
06-25-2011, 07:35 PM
This was the best DE class in multiple decades, and that is not hyperbole.

And Julio was drafted ahead of all of them. The Falcons weren't going to draft the whole class of DEs. They could have only taken one and they didn't like any one of them that much, obviously.

TACKLE
06-25-2011, 07:39 PM
This was the best DE class in multiple decades, and that is not hyperbole.

If the Falcons weren't thrilled, they need to get out of the football business.

Name one pass rusher who would of been a good value pick at 27.

Halsey
06-25-2011, 07:41 PM
Opinion: Teh best class of DEs in decadezzz!

Fact: One DE drafted in the top 10

lol.

Monomach
06-25-2011, 08:27 PM
Name one pass rusher who would of been a good value pick at 27.

How about I name a DE, a WR, a TE, and an OL? Those are what ATL really passed on for Julio, after all.

27. Brooks Reed or even Cameron Heyward (yeah, he's made for a 3-4, but he'd be fine in a 4-3)
59. Greg Little or Leonard Hankerson
124. DeMarcus Love
2012: Best available replacement for Tony G. Or trade this pick for something like Greg Olsen/Tony Scheffler + a 2011 third rounder or whatever.

or trade up and take Ryan Kerrigan, keeping next year's draft intact.

Heck, I'd have even used the first on Bowers and kept the other picks before doing this deal.

or even just give up all those same picks for Greg Jennings/Larry Fitzgerald. Or give up one first for Vincent Jackson/Brandon Marshall. It's dumb to use all those picks on a wideout, even if he's proven, but it'd be better than Julio, who may or may not take 1-4 years to break out, and who may or may not be a bust.


Fact: One DE drafted in the top 10


http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/non+sequitur

I'd have thought that by now, you'd have finally looked it up. You've been called on it enough.

PossibleCabbage
06-25-2011, 08:40 PM
or even just give up all those same picks for Greg Jennings/Larry Fitzgerald. Or give up one first for Vincent Jackson/Brandon Marshall. It's dumb to use all those picks on a wideout, even if he's proven, but it'd be better than Julio, who may or may not take 1-4 years to break out, and who may or may not be a bust.

You could also give up no picks and sign Sidney Rice as a free agent.

Atlanta's a lot scarier with Sidney Rice, Cameron Heyward, Greg Little, and a first round pick in 2012 than they are currently.

Halsey
06-25-2011, 08:57 PM
non sequitur (noun) A term thrown out by people on the SWDC message boards when they can't argue with Halsey's point.

Oh, and based on what I'm hearing about Greg Little's involvement with the trouble at UNC, there's a good chance he wasn't on the Falcons' Draft board. Besides, if he was so close to Jones as a prospect, as many people seem to think, why did he last till pick 59?

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Browns-rookie-Greg-Little-got-93-parking-tickets-at-UNC.html

TitanHope
06-25-2011, 09:45 PM
Actually, I believe "non sequitur" is the name of an old wooden ship used in the Civil War era.

TitanHope
06-25-2011, 09:57 PM
you're thinking of the CSS Virginia.

Damn it, I'm always mixing the two up!

ATLDirtyBirds
06-25-2011, 11:46 PM
This was the best DE class in multiple decades, and that is not hyperbole.

If the Falcons weren't thrilled, they need to get out of the football business.

The Falcons correctly predicted that their top 7 DEs would be gone by 27, which is why they decided to trade up to 6. (This after exploring options to move into the teens) And they most likely tried to move up for Von Miller FWIW. (I don't think they tried to trade up to #2 for Green/JJ)

How about I name a DE, a WR, a TE, and an OL? Those are what ATL really passed on for Julio, after all.

27. Brooks Reed or even Cameron Heyward (yeah, he's made for a 3-4, but he'd be fine in a 4-3)
59. Greg Little or Leonard Hankerson
124. DeMarcus Love
2012: Best available replacement for Tony G. Or trade this pick for something like Greg Olsen/Tony Scheffler + a 2011 third rounder or whatever.

or trade up and take Ryan Kerrigan, keeping next year's draft intact.

Heck, I'd have even used the first on Bowers and kept the other picks before doing this deal.

or even just give up all those same picks for Greg Jennings/Larry Fitzgerald. Or give up one first for Vincent Jackson/Brandon Marshall. It's dumb to use all those picks on a wideout, even if he's proven, but it'd be better than Julio, who may or may not take 1-4 years to break out, and who may or may not be a bust.


The Falcons would have picked Gabe Carimi if they stood at 27. And picking Bowers just would have been incredibly dumb, so let that one go.

Dimitroff said the WRs in the league he would have done this deal for would never be traded by their respective teams.

As far as making a deal for VJax/Marshall, you're right. They come with no other concerns. That trade would be based solely on talent. Except for the large contracts as compared to whatever the wage scale gives #6, the off the field baggage this organization has avoided, and the fact that if Julio works out like they think he will, it assures Matt a #1 target for his entire career.

Whether Julio turns out like they think he will is what the deal hinges upon, obviously. If they are right, the trade is more than fine. If they aren't, obviously it sucks. It's a helluva risk, but I applaud them for being aggressive and seeking out someone they feel is an impact player as opposed to settling.

roscoesdad27
06-26-2011, 06:58 AM
Atlanta isnt a wr away from getting over the 48-24 GB hump. That FACT parlayed with a dismal d.e. free agency market, that is still yet to be underway, and an overall young team led by a young q.b. makes this a desperate trade. Its not about Julio vs. Reed, Bowers, Little etc....its about timing.

put it like this

My Ravens are superbowl contenders and was also in need of a w.r. to help us get over the hump and we actually are in a "window of opportunity" closing situation. As much as I love Julio that woulda also been a bad trade but atleast we have the "window of opportunity is closing" thing to semi justify it.

The Browns on the other hand come out golden which will be further emphasised in next years first round where I have them picking up uber talented USC r.e. Nick Perry with YOUR pick while your in dire need of a r.e. . The good news for Falcons fans is that pick is made at selection 30 meaning I have you guys making it further than last year. The bad news is you have to play the pack in GB and you did next to nothing in trying to slow down the guy who put up astronomical numbers and propelled himself into the top tier of NFL qb's pretty mudh in that game.

ATLDirtyBirds
06-26-2011, 07:49 AM
Atlanta isnt a wr away from getting over the 48-24 GB hump. That FACT parlayed with a dismal d.e. free agency market, that is still yet to be underway, and an overall young team led by a young q.b. makes this a desperate trade. Its not about Julio vs. Reed, Bowers, Little etc....its about timing.


No, the FACT is, we had no chance at coming back at any point in that game. Our offense was entirely dependent on controlling the clock. That was the only way we could beat a team (how we beat GB in the regular season, along with a host of other teams). While we were very successful with this, the GB proved we seriously lacked an explosive element. Turner is declining, and Roddy can only do so much with constant help being rolled over to him, and no one else being a threat to make a play. We were severely lacking explosiveness and thus we made the move for Julio.

And you (or anyone else for that matter) have very little idea of what Free Agency is going to even look like, so I'm not sure how you can declare the class "dismal".


As far as the timing goes, I'll let the guy who gave the approval of the deal, and the guy who made the deal explain it.

“This move here was not a move for us to make a statement that we were one player away,” Dimitroff said. “That’s not what we are saying here. We are not one player away from anything. This is a player that is going to add to our explosiveness.”

“We are about trying to win now and trying to win for the future,” Blank said. “That’s sustainable winning. We’ve done that for three years in a row, and we have to keep going. We need playmakers and difference-makers. Guys that are special. He’s a special athlete, and he’s a special player.”

"Though the compensation was significant, we felt it was in the best interest of the organization and Matt Ryan and our progressing offense that we make a bold and aggressive move to go up and get another playmaker that would complement Roddy White and the rest of our receiver corps," Dimitroff said.

"Because I truly don't believe any one player can make or break a team," he said. "We all have to come together. Everything has to be in the proper alignment for us to be an upper-tier championship-caliber team."

Doesn't really sound like a hasty, panic move decision, but rather one that in conjunction with the pieces we have already assembled and will add to in FA, will give us what we feel is the best opportunity to be a successful football team.

roscoesdad27
06-26-2011, 08:27 AM
Im sure Julio will make the team better and will even change them from a ball control offense to a more pass first offense, that still wont be enough to beat the pack who has a top notch defense to go along with their offense. So basically yea I think they will improve next season and advance a round further. Mission accomplished if thats your goal but just know that next year is your best chance, which sucks for a young qb, cause missing that first rounder will HURT in the near future.

I agree Roddy White needs a better compliment to take pressure off but you dont have to make the trade of an aging team on the cusp to do it! Greg Little woulda been just as good for that role AND you coulda took a shot at Brooks Reed last year and/or Nick Perry this year or a top caliber cb from 2012 like Dennard or Minnifield if Reed woulda panned out.

B. Reed, G. Little and A. Dennard >>> just Julio....lol unless your satisfied for being slightly better for just 1 yea.

ATLDirtyBirds
06-26-2011, 09:29 AM
Im sure Julio will make the team better and will even change them from a ball control offense to a more pass first offense, that still wont be enough to beat the pack who has a top notch defense to go along with their offense. So basically yea I think they will improve next season and advance a round further. Mission accomplished if thats your goal but just know that next year is your best chance, which sucks for a young qb, cause missing that first rounder will HURT in the near future.

I agree Roddy White needs a better compliment to take pressure off but you dont have to make the trade of an aging team on the cusp to do it! Greg Little woulda been just as good for that role AND you coulda took a shot at Brooks Reed last year and/or Nick Perry this year or a top caliber cb from 2012 like Dennard or Minnifield if Reed woulda panned out.

B. Reed, G. Little and A. Dennard >>> just Julio....lol unless your satisfied for being slightly better for just 1 yea.

I'm not really sure how you can see the future and know how the season is going to turn out for us. Just because the Packers crushed us doesn't mean we are doomed to repeat that fate.

I like Greg Little a good deal, but
a. We probably wouldn't have drafted him anyway due to off the field concerns.
b. There's a reason in the draft process that he was viewed as a 2nd round player and Julio was widely held as a top 10 prospect. That's not to say Greg Little can't wind up being better, but to say that he's just as good at this point is silly.


And thinking who we could get next year is an exercise in futility due to how volatile the draft process is. There are also more ways than draft picks to improve your team. Dimitroff has already stated that a part of the reasoning behind the move was faith in our how we've developed our depth and their ability to step into more prominent roles, and of course, there is free agency.

Halsey
06-26-2011, 11:02 AM
Yeah, not buying the 'Greg Little is just as good as Julio' talk. Julio is faster, more mature, more productive and better coached in college than Little.

bigbluedefense
06-26-2011, 12:16 PM
I don't question Julio's talent at all. I think he's going to be a beast, I was a big Julio fan. Especially with White opposite of him.

I just think it's way too steep of a price to pay for a WR when you have other pressing needs.

They still need pass rushers, and players in that secondary, a quick explosive slot WR and a future TE. They made a win now move when in my opinion, they are not in position to make such a move.

They're a good team. But I don't think this move gets them over the hump this year, and hurts them in the long term bc they lost so many chips in the process.

And that division is intense, that won't do them any favors either.

bucfan12
06-26-2011, 01:02 PM
Atlanta's offense seemed too conservative. They never really tried opening up the passing game calling for more down the field shots. Their game was to pound the rock and call for short to mid route pass plays with the occasional shot down the field. Roddy White was a playmaker last year.

Julio won't make the offense better unless they open up the offense.

descendency
06-26-2011, 01:20 PM
I can't believe this is still going.

TitanHope
06-26-2011, 01:42 PM
At risk of getting sucked back into this, for me, the argument isn't Greg Little > Julio Jones, or even Little =/= Jones. It's that a 2011 1st RDer + Greg Little + 2012 1st RD'er + 2011 4th RD'er + 2012 4th RD'er > Jones.

Plus, the talent gap is diminished between the two based on the positional need and value. The player will be the #2 WR (at least at first), and not the go-to guy who is Roddy White. That lowers the ceiling, especially since I don't think the Falcons will be a heavy pass team regardless of Jones. They have a great back in Turner and I don't think that type of offense suits Matt Ryan, who is already a low percentage passer and has lapses in his decision making. I don't think there's a single person who believes Little is a better prospect than Jones. But that is through the vein of projecting a #1 WR (which both are expected to be in time, which is hard to project considering the Browns don't have a WR worth a damn in front of Little and Roddy White is entering prime at a position that has a long lifespan). Through the vein of a #2 WR, less will be required and both have the ability to fulfill that requirement, yet one was immensely cheaper than the other.

I think what really has people disliking this trade is the waste. There is guaranteed waste in this, whether with the trade, Julio, or the current personnel. You make a blockbuster trade to pick a guy for the #2 WR spot, with the rationale that he might develop into a #1 WR when the current go-to WR diminishes. The plan is to put him in at #2 WR, let him develop and contribute for the likely 4 seasons for White to diminish, and then Jones transitions seemlessly into the go-to role for Matt Ryan. What happens if Julio lives up to his talent? Awesome, so how do you maximize both Jones, White, and Michael Turner for the years White/Turner are in their primes? It probably won't happen. One guy's talent will be wasted. And if it's Julio's, he'll be labeled a bust because you don't make this trade and take a guy that high to make him second (or 3rd) fiddle until he's entering his 2nd contract. Julio Jones doesn't live up to his talent? He'll be labeled a bust and the Falcons will have wasted all those picks they traded to get him. If Julio develops into a good #2 but can't make it at #1, he'll be labeled a bust and the Falcons would have wasted all those picks.

If there's a negative coming out of a trade when the player works out, how can I objectively call it a good trade? For me, I'm not going to label this a good or bad thing based on what Julio Jones develops into. It's going to be if the Falcons win. This trade is only good if the wins gained by having all these players at their disposal allows for more wins. If they lose, I don't care if Matt Ryan has the best WR tandem in the league or has an elite option for the rest of his career - the team got worse, which is the problem. And for most people to eventually approve of this, Julio will have to beast and the Falcons will have to win.

ATLDirtyBirds
06-26-2011, 03:19 PM
I don't question Julio's talent at all. I think he's going to be a beast, I was a big Julio fan. Especially with White opposite of him.

I just think it's way too steep of a price to pay for a WR when you have other pressing needs.

They still need pass rushers, and players in that secondary, a quick explosive slot WR and a future TE. They made a win now move when in my opinion, they are not in position to make such a move.

They're a good team. But I don't think this move gets them over the hump this year, and hurts them in the long term bc they lost so many chips in the process.

And that division is intense, that won't do them any favors either.

I agree the price was too steep.

I think the move was made in part on counting on some of the guys we have/can get in Free Agency. Our needs really aren't that great. That's not to say there aren't more than a few places that can be improved on, but the only thing that's a true necessity would be another pass rusher. Our secondary just lacks depth, but we have all of the starters filled with at least solid players. Slot WR necessity is mitigated by getting Jones, but Harry Douglas still deserves one more year, fully recovered. And future TE is more of a luxury, and something that can be drafted next year.

Atlanta's offense seemed too conservative. They never really tried opening up the passing game calling for more down the field shots. Their game was to pound the rock and call for short to mid route pass plays with the occasional shot down the field. Roddy White was a playmaker last year.

Julio won't make the offense better unless they open up the offense.

Well, you'd certainly have to hope that finally having someone with some explosive ability other than Roddy would influence Mularkey to make some changes. Otherwise, ugh.

d34ng3l021
06-26-2011, 03:22 PM
At risk of getting sucked back into this, for me, the argument isn't Greg Little > Julio Jones, or even Little =/= Jones. It's that a 2011 1st RDer + Greg Little + 2012 1st RD'er + 2011 4th RD'er + 2012 4th RD'er > Jones.

Plus, the talent gap is diminished between the two based on the positional need and value. The player will be the #2 WR (at least at first), and not the go-to guy who is Roddy White. That lowers the ceiling, especially since I don't think the Falcons will be a heavy pass team regardless of Jones. They have a great back in Turner and I don't think that type of offense suits Matt Ryan, who is already a low percentage passer and has lapses in his decision making. I don't think there's a single person who believes Little is a better prospect than Jones. But that is through the vein of projecting a #1 WR (which both are expected to be in time, which is hard to project considering the Browns don't have a WR worth a damn in front of Little and Roddy White is entering prime at a position that has a long lifespan). Through the vein of a #2 WR, less will be required and both have the ability to fulfill that requirement, yet one was immensely cheaper than the other.

Matt Ryan was ranked 9th in the league in terms of attempts/game in 2010, and this is while he was a 3rd year QB with a running game that was ranked 5th in attempts/game. As this league continues to emphasize the passing game and Michael Turner takes more punishment, I don't see why the Falcons and their growing franchise QB can't become a pass heavy team. I don't think the argument that "Matt Ryan is a low percentage passer" (what does that even mean? Ryan's comp. % in his first 3 years is 60.7. Peyton Manning: 61.1, Drew Brees: 61.3, Tom Brady: 61.9. I guess those offenses aren't going to become pass-orien-oh wait...) or that he has lapses in decision making (damn, a 3rd year QB is still having lapses in decision making? instead of throwing an interception every 42 passes, it should be 100!).

And yes, Little is the much more cheaper option as a #2 WR, and yes, they both reach the baseline ability level of being a good WR 2, but how are you going to leave it at that? Both will meet the requirement, but if one WR, due to his excess talent and work ethic, is able to beat coverages more often than the other, why doesn't be get props for that? Assuming a scenario where both Jones or Little are the Falcon's #2 WR, my guess is that Jones beats coverages more often, becomes more of a reliable option for Ryan, and opens up the big play ability between him and White more consistently. The last reasoning is exactly why the Falcons traded the farm for a WR (that and defenses have to be honest against Turner).

I think what really has people disliking this trade is the waste. There is guaranteed waste in this, whether with the trade, Julio, or the current personnel. You make a blockbuster trade to pick a guy for the #2 WR spot, with the rationale that he might develop into a #1 WR when the current go-to WR diminishes. The plan is to put him in at #2 WR, let him develop and contribute for the likely 4 seasons for White to diminish, and then Jones transitions seemlessly into the go-to role for Matt Ryan. What happens if Julio lives up to his talent? Awesome, so how do you maximize both Jones, White, and Michael Turner for the years White/Turner are in their primes? It probably won't happen. One guy's talent will be wasted. And if it's Julio's, he'll be labeled a bust because you don't make this trade and take a guy that high to make him second (or 3rd) fiddle until he's entering his 2nd contract. Julio Jones doesn't live up to his talent? He'll be labeled a bust and the Falcons will have wasted all those picks they traded to get him. If Julio develops into a good #2 but can't make it at #1, he'll be labeled a bust and the Falcons would have wasted all those picks.

Wasting talent is exactly what won't happen - I guess it is a matter of how you look at it. White is a perfectly capable #1 for the next 2-3 years while Jones won't be ready to be a #1 for the next 2-3 years (or a little more). Julio Jones was brought in to take the heat off Roddy White and make defenses honest against the run - if he can stretch the defense more consistently than slow-as-molasses Michael Jenkins, he is already doing his part in oiling up the machine that is the Falcons' offense. I don't see how talent is getting wasted if White, Turner, and Jones are all starters and on the field at once. On every given pass play, they BOTH have a chance to beat their coverage and Matt Ryan has more options for making decisions. Of course, Roddy between the ages of 30-33 will get more targets than Jones between the ages of 22-25, but I don't consider that talent wasting - I think you do?

If there's a negative coming out of a trade when the player works out, how can I objectively call it a good trade? For me, I'm not going to label this a good or bad thing based on what Julio Jones develops into. It's going to be if the Falcons win. This trade is only good if the wins gained by having all these players at their disposal allows for more wins. If they lose, I don't care if Matt Ryan has the best WR tandem in the league or has an elite option for the rest of his career - the team got worse, which is the problem. And for most people to eventually approve of this, Julio will have to beast and the Falcons will have to win.

Exactly. It's nice to finally agree on something. Julio Jones' impact on this team is more than the number of catches and yards he gains. Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White all had career lows in YPA and YPC (6.5, 4.1, and 12.1) and that is what caused the offense to sputter out. Some of the non-explosiveness was on purpose to keep the weak Falcon's defense off the field, but explosive plays are needed to if the Falcons are to fall behind more than 14 points. The immediate returns of this trade are going to be measured through the increase in the star trio's efficiency averages; Jones can gain anywhere between 300-900 yards, but if the trio's YPA and YPC rises noticeably to 7.0, 4.5, and 14.0, I will consider the Jones' trade a success. That is how the success of this trade is to be measured because that is why the trade happened. I know that next season people will be calling the Julio Jones trade a bust because he didn't put up 850 yards with 8 TDs in his rookie season, but remember to check out the rest of the team's success.

prock
06-26-2011, 04:32 PM
And Julio was drafted ahead of all of them. The Falcons weren't going to draft the whole class of DEs. They could have only taken one and they didn't like any one of them that much, obviously.

How does Julio going ahead of those ends have any relevance?

Opinion: Teh best class of DEs in decadezzz!

Fact: One DE drafted in the top 10

lol.

Oh yeah, only players in the top 10 are good.

Yeah, not buying the 'Greg Little is just as good as Julio' talk. Julio is faster, more mature, more productive and better coached in college than Little.

Not one person said this in the entire thread. You really are too dumb to argue with.

"Because I truly don't believe any one player can make or break a team," he said. "We all have to come together. Everything has to be in the proper alignment for us to be an upper-tier championship-caliber team."

Based on the fact he traded 5 players for 1, I don't really know what to make of this quote.

prock
06-26-2011, 04:35 PM
Not one person in this thread who is pro-Julio trade has answered how one rookie receiver with a high ceiling (whom I absolutely loved as a prospect) is better than 5 picks, especially with a team with so many needs, especially on the defensive side. Until that happens, I won't post again in this thread/

This is Halsey's cue to completely miss the point and redirect the argument.

LonghornsLegend
06-26-2011, 04:49 PM
Not one person in this thread who is pro-Julio trade has answered how one rookie receiver with a high ceiling (whom I absolutely loved as a prospect) is better than 5 picks.

I didn't know we had to? I guess you could call me pro-Julio, but why does that mean I have to say he's better then 5 picks? All I know is 5 picks sounds better then any 1 player before you know what those picks were gonna amount to. You could easily go back in past and find examples where teams would have landed pro bowlers with all 5 picks, and you could just as easily find teams who wish they had gave up 5 picks for Calvin or Andre while they were blowing other picks.


I already said they gave up 2 much, but I don't think that means I have to come up with an argument as to why he's better then 5 picks. I do think he'll make STL regret not trading up(at a much cheaper cost).

prock
06-26-2011, 05:25 PM
You agree they gave up too much, so it isn't really addressing you. I agree STL should have traded up for him (although Quinn isn't a bad consolation). But I don't understand how it is possible to justify this trade. You could look back in the future and Cleveland could have blown every pick. That doesn't make the trade any better at the time. It's possible that Atlanta could have given up 8 picks and it still would have worked out better for them, but it doesn't mean that it is justifiable. Maybe the ends will justify the means, but I highly doubt it. If it works out better in the long run, Atlanta got ******* lucky because the odds aren't with them that 1 player will be better than 5.

descendency
06-26-2011, 05:32 PM
Not one person in this thread who is pro-Julio trade has answered how one rookie receiver with a high ceiling (whom I absolutely loved as a prospect) is better than 5 picks, especially with a team with so many needs, especially on the defensive side.

One effective way to improve the defense is to keep them off the field.

prock
06-26-2011, 05:40 PM
One effective way to improve the defense is to keep them off the field.

Another effective way is to add more players to your defense while still adding talent to offense.

LonghornsLegend
06-26-2011, 05:45 PM
Yea but this isn't the most anyone has ever paid. The Saints paid twice this amount for a RB. Turns out Ditka knew what he saw because he was looking at a HOF RB, yet he still felt that 1 RB was worth more then all those picks.


I don't think it's just always so cut and dry that 4>1 or whatever. GM's/coaches take calculated risk at times that sometimes pan out, sometimes don't. For as much as Greg Little was brought up in this thread we have no clue if ATL even liked him, or if he's gonna pan out himself. He has played WR for like, 5 games or so? On top of missing an entire season.

AntoinCD
06-26-2011, 05:53 PM
My opinion on the matter is, it was a great trade for Atlanta but they also gave up far too much...if that makes sense.

Dimitroff identified 2 players(Julio and AJ Green) who he thought were the missing pieces to make this offense both explosive and elite. He failed at getting Green so got Julio. I agree with the premise that one of those WRs will greatly improve the Falcons offense. What Jones forces defenses to do is respect him as a threat. By doubling Roddy White or rolling coverage to his side, opposing defense could then also load the box to stop Michael Turner. In doing this they were able to effectively slow down the running attack, the best WR option and also it negatively affected Tony Gonzalez as there were more defenders in the box to cover him.

By adding another legitimate threat opposite Roddy White defense can no longer play this way.

As some of the Falcons fans have pointed out thus far in this thread, their offense was based around a ball control style through Turner with Roddy White as really the only threat outside. Julio Jones SHOULD allow them to expand upon their current playbook.

Now the downside to the trade is obvious. Regardless of the number of picks they gave up, they had bigger needs. If this trade was made for Robert Quinn to play DE then I wonder what the reaction would be. If Patrick Peterson had fallen another selection how would the critics have felt? How about Nick Fairley to play DT?

Defensively the Falcons are a very average team. They could use at least one DE and possibly a DT depending on Peria Jerry's development. In most people's opinion there were two extremely highly rated players at those positions available when the Falcons made their trade.

All in all, it was obvious that the Falcons felt they were one blue chip player away from contending for the Superbowl regularly. And this is a passing league. With Ryan, White, Jones, Turner, Quizz etc on offense for at least the next few years they should be a good team offensively, however on defense they will continually struggle. Maybe they feel they will win the majority of their shootouts.


When looking at the facts and just on what we know now this looks a very poor trade for the Falcons and it may well turn out to be so. I think I like it because it seems to be the anti-Belichick thing to do, which is strange coming from a Belichick disciple in Dimitroff, and even stranger because Belichick has had great success overall in the draft. Instead of manipulating the draft to get pieces who fit in and should all make contributions, Dimitroff saw a player he loved, a player he thought was the key, and ripped up his value chart to get him. As a Pats fans watching players like Robert Quinn fall so close and not have them trade up was excrutiating so I guess that's why I like it.

The Falcons showed an incredible amount of balls to do this and only time will tell whether it was worth it, and my instinct says it will end up that it was. On pure value and numbers??? No it wasn't close to being a good trade for Atlanta.

OGDraft
06-26-2011, 07:05 PM
On pure value and numbers??? No it wasn't close to being a good trade for Atlanta.

Yup, which was what I originally posted about. No one knows what exactly Julio will do with the Falcons. So arguing about that, and the countless other "arguments" brought up in this thread, is irrelevant.

prock
06-26-2011, 07:10 PM
If Julio blows up and becomes better than anything the Falcons could have done with those 5 picks, then they trade looks good. But at the time, the odds are against it, and if I'm a GM I would probably play the odds as much as possible. It is a really ballsy trade, and it shows that the Falcons are serious, but it still doesn't make sense to me.

Monomach
06-26-2011, 07:17 PM
Yeah, not buying the 'Greg Little is just as good as Julio' talk. Julio is faster, more mature, more productive and better coached in college than Little.

http://awesomegifs.com/wp-content/uploads/beeker-what-is-this-i-dont-even.gif


Read this and recognize a talent of yours: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

descendency
06-26-2011, 07:41 PM
If Julio blows up and becomes better than anything the Falcons could have done with those 5 picks, then they trade looks good. But at the time, the odds are against it, and if I'm a GM I would probably play the odds as much as possible. It is a really ballsy trade, and it shows that the Falcons are serious, but it still doesn't make sense to me.

Half of them probably bust and the other 2 or 3 will have one good player from them. That's how the draft works.

Look at what the Saints gave up for Ricky Williams and tell me how much the Redskins actually got out of it. They got Lavar Arrington and Champ Bailey, who they traded.

prock
06-26-2011, 07:44 PM
I have no idea why Williams is brought up. That was a ******* terrible trade too. What the Redskins did with it is irrelevant. "The Redskins made bad picks so that means the Browns will too!"

So your argument for trading lots of picks for Jones is that they probably would have ****** up on those other picks anyway, got it.

ATLDirtyBirds
06-26-2011, 08:22 PM
Not one person in this thread who is pro-Julio trade has answered how one rookie receiver with a high ceiling (whom I absolutely loved as a prospect) is better than 5 picks, especially with a team with so many needs, especially on the defensive side. Until that happens, I won't post again in this thread/

This is Halsey's cue to completely miss the point and redirect the argument.

Obviously 5 picks sounds better and very well may end up better/useful. I'll pose it to you like this though. How many of those 5 picks do you think have the instant ability to drastically alter our offense the way we all expect Julio to?

As far as the "so many needs" part, you lost me. Don't get me wrong, we are far from a perfect team, but as far as massive gaping holes? It was a #2 WR and an impact pass rusher. If we don't acquire a pass rusher in free agency, I'll agree that this move lacked proper foresight. As TACKLE posed before, name an impact pass rusher that would have been available to us at 27 or 44. A major part of making the move up was that the Falcons correctly predicted that none of the defensive ends they truly wanted would be there.



Another effective way is to add more players to your defense while still adding talent to offense.

Kind of eluding to what I said before, our defense isn't horrendous. People like to think it is because of how badly the Packers made us look, but at points it was actually even lauded, especially for the stoutness in the run game. I don't think it's a stretch to say it's an average defense.

And Sativa or BBD (maybe even both) I think said it perfectly before. This is what Mike Smith can hang his hat on. The fact that he gives his defenses a tough, hard working, blue collar, etc. personality and has the ability to work with deficient pieces.

ATLDirtyBirds
06-26-2011, 08:22 PM
Edit: Double....

prock
06-26-2011, 08:41 PM
This still doesn't make sense to me. Obviously they assumed they wouldn't get the end they wanted at 27, or they weren't in love with anyone in the second round. They probably wouldn't have gotten the instant impact they expect from Julio from those picks. That being said, they are expecting a lot from a rookie receiver. That is hard to bank on. Trading 5 picks for a rookie receiver will never make sense to me, and I do love Julio (one of my favorite prospects in the draft). They could get a receiver in FA and an impact rusher that they could have traded up for without giving up next years draft too. There are a billion other things they could feasibly have done with those same resources that would have been better. If Falcons fans are fine with this trade, whatever. It is a very, very risky trade, and I think it's terrible, but if you are fine with it, good luck. I have mainly kept posting in this thread to argue these stupid ******* posts that many members keep putting out there. But if your rationale is good enough for you, I can't argue it, because there isn't really anything that is going to convince me that 5 picks is worth a rookie receiver. There also isn't going to be anything that is going to sway your belief either.

ATLDirtyBirds
06-26-2011, 08:49 PM
This still doesn't make sense to me. Obviously they assumed they wouldn't get the end they wanted at 27, or they weren't in love with anyone in the second round. They probably wouldn't have gotten the instant impact they expect from Julio from those picks. That being said, they are expecting a lot from a rookie receiver. That is hard to bank on. Trading 5 picks for a rookie receiver will never make sense to me, and I do love Julio (one of my favorite prospects in the draft). They could get a receiver in FA and an impact rusher that they could have traded up for without giving up next years draft too. There are a billion other things they could feasibly have done with those same resources that would have been better. If Falcons fans are fine with this trade, whatever. It is a very, very risky trade, and I think it's terrible, but if you are fine with it, good luck. I have mainly kept posting in this thread to argue these stupid ******* posts that many members keep putting out there. But if your rationale is good enough for you, I can't argue it, because there isn't really anything that is going to convince me that 5 picks is worth a rookie receiver. There also isn't going to be anything that is going to sway your belief either.


To be fair, they did apparently inquire about moving into the teens, but were met with little interest.

And to be fair, I don't even love the trade or anything like that. The only reason I don't hate it/defend it is because I'm hoping the Falcons follow through on a plan. Obviously if the offensive strategy remains the same, we fail to occupy needs throughout FA, Julio isn't the player they thought ("Nobody in our organization feared bust or even mediocrity with Julio."-Dimitroff), the move leaves me baffled. In keeping with the fairness, I suppose I give the trade some more leeway due to the success Dimitroff has had in building the team.

BamaFalcon59
06-26-2011, 09:38 PM
Julio is going to be a monster.

/chiming in.

Also, for our resources, we still picked up some decent impact via the draft. Dent will be a starter or in the two-deep at the minimum, 'Quizz will be in the back rotation, Bosher will likely start, Mattews will have a shot at end. This class will make an impact, without any doubt. And there have been a many drafts that made no impact at all, despite a high volume of picks.

prock
06-26-2011, 09:50 PM
There have been many drafts that have made no impact at all, but these late round picks will without any doubt whatsoever.

ArkyRamsFan
06-26-2011, 11:49 PM
I already said they gave up 2 much, but I don't think that means I have to come up with an argument as to why he's better then 5 picks. I do think he'll make STL regret not trading up(at a much cheaper cost).

This is the second or third time that I have read this statement. The Rams were in no way going to trade up to the 6th spot for anybody, especially a wideout, no matter who it was.

This would have cost us 3 or maybe even 4 picks and would not have been feasible at all.

We simply have too many holes to fill and need every pick we can muster at this point in time.

Also, some have said that they heard Billy Devaney say in a radio interview that he was looking to trade up or something to that effect. Heh!! That's really kinda funny, lol.

There is no one better at blowing smoke during and after the draft time, and I wouldn't put a bit of credence in anything Billy Devaney says about the Rams draft board and/or plans.

He simply never divulges information and, actually, usually puts out lots of disinformation.

And, finally, I am very glad that we stayed put at #14 and got a prospect like Robert Quinn, who should have gone earlier in the draft.

Now that is value and that is what we need to build the Rams into a playoff caliber team.

We need more picks like that and stay away from outlandish and ludicrous trades like the Falcons did.

LonghornsLegend
06-26-2011, 11:55 PM
This is the second or third time that I have read this statement. The Rams were in no way going to trade up to the 6th spot for anybody, especially a wideout, no matter who it was.



Where did I ever say they would? Or that they were thinking about it? I just said that I think Julio is gonna be good enough he'd make STL regret not trading up. That remains to be seen, and it's not like I'm using alot of evidence to suggest so.


That said, Salas and Pettis are much better fits for McDaniels' offense anyway, but down the line I do think they'll wish they had.

Halsey
06-27-2011, 12:28 AM
Yeah, not buying the 'Greg Little is just as good as Julio' talk. Julio is faster, more mature, more productive and better coached in college than Little.


Not one person said this in the entire thread. You really are too dumb to argue with.


Greg Little woulda been just as good for that role


Learn to read, prick. ;)

prock
06-27-2011, 01:35 AM
Learn to read, prick. ;)

Sorry, but he said Greg Little would have been just as good of an option at #2 wide receiver, hence "in that role". Good try though, at least you're attempting reading comprehension now.

Halsey
06-27-2011, 01:54 AM
Sorry, but he said Greg Little would have been just as good of an option at #2 wide receiver, hence "in that role". Good try though, at least you're attempting reading comprehension now.

But he clearly wouldn't be. Julio Jones is the Falcon's attempt to get Isaac Bruce/Torry Holt 2.0. Jones will start as the #2 and then eventually become the #1. Greg Little was an inferior prospect to 'fill that role'.

prock
06-27-2011, 02:33 AM
But he clearly wouldn't be. Julio Jones is the Falcon's attempt to get Isaac Bruce/Torry Holt 2.0. Jones will start as the #2 and then eventually become the #1. Greg Little was an inferior prospect to 'fill that role'.

His point was that the trade seemed like a win-now trade, with Jones to be the #2 which Little would have also been.

roscoesdad27
06-27-2011, 05:57 AM
I will retract slightly...Little would be for all intents and purposes be just about as good Julio for a #2 wr role opposite a stud and established #1 reciever in his prime. The value with Julio is as a #1 reciever and that value will be diminished cause Atlanta already has a young #1. It would be like Cleveland trading up from the 20's into the top 6, giving up a future first rounder, to get a stud left tackle prospect to fill their hole at right tackle. That trade would be equally stupid.