Values & Reaches

[Scott Wright]

My look at who went too early and who went too late in the 2011 NFL Draft:

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Values and Reaches
http://www.draftcountdown.com/Results/Values-Reaches.php

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[DiG]

Pretty good list. Bowers is one of those tough ones to include in these list given the publicity of his fall. Has to be more than we know going on with his draft process. Also not sure that you can list 7th rounders as reaches. I like seeing Niles Paul on there but I actually thought that Hankerson was the better value.

[AntoinCD]

Ridley for me was one of the biggest reaches in the entire draft. Went about 100 spots higher than he should have gone.

I wouldn't necessarily agree with Bowers and Austin as values either. If the medical is that bad on Bowers then it may even be a reach. For a guy who I never expected to be an impact player anyway to have such major questions I think it seems about right. Austin is a completely different story. Some of his game tape is first round quality and some is late round quality. Consistent effort, maturity issues, suspended all last year??? I knida feel like everyone fell in love with him leading up to the draft and forgot what a douche he is and that his tape does not warrant him to be a first rounder.

[tjsunstein]

I think it's hard to call anyone picked in the 6th or 7th a reach. The Jonas Mouton pick for San Diego was terrible. I still don't like where we picked Green, however, I like him as a player.

[wicket]

three saints picks on the value side, all of whom fill a need

:feelsgoodman:

[Scott Wright]

I tend to agree in regards to calling late rounders reaches. However the guys that I included were not expected to be selected by vast majority of teams, which is why they made the list.

[the_dark_knight]

I'd put Clayborne as a reach too, kid can only play 1 side of the line in the NFL and may not even be able to handle that with his health concerns, which to me are far greater than Herzlich or Bowers.

Overall I like the list. I like that the Falcons didn't have any 'reaches' this year, that feels good, since normally we have 1 or 2, and we got 1 value pick at a position of need for sure with Matthews. I'd prolly include Quizz in the 'values' side of things as well.

I hate that New England got Mallett just when they were heading towards their deathknell they come back in a big way with a friggin pick that will allow both him and them to flourish.

[AntoinCD]

I'd put Clayborne as a reach too, kid can only play 1 side of the line in the NFL and may not even be able to handle that with his health concerns, which to me are far greater than Herzlich or Bowers.

Overall I like the list. I like that the Falcons didn't have any 'reaches' this year, that feels good, since normally we have 1 or 2, and we got 1 value pick at a position of need for sure with Matthews. I'd prolly include Quizz in the 'values' side of things as well.

I hate that New England got Mallett just when they were heading towards their deathknell they come back in a big way with a friggin pick that will allow both him and them to flourish.

Clayborn has had the issue with his shoulder his whole life and been able to prosper despite it. It's not like Herzlich getting cancer or Bowers needing microfracture surgery on his knee. What you see on film with Clayborn is him playing every game with the same problem and there is no reason to think it will suddenly affect him in the NFL. About only being able to play one side of the line...does that stop obvious 3 techniques getting drafted highly? How about MLBs? Having one set position isn't a terrible thing. Sure it limits versatility but there are people in the Hall of Fame who could 'only' play one position

[Vaylor]

God I hated the Ridley pick.

Can 7th round picks really be considered reaches?

[PossibleCabbage]

It's especially hard to call a seventh round pick a reach in the context of the current labor situation. If a team wants to make sure they get a guy that they would otherwise have as a priority free agent, they may not have a choice this year to do anything other than draft him. So I'm thinking that a number of 7th round "reaches" as you call them are mostly just teams picking the highest priority guy off of their UDFA board.

I also think you're underselling Alex Green. There simply weren't that many NFL caliber "big backs" in this draft.

[bitonti]

God I hated the Ridley pick.


Steven Ridley ran very hard at LSU. I think he will be a very solid player

[RWills]

Whats with the hate for Ridley, the guy was given a 2nd-3rd round grade from draft advisories, just because you people value him less he is a reach? this is why NONE of us are getting paid for this. I remember the laughing when they drafted Volmer, Mankins and McCourty. He is a big back that works hards, turns his legs, and has soft hands. I would take him over Daniel Thomas...how many fumbles did that guy have in his college career.

Would Marcus Cannon be the ultimate value pick

[Splat]

I loved Justin Houston to the Chiefs in the 3rd. Gabe Miller in the 5th not so much.

[Halsey]

Why was Matthews still on the board in the 7th? I want to feel like the Falcons got a major steal there, but even they passed him up 20 picks earlier, despite the need at DE.

[killxswitch]

I am biased but I thought that both Castonzo and Nevis were pretty damn good value picks for the Colts.

[General Zod]

Vikes maybe had the biggest reach, but at least they made the value pick column 3 times. lol

[Chargerfn909]

Still scratching my head on the Jonas Mouton pick. Watching some film on him, I do think he's a no-nonsense type of guys with a high motor but 61st overall just does NOT make sense.

[the_dark_knight]

Clayborn has had the issue with his shoulder his whole life and been able to prosper despite it. It's not like Herzlich getting cancer or Bowers needing microfracture surgery on his knee. What you see on film with Clayborn is him playing every game with the same problem and there is no reason to think it will suddenly affect him in the NFL. About only being able to play one side of the line...does that stop obvious 3 techniques getting drafted highly? How about MLBs? Having one set position isn't a terrible thing. Sure it limits versatility but there are people in the Hall of Fame who could 'only' play one position

He had 1 good year in college, and 1 mediocre year, the more recent being the worst year. I mean, to think he's not a reach as a first rounder is just beyond me. I was livid at the though of him at 27 due to his extreme limitations, and unlikeliness that he can ever really live up to a first round grade. I don't think Clayborne is more than a 3rd-4th round role player. While every team needs those players (and I think he has an amazing work ethic/attitude) I wouldn't want to use my first rounders on those "glue" guys.

[Wrathman]

Still scratching my head on the Jonas Mouton pick. Watching some film on him, I do think he's a no-nonsense type of guys with a high motor but 61st overall just does NOT make sense.

Worst pick of the draft from a value standpoint. It reminds me of the reach for Jacob Hester at the top of Round 3 in 2008.

[prock]

I don't get how Marvin Austin (who is a bad football player) is a steal in the second round. He has not done a thing in college to even earn that pick. If being lazy, unproductive, and being a year removed from competetive football is a steal in the second round, I need to reevaluate how to analyze prospects I guess.

[batsandgats]

Whats with the hate for Ridley, the guy was given a 2nd-3rd round grade from draft advisories, just because you people value him less he is a reach? this is why NONE of us are getting paid for this. I remember the laughing when they drafted Volmer, Mankins and McCourty. He is a big back that works hards, turns his legs, and has soft hands. I would take him over Daniel Thomas...how many fumbles did that guy have in his college career.

Would Marcus Cannon be the ultimate value pick

He was going to fall if the Pats didn't take him. I have been watching LSU for a long time. Its not hate, its just thinking the guy is overrated for where he went. Why can't people dislike a player's skillset without being called a hater?

To me, Ridley is a poorer version of Jacob Hester,the only difference is Hester was a little more agile, faster, and a better 10 yard split (Hester had a 1.5 even split with Ridley having a 1.6), a little bigger and more ability to play fullback, yes Ridley was a fullback at one point but Id give Hester the edge. No, Ridley doesn't have soft hands either. Around 60 receiving yards last year 5.5 yards per catch. The only reason why he was picked is because the Patriots are filled with smaller guys, Bellicheck wanted a bigger back that can just plow forward and get 2 to 3 yards on a short yard situation, which is what is skillset is best suited for. To expect anything more from him is being ridiculous. Yeah Bellicheck couldve gotten him later, but he has so many picks I don't think it matters. Btw I wouldn't be surprised to see him lined up at fullback either.

BTW the Pats only have recently had success with the draft. Yes we don't get paid but the guys that do make mistake all the time and I have seen people on here call it. They have a good draft strategy though, just pick a ton of players realizing that no matter how hard you scout, there is still the chance the player busts. Their success rate at picks isn't much higher than other teams, they just have more picks, so if they hit on 50 percent, they will have more players than a team that hit 50 percent on 6 picks.

[niel89]

I don't get how Marvin Austin (who is a bad football player) is a steal in the second round. He has not done a thing in college to even earn that pick. If being lazy, unproductive, and being a year removed from competetive football is a steal in the second round, I need to reevaluate how to analyze prospects I guess.
I somewhat agree with you, its not as big of a steal as people are saying. I think that its pure projection. He has great measurable and people get excited about that. If he can put those numbers to work on the field at the next level has yet to be seen but he could be an impact player.

[SchizophrenicBatman]

I don't see how Henery is a reach. The 4th round is when the best kickers go and with the way the CBA mess is if you don't get a good kicker (and he's the only one in this draft) you're pretty much screwed

[PossibleCabbage]

The reason I think the Henery pick is a reach is that I don't think Henery is significantly better than Kai Forbath, to be honest, and Forbath didn't even get drafted. Instead of Henery in the fourth you could have had Forbath in the 7th.

[T-RICH49]

I loved Justin Houston to the Chiefs in the 3rd. Gabe Miller in the 5th not so much.

loved the Stanzi pick as well

[SchizophrenicBatman]

The reason I think the Henery pick is a reach is that I don't think Henery is significantly better than Kai Forbath, to be honest, and Forbath didn't even get drafted. Instead of Henery in the fourth you could have had Forbath in the 7th.

Well I'm going to have to go ahead and strongly disagree there

[49erNation85]

Colin Kaperanick , Was a big reach for SF In round two specially for moving up ugh, I just hope works out though more so then A.Smith coming back.

[the natural]

How about Jeremy Beal in the seventh round? He had the same career stats, at a similar position, in the same conference, as the Broncos top pick (#2 overall) Von Miller. Either one of them is great value or one is a great reach.

[DenverFan1974]

Colin Kaperanick , Was a big reach for SF In round two specially for moving up ugh, I just hope works out though more so then A.Smith coming back.

I'd agree if there weren't other suitors (Miami, Washington, Oakland). Reports are SF tried to move into the late 1st for Kaepernick and Oakland tried to move up in the first and with NE beginning of the 2nd.

I think it is very telling what Harbaugh thinks of him, passing on Gabbert and moving up 9 spots and three picks to get him. He sees something he likes.

[prock]

I somewhat agree with you, its not as big of a steal as people are saying. I think that its pure projection. He has great measurable and people get excited about that. If he can put those numbers to work on the field at the next level has yet to be seen but he could be an impact player.

He could, but it definitely is NOT a steal. All he is is a work out warrior who has done nothing but disappoint on the field. These players drop every year, and the ones who do didn't miss an entire year of football. I just don't get how he even went in the second.

[Chargerfn909]

Worst pick of the draft from a value standpoint. It reminds me of the reach for Jacob Hester at the top of Round 3 in 2008.

Hester was pretty damn bad. -- We will see!

[JustDezIT]

How did Dwayne Harris not make your value list? Thats crazy talk. And no, this isn't the homer in me...

[armageddon]

Rams getting Quinn at #14 and WR Salas in the 4th are great values.

[D-Unit]

Josh Thomas on the undervalued list? Cool.

As for Jamie Harper, I actually like the player. Think he runs hard. A nice "Thunder" to Chris Johnson's "Lightning".

[ChiefMojo]

Beal was a HUGE steal for the Broncos. His big knock is his speed for sure, but from a pure talent/production aspect he is top notch. Kind of this years version of last years Florida LB (Spikes).

[CrankthatCrabtree]

How did Dwayne Harris not make your value list? Thats crazy talk. And no, this isn't the homer in me...

...yes it is. Dwayne Harris went where he should have

[JustDezIT]

...yes it is. Dwayne Harris went where he should have

No, he didn't.

[prock]

...yes it is. Dwayne Harris went where he should have

No, he didn't.

Good thing both of you offered up facts to back up your baseless opinions. What a ******** argument. "Nah ah!!" "Yeah huh!!"

[CrankthatCrabtree]

http://www.draftcountdown.com/ScoutingReports/WR/Dwayne-Harris.php

He was projected to go in the midrounds here by Scott Wright. I would say going at the 11th pick of the 6th round just about fits that bill.

Of course prock, you could have looked that up yourself instead of just trying to be a troll

[prock]

http://www.draftcountdown.com/ScoutingReports/WR/Dwayne-Harris.php

He was projected to go in the midrounds here by Scott Wright. I would say going at the 11th pick of the 6th round just about fits that bill.

Of course prock, you could have looked that up yourself instead of just trying to be a troll

I have read that. But apparently you think that everything Scott says is fact, so you don't form opinions of your own. So instead of just citing Scott's scouting report, why don't you form your own opinion, maybe use a draftnik like Scott's opinion as a starting point, and back it up instead of getting in little girl banters that make everyone on this forum feel dumber?

[49erNation85]

I'd agree if there weren't other suitors (Miami, Washington, Oakland). Reports are SF tried to move into the late 1st for Kaepernick and Oakland tried to move up in the first and with NE beginning of the 2nd.

I think it is very telling what Harbaugh thinks of him, passing on Gabbert and moving up 9 spots and three picks to get him. He sees something he likes.


Yea I'm with you I just don't see it yet.I just hope it works out because time does tell the truth about spread QB 's.Maybe he did see some good football IQ in him some what.The only reason I like the pick is because I didn't like Gabbert either in hind site maybe they should of drafted him first then a DE in second round I dunno. So we'll see how mini camps go and pre season.I do think though if CK can make the transition he could be a good QB.

[CrankthatCrabtree]

I have read that. But apparently you think that everything Scott says is fact, so you don't form opinions of your own. So instead of just citing Scott's scouting report, why don't you form your own opinion, maybe use a draftnik like Scott's opinion as a starting point, and back it up instead of getting in little girl banters that make everyone on this forum feel dumber?

Wow, the guy went exactly where Scott projected and he didn't went end up on Scott's "values" list. Whoddathunkit?

[prock]

Wow, the guy went exactly where Scott projected and he didn't went end up on Scott's "values" list. Whoddathunkit?

Which was not even in the same ballpark as my point, but nice strawman.

[CrankthatCrabtree]

Which was not even in the same ballpark as my point, but nice strawman.

:/

you criticized me for saying that it was not where Harris was projected to go. You then criticized me for showing Scotts ranking. Your criticisms are just idiocy....instead of just acting all high and mighty you should consider adding your own points the conversation, but clearly you have no interest in doing so.

[prock]

:/

you criticized me for saying that it was not where Harris was projected to go. You then criticized me for showing Scotts ranking. Your criticisms are just idiocy....instead of just acting all high and mighty you should consider adding your own points the conversation, but clearly you have no interest in doing so.

Actually I criticized you and the other guy for having a mindless debate. And then I criticized you for using Scott as your sole evidence, instead of having an actual opinion. I would add my own points to the conversation but to a conversation as mindless and baseless as the one you were having, my point would have been the first to be made, so clearly I had no interest in doing so.

[CrankthatCrabtree]

Actually I criticized you and the other guy for having a mindless debate. And then I criticized you for using Scott as your sole evidence, instead of having an actual opinion. I would add my own points to the conversation but to a conversation as mindless and baseless as the one you were having, my point would have been the first to be made, so clearly I had no interest in doing so.

As a member of the DC community I would assume that you actually support the owner of this site and read his material and projections and the such. Didn't think it was neccesary to post a link for that. The conversation was also two posts long. So instead of contributing to the thread you just decide to act like ******* run the place(when you don't even support the owner). It is laughable and obnoxious. Next time you should just keep your toughts to yourself.

[umphrey]

It wouldn't be right if we didn't have at least 1 'reach'. Our 'reaches' tend to outperform our 'values' by a large margin - see values Jamon Meredith, Brian Brohm, Abdul Hodge; reaches James Jones, Nick Collins.

[prock]

As a member of the DC community I would assume that you actually support the owner of this site and read his material and projections and the such. Didn't think it was neccesary to post a link for that. The conversation was also two posts long. So instead of contributing to the thread you just decide to act like ******* run the place(when you don't even support the owner). It is laughable and obnoxious. Next time you should just keep your toughts to yourself.

I do support the owner. I highly respect his opinion. I read most of his scouting reports. But I form my own opinions. But again, that is no where near the point. Even though I have clearly pointed out what I my point is, you have continuously wiffed, even when you don't have to interpret the argument.

[thebow305]

Loved the Ed Gates pick in the 4th. Glad to see him on your value side!

[RWills]

[QUOTE=batsandgats;2594368]BTW the Pats only have recently had success with the draft.QUOTE]

I would think the Pats have been one of the best teams in the draft for the past dozen years..... recently?

[SchizophrenicBatman]

It wouldn't be right if we didn't have at least 1 'reach'. Our 'reaches' tend to outperform our 'values' by a large margin - see values Jamon Meredith, Brian Brohm, Abdul Hodge; reaches James Jones, Nick Collins.

In fairness, Rodgers has turned out to be pretty much the only "value" QB that wasn't complete garbage

[Iamcanadian]

Beal was a HUGE steal for the Broncos. His big knock is his speed for sure, but from a pure talent/production aspect he is top notch. Kind of this years version of last years Florida LB (Spikes).

Please, he got eaten alive at the Senior Bowl practices. The only steal about him is that he got drafted at all.

[LickaMahfeetz]

Why was Matthews still on the board in the 7th? I want to feel like the Falcons got a major steal there, but even they passed him up 20 picks earlier, despite the need at DE.
Don't put too much stock into it. The Rams drafted three DE's last year and George Selvie was the last one in the late 7th. He was by far and away the best one of the bunch.

[Abaddon]

How did Oakland taking DVD not make the crap list?

[onejayhawk]

Considering where Allen Bailey was on the Best Available list, I am a bit surprised he was not on the Best Value list.

I loved Justin Houston to the Chiefs in the 3rd. Gabe Miller in the 5th not so much.

I love both. In fact I mocked Gabe Miller to the Chiefs, although in round 6. GM is one of those high charater leader types that Pioli loves, as well as being a physical freak. In spite of only 8 career sacks, this guy will bring it from the edge.

Check the Combine numbers, particularly the shuttle, 3 cone and (40 - shuttle) time. even better, try comparing Shuttle - 10 yard split among OLB. Once he learns the position, he will be really sudden as a pass rusher. With Houston and Hali, that will give them one sudden, one explosive and one high effort technician, pretty much the whole range.

I also love the "Fear the Beard" story. OSU players went a month without shaving. They went undefeated. The idea was Miller's, and he got the team to go along with it.

J

[Wodwo]

I tend to agree in regards to calling late rounders reaches. However the guys that I included were not expected to be selected by vast majority of teams, which is why they made the list.

So... you're reaching on your reaches. Heh.

Why isn't Kendall Hunter a value pick? The 49ers drafted him a full round after your mock had them picking him.

Good Job on that projection, BTW. Even if it was a "reach" in your mock. Hehe....

This draft was fun. Lots of surprise picks and "reaches" or "values". It'll be fun to see how things work out.

[cajuncorey]

love how a guy draft at #250 (curtis holcomb) is considered a "reach".

[bucfan12]

Biggest Reach in the Draft:

Cam Newton, 1 overall

[gpngc]

I thought Jarrett at #54 was just about where he should have gone. I was a little surprised the Eagles were the team to take him, but I always thought he'd be the 2nd pure S off the board...

[onejayhawk]

In fairness, Rodgers has turned out to be pretty much the only "value" QB that wasn't complete garbage

Drew Brees?

J

[ShockTreatment]

How did Jordan Todman not make the value list? The guy was a 3rd rounder who went in the 6th.

[Monomach]

Your own rankings have Paea over Austin.

Your top values list has Austin on it, but not Paea, who was taken a pick later.

Therefore, your list is a joke.

[JHL6719]

Word is Jimmy "the reach" Wilson has been tearing it up in Dolphins camp, and looks like an easy lock for the final roster.

[underscore]

Todman doesn't strike me as a guy who will be anything more than a Darren Sproles type.

[onejayhawk]

Todman doesn't strike me as a guy who will be anything more than a Darren Sproles type.

Getting Darren Sproles in the 6th is great value. Consider Dexter McLuster--round 2.

J

[redbills]

Johnny White has looked good in TC so far. Guy can do a bit of everything.