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MI_Buckeye
05-14-2011, 07:12 PM
Hey guys. I know it has been a while since my last review. I went in for oral surgery earlier this week and it did not go smoothly. I have been hopped up on Vicoden all week, and I hope to get through some more reviews the next couple days. It's Niners time.

San Francisco 49ers

Where did the franchise stand before the draft:

After over twenty years of fielding consistently excellent football teams, the Niners have had major issues since getting rid of TO and Jeff Garcia after the 2003 season. They have been one of the league's most consistently bad teams, with scheduled picks in the top 11 six of the past seven years.

Despite having a number of quality pieces including Patrick Willis and fantasy monster Frank Gore, San Fran has managed to run through countless coordinators and two head coaches that I believe can still succeed in the league in Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary. This team has plenty of talented players, and every year seem to be a projected dark horse to make a run into the playoffs.

So why hasn't it all come together? Well, it would be too simple to say it is all because of QB, but you would be on the right track. Like many nepotistic organizations, the second generation of the Debartolos known as the Yorks (living the American dream, marrying into wealth and power) have not been nearly as efficient in running their organization. Generally they have been average at best in the front office, but now they do have a chance to make some noise, especially since the NFC West is so weak.

Despite needs in the secondary and for pass rushers, QB remained the No.1 point of emphasis for the franchise, and who better to help than new Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. Epic 2005 bust and current free agent Alex Smith inexplicably remains the likely starting QB after six truly forgettable seasons bouncing back and forth from the starting position. With no labor agreement in place, the Niners needed to get a QB out of this draft and also needed desperately to find some way of slowing down opposing passing games.

The Picks

Round One, Pick 7: Aldon Smith, OLB, MIssouri

With all but one QB there for the taking, Harbaugh and GM Trent Baalke decided they would rather wait and take one of the draft's most dyanmic athletes at a premium position.

In spite of the coaching change, Harbaugh brought Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio with his from Stanford, meaning the Niners will maintain a base 3-4 front. There was much debate over whether Smith fit better in a 3-4 or a 4-3, but at nearly 6-6 with a velociraptor-like wingspan and underrated fluidity, Smith is highly capable of playing in space. He may not be the best at taking on blocks in the running game but with his range, he should keep teams from exploiting the perimeter running game.

Of course, the reason he went this highly is because he is gifted at getting after the QB. When healthy, he has put up monster sack numbers and has even made his presence felt when playing at far less then 100 percent, so you know he is tough enough to play for Jim Harbaugh.

He was used like a queen in chess at Missouri, playing all across the defensive line and even standing up on a number of occasions. It will be exciting to see how creative Fangio gets with such an uber-talented athlete.

Like I have said in many of my reviews so far, I don't agree with passing on Blaine Gabbert, but if they didn't like him or any of the other QBs taken in the first round, they had no business taking one.

Round Two, Pick 36 (from Denver): Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada

Instead of taking QB round one, they wait and get a high-end developmental QB with great intangibles. Now, I'm not the biggest fan of drafting QBs in the second round. My thought is that if a QB isn't good enough for you to take above all other areas of need, you don't need to make him your QB of the future.

Kaepernick is an interesting caase study though. Coming from an option-based offense run out of the quirky Pistol formation, Kaepernick is obviously raw but so immensely talented physically and such a good kid that it just might work out.

Kaepernick is one of the best players in college football history (no I am not exaggerating here), but is extremely raw with no idea of pro fundamentals. He is a very long-term project who the Niners have to have a well thought-out plan with and stick to it no matter how ugly the 2011 season becomes. It might be hard to keep him on the bench if Alex Smith and David Carr are the only other options.

Round Three, Pick 80 (from Jacksonville): Chris Culliver, CB, South Carolina

This was one of the surprise picks of Day Two. After watching the abyss that was the Gamecocks' secondary last season, it would be hard for me to think of too much positive to say about this pick.

Culliver is a big CB who made his money at the Combine, and while Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer aren't an ideal starting tandem, I don't think they have much to worry about in the way of Culliver. Just a really strange pick, at least three rounds too high.

Round Four, Pick 115 (from San Diego): Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State
I'm not the biggest Kendall Hunter fan on this site, but this is decent value. Hunter runs a LOT bigger than his size would indicate he ought to and was wildly productive in Dana Holgoersen's wide-open system at OSU. He doesn't have a ton of shake in his game, and I wonder how durable he'll be at size with his game.

As a rookie, Hunter will compete with Anthony Dixon as the No. 2 RB and should contribute as the primary third-and-long back. He is a willing blocker but only an average pass catcher.

Round Five, Pick 163 (from Green Bay): Daniel Kilgore, OG, Appalachian State

Kilgore is an absolute meat grinder with underrated athleticism. There is virtually no finesse to his game at all at this point, but I think he can be developed. Should be an effective reserve and scout team player until he improves to the point he can crack the lineup.

Round Six, Pick 182 (from Jacksonville): Ronald Johnson, WR, USC

One of the most decorated high school players to ever come out of West Michigan where I grew up, Johnson has terrific speed and showed game-breaking potential at USC. A collar bone injury wiped out most of his junior season, and future first rounder Robert Woods came on as the No. 1 this season, but Johnson can really play. He is far from the most-polished receiver, but he is dangerous with the ball in his hands and is very good in the return game. I say total steal, but of course I am biased. He murdered us in high school.

Round Six, Pick 190 (from Seattle): Colin Jones, S, TCU

Jones was a good player in college who is a bit one-dimensional right now as an in-the-box safety. He is really good in kick and punt coverage, and that is probably why he was drafted.

Round Seven, Pick 211: Bruce Miller, Football Player, UCF

Apparently, the plan is to take one of the NCAA's most productive defensive players last season and turn him into a sledge-hammer of a fullback. It's worked for Harbaugh before. Whatever happens Bruce Miller will have made his mark on the 49ers.

Round Seven, Pick 239: Michael Person, OT, Montana State

Round Seven, Pick 250: Curtis Holcomb, CB, Florida A&M

Hate to say it, but I know nothing about either one of these guys.

All in all:

In spite of passing on a potential franchise QB and the truly bizarre Chris Culliver pick, I really liked this draft. I think Aldon Smith is going to become one of the best pass rushers in the league. There is enough there with Kaepernick to justify that selection, and if he works out, then the Niners will likely have hit a bonanza with their first two selections.

They did a great job of adding special teams value on day three, and at every point in the draft, they added tough guys who will fit in with a demanding head coach. In a few years time, I think Johnson and Miller will look like supreme steals.

Final Draft Grade: B+

PossibleCabbage
05-14-2011, 07:17 PM
I think you're understating the level of coaching that Kaepernick has received and internalized in his time at Nevada. Chris Ault is an excellent coach and an excellent coach of quarterbacks especially. Kaepernick's game certainly isn't complete, but I think it's much more complete than you're willing to give him credit for. In terms of recognition, reading coverages, and decision-making he's well ahead of guys like Newton, Gabbert, and Locker. He is, however, still a project.

I definitely agree with you that he's one of the best college QBs in history though.

MI_Buckeye
05-14-2011, 07:30 PM
I think you're understating the level of coaching that Kaepernick has received and internalized in his time at Nevada. Chris Ault is an excellent coach and an excellent coach of quarterbacks especially. Kaepernick's game certainly isn't complete, but I think it's much more complete than you're willing to give him credit for. In terms of recognition, reading coverages, and decision-making he's well ahead of guys like Newton, Gabbert, and Locker. He is, however, still a project.

I definitely agree with you that he's one of the best college QBs in history though.

I completely understand your point and yes, Ault is an excellent QB coach. However, with the way they ran their offense during Kaepernick's time in Reno, the passing game was never that sophistocated. With Kaepernick's athleticism and all the talent they had in the backfield, they were wise to run the ball, and since they were so effective, the passing game was always there fo them, as they usually saw eight or nine men in the box.

At the Senior Bowl, I think we all saw Kaepernick still has a ways to go.

phlysac
05-14-2011, 09:57 PM
Decent write up! +rep.

I don't have any serious issues with any of it other than the Anti-Alex Smith tenor it had. Alot of fans share your opinion, however. I guess I just don't know what I'm missing. I see an average quarterback AT WORST, not an "epic bust. but that's old-hat. If one is to consider Harbaugh's history with quarterbacks both in working with them (Josh Johnson, Andrew Luck) as well as evaluating them (high grades on Romo and Garrard, low grades on Harrington and Carr) as to a positive sign for Kaeperinick, they should also consider that for Smith. Harbaugh supposedly loves him. We'll see how that transpires.

As for Chris Culliver...

This pick shocked most 49ers fans as well as most draftniks. All I can say is that new 49ers DBs Coach Ed Donatell personally worked with and met the majority of draftable DBs on their board and he and Baalke seemed to think Culliver was the guy. Let's see.

Hunter... Guess I just like him more than you but your analysis was good.

Ronald Johnson... His RAC and relationship with new 49ers WR Coach John Morton could be a great asset in Harbaugh's WCO. Morton reportedly had alot of pull on this pick.

Colin Jones... You nailed the ST aspect. He'll likely be the #4 or #5 S but he could see the field sooner as a dime LBer per reports. The word from Baalke is they see All-Pro ST potential, and that was, indeed the priority for the pick.

Ive read good things about Person and Holcomb, but like you I was very unfamiliar. The big-selling point on Curtis Holcolmb is that he was a 4-year team captain at Florida A&M which speaks volumes for his respect as a leader both on the field and off.


Again, great right up.

49ersfan_87
05-15-2011, 12:34 PM
I like the strategy of the first 2 rounds. Harbaugh has a history of recognizing and coaching/developing QB talent and is supposed to be a "QB whisperer", so we might as well take advantage of it and take a high upside, high character potential franchise QB in Round 2 while adding an impact defender Round 1. If he's as good a QB coach as he is expected to be than he should be able to develop a QB outside of Round 1. Whether he is good enough to do that as an NFL HC of course remains to be seen, but a good teacher with a willing and gifted student could lead to much success down the road. I'm excited to see what happens.


I think you're understating the level of coaching that Kaepernick has received and internalized in his time at Nevada. Chris Ault is an excellent coach and an excellent coach of quarterbacks especially. Kaepernick's game certainly isn't complete, but I think it's much more complete than you're willing to give him credit for. In terms of recognition, reading coverages, and decision-making he's well ahead of guys like Newton, Gabbert, and Locker. He is, however, still a project.

I definitely agree with you that he's one of the best college QBs in history though.

How soon do you think he could start? Our GM speculated we might start him off in some Tebow like packages, of course he is competing to start and could outright win the competition, but its more likely he's the backup.


At the Senior Bowl, I think we all saw Kaepernick still has a ways to go.

Didn't Kaepernick have a really good week of Senior Bowl practices? I remember in January reading a ton of articles that his stock had rosen substantially because he showed an ability to drop back under center.

MI_Buckeye
05-15-2011, 05:13 PM
Didn't Kaepernick have a really good week of Senior Bowl practices? I remember in January reading a ton of articles that his stock had rosen substantially because he showed an ability to drop back under center.

Yeah, he really impressed people with his physical tools and intelligence, but his footwork was sloppy and his accuracy was inconsistent. While it might not matter much, his performance in the game left a lot to be desired.

domingo
05-15-2011, 11:25 PM
Just to play the What If game--What if the 49ers had drafted Hunter in the third and Culliver in the fourth, assuming that he would have been available? Would their draft look a little better?

Iamcanadian
05-16-2011, 10:38 AM
For me, the 49ers broke the 'Golden Rule' 'if you don't have a franchise QB, grab one when you have a shot'
Say what you want about taking a QB in round 2 but the odds say only about 6% of them succeed and that isn't the chance I would take if I'm looking to be a SB contender.
It reminds me of the 10 teams that passed on Roethlisber only to see him lead Pittsburgh to 2 SB's.
If any one of Locker, Gabbert or Ponder develop, worse yet, if all three prove to be winners, this draft will go down as a huge failure for San Fran.

phlysac
05-16-2011, 12:13 PM
For me, the 49ers broke the 'Golden Rule' 'if you don't have a franchise QB, grab one when you have a shot'.

You've forgotten the most important aspect of that philosophy...

"IF ONE IS AVAILABLE"

They evidently, as well as several other teams, didn't view the top QBS very highly.

The interesting thing to me, is that although a large number if not the large majority of armchair draftniks and "experts" alike believed that the QB class was pretty weak at the top. If that's the case then you can't turn around and view the teams that passed on these "weak" QBs in a negative light.

The whole "Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, etc. just aren't top-ranked QBs, but Team A and Team B are stupid for not drafting them" makes ZERO sense to me.

Iamcanadian
05-16-2011, 12:47 PM
You've forgotten the most important aspect of that philosophy...

"IF ONE IS AVAILABLE"

They evidently, as well as several other teams, didn't view the top QBS very highly.

The interesting thing to me, is that although a large number if not the large majority of armchair draftniks and "experts" alike believed that the QB class was pretty weak at the top. If that's the case then you can't turn around and view the teams that passed on these "weak" QBs in a negative light.

The whole "Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, etc. just aren't top-ranked QBs, but Team A and Team B are stupid for not drafting them" makes ZERO sense to me.

The strength of a QB class is decided on draft day not by draftniks or so called experts. GM's decide when they make their 1st round picks how good a class it is. When 4 QB's go in the top 12 picks, it indicates to me that the QB class was excellent and the teams that failed to take advantage of it, were foolish.
It takes on average 3 years to get top level production out of a QB, sometimes 4(see Eli), so when a GM puts off drafting a QB in round 1, he is putting that process on hold and practically guaranteeing that it will be at least 4 more seasons before that team can be competitive.
Putting you eggs into a 6% chance of a 2nd round QB panning out, worse yet, it suggests they will give him some time to develop and put off the finding of a franchise QB who can be productive, to around 6 or 7 years if the 2nd round QB is a failure as 96% of them are.
For me, San Fran draft stunk on draft day, they played it safe which is a sure fire recipe for mediocrity. I should know being a Detroit, Buffalo and Cleveland fan. I've seen it all before just too many times.

PossibleCabbage
05-16-2011, 01:04 PM
The strength of a QB class is decided on draft day not by draftniks or so called experts. GM's decide when they make their 1st round picks how good a class it is. When 4 QB's go in the top 12 picks, it indicates to me that the QB class was excellent and the teams that failed to take advantage of it, were foolish.

This is not a normal year. Were teams able to go through a normal free agency period, guys like Bulger, McNabb, Kolb, and maybe even Flynn or Young would have found their way to QB-needy teams. In that situation, there's absolutely no way that you get these four QBs going as high as they did. Since teams were unable to get the QB for now through normal channels, teams were forced to go after the "QB of the future" more aggressively than usual.

I think we should really wait to judge the QB class for a few years and see how well these guys actually play. It's just as likely that this was a weak class whose stock was greatly elevated by the lockout as it is that this turns out to be an excellent QB class.

Borat
05-16-2011, 03:06 PM
I can't stand that "golden rule" BS. Why the **** would you pay twice as much for an asset that you could get for half that price? That is just silly.

Shane P. Hallam
05-16-2011, 03:24 PM
The strength of a QB class is decided on draft day not by draftniks or so called experts. GM's decide when they make their 1st round picks how good a class it is. When 4 QB's go in the top 12 picks, it indicates to me that the QB class was excellent and the teams that failed to take advantage of it, were foolish.

So, that makes 1999 an absolutely amazing QB class? The strength of a QB class is decided by the talent of the quarterbacks, not where they are picked. If 3 of these 4 are busts, then it was not an excellent QB class.

FlyingElvis
05-16-2011, 03:33 PM
I'd be happier with Kaepernick in the second than Gabbert in the first if I were a 49ers fan. But I also think the Vikings will be the only team to end up with a "Franchise QB" from this draft.

Posted from my armchair. :)

VAfy-ya
05-16-2011, 04:15 PM
This is not a normal year. Were teams able to go through a normal free agency period, guys like Bulger, McNabb, Kolb, and maybe even Flynn or Young would have found their way to QB-needy teams. In that situation, there's absolutely no way that you get these four QBs going as high as they did. Since teams were unable to get the QB for now through normal channels, teams were forced to go after the "QB of the future" more aggressively than usual.

I think we should really wait to judge the QB class for a few years and see how well these guys actually play. It's just as likely that this was a weak class whose stock was greatly elevated by the lockout as it is that this turns out to be an excellent QB class.

Excatly. In a normal year where free agency happens BEFORE the draft, there's no way all 4 of those QBs go in the first. And the fact we were trying to trade back into the end of the first to grab Kaepernick proves we did have him with a first round grade and that we were very high on him. We were just VERY fortuate to move up in the second and he was still there. I'm willing to bet Kaepernick was the #1 QB on our board so we got our guy in the end.

As far as the rest of the draft goes, I thought it was solid. I know Im in the minority but I liked Culliver alot. I had him as the #3 FS on my board so I was well aware of him. I didn't think he looked great at CB but I also understand he only played 7 games there before he got shelved due to injury so he's a project but I like his instincts, ability and phyiscality in run support, as well as his recovery speed. I thought the third was maybe a round too early, but I believe if you really like a guy in your scheme, you go get him. And its obviously we thought very highly of him.

Thought Hunter and Johnson were great picks. Liked the Kilgore pick. Very versatile guy who I think will exceed inside at the next level. My only problem is we neglected the NT position for the second draft in a row. But if the value wasn't what we would have liked when we were on the clock than I guess I can live with it.

phlysac
05-16-2011, 05:15 PM
For me, San Fran draft stunk on draft day, they played it safe which is a sure fire recipe for mediocrity.

It is VERY interesting that you call their draft "safe" when most people believe they "reached" for high-ceiling guys. Smith and Kaepernick were both consider Boom or Bust type guys that they reached a little for. Culliver is an athlete that many believed they reached alot for. The two linemen they drafted were from small schools who will make the transition from OT to interior line and their FB was a college DE.

Aside from the Kendall Hunter pick, I don't see much in this draft that can be considered "safe."

PossibleCabbage
05-16-2011, 05:22 PM
It is VERY interesting that you call their draft "safe" when most people believe they "reached" for high-ceiling guys.

That Aldon Smith pick is anything but safe, IMO. It's a guy who could turn out to be the next Demarcus Ware, but just as easily be a player who's not suited to playing in the 3-4 defense. If they were playing it safe, they could have taken a lower ceiling/higher floor guy. The 49ers must have been really high on him, because from a 3-4 OLB perspective I was pretty nervous about Smith.

Iamcanadian
05-17-2011, 11:51 AM
It is VERY interesting that you call their draft "safe" when most people believe they "reached" for high-ceiling guys. Smith and Kaepernick were both consider Boom or Bust type guys that they reached a little for. Culliver is an athlete that many believed they reached alot for. The two linemen they drafted were from small schools who will make the transition from OT to interior line and their FB was a college DE.

Aside from the Kendall Hunter pick, I don't see much in this draft that can be considered "safe."

I don't happen to think Smith was a reach, he was a top 10 talent for me and I guess for San Fran. Second round QB's are always a reach considering only approx 6% of them have any success.

Iamcanadian
05-17-2011, 11:55 AM
So, that makes 1999 an absolutely amazing QB class? The strength of a QB class is decided by the talent of the quarterbacks, not where they are picked. If 3 of these 4 are busts, then it was not an excellent QB class.

On draft day players are ranked as prospects not sure fire success stories and in 1999, 4 got a high rating.
Of course, the true test of any draft comes 3 to 5 years down the road as far as a prospects ability to adjust to the pro game, but that isn't what counts on draft day since nobody can measure the future.

Iamcanadian
05-17-2011, 11:59 AM
I can't stand that "golden rule" BS. Why the **** would you pay twice as much for an asset that you could get for half that price? That is just silly.

Yeah, I suppose you can take the odds of 6% or less to try and find your franchise QB by waiting till round 2 or lower, of course it may take 20 years or longer to get lucky but what the h-ll, fans don't mind waiting that long for success.

Iamcanadian
05-17-2011, 12:05 PM
This is not a normal year. Were teams able to go through a normal free agency period, guys like Bulger, McNabb, Kolb, and maybe even Flynn or Young would have found their way to QB-needy teams. In that situation, there's absolutely no way that you get these four QBs going as high as they did. Since teams were unable to get the QB for now through normal channels, teams were forced to go after the "QB of the future" more aggressively than usual.

I think we should really wait to judge the QB class for a few years and see how well these guys actually play. It's just as likely that this was a weak class whose stock was greatly elevated by the lockout as it is that this turns out to be an excellent QB class.

We won't be able to judge whether you are right or not till at least 3 or 4 years from now.
NFLN crew said there were 7 or 8 1st and 2nd round TALENTS in the 2011 draft, so the reach wasn't as great as people are making out.
It is easy to assume that teams may have reached because of the lockout but in truth, we will never know that even if they all succeed or fail. All I can go by is the FACT that 4 QB's went in the first 12 picks. If say 5 of the DE's fail, do we say teams reached for them or that they just didn't reach their potential and never adjusted to the next level?

RaiderNation
05-17-2011, 12:12 PM
I know Aldon Smith was thought highly over by alot of teams, but I personally dont think he was worth the #7 pick in this draft. Quinn IMO would have been a stud 3-4 OLB(and will still be a pro bowl type 4-3 DE for the Rams), and he should have been the pick for SF. I'm not saying Smith will be a bust, but Quinn was the better prospect.

Kaepernick is going to need alot of work, but if there's a coach that can teach him it is Harbaugh. Hopefully the 9ers can get a vet(other than Alex Smith) to play this year, because if they throw Kaepernick in early I see some bad things happening.

Culliver was a reach in the 3rd, but his size/speed combination gives him a chance to get a starter in the NFL. I like the RJ pick in the late round as well, and he should help early in his career.

Iamcanadian
05-17-2011, 12:26 PM
I know Aldon Smith was thought highly over by alot of teams, but I personally dont think he was worth the #7 pick in this draft. Quinn IMO would have been a stud 3-4 OLB(and will still be a pro bowl type 4-3 DE for the Rams), and he should have been the pick for SF. I'm not saying Smith will be a bust, but Quinn was the better prospect.

Kaepernick is going to need alot of work, but if there's a coach that can teach him it is Harbaugh. Hopefully the 9ers can get a vet(other than Alex Smith) to play this year, because if they throw Kaepernick in early I see some bad things happening.

Culliver was a reach in the 3rd, but his size/speed combination gives him a chance to get a starter in the NFL. I like the RJ pick in the late round as well, and he should help early in his career.

I believe that Smith was viewed as better able to make the switch to OLB in a 3-4 than Quinn. Add in Quinn brain tumour worries which could easily equate to a short career and Smith becomes the far better choice for the 49ers.

PossibleCabbage
05-17-2011, 12:49 PM
NFLN crew said there were 7 or 8 1st and 2nd round TALENTS in the 2011 draft, so the reach wasn't as great as people are making out.

Just at QB or between all positions? Since if it's all positions, that's an awfully weak draft.

But the thing is, too, that you don't get drafted just on your talent/ceiling you get drafted on the basis of your expected production/floor. The guys that go high annually are the guys who are projected to have a high talent ceiling and will probably get close to it. Guys who go later are guys with a high ceiling, but it's uncertain if you'll ever get anywhere close to that or guys who have a high floor but will never be stars. Newton, Gabbert, Locker, and Kaepernick are in the "could be great, may never be anything" camp while Ponder, and Dalton were in the "will never be all-pros, but will probably be competent starters" camp. There were no really clean QB prospects this year.

Iamcanadian
05-17-2011, 01:14 PM
Just at QB or between all positions? Since if it's all positions, that's an awfully weak draft.

But the thing is, too, that you don't get drafted just on your talent/ceiling you get drafted on the basis of your expected production/floor. The guys that go high annually are the guys who are projected to have a high talent ceiling and will probably get close to it. Guys who go later are guys with a high ceiling, but it's uncertain if you'll ever get anywhere close to that or guys who have a high floor but will never be stars. Newton, Gabbert, Locker, and Kaepernick are in the "could be great, may never be anything" camp while Ponder, and Dalton were in the "will never be all-pros, but will probably be competent starters" camp. There were no really clean QB prospects this year.

Just QB's.

Actually, there are no clean QB prospects in any draft, Elway was the only QB who ever was thought to be perfect on draft day. It is just too hard of an adjustment to ever be completely sure of one. "probably get close to it" is much more of a wish than draftniks understand. Actually, pro teams would probably say that 2nd and 3rd rounds picks are far more likely to "probably get close to it" than 1st rounders where ceiling is everything. Their ceiling isn't nearly as high but the floor is much higher.
I'd rate the QB as: Newton, highest ceiling in the draft; Gabbert, a notch below; Locker, suited Tennessee style as he is a carbon copy of VY in a way, they may be still confused over the whole VY episode and reached; Ponder, he is growing on me probably because I like leaders at that position and IMO, Ponder gets aces for that: Dalton, is a classic 2nd round QB(6% success rate and Brown is no genius on draft day), Kaepernick, a long range prospect for me, 3 or 4 years before he can be productive, but the ceiling is pretty high but so is the potential to be a flop.

VAfy-ya
05-17-2011, 03:23 PM
Just QB's.

Actually, there are no clean QB prospects in any draft, Elway was the only QB who ever was thought to be perfect on draft day. It is just too hard of an adjustment to ever be completely sure of one. "probably get close to it" is much more of a wish than draftniks understand. Actually, pro teams would probably say that 2nd and 3rd rounds picks are far more likely to "probably get close to it" than 1st rounders where ceiling is everything. Their ceiling isn't nearly as high but the floor is much higher.
I'd rate the QB as: Newton, highest ceiling in the draft; Gabbert, a notch below; Locker, suited Tennessee style as he is a carbon copy of VY in a way, they may be still confused over the whole VY episode and reached; Ponder, he is growing on me probably because I like leaders at that position and IMO, Ponder gets aces for that: Dalton, is a classic 2nd round QB(6% success rate and Brown is no genius on draft day), Kaepernick, a long range prospect for me, 3 or 4 years before he can be productive, but the ceiling is pretty high but so is the potential to be a flop.

See, this is where you lose me. Newton to me, has the biggest bust potential of all the QBs in the draft, not Kaepernick. If your so high on Newton, riddle me this.....what exactly is it that he does that projects to a higher ceiling then CK?

The only real knock against CK is his level of competition. Newton's one year production in a offense just as "flawed" if you will, as The Pistol makes the whole offensive system argument a non-issue. I have no problems with his throwing motion because his delivery is very quick. Phillip Rivers seems to be doing just fine with a similar awkward motion. He stated that all the teams he meet with prior to the draft said his throwing motion wasn't a problem and that they had no intentions on altering it.

But when you put on the tape, there really is no comparison at all. CK is superior in just about every way imaginable, if your talking in terms of being a pocket passer at the next level. Newton may be a harder guy to tackle but CK has all the escapility Newton does. Cam shows poise and leadership but so does CK. Kaepernick is just as athletic, has better instincts in and around the pocket and throws a better ball into tighter windows. A better 'natural' passer(ability to change arm angles to complete difficult throws) and one of the most accurate QBs I've ever seen throwing on the run....to either his right or left. One of most productive QBs ever in the history of college football, with a arm just as powerful as Cam's, yet more accurate and feet just as deadly. It amazes me people can laud all this praise on Cam and his ceiling, yet not see that CK exhibits those same traits and has the natural ability as a passer that makes him more likely to see the field earlier and succeed at the pro level. But he's more of a project? Just doesn't make sense to me.

nikkayeah
05-17-2011, 03:59 PM
so if kaepernick went in the first round, say to seattle, he would have a higher chance of being successful in the nfl? because there was some talk that they were considering him at the #25 spot.

Borat
05-17-2011, 04:21 PM
so if kaepernick went in the first round, say to seattle, he would have a higher chance of being successful in the nfl? because there was some talk that they were considering him at the #25 spot.

I was thinking the same thing. If he had been picked 4 spots earlier, then he has a chance at success? Seems kind of silly. The last 2 first round QB picks for SF have sucked. I sure as hell wouldn't draft a QB with a top ten pick if I thought I could get him at the top of the second round.

phlysac
05-17-2011, 06:16 PM
I was thinking the same thing. If he had been picked 4 spots earlier, then he has a chance at success? Seems kind of silly. The last 2 first round QB picks for SF have sucked. I sure as hell wouldn't draft a QB with a top ten pick if I thought I could get him at the top of the second round.

This is exactly it. IAC says the 49ers couldn't afford to pass on a 1st rd QB. They followed his philosophy in 2005 and they have been bashed ever since. Just because a QB is a perceived need does NOT mean you should force the pick. Doing so has crushed teams for years.

GaMeTiMe
05-18-2011, 04:55 AM
so if kaepernick went in the first round, say to seattle, he would have a higher chance of being successful in the nfl? because there was some talk that they were considering him at the #25 spot.

The 2nd round QB thing is going to be broken eventually, and it would have to be a developmental guy like Kaepernick. He probably needs more time than he's going to get before he starts though

Iamcanadian
05-18-2011, 02:41 PM
See, this is where you lose me. Newton to me, has the biggest bust potential of all the QBs in the draft, not Kaepernick. If your so high on Newton, riddle me this.....what exactly is it that he does that projects to a higher ceiling then CK?

The only real knock against CK is his level of competition. Newton's one year production in a offense just as "flawed" if you will, as The Pistol makes the whole offensive system argument a non-issue. I have no problems with his throwing motion because his delivery is very quick. Phillip Rivers seems to be doing just fine with a similar awkward motion. He stated that all the teams he meet with prior to the draft said his throwing motion wasn't a problem and that they had no intentions on altering it.


I don't know what your sources are but you do not fall to round 2 because of the system you play in nor your level of competition, that is a complete myth.
CK fell on his throwing motion and his ability to be accurate at the next level. His release is slow, I don't know where all this quick release garbage is coming from. He takes a long time to wind up and get rid of the ball.
Second, he throws a ball with little arc and doesn't change speeds very easily.
That is why he is a long range boom or bust project. Unlike Rivers CK isn't in the same league vis a vie accuracy.

But when you put on the tape, there really is no comparison at all. CK is superior in just about every way imaginable, if your talking in terms of being a pocket passer at the next level. Newton may be a harder guy to tackle but CK has all the escapility Newton does. Cam shows poise and leadership but so does CK. Kaepernick is just as athletic, has better instincts in and around the pocket and throws a better ball into tighter windows. A better 'natural' passer(ability to change arm angles to complete difficult throws) and one of the most accurate QBs I've ever seen throwing on the run....to either his right or left. One of most productive QBs ever in the history of college football, with a arm just as powerful as Cam's, yet more accurate and feet just as deadly. It amazes me people can laud all this praise on Cam and his ceiling, yet not see that CK exhibits those same traits and has the natural ability as a passer that makes him more likely to see the field earlier and succeed at the pro level. But he's more of a project? Just doesn't make sense to me.

CK has ability, solid arm great feet and can throw the ball into a tight window, however, he doesn't have better instincts, and is not a natural passer like CAM is. His deep ball is way too straight line and he will have a hard time being accurate on deep balls when he has to loft it over people to find success. In this area he has no natural instincts.
Cam has almost perfect mechanics which will only get better, he can also use his feet and throw through a tight window. However, his mechanics allow for a true quick release and he has shown the ability to adjust his throws to suit the situation, something CK can only dream about.

CK went in round 2 for a reason???? He is a long range project who may never learn how to loft a ball over defenders or to take something off the ball when necessary. However he is an impressive athlete who just might fool everybody over time, and develop some finesse with his throws and correct his throwing motion to become a star. You just never know, but don't try to compare him to the 1st round QB's who went before him in this draft, their instincts as a thrower right now, are night and day ahead of this guy and so is their mechanics. He has a long way to go to catch up in both those areas.

phlysac
05-18-2011, 03:28 PM
CK went in round 2 for a reason???? He is a long range project who may never learn how to loft a ball over defenders or to take something off the ball when necessary. However he is an impressive athlete who just might fool everybody over time, and develop some finesse with his throws and correct his throwing motion to become a star. You just never know, but don't try to compare him to the 1st round QB's who went before him in this draft, their instincts as a thrower right now, are night and day ahead of this guy and so is their mechanics. He has a long way to go to catch up in both those areas.

Completely disagree. Kaepernick's major issue is his footwork and lack of lining his feet up with the trajectory of his throws. I've seen him display more consistent touch and accuracy on his throws than both Newton and Locker and when under pressure, keeps his eyes downfield much longer than Newton, Locker, and Gabbert. Also, according to Kaepernick, every single team that interviewed him said they would NOT touch his throwing motion because, although unconventional, it isn't slow.

Iamcanadian
05-18-2011, 03:41 PM
This is exactly it. IAC says the 49ers couldn't afford to pass on a 1st rd QB. They followed his philosophy in 2005 and they have been bashed ever since. Just because a QB is a perceived need does NOT mean you should force the pick. Doing so has crushed teams for years.

I had zero problem with the Alex Smith selection and would never criticize it. They took their shot just like Indy did with Jeff George and San Diego did with Ryan Leaf etc. etc.
What I criticize is the fear to repeat a mistake by avoiding trying again. Indy tried again with Peyton and San Diego did with Rivers.
They have chosen to play it safe and as long as they do it will bite them on the ass.

bucfan12
05-18-2011, 03:50 PM
Hey guys. I know it has been a while since my last review. I went in for oral surgery earlier this week and it did not go smoothly. I have been hopped up on Vicoden all week, and I hope to get through some more reviews the next couple days. It's Niners time.

San Francisco 49ers

Where did the franchise stand before the draft:

After over twenty years of fielding consistently excellent football teams, the Niners have had major issues since getting rid of TO and Jeff Garcia after the 2003 season. They have been one of the league's most consistently bad teams, with scheduled picks in the top 11 six of the past seven years.

Despite having a number of quality pieces including Patrick Willis and fantasy monster Frank Gore, San Fran has managed to run through countless coordinators and two head coaches that I believe can still succeed in the league in Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary. This team has plenty of talented players, and every year seem to be a projected dark horse to make a run into the playoffs.

So why hasn't it all come together? Well, it would be too simple to say it is all because of QB, but you would be on the right track. Like many nepotistic organizations, the second generation of the Debartolos known as the Yorks (living the American dream, marrying into wealth and power) have not been nearly as efficient in running their organization. Generally they have been average at best in the front office, but now they do have a chance to make some noise, especially since the NFC West is so weak.

Despite needs in the secondary and for pass rushers, QB remained the No.1 point of emphasis for the franchise, and who better to help than new Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. Epic 2005 bust and current free agent Alex Smith inexplicably remains the likely starting QB after six truly forgettable seasons bouncing back and forth from the starting position. With no labor agreement in place, the Niners needed to get a QB out of this draft and also needed desperately to find some way of slowing down opposing passing games.

The Picks

Round One, Pick 7: Aldon Smith, OLB, MIssouri

With all but one QB there for the taking, Harbaugh and GM Trent Baalke decided they would rather wait and take one of the draft's most dyanmic athletes at a premium position.

In spite of the coaching change, Harbaugh brought Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio with his from Stanford, meaning the Niners will maintain a base 3-4 front. There was much debate over whether Smith fit better in a 3-4 or a 4-3, but at nearly 6-6 with a velociraptor-like wingspan and underrated fluidity, Smith is highly capable of playing in space. He may not be the best at taking on blocks in the running game but with his range, he should keep teams from exploiting the perimeter running game.

Of course, the reason he went this highly is because he is gifted at getting after the QB. When healthy, he has put up monster sack numbers and has even made his presence felt when playing at far less then 100 percent, so you know he is tough enough to play for Jim Harbaugh.

He was used like a queen in chess at Missouri, playing all across the defensive line and even standing up on a number of occasions. It will be exciting to see how creative Fangio gets with such an uber-talented athlete.

Like I have said in many of my reviews so far, I don't agree with passing on Blaine Gabbert, but if they didn't like him or any of the other QBs taken in the first round, they had no business taking one.

Round Two, Pick 36 (from Denver): Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada

Instead of taking QB round one, they wait and get a high-end developmental QB with great intangibles. Now, I'm not the biggest fan of drafting QBs in the second round. My thought is that if a QB isn't good enough for you to take above all other areas of need, you don't need to make him your QB of the future.

Kaepernick is an interesting caase study though. Coming from an option-based offense run out of the quirky Pistol formation, Kaepernick is obviously raw but so immensely talented physically and such a good kid that it just might work out.

Kaepernick is one of the best players in college football history (no I am not exaggerating here), but is extremely raw with no idea of pro fundamentals. He is a very long-term project who the Niners have to have a well thought-out plan with and stick to it no matter how ugly the 2011 season becomes. It might be hard to keep him on the bench if Alex Smith and David Carr are the only other options.

Round Three, Pick 80 (from Jacksonville): Chris Culliver, CB, South Carolina

This was one of the surprise picks of Day Two. After watching the abyss that was the Gamecocks' secondary last season, it would be hard for me to think of too much positive to say about this pick.

Culliver is a big CB who made his money at the Combine, and while Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer aren't an ideal starting tandem, I don't think they have much to worry about in the way of Culliver. Just a really strange pick, at least three rounds too high.

Round Four, Pick 115 (from San Diego): Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State
I'm not the biggest Kendall Hunter fan on this site, but this is decent value. Hunter runs a LOT bigger than his size would indicate he ought to and was wildly productive in Dana Holgoersen's wide-open system at OSU. He doesn't have a ton of shake in his game, and I wonder how durable he'll be at size with his game.

As a rookie, Hunter will compete with Anthony Dixon as the No. 2 RB and should contribute as the primary third-and-long back. He is a willing blocker but only an average pass catcher.

Round Five, Pick 163 (from Green Bay): Daniel Kilgore, OG, Appalachian State

Kilgore is an absolute meat grinder with underrated athleticism. There is virtually no finesse to his game at all at this point, but I think he can be developed. Should be an effective reserve and scout team player until he improves to the point he can crack the lineup.

Round Six, Pick 182 (from Jacksonville): Ronald Johnson, WR, USC

One of the most decorated high school players to ever come out of West Michigan where I grew up, Johnson has terrific speed and showed game-breaking potential at USC. A collar bone injury wiped out most of his junior season, and future first rounder Robert Woods came on as the No. 1 this season, but Johnson can really play. He is far from the most-polished receiver, but he is dangerous with the ball in his hands and is very good in the return game. I say total steal, but of course I am biased. He murdered us in high school.

Round Six, Pick 190 (from Seattle): Colin Jones, S, TCU

Jones was a good player in college who is a bit one-dimensional right now as an in-the-box safety. He is really good in kick and punt coverage, and that is probably why he was drafted.

Round Seven, Pick 211: Bruce Miller, Football Player, UCF

Apparently, the plan is to take one of the NCAA's most productive defensive players last season and turn him into a sledge-hammer of a fullback. It's worked for Harbaugh before. Whatever happens Bruce Miller will have made his mark on the 49ers.

Round Seven, Pick 239: Michael Person, OT, Montana State

Round Seven, Pick 250: Curtis Holcomb, CB, Florida A&M

Hate to say it, but I know nothing about either one of these guys.

All in all:

In spite of passing on a potential franchise QB and the truly bizarre Chris Culliver pick, I really liked this draft. I think Aldon Smith is going to become one of the best pass rushers in the league. There is enough there with Kaepernick to justify that selection, and if he works out, then the Niners will likely have hit a bonanza with their first two selections.

They did a great job of adding special teams value on day three, and at every point in the draft, they added tough guys who will fit in with a demanding head coach. In a few years time, I think Johnson and Miller will look like supreme steals.

Final Draft Grade: B+

Solid grade. I really love that they took Kaepernick. This kid is going to be a stud once he develops. I thought he had the potential to be the best in this class. Rocket arm, accuracy, smarts, and mobility. Kid can play and has the right coach to do it.

Aldon Smith I think is better for the 4-3 RDE. He still hasn't grown into his big frame and Robert Quinn would have been a better fit at OLB 3-4.

Culliver was a solid pick nad Kendall Hunter is a perfect compliment to Gore in the backfield.

Could turn into an A if Smith proves me wrong and Kaepernick is the franchise.

Iamcanadian
05-18-2011, 03:58 PM
Completely disagree. Kaepernick's major issue is his footwork and lack of lining his feet up with the trajectory of his throws.(Just more mechanical problems, so you don't completely disagree) I've seen him display more consistent touch and accuracy on his throws than both Newton and Locker(Locker, certainly has a long ways to go on his deep ball as well but obviously the pro scouts and GM's agree with me on Newton) and when under pressure, keeps his eyes downfield much longer than Newton, Locker, and Gabbert.(Here, these 3 QB's did what their coaches told them to do and thus pro scouts don't subtract for it, you have a lot to learn about what is good and what is bad when observing QB's).Also, according to Kaepernick, every single team that interviewed him said they would NOT touch his throwing motion because, although unconventional, it isn't slow.Then why didn't they draft him????, your forgetting 32 + teams all passed on him including teams with excellent records for assessing talent, none took him, add in that only 6% of QB's drafted in round 2 succeed and if I'm a San Fran fan, I'd be worrying.

I'm not saying CK has no talent but I'm not going to put aside his weaknesses, he is a long range prospect and he went high on his arm plus his athleticism, but there are serious flaws. His ceiling is pretty high but his floor is pretty low so that puts him in the boom or bust catagory. I'd give him a 30% chance of succeeding. Only time will tell.

VAfy-ya
05-18-2011, 05:00 PM
CK went in round 2 for a reason???? He is a long range project who may never learn how to loft a ball over defenders or to take something off the ball when necessary. However he is an impressive athlete who just might fool everybody over time, and develop some finesse with his throws and correct his throwing motion to become a star. You just never know, but don't try to compare him to the 1st round QB's who went before him in this draft, their instincts as a thrower right now, are night and day ahead of this guy and so is their mechanics. He has a long way to go to catch up in both those areas.

His mechanics need no more or no less work than Newton. Your hinging a one-sided argument based on his arc? Really? Keapernick has displayed touch and accuracy. Slow release? That's just absurd. His release is very quick, he just holds the ball further away from his body. His motion doesn't yeild a unecessary hitch nor does make him lose velocity. He holds the ball too low at times when he overstrides but that will get reppped out in time as his footwork becomes pro-level. You can't possibly sit here and tell me that Newton displays better instincts as a passer. I did not see Newton make one NFL level throw last year. The spread gave him big windows to throw through. You citing Keapernick not being able to drop a ball into a window, show me examples of Cam being able to because I honestly haven't seen it. Cam has better mechanics? No, he has a better throwing motion which alludes to better mechanics. Your whole arguement is based on CK's throwing motion and how it will hinder him but Harbaugh, who knows a thing or two about QBs, has said he wont touch his throwing motion and that he sees nothing wrong with it. So basically your gripe is that if 32 teams passed on him, his flaws are just too big so he obviously has more bust potential than the first round guys. So if he was a first round pick, would he still have this same label in your eyes? Im curious to know.....if we had succeeded in moving back into the first and grabbing him, what would your arguement then be?

the natural
05-18-2011, 07:07 PM
Gabbert and Aldon Smith were rated pretty close together in every ranking I saw. So it becomes a position choice. Evidently the 49ers felt better with Alex Smith as their starting quarterback than they did with some of their defensive linemen. I can understand that. Alex Smith was a great prospect, and hasn't been terrible as a pro, despite playing on some horrific teams. Plus he is only 26 or 27, so his best years are ahead of him.

phlysac
05-18-2011, 07:31 PM
I'm not saying CK has no talent but I'm not going to put aside his weaknesses, he is a long range prospect and he went high on his arm plus his athleticism, but there are serious flaws. His ceiling is pretty high but his floor is pretty low so that puts him in the boom or bust catagory. I'd give him a 30% chance of succeeding. Only time will tell.
So what you're saying is he's five times better than the 6% you proclaimed ad nauseum this entire thread?

Just more mechanical problems, so you don't completely disagree
Don't put words into my mouth. I do completely disagree. You said that the QBs drafted ahead of him were "night and day" better than him mechanically. That's is simply not true.

Locker, certainly has a long ways to go on his deep ball as well but obviously the pro scouts and GM's agree with me on Newton
First you say "the quarterbacks drafted ahead of him, and then you make a consolation regarding Locker. Stand by your original point and stop trying to spin it. Politician much?

Here, these 3 QB's did what their coaches told them to do and thus pro scouts don't subtract for it, you have a lot to learn about what is good and what is bad when observing QB's
Firstly, I appreciate the condescension. You don't know me at all let alone what I do or don't need to learn. But thank you for the lesson oh, great one.

It's astounding that you can utilize the umbrella of "they did what their coaches told them to do" when discussing Newton, Gabbert, and Locker but conveniently forget to apply it to QBs whom weren't drafted in the 1st round.


Then why didn't they draft him????, your forgetting 32 + teams all passed on him including teams with excellent records for assessing talent, none took him
The Patriots passed on Tom Brady 6 times. Passing on a player because you don't like them and drafting a player where your evaluation of their talent fits the value of your draft board are two entirely different things. For someone who seems to talk down to me like he knows everything, I'd have assumed you would know that.

add in that only 6% of QB's drafted in round 2 succeed and if I'm a San Fran fan, I'd be worrying.
Once again you say you believe Kaepernick has a 30% chance of succeeding so I guess that even you think more highly of him and/or his situation than a typical 2nd rounder. Also, you're not a San Fran fan, I am, and I'm not nearly as worried as you are.

Texas Homer
05-18-2011, 08:40 PM
I'd grade it as a solid (A).

I like the players that they got.

Iamcanadian
05-18-2011, 09:39 PM
His mechanics need no more or no less work than Newton. Your hinging a one-sided argument based on his arc? Really? Keapernick has displayed touch and accuracy. Slow release? That's just absurd. His release is very quick, he just holds the ball further away from his body. His motion doesn't yeild a unecessary hitch nor does make him lose velocity. He holds the ball too low at times when he overstrides but that will get reppped out in time as his footwork becomes pro-level. You can't possibly sit here and tell me that Newton displays better instincts as a passer. I did not see Newton make one NFL level throw last year. The spread gave him big windows to throw through. You citing Keapernick not being able to drop a ball into a window, show me examples of Cam being able to because I honestly haven't seen it. Cam has better mechanics? No, he has a better throwing motion which alludes to better mechanics. Your whole arguement is based on CK's throwing motion and how it will hinder him but Harbaugh, who knows a thing or two about QBs, has said he wont touch his throwing motion and that he sees nothing wrong with it. So basically your gripe is that if 32 teams passed on him, his flaws are just too big so he obviously has more bust potential than the first round guys. So if he was a first round pick, would he still have this same label in your eyes? Im curious to know.....if we had succeeded in moving back into the first and grabbing him, what would your arguement then be?

We can argue all day long on CK's mechanics but it doesn't change the fact that he was drafted in round 2 and that not even San Fran believed enough in him to protect such a solid prospect by trading back up into round 1 to ensure getting him.
You want to believe he is everything, go for it but it is obvious that 32+ teams didn't think so and not even San Fran thought enough about him to try and make an extra effort to get him in round 1.
San Fran/Harbourgh can say what they want after the draft, every team, GM and HC does, but it doesn't make it true.
Yes, I think CK has a better chance than a lot of 2nd round QB's mainly because he has a solid arm and is a good athlete, but there are flaws no matter what you claim and it is going to take a lot of work to straighten them out. I see a prospect that will need at least 3 years before he is ready to start provided he can workout his flaws. It could be even longer.
If he had been drafted in round 1, he would have had to demonstrate that his flaws are minimal, something he failed to do and that is why so many teams passed on him.
As for Newton, the main concern by scouts and GM's was his personality, you either believe he will be a team player or you believe he is 'too me" orientated, there are zero questions by pro scouts and GM's about his talent level, that is just something draftniks like to argue about.
He will either be a great QB or IMO, the worse case scenario for Newton will be, that he will be another Terrell Owens type, all pro stats but never much of a winner.
I know I cannot convince 49er's fans about CK's potential but I do have a soft spot for San Fran so this has nothing to do with hoping for the worst. It is just my opinion on CK's potential.

PossibleCabbage
05-18-2011, 09:55 PM
We can argue all day long on CK's mechanics but it doesn't change the fact that he was drafted in round 2 and that not even San Fran believed enough in him to protect such a solid prospect by trading back up into round 1 to ensure getting him.

That second round QBs generally fail is a testament to NFL front office's ability to scout quarterbacks, there's nothing magic about the second round. The only thing that make a quarterback a second round pick instead of a first round pick is "thirty-two times he's not the top player on anybody's board." Actually going in the second round doesn't mean anything more than "teams weren't convinced you're immediately studly."

Also, how on earth do you know that the 49ers weren't trying to trade back into the first round, but none of the teams at the bottom of the first were actually willing to sell their picks for anything short of highway robbery. I'll note that the only "trade back into the first round" this year cost a future first round pick and that reportedly Green Bay was nowhere close to being willing to accept an offer of #35 and #101 for #32.

"They didn't love him so much they were willing to overpay for him" isn't exactly a sonorous disendorsement.

wogitalia
05-18-2011, 11:09 PM
The strength of a QB class is decided on draft day not by draftniks or so called experts. GM's decide when they make their 1st round picks how good a class it is. When 4 QB's go in the top 12 picks, it indicates to me that the QB class was excellent and the teams that failed to take advantage of it, were foolish.

Disagree massively here. The strength of a class is determined on the field, a good 5 years down the track. We can say we think it is a strong class but you can't accurately judge that until the copy is in. I personally think it was a poor QB class that was overdrafted because of the emphasis the league is placing on QB play through rule changes. I personally had every QB in this draft graded similarly, all were late 1st to mid 2nd round prospects, all for differing reasons, but I think that the 49ers actually played it very well, they got a superior prospect(at least in their eyes) with the first and then got a guy who compares as a prospect with anyone taken before him.

If Luck had been available at their pick, then you grab him, but this draft didn't have any kind of sure thing QB prospect, it had a good 7 potential franchise guys with question marks, 49ers got one of them and an elite talent as well. Which is a much better situation than say the Vikes who got the same level of QB talent and a diminished talent in the 2nd round(we kind of got lucky in the end but point stands).

Strength of the class remains to be seen is the main point though. Most people would have said that the 2005 QB class was significantly weaker than the 2006 class at the time of the draft yet the 2005 class was actually the better class once the dust had a chance to settle.

Iamcanadian
05-19-2011, 10:34 AM
Disagree massively here. The strength of a class is determined on the field, a good 5 years down the track. We can say we think it is a strong class but you can't accurately judge that until the copy is in. I personally think it was a poor QB class that was overdrafted because of the emphasis the league is placing on QB play through rule changes. I personally had every QB in this draft graded similarly, all were late 1st to mid 2nd round prospects, all for differing reasons, but I think that the 49ers actually played it very well, they got a superior prospect(at least in their eyes) with the first and then got a guy who compares as a prospect with anyone taken before him.

If Luck had been available at their pick, then you grab him, but this draft didn't have any kind of sure thing QB prospect, it had a good 7 potential franchise guys with question marks, 49ers got one of them and an elite talent as well. Which is a much better situation than say the Vikes who got the same level of QB talent and a diminished talent in the 2nd round(we kind of got lucky in the end but point stands).

Strength of the class remains to be seen is the main point though. Most people would have said that the 2005 QB class was significantly weaker than the 2006 class at the time of the draft yet the 2005 class was actually the better class once the dust had a chance to settle.

As I said in an earlier post, there is a difference between what a draft is rated on draft day when you are talking about them as prospects and what you would rate it 5 years hence based on production.
On this draft day, 4 prospects went in the top 12 picks making this a strong QB class. What it will look like in 5 years is a totally different story.

VAfy-ya
05-19-2011, 12:23 PM
I personally think it was a poor QB class that was overdrafted because of the emphasis the league is placing on QB play through rule changes. I personally had every QB in this draft graded similarly, all were late 1st to mid 2nd round prospects, all for differing reasons, but I think that the 49ers actually played it very well, they got a superior prospect(at least in their eyes) with the first and then got a guy who compares as a prospect with anyone taken before him.

120% agree! I had Kaepernick, Locker, Newton and Gabbert graded out pretty much equally with Ponder ust behind those four. I honestly didn't see sure-fire, top of the first round talent in any of this year's prospects. If it had been a normal off-season where Free Agency occurs as normal and veteran QBs are able to find new teams, I think the first round would have looked extremely different in terms of the QB position.

I don't think we thought about trading back up into the first until we saw two QBs(Locker and Ponder) who many thought to have 2nd round grades go in the top 20. Its just like any other round in any other draft when you see a run on CBs or a run on WRs, with teams taking their guy at that position the really like before they're snatched up. We tried to move up grab our guy before some else grabbed him.

nikkayeah
05-20-2011, 01:44 AM
We can argue all day long on CK's mechanics but it doesn't change the fact that he was drafted in round 2 and that not even San Fran believed enough in him to protect such a solid prospect by trading back up into round 1 to ensure getting him.
You want to believe he is everything, go for it but it is obvious that 32+ teams didn't think so and not even San Fran thought enough about him to try and make an extra effort to get him in round 1.
San Fran/Harbourgh can say what they want after the draft, every team, GM and HC does, but it doesn't make it true.
Yes, I think CK has a better chance than a lot of 2nd round QB's mainly because he has a solid arm and is a good athlete, but there are flaws no matter what you claim and it is going to take a lot of work to straighten them out. I see a prospect that will need at least 3 years before he is ready to start provided he can workout his flaws. It could be even longer.
If he had been drafted in round 1, he would have had to demonstrate that his flaws are minimal, something he failed to do and that is why so many teams passed on him.
As for Newton, the main concern by scouts and GM's was his personality, you either believe he will be a team player or you believe he is 'too me" orientated, there are zero questions by pro scouts and GM's about his talent level, that is just something draftniks like to argue about.
He will either be a great QB or IMO, the worse case scenario for Newton will be, that he will be another Terrell Owens type, all pro stats but never much of a winner.
I know I cannot convince 49er's fans about CK's potential but I do have a soft spot for San Fran so this has nothing to do with hoping for the worst. It is just my opinion on CK's potential.
let me ask you this. if kaepernick was drafted in the first round you would think more highly of him? the niners were initially trying to trade back into the first round to draft him but it didn't work out. they still ended up being able to get him in the early 2nd which was a good thing because they didn't have to give up as much.

the natural
05-20-2011, 02:02 AM
The Kaepernick pick is kind of redundant, I think. Harbaugh decided that Alex Smith was better than anyone available in the draft for the next 5 years of the contract he signed, so he addressed the need at defensive line and took the quarterback as long term backup insurance. I don't think Harbaugh is thinking of having Colin running the offense at any time in the near future. Except in dire circumstances if Smith is hurt and they can't acquire a suitable replacement.

PossibleCabbage
05-20-2011, 02:05 AM
People are underestimating what it was going to cost to trade back into the first round this year. So many QBs went much higher than expected that a bunch of good players fell further from expected, and as a result you were going to have to pay through the nose to get any of those late first teams to part with their pick because they were looking at a player they had rated much higher and would be dropping to a lower tier if they traded back.

Green Bay turned down a trade that would have given them a high fourth round pick for moving back three spots, a trade they'd win on the chart by more than 50 simply because they were confident that Sherrod wouldn't be there three picks later. You weren't going to talk the Jets and the Steelers out of Wilkerson or Heyward, and you weren't going to talk the Bears out of Carimi (a player they almost* traded up to get), and the chaos with the Ravens passing on their pick and the Chiefs jumping in meant that neither of those teams was going to trade back into the second round. The best trade-up spot was New England, who's always looking to sell to net future picks and the Saints likely offered a better prize (future first) than any one of the QB hungry teams were offering.

Probably the best place to trade back into the first, in retrospect, was Seattle at #25 but as I understand it they were hesitant to trade back far because they knew that Green Bay was high on their guy (Carpenter).

Iamcanadian
05-20-2011, 08:37 AM
People are underestimating what it was going to cost to trade back into the first round this year. So many QBs went much higher than expected that a bunch of good players fell further from expected, and as a result you were going to have to pay through the nose to get any of those late first teams to part with their pick because they were looking at a player they had rated much higher and would be dropping to a lower tier if they traded back.

Green Bay turned down a trade that would have given them a high fourth round pick for moving back three spots, a trade they'd win on the chart by more than 50 simply because they were confident that Sherrod wouldn't be there three picks later. You weren't going to talk the Jets and the Steelers out of Wilkerson or Heyward, and you weren't going to talk the Bears out of Carimi (a player they almost* traded up to get), and the chaos with the Ravens passing on their pick and the Chiefs jumping in meant that neither of those teams was going to trade back into the second round. The best trade-up spot was New England, who's always looking to sell to net future picks and the Saints likely offered a better prize (future first) than any one of the QB hungry teams were offering.

Probably the best place to trade back into the first, in retrospect, was Seattle at #25 but as I understand it they were hesitant to trade back far because they knew that Green Bay was high on their guy (Carpenter).

Look, if I'm San Fran's GM and I really believe CK has a real shot to be a star in the NFL, I pay any price to guarantee I get him, if however I just think he might possibly develop into a starting QB with a few years under his belt, I stay put and take the chance he falls to me.
The fact that San Fran stood pat tells me they didn't believe for a minute that CK had the potential to be a star but thought he had some potential down the road to develop with a lot of time and hard work.
Teams that drafted Newton, Locker, Gabbert and Ponder believed in their potential, they may turnout to be wrong but they drafted by what they believed in. For me, San Fran didn't have that kind of faith, confirming for me that CK has a long way to go. He may succeed just like the others may fail, but we won't know for at least 3 or 4 years, because it will take him that long before he starts unless injuries force the issue.
Just my opinion backed by the fact he lasted till round 2, now he must prove me and 31 other GM's wrong by his performance. His analysis as a prospect is finished by where he went in the draft, only performance can change the perception.

phlysac
05-20-2011, 10:39 AM
Look, if I'm San Fran's GM and I really believe CK has a real shot to be a star in the NFL, I pay any price to guarantee I get him, if however I just think he might possibly develop into a starting QB with a few years under his belt, I stay put and take the chance he falls to me.
The fact that San Fran stood pat tells me they didn't believe for a minute that CK had the potential to be a star but thought he had some potential down the road to develop with a lot of time and hard work.
Teams that drafted Newton, Locker, Gabbert and Ponder believed in their potential, they may turnout to be wrong but they drafted by what they believed in. For me, San Fran didn't have that kind of faith, confirming for me that CK has a long way to go. He may succeed just like the others may fail, but we won't know for at least 3 or 4 years, because it will take him that long before he starts unless injuries force the issue.
Just my opinion backed by the fact he lasted till round 2, now he must prove me and 31 other GM's wrong by his performance. His analysis as a prospect is finished by where he went in the draft, only performance can change the perception.

Why didn't Tennessee, Jacksonville and Minnesota trade up for Locker, Gabbert and Ponder then?

Trent Baalke tried to get up to pick #33 (strong rumors of Redskins and Raiders liking Kaepernick) but the Patriots asked for a 2nd this year a 2nd next year and additional later rounders. Baalke gambled on his deal with the Broncos being able to get the same player. He was right.

PossibleCabbage
05-20-2011, 12:30 PM
Look, if I'm San Fran's GM and I really believe CK has a real shot to be a star in the NFL, I pay any price to guarantee I get him, if however I just think he might possibly develop into a starting QB with a few years under his belt, I stay put and take the chance he falls to me.


I've been following the draft for a number of years, and I have never come across a prospect that I was willing to pay literally any price to guarantee I get him. Generally, trading up is a sucker's bet anyway. Repeatedly falling in love with prospects and overpaying to get them is the surest way to gut your roster over time.

FlyingElvis
05-20-2011, 12:35 PM
I've been following the draft for a number of years, and I have never come across a prospect that I was willing to pay literally any price to guarantee I get him. Generally, trading up is a sucker's bet anyway. Repeatedly falling in love with prospects and overpaying to get them is the surest way to gut your roster over time.

See: Panthers, Carolina

VAfy-ya
05-20-2011, 01:36 PM
I've been following the draft for a number of years, and I have never come across a prospect that I was willing to pay literally any price to guarantee I get him. Generally, trading up is a sucker's bet anyway. Repeatedly falling in love with prosects and overpaying to get them is the surest way to gut your roster over time.

Excatly. There's a HUGE difference between keeping your slot and drafting a guy in the first round with a second round grade and paying a king's ransom to move back into the first to draft that same player. Kaepernick was never going to be picked 7th overall. Not when he have a QB good enough to aleast win our division. And Im guessing we didn't have any QB rated that high. But of ALL of the QBs, Im sure Kaepernick was the one Harbaugh coveted the most so that's where the value lies. How much are you willing to pay to ensure that you get your guy? Im sure Harbaugh really liked Kaepernick but if Baalke determined that what a team wanted in return for moving up was too great, we have gone with plan B, whatever that would have been. You have to show some sort of restraint and sense of value in these things. It's never as clear-cut as I love this prospect so let's go draft him no matter what. If scouting was only that full-proof and accurate.

the natural
05-20-2011, 02:15 PM
Kaepernick was drafted as a backup for Alex Smith. As someone mentioned they have similar styles. But Smith is much the better quarterback, and likely will be until he retires. It is Alex who Harbaugh will ride as far as he can. Kaepernick is just someone who can come in if necessary without having to change the playbook too much.

Menardo75
05-20-2011, 03:46 PM
Look, if I'm San Fran's GM and I really believe CK has a real shot to be a star in the NFL, I pay any price to guarantee I get him, if however I just think he might possibly develop into a starting QB with a few years under his belt, I stay put and take the chance he falls to me.
The fact that San Fran stood pat tells me they didn't believe for a minute that CK had the potential to be a star but thought he had some potential down the road to develop with a lot of time and hard work.
Teams that drafted Newton, Locker, Gabbert and Ponder believed in their potential, they may turnout to be wrong but they drafted by what they believed in. For me, San Fran didn't have that kind of faith, confirming for me that CK has a long way to go. He may succeed just like the others may fail, but we won't know for at least 3 or 4 years, because it will take him that long before he starts unless injuries force the issue.
Just my opinion backed by the fact he lasted till round 2, now he must prove me and 31 other GM's wrong by his performance. His analysis as a prospect is finished by where he went in the draft, only performance can change the perception.

Are you not reading what any of the 49er fans say? San Fran tried to trade up late into the first round to get him, and couldn't swing a deal. Then tried to trade up to pick 33, but the Patriots wanted too much. How exactly did they "Stand pat" when they traded up to make sure they got him. From everything I have seen Kaepernick has been their guy since the combine. The fact they tried to make as many deals as they did, and finally ended up making one tells me they do think he can be the guy. Your argument would be better suited for the Bengals on waiting for Andy Dalton.

Rabscuttle
05-20-2011, 04:58 PM
Watching Smith's tape does give me hope that we will have ourselves a pass rusher. He has nasty hands and has inside moves to keep tackles honest. Too many of these OLB projects don't have that mean streak to mix it up with tackles and have to count on their man getting out of his stance slow to get around him. It sounds like Baalke tried to trade down a couple of slots to try to get Smith and another pick but couldn't find a buyer for the 7 pick.

Harbaugh obviously liked CK more than he liked the other guys available or one of them would be negotiating a contract with the team when the new cba is done. He was their target and they got him ahead of the other bidders and by all reports they didn't overpay for him even thought they thought (and attempted to) they would have to move up higher than they did to get him.

What this draft turned out to be was guys that produced at their schools, were for the most part very athletic, loved football, were for the most part team leaders and guys that have upside. It looks like their is an attitude that the team is actively searching for guys with real chances of playing their best football at the pro level after a couple of training camps and time on the scout team. Several of these guys are special teamers who probably won't pay off as position guys for three years and people will ask where they picked that guy up. That will be a sign that the team is finally being built properly with real scouting.

Iamcanadian
05-22-2011, 05:32 AM
Are you not reading what any of the 49er fans say? San Fran tried to trade up late into the first round to get him, and couldn't swing a deal. Then tried to trade up to pick 33, but the Patriots wanted too much. How exactly did they "Stand pat" when they traded up to make sure they got him. From everything I have seen Kaepernick has been their guy since the combine. The fact they tried to make as many deals as they did, and finally ended up making one tells me they do think he can be the guy. Your argument would be better suited for the Bengals on waiting for Andy Dalton.

Since when do fans know what their team did or tried to do in the draft?
Even if they did try to trade up, if they really belied that much in CK, how could it be too much?
I think Charley Casserly put it perfectly, "if a team offers me a next year's 1st which = 2nd round value this year, I would have grabbed that trade the moment it was offered, without hesitation." I assume many GM's share this idea.
Is it the chicken before the head or the head before the chicken, San Fran wanted to move up only if it was cheap or they didn't want to move up if the price followed the trade chart; indicating again to me that they didn't completely believe in CK.
Cincy has practically never moved up since Brown owned the team, he simply doesn't do those kind of trades, which perhaps explains why for the most part, his team has stunk.

MaybeDavis
05-22-2011, 08:04 AM
Since when do fans know what their team did or tried to do in the draft?
Even if they did try to trade up, if they really belied that much in CK, how could it be too much?
I think Charley Casserly put it perfectly, "if a team offers me a next year's 1st which = 2nd round value this year, I would have grabbed that trade the moment it was offered, without hesitation." I assume many GM's share this idea.
Is it the chicken before the head or the head before the chicken, San Fran wanted to move up only if it was cheap or they didn't want to move up if the price followed the trade chart; indicating again to me that they didn't completely believe in CK.
Cincy has practically never moved up since Brown owned the team, he simply doesn't do those kind of trades, which perhaps explains why for the most part, his team has stunk.

But you can it around also. Why should Green Bay and New England make that trade when they love a player at that spot? These teams actually got the pick and maybe dont want to trade it, because they fell in love with a player, like Harbaugh did with CK. So if a price couldnt to high to trade up for, then the other teams maybe think same way and didnt trade their pick.
And 6 to 8 picks later the Niners made their trade to got their guy. Dont understand your arguments in this case.

And YES, surely they didnt believe enough in CK, because they drafted him with the 7th ovr pick. But they believed enough in him to try to trade up back in the first 2 times (didnt work out) and then trade up to get him some picks later.

Draft is tactic! If they tradet in the first and gave up their 2nd and future 1st to get CK and u know they get him in the early 2nd and gave up just 2nd, 4th and 5th to get him, why should the first variation better than the second? Maybe they gambled a bit, but they got the guy they wanted for a cheaper price.

Watch the Pats drafting, on your view it have tto look like they believe in no player because trading down all the time. And the players the pats drafted fits welll most of the time and they are one of the best drafters in the league.

phlysac
05-22-2011, 11:22 AM
Since when do fans know what their team did or tried to do in the draft?
Even if they did try to trade up, if they really belied that much in CK, how could it be too much?
I think Charley Casserly put it perfectly, "if a team offers me a next year's 1st which = 2nd round value this year, I would have grabbed that trade the moment it was offered, without hesitation." I assume many GM's share this idea.
Is it the chicken before the head or the head before the chicken, San Fran wanted to move up only if it was cheap or they didn't want to move up if the price followed the trade chart; indicating again to me that they didn't completely believe in CK.
Cincy has practically never moved up since Brown owned the team, he simply doesn't do those kind of trades, which perhaps explains why for the most part, his team has stunk.

I understand what you're saying, in theory. However, I think you're pushing too hard to make the point. I'll use these examples in hopes to come to an agreement...

In 2002 Harbaugh gave David Garrard a higher grade than David Carr. If a team drafted Garrard higher than Carr the GM would've been ridiculed, terribly.

In 2003 Harbaugh rated Tony Romo higher than Kyle Boller. Does that mean it would've been fine (not in hindsight, but in the weeks following the draft) for the Ravens to have drafted Romo in the mid-1st?

Liking a player (it is conceivable that Kaepernick was Harbaugh's #1 ranked QB) and absolutely making a mockery of the Big Board in order to get said player are two very different things. Remember the reaction to the Raiders drafting Mike Mitchell in the 2nd round of the 2009 Draft? Al Davis obviously loved Mitchell. Does that mean he should've drafted him in the 1st round? Perhaps traded all the way up to #1 overall to select him?

Your arguments seems to say that's the case. That if a team believes in a player, they should exhaust all resources in being the first team with an opportunity to acquire them. Successful GM's don't do that.

Most believe that Kaepernick was quite a reach where he was selected. That alone could be reason enough to assume the 49ers were willing to "overpay" in order to get their guy.

shylo3716
05-23-2011, 09:48 PM
Was it a good idea to take Aldon Smith over Locker or Gabbert although they were thinking QB?

phlysac
05-23-2011, 10:49 PM
Was it a good idea to take Aldon Smith over Locker or Gabbert although they were thinking QB?

If they liked Kaepernick more, without question.

49ersfan_87
05-23-2011, 11:23 PM
Was it a good idea to take Aldon Smith over Locker or Gabbert although they were thinking QB?

I wouldn't be surprised if Kaepernick was #1 or #2 on Harbaugh's QB board. He fits all the requirements Harbaugh wants in a QB. Here's a good read on what Harbaugh wants in a QB.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2011/04/quarterback-dna.html

My personal guess...Harbaugh probably did not like Gabbert at all. Nothing seems to stand out with him. Maybe he liked Locker a little bit, but he's coached against him for years and knew a QB with Locker's physical talents wouldn't fall to Round 2 and still didn't take him. Kaepernick and Newton were probably the top 2 QB's on their board. Again, JMO.

Rabscuttle
05-24-2011, 04:54 PM
Was it a good idea to take Aldon Smith over Locker or Gabbert although they were thinking QB?

When Baalke talked about about Kapaernick and what they liked about him was his ability to be successful when things weren't perfect. At times when plays fell apart or he couldn't get his feet set or when he had to throw off his back foot. If that is a quality they are looking for that pretty much disqualifies Locker outright and really casts doubts on how much they would want Gabbert. I wouldn't be surprised if the list weas narrowed down to Ponder and Kapaernick pretty early in the process.

LizardKing51
05-24-2011, 09:34 PM
I strongly disagree with the 94% miss rate for 2nd round QBs claimed in this thread. I looked back for myself to check the success of 2nd round QBs. Since 1983 there have been 28 QBs drafted in the 2nd round not counting Pat White who most people didn't consider a NFL QB but more of a niche player. 3 of the 28 QBs were drafted in the last 30 years or so were drafted in the last two drafts which is obviously way too early to judge their success which leaves 25 2nd round QBs between 1983 and 2009 which makes for easy math to determine the success rate. 6 of the 25 or 24% were definite successes who went to pro-bowls. Those players are Drew Brees, Jake Plummer, Brett Favre, Kordell Stewart, Boomer Esiason, and Randall Cunningham. There were 9 others who I believe had successful enough careers to varying degrees to not be considered a miss. Those players are Tony Banks, Charlie Banks, Quincy Carter, Shawn King, Billy Joe Tolliver, Jack Trudeau, Todd Collins, Chad Henne, and Kevin Kolb. By my figures that is 15 of 25 or 60% of 2nd round QBs were not misses. 60% is much better than the 6% non-miss rate claimed in this thread. Just for completeness, the 10 misses were Browning Nagle, Brian Brohm, Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, John Beck, Marques Tuiasosopo, Mike Elkins, Matt Blundin, and Tony Sacca. You'll also note a few of these misses are still in the league and could still turn things around even though that might be unlikely.

If you look just at early 2nd round QBs then history looks even better for Kaepernick and Dalton. Early 2nd round QBs were generally either drafted by bad teams which needed to turn around their franchises or better teams that thought enough of the player to move up and grab them. The value of early 2nd round picks is also significantly more than (probably double) those late in the 2nd round making it meaningful to separate early 2nd rounders as a group from late 2nd rounders. If you just look at historical QBs drafted between the first pick of the 2nd round and pick 39 it looks great to me. If you look at the last 40 years there were 10 QBs taken in that range and 6 of them were very good hits, one is undetermined but looks good and only 3 were misses. The list of hits looks amazing!

Definite Hits:
Drew Brees
Brett Favre
Randall Cunningham
Ron Jaworski
Boomer Esiason
Neil Lomax

Undetermined but looking good:
Kevin Kolb

Misses:
Browning Nagle
Mike Elkins
Gary Huff

It looks to me that that historically 60% of early 2nd round QBs turn into NFL stars! Obviously Kaepernick and Dalton have to prove themselves, but I believe history looks a lot better for them than this thread would lead you to believe.

Borat
05-24-2011, 11:34 PM
But, but, I thought if you like a QB, you must trade up into the top 3 to prove you like him ... or something ridiculous like that.