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monson
06-28-2011, 07:01 PM
So, what goes into draft grades? I know we have to wait three years to know for sure but grades come out anyway.

Lets look at Bills pick at three. Is the grade based on who they got or who they took? Dareus available with newton and miller gone is an easy choice. No risk (risk isn't good in and of itself) So, do they get an A for getting Dareus or a C for picking Dareus? I guess I am asking if we are grading the results of the draft or are we grading how well the gms etc did.

phlysac
06-28-2011, 11:44 PM
"getting" or "picking" is merely opinion. I never feel that a GM can be punished for his #1 BPA also being at a position of need and at a universally regarded "value" spot.

I'll use the Scot McCloughan/Patrick Willis selection as an example...

McCloughan is hated by many/most 49ers fans and because of this whenever Willis is brought up the argument "everyone in the world knew that Willis would be their pick."

I guess what I'm saying is...

If you like the GM---- "A for picking Dareus."

If you dislike the GM---- "C for simply getting Dareus. It was an obvious pick."


My opinion is that universally bad GMs pass on the "obvious" picks for players that don't achieve success. While universally great GMs pass on the "obvious" picks for surprise players who exceed most people's expectations. The vast majority of NFL GMs tend to fall somewhere in between.

ellsy82
06-29-2011, 12:40 AM
Exactly. Now if you want to grade a draft after a few years, I think there's statistical value and team value that can be attributed to a particular selection. Take Sam Shields (UDFA), Mike Wallace, (3rd rounder), Tom Brady (6th rounder), or Aaron Rodgers (late first round winning superbowl champ).

You can't really tell until the player has settled in, and then you can combine individual accomplishments with his value to the team and get a pretty accurate "grade".

AntoinCD
06-29-2011, 06:30 AM
I don't necessarily think you have to wait 3 years to grade drafts its just that by the end of the third year every player should have shown if they can make it in the NFL or not.

Here is the problem with grading drafts right after they have been completed. This beauty of a quote can be attributed to Ron Borges who obviously didn't think Richard Seymour or Matt Light would become future all pros.

“On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second best tackle in the draft Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour who had 1 1/2 sacks last year in the pass-happy SEC, and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in the draft Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon.”

Another major problem in evaluating draft classes is that a lot of people tend to stop after the first round. As was mentioned above, do the Bills get an A or a C for taking Dareus??? They had more picks than just Dareus. The real knack at being a good drafting team is getting those late round guys to add depth and potential starting impact

cmarq83
06-29-2011, 05:13 PM
“On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second best tackle in the draft Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour who had 1 1/2 sacks last year in the pass-happy SEC, and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in the draft Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon.”

I love this. I remember I was pissed off when they drafted Seymour too.

MI_Buckeye
06-30-2011, 04:13 PM
So, what goes into draft grades? I know we have to wait three years to know for sure but grades come out anyway.

Lets look at Bills pick at three. Is the grade based on who they got or who they took? Dareus available with newton and miller gone is an easy choice. No risk (risk isn't good in and of itself) So, do they get an A for getting Dareus or a C for picking Dareus? I guess I am asking if we are grading the results of the draft or are we grading how well the gms etc did.

I always grade my drafts on the overall quality of the players (IMHO) and how I think it will effect the team in the near and distant future. I prefer to focus on what teams did do as opposed to what they could have done.

Revis Island
06-30-2011, 04:31 PM
I don't necessarily think you have to wait 3 years to grade drafts its just that by the end of the third year every player should have shown if they can make it in the NFL or not.

Here is the problem with grading drafts right after they have been completed. This beauty of a quote can be attributed to Ron Borges who obviously didn't think Richard Seymour or Matt Light would become future all pros.

“On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second best tackle in the draft Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour who had 1 1/2 sacks last year in the pass-happy SEC, and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in the draft Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon.”

Another major problem in evaluating draft classes is that a lot of people tend to stop after the first round. As was mentioned above, do the Bills get an A or a C for taking Dareus??? They had more picks than just Dareus. The real knack at being a good drafting team is getting those late round guys to add depth and potential starting impact

Nice find. I'm also not a huge fan of draft grades until a couple years later.

LonghornsLegend
06-30-2011, 04:38 PM
Draft grades are just for discussion immediately after, too many A's and B's are handed out every year just cause.

PossibleCabbage
06-30-2011, 07:09 PM
Draft grades are just for discussion immediately after, too many A's and B's are handed out every year just cause.

On a related point, the level of grade inflation in draft grades bugs me. If we're drawing analogy to grades in school, a 'C' is supposed to be an average grade, while 'B's are honors grades and 'A's are reserved for exceptional performance. While in the draft biz a 'C' is generally leveled at a bad draft, and average drafts are 'B's. If this is related to the epidemic of grade inflation in schools, then we ought to convert to numerical ratings. Nobody struggles with understanding that a film being given 2 or 3 stars on a 4-5 star scale is a perfectly acceptable film, if unexceptional.

The other thing that's odd is that people tend to try to work in a "degree of difficulty" in their grades. A priori we would probably expect that the team picking first in the order would have the best draft, while the team picking 32nd in the order would have the worst. In fact, this is the principle the draft is organized along. People grading drafts often try to include this nebulous concept of "value" which rewards teams for landing players lower than they should have gone, and punish "reaches" for teams picking high. This is fine, but it breaks the letter grade analogy. The kid with the learning disability does not get extra points on his or her math test, likewise we don't downgrade the child genius for not excelling to the extent of potential... we just grade on how the child actually performed.

onejayhawk
07-01-2011, 06:59 AM
I disagree with that approach. No one gets worse through the draft. Most teams get at least one starting player out of a draft, in many cases a rookie starter. In the scheme of player aquisition, the draft is rarely worse than a C.

J

King Carls 5 Year Plan
07-01-2011, 09:52 AM
“On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second best tackle in the draft Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour who had 1 1/2 sacks last year in the pass-happy SEC, and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in the draft Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon.”

Chiefs fans were very disappointed when we drafted Tyson Jackson @ #3. we were all told, "Pioli drafted Seymour. maybe he sees something in Jackson that reminds him of Seymour." WRONG! the man quoted in your post was definitely wrong about Seymour and Light. not all negative reactions to poor selections are wrong.

i agree with everyone that doesn't want to put a grade on a draft hours after they have finished selecting. to be much more accurate, time is needed to determine if a given draft class was a success or not.

I disagree with that approach. No one gets worse through the draft. Most teams get at least one starting player out of a draft, in many cases a rookie starter. In the scheme of player aquisition, the draft is rarely worse than a C.

J

i'll be interested to see how many "starters from day 1" the next few drafts produce after a rookie salary cap is in place. i believe that alot of the rookie starters were there because they were being paid like a Pro Bowler. there will always be players that are capable of starting and playing well in the NFL from the time they enter the league. i just think the fringe player that will no longer be paid like a top 10 players at his position won't be asked to start as early as in the past

ArkyRamsFan
07-01-2011, 11:52 AM
Chiefs fans were very disappointed when we drafted Tyson Jackson @ #3. we were all told, "Pioli drafted Seymour. maybe he sees something in Jackson that reminds him of Seymour." WRONG! the man quoted in your post was definitely wrong about Seymour and Light. not all negative reactions to poor selections are wrong.

King Carl,

I am interested in what you and other Chiefs fans are thinking about Jackson as a player going forward.

Why did Pioli draft T. Jackson? Is he developing as ya'll hoped or not? Are Chiefs fans ready to break out the dreaded "B" word for this guy or what?

What say ye?

King Carls 5 Year Plan
07-01-2011, 01:42 PM
where do i start??? yes, to this point in his career, TJax is a bust. now, that doesn't mean that he can't rectify the situation and become very productive. he can easily turn his career around and take his name out of the bust category. he doesn't have to look that far to see his inspiration. Glenn Dorsey was another bust in his 1st 2 years in the league. in his 3rd year, he made HUGE strides and became a very good player. his ability to play the 5 tech in a 34 has absolutely blossomed. he was easily our best DLineman in the 2010 season (Hali is an OLB). maybe TJax can make that same step. he had a minor injury at the beginning of last season that set him back. then Shaun Smith beat him out and never really relinquished the starting job.

TJax is being paid a ridiculous amount of $$$ and can't be considered anything but a bust to this point. losing his job to a journeyman is inexcusable. he has to play much better to lose the bust tag. the hardest part for him will be the idea that he doesn't have the work ethic (like a Dorsey) to make himself better. not necessarily lazy, but not willing to go the extra mile to earn his money (i guess i lied. that is lazy to me. having the talent and refusing to live up to it because you don't like working hard is the epitome of lazy, IMO. i work my ass off, in the heat for $65k).

why did Pioli TJax? that's easy. we were switching from a 43 to a 34 and had none of the required personnel to do so. Hali's fit into a 34 is a complete surprise to most. he has proven, not only to be good, but one of the best. Pioli took TJax (pretty universally considered the best 5 tech in that draft class) in the 1st. he didn't have a 2nd (traded it for Cassel and Vrabel another 34 piece) and then drafted Alex Magee (another 5 tech) in the 3rd. he was trying desperately to find the pieces to make Crennel's defense work. the surprising part to me is that BJ Raji (picture this defense with Raji manning the NT) was available at the TJax pick and i was always under the impression that the NT is the key to every 34. now, that still might be the case. it maybe that Pioli feels that NT is the Key, but a top 5 tech is harder to find. if he thought TJax was a Seymour type player, i can understand it a little. Seymour has a lot more "want to" and a drive to succeed. 2 things TJax lacks in.

ArkyRamsFan
07-01-2011, 02:41 PM
where do i start??? yes, to this point in his career, TJax is a bust. now, that doesn't mean that he can't rectify the situation and become very productive. he can easily turn his career around and take his name out of the bust category. he doesn't have to look that far to see his inspiration. Glenn Dorsey was another bust in his 1st 2 years in the league. in his 3rd year, he made HUGE strides and became a very good player. his ability to play the 5 tech in a 34 has absolutely blossomed. he was easily our best DLineman in the 2010 season (Hali is an OLB). maybe TJax can make that same step. he had a minor injury at the beginning of last season that set him back. then Shaun Smith beat him out and never really relinquished the starting job.

TJax is being paid a ridiculous amount of $$$ and can't be considered anything but a bust to this point. losing his job to a journeyman is inexcusable. he has to play much better to lose the bust tag. the hardest part for him will be the idea that he doesn't have the work ethic (like a Dorsey) to make himself better. not necessarily lazy, but not willing to go the extra mile to earn his money (i guess i lied. that is lazy to me. having the talent and refusing to live up to it because you don't like working hard is the epitome of lazy, IMO. i work my ass off, in the heat for $65k).

why did Pioli TJax? that's easy. we were switching from a 43 to a 34 and had none of the required personnel to do so. Hali's fit into a 34 is a complete surprise to most. he has proven, not only to be good, but one of the best. Pioli took TJax (pretty universally considered the best 5 tech in that draft class) in the 1st. he didn't have a 2nd (traded it for Cassel and Vrabel another 34 piece) and then drafted Alex Magee (another 5 tech) in the 3rd. he was trying desperately to find the pieces to make Crennel's defense work. the surprising part to me is that BJ Raji (picture this defense with Raji manning the NT) was available at the TJax pick and i was always under the impression that the NT is the key to every 34. now, that still might be the case. it maybe that Pioli feels that NT is the Key, but a top 5 tech is harder to find. if he thought TJax was a Seymour type player, i can understand it a little. Seymour has a lot more "want to" and a drive to succeed. 2 things TJax lacks in.

Wow...thanks for the detailed reply. Dorsey is a guy I as a Rams fan has follwed since the draft. The big debate among Rams fans was whether to draft Glen Dorsey or Chris Long in the '08 draft.

Many of us (including me) wanted Dorsey over Long. It is encouraging to hear you talk up Glen like you did. Though I've always thought that he would be a MUCH better fit in a 4 - 3 defense where he could just concentrate on penetrating a gap and getting upfield and such.

It is kinda amazing how well the Chiefs have done considering that they haven't got much from the '08 draft which was Pioli's first with KC. I mean when you figure T. Jax is on the bench and that Magee has already been traded this is not the most auspicious start to a new regime. (Heh!! sounds a little like "King Carl" right?!?!)

P.S. If it is as hot in MO as it is in AR get inside man!!

P.S.S. It's so hot...I saw a dog chasing a cat ...and they were both walking.

King Carls 5 Year Plan
07-01-2011, 03:52 PM
it's blazin here. i mow the lawn after dark with my spelunking helmet to light the way.

Dorsey has been a great player for us. he has been a vocal leader on and off the field and his character is beyond reproach. i'm not a fan of saying he would be better in a 43. he was absolutely drafted to play in a 43, but has thrived in a 34. i guess it's my approach to leave a player in a position that they have played well in. you can say his talents looked to be better suited in a 43, but he has proven to be very valuable in a 34. i wouldn't consider moving him at all and if i'm the Chiefs, it would take a trade that knocked my socks off.

Pioli's '09 draft will go down as one of his poorest in his career. there is no escaping that. however, if you look at it closer, he in mid January and fired his coach late into the offseason. he had to hire a new HC and try and get a new franchise ready. the switch to a 34 made things difficult because the previous scouts were more versed in a 43 cover 2 scheme. Scott realized there was not enough time to hire all new scouts and be prepared for the draft. he had to make due with what he had and promptly fired all the scouts the day after the draft was finished. even Belichick admits to needing people like Pioli to help him build a franchise. Pioli, just needed to clear the room and start from scratch. the '10 draft class have more than made up for the disappointment in the '09 class. maybe TJax turns it around and the Chiefs can at least get 2 players (Ryan Succop, Mr Irrelevant, being the other) from the '09 draft.

onejayhawk
07-02-2011, 08:11 PM
This is true. Dorsey deserved Pro Bowl attention last year.

Jackson has not been a crater, but he has been far short of what Pioli/Haley wanted. In fact Shaun Smith out played him last year, and SS is a journeyman. that being said, TJ's problem seems to be hesitancy. I dont know why, but he does not get into the flow of the play smoothly.

Ifs, buts, a 5th round pick (for 2009 3rd round Alex Magee) and Ryan Succop. Not Pioli's best moment. He made up for it last year.

Dont talk to me about heat until you have been places where its 110°--in October.

J

SaintsMan
07-05-2011, 11:49 AM
i wouldn't consider moving him at all and if i'm the Chiefs, it would take a trade that knocked my socks off.



heh they already turned down a trade offer like that from the saints. i'm kinda glad it didn't work out as we got sedrick ellis, tracy porter and malcolm jenkins with the picks we were trying to trade. it would have been nice to have dorsey in black and gold. one of my favorite all time players from lsu