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jrdrylie
08-01-2011, 11:46 AM
1. Cincinnati Bengals- QB Andrew Luck Stanford: I know, I know the Bengals drafted Andy Dalton in round two of the 2012 draft. But Marvin Lewis will almost certainly be fired after a season where 3-13 looks inevitable. Unless most of us are completely wrong, I doubt Andy Dalton shows anything this year to make anyone think he is a better option than Andrew Luck.

2. Miami Dolphins- QB Landry Jones Oklahoma: I think a huge season by Landry Jones will actually lead some people to ask whether he, and not Luck, should be the top pick. Like the Bengals, the Dolphins will almost certainly have a new head coach after this season. That means Chad Henne/Matt Moore will be replaced.

3. Carolina Panthers- WR Alshon Jeffery South Carolina: Good strategy Panthers. Sign a bunch of guys from a 2-win team to humongous deals. That should work. Even if that was a good strategy, starting Cam Newton will not be. I do like the addition of Greg Olsen and drafting Jeffery would give Newton yet another weapon.

4. Tennessee Titans - DE Quinton Couples UNC: Some people think the signing of Matt Hasselbeck will instantly turn the Titans into a playoff contender. Those people are stuck in 2006. The guy is done. If Derrick Morgan can come back from his injury, he should be a 10-sack player this year. Adding Couples across from him would give Tennessee a spectacular young pass rush.

5. San Francisco 49ers- Dre Kirkpatrick Alabama: I think Harbaugh will make the 49ers a better team. But as long as Alex Smith is the starter, six wins is probably the ceiling. San Francisco was in the market for the big name free agent corners but missed out on all of them. With a rising Sam Bradford and the addition of Kevin Kolb to the division. they'll need to upgrade a pass defense that finished 24th in the league in 2011.

6. Seattle Seahawks- QB Matt Barkley USC: Charlie Whitehurst and Tarvaris Jackson has to be one of the worst QB competitions of all time. In the end, it doesn't matter because whichever one wins will almost certainly be replaced by Pete Carroll's former QB.

7. Minnesota Vikings- WR Justin Blackmon Oklahoma State: Is McNabb done or was last year in Washington just an anomaly? The answer to that question will determine whether the Vikings will be drafting in the top-ten or the late-teens. If they are drafting in the top-ten, they should be in great shape to find a weapon for Christian Ponder. With Blackmon as the number one, Harvin as the deep threat, and Rudolph at tight end, Ponder will have no excuses.

8. Kansas City Chiefs- Donte Paige-Moss: I think the loss of Charlie Weis will return Matt Cassel to the average QB he is. I think Denver and Oakland will be better this year and a tougher schedule might put the Chiefs back in the top-ten. The Chiefs already have a solid pass rusher in Tamba Hali. Adding Paige-Moss should upgrade a pass rush that finished 12th in the NFL in sacks.

9. Washington Redskins- QB Nick Foles Arizona: I said the Whitehurst/Jackson competition was one of the worst in NFL history. If it isn't, the Beck/Grossman battle certainly is. With those options, I can't see them improving on last year's record. Unfortunately, I don't think they will be bad enough to get Luck. Foles in the top-10 would certainly be a reach, but so were Locker and Ponder last year.

10. Buffalo Bills- OT Matt Kalil USC: There is nothing to get excited about at tackle in Buffalo unless 4th round pick Chris Hairston is somehow a Pro Bowler from day one. I doubt it. Kalil, the guy who kept Tyron Smith at right tackle, would definitely be an upgrade.

11. Cleveland Browns- ILB Vontaze Burfict Arizona State: The Browns are switching to the 4-3 defense so they will need to continuing bringing in guys that fit the system. Burfict might be the best linebacker in this class and would be an upgrade over whoever Cleveland starts inside in 2011.

12. Oakland Raiders- QB Tyler Wilson Arkansas: Wilson is the guy I'm predicting to come out of nowhere and be a first round pick. I think he is better than Ryan Mallett (who likely would have been a first round pick if he wasn't such a nutcase). As always, this pick could also turn out to be Jeffery Demps, who will likely have the fastest 40-time at the Combine.

13. Denver Broncos- DT Jerel Worthy Michigan State: This is a tough pick. Do the Broncos go for a defensive tackle, where they have absolutely nothing? Or do they go for a running back, where they have Moreno and McGahee? After seeing their rush defense finish at the bottom of the league, they have to take Worthy (although passing on Richardson will be tough).

14. Jacksonville Jaguars- CB Stephon Gilmore South Carolina: Mathis is a free agent after 2011 and may no be back. Derrick Cox has been kind of hot and cold as a starter. In short, the secondary is bad. Safety is probably a bigger need, but I'm not sure the value fits.

15. Detroit Lions- OT Jonathan Martin Stanford: Detroit fans say that Jeff Backus was better last year. I say one year of good play should not make us forget nine years of crap. If Stafford is injured again, Detroit has to bring in more blocking.

16.New England Patriots from New Orleans LB Manti Te'o Notre Dame: I don't think the Saints are a bad team. I juts think Tampa and Atlanta are better and I don't think all three get into the playoffs. I don't know how Te'o fit into New England's defense. Spikes and Mayo man the inside. But Te'o does have experience at the outside spot and he can't be worse than wht they currently have.

17. New York Giants- RB Trent Richardson Alabama: Ahmad Bradshaw has not resigned with the Giants yet. Even if he does, that shouldn't stop them from taking Richardson, the best running back prospect since at least 2008. This would allow them to trade/cut Brandon Jacobs.

18. Philadelphia Eagles-OLB Zac Brown UNC: The Eagles made some huge splashes in the free agent pool this year. But that doesn't change the fact that Michael Vick is an injury risk who has never led his team to consecutive playoff appearances. While others have them listed as the NFC favorites, I doubt they even make the playoffs.

19. St. Louis Rams- OLB Travis Lewis Oklahoma: I thought the Rams were playoff bound before the Cardinals traded for Kevin Kolb. Now I think they are a year away again. Finding an upgrade to the crap-fest they have at outside linebacker will help though.

20. New York Jets- OLB Courtney Upshaw Alabama: Like the Eagles, a lot of people have been calling the Jets the favorites. I start believing that when they actually win the division. They will not do that until they actually upgrade their pass rush.

21. San Diego Chargers- OLB Brandon Jenkins Florida State: I was certain that the Chargers would find a replacement to first round bust Larry English in the 2011 draft. They didn't, meaning Mr. English gets one more shot. if he fails, Jenkins, possibly the best pass rusher in this draft, should fill in nicely.

22. Cleveland Browns from Atlanta- S Ray Ray Armstrong Miami: The Browns have a bunch of different directions they could go here. A corner opposite Haden? Another receiver to pair with Greg Little? Or a defensive end, a spot where they are counting on a rookie 2nd round pick? In the end, I think they go for the top play available with this luxury pick. That would be Armstrong.

23. Arizona Cardinals- OT Riley Reiff Iowa: I'm a believer in Kevin Kolb. In a weak division, I think he can get the Cardinals back into the playoffs. He already has a go-to receiver so now all the Cards need to do is protect him.

24. New England Patriots- DT/DE Marcus Fortson Miami: Face it. What we put at this pick doesn't matter because it will inevitably be traded to someone for a 2013 first round pick. If they surprisingly keep it, I guess they would use it to address the front seven.

25. Dallas Cowboys- CB Alfonzo Dennard Nebraska: The Cowboys were in the running for Nnamdi, so obviously they aren't happy with what they have in the secondary.

26. Pittsburgh Steelers- LB Luke Kuechly Boston College: You never know who the Steelers are going to target. They usually look towards the future or pick a guy who slips a bit. That guy could be Luke Kuechly who could replace James Farrior.

27. Green Bay Packers- DE Jared Crick Nebraska: The Packers lost Cullen Jenkins to the Eagles. So unless they are happy with Ryan Pickett and Jarius Wynn at defensive end, Crick seems like the perfect fit.

28. Houston Texans- WR Michael Floyd Notre Dame: The Texans already have the offense. Now their defense has been substantially upgraded. If they don't make the playoffs, Gary Kubiak is out the door. Andre Johnson has put up amazing numbers at receiver despite never having a legitimate guy across the field. Michael Floyd could certainly be that guy.

29. Baltimore Ravens- WR Jeff Fuller Texas A&M: There is nothing to get excited about at receiver in Baltimore. If they won't to get over the hump, Joe Flacco has to be given some weapons outside of Ray Rice.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama: Jenkins stock took a serious hit when he was kicked off the Florida team. But if he dominates the lower division and then blows up in the off season (and stays of the weed), he can regain a lot of that stock.

31. Chicago Bears- OG Cordy Glenn Georgia: We all know the Chicago offensive line sucks. But with the addition of Carimi and Spencer, they may be upgraded to simply poor. Both guard spots are horrendous and seriously need upgraded. I'd be shocked if this actually the pick. But I can hope.

32. Indianapolis Colts- S Kenny Tate Maryland: Now that Bob Sanders and his decaying body is gone, maybe they can find a replacement. Tate likely would have been the top safety in the 2011 draft. His stock might take a hit with Maryland playing him in a linebacker hybrid position this season. If it does, the Colts could be pulling off a steal.

Matthew Jones
08-01-2011, 12:04 PM
Manti Te'o is not a 3-4 outside linebacker at all. I could maybe see it if New England moves to a 4-3 defense, but then Fortson doesn't make sense. I'd be hoping for Crick and Brewster there.

Vaylor
08-01-2011, 01:11 PM
Manti Te'o is not a 3-4 outside linebacker at all. I could maybe see it if New England moves to a 4-3 defense, but then Fortson doesn't make sense. I'd be hoping for Crick and Brewster there.

It would be a bad pick in either scheme. Patriots roster is full of 3-4 ILB/4-3 OLBs. I agree with Crick and Brewster.

jrdrylie
08-01-2011, 01:36 PM
Manti Te'o is not a 3-4 outside linebacker at all. I could maybe see it if New England moves to a 4-3 defense, but then Fortson doesn't make sense. I'd be hoping for Crick and Brewster there.

I'm not sure why Manti Te'o doesn't hit in as a 3-4 OLB. He has experience playing outside. He has good size at around 255-260. I admit he is a better fit in the 4-3, but I think he would do fine in a 3-4.

The Fortson pick was a throwaway pick. I seriously doubt that the Patriots keep that pick so I just plugged in a guy who will be picked around there that is at least a possibility to go to New England.

vidae
08-01-2011, 01:36 PM
The Chiefs pick 8th? Jeez.

jrdrylie
08-01-2011, 01:54 PM
The Chiefs pick 8th? Jeez.

I had them tied with Washington, Cleveland, and Buffalo, so depending on schedule strength, they could pick 11th. I just don't have faith in Matt Cassell. I think last year was an anomaly and without Charlie Weis he'll fall back to around the 18th-20th best starting QB in the NFL (where I rank him along with Ryan Fitzpatrick and David Garrard). I also have no faith in them properly using Jamaal Charles.

I think they go 3-3 in Division. The rest of their schedule goes like this

Home: Buffalo, Minnesota, Miami, Pittsburgh, Green Bay
Away: Detroit, Indianapolis, New England, Chicago, New York Jets

They could easily lose each of those away games and go 3-2 in the home games. That puts their floor at 6-10 and their ceiling at around 8-8.

Bald_81
08-01-2011, 01:59 PM
I currently have the Bengals with the first overall pick as well (actually had that envisioned for quite some time), so it's a no brainer they're taking Luck. Just a shame he's going to waste the first five seasons of his career with Mike Brown.

I always see an OLB mocked to the Rams, but I just don't know if we're going to go in that direction. Spagnuolo's defences have mostly contained solid, if unheralded LBs that play to their roles and abilities. Unless there are none on the board, I can definitely see us addressing DT or if Trent Richardson somehow magically fell to us he would probably be in serious consideration.

jrdrylie
08-01-2011, 02:13 PM
I currently have the Bengals with the first overall pick as well (actually had that envisioned for quite some time), so it's a no brainer they're taking Luck. Just a shame he's going to waste the first five seasons of his career with Mike Brown.

I always see an OLB mocked to the Rams, but I just don't know if we're going to go in that direction. Spagnuolo's defences have mostly contained solid, if unheralded LBs that play to their roles and abilities. Unless there are none on the board, I can definitely see us addressing DT or if Trent Richardson somehow magically fell to us he would probably be in serious consideration.

I've heard that about the Rams defense before. I could see them going for a defensive tackle because I thought they might seriously look at Corey Liuget last year. Fortson would be the only guy that might have value there (I'm not sure if Crick fits their defensive scheme). Depending on how well their unheralded receivers play this year, I could see them targeting Fuller or Floyd too.

BaLLiN
08-01-2011, 03:05 PM
like the pick, but 17th? we're facing the NFC West and AFC East, we face the redskins, dallas, and eagles twice each, and 49ers and Saints.

NFC West should be 3-1, NFC East 4-2, AFC East 2-2, Packers lose, Saints win. Thats 10-6, and should probably make the playoffs.

jrdrylie
08-01-2011, 03:25 PM
like the pick, but 17th? we're facing the NFC West and AFC East, we face the redskins, dallas, and eagles twice each, and 49ers and Saints.

NFC West should be 3-1, NFC East 4-2, AFC East 2-2, Packers lose, Saints win. Thats 10-6, and should probably make the playoffs.

The Giants were my biggest debate. It was pretty much between them, St. Louis, and Atlanta for the last playoff spot. They could easily make the playoffs. And I meant to have them picking after Philadelphia. But if they tie with St. Louis, it goes to strength of schedule. Taking out their common games:

New York: Buffalo, Miami, New England, Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, Jets
St. Louis: Baltimore, Cleveland, Arizona, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle

Maybe the Giant's schedule is a bit better. Maybe not. It's hard to predict. But they are pretty similar.

Pat Sims 90
08-01-2011, 03:58 PM
Mike Brown will not fire Marvin Lewis he signed a 2 yr deal he will finish that 2 yr deal idk how many times i have to say this. But if the Bengals pick 1st overall they are almost required to pick Andrew Luck.

AntoinCD
08-01-2011, 04:03 PM
If the Pats do make more of a transition to the 43 then Te'o playing SAM would give the Pats a beastly set of starting LBs. But Forston isn't a great fit in a 4 man front and really isn't much of a need, regardless of whether Haynesworth pans out of not.

Jeff Fuller would bne a nice addition at WR or an interior lineman, preferrably an OC like Brewster as ROP mentioned

jrdrylie
08-01-2011, 04:08 PM
Mike Brown will not fire Marvin Lewis he signed a 2 yr deal he will finish that 2 yr deal idk how many times i have to say this. But if the Bengals pick 1st overall they are almost required to pick Andrew Luck.

I know Lewis got a two-year contract. And I know Mike Brown is as cheap as they come so he won't love having to pay Lewis after he is fired. But in eight seasons, he has averaged 7-9. He has two winning seasons and no playoff wins. The fact that he got an extension is outrageous. Not getting rid of him after what I expect to be a 3 or 4 win season just to save a few bucks is even worse. Then again, it's the Bengals. They will continue to make idiotic decisions that defy all logic and common sense.

If the Pats do make more of a transition to the 43 then Te'o playing SAM would give the Pats a beastly set of starting LBs. But Forston isn't a great fit in a 4 man front and really isn't much of a need, regardless of whether Haynesworth pans out of not.

Jeff Fuller would bne a nice addition at WR or an interior lineman, preferrably an OC like Brewster as ROP mentioned

Like I said, I doubt they keep the pick where I gave them Marcus Fortson. If they do switch to the 4-3, where would Brandon Spikes play. I don't think he has the athleticism to be anything other than a thumper inside in a 34 defense.

Unbiased
08-01-2011, 09:25 PM
Ideal Jacksonville pick.

prock
08-02-2011, 03:45 AM
A lineman would be a better pick for the Vikes, but Blackman is awesome too

jrdrylie
08-02-2011, 08:12 AM
A lineman would be a better pick for the Vikes, but Blackman is awesome too

Offensive tackle was definitely a possibility there. And as this tackle class is potentially much better than last year, not having one go until pick 10 would be kind of shocking. But I think Blackmon is going to be really good. Kalil could be the pick too though.

K Train
08-02-2011, 10:37 AM
kuechly to the steelers isnt a good fit...not that id be mad, but id prefer brewster or cordy glenn there

T-RICH49
08-06-2011, 08:55 AM
first of all we're NOT going to finish last in the AFC West second of all we drafted Justin Houston this year and signed Tamba Hali long term so pass rusher is set

bluebonnet78
08-09-2011, 12:11 AM
Smart Cowboys pick. Newman is gone next year and Jenkins is always getting nicked up. We could use Dennard or one of the other top CBs.

I'd be surprised if Dallas makes the playoffs, but I like your optimism. +rep