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Flyboy
09-08-2011, 06:56 PM
I don't make many threads or post very much on here as much as I used to, however as I was listening to Sirius earlier and heard a caller whom was a surgeon's opinion about Peyton Manning's health.

If the Colts have the #1 overall pick in the draft and say Peyton Manning is still struggling to get healthy and Andrew Luck is sitting there.. even with the contract that Manning just signed - what should or would the Colts do in if that situation was presented?

CashmoneyDrew
09-08-2011, 07:02 PM
Luck all the way.

This would be an interesting poll.

Flyboy
09-08-2011, 07:04 PM
A mod/admin could definitely make a poll out of it.

CashmoneyDrew
09-08-2011, 07:05 PM
Post more often btw.

Shane P. Hallam
09-08-2011, 07:13 PM
Well, you could have added a poll. I cannot.

And yes, they would take Luck. Or even better, get a beast package to trade down.

tjsunstein
09-08-2011, 07:16 PM
Andrew Luck learning from Peyton Manning? Sweet baby jesus.

FUNBUNCHER
09-08-2011, 07:17 PM
All of Peyton's contract isn't guaranteed, and I could envision a scenario where the Colts let go of Peyton in three years, sooner if his neck injury acutely affects Manning's performance.

If I were Peyton, because of the nature of his position and the hits he takes potentially in the pocket, with the risk of potential spinal damage and paralysis I'd consider retiring.

If the 49ers dumped Montana for Steve Young and GB kicked Favre to the curb for Rodgers, I don't think any player is untouchable.

If the Colts draft Luck, we will all be witnessing the beginning of the end of Peyton Manning's career as an Indianapolis Colt.

FUNBUNCHER
09-08-2011, 07:18 PM
Andrew Luck learning from Peyton Manning? Sweet baby jesus.

Right??

THat's just not fair. Goodell needs to fine somebody for....something.

Flyboy
09-08-2011, 07:20 PM
Well, you could have added a poll. I cannot.

Wasn't really a thought of mine when I was making the thread - more just really focused on the discussion aspect of the topic at hand. It was a good idea in hindsight, but wasn't my main focus when starting the initial thread.

Giantsfan1080
09-08-2011, 07:27 PM
They would not take Luck. You know how much cap space the 2 of them would take up? Also, if Manning comes back healthy next year he still has a 5 year window to win. They'd be much better off trading the pick for a crazy package and souping the team up. A franchise player like Manning doesn't just get thrown out of the team for a QB prospect. I've been on the Luck bandwagon forever but he's still not close enough to a sure thing that you'd kick Peyton Manning to the curb. I know people think it would be amazing for a franchise to go from Manning to Luck but it's not going to happen unless Peyton retires. Peyton is to much of a gamer for that to happen.

Pat Sims 90
09-08-2011, 07:38 PM
But Luck is a lock for the Bengals according to most people.... I guess a Kerry Collins Colts is better then a Andy Dalton Bengals.

I think regardless whoever picks 1st should take Luck.

Scott Wright
09-08-2011, 09:46 PM
The Colts gotta take Luck in the scenario.

In fact, there are only two or three teams that should even think about passing on Luck.

TheBoyWonder22
09-08-2011, 10:08 PM
The only teams that shouldn't are Atlanta, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Tampa. Every other team should at least consider it.

Babylon
09-08-2011, 10:42 PM
All of Peyton's contract isn't guaranteed, and I could envision a scenario where the Colts let go of Peyton in three years, sooner if his neck injury acutely affects Manning's performance.

If I were Peyton, because of the nature of his position and the hits he takes potentially in the pocket, with the risk of potential spinal damage and paralysis I'd consider retiring.

If the 49ers dumped Montana for Steve Young and GB kicked Favre to the curb for Rodgers, I don't think any player is untouchable.

If the Colts draft Luck, we will all be witnessing the beginning of the end of Peyton Manning's career as an Indianapolis Colt.

I could see Peyton being gone in as soon as a year maybe two if he does indeed miss this year and they draft Andrew Luck.

What sucks is without Manning the Colts might be worse than Seattle.

NIN1984
09-08-2011, 10:56 PM
They would have to Luck. The fan base would love it. The Colts franchise would be set at QB for another 10+ years. Wow, over 20 years of fantastic QB play. That's if Luck pans out of course.

killxswitch
09-08-2011, 11:01 PM
Of course they should and would take Luck. If Manning is so injured he can't play at all this season, he will not play into his 40s. I'd say 2 or 3 years max. Plenty of time for Luck to learn. Manning can retire when he's ready and Luck can step in seamlessly.

Though if they traded the #1 pick to somebody else for a bunch of picks/players and still got either Barkley or Jones, it could still work out great. Luck is probably good enough that he wouldn't necessarily need to sit a couple years. Barkley and Jones would both benefit from that situation more.

The Colts could come away from this draft with their QB of the future even if they pick in the 5-8 range.

Big Bird
09-08-2011, 11:10 PM
Luck would get the Aaron Rodgers treatment, being able to develop and learn from one of the greatest to ever play (in Luck's case, the greatest at the QB position IMO).

It would just be insane and I think the universe would implode.

DI
09-08-2011, 11:12 PM
Without question. I was actually going to post this same exact thread earlier. No doubt they take Luck and learns from Peyton. Just unfair.

Don Vito
09-08-2011, 11:24 PM
Right??

THat's just not fair. Goodell needs to fine somebody for....something.

Or just say they cheated and take their pick away

tjsunstein
09-09-2011, 12:16 AM
Or just say they cheated and take their pick away
Are you saying that because of that spy gate thing?

niel89
09-09-2011, 01:04 AM
The possibility of going from one franchise QB to another is just too tempting to pass. If Luck is given 2-3 years of being on the bench to learn, then he has a great potential of being successful. Manning isn't looking like a guy who will be playing for another 5 years right now. Getting Manning weapons keeps the window open for another 3-4 years; getting Luck could keep the window open for another 10+ years.

BeerBaron
09-09-2011, 05:54 AM
I was utterly torn. I have this feeling that if they are told that Peyton will be back to 100% for 2012, they wouldn't do it.

But I think it would be the intelligent thing to do. And they don't even really need to have the #1 pick for Luck. If they're picking anywhere in the top 10 and have a shot at any top QB, they should do it.

killxswitch
09-09-2011, 08:48 AM
I was utterly torn. I have this feeling that if they are told that Peyton will be back to 100% for 2012, they wouldn't do it.

But I think it would be the intelligent thing to do. And they don't even really need to have the #1 pick for Luck. If they're picking anywhere in the top 10 and have a shot at any top QB, they should do it.

If Manning doesn't return it's as close to a lock as you can get that they'll have a top 10 pick. I'd prefer Luck but Barkley or Jones might be fantastic consolation prizes on their own.

PossibleCabbage
09-09-2011, 08:53 AM
The only circumstance in which the team who lands the #1 overall pick wouldn't take Luck, is if that team trades away the pick before it is made.

If a team with a great situation at QB improbably ends up picking #1 overall, that team will still pick Andrew Luck because the package of picks and players you can get in exchange for the rights to Luck will exceed the value of any other player you could select at #1.

falloutboy14
09-09-2011, 09:38 AM
Aside from the Colts getting their hands on Luck, the situation I most want to see is, a team with a young, established QB get the first pick to 1) see how they handle it. and 2) see what trade they get. 3 first round picks?

tjsunstein
09-09-2011, 09:56 AM
The only circumstance in which the team who lands the #1 overall pick wouldn't take Luck, is if that team trades away the pick before it is made.

If a team with a great situation at QB improbably ends up picking #1 overall, that team will still pick Andrew Luck because the package of picks and players you can get in exchange for the rights to Luck will exceed the value of any other player you could select at #1.
What about a team like Jacksonville, Carolina, Minnesota even? Not great QB situations but invested a 1st in a QB last year. They don't go Luck.

Leon Sandcastle
09-09-2011, 10:07 AM
It would be totally depressing for Niner, Bills, Browns, Bengals, Redskins and Seahawks fans if this happened.

It would be bad for the NFL too.

Bob Sanders Dreadlock
09-09-2011, 10:10 AM
I have no confidence in Irsay(alcoholic? something is not right with him his tweets really bother me) or the Polians to do the right thing.

jrdrylie
09-09-2011, 10:20 AM
I think they would have to trade it. Maybe to a team like Washington, Buffalo, Cincinnati, or Seattle. That way, they would still have a top-ten, maybe top-five pick. They could get a guy like Barkley, Jones, or whomever they like. They would also get an additional 2nd, 3rd, and maybe more. They could get a receiver, running back, or some defensive players. The other option would be get Alshon Jeffery or Justin Blackmon with the first round pick they get, take a QB at the top of round two, and still have a second, and two thirds to play around with. This allows them to reload, take another shot at a championship, and still have a young QB for Manning to groom.

Now if it looks like Manning is done or won't be able to come back close to his normal level, Luck would be the pick.

jrdrylie
09-09-2011, 10:21 AM
I have no confidence in Irsay(alcoholic? something is not right with him his tweets really bother me) or the Polians to do the right thing.

Irsay doesn't actually do most of the tweets. He has an assistant named Abby that does them.

AntoinCD
09-09-2011, 10:22 AM
What about a team like Jacksonville, Carolina, Minnesota even? Not great QB situations but invested a 1st in a QB last year. They don't go Luck.

With the finest respect to Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert the only team with a second year QB that could pass on Luck is Carolina IMO. Everyone knows Newton will take time but he has the skillset to revolutionize the QB position(even if the odds are against him). Newtons upside and potential may warrant thr Panthers to look elsewhere.

Both Gabbert and Ponder were taken higher than they should have been last year because it was a poor QB class. If either team passes on Luck to roll the dice on their second year guy it is simply pure ignorance and stubborness

LonghornsLegend
09-09-2011, 11:58 AM
Andrew Luck learning from Peyton Manning? Sweet baby jesus.

Exactly. The thought is pretty ridiculous. I've actually thought about this quite a bit since that news, and they are very likely to get the #1 pick without Peyton. Luck and it's a no brainer choice.


Luck is a different breed at QB, you don't pass him up under any circumstances. Besides he gets to pick Peyton's brain for a year or more and become even better? Yes please. This sets your franchise up for another 15 years with consistent elite QB play. Figure out the answer to the whens and hows later, take Luck and let the rest take care of itself.

Saints-Tigers
09-09-2011, 12:31 PM
Yea, don't overthink it. YOu take Luck, and you have a better prospect than Aaron Rodgers, learning from a better QB than Brett Favre.... scary.

It's not like they can't reload around Manning while they wait too, they'll have luck, and the top pick in each round, that second rounder will basically be like where the Colts normally pick in the draft.

killxswitch
09-09-2011, 12:38 PM
Yea, don't overthink it. YOu take Luck, and you have a better prospect than Aaron Rodgers, learning from a better QB than Brett Favre.... scary.

It's not like they can't reload around Manning while they wait too, they'll have luck, and the top pick in each round, that second rounder will basically be like where the Colts normally pick in the draft.

This is a very good point.

BeerBaron
09-09-2011, 12:43 PM
Yea, don't overthink it. YOu take Luck, and you have a better prospect than Aaron Rodgers, learning from a better QB than Brett Favre.... scary.

It's not like they can't reload around Manning while they wait too, they'll have luck, and the top pick in each round, that second rounder will basically be like where the Colts normally pick in the draft.

Bill Polian doesn't think like a normal human, he thinks more like a Super villain.

Like I said in the Peyton Manning injury thread, there has never been another team in a situation like the Colts could be in. The closest examples are:

Marino and the Dolphins - Coming off a Superbowl loss and have Dan Marino fall right into their laps. But that was at the very end of the round.

Young and the 49ers - They traded some peanuts for Steve Young and let him sit behind Montana. It was more of a reclamation project for them though.

Rodgers and the Packers - Again, the Packers were still a contending team who had Rodgers fall into their laps.


Now, I have a feeling that the Colts will win just enough games to render the #1 pick talk pointless, but even with a pick later in the top 10 they could still find themselves in position for another top QB prospect who they should definitely consider.

keylime_5
09-09-2011, 02:22 PM
Indy would be the luckiest ass team ever if they draft Peyton Manning #1 overall the year after they have total suckiness and then draft Andrew Luck #1 overall when Peyton is 36 and coming off neck surgery to be his heir apparent.

To answer the question, in this hypothetical scenario I think Indy takes Luck and doesn't think twice, but they could also trade that pick for a king's ransom if they want. Teams would be willing to pay Eli Manning type payment and more to get Luck. The thing is, if Indy drafts Luck and assuming Manning's neck is okay after this year, he probably has 4 more years left before he starts to really decline. I really think Manning could play until he's in his 40s b/c of his smarts and his quick release that rarely ever sees him get hit or hurt that much. Brett Favre got hit all the time and was always hurt, Manning doesn't even get hit that much in his career so far with his style of play. It would be more ideal for Indy to draft a succesor in about 2 years instead of right now.

LonghornsLegend
09-09-2011, 02:28 PM
Joe Montana did play for the Chiefs guys, in case any of you forgot. Brett Favre for the Vikings? Just because Peyton has something left in the tank doesn't mean Indy has to committ to him every single year he wants to play football. Facts are nobody really knows what Peyton has left after missing a season due to neck surgery.


We don't know what level he'll play off, if his decline will start to be sharper, and it isn't crazy to think Luck in his 2nd year in the NFL would be better then Peyton at 38 years old. At least the difference wouldn't be that big considering Luck's arrow would be pointing straight up in the air and the Colts would be looking to find a replacement at the end of round 1 instead of prime position now.


I don't know why people keep acting like the Colts have no choice but to keep Peyton. I just see very little chance any team picking #1 trades, or doesn't take Luck. Especially the Colts who'd be looking at a 37 year old QB who just missed an entire season due to neck surgery.

MetSox17
09-09-2011, 02:28 PM
I'd still take Matt Barkley or Landry Jones if i'm the Colts. Those guys are studs talent-wise and have shown they can perform at the collegiate level. I'd just be interested in seeing how they turn out after being behind Manning for a few years.

niel89
09-09-2011, 02:36 PM
Indy would be the luckiest ass team ever if they draft Peyton Manning #1 overall the year after they have total suckiness and then draft Andrew Luck #1 overall when Peyton is 36 and coming off neck surgery to be his heir apparent.

To answer the question, in this hypothetical scenario I think Indy takes Luck and doesn't think twice, but they could also trade that pick for a king's ransom if they want. Teams would be willing to pay Eli Manning type payment and more to get Luck. The thing is, if Indy drafts Luck and assuming Manning's neck is okay after this year, he probably has 4 more years left before he starts to really decline. I really think Manning could play until he's in his 40s b/c of his smarts and his quick release that rarely ever sees him get hit or hurt that much. Brett Favre got hit all the time and was always hurt, Manning doesn't even get hit that much in his career so far with his style of play. It would be more ideal for Indy to draft a succesor in about 2 years instead of right now.

Great point. As long as the rest of Mannings career isn't at risk, they could easily hold off of picking up a heir for a couple more seasons. A couple of years of just sitting and learning is a major advantage to a young QB that most new guys just don't get.

However, if Luck is there, they just have to take him. Not because they need him, but because Luck is suck a rare prospect that they just can't pass on him.The odds that a QB of similar quality will be available in 2 years is low and they might not even be in a position to snag the QB if they don't have a top pick. Taking him also keeps him away from another team.

The beautiful thing would be that Luck would be perfect behind Manning. Luck is very humble and would welcome the chance to learn from one of the all time greats. He wouldn't be cocky and complain or anything. Luck also would be a great fit because he would be able to actually absorb and handle all the information that Manning uses, not every QB can mentally understand what Manning does. Luck has a masterful control of a fairly complex college offense and I believe that he could do the same at the next level with some time.

BeerBaron
09-09-2011, 02:38 PM
I'd still take Matt Barkley or Landry Jones if i'm the Colts. Those guys are studs talent-wise and have shown they can perform at the collegiate level. I'd just be interested in seeing how they turn out after being behind Manning for a few years.

"Still take" as in "still take them even if they don't get Luck," right? Not "still take them over Luck," right?

Because I agree with the former, and if the latter, well I challenge you to a duel sir. Pistols at dawn.


However, if Luck is there, they just have to take him. Not because they need him, but because Luck is suck a rare prospect that they just can't pass on him.The odds that a QB of similar quality will be available in 2 years is low and they might not even be in a position to snag the QB if they don't have a top pick. Taking him also keeps him away from another team.


This is some sort of horrible Freudian slip.

mqtirishfan
09-09-2011, 02:39 PM
What about a team like Jacksonville, Carolina, Minnesota even? Not great QB situations but invested a 1st in a QB last year. They don't go Luck.

Then they trade back, maybe even to number 2 or 3 and get a huge return.

Saints-Tigers
09-09-2011, 02:43 PM
LMAO at not taking Luck because you have Gabbert or Ponder, hahahahahha

MetSox17
09-09-2011, 02:46 PM
"Still take" as in "still take them even if they don't get Luck," right? Not "still take them over Luck," right?

Because I agree with the former, and if the latter, well I challenge you to a duel sir. Pistols at dawn.



It is indeed the former. Also, you don't want to duel with me. I don't believe in pistols. I live by the border. You know how many AK47s i have?

But, since we both have a completely heterosexual (and not gey at all, like, totally not gey) infatuation with Mr. Andrew Luck, i will disregard this offense you've brought upon me and my family. Consider yourself lucky, sir.

keylime_5
09-09-2011, 02:46 PM
If I'm Minnesota or Jacksonville and I have the #1 pick I'd take Luck in a heartbeat unless Ponder or Gabbert have very good rookie seasons. Carolina is a little more of a difficult decision. If Newton is completely awful and they get #1 overall again they'd be foolish to pass on Luck. Unless they were convinced that Newton was a franchise QB it'd not make sense to pass on a guy they would've taken the year before without a doubt over Newton. It would certainly be interesting to see, a team drafting a QB #1 overall in consecutive years. Not to mention taking Clausen in round 2 the year before. It would really make Carolina's talent evaluators look like dopes.

jth1331
09-09-2011, 03:16 PM
Say the Bills get the 5th pick, Colts 1st.
Say the Bills offer the Colts the 5th pick, their 2nd round pick and next year's 1st pick to the Colts for their first pick.
What then?

Matthew Jones
09-09-2011, 03:18 PM
Say the Bills get the 5th pick, Colts 1st.
Say the Bills offer the Colts the 5th pick, their 2nd round pick and next year's 1st pick to the Colts for their first pick.
What then?

Then the Colts hang up the phone.

jrdrylie
09-09-2011, 03:22 PM
Say the Bills get the 5th pick, Colts 1st.
Say the Bills offer the Colts the 5th pick, their 2nd round pick and next year's 1st pick to the Colts for their first pick.
What then?

Take the trade. And then do one of these things

1). Take Barkley or Jones at five. At 33, take a receiver (Floyd or Fuller if available). Take a defensive back at 2:05
2). Take Alshon Jeffery or Justin Blackmon at five. Take Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles, or whomever else is their highest rated QB on the board. Take a defensive back at 2:05.

Saints-Tigers
09-09-2011, 03:24 PM
Justin Blackmon, Nick Foles+ 2013 first rounder<<<<<Luck

LonghornsLegend
09-09-2011, 04:07 PM
Then the Colts hang up the phone.

Exactly. I know people are coming up with hypotheticals, but with the contract hurdles out of the way for #1 picks that isn't NEARLY enough to get Luck. If that's all it's gonna take Harbaugh is a lock to get him. It'd be close to one of those mortaging an entire draft type of deal, Ricky Williams type of offer.


A 2nd and a 1st isn't gonna be enough no matter who it is. We've already seen much bigger offers then that in the draft, and if your just giving away a franchise QB I'd want more too, or just keep him.

SRK85
09-09-2011, 04:28 PM
Doubt it. Manning will play for another 3-5 years for the Colts. I doubt they would take Luck and let him sit on the bench for at least two years. If they acquire Luck via the draft, well then they should trade him for future picks. Luck would demand a king's bounty.

ATLDirtyBirds
09-09-2011, 04:44 PM
Justin Blackmon, Nick Foles+ 2013 first rounder<<<<<Luck

If only Foles was good.

Brent
09-09-2011, 06:15 PM
I don't see how this is debatable. The Colts could potentially have that QB position secure for three decades (spanning from Manning going at #1 though Luck's potential career).

San Diego Chicken
09-09-2011, 06:29 PM
To me, the advantage of Luck is that the learning curve should be very quick for him. He should be ready to use out of the box, so therefore I don't see any point in him being seasoned. In all honesty, I'd just hand him the keys and trade Peyton away, creating far more cap flexibility. Then go out and spend the money to make sure the team around Luck is top notch. I'd keep Peyton at that cap number for one year at the most if you've drafted Luck, it's just too much money.

killxswitch
09-09-2011, 06:45 PM
To me, the advantage of Luck is that the learning curve should be very quick for him. He should be ready to use out of the box, so therefore I don't see any point in him being seasoned. In all honesty, I'd just hand him the keys and trade Peyton away, creating far more cap flexibility. Then go out and spend the money to make sure the team around Luck is top notch. I'd keep Peyton at that cap number for one year at the most if you've drafted Luck, it's just too much money.

No rookie QB is ready "out of the box". Manning himself was horrible his rookie year. You don't draft Luck and immediately trade Manning.

San Diego Chicken
09-09-2011, 07:15 PM
No rookie QB is ready "out of the box". Manning himself was horrible his rookie year. You don't draft Luck and immediately trade Manning.

The thought is that Luck is far further ahead of the curve than most rookie NFL QB's and ready to start right away and not a raw developmental prospect. Fair point, but how do you improve the team in the meanwhile with approximately one quarter of your payroll devoted to one position? Wayne and Mathis are free agents after this season too, and Freeney the year after. You're either re-loading, or rebuilding. Drafting Luck to me means purging the payroll and re-building.

PossibleCabbage
09-09-2011, 10:06 PM
What about a team like Jacksonville, Carolina, Minnesota even? Not great QB situations but invested a 1st in a QB last year. They don't go Luck.

Whether it's New England, Atlanta, Green Bay, Pittsburgh or Carolina, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tennessee I'm taking Luck in a heartbeat. Those first four teams will just trade him away that weekend, the last four should see if anybody wants to trade for Newton, Ponder, Gabbert, and Locker.

Spectre
09-09-2011, 11:30 PM
When the Colts have a healthy franchise QB, they're a Super Bowl contender. When he's not, a thread like this that hypothetically gives the Colts the worst record in the league is a completely legitimate thought.

It answers itself...

Flyboy
09-10-2011, 12:45 PM
The Colts gotta take Luck in the scenario.

In fact, there are only two or three teams that should even think about passing on Luck.

I'm interested to know which 2-3 teams you were referring to, Scott..

BamaFalcon59
09-10-2011, 12:53 PM
Uh, it's definitely more than 2-3...

Falcon's wouldn't consider it unless it was for trade purposes.

Halsey
09-10-2011, 12:54 PM
No team is going to just pass on Luck at #1 for another player. Either a team is going to take him #1 or trade the pick for a load of picks/players. His value is just too high. Even if the Packers pick #1, they wouldn't pass on him. That would be like passing on a $100 bill to take a $50 bill, simply because you already have a $100 bill. You trade one of your $100 bills for a $50, 2 $20s and a $10.

Flyboy
09-10-2011, 01:14 PM
Did you really just say the Packers wouldn't pass on Andrew Luck? To me, that's the definition of hyperbole.

BeerBaron
09-10-2011, 01:31 PM
I'm guessing the 2-3 he means are 2-3 that have a realistic shot of actually picking that high.

So take out the Superbowl/playoff contenders who are impossibly unlikely to be picking that high...Green Bay, Philly, New Orleans, Atlanta, San Diego, New England, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, NY Giants, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and I'll even throw in Houston.

The Bears and Cowboys could certainly be playoff teams imo, but if they aren't, they could be in for a regime change and the new staff may want their own QB. Even then, i don't think they'd be in position for Luck because I can't see either being #1 pick bad.

I'm going to piss of Chiefs fans but I still don't think Matt Cassel is a franchise QB, so if they were in position to take Luck, they should. I doubt they'll pick high enough for that though.

I also didn't list Detroit because if Stafford were to get hurt again, and no one should rule that out, they might need to consider moving on to a new QB if in position to take one.

So leaves us with:
Minnesota
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Buffalo
Miami
Washington
Jacksonville
Indy
Tennessee
Carolina
Arizona
San Fran
Seattle
Denver
Oakland

The bolded teams are ones that drafted QBs high just last year. Cincinnati is the only one I could see taking Luck if they drafted that high. The others, and I know that this sounds ridiculous but, would stick with their other recent first rounders IMO. So I'm sorry to say to fans of those teams that even if you're in position to draft Luck, I think you'll pass.

I'll also finally take out Arizona because of how much they gave up to get Kevin Kolb. There is a small chance that if they are bad enough to have a shot at luck, Whisenhunt and crew could be fired and the new staff might take Luck, not feeling as attached to Kolb. So they have a small chance.

And yes, San Fran just drafted Kaepernick, but I don't think Harbaugh would pass on a chance to reunite with Luck.

And of course, we're all debating Indy right now.

So, my list of teams who would draft Luck without hesitation are:
Cleveland
Cincy
Buffalo
Miami
Washington
San Fran
Seattle
Oakland
Denver

Halsey
09-10-2011, 01:34 PM
Did you really just say the Packers wouldn't pass on Andrew Luck? To me, that's the definition of hyperbole.

Nope, they wouldn't pass on him because they'd have traded the #1 pick before the Draft started.

49ers1984
09-10-2011, 08:11 PM
Nope, they wouldn't pass on him because they'd have traded the #1 pick before the Draft started.

You know there is another option? If you already have a starting qb take another player who you think could have a huge impact. Of course this depends on the draft and if there are other must get players. If their is a Ndamukong Suh or Jake Long you take them.Their is no reason to take another qb just to sit on the bench and eat up salary when you get another player who can play and make an instant impact.

Halsey
09-10-2011, 08:18 PM
You know there is another option? If you already have a starting qb take another player who you think could have a huge impact.

An NFL team is not going to pass on a player of that value, even if they don't need him, when they can instead trade down, get a package of picks/players, and still potentially get the other player they want. Some team with a very high 1st round pick would want to trade up for Luck. The team with the #1 pick might be able to move down to #2 or #3 and still get additional picks/players. Passing on Luck will only happen in the mind of fans. Luck is going #1, no matter who finishes the season with the #1 pick.

PossibleCabbage
09-10-2011, 09:09 PM
An NFL team is not going to pass on a player of that valuable, even if they don't need him, when they can instead trade down, get a package of picks/players, and still potentially get the other player they want.

Especially not the Packers, as their GM is very much a value-oriented drafter. If trading the #1 overall pick/the rights to Luck gets you more total value than any other player you could select at that spot, then you do it in a heartbeat.

The Packers would take Luck in the improbable situation that they would select first, but they would trade away his rights before the draft is over.

But if you're picking #1 overall, the sensible thing is to take Luck. Whether it's to trade him or to play him depends on which team ends up picking there.

Rabscuttle
09-10-2011, 10:28 PM
The only way they would pass on Luck is if they liked Barkley more and could fleece the team in the two slot and still get the guy they wanted. With Manning's career and the relationship they have enjoyed the chances of them not grading out the more cerebral guy (Luck) higher is pretty slim.

With a really good showing this year Barkley could really close the gap for some talent evaluators. It's a long shot, but there's a reason final grades don't come in until late in the process.

keylime_5
09-10-2011, 10:49 PM
no one is gonna pass on Luck for Barkley. It's one thing that he doesn't do anything as well as Luck, it's another that he's only like 6'1".

Cardinal96
09-10-2011, 11:04 PM
There is too much value in Luck not to take him with the number 1 overall pick. But if I am a colts fan, the thought of having Luck as the successor to Peyton would be awesome. I am a Steelers fan and am hoping Pittsburgh can somehow get him. I think he will be (much) better than Big Ben.

indyfan1985
09-10-2011, 11:38 PM
To me, the advantage of Luck is that the learning curve should be very quick for him. He should be ready to use out of the box, so therefore I don't see any point in him being seasoned. In all honesty, I'd just hand him the keys and trade Peyton away, creating far more cap flexibility. Then go out and spend the money to make sure the team around Luck is top notch. I'd keep Peyton at that cap number for one year at the most if you've drafted Luck, it's just too much money.

The NFL is a business, and if the Colts had the #1 overall pick they have to take Luck. I think Luck would only need to sit and learn for a year, maybe 2 at the most. After that, he needs to start. So if that means trading Manning when he is healthy and good again, thats what that means. And hopefully we'd get something good in return even if he is up there in age.

tuan33
09-11-2011, 01:49 AM
Would it make more sense to draft a QB prospect with overwhelming physical gifts like Robert Griffin if you're going to let him set 4-5 years anyways. Then trade the 1st overall pick for more picks to stock that team up with talent.

Sloopy
09-11-2011, 09:10 AM
The thought is that Luck is far further ahead of the curve than most rookie NFL QB's and ready to start right away and not a raw developmental prospect. Fair point, but how do you improve the team in the meanwhile with approximately one quarter of your payroll devoted to one position? Wayne and Mathis are free agents after this season too, and Freeney the year after. You're either re-loading, or rebuilding. Drafting Luck to me means purging the payroll and re-building.

The answer is that you dont. The scenario which you have just implied is the real life scenario for the Colts for the last decade while Manning has been there.

The fact that we are even having this discussion speaks to how badly the organization has been run for the last decade. If your team is dependent on one guy and if you dont have him you go from playoff contender to possible first round pick then imagine how good you could have been if there was a real team around that guy.

People think Polian is some draft guru but he has essentially ridden Peytons coat tails for almost his entire tenure with the Colts.

Brent
09-11-2011, 10:22 AM
People think Polian is some draft guru but he has essentially ridden Peytons coat tails for almost his entire tenure with the Colts.
He rode Jim Kelly's coattails before that.

bearsfan_51
09-11-2011, 10:30 AM
The Colts are just so hard to predict. Needless to say if Peyton is out for the year, they could be the worst team in the league. So, excluding the Colts, these would be my eleven (because I think 7-11 is really close) worst teams in the league:

1) Carolina (Newton)
2) Buffalo
3) Denver
4) Cincinnati
5) Miami
6) Jacksonville (Gabbart)
7) Cleveland
8) Seattle
9) Minnesota (Ponder)
10) Arizona (Kolb)
11) Washington

Take out the four with investments in young QB's and I think that's your top 7. I also think that assures we see at least three quarterbacks go in the top 15 picks. Again.

PossibleCabbage
09-11-2011, 01:02 PM
So, excluding the Colts, these would be my eleven (because I think 7-11 is really close) worst teams in the league:

1) Carolina (Newton)
...
6) Jacksonville (Gabbart)
...
9) Minnesota (Ponder)
10) Arizona (Kolb)

Take out the four with investments in young QB's and I think that's your top 7.

Personally, if I'm the GM for Carolina, Jacksonville, Minnesota, or Arizona I would take Andrew Luck at #1 overall. He's a much better pro prospect than Newton, Gabbert, Ponder, and Kolb, and he's likely a rare QB prospect that you can't really afford to pass up on if you have the chance to take him (I have a higher grade on Luck already than on any QB since Palmer.) At the very least, you draft him and wait for offers to come in.

Flyboy
09-11-2011, 02:36 PM
With everything that Arizona gave to give up Kolb, I just couldn't forsee them taking Luck even with the #1 overall pick.

BeerBaron
09-11-2011, 02:37 PM
Can we remove the "Hypothetical" from this thread title yet?

PossibleCabbage
09-11-2011, 03:06 PM
With everything that Arizona gave to give up Kolb, I just couldn't forsee them taking Luck even with the #1 overall pick.

If they like Kolb more than Luck, the sensible play here is still "draft Luck, and trade his rights to the QB-needy team picking in the top 5 who selects a player you like for the rights to that player and additional players/picks."

I mean, they could select Matt Kalil at #1, or they could select Andrew Luck and then trade him for Matt Kalil+additional picks.

singe_101
09-11-2011, 04:06 PM
I don't think the Colts will have the no. 1 pick, which would involve 12+ losses. It might not be a Cassel situation but with Collins they could win 6, 7.

But if it does happen, take him. Maybe cash him into the Skins for Orakpo and three first-rounders, heh.

Indy would be the luckiest ass team ever if they draft Peyton Manning #1 overall the year after they have total suckiness and then draft Andrew Luck #1 overall when Peyton is 36 and coming off neck surgery to be his heir apparent.


Are we limiting this to the NFL? They can't even play at the same time like Duncan and Robinson.

descendency
09-11-2011, 04:38 PM
Can we remove the "Hypothetical" from this thread title yet?

Matt Millen tells Bill Pollian that he is especially found of passion fruit in his fruit baskets. . . (you know... the one Pollian will send him thanking him for saving him from being the first GM to go 0-16)

BeerBaron
09-12-2011, 10:56 AM
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/12/for-colts-peyton-manning-could-give-way-to-andrew-luck/

We're not supposed to read into it too much, but Polian was personally scouting the Stanford/Duke game this weekend. And I have some doubts that he was there for any Duke players...

That article also mentions something very interesting should the Colts pass on Luck (or, if not picking #1, another top QB like Barkley or Jones if available.)

Pro Football Hall of Famer Terry Bradshaw said Sunday on FOX that Manning’s situation reminds him of his own situation late in his career with the Steelers. After Bradshaw had offseason elbow surgery in 1983, he told the Steelers that he’d be ready to go even though, he now says, “I knew I could not play.” Bradshaw’s elbow injury was so severe that he was able to play in just one more NFL game before it forced him to retire, but the Steelers believed Bradshaw when he said he was healthy and decided to pass on Dan Marino in the 1983 NFL draft.

ChiefMojo
09-12-2011, 04:33 PM
How horrible the Chiefs look right now they are going to be a player in this Andrew Luck sweep stakes as well. Not only have the last two games of last season been atrocious, but the whole pre-season and first game were a abortion.

It is all on Matt Cassel's shoulders. If he can't perform, he will get replaced... for sure if the Chiefs can't win a game.

No Eric Berry or Tony Moeaki for the rest of the year! I doubt Haley has a job after the season also.

The Chiefs easiest part of their schedule is to start the season, but frankly they don't look ready to play. One mid-season hits, they go on a death march of a schedule.

I was thinking the Chiefs were a 8-8 team, but now they are likely a 2-3 win team at best until proven otherwise.

nobodyinparticular
09-12-2011, 04:44 PM
Peyton Manning is going to be 36 years old before the NFL draft. Even without any injury to the franchise QB, the Colts would be stupid to pass up on Andrew Luck. There just aren't very many players who play well into their late 30s, even at the QB position. Since 1970, there have been a total of 18 QB seasons with a QB rating over 90 and 11 of those came at age 36 and 37. Manning realistically only had this year and maybe next that we could expect at an elite level and maybe a total of 3 seasons as a good/great QB. With the career uncertainty added by the neck injury, a no-brainer becomes a non-starter.

Colts take Andrew Luck in the first round if he's available. Period.

keylime_5
09-12-2011, 04:52 PM
How horrible the Chiefs look right now they are going to be a player in this Andrew Luck sweep stakes as well. Not only have the last two games of last season been atrocious, but the whole pre-season and first game were a abortion.

It is all on Matt Cassel's shoulders. If he can't perform, he will get replaced... for sure if the Chiefs can't win a game.

No Eric Berry or Tony Moeaki for the rest of the year! I doubt Haley has a job after the season also.

The Chiefs easiest part of their schedule is to start the season, but frankly they don't look ready to play. One mid-season hits, they go on a death march of a schedule.

I was thinking the Chiefs were a 8-8 team, but now they are likely a 2-3 win team at best until proven otherwise.

c'mon, they're not gonna fire a guy who just won the division the year before, especially if he has a bad season that is affected by a mess of injuries to key players like this one has been so far. Haley should be safe this year. The real pressure is on Cassel to prove to the front office that they don't need to take a good young QB prospect if one is available.

cmarq83
09-12-2011, 05:04 PM
How horrible the Chiefs look right now they are going to be a player in this Andrew Luck sweep stakes as well. Not only have the last two games of last season been atrocious, but the whole pre-season and first game were a abortion.

It is all on Matt Cassel's shoulders. If he can't perform, he will get replaced... for sure if the Chiefs can't win a game.

No Eric Berry or Tony Moeaki for the rest of the year! I doubt Haley has a job after the season also.

The Chiefs easiest part of their schedule is to start the season, but frankly they don't look ready to play. One mid-season hits, they go on a death march of a schedule.

I was thinking the Chiefs were a 8-8 team, but now they are likely a 2-3 win team at best until proven otherwise.

So after a 10 win season, and a single ugly opening day loss the Chiefs are a 2-3 win team until proven otherwise? Keep in mind that they do play the Broncos twice.

Seamus2602
09-12-2011, 06:14 PM
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/12/for-colts-peyton-manning-could-give-way-to-andrew-luck/

We're not supposed to read into it too much, but Polian was personally scouting the Stanford/Duke game this weekend. And I have some doubts that he was there for any Duke players...

That article also mentions something very interesting should the Colts pass on Luck (or, if not picking #1, another top QB like Barkley or Jones if available.)

It mightn't have anything to do with scouting. Brian Polian is the Special Teams Co-Ordinator at Stanford.

Byrd430
09-12-2011, 11:39 PM
Here's my thing...

If Manning isn't healthy, declining, or anything short of the true Peyton Manning, then the Colts need many many pieces to be contenders again.

If Luck is the next Manning, (didn't people say the same about Bradford last year?), then the Colts don't need that many pieces to contend.

Talk about LUCKy if the Colts could pull this off.

niel89
09-12-2011, 11:47 PM
It mightn't have anything to do with scouting. Brian Polian is the Special Teams Co-Ordinator at Stanford.

I wonder if coaching special teams is his way of rebelling against his dad.

killxswitch
09-13-2011, 10:30 AM
It mightn't have anything to do with scouting. Brian Polian is the Special Teams Co-Ordinator at Stanford.

Bill Polian said himself he is scouting QBs, on his radio show. He was not just there to see his son.

LonghornsLegend
09-30-2011, 07:02 PM
If Peyton does never play another snap again, at least it'll be remembered even more so how remarkable he made a piss poor team look. I'm not gonna act like he hasn't had some talented teams, and especially defenses, but even with a competent back-up QB this team was going nowhere.


Really magnifies the difference in a well run organization like NE, who can lose Brady for the season, plug in an average QB and still win 11 games. There are so many positions that need filled on this team right now, and even when they start to be competitive Freeney and Mathis will need to be replaced.


I could see them cleaning house depending on the recovery of Peyton.

Iamcanadian
10-01-2011, 01:48 PM
Whoever gets the #1 pick will simply trade their starter and go with Luck. With the rookie salary cap, Indy can carry both Peyton and Luck and won't trade either.
No bottom team outside of Indy would retain the current QB. They will trade him for more picks. the Kolb's, Cassel's and others would all be traded.

bam bam
10-01-2011, 02:34 PM
If I were the Colts, on top of drafting Luck I would start trading their valuable but aging stars for extra draft picks as well. Its time to reload. And if they aren't drafting #1, trade those players to help get up to #1 so you can still keep some draft picks.

This is if Manning is really near the end, of course. If not, they might as well hold on to what they got and try and run with it while hes around.

CC.SD
10-02-2011, 10:49 AM
This is a no brainer that they would draft him. Not a big discussion point in this thread, but who would the alternative even be? Blackmon? Trent Richardson/Kalil/one of the DEs? There's just no chance any of these guys get drafted before Luck.

OSUGiants17
10-02-2011, 10:53 AM
IMO too much money in Peyton, they would either trade down and hope for Kalil or Martin or stay put and take Kalil #1.

Cardinal96
10-02-2011, 11:42 AM
IMO too much money in Peyton, they would either trade down and hope for Kalil or Martin or stay put and take Kalil #1.

Barring an unforeseen injury or catastrophic event around Andrew Luck, there is no chance that any team drafts anyone other than Andrew Luck if they have the first pick of the draft. If a team is in need of a QB or basically doesn't already have a franchise QB, they will draft Luck for the future of their franchise. If they do have a franchise QB (ie Aaron Rodgers), they will likely look to trade this pick for a platoon of picks. And if they don't get a trade done by the time they draft, they will STILL draft Andrew Luck first overall. He is worth so much more than any other draft pick it is not even comparable. Then possibly they could look to trade him. With the rookie cap, he will be a bargain too.

killxswitch
10-02-2011, 03:29 PM
IMO too much money in Peyton, they would either trade down and hope for Kalil or Martin or stay put and take Kalil #1.

Luck's $7 million/year is not going to keep the Colts from drafting him. Not with Manning coming off 3 neck surgeries.

vidae
10-02-2011, 03:36 PM
Luck's $7 million/year is not going to keep the Colts from drafting him. Not with Manning coming off 3 neck surgeries.

You guys will beat the Chiefs next week, so!

Rabscuttle
10-02-2011, 04:03 PM
Chiefs-Colts- suxk for Luck - Battle of the practice rosters. Can you imagine paying to sit in the stands for that ****?

SickwithIt1010
10-02-2011, 04:16 PM
The colts would be stupid not to take Luck...

MichaelJordanEberle (sabf)
10-02-2011, 04:20 PM
The worst thing about the Colts sucking ass is that flex scheduling hasn't started yet.

And yes, they should. It really isn't a lot of money. Luck's not getting a $50M check.

TACKLE
10-02-2011, 04:27 PM
You guys will beat the Chiefs next week, so!

but you guys already have a solid qb.

wogitalia
10-03-2011, 12:39 AM
The real question is will the Vikes draft Luck with the #1 pick having reached massively on Ponder last year already, remember this is the Vikes and good draft decisions are not allowed when considering your answer...

/Vent.

Colts would be stupid not to take Luck imo. Whether it be to trade or keep him, remember that Peyton would also have ridiculous trade value should he come back and they decide it's time to move on and rebuild(and really Peyton looks to be the reason they need to rebuild by carrying that sorry ass roster to where they've been).

Caulibflower
10-03-2011, 01:55 AM
I'm not sure they do. My initial reaction was, "Yes, they should take Luck and if Peyton can still play, Luck learns for a few years and then assumes the throne when King Manning abdicates." But... I just have to say that I don't know enough about Peyton's injury. If he can come back and play for even three more years, I don't think they draft Luck. They'll still be trying to win the Super Bowl. They'd be wanting other pieces. I don't think a team with a closing window drafts for after the window shuts; they draft to win, and a #1 overall choice is too valuable to that team to sit it on the bench. It sounds like a great idea to have Manning tutor Luck, but the reality it that's not the way to win a Super Bowl anytime soon. There are, and will be, other great quarterbacks drafted in the coming years. Responding to this thread is making me realize how ridiculous the Luck hype is right now.

killxswitch
10-03-2011, 09:38 AM
There are some rumors swirling around Coltsland that Manning is done. Not for the year, for his career. Nothing at all confirmed, just rumor, but there's zero reason to believe anything the Colts org says about his health. When you lie about injuries for years you make it so you can't dispell rumors, because no one will believe you.

Supposedly during the 2nd procedure the doctors damaged a nerve that can't be repaired and Manning has no shoulder strength anymore.

BeerBaron
10-03-2011, 09:42 AM
There are some rumors swirling around Coltsland that Manning is done. Not for the year, for his career. Nothing at all confirmed, just rumor, but there's zero reason to believe anything the Colts org says about his health. When you lie about injuries for years you make it so you can't dispell rumors, because no one will believe you.

Supposedly during the 2nd procedure the doctors damaged a nerve that can't be repaired and Manning has no shoulder strength anymore.

It seems like everything in this entire situation started off as rumors, so I'm not dismissing anything I hear about it.

That's really unfortunate if true though. He was on pace to own ever record in the books if he could play a few more years. Now he'll be in the Gale Sayers category of "what could have been..."

LonghornsLegend
10-03-2011, 10:13 AM
I always thought Peyton was gonna still play at a high level during his late 30's. Not record setting pace but he was smart enough that even when his arm wasn't dominant anymore his accuracy would still be tops. Hate that his career could possibly end.


It'd just be weird for his career to end and last I saw him he was throwing the ball around fine at the end of the season.

MaxV
10-03-2011, 10:34 AM
There are some rumors swirling around Coltsland that Manning is done. Not for the year, for his career. Nothing at all confirmed, just rumor, but there's zero reason to believe anything the Colts org says about his health. When you lie about injuries for years you make it so you can't dispell rumors, because no one will believe you.

Supposedly during the 2nd procedure the doctors damaged a nerve that can't be repaired and Manning has no shoulder strength anymore.

I'm still hoping that he'll be able to come back. And if that's the case, my first choice would be to get a King's ransome for 1st overall.

But if that rumor is correct then they shouldn't even pick up the phone, just take Luck.

Razor
10-03-2011, 11:09 AM
I have a sneaking suspicion that we can just remove the hypothetical part from the title of this thread in a few short months (unless you're a Colts fan. In that case it'll be some very long months). The Colts should just go ahead and select Luck even if Manning comes back. Give him a year or two behind Manning and then go on to dominate for another decade in the AFCS. This is a no-brainer in my opinion.

PrimeTime
10-03-2011, 11:28 AM
IF the Colts have the number one pick they would be insane NOT to pick Andrew Luck.

Look, even if Peyton is healthy, the guy is still 35 years old and obviously won't have much left in the tank regardless (especially considering having a serious neck injury).

Even if you draft him and let him sit behind Manning for a year or so, the Colts have to realize it's high time to draft a future franchise QB and this is the perfect scenario to do so.

killxswitch
10-03-2011, 11:29 AM
I agree. If Manning is out for the year (I'm positive he is) then there's no reason to believe he'll play another 4 or 5 years. 3 max, more likely 2. That's a good stretch of time for Luck to sit in the film room with Manning and learn to break down defenses from the best.

And with the rookie salary cap the team will actually be able to afford it.

It would take a pretty incredible trade offer for me to be ok with the Colts trading down.

Flyboy
02-13-2012, 12:39 AM
Nope, I can't read the future.

PossibleCabbage
02-13-2012, 01:52 AM
I wonder if this is the earliest in a season that the SWDC community consensus nailed both the team and the player at the #1 overall pick.

AntoinCD
02-13-2012, 11:59 AM
Well Im picking next year's already. New York Giants and Matt Barkley.

First time ever a team has won the Superbowl and the next year were the worst team in the league.

Also first time ever two brothers have gone from being franchise QBs to being dumped in consecutive years.