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View Full Version : The Patriots Masterful Short and Long Term Strategy


whokevjones
12-16-2011, 11:09 AM
I'm not claiming to be a Patriots expert but I have the utmost respect for their philosophy on how to develop a team. These are some theories I have about their organizational structure. I believe no team has ever prepared for the long-term team like the Patriots has done (most recently this past draft and next).

**Pats fans I would love to hear your comments if you agree/disagree with me on any of my claims**

The Patriots team construction philosophy is simply: It's just like a game of football; Let the other team(s) show what they are trying to implement and then construct a 3 year plan to negate all of their strengths (While still winning). There is no DEF/OFF scheme they need to run, they run what will win them games. I know this sounds Cliche but for the Pats it's not.

1. Strategy #1: Over the past 5 years the majority of NFL teams has slowly implemented the 3-4 Defense as their base scheme.

The Patriots saw this trend starting and they changed back to 4-3/ Hybrid. I believe they switched for two reasons:

1. They knew the bubble would burst and rush Lber's would become free agents and teams would grossly overpay which is not how you win.

2. With the rise of 3-4 defenses means an increase in 4-3 defense players who will fall in the draft because of not fitting the other teams schemes. The Pats can capitalize on this by drafting more talented players late and also picking up the "tweeners" the 3-4 cut after a year or two. If everyones reaching for 3-4 rush lber's then why would a team not change to 4-3 and get top talent at the end of the 1st. (I wont even mention them accumulating picks)

2. Strategy #2: Once again taking other teams strengths and neutralizing them. I knew the two TE set would negate a lot of what the 3-4 teams could do with 3-4 rush OLB. But the two TE's MUST each be a completely different type of TE. (one who excels at blocking but with good hands (Dewayne Allen/Brandon Pettigrew type of TE). Gronk is just that TE mold but just a much better receiver.
The next TE (Aaron Hernandez) is needed to spread the field and make a LB or safety guard him.

BOTH are essential in the package to negate 3-4 pass rush.

In Conclusion: If Solder develops and they get some more help along the O-line and sign a solid Big WR target who can stretch the field I think their offense will be more challenging for defenses to game plan for then the Packers, which is saying a lot, because of the ridiculous amount of offensive formations they can run. If their Defense is healthy they can go from worst to Top 15 in one year because the are already so deep at so many offenses positions they can use the majority of their draft on defense.

**I also have several reasons for why drafting two rb's consecutively was also brillant and just another way of building a team. But this was wayy to long already but I'd love a good debate about the RB selections.

DraftSavant
12-16-2011, 11:29 AM
I agree with a lot of this post.

I think the RB selections were ******* brilliant, too. Both of those guys are more talented than BJGE/Woodhead (and the Pats aren't going to pay either of those guys...they'll let them walk and let some other team overpay them). Once that happens, they plug the two new RBs in.

I will say, though, that I really think BB has become over-extended in his duties. He needs another personnel man with him, even if it's just somebody to be a contrarian and challenge his thoughts once in a while.

BeerBaron
12-16-2011, 11:39 AM
I think you forgot a key part too: When, a year or two from now, they trade Brady for picks right before he starts to decline and move seamlessly onto Ryan Mallett.

DraftSavant
12-16-2011, 11:41 AM
I think you forgot a key part too: When, a year or two from now, they trade Brady for picks right before he starts to decline and move seamlessly onto Ryan Mallett.

Yup, can't forget that, either.

killxswitch
12-16-2011, 11:55 AM
It's a nice idea but it hasn't exactly worked yet. I wouldn't call it masterful until it is proven to work. The defense is terrible. Obviously the 2 TE set is working so sure, give them credit for the idea and for drafting two great players.

BeerBaron
12-16-2011, 12:00 PM
It's a nice idea but it hasn't exactly worked yet. I wouldn't call it masterful until it is proven to work. The defense is terrible. Obviously the 2 TE set is working so sure, give them credit for the idea and for drafting two great players.

Regularly running multiple TE sets is proving to be a great thing for teams who do it.

TMQ usually points it out that the teams who frequently run multiple TE sets (Packers, Texans, Patriots) are some of the most successful in the league right now.

One great TE creates a matchup problem, often too big for a safety and too fast for a LB to cover. But teams can double up one great TE and neutralize him.

You put TWO quality TEs on the field and opposing defense have no answer.

SFbear
12-16-2011, 12:08 PM
You put TWO quality TEs on the field and opposing defense have no answer.

MIke Martz-"What is this? I don't even..."

BeerBaron
12-16-2011, 12:10 PM
MIke Martz-"What is this? I don't even..."

Yeah. I know....sigh....

What has Roy Williams done this year that Greg Olsen couldn't? Seriously. In an era of athletic pass catching TEs, we trade our athletic pass catching TE.

Complex
12-16-2011, 12:15 PM
I skimmed through it but I think Jason Garrett started the 2 TE thing but Belicheck perfected it.

BeerBaron
12-16-2011, 12:17 PM
I skimmed through it but I think Jason Garrett started the 2 TE thing but Belicheck perfected it.

One of them was Martellus Bennett. Your argument is invalid.

jrdrylie
12-16-2011, 12:18 PM
Yeah. I know....sigh....

What has Roy Williams done this year that Greg Olsen couldn't? Seriously. In an era of athletic pass catching TEs, we trade our athletic pass catching TE.

Drop passes? Let us all know every time he gets a first down? Show up to camp out of shape?

Complex
12-16-2011, 12:19 PM
One of them was Martellus Bennett. Your argument is invalid.

I said he started it

DraftSavant
12-16-2011, 12:34 PM
I skimmed through it but I think Jason Garrett started the 2 TE thing but Belicheck perfected it.

It depends on how you define "started" it. The NFL is cyclical. You could say that Joe Gibbs "started" it in response to the Belichick/Lawrence Taylor 3-4, and both of those schemes have evolved since then to where we are now.

Sloopy
12-16-2011, 12:47 PM
I don't know that much about the decision to switch to the 4-3 by the Pats, but from fans I've talked to it was because their D was putrid and they lacked the personnel to run the 3-4 and that they will switch back as early as next year. If this is true I don't know how much genius cred I would give them.

Still the part about letting players go and bringing in low cost talent is true and I do love the big TE sets. It's not just the mismatches it presents as far as the TE's as receivers but one must decide if they are going to send out run or pass personnel, whatever they send out you audible to the opposite and run the hurry up so they cant switch out, it's absolutely genius.

killxswitch
12-16-2011, 12:48 PM
Yeah. 2 TE sets are not new. When Manning was a youngin we had Ken Dilger (the "Rob Gronkowski" type) and Marcus Pollard (the "Aaron Hernandez" type) doing the same things.

Sloopy
12-16-2011, 12:53 PM
Yeah. 2 TE sets are not new. When Manning was a youngin we had Ken Dilger (the "Rob Gronkowski" type) and Marcus Pollard (the "Aaron Hernandez" type) doing the same things.

I know they aren't knew but I like that they are being used again as we get away from the spread looks and with the new, more athletic TE's, using as many as 3 TEs... Loving it

Iamcanadian
12-16-2011, 01:05 PM
I'm not claiming to be a Patriots expert but I have the utmost respect for their philosophy on how to develop a team. These are some theories I have about their organizational structure. I believe no team has ever prepared for the long-term team like the Patriots has done (most recently this past draft and next).

**Pats fans I would love to hear your comments if you agree/disagree with me on any of my claims**

The Patriots team construction philosophy is simply: It's just like a game of football; Let the other team(s) show what they are trying to implement and then construct a 3 year plan to negate all of their strengths (While still winning). There is no DEF/OFF scheme they need to run, they run what will win them games. I know this sounds Cliche but for the Pats it's not.

1. Strategy #1: Over the past 5 years the majority of NFL teams has slowly implemented the 3-4 Defense as their base scheme.

The Patriots saw this trend starting and they changed back to 4-3/ Hybrid. I believe they switched for two reasons:

1. They knew the bubble would burst and rush Lber's would become free agents and teams would grossly overpay which is not how you win.

2. With the rise of 3-4 defenses means an increase in 4-3 defense players who will fall in the draft because of not fitting the other teams schemes. The Pats can capitalize on this by drafting more talented players late and also picking up the "tweeners" the 3-4 cut after a year or two. If everyones reaching for 3-4 rush lber's then why would a team not change to 4-3 and get top talent at the end of the 1st. (I wont even mention them accumulating picks)

2. Strategy #2: Once again taking other teams strengths and neutralizing them. I knew the two TE set would negate a lot of what the 3-4 teams could do with 3-4 rush OLB. But the two TE's MUST each be a completely different type of TE. (one who excels at blocking but with good hands (Dewayne Allen/Brandon Pettigrew type of TE). Gronk is just that TE mold but just a much better receiver.
The next TE (Aaron Hernandez) is needed to spread the field and make a LB or safety guard him.

BOTH are essential in the package to negate 3-4 pass rush.

In Conclusion: If Solder develops and they get some more help along the O-line and sign a solid Big WR target who can stretch the field I think their offense will be more challenging for defenses to game plan for then the Packers, which is saying a lot, because of the ridiculous amount of offensive formations they can run. If their Defense is healthy they can go from worst to Top 15 in one year because the are already so deep at so many offenses positions they can use the majority of their draft on defense.

**I also have several reasons for why drafting two rb's consecutively was also brillant and just another way of building a team. But this was wayy to long already but I'd love a good debate about the RB selections.


Some of what they have done, I really like but I feel like BB has gotten a bit carried away with future picks and trading back, and isn't using the draft enough to find and fill the team needs.

Brady only has a set # of years left when he will be capable of taking a team to a Super Bowl win, I don't think he can waste another 2 or 3 years while BB rebuilds the defense.

BB needs to get more determined in the draft, to fill defensive needs on the team even if it means using extra picks to move up on draft day, he isn't finding impact defensive players by trading back all the time. I simply am getting the feeling, that he has fallen in love with trading back all the time, and it has reached a point, where it is now detrimental to his current team.
Look, as long as Brady is productive, NE's offense will be at or near the top, but they aren't going to win championships without impact players on defense, and IMO, they need to start using the draft to find them quickly, even if it means giving up picks to move up to draft a better quality defensive player.

I agree that BB is brilliant but sometimes geniuses get carried away with an idea and forget the present.

TimmG6376
12-16-2011, 01:10 PM
I skimmed through it but I think Jason Garrett started the 2 TE thing but Belicheck perfected it.

Packers ran a lot of two TE sets in 1996 (Keith Jackson and Chmura). I think the innovation has come in that today's TEs can split out like WRs so the number of formations you can use with double TEs has multiplied.

Razor
12-16-2011, 01:18 PM
I agree that BB is brilliant but sometimes geniuses get carried away with an idea and forget the present.

This is a great point. BB is a genius, and there is no HC I'd rather want for my favorite team. However, he is so determined to build for the future that he overlooks glaring needs right now. And that's really hurting us.

As for the whole 3-4 vs 4-3 thing, BB came out and said that he decided to use the 4-3 this year because the shortened off season left him too little time to install his 3-4.

CashmoneyDrew
12-16-2011, 01:19 PM
the only reason the team is competitive is because of the guy taking snaps. *shrug*

And Gronkerthal.

brat316
12-16-2011, 01:24 PM
But their defense sucks SOOOOOOO much.

MetSox17
12-16-2011, 02:59 PM
One of them was Martellus Bennett. Your argument is invalid.

Before Bennett, we took Anthony Fasano in the second round. We've been running 2-TE offenses for years now, even before Garrett. We just haven't been able to find a Hernandez type #2. Bennett was supposed to be that guy, except he's dumber than a sock.

jth1331
12-16-2011, 03:06 PM
Way too much credit given to the Pats brass.
Switching from a 3-4 more to a 4-3 due to player personal, not because "OMG other teams run a 3-4, lets do a 4-3!"
Like someone said before, 2 TE's have been in use for awhile and the Pats aren't the ones to say "Hey, we can be unbeatable on offense with two good TE's!"
Drafting two RB's back to back is stupid. Look at their secondary, their LB's. WR's too. Depth is crucial, but they had no need to draft 2 RB's.

MetSox17
12-16-2011, 03:08 PM
Yeah, without Tom Brady, all this masterful planning isn't so masterful.

jrdrylie
12-16-2011, 03:13 PM
Way too much credit given to the Pats brass.
Switching from a 3-4 more to a 4-3 due to player personal, not because "OMG other teams run a 3-4, lets do a 4-3!"
Like someone said before, 2 TE's have been in use for awhile and the Pats aren't the ones to say "Hey, we can be unbeatable on offense with two good TE's!"
Drafting two RB's back to back is stupid. Look at their secondary, their LB's. WR's too. Depth is crucial, but they had no need to draft 2 RB's.

The opening post talked about how Ridley and Vereen are more talented than Woodhead and Green-Ellis. If that is the case, why don't they used Ridley and Vereen? Drafting them back-to-back isn't dumb. Drafting them back-to-back and then not even using them is.

ElectricEye
12-16-2011, 03:48 PM
Yeah, without Tom Brady, all this masterful planning isn't so masterful.

Without Tom Brady, none of it works. This team is so totally dependent on him being perfect every single play. Between our ****** defense, small wideouts that leave no margin for error, and lack of a meaningful running game...meh. Yeah, the tight ends are pretty good. Well, Gronk is anyway. Hernandez is really overrated. Or was before this year anyway.

Don't even get me started on the personnel moves on defense. I'm in a decent mood today...prefer to keep it that way.


EDIT:

The bottom line is this; we have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL...yet are not capable of winning a Super Bowl with the current roster. Whenever you are in that situation, you've screwed up pretty good.

nepg
12-16-2011, 04:27 PM
Belichick has always been a TE guy, and has always worked his defense behind an offense with a strong two TE scheme. His first go-round with the Pats, they had Ben Coates (GOAT TE) and Keith Byars.

They really haven't changed what they do on defense. They are running their nickel package as their base defense this year because of the shortened off-season. They had to cut their playbook significantly to get players integrated into the defense that could perform roles that are needed. It allowed them to bring in guys like Haynesworth (:|), Carter, and Anderson...players that really can't fit that well in a 3-4. It's almost 100% certainty that they will go back to an odd-man base front in 2012 because it provides more versatility in looks and scheming.

ShutDwn
12-16-2011, 05:59 PM
How can any of their recent moves deemed masterful when the defense is so bad and they have been one and done in the playoffs?

Who was starting on defense against the Colts?

BeerBaron
12-16-2011, 06:04 PM
Belichick has always been a TE guy, and has always worked his defense behind an offense with a strong two TE scheme. His first go-round with the Pats, they had Ben Coates (GOAT TE) and Keith Byars.


http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20090804000748/wikiality/images/6/6a/NotSureIfSerious.jpg

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/si/2009/writers/don_banks/04/22/snaps/tony-gonzalez.jpg

This is one of those things where there isn't even a question. Tony Gonzalez is the GOAT TE and that's all there is to it.

Nalej
12-16-2011, 06:06 PM
I think he meant NE GOAT TE. Yea, I'm sure that was it.

cmarq83
12-16-2011, 07:00 PM
Yeah this write up really doesn't make all that much sense. The 4-3 defense was installed because of the shortened offseason, so there was no time to install the 3-4 system that BB likes to use which has so many nuances to it. There is a strong indication that they're going to go back to the 3-4 next year although I would prefer if they didn't.

As far as the TE thing goes, I don't think that it was all part of some master plan by BB. The depth chart going into that draft consisted of Alge Crumpler and that is it. TE was essentially a must. The Pats drafted Gronk, but he had a checkered injury history, so likely when the 4th round rolled around and Hernandez was still there the Pats pulled the trigger. BB had a high grade on Hernandez, and the value was good so he went with it. Luckily it has turned out really well for them.

J-Mike88
12-16-2011, 07:20 PM
In the 2005 NFL Draft, the Vikings, staying where they picked, could have come away with both DeMarcus Ware & Aaron Rodgers. They didn't. It's no coincidence they've not made a Super Bowl and they are at rock bottom now. Draft mistakes have long ramifications.

Move to New England.
2006 Draft, Ted Thompson does some 2nd round business with Belichick who wants to trade up in round 2 to select a WR. From Florida. Ooooh, the SEC.

Ted acquires some extra picks to move down in that round.... Belichick selects Chad Jackson.

Later in that round, Thompson selects the WR he had rated highest, from Michigan. Western. Western Michigan. Greg Jennings.

3 Drafts later, the 2 geniuses do draft business again, this time the Packers trading up to the later part of round 2.
Thompson selected Clay Matthews.

Without both of those moves, the Packers surely don't win the Super Bowl last season.
Obviously NE is still super good, but I read thru the Brady vs Brees comparisons and Brady defending Pat fans say their WRs aside from the slot guy Welker are horrible.
And the other thing I've read from Pat fans for a few years is that they are missing a pass rush OLB, which would be Clay Matthews.

Vox Populi
12-17-2011, 12:52 AM
In the 2005 NFL Draft, the Vikings, staying where they picked, could have come away with both DeMarcus Ware & Aaron Rodgers. They didn't. It's no coincidence they've not made a Super Bowl and they are at rock bottom now. Draft mistakes have long ramifications.

Move to New England.
2006 Draft, Ted Thompson does some 2nd round business with Belichick who wants to trade up in round 2 to select a WR. From Florida. Ooooh, the SEC.

Ted acquires some extra picks to move down in that round.... Belichick selects Chad Jackson.

Later in that round, Thompson selects the WR he had rated highest, from Michigan. Western. Western Michigan. Greg Jennings.

3 Drafts later, the 2 geniuses do draft business again, this time the Packers trading up to the later part of round 2.
Thompson selected Clay Matthews.

Without both of those moves, the Packers surely don't win the Super Bowl last season.
Obviously NE is still super good, but I read thru the Brady vs Brees comparisons and Brady defending Pat fans say their WRs aside from the slot guy Welker are horrible.
And the other thing I've read from Pat fans for a few years is that they are missing a pass rush OLB, which would be Clay Matthews.

hEY LOOK, THIS THREAD IS ABOUT THE PACKERS NOW. DID YOU KNOW THEY WON THE SUPER BOWL LAST YEAR AND HAD INJURIES TOO?

descendency
12-17-2011, 01:17 AM
The Patriots are a 3 loss team. What do people expect? I know the defense is statisically (arguably) a bottom 3 defense all time, but they are still only a 3 loss team and likely only going to be a 3 loss team.

Buffalo was clearly Brady's fault.

NY (Giants) won on a dumb penalty that Sergio Brown committed unnecessarily.

The Steelers won because they beat the defense when it mattered most, but the offense sputtered all game.

It's painfully clear that the defense is bad and some of that is due to injury, but I don't think the Patriots are a 16-0 team this year. Or a 15-1. I'm just shocked they are heading for a possible 13-3 record.