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Caulibflower
12-19-2011, 03:51 AM
Every year every draftnik's got a few guys he forms really strong opinions on. There's the mass of players, and then there are the guys you specifically love and hate. More interested in the polarizing players, too - don't care if you were high on Manning when he was coming out. More interested if you thought he was going to suck. I haven't been doing this more than a couple years, so there's not really anyone whose career I can point to and say, "I was right about that guy," but I was a pretty staunch Newton supporter, and was adamant that Gabbert was going to suck. Both of those are looking like good calls.

I honestly thought when the Giants drafted JPP, there was a good chance the guy just wasn't going to see the field, and might be a 6-sack rotational player in a couple years whose high draft status was the answer to a trivia question. But he's balling this year. I don't know what it was, but he was a hard sell for me.

Also couldn't find a good reason to like Ryan Matthews, and posted several times there's no way I'd take him in the first round. I might still stick by that, but now only on the principle that there are plenty of good running backs beyond the first round. Mentioned because he just went over a thousand yards today, so doubtful many SD fans are complaining.

Let's hear 'em. Hits and misses. If you're a GM in Fantasy Land, who got you fired?

TitanHope
12-19-2011, 04:07 AM
I'm still sore over Everette Pedescleaux and Rulon Davis... :(

TACKLE
12-19-2011, 04:58 AM
Just some more notable one's off the top of my head. I'm sure I'm forgetting some of both sides. It's funny, I remember my misses more than I remember my hits.


Hit

- I too was a huge Cam fan. Pretty sure I was the first one here to call him my #1 QB. :D

- Putting Gabbert on here feels like stealing candy from a baby.

- I loved Carl Nicks and thought he was a 1st round talent despite character concerns dropping him to the 5th round. He's turned into one of the best guards in the league and could be probably be a very good tackle as well.

- Despite being the 6th CB off the board, Brandon Flowers was my #1 CB in '08.

- I hated Maybin. He was a one dimensional player who's one dimension wasn't even that good. He was BRUTAL at the combine. Though to be fair, it might be a tad early to write him off just yet.

- Jordyzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

- I didn't like Jimmy Clausen at all despite most on here thinking that he was better than Bradford and worth a top 10 pick.

- One of the only USC players I've been right on, I thought Winston Justice was garbage even though most had him as a Top 15 talent.


Miss

- The undersized pass rushers killed me....I was a huge fan of both Jerry Hughes and Everette Brown.

- I was one of those who fell in love with the college production and measurables of Jarron Gilbert. I couldn't understand why no one drafted him earlier.

- Thought Jimmy Williams (Virginia Tech) would be the steal of the draft. He was a freak with great versatility....he showed up to OTA's at 240 and was out of the league in two years.

- USC Trojans..........I liked most of them (Bush, Jarrett, Leinart, Mays, Maualuga, Sanchez kinda)

- Jamaal Anderson.

Caulibflower
12-19-2011, 05:20 AM
Sam Bradford's kind of an interesting one. I was calling him the next Alex Smith before that draft, but after seeing him play as a rookie it looked like I was a bit off. Now... I know his team's bad, but 6 TDs in 10 games this year? That's pretty pathetic. Also, the Alex Smith comparisons are in light of the fact that I tended to think Smith could be an alright starter, but was drafted a round too high. Might end up ultimately being closer to what I originally thought, but there was a while where I was thinking, "Well, I guess Sam Bradford's a lot better than I expected." ...Maybe not. Haha.

Caulibflower
12-19-2011, 05:27 AM
Didn't like Matt Ryan very much. (Still not a big fan, but the Falcons are obviously a legit team with him.)

Thought CJ Spiller had a lot of bust potential, and needed to go to a team that wouldn't need to rely on him. (Like not Buffalo, although he's had a couple good games lately. Rookie season was really underwhelming though. Less than even I expected.)

Oh, I know. I thought Matthew Stafford was really overrated. That one makes me look pretty dumb.

GaMeTiMe
12-19-2011, 09:34 AM
One player that always comes to my mind is Eric Weddle. I understand he was a high second round pick, but I was REALLY high on him coming out. He's out-performed his draft slot but I still expected him to be a top-15 player from that class and he's arguably been better. And this is in a class with Megatron, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis and Revis.

I was dying for the Eagles to make that pick, then they traded back and took Kolb, and San Diego traded like 5 picks to move to the next pick and pick Weddle.

Halsey
12-19-2011, 09:51 AM
Hits:
I knew Stafford would be a #1 overall pick a long time before the 2009 Draft: http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/3376905-people-matthew-stafford-is-going-to-be-the-%231-overall-pick-in-2009-or-2010/

I thought Chris Johnson was underrated: http://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/3230619-if-chris-johnson-played-at-a-big-time-school-with-lineman-opening-up-big-holes-in-front-of-him/

I didn't buy Michael Crabtree as being quite as good as many were making him out to be.

I thought the anti-Jason Pierre Paul bandwagon got out of hand.

Misses:
Brady Quinn

Looks like I was probably wrong about Gabbert, but I'm not ready to give up yet. I still think he has a chance to improve. He's one of the youngest starting QBs ever.

Jamaal Anderson

SilentJaguar
12-19-2011, 10:21 AM
Hits:

Mike Wallace- I thought he was something special when coming out of Ole Miss and I was hoping the Jags would grab him in the 3rd, but we ended up getting Knighton and Derek Cox instead while Wallace went a few picks later. Not bad, mind you, but I still think we could've nabbed Derek later on, personally.

Blaine Gabbert- I was pretty adamant on the Jags' forum that I didn't want Blaine because of a lot of things I saw from him in college that are showing up now. Was really, REALLY hoping we'd get Locker instead.

Terrell Suggs- I had watched a LOT of ASU that year and felt he was gonna be great in the league(and even thought he was who we were gonna draft when Minnesota missed their pick and we hurried up and took Bustwich).

LeSean McCoy- I was shocked when he dropped all the way down to middle of the second as I had him as my #2 back in the class behind Moreno.

Misses:

Jamaal Anderson- Thought he was going to be the next dominant pass-rusher from the SEC. Oops...

Colt McCoy- Kinda iffy on this one, but since he's their full-time starter with no signs of going away anytime soon, I'll label it as a "miss".

Derrick Harvey- Yup.

Quentin Groves- Double Yup.

DiG
12-19-2011, 10:31 AM
heres what i posted was my ideal draft back in 2008 when we ended up taking devin thomas, fred davis, and malcolm kelly...

First selection
Antoine Cason

Second Selection - 51st
Jordy Nelson

Third Selection (late second/early third through trade)
Tracy Porter

Fourth Selection (pick 84) -
Carl Knicks

Fifth Selection (Comp pick 96) -
John Greco

DraftSavant
12-19-2011, 11:20 AM
Hits
- Pretty much every USC player ever except Tyron Smith. I liked Smith's upside, but didn't think he had enough natural strength to be effective his rookie year. But the Bush/Leinart era Trojans are all my draft bitches, forever.
- Denarius ******* Moore. My man.
- Blaine. I'll say no more.
- Knowshon Moreno (Thought he was hot garbage. Such a frenetic, choppy runner who wastes a ton of movement and has neither speed nor power. )
- I L.O.V.E.D. Jonathan Joseph coming out
- Rolando McClain being completely overvalued/overdrafted.
- One of the few who really, really liked JPP. You just don't see a first step combined with that type of hip flexibility on a long-armed freak like that very often.
- Percy Harvin, especially to everyone who said he'd bust because he's a "UF wide receiver lolz"

Misses
- Jamarcus AND Quinn (the entire 2007 draft, really) :shudders:
- Julio's speed and explosiveness
- I thought Ernie Sims was going to be a Bau5 and a Pro Bowl mainstay at WLB.
- Earl Thomas being too small
- Andy Dalton's arm being too weak to start in the NFL
- Vernon Gholston
- Jamal Anderson - seems like a lot of people in this thread missed on this asshole.
- Carlos Dunlap. Still surprised by his NFL success, but kudos to him. Much better NFL player than college player. I always thought Cunningham would end up the better pro.

SimonRath
12-19-2011, 11:36 AM
dont mean to toot my own horn, but im pretty sure i was the biggest fan out of anyone when it came to Marques Colston. I even e-mailed the Falcons like 20 times telling them to draft him!

BuddyCHRIST
12-19-2011, 11:45 AM
I hated Matt Ryan and loved Brady Quinn so I missed on both of those. But I was a big time Matt Stafford supporter and still think he's the highest rated QB ive graded. Hated Gabbert but thats too easy.

I also loved Jimmy Williams and couldn't see why he wasn't a first round pick. Hated Maybin, but Everette Brown was my boy and he hasn't been much better.

I thought Malcom Jenkins would be able to stay at corner, though he's played pretty well at safety. I knew Harvin would be a stud if healthy and he's pretty much been that when healthy and with competent QB play.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-19-2011, 12:47 PM
A few of the more "big names" in recent years off the top of my head...


Hits: JPP, Brady Quinn/Jimmy Claussen, Orakpo, Felix Jones, LaRon Landry (debated Landry>Nelson far too many times for this to not stick out)

Miss: Crabtree, McCluster, Brandon Graham, Sergio Kindle

TACKLE
12-19-2011, 12:54 PM
- Carlos Dunlap. Still surprised by his NFL success, but kudos to him. Much better NFL player than college player. I always thought Cunningham would end up the better pro.

Same here. I thought he was incredibly overrated.

AntoinCD
12-19-2011, 01:01 PM
I correctly called that Von Miller was the second coming of Tully Banta-Ca...never mind.

I was also another one all aboard the Notre Dame QB band wagons

Complex
12-19-2011, 02:10 PM
Hit: JPP, I said he would be the 2nd best defensive player behind Suh.
Carlos Dunlap
Cam Newton and Jake Locker.I know I put him down a lot during the Cam vs Locker threads but I really liked him since he was freshman maybe sophmore but I think it was his freshman year.
Landry
Percy Harvin
Sidney Rice
Terrell Suggs
Jimmy Clausen, I was so right about him.
Ed Reed
Gabbert


Miss
Charles Rogers
Malcom Kelly
Jimmy Williams
Venon Gholston
Everrett Brown
Every good USC Skill player and Winston Justice except Kerry Colbert.
Shady McCoy

jrdrylie
12-19-2011, 02:27 PM
I'll go by class.

2005: I said Alex Smith would be a big bust (that's neither a hit nor a miss because really he's been incredibly average). I said Aaron Rodgers would have a Drew Bledsoe type career. I wasn't comparing them as prospects. I just expected him to have a long, above average career.

2006: I was really high on Matt Leinart. I thought he would be amazing. I loved it when the Jaguars picked Maurice Jones-Drew. I was shocked about the fact that it took him three years to fully take over from Fred Taylor.

2007: I loved Brady Quinn. I was writing a bit for my college newspaper at the time and I said at the time that passing on Brady Quinn would be the Jaguars ticket to Los Angeles. Boy was I wrong. But I did think Jamarcus Russell would be a bust and Eric Weddle would be good. I also thought Antonio Pittman was going to be one of those guys who was pretty good in college and then explodes in the NFL.

2008: I was not happy about the Chicago pick of Matt Forte. I really wanted Jamaal Charles. That's more like a half miss. I also loved Brandon Albert. I thought he was a perennial pro bowler. Instead, he's average. I did really like Cliff Avril as a prospect, so I wasn't completely wrong that year.

2009: I thought Percy Harvin, Clay Matthews, and Brian Cushing would all bust. Three strikes. I'm out. As far as hits? Graham Gano???

2010: I thought Sam Bradford would suck and Jimmy Clausen would be an above average starter. Jury is still out on the former. The latter I was way wrong. I also thought Jonathan Dwyer would be the steal of the draft.

2011: Probably too early to tell. But I was really low on Newton, like Julio Jones more than A.J. Green, thought Derrick Sherrod was the top offensive tackles, thought Pouncey would be half the player his brother was, and really liked Akeem Ayers, Ryan Kerrigan, and Rahim Moore.

Miaoww
12-19-2011, 02:29 PM
Love how everyone is writing off Clausen and Gabbert after one season whilst lauding Andy "Throw it to A.J. Green" Dalton.

jrdrylie
12-19-2011, 02:32 PM
Love how everyone is writing off Clausen and Gabbert after one season whilst lauding Andy "Throw it to A.J. Green" Dalton.

I haven't written off Gabbert yet. If he gets a quality QB coach this off season, then maybe he could progress. But Clausen is done for. I don't know if he'll ever start another game in the NFL outside of a team losing their top two quarterbacks and getting desperate.

As for Dalton, I did not think he would make it as a pro. I thought he was a slightly less athletic clone of Colt McCoy. In fact, I still think next year he could have a sophomore slump like McCoy has had this season but it will be harder for him to do that because he does have AJ Green.

ElectricEye
12-19-2011, 02:34 PM
Hits;
-Jamarcus Russell. I remember being one of the first people hyping him up around here...as a second or third round pick. I thought there was a very high bust factor there and yeah, I guess I was on that.

-Clay Matthews. Far, far, far and away my biggest hit and the thing I'm most proud of. I was on him way earlier than a lot of people. It didn't shock me at all that he blew up the combine and had a great showing at the Senior Bowl and I was begging fort he Patriots to draft him.

-Blaine Gabbert. I liked the guy his Sophomore year, but when it came down to it I just didn't see a first round caliber player...or even a third round one.

-Rob Gronkowski. I'm shocked he's THIS productive, but it doesn't surprise me at all that he's one of the better receiving tight ends in the league. A lot of people didn't seem to see him as that type of guy.

Misses:

-Brady Quinn. I was so hard for Brady Quinn it's not even funny. Probably was my favorite quarterback prospect in the past 5 years or so, thought he would be a top five at his position kind of guy.

-Alex Smith. He's turned himself into a serviceable, good quarterback...but I had the entire Aaron Rodgers thing backward. Loved his combination of mobility and accuracy.

-Ditto to Tackle on undersized pass rushers. Hughes and Everette Brown were two of my favorites(Quinton Groves was in the team picture). I guess sometimes you get the Claymaker or Woodley...sometimes you get those guys.

BaLLiN
12-19-2011, 02:47 PM
Hits:

2006
Bobby Carpenter- Didn't like him, was very happy that the Cowboys drafted him because I felt he wasn't worth a first.

Antonio Cromartie- I loved his size, speed, and potential. He has performed well, but is inconsistent

Santonio Holmes- man oh man was he good in college. I thought he'd be very very good in the slot, but he outperformed my expectations.

DeAngelo Williams- loved him, he had soo much production on a terrible team. He showed great vision and agility despite not having great speed.

Greg Jennings- he was a lot of people's sleeper pick, i joined the bandwagon and reaped some benefits.

Jason Avant- I liked him almost as much as mario in their michigan days, but he wasn't as explosive. He is very reliable however.

Mathias Kiwanuka- tall, massive, quick, I wasnt happy about the pick because we had strahan and osi, but it turned out well.

2007

JaMarcus Russell- bust, I didn't like that he seemed to just chuck balls and how he rose so much during the process. I thought he could be an ok starter, but his head wasnt in it.

Jon Beason- absolute beast. my favorite player from this draft, I wanted the giants to pick him, but Aaron Ross's flash made me feel ok. Beason was a tackling machiene and intense on a good miami defense.

Joe Staley- Mel Kiper wanted us to draft him, but I didnt particularly like him as a prospect. He is average imo.

David Harris- knew the jets got a good one when they traded up for him, he was a very good leader and tackling machiene just like beason.

Tony Hunt- despite being senior bowl mvp, i didnt see anything special about him. He hasnt done much in the league, idk if he is even still in it.

Tanard Jackson- loved his range, I definitely think he could be a top 10 safety, but he needs to improve vs the run. Excellent at reading the ball in the air.

Ahmad Bradshaw- im sure many people liked him, he had a lot of production, swagger, toughness, and swagger at marshall.

2008

Glenn Dorsey- very sudden and strong, wasnt drafted into a good position, but this transition shows how good he is.

Jonathan Stewart- he should be starting somewhere in the league, strong fast, breaks a lot of tackles and is a good enough receiver.

Brandon Flowers- Favorite player of this draft, watched his highlights like daily. He was strong, made plays, and although he didn't run well and had some "character issues" I wanted him on my team whether it was safety or corner.

Curtis Lofton- made SOO many tackles at OU, closing speed, good MLB.

Tracy Porter- quick, playmaking, good man to man skills. Him and Flowers were great to watch.

Ray Rice- Scotty really made me love Rice, well so did Rice but I did think speed was a problem. He was tough and extended plays when you thought there was nothing. He and Leonard and Foster were the main reasons for Rutgers becoming a legit football team.

Pat Sims- just like Dorsey, he was very sudden and powerful

Eric Foster- He played DE, LB, and DT for rutgers so I didn't know where he would be but with his spirit I knew he'd land somewhere and make an impact.

Davone Bess- insane body control, good hands, good routes, and quick. Many things can make a good receiver and those attributes are hard to match up against.

2009

Mark Sanchez- i knew he sucked

Hakeem Nicks- makes great catches, a lot like bowe

Kenny Britt- not good at routes, but great physical specimen

Patrick Chung- playmaker, rover at oregon, most giants wanted him

DJ Moore- speeedz, he's done pretty well for the bears

LeSean McCoy- I called two things. One was that the eagles would be the ones drafting him in the second, and that he would be a lot like westbrook and fit their system well. So sad that I was right.

Donald Brown- mostly because he killed rutgers every year, quick and explosive.




Misses:

2006
Michael Huff- thought he was one of the best safety prospects ever, but he is nowhere near as good as he should be with those man to man skills, instincts, and physicality.

Jay Cutler- loved the arm and mobility, he makes stupid stupid decisions.

Lawrence Maroney- he was a tough mauler with good enough speed, his rookie season looked promising but he fizzled out fast.

Sinorice Moss- do i need to explain?

2007
LaRon Landry- same as Huff, he has picked it up as of late.

Brandon Merriweather- thought he'd be a CB early in his career and move to safety, but he played well early. Takes too many chances, and always goes for the big hit.

Dwayne Jarrett- Many people thought he was amazing, he looked polished, he ran poorly but he had hands (we thought) and was tall with ability to get separation. What happened?

Paul Pozlusny- giants fans grew annoyed at how he was being mocked to us, we didn't want a slow and injured LB. I would still not take him because he isn't great in coverage, but he is very good vs the run.

2008

Chris Long- didnt like him, thought he was slow and not finesse enough. I eat crow.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie- he could still revert to his playmaking form, but he takes alot of chances and bites big.

Eddie Royal- he showed he could be a good receiver and playmaker, but he is very inconsistent, I thought he'd be like holmes.

Terrell Thomas- didnt like him, thought he wasn't fast enough and didnt make plays. CROW

Reggie Smith- probably my most loved player ever as a prospect, what happened? I thought he would start this year.

Steve Slaton- was good originally, fumbled too much.

The other Hawaii receiver (forget his name)- never happened, didn't like him that much but i was wrong.

2009-

Crabtree- overrated, not nearly as good as I thought he'd be

Clay Matthews- I didn't think much of him, man was I wrong.

Vontae Davis- thought he was a shutdown corner, he isn't performing that well

James Laurinitis- I forget what I said exactly, but I never thought he'd be this good or even a good starter.

Clint Sintim- bust, he could've been good had he been used right or in the right defensive scheme.

Alphonso Smith- he made so many plays and limited Calvin Johnson, but he gives up so much, he's definitely a bust.

Ramses Barden- still up in the air

DeepThreat
12-19-2011, 04:11 PM
Hits

Jimmy Graham - Thought he was a first-round pick.

Jason Pierre-Paul - Had him in the top ten.

Jimmy Clausen - Wouldn't have even taken him in the second.

JaMarcus Russell - Said this would happen.

Aaron Curry - Saw him as an average to above-average player.

Jason Smith - Didn't think he was worth a pick until the second half of the first.

B.J. Raji - Thought he was the next Vince Wilfork.

Connor Barwin - Would have taken him in the mid-first.

Misses

Cam Newton - Thought he would suck.

Everette Brown - Saw him as almost on Orakpo's level.

Phil Loadholt - Figured he was, at worst, a great right tackle.

Von Miller - I liked, but didn't love him. Had him ranked 6th.

Andy Dalton - 4th round value in my mind.

Adam Carriker - Thought he was going to be a stud.

Paul
12-19-2011, 04:21 PM
Hits

I really really wanted Dallas to pick Patrick Willis if he fell. I thought he was going to be good, but not this good.
I wanted Chris Johnson over Felix sooooo bad in that draft.
No Lie, I was a big Matt Forte fan when he came out.

Misses

Thought Antoine Cason was going to be a Stud
Tank Tyler. oops
Still Early, but Bryan Bulaga hasn't really impressed me from what I've seen

Phins827
12-19-2011, 04:28 PM
Vontae Davis- thought he was a shutdown corner, he isn't performing that well

huh? He gives up an occasional play, but overall, he is pretty darn good

On topic, my biggest miss was certainly Vernon Gholston. As an Ohio State fan, I watched him tear it up on the college field. I actually wanted Miami to take him #1 overall that year, instead of Jake Long. Luckily, Miami didn't pay attention to me.

DraftSavant
12-19-2011, 04:39 PM
Hits

Jimmy Graham - Thought he was a first-round pick.

Jason Pierre-Paul - Had him in the top ten.

Jimmy Clausen - Wouldn't have even taken him in the second.

JaMarcus Russell - Said this would happen.

Aaron Curry - Saw him as an average to above-average player.

Jason Smith - Didn't think he was worth a pick until the second half of the first.

B.J. Raji - Thought he was the next Vince Wilfork.

Connor Barwin - Would have taken him in the mid-first.

Misses

Cam Newton - Thought he would suck.

Everette Brown - Saw him as almost on Orakpo's level.

Phil Loadholt - Figured he was, at worst, a great right tackle.

Von Miller - I liked, but didn't love him. Had him ranked 6th.

Andy Dalton - 4th round value in my mind.

Adam Carriker - Thought he was going to be a stud.

Right there with you on Raji and Loadholdt (bleh). And I still don't understand how Jason Smith leapfrogged to the top tackle slot in that draft.

Brent
12-19-2011, 05:00 PM
I remember the Niners fans of this board were all on the Willis bandwagon.

Can I take credit on Von Miller? I feel like my A&M bias negates that.

Oh, and I remember preparing myself for the Niners to take Maybin, which I was so against. Luckily that didn't happen.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-19-2011, 05:19 PM
I'd also add myself to the Jimmy Williams list. I remember a picture of him was the first avy I had here. I was so excited when we traded up for him.

DraftSavant
12-19-2011, 05:30 PM
<---Also was a major Cutler fanboy.

I loved Deangelo Williams, too. He was a beast from 08-09, but I think he's more in the miss category.

Also, Reggie Nelson...**** that guy.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-19-2011, 05:38 PM
Also, Reggie Nelson...**** that guy.



I can't even begin to imagine how many people I debated that Landry was vastly superior to Nelson.

Caulibflower
12-19-2011, 05:54 PM
Hits
- One of the few who really, really liked JPP. You just don't see a first step combined with that type of hip flexibility on a long-armed freak like that very often.


I think the thing with JPP was that while his athleticism was super obvious, it seemed like people were overestimating how effectively it would translate to the NFL. As a tackler, I saw him as more of a long, grabbing-type and not much of a hitter; in college he just had that huuuuge wingspan and would just reach over and around people and drag runners and QBs down. I thought once NFL tackles were between him and where he wanted to be, he'd be grabbing a lot more air. Not the case, evidently.

I'll go by class.

... I also thought Antonio Pittman was going to be one of those guys who was pretty good in college and then explodes in the NFL.



Forgot about Pittman! I really liked him, too. Not as a first rounder, but while maybe not a "star" running back, thought he would certainly be in the mix for a starting position and contribute. Good production at OSU, good blend of speed and power. One of those guys where everything looks good - his measurables, his highlight tape - but then he goes lower than you thought and doesn't even live up to that. Thought he had what it took. Maybe he just wasn't that into it.



Hakeem Nicks- makes great catches, a lot like bowe


Nicks was one of my favorite WR prospects I can remember, but I don't remember there being much controversy about him so I didn't mention him. I think what really sold me was watching him against... West Virginia? I think it was a bowl game. If I remember correctly. Just made crazy catches, and when the ball was in his hands looked like he could do whatever he wanted.

EDIT: (for video)

v2ikDsi-DJA

cmarq83
12-19-2011, 06:05 PM
In the past few years these were the ones I could come up with.

Hits:

Jamaal Charles- probably was my favorite back that year.

Connor Barwin- Wanted him on the Pats sooo bad.

Rob Gronkowski- Dream came true

Brandon Flowers- Loved his physicality, turned out to be a boss

Desean Jackson- Knew he would be a big play threat in the NFL, for a lot of people that was in doubt.

Von Miller- I would have been ok if the Pats traded every pick for him before the draft.

Misses:
Eric Norwood/Jason Worilids - Both were my undersized pass rusher crushes last year, both have done next to nothing in the NFL

Vernon Gholston- Epic Bust

Michael Crabtree- Thought 100 catch 10 TD seasons were going to be on the regular.

Brandon Tate- Though he would emerge as an explosive receiver

Aaron Curry- I thought he would be one of the best linebackers in the NFL

Taylor Mays- Blinded by Size/Speed combo, forgot the part that he couldn't play football.

Clay Mattews III- I thought he was going to bust big time

ElectricEye
12-19-2011, 06:09 PM
Count me in on Jamaal Charles and Taylor Mays as a hit and a miss respectively. I was confounded how Charles got drafted as low as he did. Charles ran for 1600 yards his last year and ran 4.3. There were some concerns about size, but I thought it was pretty easy to see he was going to be a major playmaker in the NFL.

katnip
12-19-2011, 06:50 PM
Hits = Adrian Peterson, D'Brick Ferguson, Santonio Holmes, Calvin Johnson, Andy Dalton, Jay Cutler?, Matt Ryan, LaMarr Woodley, David Harris, Patrick Willis.....

Misses = Marshawn Lynch (thought he'd make a few pro bowls), Sinorice Moss (mostly a homer thing to my favorite cfb team), Jerry Hughes,

All I can think of without looking at each team's rosters.. Also how many here, would say the jury's still out for Cutler

Caulibflower
12-19-2011, 07:23 PM
Misses = Marshawn Lynch (thought he'd make a few pro bowls),


I wouldn't necessarily call that a miss. He's one of the tougher runners to bring down in the NFL, and having a Pro-Bowl caliber season this year. (Full disclosure: Seahawks fan). For a 12th overall pick... You'd like to see a little more, but I think he's about what people expected. He's been on some bad teams, too.

Caulibflower
12-19-2011, 07:26 PM
I loved Deangelo Williams, too. He was a beast from 08-09, but I think he's more in the miss category.


I don't think he's in the miss category, I just think any running back is going to have a hard time having huge production sharing a backfield with Jonathan Stewart, and now with Cam Newton. He's always had a high yards-per-carry, so the only real knock on him is that he hasn't had huge season totals, except for that period where Carolina gave it to him a lot. He's not a miss, he's just got to share his opportunities with some other really talented players.

rawdawg
12-19-2011, 08:42 PM
Interesting thread. I do a lot of my draft prospect work throwing stuff back and forth with a friend of mine (doesn't post here). He likes to throw the "I called it" in my face. He oddly was in love with TJ Yates. Thought he was the 3rd best QB prospect behind Newton and Dalton.

My HITS:
- QB Matt Ryan- I had several arguments with people thinking he was elevated due to his draft classmates at QB, including 1 with a Rams fan who was ecstatic they didn't take him
- OT Ryan Clady, was hoping he'd fall to the Bears at 14 that year
- WR Ted Ginn, literally LOL'd when the Dolphins picked him top 10
- CB Darrelle Revis, thought he was the best defensive player in the 07 draft. Didn't think this good though.
- DE Cliff Avril, Purdue is quietly a DE factory (played DE in college) with Rosey Colvin, Akin Ayodele Shaun Phillips, Ray Edwards, and Anthony Spencer before him and Ryan Kerrigan since.

My MISSES:
- WR Juaquin Iglesias, thought my Bears had a steal late in the 3rd round
- WR James Hardy, as a fellow Hoosier, I thought he'd have a big NFL career
- DT Alan Branch, thought he was going to be a monster of a DT
- LB Lamarr Woodley, LOL'd because a team was trying to make him a 3-4 OLB...oops
- WR Early Doucet, thought he was going to take over for Boldin as a 100 catch WR alongside Fitz

There's plenty others in both areas (mostly miss) and the jury is out on most guys as I've only really gotten into this stuff the last 4-5 years.

Goon61
12-19-2011, 09:47 PM
Hits:

Greg Jennings:
Before I began religiously visiting this site I typed into google the best wr in college football and Jenning's name came up. I watched his highlights and fell in love with him even after Scott said not to believe in his press clippings. It was hilariously ironic.

Kyle Williams: (DT) Watched him in the senior bowl and saw his high motor play, so I decided he was underrated

Misses:

Cam Newton: Watched the National Championship game and saw him overthrow so many WRs. I guess it was the WRs fault afterall

Adrian Peterson: I thought he was overrated because his athletic ability and the grest team he played on. I thought his injuries would keep him off the field almost indefinitely, and where was he in the Boise St game.

Adam Carricker: I wanted the niners to draft him ahead of Willis, in hindsight I don't know what was wrong with me

JeffSamardzijaIRISH
12-19-2011, 09:59 PM
Hits

Clay Matthews - thought he was a top 10 talent.
Desean Jackson - my #1 receiver that year and top 15 talent.
Jay Cutler - had him as my #1 QB that year.
Chris Long - thought he would be a dominant DE for years to come.
Newton - had him as a top 10 QB in a couple of years.
Lawrence Timmons - my #2 linebacker that year only because of Willis, had him as a perennial pro bowler.

Misses

Brady Quinn - thought he was the best QB prospect in a couple of years.
Jimmy Clausen - thought that he would be a top 10 QB in 3-4 years.
Taylor Mays - thought he would be a very good safety with that athleticism.
Reggie Nelson - my #1 safety prospect of all time. Oops.
Gaines Adams - thought he would be the next beast DE (didn't pan out even before his death, RIP)
Vince Young - thought he would revolutionize the QB position.
Jamaal Anderson - thought that he would be a consistent 8+ sack per year guy.

DoughBoy
12-19-2011, 10:13 PM
I don't remember many of my hits very well... Karl Klug and Taylor Mays are the only ones that really come to mind.

as for the misses-

Jamarcus Russell
Chris Johnson
Devin Thomas
Malcom Kelly
Troy Williamson
Michael Crabtree (maybe not a total miss, but I thought he was going to be a G.O.A.T.)
Jerry Hughes
Jamaal Anderson
Adam Carriker
Alphonso Smith

TACKLE
12-19-2011, 10:40 PM
Now seems like the appropriate time....

I've eaten crow for this earlier but Aldon Smith has proven me wrong big time. He was a boom-or-bust prospect and I put my chips on bust. I think coming back from the broken leg effected him a lot last year and in hindsight, I should of judged more off his RS freshman film when he was healthy.

BaLLiN
12-19-2011, 10:42 PM
Hits

Jay Cutler - had him as my #1 QB that year.



Put Culter on my misses bc i thought he would be very good but he's very stupid with decisions, he's in between.

Buc Baller12
12-19-2011, 10:57 PM
Hits:

back in 04 i said Rivers would be the best QB; even with the down year he is still the best natural passer

2010 i saw jj arrington in cj spiller

I agreed with Ron Jaworski that cutler would be the better pro qb than leinart and young

misses:

vernon gholston. wtf happened?

Brian Brohom

Crabtree thought he had the chance to be an elite

Moreno; what mccoy is doing with the eagles thats what i expected from moreno

Caulibflower
12-19-2011, 11:16 PM
S'pose while he's tearing it up tonight, I might as well mention Aldon Smith was my favorite defensive end prospect last year. ;-) Well, he and Cameron Jordan. Different types of players. Aldon Smith was my favorite pass rusher. Seem to remember some people really thought he was a product of the hype machine.

Cigaro
12-19-2011, 11:53 PM
I'll have to continue thinking about this for a full answer, but I get happy when I see Gronkowski dominating, as I was a huge fan of this kid. A lot of people had him rated in the second round which is decent, but I was one of the few who thought he would develop into a great tight end, not just say a very good one.

Oh yeah, I'm complete **** at rating quarterbacks. I was right on Ryan and Stafford, and the same depending on your opinion of Sanchez and Bradford, but wrong about basically everyone else, including Russell, Newton, Flacco, Quinn, Clausen, etc. I actually put no stock into my own ratings of quarterbacks anymore as a result.

deepthoughtlife
12-20-2011, 02:42 AM
Hits (as much more successful than where drafted):
Michael Turner (5th): Great power back with good speed
Darren Sproles (5th): Small body, but played bigger. Very skilled.
Davone Bess (UDFA): Born to catch the ball. Slow and small, whatever.
Peyton Hillis (7th): Not much worse than Jones and Mcfadden, and could play FB too.

Hits (as busts)
Jamarcus Russel: I thought he had plenty of physical talent, but a ten cent head.
Troy Williamson: Catching the ball is an important part of being a receiver.
Jimmy Clausen: Just never impresssed.
JP Losman

Misses (Much better than I thought)
Aaron Rodgers: I thought he wasn't that talented.
Matt Ryan: I didn't like his accuracy, and thought he was pedestrian overall.
Ben Roethlisberger: Ditto on the accuracy. Now, he is an impressive playmaker, though his accuracy is slightly spotty.

Misses (Much worse than I thought)
JJ Arrington: I really though he would be good, and now he doesn't exist.
Aaron Curry
Reggie Bush: He's having a good year for the Dolphins, but I saw a Hall of Fame player. I thought he could run inside too.

Other:
Cadillac Williams: He seemed like he would be great at first, didn't he? I liked him far better than Ronnie Brown. No way to anticipate the severity with which he would be injured.

Phillip Rivers: When everyone thought he was a third rounder, I thought he was the best QB in that draft. I was right, but he made a steep climb in the rankings leading up to the draft.

Patrick Willis: I somehow didn't know he existed until my niners drafted him.

Alex Smith: A couple years ago, he would have been the prime exhibit in my misses category. With his immense improvement this year, and extending a bit to the two before, I don't know anymore. (Note: He is only 27).

Tim Tebow: I don't think he is very good at throwing the ball, but he has been quite successful winning this year. I suspect he will not keep it up, but I can't be sure. I thought he would be pretty decent at throwing, and was worth the pick due to his running and intangibles. (Another Urban Meyer QB).

rawdawg
12-20-2011, 06:26 AM
Put Culter on my misses bc i thought he would be very good but he's very stupid with decisions, he's in between.

What year are you in? This isn't 2009 anymore. Granted, I'm probably a little biased, being a Bears fan, but you are talking about a guy who is 18-8 the last 2 seasons with a team that has made it clear they are the worst supporting cast in the league the last 4 weeks without him. He has a 4500 yard season under his belt. Jay Cutler is a very good NFL QB.

KLima878
12-20-2011, 09:32 AM
Also, Reggie Nelson...**** that guy.

As a Jags fan I couldn't agree more

phlysac
12-20-2011, 09:55 AM
My biggest miss...

I considered Dre Moore in a 1st round mock.

http://graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/md/sports/m-footbl/auto_action/1473286.jpeg



I thought he'd be great as a 5-tech.

DraftSavant
12-20-2011, 10:43 AM
Now seems like the appropriate time....

I've eaten crow for this earlier but Aldon Smith has proven me wrong big time. He was a boom-or-bust prospect and I put my chips on bust. I think coming back from the broken leg effected him a lot last year and in hindsight, I should of judged more off his RS freshman film when he was healthy.

Right there with you on that one, bro. That injury really affected his hip flexibility and explosiveness last year. He looked really stiff on tape.

soybean
12-20-2011, 01:06 PM
Hits: Brandon Mebane, Desmond Bishop

Miss: dwayne jarrett, taylor mays, and a lot more

Paul
12-20-2011, 01:11 PM
Put Culter on my misses bc i thought he would be very good but he's very stupid with decisions, he's in between.

Yeah. I don't get this.

RaiderNation
12-20-2011, 01:12 PM
Last years draft

Hit: Cam Newton
I was a big Newton fan all last season and was one of the few posters that was saying he was worth a #1 pick. Newton has displayed the raw talent he has and now with the NFL coaching, he is just starting to become the "supastar" he is able to be.

Miss: Aldon Smith
I thought Smith was one of the reaches of the 1st round, but looking back I clearly missed here. Smith has translated to the 3-4 OLB position with ease already have has double digit sack #'s already.

D-Unit
12-20-2011, 02:05 PM
off the top of my head...

misses (thought they were gonna be good): colt brennan, reggie bush (according to my expectations), taylor mays, matt leinart, chad jackson, brady quinn, ahmad brooks, kai parham, tashard choice, shonn greene

misses (thought they were gonna be bad): matt stafford, clay matthews (not that i thought he was gonna be bad, just not this good)

I'm sure there are a ton more, but i gotta go take a dump.

phlysac
12-20-2011, 04:46 PM
off the top of my head...

misses (thought they were gonna be good): ahmad brooks

Pat yourself on the back a little. He's started every game for the NFL's #1 defense.

ChiFan24
12-20-2011, 06:53 PM
I get a lot better at scouting every year go by, so I don't really count my opinions before 2007 or so (16 y/o).

2003: Didn't like Carson Palmer; though Byron Leftwich was easily the best prospect. Liked Rex Grossman and Jimmy Kennedy. Loved Brandon Lloyd, couldn't understand why he fell so far. Loved Andre Johnson. Thought McGahee was worth a first round pick. Like Eugene Wilson and Andre Woolfolk (I consider Wilson a hit)

2004: Hated Robert Gallery as an OT, Michael Clayton and Kenechi Udeze. Liked all three QB's; ranked them Roethlisberger, Manning, Rivers (which is probably the correct ranking to this day, certainly in terms of SB's). LOVED Vince Wilfork. I liked Kevin Jones and Greg Jones as a HB. Thought Will Poole and Joey Thomas would be starting CB's in the league. Wasn't crazy about Tommie Harris.

2005: Considered BMW the best prospect in the draft. Thought Troy Williamson was terrible. Hated Alex Smith, but at this point, he's better than I expected he would be. Thought Kyle Orton was the top QB in the draft and worth a top 10 pick, with Aaron Rodgers only worth a 10-20 pick. Thought Cadillac Williams was the best RB in the draft. Hated Cedric Benson (Not sure if that's a hit or a miss). Liked Shawne Merriman, but didn't really understand the DeMarcus Ware love. Hated Pacman Jones, in part because he was a scumbag (though, he was a much better CB than I thought). Thought Antrel Rolle was a safety. Thought Derrick Johnson was worth a top 5 pick. Thought Justin Miller was worth a first rounder as a CB/KR prospect. LOVED Ernest Shazor. Liked Jammal Brown. Hated David Pollack and Erasmus James.

2006: Loved Bush and Leinart and ranked them #1 and #3, with Mario Williams in between. Liked Vince Young more than Cutler, but I liked both. Hated Tye Hill, Kelly Jennings and Jason Allen. Didn't understand why A.J. Hawk and Vernon Davis were taken so high, but I loved Michael Huff. Big DeAngelo Williams fan. Liked Brandon Marshall as a second round prospect. Though Max Jean-Gilles was a steal.

2007: Thought JaMarcus Russell was over-drafted though I thought he could be okay in a good situation. Thought Brady Quinn was easily the top overall QB, with Trent Edwards and Russell fighting for second. Top 5 prospects were: Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Quinn, Darrelle Revis and Amobi Okoye, in that order. Didn't see Jamaal Anderson as a good enough pass rusher to warrant a high pick. Thought Marshawn Lynch was a second round back (I stand by that, though he's awesome when in beast mode). Loved Reggie Nelson, gave him a top 10 grade. Loved Robert Meachem and Greg Olsen. Thought Lamarr Woodley was a stud.

2008: Going by memory, top 5 prospects were: Darren McFadden, Chris Long, Ryan Clady, Jake Long, Sedrick Ellis. So, pretty good. I also liked pretty much every skill position player that turned into a good player. Thought Terrell Thomas was awesome. I disliked Malcolm Kelly and Limas Sweed and hated James Hardy. Thought Josh Morgan, Earl Bennett and Andre Caldwell were nice sleepers. I did love Devin Thomas though. Other guys I liked that suck: Vernon Gholston, Leodis McKelvin, Antoine Cason, Brian Brohm. Rated Matt Ryan in the low 20's (usually where I rank QB's that everyone else likes and I don't, but I keep them in that area to hedge my bets in case I'm missing something).

2009: Thought Stafford was the best QB prospect I ever watched. Had Jason Smith as my #2 prospect with Sanchez #3 (both disappointing). Wasn't sure about Orakpo as an OLB. Liked Crabtree, Nicks, Britt, and Maclin in that order. HATED Knowshon Moreno, Robert Ayers and Aaron Maybin. Though Malcolm Jenkins could stick at CB. Thought Vontae Davis was a top five pick.

2010: Hated Clausen, liked Bradford. Actually, looking at the first round, nothing stands out as much different from mybig board....thought Rolando McClain, Anthony Davis and Derrick Morgan were overrated. Despised Tebow as a prospect. Loved Kyle Wilson. Loved Gronkowski. Hated Brandon Spikes.

2011: Here's my big board. Looks like I overrated Johnny Patrick. Completely forgot Marcel Dareus, he would have been top 10, probably just ahead of Ponder. Ranked Gabbert to hedge my bets, but I really disliked him. Swear to God, I had DeMarco Murray at #33.

1. Julio Jones
2. Prince Amukamara
3. Cam Newton
4. Nick Fairley
5. A.J. Green
6. Patrick Peterson
7. Christian Ponder
8. Von Miller (as a 4-3 OLB)
9. Aldon Smith
10. Robert Quinn
11. Derrek Sherrod
12. Mike Pouncey
13. Jake Locker
14. Ryan Kerrigan
15. Kyle Rudolph
16. Stephen Paea
17. Johnny Patrick
18. Cameron Jordan
19. Jimmy Smith
20. J.J. Watt
21. Tyron Smith
22. Gabe Carimi
23. Corey Liuget
24. Ryan Mallett
25. Taiwan Jones
26. Mark Ingram
27. Brandon Harris
28. Muhammad Wilkerson
29. Blaine Gabbert
30. Adrian Clayborn
31. Terrell McClain
32. Phil Taylor

DraftSavant
12-20-2011, 06:56 PM
Ernest Shazor...now there's a name I haven't seen in a LONG time.

ChiFan24
12-20-2011, 07:04 PM
Oh and before anyone asks, no, I do not expect anyone to read all that. But it was fun for me to go back and look at past drafts, so I decided to post it.

ChiFan24
12-20-2011, 07:05 PM
Ernest Shazor...now there's a name I haven't seen in a LONG time.

Thought he was a top 10 prospect. Not sure why.

prock
12-20-2011, 07:45 PM
Last years draft

Hit: Cam Newton
I was a big Newton fan all last season and was one of the few posters that was saying he was worth a #1 pick. Newton has displayed the raw talent he has and now with the NFL coaching, he is just starting to become the "supastar" he is able to be.

Miss: Aldon Smith
I thought Smith was one of the reaches of the 1st round, but looking back I clearly missed here. Smith has translated to the 3-4 OLB position with ease already have has double digit sack #'s already.

These were my top two hits and misses from this past draft I would say.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-20-2011, 08:11 PM
I feel like everyone loved Ernest Shazor and Darnell Bing.

ChiFan24
12-20-2011, 08:28 PM
Didn't like Bing. Did love Ko Simpson.

ElectricEye
12-20-2011, 08:30 PM
I feel like everyone loved Ernest Shazor and Darnell Bing.

Nah, not me.

However, I will always hold a candle for Dwayne Slay.

YELoLH0AymM

will99890
12-20-2011, 10:28 PM
My two biggest, most memorable misses were Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington. Though Leftwich is still one of my favorite college players to this day.

My most recent hits (besides no brainers like Megatron and AD) are Mario "workout warrior" Williams and Matt Leinart. I knew Mario was/would be a beast and thought Lineart was terrible with a noodle arm who excelled only because of his absolutely stacked team. I could throw Matt Ryan in too. He really impressed me his senior year playing on an above average team at best.

On a side note, I loved Aldon Smith before the draft. Thought he moved like a basketball player... so smooth. Figured if he went to a 3-4 team it would be a pretty seamless transition. So glad he went to my Niners.

WCH
12-21-2011, 08:25 AM
Ernest Shazor...now there's a name I haven't seen in a LONG time.

What the hell happened to that guy? He was a five-star recruit and then a monster at Michigan and everybody thought that he would be a second round pick when he declared. Then he went undrafted and only one team even gave him a shot (the Cardinals cut him).

The only thing I could find in google was that he signed with the Orlando Predators, but then never reported. Neither the team nor the agent knew where he was and they wound up putting an APB out on him. Then the team waived him.

I'm guessing he went undrafted because teams figured out he that he was a flake?

DeathbyStat
12-25-2011, 12:56 PM
well.....lets see...

I'll just go back to 2005...don't feel like going all way the back to 1998. my first draft.

2005

MISS-Alex Smith-figured Smith was athletic and smart enough to be a successful NFL QB very quickly.

MISS-Cedric Benson-Big fan of Cedric Benson would have taken him ahead of Cadillac.

MISS-Troy Williamson-Loved his speed, too bad I didn't realize he couldn't catch. Whoops

MISS-Mike Williams-liked Braylon a bit more, but thought Mike would be a serviceable red zone target at the worst

Hit-Demarcus Ware-Loved this guy, best pass rusher in the league today

Hit-Shawn Merriman-Loved his intensity, shame the injuries derailed his career

Hit-Derrick Johnson-Took him awhile to become an elite player but I think he is there right now

Hit-David Pollack-Didn't really understand the Pollack hype, but if he wouldn't have gotten hurt he might have proved me wrong.

Miss-Erasmus James-Thought he would be an explosive pass rusher

Miss-Matt Coke Zero Jones-Felt that he would eventually develop into a good player with his size and speed

Miss-Aaron Rodgers-Might be my biggest draft miss ever, felt that he was too mechanical and he had the Tedford pedigree working against him

Hit-Heath Miller-Loved the pick at the time

DBNYDP
12-28-2011, 04:29 PM
I only followed the last three drafts, and only last year did I follow it really closely. So that being said here's my list (could be off in a couple years as players might blossom/bust late).

Hits
-Andy Dalton: I didn't think he'd be a stud but I definitely thought he could be one of the better QBs in the league and arguably the best QB in that draft class.
-Casey Matthews: I adamantly bashed Matthews as nothing more than a backup and special teamer, and I haven't been impressed at all by him this year. It could change as he grows as a player but for now...

Misses
-Cam Newton: I thought he would really struggle to throw at the NFL level, and I thought he floated his passes too much and would be intercepted in tighter coverage situations (which is sort of true). But he's obviously shown that he can be a good passer at the NFL level so I was clearly wrong.
-Von Miller: I thought he was a one dimensional speed pass rusher, and thought he was a bad pick for my Broncos. Before he got the cast on he was a stud against the run too and was really good at shedding blocks/bull rushing too. Glad to be wrong here.

DI
12-28-2011, 04:52 PM
HITS

1. Jon Beason: I remember being ecstatic when he was still on the board and the Giants were on the clock. Wanted him desperately and we ended up taking Aaron Ross. Just writing that makes me that much angrier. Words can not describe my hatred for Aaron Ross.

2. Cam Newton: Thought Cam had all the tools and size to be a very good starting quarterback at this level but didn't think he'd be this good and this early as well but I was on the Newton bandwagon.

3. Alex Smith: Didn't see the infatuation with him. Always did and still do think that he was a product of the Urban Meyer system. Just never saw anything special in the kid and still don't.

4. Brian Orakpo: Thought it was absolute highway robbery that he fell as far as he did. For sure had him penciled to Buffalo when he fell as far as he did when they took Aaron Maybin. Just didn't see the downside with this guy.

5. Ray Rice: I remember having Ray Rice pegged to the Seahawks at the end of the 1st round in my mock draft and saying I thought he would be the best running back in his class. Loved him from the start. Remember calling him "MJD light".

MISSES

1. Joey Harrington: Man, did I love this kid coming out of school. Thought he had it all and that giant billboard of him in NYC didn't help either.

2. Robert Gallery: Was incredibly pissed when the Giants didn't end up getting him. I thought for sure that, if we took him, he'd be our LT for a decade.

3. Teyo Johnson: Remember him? One of the first guys to go from college basketball player to professional football player and also played a couple of seasons of football at Stanford as well. I thought he was going to be an absolute beast at the next level at tight end for Oakland. Never happened.

4. Vladimir Ducasse: I know he is raw but man, I thought this guy was going to turn into a mauler for the Jets. I couldn't have been more wrong. He's not close to sniffing the field for them and it wouldn't shock me at all if he isn't on the team next year.

A Perfect Score
12-28-2011, 08:33 PM
Oh my, this is going to take a while.

2006
Hits
Haloti Ngata - I thought he would be good, but not this good.
Antonio Comartie - He's still my favorite CB prospect ever
DeAngelo Williams - Loved him. Disappointed by his pro career so far, actually.
Marcedes Lewis - I thought he'd be the next big thing at the TE position after Tony Gonzalez
Maurice Jones Drew - I loved both the UCLA guys that year. I thought MJD would be a stud.
Misses
Vince Young - Needs no explanation.
Michael Huff - I thought he was the next Ed Reed.
Tye Hill - Sad panda.
Jimmy Williams - I loved him.

2007
Hits
Ryan Kalil - Quite liked him.
Lamar Woodley - I was a big Woodley fan, wanted him on the Ravens
Marshawn Lynch - Obviously Adrian Peterson is the best RB prospect I've ever seen, but I loved Lynch as well.
Misses
Aaron Ross - I thought he was going to be a good one.
Jamaal Anderson - I loved the versatility along the defensive line, but he was oh so slow.

2008
Hits
John Stewart - Still one of my favorite RB prospects.
Brandon Flowers - Was my #2 CB in the draft behind Mike Jenkins.
Desean Jackson - One of the most electrifying college players I've ever seen.
Misses
Felix Jones - I thought he'd be much, much better then Darren McFadden.
Quentin Groves - Another guy I wanted to have on the Ravens quite badly.

Bit of Both
Mike Jenkins - I wanted him so badly on the Ravens.

2009
Hits
Clay Mathews - Was #1 on my Ravens wishlist that year. Even drafted him in the Forum Mock.
Mike Oher - He was my #1 OT throughout the entire draft process.
Brandon Pettigrew - Loved that he was a complete TE.
Misses
Sean Smith - Was another one of my favorite players in the draft. Wouldn't have had a problem with him to the Ravens in Round 1. I had a massive fit when Ozzie drafted Kruger over him in Round 2.
Phil Loadholt - I thought he'd be a good one.

2010
Hits -
Dez Bryant - He was my #3 player in the entire draft.
Sean Weatherspoon - My #2 choice after Dez for the Ravens. Boo Falcons.
Rob Gronkowski - He was another guy I would have loved in the first round. I was a huge fan.

Misses -
CJ Spiller - One of my favorite RB prospects since I started scouting. Showing a little this year, but I expected big things.
Jerry Hughes - This one speaks for itself.
Ryan Mathews - I thought he was overdrafted by nearly a full round.

There are probably many more, but those are the first that came to mind.

CDCB14
12-28-2011, 08:38 PM
Bit of Both
Mike Jenkins - I wanted him so badly on the Ravens.

Mike Jenkins is actually having a really good year, but he's been hurt and only has 1 pick so people don't notice. Next year is his contract year, and I expect a big year from him if healthy.

JBCX
12-28-2011, 08:42 PM
Mike Jenkins is actually having a really good year, but he's been hurt and only has 1 pick so people don't notice. Next year is his contract year, and I expect a big year from him if healthy.

There's a difference between expecting a big year from someone and actually getting that big year right now.

Mike Jenkins has been awful for the past two years. There is little reason to expect him to be an elite CB at any point in the future.

CDCB14
12-28-2011, 09:21 PM
There's a difference between expecting a big year from someone and actually getting that big year right now.

Mike Jenkins has been awful for the past two years. There is little reason to expect him to be an elite CB at any point in the future.

Actually, your completely wrong. He made the pro-bowl in 2009. He had a bad year last season, but he has rebounded well this year when healthy. I think he gets labelled wrongfully because the rest of the cowboys secondary is awful. Jenkins is having a good year and it should continue into the future if he stays healthy. We'll just have to wait and see I guess.

ellsy82
12-28-2011, 09:58 PM
Noteworthy Hits:
JaMarcus Russell (Bust) - Duh
Jarvis Moss (Bust) - 56.5 KEI, uggh.
Derrick Harvey (Bust) - Just didn't like him as an athlete
Johnathon Stewart (Stud) - Starting to put it together if healthy
Aaron Maybin (Bust) - Poor speed/quickness ratio.

Noteworthy Misses:
Cam Newton (Bust) - Yeah, I've already taken my heat for this one.
James Hardy (Stud) - 6'6" 215 lbs receiver that runs a 4.45? Can't lose right?
Brian Robiskie (Stud) - Kid really disappointed me.
Larry English (Stud) - Hey, 69.5 KEI...just sayin...
Limas Sweed (Stud) - Another big/fast receiver with excellent college production.

Edit: I DID like Clay Matthews a lot after his pro day. But no, I didn't think he was gonna be this good.

ATLDirtyBirds
12-29-2011, 02:49 PM
I'm bored, so I'll go a little bit more in depth. (Starting in 2006, when I joined/really started to get into the draft)


2006


Hits:
Vernon Davis (Thought he was an absolute stud)
D'Brick (Thought he'd be a top flight pass blocker)
Elvis Dumervil (Big, big fan, didn't care that he wasn't tall, a natural)
Matt Leinart (Never saw him being decent)
MJD (Thanks for making me a believer Keak)
Ko Simpson (Despite Scar being in love with him, I was not a fan)
DeAngelo Williams (I'm calling it a hit because he's good, but it's probably more a both. I thought he'd be a top 5 back.)

Miss:
Michael Huff (though'd he be an elite safety)
Ernie Sims
Laurence Maroney (Wanted him badly, thought he'd be a monster in our old ZBS)
Jimmy Williams (I can't tell you how happy I was when we made that trade)
Darnell Bing (Whoops.)



2007

Hits:
Calvin Johnson (Easy)
LaRon Landry (Wanted him to fall to 8 so damn bad. So upset when the Skins picked him.)
Adrian Peterson (Knew he'd be an absolute monster)
Lawrence Timmons (Loved that man as a prospect)
Sabby Piscatelli (Never understood why Bucs fans loved that pick)
Michael Bush (Had confidence in him being a good back, even after injury)
Brady Quinn (Hated)
Anthony Gonzalez (Hated)
Jon Beason
Dwayne Bowe

Miss:
Amobi Okoye (Thought he would be a great 43 UT)
Brandon Merriweather
Alan Branch
Eric Weddle
Chris Houston
Lorenzo Booker

2008

Hits:
Chris Long (Took him a bit, but I was an enormous fan)
Darren McFadden (Thought he was just a tick below AD)
DeSean Jackson
Jamaal Charles
Curtis Lofton
Jermichael Finley
DRC
Aquib Talib

Misses:
Matt Ryan (it took a lot of toonster convincing for me to finally come around to: "He won't be awful")
Glenn Dorsey (expected dominance)
Dennis Dixon (thought he'd actually be starter material)
Keith Rivers (Loved)
Jerome Simpson (Loved)
Leodis McKelvin
Chilo Rachal
Dexter Jackson

2009

Hits:
Matthew Stafford
Brian Cushing
Vontae Davis
William Moore
Shon Greene (Never liked)
Shady McCoy
Brian Orakpo

Misses:

Michael Crabtree (Man crush)
Knowshon Moreno (Had him behind McCoy at least!)
Malcolm Jenkins (I blame this one on Jimmy Williams)
Clay Matthews
Ziggy Hood
Phil Loadholt
Michael Johnson (Thought he'd be elite)
Lawrence Sidbury (Thought he'd be a really nice pass rusher)


2010

Hits:
Joe Haden
JPP
Sean Weatherspoon
Dez Bryant
Jermaine Gresham
Jimmy Graham
Aaron Hernandez
Eric Decker

Misses:
Brandon Graham
CJ Spiller (Starting to turn it around?)
Dexter McCluster
Sergio Kindle
Rennie Curran
Carlos Dunlap
Kyle Wilson


2011 (Early Indications):

Hits:
Von Miller
AJ Green
Tyron Smith
Robert Quinn
Ryan Kerrigan
Patrick Peterson

Miss:
Cam Newton: Had no problems with anything (motion, arm, running ability, offense he came out of, etc.) But I apparently really underestimated his intelligence. Listening to him speak/watching Gruden's QB camp, I thought he was a complete moron who wouldn't be able to deal with an NFL playbook.

Andy Dalton: Good backup, nothing more.

Adrian Clayborn: Cripple.

Caulibflower
12-29-2011, 03:26 PM
2009

Hits:
...
Shon Greene (Never liked)



...a 1,000 yard rusher who was picked in the third round? I'm not saying he's great, but...

ATLDirtyBirds
12-30-2011, 11:13 AM
...a 1,000 yard rusher who was picked in the third round? I'm not saying he's great, but...


Yeah, maybe that's a bit of a stretch I just don't ever watch him and think, "He's a good RB".


But also on my misses, add Dorin Dickerson in whatever draft he was in. I was such a big fan of that guy.

TACKLE
01-02-2012, 02:22 AM
Winston Justice. I thought he was garbage and would never make it as a starting OT in the league despite being viewed by most as a top 15 talent.


I was also one of those who liked Andre Woodson. :/

SchizophrenicBatman
01-02-2012, 02:40 AM
I'm not sure what the people who are disappointed by DeAngelo were expecting. He's been excellent every year up until this one, where he started the season poor but finished strong. Dude has a career YPC over 5 and yea, some of that is busting long runs but no one hated on Chris Johnson for that

It wasn't until this year that I thought Stewart surpassed him and some of that may just be the offensive scheme changing

As a big fan of him in the draft he hasn't disappointed me at all as a Panther.

ATLDirtyBirds
01-02-2012, 08:15 AM
Also, Dorin Dickerson. I ******* loved that guy. I suppose I can cut myself some slack on that after hitting big on Jermichael and Aaron Hernandez.

Nalej
01-02-2012, 09:10 AM
Hits:
OLB- C.Barwin: Thought he'd look good in NE. Looks like I was right
RB- J.Charles: Loved him in TX. Though, his breakout season was better than I ever imagined. Hopefully he recovers fully
ILB- D.Johnson: This one is a mix. I thought he'd be a stud @ OLB.
RB- B.Jacobs: For a 4th rdr, Giants all time rush TD leader
RB- A.Peterson: He's here only bc of the R.Bush vs AD debates. I thought they were ridiculous. I thought AD was going talked about as the greatest ever and thought R.Bush would be what he was this year. No brainer.



Misses:
QB- Akili Smith: Thought he was going to be what McNabb turned into to
QB- B.Quinn: smh
QB- M.Stafford: "How's a 50% college compl percentage going to translate to NFL? It won't"
OLB/DE- V.Gholston: Yea, I thought he'd save the Pats pass rush probs
WR- S.Holmes: "Overrated won't do ****"
WR- C.Jackson: "Stud!!!"

Bobertchin
01-03-2012, 09:20 AM
I don't really keep track of such things, so it's hard to remember. But I did say that Maroney would be a bust. I thought he was scared of contact and wouldn't fight for tough yards. His rookie year made me look way off, but he came back to where I had him quickly enough. I got a lot of flak for that when I posted it, but I seem to have been right.

As for misses, I do recall that I thought Lavelle Hawkins would be a better pro than Desean Jackson. Heh. Also, I thought the Titans did well when they landed Andre Woolfolk!

the_dark_knight
01-03-2012, 09:39 AM
I'll try to dig through my memory:

I loved Maroney coming out of Minnesota(still think he could play in a better system for RBs)

I LOVED Rashaan Slaaam coming out of Colorado, thought he could be the next Barry Sanders, oops.

I hated Matt Ryan, oops.

I didn't like run DMC at all (actually preferred Peyton Hillis, which in hind sight isn't that bad of an idea)

OHHHHHHH Everette Brown, that kid looked like he was going to be a top shelf speed rusher in the NFL. I knew he was inconsistent with effort, but I thought he'd really try when he got paid, especially after getting 'snubbed' out of the first round.

Offensive lineman, someone like Chris Williams, I think that was his name. I thought he was going to be a stud RT.

I liked Sam Baker which went from good, to bad, to awful.

I hated Brady Quinn, bingo

I liked Shady McCoy,bingo

Last year I loved DeMarco Murray and was kicking and screaming for him to go to the Falcons. Before the injury, that was a major bingo.

So many more I'm sure but that's enough for now.

ericzedwards
01-03-2012, 04:41 PM
I loved Brady Quinn so damn much that I'm still not ready to admit he couldn't be good if ever given another chance. Probably the most pathetic hope I've ever clung to.

On the hits side, I thought Jamarcus was a waste of life. Which probably just stemmed from my Quinn love rather than from any actual evaluation.

Others:
-Missed on JPP. Thought he was just a workout freak. Didn't think he'd actually be able to play NFL football.
-Missed big on Clausen (my Notre Dame redemption pick), although I hated Bradford and right now it's not obvious that he can play either.
-I thought Geno Atkins would be one of the best DTs from the 2010 Draft and, with 8 sacks this year, it's looking like perhaps I was right on that one.

J-Mike88
01-03-2012, 04:55 PM
I loved:
Brandon Graham
Jerry Hughes
Everette Brown
Larry English
Randy Moss
Abdul Hodge
Jason Worilds
Jerome Simpson
Robert Meachem
DeMarcus Ware
Beanie Wells
Mikel Leshoure
Titus Young
Sean Taylor
Kenny Phillips
Brandon Merriweather
Randall Cobb
Barry Sanders
Derrick Thomas

Liked:
Aaron Rodgers
AJ Hawk
Lawrence Maroney
Brian Brohm

Didn't like:
Greg Jennings
Clay Matthews (for the price)
Matt Flynn
Jamarcus Russell
Cam Newton
Tony Mandarich
Joe Flacco
Mark Sanchez
Jordy Nelson
Josh Freeman

Caulibflower
12-21-2012, 09:54 PM
Bored, so I'm thinking about this again with most of the 2012 season in the books:

Hits

Doug Martin was one of my favorite prospects in the 2012 draft.
I was all about T.Y. Hilton, too.
I had Robert Turbin, Russell Wilson and Jaye Howard all sig-mocked to the Seahawks (admittedly, not all simultaneously).
Had Russell Wilson ranked behind Tannehill and ahead of Weeden (Should've been another QB in the first round, eh?)
Was convinced Sam Bradford would be mediocre.
Thought Aldon Smith could do whatever he wanted at Mizzou and had my money on him for the NFL.
Loooved Cameron Jordan. Was so pissed when the Saints took him the spot ahead of us.


Misses

I thought CJ Spiller was going to suck.
Thought Mark Ingram would be more like Doug Martin. But this could be the Saints.
Thought Dontari Poe was fool's gold, but I've been hearing mostly positive things about him.
Thought Von Miller was a workout warrior who'd get knocked around by NFL lineman who didn't care how fast he was.
Didn't believe the JPP hype.

SeanTaylorRIP
12-21-2012, 09:59 PM
Larry English is supposed to be a dominant force :( , I did say Joe Morgan was a super sleeper and would be a great deep ball guy and he's becoming that in New Orleans.

descendency
12-21-2012, 10:20 PM
I didn't think Bradford would stay healthy and quested his development behind an elite line at OU. Hit.

Thought Jimmy Clausen was a winner despite his poor record (terrible defense). Big miss.

Was huge on Cam Newton. Hit.

Thought Mark Ingram would be a stud RB. Miss

Thought Matt Ryan would be crap. Miss (though, if he doesn't win a playoff game, Tim Tebow will have won more...)

I thought Tebow would find his home at a skill position. Hit?

I wouldn't have touched Dez Bryant.

I was a huge fan of Doug Martin (one of the first probably...).

I wasn't a big fan of Taylor Mays until the end when I thought he was at least smarter than Roy Williams...

Thought Eugene Monroe and Michael Oher were much better than Jason Smith. Andre Smith too. (was a big fan of Andre Smith)

I loved Tyron Smith. I would have given up quite a bit to get him.

I had Kirk Cousins' as a first rounder. Sadly, I didn't think Russell Wilson was even a mid rounder.

brasho
12-22-2012, 09:26 AM
My biggest hits?

I stated on the old Buccaneer.com message board that JaMarcus Russell would eat himself out of the league within 5 years. He lasted four, perhaps not eating himself, but purple dranking himself out of the league.

I also blasted Glenn Dorsey for not being explosive enough to ever be a star in the NFL (I think he ran 5.28, and didn't jump well, which for a smallish DT, was a huge concern to me) while saying Chris Long would be a very good DE.

It's well known around here, how much on Colin Kaepernick's jock two drafts ago. I called him Randall Cunningham 2.0, Cam Newton-lite, etc. I may have underestimated him, but I'll still call it a hit.

I really liked Doug Martin last season and stated that the difference between he and Trent Richardson was extraordinarily small and that anybody that would take Richardson in the top 5 deserved to be fired. Wow, I hit on all of those statements except the difference between Martin and RIchardson being small. Apparently, at this point, the difference between the two is fairly obvious (just not the way most thought).

On the Bucs team board I stated how much I hated the Gerald McCoy draft selection and everybody told me I had no clue what I was talking about, didn't know anything, etc.... It's year 3 and McCoy MIGHT be above average, and not close to elite, which is what I had stated.

Also on the old buccaneers.com message board. There was a debate on the best QB in college. People were debating Bradford vs. Clausen vs. Tebow vs. McCoy and I boldly stated that the best QB in college right then was Stanford redshirt freshman Andrew Luck. Little did I know that RG3 was already at Baylor so there is a chance I was wrong there... but I was a lot closer than those other fools. :)

I hated Gaines Adams with a passion. Here was a 6th year senior that took until year 5 to win a starting job and despite being 24 and playing against 20 year olds, he actually dominated. I hate overaged prospects on the lines. Danny Watkins, and Peria Jerry were other objects of my wrath. (I also stated that no team in their right mind would draft a 28 year old rookie QB).

Vernon Gholston-I just didn't see it. I didn't think he'd be a huge bust, but I saw about 10 or so total tackles in his last year that weren't behind the LOS and wondered if he had any motor at all.


My misses?
How much room do I have here?

I hated Matt Ryan. Thought he didn't have the arm strength, mobility, and the right mental acuity to be a great one. He still isn't great. But I said his ceiling was Chad Pennington and if he was lucky, Phillip Rivers.

Jamaal Anderson- I said would be the second coming of Mario Willams and Julius Peppers. I really wanted the Bucs to draft him instead of Gaines Adams... my final wish for that draft ended up being Patrick Willis so there is a little saving grace there.

Trevor Laws- I thought he would be a dominant DT in the NFL.

Philip Merling- Really liked him coming out of Clemson.

Adrian Peterson- I said that if he couldn't stay healthy in college, there was no way he could stay healthy in the NFL. Still preferred him over Gaines Adams, however.

Andy Dalton- I didn't like him very much coming out of TCU. I stated his ceiling was Brian Griese... turns out Brian Griese had some pretty good years before getting booted out of Denver. In my defense, I didn't like Christian Ponder either.

brasho
12-22-2012, 09:34 AM
Bucs related... I hated Michael Clayton, I wanted Tommie Harris and then when he went a pick earlier, I wanted Steven Jackson.

I didn't like Cadillac at all, thought I was wrong after the first 3 games of his career, turns out those first 3 games were the high point of his career.

Hated drafting an OG in round 1, David Joseph. I wanted Chris Johnson... as a 3rd down RB and WR.

Already talked about my passionate hate over Gaines Adams as a prospect, I wanted Patrick Willis.

Didn't think for a second the Bucs would draft CB Aqib Talib... right off hand I can't remember who I wanted (probably a DL).

There were others that i mostly right on but my anger over their terrible choices may have clouded my mind...

Ohh, recently I didn't like the selecton at all of McCoy (though he was no better than an above average prospect, wanted to trade down) and Adrian Clayborn, a LDE-type that could only play RDE (wanted Cameron Jordan).. actually wanted Aldon Smith, then Ryan Kerrigan, then JJ Watt.. but they were gone. Didn't like Clayborn at all.

cmarq83
12-22-2012, 09:53 AM
My 2012 draft preferences so far looks like my best ever. My 4 favorite prospects for the Patriots are already above average in the NFL.

Harrison Smith
Janoris Jenkins
Chandler Jones
Kevin Zeitler

I was also a fan of Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, and Mychal Kendricks who are all contributing.

There are a few misses. I thought Gilmore was massively overdrafted, but he's been good for the Bills. Poe has been better than I thought as well. Steven Hill and Shea McClellin haven't set the world on fire, and both were high on my board.

bucfan12
12-22-2012, 11:56 AM
Hits:
- Aaron Rodgers: I was screaming for the bucs to take him back in 2005. I knew he was better the best qb in that draft and it was a shame he fell that far.
- Ryan Kerrigan; another guy I wanted the bucs to move up for. He was just a pure football player with ggreat instincts.
- Jamarcus Russell: I just didn't see an nfl qb. Only had a big arm. I actually had Quinn rated #1 that year but wasn't a fan of him either.
- I said all along Bradford was nothing more than an average qb.
Misses:
- josh freeman: I liked him a lot coming out of college but he hasn't developed into a franchise qb. Erratic and can't beat good teams.
- Aldon smith: though he was too raw and said he wasn't a fit in 3-4 defense. Boy was I wrong.
-

wicket
12-22-2012, 12:11 PM
Hits:
Like everyone i thought JaMarcus Russell was gonna be useless
I thought AJ Green could become pro bowl calibre in his first three years
I thought Ingram was a square peg in a round hole with the saints
I thought Vontae Davis would be too much of a me-first player to ever amount to a great player
I thought Sam Bradfords lack of armstrength would hurt him as a player

Misses
I liked both Notre Dame QBs and especially Clausen coming out
I thought all four 2009 first round OTs could pan out and probably would
I thought Linvall Joseph would be amazing
I thought Clay Matthews would be the least of that batch of USC linebackers

Rosebud
12-22-2012, 12:16 PM
Gallery, Barden, Beatty, Sed Ellis, Reggie Nelson, Chris Houston, Jamaal Anderson and Brian Price come to mind as big whiffs on my part, but I'm sure there's many others.

I did love Cutler over Leinart and Young, and disliked both JR and Quinn in that draft, so at least I do better with QBs. Sam Bradford will be the ultimate test of that though cause I thought he would be doing what Luck has pulled off this year, and I guess Bradford did in his first year, dragging a terrible Rams team to barely missing the playoffs, but I figured he'd be a guy who started decently and just kept improving, rather than the kid who's still been unable to match that rookie year success that we have now.

EDIT: Oh yeah, JPP, I was one of 3 giants fans on this board happy with the pick and was extremely excited when we got him, I didn't expect him to be as good as he already is as fast as he's gotten there, but I did think he would one day be special.

AntoinCD
12-22-2012, 12:53 PM
Missed:

I never thought Von Miller was close to being worth a top 10 pick. I believe I actually described him as a rich man's Tully Banta-Cain. I think it's safe to say I'll have my crow medium rare on that one.

I LOVED Sederick Ellis. I thought he could be the top player from that draft. I also thought Derrick Harvey was going to be really good.

I wanted the Pats to land Ziggy Hood so badly a few years ago. I thought he had potential somewhere in the middle of Richard Seymour and Ty Warren.

Adam Carriker was another 5 technique that I really liked.

Aaron Ross was the best CB in the 2007 draft. Yip I thought that.

Brandon Graham was the best pass rusher in the 2010 draft. Yip I thought that.

Also loved Sergio Kindle that year (before finding out he had no knees)

Rob Gronkowski...do not want :facepalm: - thought he would never get over his back injury

Hits:

Thought Laron Landry was an overrated piece of ****

DHB??? Does he count seeing as only the Raiders thought he was going to be a star?

Peria Jerry - old and injury prone

Rey Mauluaga was going to be the worst of the 3 USC LBs

Thought Rolando McClain was way overdrafted. Thought he would be better than he is but never worth close to the pick he was taken from

Geno Atkins - steal

bulldog0123
12-23-2012, 02:48 PM
Hits:
Brandon Flowers
Earl Thomas
Ryan Matthews
Blaine Gabbert
Rob Gronkowski
Casey Hayward

Misses:
Patrick Lee
Jimmy Clausen
Knowshon Moreno
Rey Maualuga
Ernie Sims

Jury Still Out:
Cameron Jordan (Rated highly)
Jake Locker (Rated in top 3)

Unbiased
12-23-2012, 03:45 PM
Hits:



Blaine Gabbert- I was pretty adamant on the Jags' forum that I didn't want Blaine because of a lot of things I saw from him in college that are showing up now. Was really, REALLY hoping we'd get Locker instead.

.

Then obviously you need to add Locker to misses.

Caulibflower
12-23-2012, 04:39 PM
Jury Still Out:
Cameron Jordan (Rated highly)


I was a little concerned his rookie year, but he's come on in a big way this year. I expect him to really come into his own his third season, although I didn't expect it to take this long. If the jury's still out, I think they're about ready to submit a "hit" verdict.

MaxV
12-23-2012, 05:48 PM
Hits:

Aaron Rogers - I thought he was the best prospect in his draft year and a lot better then ...
Alex Smith - Ok, maybe he is starting to turn it around lately, but I never understood why he was a 1st overall pick
Maurice Jones Drew - I love short and stocky RBs. They are so difficult to tackle, especially with great quickness and speed.
Ray Rice - See MJD.
Mark Sanchez - He was still raw when he left USC and rarely do raw QB prospects become stars in NFL.
Joey Harrington - I never got the hype. He had 57% completion as a Senior. He got picked in the top 5 because of "intangibles"?
Donald Brown - At that time I was still giving Bill Polian a benefit of the doubt, but I kinda knew that 2,000 yards in Big East is not 1st round worthy.


Misses:

Matt Leinart - I was definitely on his bandwagon.
Tony Ugoh - Again, this was when I viewed Bill Polian as draft genius.
Jimmy Kennedy - He has played in the league for 8 years, but never the player I was almost certain he would become.
Wendell Bryant - I was kind of upset that Colts picked Freeney over Bryant, boy was I ever wrong here.

HypocrisyIsGreat
12-23-2012, 06:26 PM
Hits:
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
MJD
Aldon Smith
Gabbert
Patrick Willis
Adam Carriker
Julio Jones
Alex Smith

Misses
Brandon Graham
Ricky Stanzi
Robert Gallery
Manny Lawson
Brian Bulaga

Smash28Dash34
12-23-2012, 07:53 PM
Hits

- I consistently maintained that the Cowboys should've taken JJ Watt. No matter who else was there.

- Loved Muhammad Wilkerson. His length and wingspan stood out to me.

- Said Earl Thomas would be better than Berry. It's unfortunate Berry has been hurt, but even before the injury Thomas has been the better safety.

Misses

- Gabe Carimi, I never thought he would be a LT but I thought he could develop into a dominant RT. Just hasn't looked as good as I thought he would.

- Golden Tate, I thought he was overrated at ND. I have to admit he has really put together a solid year after a dismal rookie year.

bulldog0123
12-24-2012, 12:45 AM
I was a little concerned his rookie year, but he's come on in a big way this year. I expect him to really come into his own his third season, although I didn't expect it to take this long. If the jury's still out, I think they're about ready to submit a "hit" verdict.

Yeah, I was really worried after his rookie year. But he has 8+ sacks this year. If he can keep it up, he'll definitely be a hit.

stlouisfan37
12-24-2012, 03:56 AM
I am sure there are a lot of guys from the past, but I decided just to look at this past draft.


Hits

I really liked TY Hilton last year. I thought that with his speed and athleticism he would translate better to the pro game more than a lot of people. I don't think many people saw his production coming; it hasn't surprised me at all.

Robert Turbin - Everyone was so big on Chris Polk and Doug Martin, and no one was giving Turbin much love. While Martin has proven to be everything he was advertised, Polk has done nothing and Turbin has been a very dependable backup to one of the league's top rushers. If Lynch was not ahead of him in Seattle I think Turbin could have easily put up 800 yards and 6 TD's this year. Not bad for a 4th rounder.

Isaiah Pead - I'm calling this a hit because I didn't think much of his game, and he has disappointed miserably in St. Louis. I was actually very angry that the Rams took him over Turbin, even though I saw the reasoning behind taking a smaller, quicker back. Their 7th round pick, Daryl Richardson from Abilene Christian, has proven thus far to be a better player.

Misses

Brandon Weeden - While there were so many skeptics about Weeden, I thought he was better than he has been. I took the stance that just because he was almost 30 didn't take away from the fact that he could still be really good for 5-7 years. While he has put up decent numbers, and has definitely been an upgrade over McCoy, he has thrown a lot of picks and the Browns are in more of a predicament now, having used a 1st rounder on him last year, than they would be if they had stood pat. Especially since they could have taken any number of productive players and likely still had Weeden in the 2nd round.

RGIII - As a Rams fan, I really wanted to see the Redskins fall flat this year and bring us a top 10 pick from the trade, so I very much dismissed a lot of what RGIII brought to the NFL. I am still very pleased that we made that trade, as I am an strong advocate of trading down and building through sheer numbers, but RGIII has been much better than I thought he would be.

Lamar Miller - I really liked Miller coming out of college, and thought he would be the next coming of Clinton Portis. I have yet to see him on SportsCenter since the day the draft coverage ended.

Brown Leader
12-28-2012, 12:00 AM
Since I started posting.

Misses

1. Knowshon Moreno
Thought he'd be a better Kevin Faulk. He's managed to revive himself of late under Fox but he's still a huge disapointment based on where he went.

2. Everette Brown
Loved the highlights-didn't look enough at the all around game.

3. LeSean McCoy
Did not want the Browns to draft him after reading he tried to emulate Reggie Bush's playing style. Looked at him briefly at Pitt and wasn't blown away.

4. Robert Griffin
I don't think it's too soon to count him as a miss. I thought he'd be a roller coaster of a talent but his best strength so far has been his consistency.

5. Montario Hardesty
I thought he'd be a beast of a RB inside a WCO. Looked so much like Ryan Grant to me.

6. Andy Dalton
Watched a sub par performance senior week and didn't think he had much going for him. Also couldn't understand the hype after his pro day a month or so later.

Hits

1. J.J. Watt
My man crush in 11'. Even though the Browns were transitioning to the 43 defense, I still pimped him hard for us up until the draft. Loved everything about the guy. I thought he could start at DE and move inside on passing downs.

2. Navarro Bowman
Loved him. I saw a first round pick for sure when I watched him at Penn State but for some reason he wasn't regarded that high. Plus there were some character concerns.

3. Rolando McClain
Just didn't see what almost everyone else was seeing with this guy. I called him a slower, softer Dansby.

4. Percy Harvin
When the Browns kept trading down in 09', I thought Harvin was their target. I mentioned we'd regret passing him. I thought he would be a beast of a yac WR and be able to free up Cribbs on returns.

5. Demaryius Thomas
Loved him early on and again, like Iupati, his stock rose out of the range I thought the Browns could get him.

6. Mike Iupati
Liked him very early on in 10' and his stock just kept rising and rising.

7. Colt McCoy
Like many others, I didn't see an NFL QB. I literally let out a shout of relief when the Browns didn't take him with their 2nd rounder as had been mocked by everyone. Then we took him in the 3rd. He's actually been better then I'd imagined but still not a solid starting QB.

8. Kam Chancellor
Didn't rate him extremely high but I desperately wanted the Browns to draft him in the mid rounds after getting a good look at him senior week.

-The rest that I really liked who aren't clearly one or the other yet.

Greg Little
Sort of in the same "jury's still out" as Graham. Looked like a sure bust until around mid season. Since then he's looked much more like the guy most expected coming out of N.Carolina.

Brandon Graham
Possibly not as big of a miss since he's been playing well late in the season. Suppose he's in the middle with the jury still out.

Anthony Davis
Loved Davis early on and only stopped mocking him to the Browns after we picked up an OT in FA.

Caulibflower
10-14-2013, 11:35 PM
Bumping this thread again because it's a good way into a new year, there's some new blood in the water and a few players have stepped up their game as their careers continued, while others have regressed. To refresh anybody: A hit is a player you really loved or really disliked, relative to his perceived draft stock, that you were right about. A miss is a player you really loved or really disliked, relative to a prospect's perceived draft stock, that you were wrong about.

HITS:

I wasn't real high on RGIII and I'm going to put him on here. I thought his game was dependent on his ability to run, and I thought the way he ran was going to get him hurt. When he can't run, he's not effective. That's been the story so far. What we're seeing in Washington right now is what I predicted before he was drafted.

KEENAN ALLEN. Loved the guy, had him at the top of all my wide receiver rankings, thought teams were dumb for letting him fall, and he's turned into San Diego's number one wide receiver in the last month. They haven't fed a guy the ball like this in a long time. We'll see if he can maintain that. 20 catches for 302 yards in the last three games. He's not padding his numbers on fluky big plays; Philip Rivers is just throwing it to him all game.

Eddie Lacy is looking like I thought he would. Green Bay's happy to have a legitimate bruiser again, finally.

ZAC STACY! St. Louis finally listened to me and has started feeding him the ball. He's not flashy but he picks up yards consistently, and teams with struggling running games come around to appreciating that.

Larry Warford. Loved, love loved him as a bulldozing guard, and Detroit does, too.

MISSES:

I refused to buy the Giovani Bernard hype. I thought he wasn't fast enough. I told myself I was looking at Knowshon Moreno (pre-2013) version 2.0. I've got him on my fantasy team now. He's fun to watch.

I was yanking the horn chain on the Tavon Austin train as it was leaving the station, and I don't know what to think anymore. I thought his open-field ability would translate instantly, but he hasn't done a thing and we're a 3rd of the way through the regular season already. Is it route-running? Is it hands? Admittedly I haven't been watching many Rams games, but I don't think I've seen a Tavon Austin highlight all year.

grushcow
10-15-2013, 02:59 AM
Two misses really stick with me (but it was before the whole reviewing film phase...was more highlight related, with a bit of live games mixed in).

I really vouched for Jimmy Clausen...over Sam Bradford, well realistically I shouldn't have picked either....but Clausen was about as horrific as possible.

Then a guy I see a lot of guys say in Everrette Brown, his burst off the line was unreal...but he just never seemed to stick anywhere.

Would love Menelik Watson to see the field a bit too....not feeling so good about him now.

Also I was very down on Andre Smith, and for where he went he's definitely been a pretty big disappointment.

BigBanger
10-15-2013, 04:28 AM
Misses:

Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
Reshard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Reggie Bush, RB, USC
Cedric Benson, RB, Texas

Those three were all ranked in my Top 3 overall. Bush is having a resurgence to his career and just starting to look like the player I thought he was going to be, but his career has been way too mediocre for the superstar that I thought he was going to be. He was the easiest prospect to scout because his flaws were obvious. He just wasn't going to be as spectacular as we all thought he was going to be. Still a good player though. Those are my three major misses at the top of my board. I thought Gholston was the best player in his draft. A future 12+ sack a year type DE. Cedric Benson had a solid career, but I marveled at him in college. I thought he was easily the best RB in his draft class. I thought the Bears got a steal. Mendenhall has great talent, but he has his own issues preventing him from being special. I still like his talent, but he's just not a worker.


Some others:

Arron Sears, OG, Tennessee
Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan (Thought he was the best defensive player in his draft)
Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State (I defended the Chargers when they took him)
Cam Newton, QB, Auburn (Much better passer than I gave credit for and more pro ready)
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Eben Britton, OT, Arizona (I had him in my Top 20)
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Luis Castillo, DT, Northwestern (I loved his potential. I don't even know what happened to him)
Russell Wilson, QB, Nebraska (Never gave him a chance due to size)
Odell Thurman, LB, Georgia (Great talent; one of the best forgotten LBs in recent memory)
Jonathan Wade, CB, Tennessee (Fringe 1st Round Grade)
Broderick Bunkley, DT, Florida State
Antonio Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh
Josh Reed, WR, LSU
Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State
AJ Hawk, LB, Ohio State (He was the gold standard)
Tony Hunt, RB, Penn State
Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
Pat Lee, CB, Auburn
Mike Williams, WR, USC
Charles Rogers, WR, Michigan State (I thought Andre was better, but I still thought he was a beast)
Philip Merling, DE, Clemson
Geno Atkins, DT, Georgia (Didn't have a clue he was this good)
Justin Houston, DE, Georgia (Thought he was a second rounder, he was damn near elite)
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama (He was great... I swear he was)

I am way too high on too many Tennessee players.



Hits:

Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
Vincent Jackson, WR, Northern Colorado
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
Joey Harrington, QB, Oregon

Revis, Jackson, Quinn and Harrington are some of my biggest hits. I called Revis a better prospect than Terrance Newman and the best CB I've ever seen. He was my 4th ranked player overall and I gave him an elite grade. Vincent Jackson was ranked in my Top 10 overall. If anything, he's been less impressive than I what I thought he was going to be. Quinn and Harrington were two obvious busts to me. Quinn had a lot of detractors as the process wore on, but I bashed the living hell out of these two. More than any other QB before it, or since.

Other players I was either really high on that panned out or really low on that failed.


LaMarr Woodley, LB, Michigan (Top 10)
Chad Jackson, WR, Florida (Unranked, called him a fraud who couldn't run routes)
Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame (He's worse than Quinn, which I didn't expect)
Anquan Boldin, WR, Florida State (Loved him. Had him in my Top 5 Overall)
Brandon Marshall, WR, Central Florida (Mid 1st Round; one of my better predictions)
Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina (Unranked)
Marion Barber III, Minnesota (Liked him)
Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota (Hated him; bad pick by NE though)
Reggie Williams, WR, Washington (Big slow and dumb. Celebrated a 6 yard catch like a game winning TD in the Super Bowl)
Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech (#6 overall for me)
Justin Miller, CB, Clemson
Darnell Docket, DT, Florida State (Top 15)
Larry Johnson, RB, Penn State (Top 5)
Steven Jackson, RB, Oregon State (Top 10)
Byron Leftwich, QB, Marshall (Unranked)
Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State (Can't remember where I had him. Maybe 3rd round, but he was a reach in round 1 and a terrible pick)
Clinton Portis, RB, Miami (FL) - (Top RB in his draft and Top 10 overall)
TJ Duckett, RB, Michigan State
NaVorro Bowman, LB, Penn State (Loved his game, thought his character was going to make him an Odell Thurman though)
Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
William Green, RB, Boston College
Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (I don't know if I've ever been more right about a player)
Tye Hill, CB, Clemson
Manny Lawson, DE, NC State
Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford
Mike Wallace, WR, Ole Miss
Donte Whitner, S, Ohio State
Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio State
Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss

I'm not even sure these count:

Aaron Maybin, LB, Penn State
Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Taylor Mays, S, USC

Blawbert
10-15-2013, 08:07 AM
Really thought matt trannon and mike haas were going to be top shelf receivers.

Brown Leader
10-15-2013, 05:21 PM
Couple of my misses above looking a little better right now.
Here's a few I forgot and some others technically too early but...


Misses

Joe Haden
For me, he was too small and not fast enough. I was terrified of taking him top ten. One of the leaders of the Browns now and continues to get better. I still don't think he's quite as good as his rep but he was well worth a top ten select. Thanks Mangini.

Jarrett Brown
I thought he'd be a developmental guy that surprised. Instead he wasn't even drafted and couldn't hold a job as an udfa.

Dorrin Dickerson
I thought I was seeing a poor man's Demaryius Thomas. Nope.

Trevor Guyton
Couldn't make the Vikings 53 and hasn't been picked up by anyone. Still holding out hope for one of my favorite guys coming out that I though would be a diamond in the rough but I think it's a clear miss so far.


Hits

Danny Trevathan
Absolutely loved him coming out and I couldn't figure why he wasn't more highly regarded. Had a disastrous draft post season and became a late round steal for Denver. A top 100 guy to me.

Mo Claiborne
I was one of the very few not high on him at all. I've mentioned before how I really soured on him after, imo, he got outplayed by little Stedman Bailey in 11'. He's got plenty time to turn it up but so far not coming close to expectations.

Keenan Allen
Also an enormous Allen fan. Ran him in my sig in a Browns' uniform for months. Adamant that he was a first round caliber talent. He and Gordon would've been like Dez and a healthy Miles.

Anthony Davis
I think I can call Davis a hit finally. Jumped on the bandwagon very early when he was at Rutgers. Slowly becoming the OT he was supposed to be.

Chase Minnefield
Saw a latter round guy, at best, every time. I'm still not sure why he was highly regarded by some-maby it was the lineage.

Sam Montgomery
Recently released. I never bought the hype on his on field play then that scathing statement by an LSU coach pre draft sealed it for me.

Jury's still out...

David Wilson
Favorite RB coming out last year. Certainly shown flashes, but this year, given the opportunity to start, he's been a monumental disappointment

Michael Floyd
I figured he'd make a much bigger impact by now.

Tyler Wilson
Figured he'd be taking the reins of the Raiders about now.

Dee Millner
I didn't see an elite level CB at all. Too early to say but he definitely hasn't hit the ground running.

Jordan Reed
One of my guys coming out that was getting overlooked. I felt very confident he'd outplay his draft position. So far so good.

Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener
It was clear to me Allen was the better guy. Thus far it's sorta played out that way but still early for both.

Brock Osweiler
Huge fan of his coming out. Made a little breakdown of him vs Tannehill. There's no way really to tell where he's at either way but I thought I'd include him based on all the man love I gave him and how bad Weeden is looking.