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View Full Version : How many draft picks would you give up...


BeerBaron
12-28-2011, 09:29 AM
...for a veteran, in-his-prime QB?

With the (bull ****) rumors that the #1 pick this year could be worth 4-6 first round picks, it got me thinking...

What would you give up for someone like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees right now in draft picks?

No one, anywhere, ever, would give up 4-6 first round picks for ANY rookie. Andrew Luck is great, but he's not worth that. You'd simply be unable to build a team around him lacking first round picks for the following 6 years.

But extend that to veterans for a second. I think the closest we've come in recent years to seeing a top QB moved was Jay Cutler. He made a pro bowl in Denver and pretty clearly had franchise QB tools. Guys like that very, very rarely ever get moved and he was worth two firsts, a 3rd and a veteran game manager (Orton) in trade.

Carson Palmer this year, while past his prime in my and any sensible person's opinion, was worth a 1st and 2nd. I don't think any team who isn't the Raiders gives up anything close to that for him, but I've brought it up for the sake of argument.

So, to the main question then, what would be the max you'd give up in draft picks for an elite in-his-prime QB right now?

I'd say 3 first round picks and that would be all. Like I said before, giving up more than that would simply make it impossible to surround him with high level talent. And I don't think a team, even if they were for some reason desperate to trade the guy, would accept that.

Nalej
12-28-2011, 09:35 AM
Shane broke it down pretty well, I thought.
Future 1st are graded as 2nd rd picks in the current draft. (in point system)


Of course it won't happen EXACTLY like that. But let's weigh the value, shall we?

6 first rounders at the 32nd pick = 3,540 points on the trade value chart.


Let's take the Browns, who would be in best position to give up the most picks for Luck. Right now, they have the 5th and 22nd 1st round pick, and I will keep consistent with that 5th for each round. Let's say they give up their first four picks:

3,255 points of trade value with the 5th, 22nd, 37th, and 69th picks.

A future 2nd is worth approx. 265 points (top 3rd round pick) which gives us 3,520 total.

Toss in a 6th round pick, and the total comes to:
3,545.5


So, in all the Browns would give up:
2 1sts
2 2nds (one future)
3rd
6th

and equal 6 first round picks. Is that completely insane for Luck? It equals 6 first rounders.




Let's look a bit lower and try the Chiefs at 12. To get to 3,540 points, we will have to be a bit more creative. We will use the current projection of 12th pick in each round

Current picks: 1,200 (first) + 460 (2nd) + 210 (3rd)

Future Picks 580 (first) + 265 (2nd) + 112 (3rd)

That is 2,827 points. Gives us a difference of 713, a late first round pick. Is Glenn Dorsey worth that much? You decide, but 2 firsts, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, and a player or two could easily equal 6 first round picks.


With that said, if you're willing to give up 6 1st rdrs for a gamble,
I don't see how you don't give up more for a proven commodity.

BeerBaron
12-28-2011, 09:39 AM
I don't like the trade chart. In fact I hate it. 6 potential first round caliber players, or even a assemblage of top 3 round picks plus players, is going to do more for a team than any one guy.

Even Rodgers + nothing but mid-late round picks for 3 years is going to have a hard time winning.

AntoinCD
12-28-2011, 09:39 AM
Hypothetically if I was GM of Cleveland and Mike McCarthy hinted that Aaron Rodgers would be available in a trade for the right price I would think nothing of offering both my 1st this year, my second and third this year, my first, second and third next year and a conditional pick in 2014. A third that could go to a second should they make the playoffs and a first should they make the Superbowl. I would also throw in a veteran or two. The only players I would not consider moving would be Joe Thomas and Joe Haden.

2x2012 1st
2012 2nd
2012 3rd
2013 1st
2013 2nd
2013 3rd
2012 3rd conditonal

Plus Phil Taylor and D'qwell Jackson

For Brees it would be less due to age

K Train
12-28-2011, 09:50 AM
easily 3-4 first round picks, sprinkle in a few mid round picks or role players and maybe a probowl player as well.

id give that up for luck, id definitely give that up for rodgers.

brees, not so much...thats jmo though

AntoinCD
12-28-2011, 09:51 AM
Teams and fans in particular love first round picks because that's where the majority of the best players in the league were drafted(not all but the majority) and think with 3 first round picks we should get 3 all pro players. But clearly that's not how it works.

Say for the top 10 players in the NFL, maybe 7 were drafted in the first round in the last 10 years. 32 picks per year equals 320 picks. That means over 300 of those guys drafted are not top 10 players. I would gladly take my chances with the proven top player than gable in the draft

That's why in my hypothetical scenario I don't think I could give up enough draft picks for Aaron Rodgers. You are getting probably the best player in the NFL and have to give up picks for unproven guys who could bust.

JBCX
12-28-2011, 09:54 AM
You can't give up enough to secure a a franchise QB, especially one of the 3 best QBs in the league.

However, at a certain point you are stripping your team's future roster barren. I would gladly give up two 1st round picks and as many as three 1st round picks for an Aaron Rodgers type of player, with additional players and lower picks thrown in, but I'd have to draw the line at four 1st round picks. At that point, you are killing the future of your franchise.

jsagan77
12-28-2011, 10:02 AM
Look at how bad the Colts have been at drafting in the first round every single year, yet they are perennial contenders with Peyton at the helm. It seems like the Pats blow a 1st rounder on a CB every year too but they are contenders. If I could get Aaron Rodgers I would give up every 1st round pick I had while he was playing and wouldn't think twice about it. He's a known commodity and has a lot of years of elite play in him. Plus I could build around him with the rest of my draft picks and go nuts in FA if I had to.

There's a big difference trading for some one you know is top 3 and trading 6 1st rounders for someone who has a CHANCE of being a top QB.

BeerBaron
12-28-2011, 10:15 AM
Look at how bad the Colts have been at drafting in the first round every single year, yet they are perennial contenders with Peyton at the helm. It seems like the Pats blow a 1st rounder on a CB every year too but they are contenders. If I could get Aaron Rodgers I would give up every 1st round pick I had while he was playing and wouldn't think twice about it. He's a known commodity and has a lot of years of elite play in him. Plus I could build around him with the rest of my draft picks and go nuts in FA if I had to.

There's a big difference trading for some one you know is top 3 and trading 6 1st rounders for someone who has a CHANCE of being a top QB.

And the Colts have won just one Superbowl with a top 5-10 all time great QB despite making the playoffs every year for a decade, and were one-and-done more years than not in that stretch.

And the Patriots now...ask any Patriot fan, Brady IS the reason they are able to do what they do. I'm sure they'd love to have actually hit on some guys, but instead, they've had two straight one-and-done playoff seasons and right now have the worst defense in football.

BF51 said one time in an argument that outside of the first round, there's maybe a 5-10% of chance of finding a pro bowler. I went to look it up to try and disprove him and....he's right. You can still find a few in the 2nd or even 3rd round, but in any given round of any given year, you might only find 1-2 guys who ever even went to one pro-bowl. If that. His 5-10% is spot on.

Teams that regularly "hit" on guys outside the first round aren't exactly striking it rich with top NFL players. "Hitting" on a 5th round pick might just mean finding an adequate starter at that guy's position.

If you want to see what happens to a team with years of first round pick atrophy, look at the Buffalo Bills. They did a great job of finding guys off of scrap heaps and in later rounds or even undrafted, like Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, and Stevie Johnson, but soooo many of their first round picks were worthless or have left the team so that they lacked the sheer overall team talent necessary to compete.

It is impossibly hard to find high level talent strictly outside the first round of a draft. Having a franchise QB is great, but there's a good chance you never win a Superbowl with him if you can't get him some higher quality to play with.

BeerBaron
12-28-2011, 10:37 AM
if you don't have a franchise qb, you will NOT win a super bowl. it doesn't matter how many 'pro bowl' players (did you mean all-pro?) you have. further, those mid round guys? that's how you build your team. yes, you may need a stud or three. yes, you need a top tier qb. but if you can't book in the middle rounds (see: new england), your team will suffer.

again, first round picks are MASSIVELY overrated. most teams draft poorly over the last decade in the first.

I wasn't saying that you don't need a QB, my point is that you need more than just the QB and without that load of picks required to get better players, you aren't doing anything with a franchise QB either.

You can try and bank on free agents and mid-rounders, but free agents will get too expensive after a while and like I said, you're extremely unlikely to find top level much beyond the first or maybe 2nd round.

Trading EVERYTHING for a franchise QB throws that balance off.

Shane P. Hallam
12-28-2011, 10:38 AM
If I was a team like the Seattle Seahawks, I'd def. give up 6 first rounders for Aaron Rodgers. Seahawks are building up just right and need that last QB piece to really become a dangerous team.

AntoinCD
12-28-2011, 10:39 AM
If you have 2 or 3 elite players in your team(particularly if one is at QB) then you can definitely fill out the rest of the roster with good and average starters. Sure it's great to have 7 or 8 top players at their position but only one or two teams will ever have that.

If Cleveland made the trade I suggested they would have Aaron Rodgers, Joe Thomas, Joe Haden and Alex Mack. That is a very good, young nucleus of elite players. If they could draft well in the mid rounds and bring in a few FAs(easier to do with a guy like Rodgers at QB) then they could challenge. It doesn't matter how many Phil Taylor's etc they draft in the first round, they ain't going anywhere soon without a good QB

jsagan77
12-28-2011, 10:40 AM
Well there are more ways than hitting on first round picks to win playoff games like free agency and drafting well in the later rounds... Not every player needs to be a pro bowler, just good enough to play at a reasonably high level. The goal is getting to the tournament and an elite QB can do that for a team annually . After you get into the tournament the level of play is so high that it's basically a crap shoot who wins because teams play above their ability.

The perspective I'm looking at is from a Skins fan perspective. Watching teams with Elite QB play get to the play offs every single year despite bad drafting and hardly any FA acquisitions drives me insane because we haven't drafted one since Sammy Baugh and despite trading away draft picks like they are baseball cards, have drafted relatively well...

And the Colts have won just one Superbowl with a top 5-10 all time great QB despite making the playoffs every year for a decade, and were one-and-done more years than not in that stretch.

And the Patriots now...ask any Patriot fan, Brady IS the reason they are able to do what they do. I'm sure they'd love to have actually hit on some guys, but instead, they've had two straight one-and-done playoff seasons and right now have the worst defense in football.

BF51 said one time in an argument that outside of the first round, there's maybe a 5-10% of chance of finding a pro bowler. I went to look it up to try and disprove him and....he's right. You can still find a few in the 2nd or even 3rd round, but in any given round of any given year, you might only find 1-2 guys who ever even went to one pro-bowl. If that. His 5-10% is spot on.

Teams that regularly "hit" on guys outside the first round aren't exactly striking it rich with top NFL players. "Hitting" on a 5th round pick might just mean finding an adequate starter at that guy's position.

If you want to see what happens to a team with years of first round pick atrophy, look at the Buffalo Bills. They did a great job of finding guys off of scrap heaps and in later rounds or even undrafted, like Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, and Stevie Johnson, but soooo many of their first round picks were worthless or have left the team so that they lacked the sheer overall team talent necessary to compete.

It is impossibly hard to find high level talent strictly outside the first round of a draft. Having a franchise QB is great, but there's a good chance you never win a Superbowl with him if you can't get him some higher quality to play with.

PoopSandwich
12-28-2011, 11:38 AM
If I was a team like the Seattle Seahawks, I'd def. give up 6 first rounders for Aaron Rodgers. Seahawks are building up just right and need that last QB piece to really become a dangerous team.

In which case they would have to be active in free agency every single year.

Saints-Tigers
12-28-2011, 11:46 AM
I would give up a LOT. Since Brees has been here, our first rounders have been:

Bush
Meachem
Ellis
Malcolm Jenkins
Patrick Robinson
Cameron Jordan/Mark Ingram

You're telling me you wouldn't trade all of those guys for Brees? We're number 1 on offense yearly, and our first rounders have done muchthis year to contribute to that, so "surrounding him with weapons" is still VERY possible.

If you trust your scouting, you can make it work around a great QB. If you don't trust your scouting, you'll blow the picks anyway.

Actually, look at all of the big name QBs, and then look at their first rounders for the last 6 seasons, and see how much they've REALLY done to make the guy look elite.

You need talent, but the difference between first rounders(especially picks that aren't top 5-10) and the rest has probably become overstated.

Our best contributors are a 3rd round, project TE, a 7th round receiver, a free agent pick up RB(4th rounder), two undrafted RBs, and an undrafted 5'9 receiver.

Even our linemen are, in order, a 4th rounder, a 5th rounder, an undrafted, a 4th rounder, and a 7th rounder.

Get your QB... fill in the blanks later.

AntoinCD
12-28-2011, 11:50 AM
In which case they would have to be active in free agency every single year.

There are more rounds in the draft than the first round.

Six first round picks equals six players from the first round. Say even if the Seahawks hit on 4 of those guys that's 4 players in 6 years. If they choose sensibly in free agency they can more than make up for that plus have an elite QB.

Even if you say they will be good at drafting in the first round it's hard not to go for the elite QB.

New England's last 6 first round picks are Nate Solder, Devin McCourty, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Merriweather, Laurence Maroney and Logan Mankins. This is a pretty good list by standards in the NFL. Yet you would struggle to find anyone in their right mind who wouldn't take Tom Brady over these guys and he's 34. You offer Aaron Rodgers who is in his 20s and you would be verging on ******** if you didn't take it.

wogitalia
12-28-2011, 11:51 AM
I would happily trade every single player that we have on offense right now and the entire draft for the next two years to get Rodgers to the Vikes. Yes that includes Peterson(even before his knee injury for perspective).

I don't buy that you need an elite QB to win a SB but I most certainly do believe that they give you a better chance and a far bigger margin of error.

I say that as a team that probably only has 4 starters on its defense that should be starting on an NFL team as well, so it's not like we are an elite defense being held back by an inept offense.

I think the evidence is pretty strong to support this type of thing as well. Saints, Colts, Patriots, Steelers and Packers are the teams that have elite QBs(imo) and have for the past few years. Have a look at their offenses, they have built their teams around an elite QB but they haven't done it with first round picks.

I believe Mankins is the Pats only starter that was acquired with a first round pick. I can't think of any Packers that were first rounders other than Bulaga. Think Pouncey is the Steelers only 1st rounder. Colts have Wayne and Castonzo. Don't think the Saints have any?

Quite simply if you have an elite QB you can build an elite offense around them with FAs and later round guys, every elite offense in the NFL has proven this over the past 5 years and as such I think giving up a lot for that QB is worthwhile.

Difference though in giving it up for Rodgers compared to a Luck who is a fantastic prospect but just doesn't have the runs on the board to trade that sort of thing.

I will add, I'd give up our entire offense just to have competent management as well as that is the only way you are going to do anything without an elite QB.

PS. I realise offering our entire offense is a pretty hollow offer...

AntoinCD
12-28-2011, 12:07 PM
I would happily trade every single player that we have on offense right now and the entire draft for the next two years to get Rodgers to the Vikes. Yes that includes Peterson(even before his knee injury for perspective).

I don't buy that you need an elite QB to win a SB but I most certainly do believe that they give you a better chance and a far bigger margin of error.

I say that as a team that probably only has 4 starters on its defense that should be starting on an NFL team as well, so it's not like we are an elite defense being held back by an inept offense.

I think the evidence is pretty strong to support this type of thing as well. Saints, Colts, Patriots, Steelers and Packers are the teams that have elite QBs(imo) and have for the past few years. Have a look at their offenses, they have built their teams around an elite QB but they haven't done it with first round picks.

I believe Mankins is the Pats only starter that was acquired with a first round pick. I can't think of any Packers that were first rounders other than Bulaga. Think Pouncey is the Steelers only 1st rounder. Colts have Wayne and Castonzo. Don't think the Saints have any?

Quite simply if you have an elite QB you can build an elite offense around them with FAs and later round guys, every elite offense in the NFL has proven this over the past 5 years and as such I think giving up a lot for that QB is worthwhile.

Difference though in giving it up for Rodgers compared to a Luck who is a fantastic prospect but just doesn't have the runs on the board to trade that sort of thing.

I will add, I'd give up our entire offense just to have competent management as well as that is the only way you are going to do anything without an elite QB.

PS. I realise offering our entire offense is a pretty hollow offer...

Yup and even he was the 32nd pick. Nate Solder played extensively this year as a first round pick but he wouldn't start if everyone was healthy.

At the start of the year

Matt Light-2nd round
Logan Mankins-1st round
Dan Koppen-4th round
Brian Waters-Undrafted
Sebastian Vollmer-2nd round
Tom Brady-6th round
BenJarvus Green-Ellis-Undrafted
Wes Welker-Undrafted
Deion Branch-2nd round
Rob Gronkowski-2nd round
Aaron Hernandez-4th round

Chad Ochocinco-2nd round
Taylor Price-3rd round
Matthew Slater-5th round

One of the most prolific offenses in history and one first rounder. But...hey...they have an elite QB

PoopSandwich
12-28-2011, 12:30 PM
just like 90% of the league that's missed on 90% of it's first round picks since 2000?

Yeah I know, I root for one of those teams that miss an absolute ton on first round picks, and it's difficult to make it up through free agency because those first rounders are obviously supposed to be the studs that you build a franchise around.

I would definitely be fine if I gave up the 32nd spot in the draft for 6 straight years though.

SchizophrenicBatman
12-28-2011, 03:37 PM
still overrating first round picks. let me know how many teams in the nfl have actually regularly hit on those first round players over, say, the last decade.

teams are made on mid-round drafting.

as a fan of one of the only teams that has, it is way overrated

our "first round hits" went a grand 2-14 last year with jimmy clausen

SchizophrenicBatman
12-28-2011, 03:45 PM
If I was a team without a QB, I would probably trade every first rounder I have from now until 2020 for Aaron Rodgers.

Nobody else, though. Brees is already 32. But go back to his free agency. If you knew you could get out of him what the Saints have, how much do you think that's worth?

And he's been throwing to mostly fungible talents. Colston is talented but was a 7th rounder. They got Jimmy Graham in the 3rd. Every team in the league has a guy like Lance Moore. Meachem is the only 1st rounder and he's not even good. They replaced Reggie Bush with a better version of him this year in free agency

Halsey
12-28-2011, 03:56 PM
For a franchise QB like Brees or Rodgers, I'd give up a first rounder for every year they play for my team.

Having a franchise QB and no first rounder>>>>>>>Not having a franchise QB.

Raiderz4Life
12-28-2011, 03:57 PM
I also root for a team that has screwed up its drafting.....culminated with JaMarcus Russell...*sigh*

DraftSavant
12-28-2011, 04:10 PM
I also root for a team that has screwed up its drafting.....culminated with JaMarcus Russell...*sigh*

Jacksonville:

Player, (Round), Year
Rob Johnson, (5) 1995
Jonathan Quinn, (3) 1998
David Garrad, (4), 2002
Byron Leftwich, (1), 2003
Blaine Gabbert, (1) 2011

That's just pitiful.

Although, Rob Johnson got flipped for a first rounder to Buffalo and that pick became Freddy T. So there's that.

Bob Sanders Dreadlock
12-28-2011, 05:11 PM
Yup and even he was the 32nd pick. Nate Solder played extensively this year as a first round pick but he wouldn't start if everyone was healthy.

At the start of the year

Matt Light-2nd round
Logan Mankins-1st round
Dan Koppen-4th round
Brian Waters-Undrafted
Sebastian Vollmer-2nd round
Tom Brady-6th round
BenJarvus Green-Ellis-Undrafted
Wes Welker-Undrafted
Deion Branch-2nd round
Rob Gronkowski-2nd round
Aaron Hernandez-4th round

Chad Ochocinco-2nd round
Taylor Price-3rd round
Matthew Slater-5th round

One of the most prolific offenses in history and one first rounder. But...hey...they have an elite QB

Perhaps this is also an overall indictment of the leagues scouting ability.

descendency
12-28-2011, 07:32 PM
There is a significant drop off in most drafts around pick 5 and then pick 25.

So 6 late first round picks when most of them are after 2013 isn't as great as it sounds.

I imagine the GM that makes the trade will want more before 2013 though.

I think it will have to contain an elite player in the trade and I personally think Joe Thomas and Cleveland's first (and maybe Atlanta's too) makes the most sense. Then the team (like the Rams) could put together a solid OL and an elite WR (I'd trade down for Michael Floyd... but Blackmon works too)

Rosebud
12-29-2011, 02:36 AM
If we didn't have Eli? What the Bears gave up for Cutler, a mediocre starter, 2 firsts, a second and a third.

Da-Phins
12-29-2011, 01:40 PM
2 1sts
2 2nds
2 3rds
And throw in a couple of solids vets to seal the deal

Now is that too much?...Not to a Dolphins fan it isnt.

armageddon
12-29-2011, 01:51 PM
2 1sts
2 2nds
2 3rds
And throw in a couple of solids vets to seal the deal

Now is that too much?...Not to a Dolphins fan it isnt.



2 1sts plus Jake Long ?

ChiFan24
12-29-2011, 02:01 PM
If I were the 49ers I'd trade 6 first rounders for Aaron Rodgers in a heartbeat. At least 6 first rounders.