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stl705
01-12-2012, 11:44 AM
Right now, NFL draft fans have had a remarkable 2-year run on QBs this year and last year.

It's looking like there could be more than 4 franchise QBs in last year's draft, plus at least another 2 more this year with the "can't miss" prospects of Luck and Griffin. (Along with a few other decent prospects).

Obviously Cam Newton and Andy Dalton are already looking like they have a great future ahead of them, with good play in limited time from Christian Ponder and Jake Locker.

My point is that are we entering a short era of good QBs with very few busts? I'm willing to consider Gabbert a bust already, although he certainly has plenty of time to prove me wrong.

History of the draft has around half (1/3 at the very least) of 1st round QBs as busts or less than average. Last years class surprised me and a lot of people, as I don't think many fans thought it was such a great class. This class is considered by some to be one of the best classes of the decade, but it will surely be near impossible to match last years.

So, I'm wondering if either Luck or Griffin ends up being a bust? Personally, I don't think they will, as do almost everyone else. Luck would have been the best prospect last year, and Griffin would be right behind or tied with Cam Newton imo. Add Barkley and Wilson (a bit lower) next year and you've got a great run of QB prospects now.

I think it's possible both top QBs work out as there really hasn't been too many great QBs before last year (jury still out on Bradford and Freeman, and I think Sanchez is near his end this year or next with the Jets).

Sorry for the long rant, but here's my question... What are the chances one of these top two QBs bust? Both Griffin and Luck aren't showing the laziness of JaMarcus Russel, or the lack of ability like a Brady Quinn, but hindsight obviously trumps guessing games. The prospects are better prospects than Bradford, Freeman, or Sanchez ever were, so is it just an amazing run on QBs? Or will Luck fool us all and become the next Ryan Leaf?

PS: I know a lot of people like this draft class over most, if not all of the past decade; but I see it being too top heavy. I'm not sold on any QBs past Griffin and don't see any of the 2nd-3rd teir being quality starting QBs, except maybe Foles of Arizona.

Mitchell
01-12-2012, 12:15 PM
Andrew Luck won't bust. Aside from the athletic types, he's the best college quarterback I have ever seen.

RG3, I have some questions about... But I'm fairly confident that if a team works around him, rather than trying to change him.. He'll have a lot of success.

K Train
01-12-2012, 12:23 PM
i think RG3s success is going to be determined by where he goes....cleveland could be the kiss of death to his career

PoopSandwich
01-12-2012, 12:27 PM
i think RG3s success is going to be determined by where he goes....cleveland could be the kiss of death to his career

Based on what?

We have the best left tackle in the game, a good center/left guard, a good running back if we keep Hillis, another first round pick to draft one of the many wide receivers, a huge free agency class to bring some more talent in, one of the best pass defenses in the league.

Cleveland could be a 7 or 8 win team next year, QB was our biggest weakness and Heckertt already said he plans on loading this team up with playmakers this offseason... Not to mention we have the cap to do it.

Spectre
01-12-2012, 12:29 PM
Luck could be a "bust" just because of the preposterous hype behind him. If he ends up more Matt Ryan than Peyton Manning, the Colts will be kicking themselves for not taking the mother load of picks.

Griffin could easily be a bust just because he's going to have to transition to an NFL style offense.

I don't think either will, just saying that it's very possible with any prospect, even the safe ones.

rawdawg
01-12-2012, 01:07 PM
Luck could be a "bust" just because of the preposterous hype behind him. If he ends up more Matt Ryan than Peyton Manning, the Colts will be kicking themselves for not taking the mother load of picks.

Griffin could easily be a bust just because he's going to have to transition to an NFL style offense.

I don't think either will, just saying that it's very possible with any prospect, even the safe ones.

Cam Newton showed that the transition thing is overblown. I think the team needs to transition to Griffin if they want him to be a franchise QB for them. Even still, I think Griffin can be a legit no-gimmick, WCO QB in a couple years.

Complex
01-12-2012, 01:10 PM
Luck can't be a bust. He was sent down from the heavens to play football and dominate. Andrew Luck is the Spartacus of Football.

K Train
01-12-2012, 01:18 PM
Based on what?

We have the best left tackle in the game, a good center/left guard, a good running back if we keep Hillis, another first round pick to draft one of the many wide receivers, a huge free agency class to bring some more talent in, one of the best pass defenses in the league.

Cleveland could be a 7 or 8 win team next year, QB was our biggest weakness and Heckertt already said he plans on loading this team up with playmakers this offseason... Not to mention we have the cap to do it.

based on history i suppose...not saying he cant be good there, they have some good pieces but i havent seen a QB do well in cleveland since....ever

SuperPacker
01-12-2012, 02:09 PM
If a team is careful with Griffin and treats him a bit like the Panthers have with Newton i think he will be a star. If hes forced the make tons of reads and play in a pro style offense right away he could end up a bust.

Luck could bust if he doesnt live up to the hype but i dont see how he wont be a starting QB for a long time. Even if hes not Peyton Manning 2.0

bruschis4all
01-12-2012, 02:54 PM
QB's aren't busting because it's so freakin easy to play qb in the NFL right now. You can't hit em. Some refs don't let you breathe on them. Can't touch their receivers. Yet, those 6'4" 220lb receivers are allowed to push off routinely and were suction cups as gloves. Do I sound like a frustrated defensive guy?

SuperPacker
01-12-2012, 02:59 PM
QB's aren't busting because it's so freakin easy to play qb in the NFL right now. You can't hit em. Some refs don't let you breathe on them. Can't touch their receivers. Yet, those 6'4" 220lb receivers are allowed to push off routinely and were suction cups as gloves. Do I sound like a frustrated defensive guy?

Blaine Gabbert..

TACKLE
01-12-2012, 03:02 PM
QB's aren't busting because it's so freakin easy to play qb in the NFL right now. You can't hit em. Some refs don't let you breathe on them. Can't touch their receivers. Yet, those 6'4" 220lb receivers are allowed to push off routinely and were suction cups as gloves. Do I sound like a frustrated defensive guy?

You're right that in the new NFL young QB's aren't crashing and burning like they used to. However the bar has been raised and the expectations for QB's are higher than ever as they should be.

DeathbyStat
01-12-2012, 03:13 PM
If Luck busts and i mean completely and totally busts (meaning he is out of the league in three years, barring injury)....then It proves that this whole scouting thing is a complete and utter crap shoot. That mere mortals shouldn't even attempt to analyze on any rational level.

bruschis4all
01-12-2012, 03:13 PM
Blaine Gabbert..

Ha! There is an exception to every rule. Give him time though. Maybe he's one of those old school qb's who sucked their rookie year.

Mitchell
01-12-2012, 03:27 PM
Ha! There is an exception to every rule. Give him time though. Maybe he's one of those old school qb's who sucked their rookie year.

I wouldn't count on it haha

Babylon
01-12-2012, 03:39 PM
If a team is careful with Griffin and treats him a bit like the Panthers have with Newton i think he will be a star. If hes forced the make tons of reads and play in a pro style offense right away he could end up a bust.

Luck could bust if he doesnt live up to the hype but i dont see how he wont be a starting QB for a long time. Even if hes not Peyton Manning 2.0

I think on the low end Luck will be a Matt Ryan type. I'd reserve the bust label for guys like David Carr, Joey Harrinton and Akile Smith.

stl705
01-12-2012, 03:43 PM
I agree that both need to be with a good coach or they could be toast. I don't necessarily see a 3 year and done type of bust with Luck (actually I don't think he'll be a bust at all, but for arguments sake), but possibly a journeyman QB wpuld certainly be considered a bust considering the amount of value the Colts could get in return for the 1st pick.

I think we all forget that the last "can't miss QB" was Eli Manning, who before he won the Superbowl really struggled and could have been considered a near bust his first few seasons. The last "can't miss" QB prospects before that were his brother Peyton and Ryan Leaf haha. Although Luck is getting a lot more hype than any QB in history (new-age social media has a big part in this I believe), certainly no QB is immune to failing. Both these QBs are real smart kids and I think it can be a 04 type of draft with each of the top guys developing into franchise QBs, with this group a little higher potential to hit the superstar plateau of Brady/Brees/Manning/Rodgers.

I think the real crapshoot comes after these two. There will likely be at least 1 other QB in the first (Tannehill), and possibly another one or two in the 1st simply because of the nature of the position. This is where I think teams can get hurt if they reach for Tannehill in the top 15 or some other QB in the first.

Edit: As I talk about the "superstar" 4 quarterbacks, its really interesting that only 1 was considered a superstar QB prospect... Only Manning. Rodgers was almost the #1 pick he came out (I liked him more than Alex Smith), but he still wasn't the Elite prospect and was more in the mold of Sam Bradford.

SuperPacker
01-12-2012, 03:47 PM
I think on the low end Luck will be a Matt Ryan type. I'd reserve the bust label for guys like David Carr, Joey Harrinton and Akile Smith.

But if you think you're getting Peyton Manning but instead you get Matt Ryan it has to go down as a horrible pick!

SuperPacker
01-12-2012, 03:51 PM
I agree that both need to be with a good coach or they could be toast. I don't necessarily see a 3 year and done type of bust with Luck (actually I don't think he'll be a bust at all, but for arguments sake), but possibly a journeyman QB wpuld certainly be considered a bust considering the amount of value the Colts could get in return for the 1st pick.

I think we all forget that the last "can't miss QB" was Eli Manning, who before he won the Superbowl really struggled and could have been considered a near bust his first few seasons. The last "can't miss" QB prospects before that were his brother Peyton and Ryan Leaf haha. Although Luck is getting a lot more hype than any QB in history (new-age social media has a big part in this I believe), certainly no QB is immune to failing. Both these QBs are real smart kids and I think it can be a 04 type of draft with each of the top guys developing into franchise QBs, with this group a little higher potential to hit the superstar plateau of Brady/Brees/Manning/Rodgers.

I think the real crapshoot comes after these two. There will likely be at least 1 other QB in the first (Tannehill), and possibly another one or two in the 1st simply because of the nature of the position. This is where I think teams can get hurt if they reach for Tannehill in the top 15 or some other QB in the first.

Edit: As I talk about the "superstar" 4 quarterbacks, its really interesting that only 1 was considered a superstar QB prospect... Only Manning. Rodgers was almost the #1 pick he came out (I liked him more than Alex Smith), but he still wasn't the Elite prospect and was more in the mold of Sam Bradford.

And then you look at the names of QB's taken 1st and its just an average sight. Palmer, Manning, Ryan, Bradford etc... It shows that QB is a lot more than just physical tools. You have to be the hardest working player on the team.

stl705
01-12-2012, 04:07 PM
@Superpacker:

I agree, although noone can argue how smart these two top guys are. A degree from Stanford speaks for itself, and RG3 is rumored to be one of the smartest guys on the Baylor team. Both also handle themselves extremely well (especially RG3 because he's had a bit more air-time this past year).

I think that the smarts both these QBs exhibit will be what allows them to succeed at the next level. Some people may have argued how smart Cam Newton was, but the kid never said the wrong things, and I think that certainly shows a level of intelligence and maturity.

jrdrylie
01-12-2012, 04:21 PM
Blaine Gabbert..

Gabbert's biggest weakness is he is scared of being hit. You watch him and if there is even the slightest chance that the pocket could possibly get clogged within the next five seconds, he pisses himself and curls up into the fetal position. The funny thing is, he shouldn't be afraid of being hit because defenders aren't allowed to hit QBs.

bornnraisedwhodat
01-12-2012, 04:24 PM
I dont think either would bust. Luck will have a Matt Ryan esque type of first few years in the league, which is solid, but people will scrutinize him to death and wonder why he hasnt won a SB yet.

Griffins will be a guy who I think will put up great stats, but the team he will play for will suck and he wont have a good winning record.

brat316
01-12-2012, 04:27 PM
Hiesman trophy winners are proven to bust. But Tebow looking like he is going to break it. Only reason I didn't want Griffin to win it.

SuperPacker
01-12-2012, 04:34 PM
Griffins will be a guy who I think will put up great stats, but the team he will play for will suck and he wont have a good winning record.

You're just saying that because the same thing has happened with Cam Newton. Just cus they are both black athletic quarterbacks it dont mean their careers will take the same path.

dannyz
01-12-2012, 05:55 PM
@Superpacker:

I agree, although noone can argue how smart these two top guys are. A degree from Stanford speaks for itself, and RG3 is rumored to be one of the smartest guys on the Baylor team. Both also handle themselves extremely well (especially RG3 because he's had a bit more air-time this past year).

I think that the smarts both these QBs exhibit will be what allows them to succeed at the next level. Some people may have argued how smart Cam Newton was, but the kid never said the wrong things, and I think that certainly shows a level of intelligence and maturity.

I think this is the Reason both QB's will be Great. You can measure the Height,Weight,Arm Strength but you can never know how a guy will do Mentally or if they have the Drive and Work Ethics to be Great. I think this is what Separates them from any QB Bust.

49erNation85
01-12-2012, 06:30 PM
It all depends on how their new team plans to play them and what type of role they are given the first year on the team etc. If you give Griffin the starting job he may end up hurting his learning skill maybe not.It is hard to say really on Luck from being at Stanford and being Pro ready offense but Griffin was as well. Griffin is just a run style QB.If you let Griffin learn the offense for a full year or given a real tough off season both QB s could be in fun season of stats wise . IMO both will not having winning years their first season. Just because each team where they might end up have so holes.If Griffin lands in Seattle some how he may have a huge impact there all they need is a QB too. But again it all depends on how each player handles the learning curve and mental issues of a new offense and crappy teams.

Iamcanadian
01-13-2012, 10:16 AM
I don't know why people go on about sitting a QB for a season, it has become so rare that projecting it is a waste of time. The best a rookie QB taken in round 1 can expect, is to sit for 8 games before getting a starting call in game 9 unless you are stuck behind a solid NFL veteran starting QB.

Luck may have to sit if Peyton is healthy and the Colts retain him, otherwise he starts from day 1.

RG111 will very likely start from day 1 also. He is a very smat kid who will pick up the pro game pretty quickly. I see no way he isn't starting right away and being fairly successful out of the gate although no rookie QB produces a lot of wins unless he has a solid team behind him.

the_dark_knight
01-13-2012, 11:01 AM
I think what we're seeing right now isn't just that the defense is having to play soft, and the WRs are able to abuse the corners, I think more of what we're seeing is the natural evolution of the sport.

Yes, the rules are in place for offense to win, but doesn't mean that defenses can't shut them down, just ask San Fran. It's about all the best athletes are now coming to football. The popularity of the sport is immense, on an entirely new level than any sport has ever seen. So all the top athletes, all these guys who 20 years ago would have chosen to give being a pitcher or shortstop a shot have swapped to wanting to be the darling QB.

Very few of the best athletes in the US are growing up playing baseball or basketball, I mean heck, look at Lebron, he's a little tall for the NFL, but other than that he's built to play football. Many of the WRs in the NFL if they had dedicated their craft to the NBA would have been able to see success there as well. But Lebron is the exception, not the rule. So, I think we're just seeing that the top players at the position are being scouted and watched and coached up from such a young age that it's just a different era.

Elite athletes don't want to be Corners anymore, or RBs. They want to be the guy chuckin it and gettin all the ladies. Even guys as small as 5'10 have a role model at QB, despite the fact that the 'idea' is the 6'5" guy. No matter the shape or size you can play QB, so given the ruleset, and the fact that some incredible athletes are now dedicating themselves to this passing attack from such a young age, we're seeing the natural progression.

That being said, I think both of these guys will be capable of being big time in the NFL. I think Luck falls short on arm strength and it keeps him out of the 'elite' category at the next level, but he's going to be a guy in the Matt Ryan mold where he's on the doorstep, but I think the difference there is Matt Ryan has the tools to kick the door in in the not so distant future, where as Luck is going to be on the outside looking in, although I expect MASSIVE jersey sales for the guy. I mean his name is Luck, who wouldn't want that jersey, it's perfect. Luck + Indy's Horseshoe logo, I mean you can't make this stuff up.

When it comes to RGIII I think we're seeing Cam Newton 2.0. I think Cam is good, but I think RGIII will surpass him, maybe not in stats, but I think he's going to come in, and win games from the start. I also think that he's going to be a far superior player in a few years. Cam relies on his athletic ability and size, where as RGIII has the mind for the game to go with that. I think that's what's going to set him apart, and I think that's what's going to make him a massive star in the NFL.

Iamcanadian
01-13-2012, 11:23 AM
I think what we're seeing right now isn't just that the defense is having to play soft, and the WRs are able to abuse the corners, I think more of what we're seeing is the natural evolution of the sport.

Yes, the rules are in place for offense to win, but doesn't mean that defenses can't shut them down, just ask San Fran. It's about all the best athletes are now coming to football. The popularity of the sport is immense, on an entirely new level than any sport has ever seen. So all the top athletes, all these guys who 20 years ago would have chosen to give being a pitcher or shortstop a shot have swapped to wanting to be the darling QB.

Very few of the best athletes in the US are growing up playing baseball or basketball, I mean heck, look at Lebron, he's a little tall for the NFL, but other than that he's built to play football. Many of the WRs in the NFL if they had dedicated their craft to the NBA would have been able to see success there as well. But Lebron is the exception, not the rule. So, I think we're just seeing that the top players at the position are being scouted and watched and coached up from such a young age that it's just a different era.

Elite athletes don't want to be Corners anymore, or RBs. They want to be the guy chuckin it and gettin all the ladies. Even guys as small as 5'10 have a role model at QB, despite the fact that the 'idea' is the 6'5" guy. No matter the shape or size you can play QB, so given the ruleset, and the fact that some incredible athletes are now dedicating themselves to this passing attack from such a young age, we're seeing the natural progression.

That being said, I think both of these guys will be capable of being big time in the NFL. I think Luck falls short on arm strength and it keeps him out of the 'elite' category at the next level, but he's going to be a guy in the Matt Ryan mold where he's on the doorstep, but I think the difference there is Matt Ryan has the tools to kick the door in in the not so distant future, where as Luck is going to be on the outside looking in, although I expect MASSIVE jersey sales for the guy. I mean his name is Luck, who wouldn't want that jersey, it's perfect. Luck + Indy's Horseshoe logo, I mean you can't make this stuff up.

When it comes to RGIII I think we're seeing Cam Newton 2.0. I think Cam is good, but I think RGIII will surpass him, maybe not in stats, but I think he's going to come in, and win games from the start. I also think that he's going to be a far superior player in a few years. Cam relies on his athletic ability and size, where as RGIII has the mind for the game to go with that. I think that's what's going to set him apart, and I think that's what's going to make him a massive star in the NFL.

While I agree to a lot of what you have to say, I think the new CBA will have a tremendous affect of which athletes choose football. The rookie salary cap is going to drive elite athletes out of the sport and into Baseball and Basketball. With the difference in pay and the injury factor, you could see a real dropoff in athletes who chose football at every level.

the_dark_knight
01-13-2012, 12:25 PM
While I agree to a lot of what you have to say, I think the new CBA will have a tremendous affect of which athletes choose football. The rookie salary cap is going to drive elite athletes out of the sport and into Baseball and Basketball. With the difference in pay and the injury factor, you could see a real dropoff in athletes who chose football at every level.

Oh I'm not saying moving forward it's going to remain this way, I just think that's where we are right now. We've already seen a guy like Jeff Samahwerwenowitn4uoihyuiahaja pick baseball because of the fully guaranteed contracts. I think that will continue to happen, the only thing I can't compensate for is the passion.

The only sports that rival the passion of football is soccer which may 1 up it, and then college basketball. So, I'm not going to say that we won't see more, I was just talking about what I see right now, and for the near future.

Heisman
01-13-2012, 01:48 PM
I like all of RG3's skills, but the guy appears to be rail thin. Since when did having an NFL body not matter anymore for prospects? People call Griffin "the future prototype" for college football QB's. Really? We want lanky sprinters?

He can put on some weight in the pros, but I think a team that drafts him won't want to mess with his world-class speed. He's thinner than Michael Vick, who gets hurt every other week. Again i love everything Griffin can do on the football field but I wouldn't be surprised if he is drafted and becomes the QB version of Jahvid Best.

the_dark_knight
01-13-2012, 03:37 PM
Michael Vick now, or Michael Vick in Atlanta when he was 6' 195?

Cause I think RGIII has the frame to put on a little weight, and it's not all about him running and taking hits, the kid is smart, and athletic, he knows how to avoid big hits (if he can see them coming, no cure for a blindside smackdown from Jared Allen!) so I think his slight frame will not be a big factor. I agree though he is a bit thin and will have to bulk up, I disagree that they're going to worry about him losing speed. Gaining weight and bulk doesn't always cost you speed if you do it the right way.

Give him a couple seasons to pack on 25 pounds and he might lose a half a step or so, but he's still going to be in the upper echelon of speed on the field, and one of the top 3 in terms of QB mobility and speed.

Keep in mind this is coming from a guy who bought into RGIII before last season started, so I've been waiting for him to go pro for 2 years.

SRK85
01-13-2012, 03:47 PM
I wouldn't trust RG3 to lead an offense his rookie season. He is no Cam Newton. He needs to be drafted into a team that will have patience to let him develop. Let RG3 sit on the bench for a year. As for Luck he can start right away.

SchizophrenicBatman
01-13-2012, 06:05 PM
I think people who expect other QBs to come in and replicate Cam Newton's success this past season are going to be wildly disappointed

I don't even think Cam can replicate this season next year

Heisman
01-13-2012, 10:02 PM
Michael Vick now, or Michael Vick in Atlanta when he was 6' 195?

Cause I think RGIII has the frame to put on a little weight, and it's not all about him running and taking hits, the kid is smart, and athletic, he knows how to avoid big hits (if he can see them coming, no cure for a blindside smackdown from Jared Allen!) so I think his slight frame will not be a big factor. I agree though he is a bit thin and will have to bulk up, I disagree that they're going to worry about him losing speed. Gaining weight and bulk doesn't always cost you speed if you do it the right way.

Give him a couple seasons to pack on 25 pounds and he might lose a half a step or so, but he's still going to be in the upper echelon of speed on the field, and one of the top 3 in terms of QB mobility and speed.

Keep in mind this is coming from a guy who bought into RGIII before last season started, so I've been waiting for him to go pro for 2 years.

The Michael Vick now (he's still getting hurt...)

Running QB's just tend to get injured more, and it amazes me how little people care about how thin he is. He's probably worth the risk but damn he looks frail.

stl705
01-14-2012, 12:17 AM
The thing that impressed me most about RG3 in the bowl game was his accuracy, and keeping his eyes downfield.

It seemed like he is more of a scramble to find the open guy downfield, than the scramble and pick up 6 or 7 yards type of guy. I'm not saying he can't run because obviously he can, and did. But I don't see the Vick or Vince Young comparisons where he tucks it and runs. I like how he stays behind the line of scrimmage and keeps looking for the open men downfield when he takes off.

He has the ability to tuck it and get first downs, but I think he will realize that he could get hurt by doing this often, and I don't beleive he will be a scrambling qb that gets hurt often.

Also, to the guy talking about the Luck/indy horseshoe... that's awesome, I never realized that until you said something. Too bad he didn't go to Notre Dame :( lol.

armageddon
01-14-2012, 02:32 PM
If Luck or RG3 played on the 2011 Rams, everybody would be calling them busts. The right situation is going to be key for them.