PDA

View Full Version : Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma St.


Dan_Steele
01-28-2012, 01:28 PM
Top 40 pick?

Weeden has all the tools you look for in a incoming QB. He has the size, a surplus of arm strength and he is a proven winner at the college level. This week at the Senior Bowl he showed exemplary coachability, adjusted to taking snaps from under center extremely well and looked like the best of the 6 QB's invited, by far. He is a great leader, student of the game, and has the ability to make all of the throws in an NFL playbook.

On ability alone he is a Top-20 selection. The knock on him is obviously his age. At 28 he is already 6 years older than Luck, RG3, and almost every other player in this draft. Over a full contract's length too old. My fear is that team's will scare away from him, fearing his body will start to break down after just a few years. If a team can come to terms that Weeden will have nothing more than a 5-8 year career then they will draft a player that I can see winning immediately.

Weeden will have to fend off obvious comparisons to former Heisman Trophy winner; Chris Weinke, who played 7 years in the league as a spot starter and backup on the Panthers and 49ers. Weeden should go much higher than Weinke (Round 4, Pick 106), possessing much more sophisticated arm strength and athleticism. He is going to have to make a team fall for him. Unfortunately, many GM's may be afraid to touch him. It is almost a Catch-22 with Weeden. Best case scenario he completely outplays his pay, makes the Pro Bowl and leads the his team to the playoffs and maybe even the Super Bowl. And lets say he does all of this by his fourth season, when he is at the age of 32 (Tannehill at Cosuins will be 26 and 27 respectively at this same time). His GM will have to face the decision of agreeing to pay top-teir money to a quarterback north of 30, which is always incredibly risky, just ask Jim Irsay.

I think Weeden is a gifted player who should have never went to play baseball, if he was 23 he would be in the Top-15 conversation. Age, an uncoachable, unchangeable characteristic is what is going to hurt him come April.

Thoughts? Projections?

SuperPacker
01-28-2012, 01:35 PM
If i was a team needing a quarterback to come in a start straight away, i'd be willing to take him the 2nd round.

Lil Quip
01-28-2012, 01:56 PM
Dalton is 24
Freeman is 24
Flacco is 27
Flynn is 26
Newton is 22
Ryan is 26
Smith is 27
Stafford is 23

It sucks for him, but age is a factor. Chris Weinke was in a similar situation and was a fourth rounder.

It really depends on if teams think the time in baseball was basically four years off from the rigors of football or four years of age on his arm. A ten year career would put it from 28 to 38. He still will be a rookie with growing pains. Not sure a team is willing to spend a second on a guy who might hit his prime around his thirtieth birthday.

However, I see someone giving him a mid round flier, where he could have a nice career as a backup and could develop as a starter with little risk.

Iamcanadian
01-28-2012, 09:05 PM
He'll be 29 when the season starts next year so I have to believe that round 1 or 2 is out of the question.

Yes, I believe if he were 21, he'd be in consideration as a 1st rounder but at 29, round 2 seems far fetched to me. Maybe round 3, considering that it will likely take 3 or 4 years before he can be a solid NFL starter.

fenikz
01-28-2012, 09:11 PM
If he was 21 he would be a top 20 pick and I can't see him falling out of the 2nd round

Walton was drafted last year at 27 in the 2nd and he is a OG

Shane P. Hallam
01-28-2012, 09:14 PM
If he was 21 he would be a top 20 pick and I can't see him falling out of the 2nd round

Walton was drafted last year at 27 in the 2nd and he is a OG

You mean Watkins in the first?

mightytitan9
01-28-2012, 09:56 PM
The biggest difference is Watkins is an OG and they can generally contribute right away, with Weeden I think a team would likely want to sit him a year or two. That would make him a 30 year old before you can really even see what he can do. I think he'll end up being a 2-3 round guy. Heck, if it were me and I was the Jets or Dolphins, I'd try to get Peyton and draft this guy in the 3rd to sit.

fenikz
01-28-2012, 09:58 PM
You mean Watkins in the first?

Clearly what I said

Grizzlegom
01-28-2012, 09:58 PM
I'd take Weeden top 20 personally. I think he's the most NFL-ready QB not named Luck.

mightytitan9
01-28-2012, 10:01 PM
I still think RG3 is better than Weeden. I couldn't warrant taking him high because of his age, and if you're a bad team you likely need more than a QB. If you're a good team, why would you draft a QB high if you have one? Maybe take one 2nd round if you're guys getting up in age or something but that's it.

vidae
01-28-2012, 10:37 PM
I really don't see what the rest of you see in Weeden and when you factor in his age I wouldn't draft him before the 4th or 5th round.

ElectricEye
01-28-2012, 11:21 PM
I really don't see what the rest of you see in Weeden and when you factor in his age I wouldn't draft him before the 4th or 5th round.

That's where I'm at too. Quarterbacks always get pushed up, but I'm just not a big Weeden guy. Didn't wow me in the practices and certainly not in the game either. The medical on him is questionable as well, so there's that to consider too.

Finsfan79
01-29-2012, 01:10 AM
I wouldnt mind him in the third for miami

ChiFan24
01-29-2012, 03:08 AM
I must be completely missing what sets him apart from a third round guy like Kirk Cousins, and that's before you factor in age.

Big Bird
01-29-2012, 03:40 AM
The tough thing is not only that Weeden is older, but how much his arm has been used. It's not like this guy was sitting around on a couch, resting his body. He pitched over 374 innings in 5 seasons, and that doesn't even factor how much Weeden was using it in just training and such.

It's tricky. It's certainly tough to separate Weinke and Weeden. Similar age. Weinke was a bit bigger and came from a more pro-style system. Weeden has is a better thrower but has more wear on his arm. Weinke also suffered a major neck injury when he was a sophomore at Florida State, which may have scared some teams off as well.

Depending on the Combine, I think a team like the Jets could really use him in the 2nd.

ChiFan24
01-29-2012, 03:56 AM
Why did I think Weeden was a third baseman? Whatever, I like him even less now.

Matthew Jones
01-29-2012, 08:47 AM
Say hello to 2012's John Beck, the last guy who impressed against competition up to ten years younger than him. Weeden is getting overhyped; he's a 28 year-old man who was running up scores against teenagers with the top receiving option in the draft.

Canadian_draft_fan
01-29-2012, 09:01 AM
Say hello to 2012's John Beck, the last guy who impressed against competition up to ten years younger than him. Weeden is getting overhyped; he's a 28 year-old man who was running up scores against teenagers with the top receiving option in the draft.
Completely agree - no higher than a 5th rounder on him.

1crazyredskinsfan
01-29-2012, 09:22 AM
I Think a remote controlled pogo stick would be a better qb than grossman and beck combined! i have been a redskins fan over 40 years,these are the worst two qbs that the skins have had that entire time! Weeden would be a huge improvement over them!

FUNBUNCHER
01-29-2012, 09:32 AM
Never considered for some reason the amount of wear and tear on his arm from being a baseball pitcher.

He's going to hit that wall sooner than later.

Matthew Jones
01-29-2012, 09:44 AM
Velocity on his throws is lacking as well.

SchizophrenicBatman
01-29-2012, 10:26 AM
I really don't see what the rest of you see in Weeden and when you factor in his age I wouldn't draft him before the 4th or 5th round.

I don't get it either. He doesn't impress me all that much

And yea, you have to consider he blew out his arm playing baseball. Right now it doesn't effect his football throwing motion but who knows how long that will last?

BeerBaron
01-29-2012, 11:03 AM
That's where I'm at too. Quarterbacks always get pushed up, but I'm just not a big Weeden guy. Didn't wow me in the practices and certainly not in the game either. The medical on him is questionable as well, so there's that to consider too.

Precisely. He's not even that good to begin with. Top 40 pick...pfft. Even if he was 23 I wouldn't take him that high. Much less so for a guy who'll be 32 before his rookie contract expires.

Babylon
01-29-2012, 11:16 AM
That's where I'm at too. Quarterbacks always get pushed up, but I'm just not a big Weeden guy. Didn't wow me in the practices and certainly not in the game either. The medical on him is questionable as well, so there's that to consider too.

Me three. He's a guy who would look very ordinary without Justin Blackmon, comes from a conferance where numbers mean very little and he's old. I'm probably thinking 5th round or so like Chris Weinke but wouldnt be shocked if it were later.

SolidGold
01-29-2012, 12:04 PM
Me three. He's a guy who would look very ordinary without Justin Blackmon, comes from a conference where numbers mean very little and he's old. I'm probably thinking 5th round or so like Chris Weinke but wouldnt be shocked if it were later.

Besides being older and replacing Blackmon with Kendall Wright one could make the same argument against Griffin. I do think Weeden helped himself but still think he is a 4th/5th round guy because of his age. I would rather spend a 4th round pick on Weeden than use a top 5 pick on Griffin though.

BeerBaron
01-29-2012, 12:07 PM
That's a poor comparison. Watching him play, I think Griffin pretty clearly has that "it" factor you want in your franchise QB.

Weeden doesn't. When Ok St had the inside track for the national championship game, he played an awful game against Iowa State. His passes were all over the place and he played a huge part in costing his team the game.

Add in the fact that he'll be 32 by the time his rookie contract expires and his physical tools aren't really that impressive, I pass on him without hesitation.

Big Bird
01-29-2012, 12:20 PM
I don't get it either. He doesn't impress me all that much

And yea, you have to consider he blew out his arm playing baseball. Right now it doesn't effect his football throwing motion but who knows how long that will last?
Hold on a second, where have you read or heard anything about Weeden blowing his arm out? Weeden did suffer tendinitis in his right rotator cuff, which is still a concern in itself, but that didn't even require surgery.

BeerBaron
01-29-2012, 12:26 PM
I can't find the specifics but I recall them saying a game that he couldn't throw a baseball anymore due to pain. It supposedly doesn't affect his football throwing motion but combine all the other negatives with the guy, why take a chance?

mightytitan9
01-29-2012, 12:42 PM
My biggest problem is when pressured he threw a lot of INT's. I watched a ton of OSU games this year and most the time he wasn't pressured, when he was is when he did his turnovers. I think he'd be a 1st-2nd if he were younger, and I'm sure someone will take him early, but I wouldn't touch him til the 3rd or 4th

SchizophrenicBatman
01-29-2012, 03:19 PM
I can't find the specifics but I recall them saying a game that he couldn't throw a baseball anymore due to pain. It supposedly doesn't affect his football throwing motion but combine all the other negatives with the guy, why take a chance?

Yea, this is what I was referring to. Didn't really research what was wrong so that's my bad.

And I agree with Babylon. If Weeden played for Texas Tech instead of OK State would people be hyping him? He starts in shotgun then takes another 5 to 7 step drop every snap. The amount of distance that opens up on the field is ridiculous. Plus it compensates for his rather mediocre mobility. AND he had Blackmon on top of that.

onejayhawk
01-29-2012, 06:13 PM
That's a poor comparison. Watching him play, I think Griffin pretty clearly has that "it" factor you want in your franchise QB.

Weeden doesn't. When Ok St had the inside track for the national championship game, he played an awful game against Iowa State. His passes were all over the place and he played a huge part in costing his team the game.

Add in the fact that he'll be 32 by the time his rookie contract expires and his physical tools aren't really that impressive, I pass on him without hesitation.

I live in Waco, so I saw a lot of RG III. Weeden has as much of "it" as he does. There is nothing he lacks to be a to 5 pick, except 5 years. Since career backups and journeymen, of the same age, command a 2nd round pick, I think that is the least you can start with.

J

BeerBaron
01-29-2012, 06:14 PM
I live in Waco, so I saw a lot of RG III. Weeden has as much of "it" as he does. There is nothing he lacks to be a to 5 pick, except 5 years. Since career backups and journeymen, of the same age, command a 2nd round pick, I think that is the least you can start with.

J

Weeden has about as much of the "it" factor as Blaine Gabbert.

A Perfect Score
01-29-2012, 06:17 PM
Wouldnt touch him before the 4th, myself. Value will get pushed up because of the need at the QB position and his success in college, but I'll take Kirk Cousins in the 5th over Weeden in the 2nd any day of the week.

BeerBaron
01-29-2012, 06:19 PM
Wouldnt touch him before the 4th, myself. Value will get pushed up because of the need at the QB position and his success in college, but I'll take Kirk Cousins in the 5th over Weeden in the 2nd any day of the week.

The problem is that you probably couldn't get Cousins in the 5th.

It's starting to look like if you want a QB in this day and age, you better be prepared to overdraft him by at least 2 rounds.

P-L
01-29-2012, 08:13 PM
I do think Brandon Weeden is more NFL-ready than most quarterbacks coming out of college, but I don't see enough upside to draft him in the first two rounds. His velocity already isn't great and I'm not sure his arm will be able to sustain its current level into his mid-thirties considering his stint in professional baseball. Weeden is a guy who will be exiting his prime by the time he is fully acclimated to the NFL.

dannyz
01-29-2012, 09:24 PM
I think he might have some potential as a Starting NFL QB but he might have a good 3 maybe 4 years in him and I would not Draft him and give him the money when he will only be around for a few years.

bornnraisedwhodat
01-30-2012, 01:54 PM
I think if your a team that already has a solid defense and some weapons on offense, and feel your just a QB away why not?

I think he would be great competition for Mark Sanchez. Jets could probably get him in the 3rd or 4th round. At worst he lights a fire under Sanchez and gets him performing, at best he comes out and peforms at a high level.

jCut
01-31-2012, 01:08 AM
All I've heard is positive reviews on Weeden since the Senior Bowl, yet this thread shows that he is still not getting the respect he deserves. Time will tell, but I'm buying in. Weeden to Denver please.

ChiFan24
01-31-2012, 02:49 AM
I don't think he'll be drafted. There's a bold prediction for you Weeden lovers.

BeerBaron
01-31-2012, 05:54 AM
All I've heard is positive reviews on Weeden since the Senior Bowl, yet this thread shows that he is still not getting the respect he deserves. Time will tell, but I'm buying in. Weeden to Denver please.

Unlike most people, apparently, I don't let the one offseason before the draft drastically affect my views on a player who I just spent years watching actually playing the game.

There's very little special about Weeden, he does not have "it", and he's old. I'll pass.

Also, I'm liking that undrafted prediction, ha. I'm not quite that bold though.

Caulibflower
01-31-2012, 07:04 AM
Weeden's getting hyped because of his age.

BeerBaron
01-31-2012, 07:08 AM
Weeden's getting hyped because of his age.

People trying to be football hipsters apparently.

"Well I like Brandon Weeden even though he's old."

Matthew Jones
01-31-2012, 08:48 AM
Here's where the top QBs could go:

Round 1

Andrew Luck, Stanford*

Robert Griffin, Baylor*

Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

Seems like he'll end up going in the first round due to positional need.

Round 2

Kirk Cousins, Michigan St.

Lifted his stock above Nick Foles with a strong performance in Mobile.

Nick Foles, Arizona

Round 3

Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma St.

Round 4

Brock Osweiler, Arizona St.*

Will be overdrafted because of his physical tools, maybe even more than this.

Round 5

B.J. Coleman, Chattanooga
Chandler Harnish, Northern Illinois

Round 6

Ryan Lindley, San Diego St.
Russell Wilson, Wisconsin

Round 7

Kellen Moore, Boise St.
Darron Thomas, Oregon

Shane P. Hallam
01-31-2012, 08:52 AM
I do think Keenum will get drafted too.

Matthew Jones
01-31-2012, 08:56 AM
I do think Keenum will get drafted too.

It's possible that Keenum gets picked but I wanted to stick as close to the average of 12 QBs drafted per season (there are 13 listed there) as possible. Is it worth spending a draft pick on a third-string (practice squad) QB with no upside when quality special teams players with a chance of actually seeing the field will be available?

BeerBaron
01-31-2012, 08:59 AM
I would gladly, gladly take Coleman in the 5th or Lindley in the 6th over anyone not named Luck or Griffin where you have them listed.

Oh, and Osweiler in the 4th. Though I think we both know he's actually going much higher than that.

Matthew Jones
01-31-2012, 09:07 AM
I would gladly, gladly take Coleman in the 5th or Lindley in the 6th over anyone not named Luck or Griffin where you have them listed.

Oh, and Osweiler in the 4th. Though I think we both know he's actually going much higher than that.

Coleman is one of my sleepers because his footwork, release, and delivery are all pretty strong at this point. Lindley has a rifle and the height/bulk but his footwork is among the worst I've ever seen. He makes Landry Jones look like Michael Jackson.

I pity the fool that takes Osweiler any higher than the 4th.

BeerBaron
01-31-2012, 09:11 AM
Coleman is one of my sleepers because his footwork, release, and delivery are all pretty strong at this point. Lindley has a rifle and the height/bulk but his footwork is among the worst I've ever seen. He makes Landry Jones look like Michael Jackson.

I pity the fool that takes Osweiler any higher than the 4th.

I just mention those guys because they have the physical tools in place that a franchise QB requires. I'd rather take my chances using a late round pick on one of them and trying to develop him than use a higher pick on someone with far more limited potential.

As for Oswelier...you know it's going to happen. I think he'll be a first round pick by the end of it all. He'll get Gabberted up draft boards and some poor team will be stuck with him for a few years. (I actually like his odds of succeeding better than Gabbert's, but it doesn't change the fact that neither ever should have been a first round pick.)

A Perfect Score
01-31-2012, 11:01 AM
There is no ******* way Osweiler lasts until the 4th. I'll be shocked if he lasts past the Top 50 picks. If Joe Flacco can go 18th overall, I can't see any way Osweiler doesn't go very early. Someone is going to look at those tools and go start drooling.

Probably Jacksonville, because why not load up the roster with big, inaccurate passers.

ATLDirtyBirds
01-31-2012, 11:09 AM
There is no ******* way Osweiler lasts until the 4th. I'll be shocked if he lasts past the Top 50 picks. If Joe Flacco can go 18th overall, I can't see any way Osweiler doesn't go very early. Someone is going to look at those tools and go start drooling.

Probably Jacksonville, because why not load up the roster with big, inaccurate passers.


I have no doubt that Osweiler ends up in the first.

bitonti
01-31-2012, 11:12 AM
The tough thing is not only that Weeden is older, but how much his arm has been used. It's not like this guy was sitting around on a couch, resting his body. He pitched over 374 innings in 5 seasons, and that doesn't even factor how much Weeden was using it in just training and such.

Depending on the Combine, I think a team like the Jets could really use him in the 2nd.

+1 arm use is a factor also the fact he never took a snap under center at Okla State. Probably a late 3rd. cusp of top 100 is this player's value. Others will value him more highly, that is wishful thinking.

oh and the Jets aren't gonna draft a Qb. they will sign Chad Henne and go with Sanchez/Henne/McElroy

Babylon
01-31-2012, 11:13 AM
Weeden's getting hyped because of his age.

Probably just the opposite. I think his age will really hurt him. By comparison he's probably somewhere in that Chris Winke category so he could get into the 4th or so, but i wouldnt take him.

ChiFan24
01-31-2012, 01:13 PM
Question for those that say late third - what exactly does the team think they're gaining with such a pick? A relatively short term backup with no NFL experience? How is that worth a third round pick? Wouldn't you prefer a guy with a similar skill set in his early twenties with a chance to improve?

BeerBaron
01-31-2012, 01:16 PM
Question for those that say late third - what exactly does the team think they're gaining with such a pick? A relatively short term backup with no NFL experience? How is that worth a third round pick? Wouldn't you prefer a guy with a similar skill set in his early twenties with a chance to improve?

I don't disagree with you but the counterargument seems to be that anyone who says things like that is simply biased against his age.

Even if he were 23, the 3rd round is all the higher he should go.

Babylon
01-31-2012, 01:20 PM
Question for those that say late third - what exactly does the team think they're gaining with such a pick? A relatively short term backup with no NFL experience? How is that worth a third round pick? Wouldn't you prefer a guy with a similar skill set in his early twenties with a chance to improve?

Agree with you and BB that the age is just a sidebar to the fact he's an average prospect at best. I'd take him over a TJ Yates coming out but he shouldnt be any more than a late round pick.

ChiFan24
01-31-2012, 02:14 PM
I don't disagree with you but the counterargument seems to be that anyone who says things like that is simply biased against his age.

Even if he were 23, the 3rd round is all the higher he should go.

Exactly....I'm totally biased against his age as far as 3rd-4th round vs. UDFA. But IMO, he projects as a backup at best anyway. I don't see how anyone can envision him as an above average starting QB at any point.

SRogers92
01-31-2012, 02:22 PM
Honestly, he'll be lucky to get drafted.

Jack203
01-31-2012, 09:06 PM
I predict late first round. His age is barely a blip on the radar. If a franchise can get 3-4 years out of him, that is huge.

At the worst early to mid second

MichaelJordanEberle (sabf)
01-31-2012, 09:30 PM
I predict late first round. His age is barely a blip on the radar. If a franchise can get 3-4 years out of him, that is huge.

At the worst early to mid second

At any other position besides RB? Sure, I wouldn't mind drafting a 28 year old in the first. Maybe CB too. But if you draft a QB in the first, you're doing it with the intention that he's your franchise guy, AKA a long term starter. Like a decade to fifteen years. Weeden can't really do that. Four good starting years about of a linebacker or DE or offensive lineman is fine. No one will complain about that. But the QB is different. And it's unlikely he's going to be ready to just jump in right away and be effective, he probably won't hit his prime until, at the very least, year 2. When he's 30. And even though I don't believe in the "pro style" offense in college, he's not coming from anything even closely resembling it. I'd definitely draft Weeden, based on what I've heard/read about him(didn't get to watch him at all), because I think he'll be a decent NFLer. But in the mid-rounds. Somewhere where any productivity at all is a pleasant surprise.

Also I'm not sure that his pitching career is even an issue, at all. Sure, he threw just under 400 innings in 5 years, but that wouldn't even be a blip on the radar if he was looking for a baseball contract, let alone an NFL one that puts far, far less stress on the arm than pitching does.

descendency
01-31-2012, 09:47 PM
I'm not a Brandon Weeden fan. I don't like when 25-30 year old guys are out there with 18 year old ones. I will always remember how good I thought Weinke was until I realized he was 30 before he was drafted.

BeerBaron
01-31-2012, 09:49 PM
Also I'm not sure that his pitching career is even an issue, at all. Sure, he threw just under 400 innings in 5 years, but that wouldn't even be a blip on the radar if he was looking for a baseball contract, let alone an NFL one that puts far, far less stress on the arm than pitching does.

He threw out his arm. He can no longer pitch a baseball without pain. It supposedly doesn't affect his football throwing motion but combine that with his age and the fact that he's simply not a good prospect, why even take the chance?

Jack203
01-31-2012, 10:18 PM
There are very very few 1st round QB's that can be the face of the franchise for 10-15 years. Especially late 1st.

Too much is being made of the Weinke comparison. Most drafted QB's do not pan out in the first place. It is extremely difficult for even good college QBs to become an above average NFL QB. I think Weeden has a better than 50/50 chance of making it for a few years. That's worth a late first.

Bengalsrocket
02-01-2012, 12:55 AM
If he was a better QB, his age shouldn't be a factor. I'd rather have a talented player for 6-10 years than take a less talented player that could possibly play for 15 years.

But I agree that he doesn't necessarily have the talent to warrant anything before the 3rd or 4th.

dannyz
02-01-2012, 03:34 AM
There are very very few 1st round QB's that can be the face of the franchise for 10-15 years. Especially late 1st.

Too much is being made of the Weinke comparison. Most drafted QB's do not pan out in the first place. It is extremely difficult for even good college QBs to become an above average NFL QB. I think Weeden has a better than 50/50 chance of making it for a few years. That's worth a late first.

I would rather take a Guy in the Late 1ST that slipped for what every reason and get a player that has a better than 50/50 Shot of being good for at least 5 Years and is also 20/21 Years Old.

MichaelJordanEberle (sabf)
02-01-2012, 09:40 AM
He threw out his arm. He can no longer pitch a baseball without pain. It supposedly doesn't affect his football throwing motion but combine that with his age and the fact that he's simply not a good prospect, why even take the chance?

OHHH, okay, that definitely makes sense. I just thought he wasn't happy with where his pitching career was taking him and wanted to try football. Then yeah, that's quite the red flag. If he gets his arm tangled with a DE's, that could end badly.

Guess I'm glad my team already has a QBotF and therefore won't be tempted ;)

MichaelJordanEberle (sabf)
02-01-2012, 09:53 AM
There are very very few 1st round QB's that can be the face of the franchise for 10-15 years. Especially late 1st.

Too much is being made of the Weinke comparison. Most drafted QB's do not pan out in the first place. It is extremely difficult for even good college QBs to become an above average NFL QB. I think Weeden has a better than 50/50 chance of making it for a few years. That's worth a late first.

I know there are very few, but that's still gotta be what you're looking for. Turnover at every other position is pretty high, and having a guy play for 10-15 years in one spot is rare, and teams are usually willing to let them walk as they get older and the team falls out of contention. At QB though, I can only think of 2 Franchise QBs that were let go by their original teams. And one of them was let go because he was terrible for long enough that his team felt the need to start over with a new one, and then he had a catastrophic shoulder injury. The other one had an idiot for a new coach who tried to acquire a wildly inferior QB to be his starter. Those are Brees and Cutler.

I think when you talk about a QB and "a few years," you're really just talking about a stop-gap. And teams look to stop-gap solutions when they're at the point where they aren't good enough to be true contenders, but not bad enough to get an actual good prospect. And when you're talking about that being his upside? I don't see the point in drafting him. You might as well trade that pick(or more likely, even way less than that) for some veteran backup, that you hope can start for a few years until you have someone better. Or sign Matt Flynn, who is younger and has a much better chance of being successful right away(and in the long term) than Weeden does.

I understand what you're saying about tempered expectations for a late 1st round pick, but I just think that a QB is different. Any time you take a QB in the first, or even second round, you're not hoping that you need to address that position again in 3-4, or 5 years. You're hoping you can address it when he's 35 after a long, illustrious career for your team.

Shane P. Hallam
02-01-2012, 09:55 AM
Guess I'm glad my team already has a QBotF and therefore won't be tempted ;)


Don't count your chickens...

BeerBaron
02-01-2012, 09:56 AM
Don't count your chickens...

He was just being an ass because of my Tebow dislike.

It's alright though, I threw him out of the Jay Cutler fan club as a result.

MichaelJordanEberle (sabf)
02-01-2012, 11:06 AM
He was just being an ass because of my Tebow dislike.

It's alright though, I threw him out of the Jay Cutler fan club as a result.

WTF? WHEN DID THIS HAPPEN??

Also even if I was totally confident that Tebow is the without a doubt QBotF, I still cheer for the team that traded a 25-year old Pro Bowler who finished 2nd in the NFL in passing yards... so I really shouldn't count chickens, even after they've hatched into pro bowlers.

onejayhawk
02-01-2012, 11:59 AM
I predict late first round. His age is barely a blip on the radar. If a franchise can get 3-4 years out of him, that is huge.

At the worst early to mid second

This.

To be taken in the 1st round, a trade is necessary. However, if a QB needy team trades back to the mid 20s, he be gone. Trading up to the late 20s is also possible.

For the "a few years" argument, think of what teams have paid for marginal starters of this age. Unless it is a dump situation, a solid career backup will bring a 2nd round pick. That is his floor IMO.

J

the_dark_knight
02-01-2012, 02:36 PM
Say hello to 2012's John Beck, the last guy who impressed against competition up to ten years younger than him. Weeden is getting overhyped; he's a 28 year-old man who was running up scores against teenagers with the top receiving option in the draft.

Completely agree. The guy is just a more seasoned athlete, he understands how to prepare on a level that these teenagers do not. However, that's what wins in the NFL as well. For me as a Falcons fan, I could see him in the 4th round as a legit option (if we had a 4th round pick) because I think he'll make a fantastic backup. I think he's got enough seasoning, that he'd be able to step in for an injured QB for a few weeks and everything wouldn't just flounder.

If Ryan went down, I'd love to have this guy back there as his backup, get him in there to try and carry us on until we can get Ryan healthy. I think the age thing is going to crush him in terms of being draftable. I mean these picks are precious to these teams, and if you're trying to find a gem in the draft, generally you're looking for someone to develop, not someone who's reached their athletic prime.

gpngc
02-03-2012, 12:56 PM
One NFL scout says age concerns about Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden's are a "joke" because he is ready to play in the NFL at age 28.
"The age thing to me is a big joke because he’s ready to play. He’s mature," said the scout. "He has all the physical attributes. There are no character issues. He has it all." If Weeden is as pro-ready as the scout described, he won't make it out of the first two rounds. Weeden could be an interesting selection for Denver in the second round. The Broncos refuse to tailor their long-term offense to Tim Tebow, and Weeden is essentially the prototype at 6'4" with a big, accurate arm.
Source: Washington Examiner
Feb 3 - 12:51 PM

I agree with this anonymous scout's stance on his age not being a factor at all.

I just can't figure out if I like him that much as a prospect otherwise. I was just never all that impressed. Very curious, need to watch more.

SenorGato
02-03-2012, 01:08 PM
Question for those that say late third - what exactly does the team think they're gaining with such a pick? A relatively short term backup with no NFL experience? How is that worth a third round pick? Wouldn't you prefer a guy with a similar skill set in his early twenties with a chance to improve?

He plays QB...if he's a strong backup/spot starter for a decade are you REALLY wasting a 3rd round pick?

As far as maturity and intelligence goes he's behind only Luck in this class IMO. Dude is going to be a very strong interview during the combine, probably amongst the best at any position in this class.

Prowler
02-03-2012, 04:00 PM
I would be willing to blow a 3rd round pick on a high upside backup QB. QBs drive this league. Use the first two rounds for your starters, and 3rd round is decent enough value to start addressing your major need areas.

DraftSavant
02-03-2012, 04:25 PM
One NFL scout says age concerns about Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden's are a "joke" because he is ready to play in the NFL at age 28.
"The age thing to me is a big joke because hes ready to play. Hes mature," said the scout. "He has all the physical attributes. There are no character issues. He has it all." If Weeden is as pro-ready as the scout described, he won't make it out of the first two rounds. Weeden could be an interesting selection for Denver in the second round. The Broncos refuse to tailor their long-term offense to Tim Tebow, and Weeden is essentially the prototype at 6'4" with a big, accurate arm.
Source: Washington Examiner
Feb 3 - 12:51 PM

I agree with this anonymous scout's stance on his age not being a factor at all.

I just can't figure out if I like him that much as a prospect otherwise. I was just never all that impressed. Very curious, need to watch more.

I don't think it's a factor at all.

In fact, when you consider that he was drafted into MLB baseball right out of HS, you might figure that it's actually kind of a plus. He's an adult and understands the demands of being a professional athlete (relatively).

I dunno, if you grade his tape high enough and think you can plug him in rather quickly and get a good 5 years out of him, I see no reason why you don't select him in the 1st (or any later than round 2).

FUNBUNCHER
02-03-2012, 07:24 PM
I just don't buy that Weeden is going to transition faster to the pro game than a 22-23 yrold QB prospect.

If he has starting potential, it's still going to take him 2-3 years to get to that level.
And no team is bringing Weeden in to be the savior.
Being a backup QB in the NFL is no crime. It's still good money.

DraftSavant
02-03-2012, 08:41 PM
I just don't buy that Weeden is going to transition faster to the pro game than a 22-23 yrold QB prospect.

If he has starting potential, it's still going to take him 2-3 years to get to that level.
And no team is bringing Weeden in to be the savior.
Being a backup QB in the NFL is no crime. It's still good money.

I dunno, I like him about 5000000 times more than I liked Dalton last year.

Starting fast is the newnew in the NFL.

ATLDirtyBirds
02-03-2012, 09:11 PM
I dunno, I like him about 5000000 times more than I liked Dalton last year.


Same. It seems like Weeden is being underrated here.