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View Full Version : Opinion: Tampa Will 90% Trade Their Pick


Jimmy
02-24-2012, 11:03 AM
The following long winded post is based under 5 reasonable assumptions:

1. Luck goes #1 to Indy

2. Tampa Bay does not want to take Blackmon at #5

3. Robert Griffin isn't available under any circumstances at #6

4. If Trent Richardson falls to #4 at Cleveland and Griffin does not, they will select Richardson

5. Minnesota values Mo Claiborne over Matt Kalil at #3, and would consider trading down to get Mo cheaper, if possible. Both are the #1 prospect at their positions

Fair warning that if you disagree with any of these you won't agree with this post.

To me, it is a 90% lock that Tampa trades up to #2 for Trent Richardson or trades down to any spot



Edit: You may not think they will trade up for a RB, but that means they will almost certainly trade down. Keep reading dammit, stop rebutting my point after reading this much. It will make more sense if you keep reading.
I know that's bold, but hear me out. I put 2 hours of thought into this.

First, we have to look at the #3 pick, because understanding the team that is picking here is vital to understanding why TB will be the team to trade up or down, despite having Blount.

#3 Minnesota- is not a threat to trade up to #2 WHATSOEVER. Content with Claiborne at #3. If they were to trade up, it'd be for Kalil, and St. Louis isn't ok with that. They wouldn't trade up for Claiborne, no team would ever leapfrog them for a CB at #2. And frankly, they don't care if STL takes Kalil, and they surely arent taking Claiborne.

If Minny trades down down, it would be to take Claiborne at #4 or 5 or 6. No matter what, this pick is Claiborne at this point. They are set with QB and RB. If they were to trade, then they would make sure that Claiborne was going to be at the lower spot. And they can't do this unless unless they trade back 2-3 spots, under the strict condition that the draft has started and that somebody traded ahead of them to take somebody else.

So Minnesota is out of the equation, we can pretend like the pick isn’t even there.

There is an ongoing threat that Washington trades up to #2, leapfrogging Minnesota and Cleveland to take Griffin. They do this not because Minnesota will take Griffin, but because Cleveland may at #4. They know with certainty that Griffin will not fall to #6, some team other than Cleveland will make a play to get him if Cleveland does not select him at #4. Too many scenarios for that, but it is fair to assume with 90% certainty that Griffin, who would be the #1 QB prospect if not for the best QB prospect in decades, will not be available at #6.

If Washington leapfrogs to #2, Minnesota CANNOT trade the #3 for the #5 pick to Tampa. This is because Griffin is off the board, and if Tampa swapped their #5 pick to Minny to select Richardson, (leapfrogging Cleveland) Cleveland would take Claiborne at #4. Minnesota would be stuck without Claiborne.

Therefore, if Washington trades to #2, Cleveland is guaranteed Richardson, effectively snubbing Tampa Bay out of a running back.

But Cleveland knows that Tampa bay wouldn’t be happy with this scenario, and would do anything they could to prevent it. So Tampa bay would jump to #2 and take matters in their own hands, preventing Washington from ever getting the #2. (Because, as I explained, Washington to #2 means no Richardson for Tampa Bay.)

If Tampa Bay trades up to #2 for Richardson, then Minnesota is still content with #3. Cleveland can get their man Griffin and knows that nobody can leapfrog them, because that would be a suicide move for Minnesota (as I explained, any team swapping with Minnesota would be taking Griffin from Cleveland. Cleveland would then take BPA in Claiborne, and Minny wouldn’t allow that.)

We have established that Cleveland does not care if Washington trades up for griffin at#2, because Minnesota would never budge because Claiborne would go next to cleveland. And if St. Louis doesn’t trade the pick at all at #2, Cleveland still gets Richardson or Griffin.

So, this means that the only realistic player for the #2 pick is Washington or Tampa. Any other teams trading up are extremely rare, as St. Louis doesn't want to loose Kalil. Tampa knows that a Washington trade to #2 takes Griffin (To Washington 100%) Claiborne (To Minny, 100%), Richardson (to Cleveland 100%), will mess them up and they will do anything in their power to trade up to #2 to take Richardson or move out. If they do not, they get NOBODY.

Washington on the other hand, is okay with not trading up, because they can still get somebody by NOT trading up. Even with ANY TEAM in the league leapfroggin up for BOTH Richardson and Griffin, Claiborne would go in the 3-5 range to Minny, at the very least. This gives Washington another guy they covet, Blackmon. They are OK with this and don’t make a trade because they aren’t desperate, like Tampa.

Tampa bay has the most to lose if they do not trade up or down.

ANY move from ANY team to #2 is to take Richardson or Griffin. This seals the fates of Claiborne and what is left of Griffin or Richardson at 4 and 5.

Tampa will trade up to #2 or move down from #5 with quite a bit of certainty. If they feel that it is not worth it to take Richardson, they by default must trade down, because there isn't a ton of value for them at #5 with Blackmon. Any number of teams might want to trade up to this pick for a variety of players.

Bob Sanders Dreadlock
02-24-2012, 11:04 AM
Why would they trade up? LGB isn't exactly a scrub. Better off trading back or keeping the picks they already have. Last year was disastrous and have a lot more needs to adress when they already have a fringe top 10 back.

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 11:16 AM
Why would they trade up? LGB isn't exactly a scrub. Better off trading back or keeping the picks they already have. Last year was disastrous and have a lot more needs to adress when they already have a fringe top 10 back.

That's the thing: If they don't trade up, they must by default trade down, because there is no value at 5, assuming they don't like Blackmon, like half this board.

All of this under one of my key 4 assumptions, at the beginning of my post.

gpngc
02-24-2012, 11:30 AM
So basically if:

IND - Luck
WAS - RG3
MIN - Claiborne
CLE - Richardson

Then the Bucs would be screwed out of the two guys taht make most sense at 5 (Mo and TR).

I get that but I think they'd happily take Blackmon, LMW and Arrelious Benn aren't exactly models of consistency. Kirkpatrick could potentially be a good pick there too. But I get why you think in that scenario, they'd trade down...

What you are missing, however is this extremely important point: THE VIKINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO TAKE KALIL (OR MAYBE EVEN REIFF) IF HE'S THERE AT 3 THAN CLAIBORNE! And that the Browns (or Vikes) could possibly take Blackmon there...

Also, you're hypothesis is predicated on WASHINGTON moving up for RG3. If Cleveland moves up (which is probably more likely at the moment), the Bucs WILL get one of Claiborne or TR.

IND - Luck
CLE - RG3
MIN - Claiborne or OT or Blackmon
STL - TR, Claiborne, or OT or Blackmon

OK, I get what you're saying actually. In this scenario, there is a chance that the Bucs are assed out again. BUT, in this scenario, there are TWO teams that could conceivably take an OT instead of TR/Mo so...

my rebuttal - it's more likely that an OT OR Blackmon will go top 4 than that TR AND Claiborne will go top 4...

Also, teams don't usually take CBs in the top 4 (especially with GREAT LT prospects there when they need LT), because great CBs can be neutralized easily by offenses simply not throwing on them.

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 11:39 AM
So basically if:

IND - Luck
WAS - RG3
MIN - Claiborne
CLE - Richardson

Then the Bucs would be screwed out of the two guys taht make most sense at 5 (Mo and TR).



I don't think that Mo is there. why? I'll explain later.



I get that but I think they'd happily take Blackmon, LMW and Arrelious Benn aren't exactly models of consistency. Kirkpatrick could potentially be a good pick there too. But I get why you think in that scenario, they'd trade down...



I think Kirkpatrick is much much lower on many people's boards. Like mid/late first.
like i said, if you don' t agree with the blackmon thing, then my post is moot. no further talking needed.


What you are missing, however is this extremely important point: THE VIKINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO TAKE KALIL (OR MAYBE EVEN REIFF) IF HE'S THERE AT 3 THAN CLAIBORNE! And that the Browns (or Vikes) could possibly take Blackmon there...

But that's STL's guy. STL would never trade from #2 past #5 if they suspected that the vikes would take Kalil, effectively sealing a non trade at #2. They won't want reiff. And even if washington moved up to #2 for RG3, minny would take Kalil according to you. STL does not pass up Kalil for Reiff, who most scouts like Mayock say is only that high because of his position. Reiff is more of a 9-15 guy.

Also, you're hypothesis is predicated on WASHINGTON moving up for RG3. If Cleveland moves up (which is probably more likely at the moment), the Bucs WILL get one of Claiborne or TR.

well if Cleveland moves up to take RG3, but your logic, minny will take kalil. so why would St Louis once again damage their chances of getting their main guy? They certainly wouldn't take reiff at #4. They aren't taking Richardson. Then who?

my rebuttal - it's more likely that an OT OR Blackmon will go top 4 than that TR AND Claiborne will go top 4...

I agree that an OT goes top 5, kalil, but the original condition of my post was that you had to agree that blackmon would be at #6, and that washington would happily take him, but that at #5 tampa wouldn't.

gpngc
02-24-2012, 11:44 AM
I agree that an OT goes top 5, kalil, but the original condition of my post was that you had to agree that blackmon would be at #6, and that washington would happily take him, but that at #5 tampa wouldn't.

If Kalil goes top 4, then how the hell do both Mo and TR go top 4 as well? This is what I don't see.

Luck
RG3
Kalil
TR/Mo
TR/Mo

The teams don't matter...

Again, if you assume that RG3 and Kalil go top 5, the Bucs will get one of TR or Mo. Map out your TB nightmare scenario so that it's easier to follow...

gpngc
02-24-2012, 11:45 AM
well if Cleveland moves up to take RG3, but your logic, minny will take kalil. so why would St Louis once again damage their chances of getting their main guy? They certainly wouldn't take reiff at #4. They aren't taking Richardson. Then who?




They'd take Richardson or Claiborne at 4. And the other would fall to 5... I don't get what you're missing. And if they take Blackmon, BOTH Mo and TR will be there at 5...

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 11:56 AM
If Kalil goes top 4, then how the hell do both Mo and TR go top 4 as well? This is what I don't see.

Luck
RG3
Kalil
TR/Mo
TR/Mo

The teams don't matter...

Again, if you assume that RG3 and Kalil go top 5, the Bucs will get one of TR or Mo. Map out your TB nightmare scenario so that it's easier to follow...
I'll add a 5th condition. minny likes mo over kalil. should have included thät. not too weird an assumption. never said in my original verbose post that kalil was a lock top the top 5.

AntoinCD
02-24-2012, 11:58 AM
Here's the most likely scenario as of now IMO

1. Indy take Luck

2. Washington trades up with St Louis and takes RG3

3. Minnesota run to the podium to take Kalil

4. Cleveland take their pick of Richardson, Blackmon, Wright or a darkhorse like Reiff or Adams

5. Tampa Bay take Richardson or Claiborne


I don't see the market being too rich for either Richardson or Claiborne at 5 and the strength of this draft is WR so I don't see anyone making a move up to 5 just because TB want to move down.

St Louis would probably take whoever is left of Blackmon, Wright, Richardson or Claiborne, the OTs, or go for someone like Still or Brockers.

Miami and Carolina could both use a stud CB but I don't see either moving up for Claiborne.

Jacksonville have too many holes to move up when they should get a real good player at 7.

Outside the top 10 you're asking way too much for someone to move up to 5.

Tampa Bay would probably love to move down but I just don't see the market for it

ChiFan24
02-24-2012, 12:04 PM
Can't agree to the condition that the Vikings would take Claiborne over Kalil, and I don't buy RB being that high a priority for anyone.

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 12:11 PM
Can't agree to the condition that the Vikings would take Claiborne over Kalil, and I don't buy RB being that high a priority for anyone.

that's ok. agree to disagree. let's just assume they like MO. both prospects are #1 at their positions and if Tampa has no Mo or TR at #5, what t
do they do?

gpngc
02-24-2012, 12:18 PM
The 90% claim is pretty crazy but Jimmy does bring up a scenario that would screw TB, which is I guess worth examining...

IND - Luck
CLE/WAS - RG3
MIN - Claiborne
STL/CLE - Richardson
TB - SCREWED

The problem with this happening is that it is extremely unlikely that Kalil passes picks 2, 3, AND 4, considering that at LEAST two teams need a LT (unless STL is down at 6). And there's also a chance Blackmon goes to say, STL or CLE at 4. So... I'd say there's about a 5% chance TB trades the pick because they are probably in GREAT shape to get TR or Mo at 5...

ChiFan24
02-24-2012, 12:18 PM
that's ok. agree to disagree. let's just assume they like MO. both prospects are #1 at their positions and if Tampa has no Mo or TR at #5, what t
do they do?

They definitely want to trade down there; I just don't know that it's that easy. Coples or Kalil I guess.

vidae
02-24-2012, 12:20 PM
Sorry, I stopped reading when someone called Blount a fringe top 10 back.

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 01:00 PM
The 90% claim is pretty crazy but Jimmy does bring up a scenario that would screw TB, which is I guess worth examining...

IND - Luck
CLE/WAS - RG3
MIN - Claiborne
STL/CLE - Richardson
TB - SCREWED

The problem with this happening is that it is extremely unlikely that Kalil passes picks 2, 3, AND 4, considering that at LEAST two teams need a LT (unless STL is down at 6). And there's also a chance Blackmon goes to say, STL or CLE at 4. So... I'd say there's about a 5% chance TB trades the pick because they are probably in GREAT shape to get TR or Mo at 5...

It seems really strange to all us draft experts, but conceptually it's not that odd. It'd be prospects 1, 3, 4, 5, 2 (according to scott) 1,3,4,6,2 (according to kiper)

Having the prospects go 1 luck, 3 griffin, 4 claiborne, 5 richardson, 2 kalil would be one of the normal drafts in history.

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 01:01 PM
The 90% claim is pretty crazy but Jimmy does bring up a scenario that would screw TB, which is I guess worth examining...

IND - Luck
CLE/WAS - RG3
MIN - Claiborne
STL/CLE - Richardson
TB - SCREWED

The problem with this happening is that it is extremely unlikely that Kalil passes picks 2, 3, AND 4, considering that at LEAST two teams need a LT (unless STL is down at 6). And there's also a chance Blackmon goes to say, STL or CLE at 4. So... I'd say there's about a 5% chance TB trades the pick because they are probably in GREAT shape to get TR or Mo at 5...

It seems really strange to all us draft experts, but conceptually it's not that odd. It'd be prospects 1, 3, 4, 5, 2 (according to scott) 1,3,4,6,2 (according to kiper)

Having the prospects go 1 luck, 3 griffin, 4 claiborne, 5 richardson, 2 kalil would be one of the normal drafts in history.

Shane P. Hallam
02-24-2012, 01:12 PM
4. If Trent Richardson falls to #4 at Cleveland and Griffin does not, they will select Richardson

5. Minnesota values Mo Claiborne over Matt Kalil at #3, and would consider trading down to get Mo cheaper, if possible. Both are the #1 prospect at their positions

Big assumptions to make.

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 01:20 PM
Big assumptions to make.

1. Well Luck is set at #1 (95% done)

2. The rams trade the pick to someone who takes Griffin, or they don't trade and they take Kalil or Claiborne. Filling bigger needs than RB, where they have Steven Jackson. (50 probability of happening)

3. The Vikes have AP. Not going trent. (90%)

The Browns would go Richardson if Griffin is taken... wouldn't they?

lowlife
02-24-2012, 01:23 PM
How exactly is TB screwed if Kalil falls right into their laps?

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 01:23 PM
[U]

Big assumptions to make.

I can agree that #5 is a stretch, but I don't think it's odd. Like I said, both guys are on virtually everyone's top 5 boards.

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 01:25 PM
How exactly is TB screwed if Kalil falls right into their laps?

I believe they are set at tackle. I also believe they also have a couple colossal needs to fill other than tackle. Pretty big deals, when you're going to owe the guy you pick a huge sum of money right away.

They'd be better off trading down and getting a kingdom of picks for someone who would pay a mint for Kalil, and who desperately needs him.

jrdrylie
02-24-2012, 01:29 PM
Why would they trade up? LGB isn't exactly a scrub. Better off trading back or keeping the picks they already have. Last year was disastrous and have a lot more needs to adress when they already have a fringe top 10 back.

Blount isn't exactly a scrub, but he is not good. He doesn't block well or catch the ball out of the backfield well so he really shouldn't be on the field on third downs. He is fat and slow. By no means is he a fringe top-ten back. At the very best, you could rank him 15th, but that is if you say he is better than guys like Ben Tate, Darren Sproles, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stweart, Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones, and others. To me, I'm not even sure I would call Blount a fringe top-twenty back.

I believe they are set at tackle. I also believe they also have a couple colossal needs to fill other than tackle. Pretty big deals, when you're going to owe the guy you pick a huge sum of money right away.

They'd be better off trading down and getting a kingdom of picks for someone who would pay a mint for Kalil, and who desperately needs him.

They aren't set at tackle. Jeremy Trueblood stinks and Donald Penn is average. He is a much better run blocker than pass blocker, so you could move him to the right side, plug Kalil in at Left tackle and you improve two spots with one pick.

But I don't think they should trade up. They pick at number five. Luck and Griffin will be drafted in the top-four. That means Richardson, Caliborne, or Kalil will drop to them. Anyone of them would be a great option for them.

lowlife
02-24-2012, 01:30 PM
I would put Trueblood up against any team's starting Tackle in a 'worst OT in the league' contest and be confident as **** in a win.

Kalil's contract will probably be well below market value for good starting tackle at #5 under the draft slotting system.

Penn is solid but he is no reason not to improve two positions at once by moving over to the other side and Kalil working the left edge.

AntoinCD
02-24-2012, 01:32 PM
1. Well Luck is set at #1 (95% done)

2. The rams trade the pick to someone who takes Griffin, or they don't trade and they take Kalil or Claiborne. Filling bigger needs than RB, where they have Steven Jackson. (50 probability of happening)

3. The Vikes have AP. Not going trent. (90%)

The Browns would go Richardson if Griffin is taken... wouldn't they?

The Vikings almost certainly take Kalil. Higher positional value and a bigger area of need.

The Browns may or may not take Richardson. They need WR help more than RB help. There are also the same trade down scenarios for the Browns as there would potentially be for the Bucs

lowlife
02-24-2012, 01:32 PM
One of Claiborne, Richardson, or Kalil will fall right into Tampa's greedy paws. Win.

jrdrylie
02-24-2012, 01:36 PM
I would put Trueblood up against any team's starting Tackle in a 'worst OT in the league' contest and be confident as **** in a win.



http://cdn.cloudfiles.mosso.com/c1910342/media_center/images/rendered/blog/wysiwyg/JMarcus-Webb.jpg

These guys are the starting tackles of the Bears. Helping Jay Cutler off the turf after allowing him to get gang raped was their only good plays of the year.

lowlife
02-24-2012, 01:47 PM
Oh I realize there'd be solid competition.

But Trueblood is slow legged and takes too long to set so he reaches constantly. He's a Mexican abortion against edge rushers

jrdrylie
02-24-2012, 01:49 PM
Oh I realize there'd be solid competition.

But Trueblood is slow legged and takes too long to set so he reaches constantly. He's a Mexican abortion against edge rushers

He is awful, that is why I would be shocked if Tampa Bay passed on Kalil if he somehow fell to #5 (which I can't see happening).

Bucs147
02-24-2012, 01:50 PM
I don't get why some people think we love Richardson and would like to take him over Claiborne. Mark Dominik has shown during the last few offseasons that he doesn't value the RB position at all. I mean, he was okay with beginning the 2011 season with an undrafted sophomore, a rookie 6th round pick, an over-the-hill journeyman and Kregg freaking Lumpkin as our runningbacks. Dominik also love to draft according to our needs and the CB position is our biggest weakness.

Mark also love CBs and overvalue the position. He has said this season that a team should draft a cornerback every single draft. So yeah, I'm pretty sure we have Claiborne higher that Richardson on our big board.

I believe they are set at tackle. I also believe they also have a couple colossal needs to fill other than tackle. Pretty big deals, when you're going to owe the guy you pick a huge sum of money right away.

They'd be better off trading down and getting a kingdom of picks for someone who would pay a mint for Kalil, and who desperately needs him.

No, we aren't set at OT. Trueblood is a terrible player. I guess he's good enough as a run blocker, but the guy has zero notion about how to pass protect. Freeman takes a huge shot every single game because of him. Trueblood also takes at least 1-2 flags every game (False start or Personnal Foul). Terrible players.

Penn is good, I guess but he was terrible during the last stretch of the season. He is also fat and love eating. I could see him eating his way out of the NFL.

If Luck, RG3, TR and Claiborne are picked before we picked, then we'll gladly take Kalil unless some team wants to give us a huge package of picks to trade up and take him (which won't happen). I would even prefer to draft Kalil ahead of TR.

Bucs147
02-24-2012, 01:52 PM
Sorry, I stopped reading when someone called Blount a fringe top 10 back.

I stopped reading when someone said we might/should trade up to the #2 spot to draft a freaking running back.

Crazy_Chris
02-24-2012, 02:11 PM
I highly doubt the Vikings are interested in Claiborne over Kalil. Kalil's positional value is way higher(especially considering they run a cover 2), the need is just as dire, and there is some good depth at CB in the draft.

AntoinCD
02-24-2012, 02:14 PM
I highly doubt the Vikings are interested in Claiborne over Kalil. Kalil's positional value is way higher(especially considering they run a cover 2), the need is just as dire, and there is some good depth at CB in the draft.

Yeah you can get a guy like Dennard who is a pretty good fit in a cover 2, or Chase Minnifield in the second but you're going to struggle to get a ten year starter at LT outside the first round

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 02:23 PM
Oh I realize there'd be solid competition.

But Trueblood is slow legged and takes too long to set so he reaches constantly. He's a Mexican abortion against edge rushers

well.... looks like I did 2 hours of thinking for nothing. at least I learned Jeremy trueblood blows.

thanks for that tidbit of information, I may have to sell my Trent richardson stock on playthedraft...

apologies to any bucs fans I have angered I. not knowing your offensive coordinator/RB coach preference (nvm, apparently he's your gm). I will say that it wouldn't hurt you at all if you took Trent, it just might not help as much as other guys would

Caddy
02-24-2012, 03:02 PM
http://tinyurl.com/83ee5ue

regoob2
02-24-2012, 03:13 PM
Why would anyone trade up to #2 for a RB?

General Zod
02-24-2012, 03:18 PM
The Vikes are almost definitely taking Kalil at 3. Rick Spielman is already gushing about him. Unless they can find a blockbuster deal to trade down and get a bunch of picks. I think there is a 99.9% chance they take Kalil.

Jimmy
02-24-2012, 04:10 PM
The Vikes are almost definitely taking Kalil at 3. Rick Spielman is already gushing about him. Unless they can find a blockbuster deal to trade down and get a bunch of picks. I think there is a 99.9% chance they take Kalil.


That is... if St. Louis doesn't take him first.

gpngc
02-24-2012, 04:12 PM
That is... if St. Louis doesn't take him first.

In which case Minny would take RG3 or Claiborne, CLE would take RG3, TR, or Claiborne, and the Bucs would take TR or Mo. Easy. They are the easiest to predict in the draft besides Indy.

descendency
02-24-2012, 06:42 PM
Indy - Luck
??? - Griffin
Minnesota - Kalil

If the Rams are at 4 (and Cleveland took Griffin), then the Rams will either take Blackmon or Claiborne (both plug major holes). Richardson sense too as Steven Jackson is done.

However, I think they go with either Claiborne or Blackmon.

Then Richardson at 5th.

If Cleveland sits at 4 (because they got Matt Flynn or are going with Colt McLol), then they will probably target Blackmon. Richardson doesn't make sense.

Either way, Tampa (at 5) gets Richardson.

The only question I would have is whether they would target Claiborne or not, given Aqib Talib's legal problems.

That is... if St. Louis doesn't take him first.

That would be stupid to let Griffin fall. Some team will overpay for him.

Cleveland's 2 firsts + a late rounder = 2nd overall. If Cleveland doesn't want to give up that late rounder, I'm sure they have a special teamer or something that St Louis would want.

Vikings4ever
02-24-2012, 07:01 PM
If Cleveland sits at 4 (because they got Matt Flynn or are going with Colt McLol), then they will probably target Blackmon. Richardson doesn't make sense.

Richardson makes sense if they let Hillis walk.

scottyboy
02-24-2012, 07:15 PM
one of the to QB's (Luck or RG3) won't be there at 5 (which they wouldn't pick anyway). both of those are going top 4. Leaving 3 studs left in the draft of Kalil, Claiborne and Richardson, all top talent who would help the Bucs.

I don't see why they'd trade unless blown away with an offer of someone desperate to leapfrog someone else. They can sit back at 5 and get one of the elite talents in this draft

NorrinRadd12
02-26-2012, 04:59 PM
The following long winded post is based under 5 reasonable assumptions:


2. Tampa Bay does not want to take Blackmon at #5


That's not a reasonable assumption. Bucs desperately need a #1 WR. Mike Williams is a good #2. Parker is a good #3. Briscoe looks like a good #3/could be good #2. Benn, other than 3 or 4 plays a season, has been a disaster.

Shane P. Hallam
02-26-2012, 05:22 PM
That's not a reasonable assumption. Bucs desperately need a #1 WR. Mike Williams is a good #2. Parker is a good #3. Briscoe looks like a good #3/could be good #2. Benn, other than 3 or 4 plays a season, has been a disaster.

Looks like they will have a good shot at Manningham actually.

bucfan12
02-26-2012, 06:25 PM
If Morris Claiborne is not there at 5 for the Bucs to select, they will look to trade back, pending who is on the board that a team further down covets. Jacksonville could be licking there chops for Blackmon, so that is a possibility.

Claiborne is an elite CB prospect in the NFL. If he is not there for the Bucs, they look to get picks and trade down. It's not worth taking Richardson at 5, because frankly, why take a guy to split carries with Blount at 5? Richardson will fall to a team in the 10-16 range.

bucfan12
02-26-2012, 06:26 PM
Looks like they will have a good shot at Manningham actually.

I still think Williams is a possibilty to be moved. He did nothing to impress the front office last year on or off the field. His work ethic dropped DRAMATICALLY!

I think Dez Briscoe has much better upside. Also, Manningham would be a good pick up and Benn is good in the slot, but keep you're eyes peeled for a guy like Blackmon, or even Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech, who has the most upside than any other WR in this draft.

Caddy
02-26-2012, 06:35 PM
Looks like they will have a good shot at Manningham actually.

I think he would be a bad pickup. I don't think he is a #1 type at all and I'm not convinced he will sign with us because Sullivan is our OC.

kalbears13
02-26-2012, 06:53 PM
Richardson at #4 isn't close to a lock at all if Griffin isn't there. Maybe it's just because I'm anti-Richardson, but there are a lot of holes that the Browns need filled and plenty of other options at that spot.

pappanorm
02-26-2012, 07:26 PM
1. Luck (Indy)
2. Griffin (Wash)
3. Kalil (Minn)

4. Browns trade out to a team that wants:

A. Claiborne or
B. Blackmon or
C. Richardson.

It looks like a draft-day trade with Tampa Bay and Cleveland for the rights to pick 4th.

kalbears13
02-26-2012, 07:34 PM
1. Luck (Indy)
2. Griffin (Wash)
3. Kalil (Minn)

4. Browns trade out to a team that wants:

A. Claiborne or
B. Blackmon or
C. Richardson.

It looks like a draft-day trade with Tampa Bay and Cleveland for the rights to pick 4th.

You realize that the Browns could realistically draft any one of those players.

pappanorm
02-26-2012, 07:56 PM
You realize that the Browns could realistically draft any one of those players.

The Browns would be much better served if they traded down for a couple more picks than draft one of the top players at their position. Cleveland has needs at: QB, OT, DE, WR, RB, OLB and CB.

bucfan12
02-26-2012, 08:11 PM
If I'm Tampa, I'd be looking at WR Michael Floyd. The more I watch him, the more I see Vincent Jackson comparison. Freeman needs help, but I think he needs more help at WR. If Mo-Clay is off the board, I'd trade down and select Floyd, who I think is a better WR than Blackmon.

H.O.O.D
02-27-2012, 08:44 AM
If I'm Tampa, I'd be looking at WR Michael Floyd. The more I watch him, the more I see Vincent Jackson comparison. Freeman needs help, but I think he needs more help at WR. If Mo-Clay is off the board, I'd trade down and select Floyd, who I think is a better WR than Blackmon.

What if you can't find a trade partner to move back ?

bucfan12
02-27-2012, 09:39 AM
What if you can't find a trade partner to move back ?

If somehow the top 4 go:

1. Luck
2. RG III
3. Claiborne
4. Richardson/Blackmon
5.????..............

There will be WR hungry teams or teams in dire need for a LT. Blackmon (if availiable, pending who trades with St. Louis) and Khalil won't be on teams radars ?

Again, the only way I see Tampa trading down is if Claiborne is off the board.

H.O.O.D
02-27-2012, 10:11 AM
If somehow the top 4 go:

1. Luck
2. RG III
3. Claiborne
4. Richardson/Blackmon
5.????..............

There will be WR hungry teams or teams in dire need for a LT. Blackmon (if availiable, pending who trades with St. Louis) and Khalil won't be on teams radars ?

Again, the only way I see Tampa trading down is if Claiborne is off the board.

Just don't see Minnesota passing on Khalil at this point. The only way I think they would is if they dealt out of 3 because of a great offer by someone else desperate for the premier LT in this class.

I think Tampa will be looking at 2 of the following 3 (Claiborne, Blackmon or Richardson). Perhaps they can move out if they can get a deal done with someone wanting the #1 WR or CB in this class but Claiborne would be tough to pass up considering the premium on corners if they can land someone like a Meachem/Maningham/Garcon via FA.

bigbuc
02-27-2012, 09:15 PM
If Kalil falls to 5 the Bucs will draft him move Penn to RT and be set for the next 5 years at both spots.

vidae
02-27-2012, 09:30 PM
I don't see how Kalil can fall to 5.

Caddy
02-27-2012, 09:32 PM
I don't see how Kalil can fall to 5.

Thankfully he put the word IF at the front of the sentence!

But yeah, he isn't slipping.

gpngc
02-27-2012, 09:37 PM
So we've come full circle.

There is a 90% chance Tampa WILL NOT trade their pick.

SHUT 'ER DOWN!

Iamcanadian
02-28-2012, 03:13 PM
I think you wasted your 2 hours. Tampa Bay will stay put. First, nobody ever traders up for a RB in the top 5 picks, the cost in picks is just too absurd to even contemplate. Richardson will be lucky as a RB to get picked in the top 10.
Second, to trade back, you need a buyer and I don't see a prospect worth the cost of trading up with Tampa Bay. RB's aren't that valued in the new passing first NFL and Claiborne just ran a 4.50 40 thereby removing himself from the elite category.

Luck and RG111 will go 1/2, Kalil will go #3 to Minny and after that there is a huge drop off in talent to the #4 pick never mind the #5 pick, so finding a trading partner willing to give up multiple picks for those slots seems very remote to me.

Bucs_Rule
03-01-2012, 10:52 AM
The only way TB traded down would be for much less value then the chart says.

Jimmy
03-01-2012, 10:54 AM
Do we really have to keep bumping a thread that I regret making entirely? Yes?

http://0.tqn.com/d/webtrends/1/0/B/A/-/-/okay-meme-face.jpg

bucfan12
03-01-2012, 04:07 PM
.
Second, to trade back, you need a buyer and I don't see a prospect worth the cost of trading up with Tampa Bay. RB's aren't that valued in the new passing first NFL and Claiborne just ran a 4.50 40 thereby removing himself from the elite category.

.

Really? He's not an elite player or prospect anymore because he ran a 4.5? News flash. CBs don';t get down in 3 point stances and run straight-line anymore. You need to have lateral movements and fluid hips so you can turn and run. He showed that on the field in ACTUAL games, as well in drills at the combine, where he flourished and impressed.

His stock is actually higher to the point Tampa may not see him at 5. He's a pure CB with ball skills.

descendency
03-01-2012, 04:10 PM
Really? He's not an elite player or prospect anymore because he ran a 4.5? News flash. CBs don';t get down in 3 point stances and run straight-line anymore. You need to have lateral movements and fluid hips so you can turn and run. He showed that on the field in ACTUAL games, as well in drills at the combine, where he flourished and impressed.

His stock is actually higher to the point Tampa may not see him at 5. He's a pure CB with ball skills.

Yeah. If anyone watched the DB drills, he was clearly the best CB out there. He had a few things to correct (all very correctable), but he definitely did almost everything right and had zero problem getting to the deep passes.

He had no trouble covering anyone in the SEC the past few years. His game speed should be fine.

bucfan12
03-01-2012, 04:12 PM
Yeah. If anyone watched the DB drills, he was clearly the best CB out there. He had a few things to correct (all very correctable), but he definitely did almost everything right and had zero problem getting to the deep passes.

He had no trouble covering anyone in the SEC the past few years. His game speed should be fine.

Yeah I know. It just puzzles me how some people take too much out of the combine. I mean, Ahmad Carrol ran a 4.27 and he was cut 3 years into the league because he was terrible.

Legacy
03-02-2012, 02:59 PM
If Kalil falls to 5 the Bucs will draft him move Penn to RT and be set for the next 5 years at both spots.
Bingo. I'd be ecstatic if Kalil fell to the Bucs.

bucfan12
03-02-2012, 10:18 PM
Bingo. I'd be ecstatic if Kalil fell to the Bucs.

Penn is a LT. I don't think he can play RT and be successful. His best asset is pass protection and he does a very good job and is vastly underrated each year when it comes to the pro bowl selection.

I've seen many analysts wonder why he doesn't get enough credit and is a top 10 LT in this league and is still 27 years old. Why would we try to replace him?

Legacy
03-03-2012, 06:57 PM
Penn is a LT. I don't think he can play RT and be successful. His best asset is pass protection and he does a very good job and is vastly underrated each year when it comes to the pro bowl selection.

I've seen many analysts wonder why he doesn't get enough credit and is a top 10 LT in this league and is still 27 years old. Why would we try to replace him?
Penn was a very good LT about 2-3 years ago. His game has dropped off considerably ever since he put on a huge amount of weight.

bucfan12
03-04-2012, 02:49 PM
Penn was a very good LT about 2-3 years ago. His game has dropped off considerably ever since he put on a huge amount of weight.

He just recieved a 6 year deal last offseason, where in terms, he showed up between 310-320 range and has known to kept that. And that is where you're wrong. You don't watch much tape. He was a Pro Bowler in 2010 and had another solid season last year. I think he needs help at LG, as Zuttah is more of a fit at Center.

Seriously, why address a position that isn't a need at all.