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Scott Wright
10-26-2012, 07:25 PM
Just posted the second mock draft of the year and there were a lot of big changes!

2013 Mock Draft - v.2.0
http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php

As always constructive criticism is not only welcomed but encouraged. However, please be sure to explain the reasoning behind your opinions like I do in the mock or risk being infracted.

Let's keep this thread fun and informative!

Now... FIRE AWAY! :)

Raiderz4Life
10-26-2012, 07:30 PM
Scott, great job as always, do you think 5 is too high for Milliner or Banks?

I would say our D-line is solid, could definitely use a pass rusher no doubt, but when your starting secondary is Lee-Branch-Giordano-Huff, something needs to be done. So I think CB, DE, and QB would be top 3 positions to look at for the Raiders.

You mentioned a TE but I think Myers has been doing a great job thus far.

PossibleCabbage
10-26-2012, 07:31 PM
I think the comparison to Mark Ingram in the Lattimore writeup are pretty indicative. Ingram is pretty much shown that the value (or lack thereof) of a workhorse style back in a passing offense with limited touches available for an RB. Would Lattimore really be any better in Green Bay's offense than Ingram was in New Orleans'?

I'm not sure he's a great zone running back anyway.

I'd rather have Eifert in Green Bay than any of this year's RBs anyway.

coordinator0
10-26-2012, 07:34 PM
I really like the Arthur Brown pick for the Ravens. MLB might be the biggest need on the team and he's a good fit for what they need in the front-seven.

Pat Sims 90
10-26-2012, 07:37 PM
How does Werner fall out of the top 15? Pass Rushers are a perineum in the NFL and he is arguably one of the best in this class.

PossibleCabbage
10-26-2012, 07:39 PM
How does Werner fall out of the top 15? Pass Rushers are a perineum in the NFL and he is arguably one of the best in this class.

Probably (and this isn't fair to him, but this happens) because there's kind of a stigma attached FSU pass rushers since the track record has not been strong (it's like PSU RBs or USC WRs.)

princefielder28
10-26-2012, 07:49 PM
I think having a solid center in Barrett Jones would do the team more good than Lattimore

Scott Wright
10-26-2012, 07:50 PM
Scott, great job as always, do you think 5 is too high for Milliner or Banks?

I do think Top 5 overall would be too rich for Johnathan Banks or Dee Milliner. They are more mid-1st Round values, although I may be in the minority because I personally prefer Banks.

Matthew Jones
10-26-2012, 07:51 PM
Sylvester Williams is a solid value but I think the Patriots should look for another pass rusher more than a defensive tackle considering they already have Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love.

Scott Wright
10-26-2012, 07:52 PM
I think the comparison to Mark Ingram in the Lattimore writeup are pretty indicative. Ingram is pretty much shown that the value (or lack thereof) of a workhorse style back in a passing offense with limited touches available for an RB. Would Lattimore really be any better in Green Bay's offense than Ingram was in New Orleans'?

I'm not sure he's a great zone running back anyway.

I'd rather have Eifert in Green Bay than any of this year's RBs anyway.

I definitely think it's fair to question whether Lattimore is a special enough prospect at the running back position to invest a first round pick on. Personally, I'd be inclined to wait a round or two where I could get similar productive at a fraction of the cost.

As for Ingram, I think some of his issues stem from how New Orleans utilizes him and he really hasn't gotten a chance to be a workhorse in the NFL yet.

Scott Wright
10-26-2012, 07:55 PM
How does Werner fall out of the top 15? Pass Rushers are a perineum in the NFL and he is arguably one of the best in this class.

Just not sure Werner is dynamic enough as a pass rusher to go in the top half of round one. Don't get me wrong Werner is a terrific all-around player, but I wonder how much of a force he will be off the edge at the next level. As "PossibleCabbage" mentioned, Florida St. defensive ends don't exactly have a great track record translating to the NFL either.

Scott Wright
10-26-2012, 07:57 PM
Sylvester Williams is a solid value but I think the Patriots should look for another pass rusher more than a defensive tackle considering they already have Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love.

New England has added a lot of defensive end / outside linebacker types like Jermaine Cunningham, Chandler Jones and Jake Bequette the past few years though...

PossibleCabbage
10-26-2012, 07:58 PM
I definitely think it's fair to question whether Lattimore is a special enough prospect at the running back position to invest a first round pick on. Personally, I'd be inclined to wait a round or two where I could get similar productive at a fraction of the cost.

As for Ingram, I think some of his issues stem from how New Orleans utilizes him and he really hasn't gotten a chance to be a workhorse in the NFL yet.

Well, why would New Orleans give Ingram a chance to be a workhorse back when it involves taking the ball out of Drew Brees's hands?

Likewise, why would Green Bay give Lattimore a chance to be a workhorse back when it involves taking the ball out of Aaron Rodgers' hands?

I think the "wait to take RBs" school of thought is correct, and particularly correct when it comes to teams which run their offense through the passing game. If you want to play RB in a pass-first offense, you need to be able to block, catch, and make the most of limited opportunities. You can't be a guy who needs 20-25 carries to get rolling, which is what, I fear, most "consensus top RBs" are. I don't think guys who block, catch, and can hit an open hole when there is one are necessarily worth first round picks.

antwanboldin
10-26-2012, 08:00 PM
I think you Can eliminate WR as a possibIlity for Dallas. Right now they're getting embarrassed at the LOS.

Warmack looks iupati-esque so that's a good call. They should be after Montgomery, barkevious, Werner, and Moore too.

redbills
10-26-2012, 08:15 PM
No way they kick Glenn from the LT spot and you don't draft a RT in the top 10. Pears/Hairstion combo is fine at RT.

Scott Wright
10-26-2012, 08:27 PM
No way they kick Glenn from the LT spot and you don't draft a RT in the top 10. Pears/Hairstion combo is fine at RT.

Ah, Bills fans. I remember the days when they were ripping me on these same forums for saying Terrance Pennington wasn't the long-term answer. Same goes for Hairston and Pairs.

Raiderz4Life
10-26-2012, 08:30 PM
No way they kick Glenn from the LT spot and you don't draft a RT in the top 10. Pears/Hairstion combo is fine at RT.

If you don't see the problem with that piece then, idk.

bucfan12
10-26-2012, 08:42 PM
Scott,

Good mock overall, but I question the Bucs pick. Why Jonathon Hankins? If you've watched any game this year, they're bleeding for CB help. Milliner to the Bucs makes a lot more sense. I like Hankins, but Milliner is a stud CB prospect that I can't see them passing up in your scenario there.

Thanks Scott.

redbills
10-26-2012, 08:57 PM
Ah, Bills fans. I remember the days when they were ripping me on these same forums for saying Terrance Pennington wasn't the long-term answer. Same goes for Hairston and Pairs.

Nix isn't moving Glenn from LT so doesn't matter what you think they should do. they see him as a LT he's played good there he isn't getting moved. Can the Luke play RT cuz he isn't playing LT for the Bills. Also Nix has never drafted a OT in round 1 so I don't see him taking a RT at 6. Cb, SS, de, 2 lb, WR and qb are all needed way before a rt.

Scott Wright
10-26-2012, 09:05 PM
Scott,

Good mock overall, but I question the Bucs pick. Why Jonathon Hankins? If you've watched any game this year, they're bleeding for CB help. Milliner to the Bucs makes a lot more sense. I like Hankins, but Milliner is a stud CB prospect that I can't see them passing up in your scenario there.

Thanks Scott.

Can't disagree on the need for a cornerback in Tampa, especially if they let Aqib "Weed" Talib go. It just came down to value and I didn't feel Johnthan Banks or Dee Milliner were worth a Top 10 overall pick. Al things being equal a corner gets the edge over defensive tackle though.

armageddon
10-26-2012, 09:18 PM
Decent Rams picks

How much better is Joekel than Lewan ? Also, they better be sure Reid is a difference maker if they pass on Warmack. Joekel / Lewan + Warmach would turn the Rams line into a dominant force.

Matthew Jones
10-26-2012, 09:20 PM
If you don't see the problem with that piece then, idk.

I'm having some trouble seeing the problem. The Bills rank fourth in rushing yards and have allowed only eight sacks. Why rebuild one of the most effective offensive lines in the league? Pears isn't great but they can go elsewhere and wait for Zebrie Sanders to develop.

Raiderz4Life
10-26-2012, 09:22 PM
I'm having some trouble seeing the problem. The Bills rank fourth in rushing yards and have allowed only eight sacks. Why rebuild one of the most effective offensive lines in the league? Pears isn't great but they can go elsewhere and wait for Zebrie Sanders to develop.

Rotating 2 players to play 1 position? I'm not math genius but even I can see that's not a good thing.

Matthew Jones
10-26-2012, 09:25 PM
Rotating 2 players to play 1 position? I'm not math genius but even I can see that's not a good thing.

When you're picking in the top ten, you need to drastically revamp your team in some capacity. Why waste a high pick on a unit which ranks among the NFL's best while ignoring bigger issues, like the 31st-ranked defense?

Raiderz4Life
10-26-2012, 09:31 PM
When you're picking in the top ten, you need to drastically revamp your team in some capacity. Why waste a high pick on a unit which ranks among the NFL's best while ignoring bigger issues, like the 31st-ranked defense?

I'm not saying its a high priority. What I am saying is that that's not a long term solution.

essential
10-26-2012, 09:54 PM
Ah, Bills fans. I remember the days when they were ripping me on these same forums for saying Terrance Pennington wasn't the long-term answer. Same goes for Hairston and Pairs.

Sorry Scott, gatta back redbills here. Glenn was a 2nd round pick, whom many considered to be a first rounder (yes at guard), but the Bills always viewed him as a LT. I remember at the pre-draft luncheon Nix and the scouts said they saw Glenn as a LT, one of the reporters even said a lot of the draftnicks see Glenn as a G, and Nix laughed and said he didn't put stock in to that and the kid did it all year at LT in the SEC, started off slow but got real good as the year went on.

Then after we drafted him, they stuck to staying LT only, and he got every LT rep from OTA's through training camp. Till his injury, he was a stud at LT in run and pass blocking, he was one of the few bright spots this year. I'm not saying Joeckel isn't worth the pick, or that we won't take him if he's BPA, but Glenn will not be moving from LT, if we took Joeckel he'd be RT, and I doubt we'd do that.

Fitz was one of the least sacked QBs, and our running game was tops in the league (till Glenn and Urbik went down, and we are still ranked high), we have way higher needs than tackle. I'd venture to say the pick is almost 100% going to be defense unless it's QB, although I agree we need more weapons in the passing game.

vidae
10-26-2012, 10:41 PM
I agree with the position (obviously) but I'd much rather have Geno Smith if the draft were today. He is coming off some not so great games, but I see a lot more from him than I have from Barkley.

I'm glad you're giving us a QB though! That makes me supremely happy.

Halsey
10-27-2012, 12:55 AM
Eifert seems reasonable if Gonzo retires. I'd kind of prefer a versatile, high character O-lineman like Barrett Jones in that scenario.

p.s. Are there any emerging RBs ,other than Lattimore, who might work their way into the first round?

T-RICH49
10-27-2012, 12:58 AM
not complaining about Barkley at all

RaiderNation
10-27-2012, 01:06 AM
Love the Raiders pick, Mingo is the exact type of pass rusher needed to give our dline a threat from the QB's blindside. He's also athletic enough to play some OLB for us in some looks as well.

villagewarrior
10-27-2012, 03:43 AM
not complaining about Barkley at all

I am. Figures the Chiefs would finally take a quarterback, but they would take the wrong one.

rawdawg
10-27-2012, 09:14 AM
In general, I think the teams in the 2nd half of your draft would be ecstatic with those picks. Dallas, Arizona, Jets, Steelers and Vikings in particular.

As for my team (the Bears), I like the pick. But this is a team that has often refused to take OL early, with a glaring need there. When they have taken OL early, they've been burned by Williams and now Carimi is showing to be a terrible pass blocker. I'd personally LOVE Fisher, as the idea of having a Joe Staley at LT for the next 10 years is wonderful. But I think the Bears will give Webb 1 more shot at LT (if he continues to play like he has, which isn't good but isn't embarrassing at the moment). They have a HUGE hole at LG with Chris Spencer being benched already and Chilo Rachal being not good.

I like Jonathan Cooper a lot and he would fill a huge need at LG, but I think he would be a longshot pick as the Bears historically have seen the OG position as one you can fill with mid-round picks or veteran castoffs. If the Bears go OL early, I'd look for them to go for a versatile guy that could push Webb at LT and Carimi at RT, but also settle in at LG if those guys step up. Might be a reach for both at 28, but Dallas Thomas and DJ Fluker would be guys that I think could be on the Bears radar early in the draft.

MassNole
10-27-2012, 10:03 AM
Just not sure Werner is dynamic enough as a pass rusher to go in the top half of round one. Don't get me wrong Werner is a terrific all-around player, but I wonder how much of a force he will be off the edge at the next level. As "PossibleCabbage" mentioned, Florida St. defensive ends don't exactly have a great track record translating to the NFL either.

Seems short sighted to compare players from the previous coaching staff to players from this staff. Werner isn't only a tremendous pass rusher, but he plays the run as well if not better than other DE in this draft.

killxswitch
10-27-2012, 10:09 AM
I love Manti but ILB is the strongest position on the defense. I really doubt the Colts go in that direction when the DL and interior OL are so weak. Also we will not sign Dwight Freeney to an extension and Jerry Hughes is a backup only, so we need another starter at OLB.

PossibleCabbage
10-27-2012, 12:22 PM
This may be a record for "fastest obsolete mock draft". If you didn't see Lattimore's knee injury, do yourself a favor and don't go looking for footage of it.

That may very well be career threatening.

descendency
10-27-2012, 12:25 PM
This may be a record for "fastest obsolete mock draft". If you didn't see Lattimore's knee injury, do yourself a favor and don't go looking for footage of it.

That may very well be career threatening.

How much worse could it be compared to his previous speed robbing injury.

He's already Marcus "Cedric Benson" Lattimore.

PossibleCabbage
10-27-2012, 12:27 PM
How much worse could it be compared to his previous speed robbing injury.

He's already Marcus "Cedric Benson" Lattimore.

It was, in a word, "Theismanesque".

This was the other leg, too. I am not an MRI but my amateur diagnosis from watching TV would be complete dislocation plus ACL, MCL, and PCL tears. I'm hoping, for his sake, that it's much better than that but it didn't look good.

cmarq83
10-27-2012, 01:46 PM
New England has added a lot of defensive end / outside linebacker types like Jermaine Cunningham, Chandler Jones and Jake Bequette the past few years though...

Williams isn't an awful pick, but I'd prefer to address the interior pass rush with one of those 2nd-3rd type guys that are always available. Love and Wilfork are above average guys at DT, but they desperately need somebody who can get a rush inside. There are always undersized guys like Crick and Atkins available later, so I would hold off and pull the trigger later. Realistically this DT would only need to play 30 snaps a game. That DE end spot opposite Jones is still a problem, and I'm fairly confident Bequette and Cunningham aren't long term solutions there.

You did a pretty good job of mapping out the Patriots needs, but if I could add one more I'd say an athletic linebacker to play in nickel packages would be one. The Spikes, Hightower, and Mayo trio has had its issues in coverage this year.

descendency
10-27-2012, 01:52 PM
The Patriots need a player like Barrett Jones.

G8R B8
10-27-2012, 02:50 PM
I would love for Dallas to draft Warmack.

Dallas is not going to draft a Safety, so it's logical. (Sensy, Church both locked up to 3+ year deals).

Jerry could always go with the flashy pick (Ala Mo, Dez). But building in the trenches, is what will get Dallas from a mid tier to a top tier team

Scott Wright
10-27-2012, 02:51 PM
The Patriots need a player like Barrett Jones.

And they can get THE Barrett Jones in Round 2 or 3. :o)

Razor
10-27-2012, 03:02 PM
And they can get THE Barrett Jones in Round 2 or 3. :o)
Why are you so down on Jones? I think he's a pretty good prospect.

killxswitch
10-27-2012, 03:51 PM
Why are you so down on Jones? I think he's a pretty good prospect.

What does he do really well that makes him a first rounder? He is versatile but that isn't enough in the NFL.

descendency
10-27-2012, 04:05 PM
What does he do really well that makes him a first rounder? He is versatile but that isn't enough in the NFL.

Excellent pass blocker, strong enough to play in Saban's man blocking scheme and athletic enough to play in a ZBS. Very smart.

Menardo75
10-27-2012, 04:59 PM
Really like the Niner pick.

Scott Wright
10-27-2012, 05:07 PM
What does he do really well that makes him a first rounder? He is versatile but that isn't enough in the NFL.

Bingo.

Love the versatility but isn't dominant at any position.

Not a great athlete or physical specimen either.

Scott Wright
10-27-2012, 05:08 PM
Really like the Niner pick.

I really struggled with the Niners pick because they don't have a ton of holes.

Would be interested to hear how a San Fran fan assesses their needs.

Legacy
10-27-2012, 05:17 PM
Scott,

Good mock overall, but I question the Bucs pick. Why Jonathon Hankins? If you've watched any game this year, they're bleeding for CB help. Milliner to the Bucs makes a lot more sense. I like Hankins, but Milliner is a stud CB prospect that I can't see them passing up in your scenario there.

Thanks Scott.
I actually like the pick.

When it comes to pass defense, I think a large part of the issue is the fact that the Bucs struggle to get consistent pressure on the quarterback. While I agree that they could use some help in the secondary, especially if Talib isn't re-signed and/or Barber retires, top-tier cornerbacks aren't going to be much help when the defensive line is giving opposing quarterbacks all day to throw. This is especially pertinent given that we play in a division with Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, who is looking pretty damned good this season.

Also, you need to consider that, while Roy Miller is playing very well this year, he's a free agent after this season and the Bucs are an injury to either Miller or McCoy away from having Corvey Ivin or Gary Gibson starting at defensive tackle.

bucfan12
10-27-2012, 07:04 PM
I actually like the pick.

When it comes to pass defense, I think a large part of the issue is the fact that the Bucs struggle to get consistent pressure on the quarterback. While I agree that they could use some help in the secondary, especially if Talib isn't re-signed and/or Barber retires, top-tier cornerbacks aren't going to be much help when the defensive line is giving opposing quarterbacks all day to throw. This is especially pertinent given that we play in a division with Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, who is looking pretty damned good this season.

Also, you need to consider that, while Roy Miller is playing very well this year, he's a free agent after this season and the Bucs are an injury to either Miller or McCoy away from having Corvey Ivin or Gary Gibson starting at defensive tackle.

The more I watch Hankins the more I love the pick and idea having him. But I still think milliner is a top 10 prospect.

Bob Sanders Dreadlock
10-27-2012, 08:46 PM
Hate the pick. Rather have Bank or pretty much any position but middle linebacker on defense I would be fine with.

Menardo75
10-27-2012, 09:21 PM
I really struggled with the Niners pick because they don't have a ton of holes.

Would be interested to hear how a San Fran fan assesses their needs.

Like you said not a ton of holes, but OLB depth is an issue. Haralson has been out all season and will be going into a contract year next year. Fleming their 5th round pick from Notre Dame was supposed to provide that but he's missed the season with an ACL injury.

D-line depth could also be addressed Sopoaga and RJF are both free agents next year, and depending on what happens with Dashon Goldson FS could also be a need.

Trogdor
10-27-2012, 09:27 PM
Despite bringing in Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau and Derrick Dockery as free agents last offseason the Cowboys are still a mediocre rushing team and rank near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed.


Solid pick but REALLY?

Dallas sits FOURTH in the league in sacks allowed with 9. Only teams allowing less sacks are Giants, Bills, and Texans. Our running game has been atrocious but you can't call them out on sacks. They have been top 4 in sacks allowed and sacks per drop-backs.

Scott Wright
10-28-2012, 12:57 AM
Wanted to let everyone know that in light of the gruesome injury to South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore I have removed him as Green Bay's pick in the mock and put North Carolina RB Giovani Bernard in his place. Tough break for Lattimore, it'll be interesting to see what he does.

Now I don't know if Bernard, who is a draft-eligible redshirt sophomore, is a first round talent but he'll be in the mix to be the first guy off the board at his position if he comes out and odds are there will be at least running back selected in round one. For what it's worth Bernard kind of reminds me of Knowshon Moreno (the good college version, not the awful pro version).

CJSchneider
10-28-2012, 07:32 AM
I have no problem with the Saints taking Short as I doubt we resign Ellis, but I know the big need is a DE that can put pressure on opposing QB's.

ryno626
10-28-2012, 03:43 PM
I know it's only minor nitpicking but shouldn't the Texans have the 31st pick? I don't think the Falcons will beat the Giants in the Super Bowl

Shane P. Hallam
10-28-2012, 04:23 PM
I know it's only minor nitpicking but shouldn't the Texans have the 31st pick? I don't think the Falcons will beat the Giants in the Super Bowl

The order isn't there for accuracy but for player slotting.

PossibleCabbage
10-28-2012, 04:33 PM
Now I don't know if Bernard, who is a draft-eligible redshirt sophomore, is a first round talent but he'll be in the mix to be the first guy off the board at his position if he comes out and odds are there will be at least running back selected in round one. For what it's worth Bernard kind of reminds me of Knowshon Moreno (the good college version, not the awful pro version).

But you're dead set on "Green Bay takes a Running Back"?

Would think that Center, and maybe WR (depending on what happens with Jennings in free agency) would rate as bigger "need" picks. I would probably rate the RB-need as a 7/10, the WR-need as an 8/10, and the C-need as 10/10.

Or did you just not want to have to change more than one pick?

Nikolas
10-28-2012, 04:39 PM
The order isn't there for accuracy but for player slotting.

There should still be a semblance of accuracy. The bottom 12 are a mathematical impossibility, since there's 7 NFC and 5 AFC teams, when there should be equal numbers, plus 31 should be an AFC team if 32 is going to be NFC.

SolidGold
10-28-2012, 04:40 PM
The Jaguars have much bigger needs than QB. They need help all over the place. Gabbert has just over a season of experience at this point and seems to be improving. Marcedes Lewis seems to have regressed, Blackmon is only a rookie. The offensive line especially at the tackle position is unsettled with Monroe being inconsistent and Britton always injured. I would recommend they get Joeckel and continue to develop Gabbert.

I really do not think Smith is worthy of such a high pick - he was really exposed against quality defenses. More needs to be made of that.

DavelinaJolie
10-28-2012, 04:41 PM
I know it's not the point of the mock but I was tickled by the idea of the Falcons and Giants playing in the SB.

I understand the Ravens need to replace Ray, but I don't think any ILB is going to be particularly effective in that defence with the NTs and DEs (Ngata aside) they're running out there. Mount Cody is nothing but a doughy blocking sled for centers to practice on, Kemo is on his last legs and will be gone next season, McPhee looks best suited to being a situational rusher, Art Jones doesn't seem to hold up well in any aspect.

Desperately hoping for a really good NT if there is no shot at Manti.

Scott Wright
10-28-2012, 04:43 PM
I know it's only minor nitpicking but shouldn't the Texans have the 31st pick? I don't think the Falcons will beat the Giants in the Super Bowl

I used the ESPN Power Rankings for the draft order, with some very minor tweaks.

Scott Wright
10-28-2012, 04:45 PM
But you're dead set on "Green Bay takes a Running Back"?

Would think that Center, and maybe WR (depending on what happens with Jennings in free agency) would rate as bigger "need" picks. I would probably rate the RB-need as a 7/10, the WR-need as an 8/10, and the C-need as 10/10.

Or did you just not want to have to change more than one pick?

No, it wasn't really a matter of not wanting to re-shuffle the mock because it wouldn't have changed many picks anyway. I just think running back is far and away Green Bay's most pressing need. Granted center is a concern as well, which I noted in the pick analysis, but that is too early for Khaled Holmes or Barrett Jones. As for wideout, even if they lose Jennings they still have Nelson, Driver, Jones, Cobb, etc. so I definitely don't see that as a first round priority.

PossibleCabbage
10-28-2012, 04:50 PM
I just think running back is far and away Green Bay's most pressing need. Granted center is a concern as well, which I noted in the pick analysis, but that is too early for Khaled Holmes or Barrett Jones. As for wideout, even if they lose Jennings they still have Nelson, Driver, Jones, Cobb, etc. so I definitely don't see that as a first round priority.

I would think they'd probably be best off trading back into the second round and taking a C/RB/WR there since, as you say, Bernard is a fringe first round prospect anyway.

But of course you can't project trades in an October mock. I just feel like taking any first round RB would be a reach this year.

JagWired32
10-28-2012, 05:13 PM
The Jaguars have much bigger needs than QB. They need help all over the place. Gabbert has just over a season of experience at this point and seems to be improving. Marcedes Lewis seems to have regressed, Blackmon is only a rookie. The offensive line especially at the tackle position is unsettled with Monroe being inconsistent and Britton always injured. I would recommend they get Joeckel and continue to develop Gabbert.

I really do not think Smith is worthy of such a high pick - he was really exposed against quality defenses. More needs to be made of that.

If Gabbert keeps it up after this week, I agree QB is not a need at least this year. But no way in hell can you be serious that Lewis has regressed. It's not his fault he has had to stay back and block. Also, Monroe is not inconsistent. He is one of the better LT's, he had a couple bad moments against Clay Matthews? Shocking.

I'm on board for one of Te'o, Jones, Montgomery, or Star.

Halsey
10-28-2012, 05:30 PM
I know a QB is likely to go #1, but what kind of shot does Jarvis Jones have of being the first pick? He was in his ridiculous Tasmanian Devil Dawg mode yesterday. He looks like an NFL player playing with college kids, even when he's on the field with blue chip SEC talent.

PossibleCabbage
10-28-2012, 05:35 PM
I know a QB is likely to go #1, but what kind of shot does Jarvis Jones have of being the first pick? He was in his ridiculous Tasmanian Devil Dawg mode yesterday. He looks like an NFL player playing with college kids, even when he's on the field with blue chip SEC talent.

Depends on who picks #1. If it's a team that needs a QB (e.g. if the Chiefs pick first), then it doesn't matter how good Jones is, you take a QB. If it's a team that doesn't think it needs a QB (e.g. if the Panthers pick first again) then it's probably not a QB. If it's a team that is somewhere in between needing a QB and not needing a QB, then it depends on the evals.

villagewarrior
10-28-2012, 05:38 PM
I know a QB is likely to go #1, but what kind of shot does Jarvis Jones have of being the first pick? He was in his ridiculous Tasmanian Devil Dawg mode yesterday. He looks like an NFL player playing with college kids, even when he's on the field with blue chip SEC talent.

He probably should. In a quarterback driven league, players that can put the quarterback on his back should be valued as highly as the quarterback himself. The only real knock on Jones is he is a bit injury prone. Hard to be 1-1 if you've already shown a tendency to miss games.

Halsey
10-28-2012, 05:39 PM
I just wonder if a team will be willing to spend a #1 overall pick on a guy with durability/health questions. Jones isn't the biggest guy either. Not sure that's really a knock on him, because he seems to use his compact frame to his advantage, but teams are nitpicky with the #1 pick.

PossibleCabbage
10-28-2012, 05:42 PM
I just wonder if a team will be willing to spend a #1 overall pick on a guy with durability/health questions. Jones isn't the biggest guy either. Not sure that's really a knock on him, because he seems to use his compact frame to his advantage, but teams are nitpicky with the #1 pick.

It's a matter of schematic fit. If a team picking high is a 3-4 team, they're salivating at Jones. If a team picking high wants to play big up front and have their LBs play coverage, then Jones isn't that attractive.

MicktheGreat
10-28-2012, 07:17 PM
Scott,

Overall, I like the Titans' pick of DE Sam Montgomery at #8. No doubt that we need help on the defensive side of the ball, and that starts with our DL -- which has a bunch of role-players but no dominant presence. In a best-case scenario, the Titans would be able to get DT Star Lotulelei but I don't see him dropping that far, and the Titans certainly won't trade up to get him. I could also see us going for S Eric Reid, as Griffin is wildly inconsistent, Babineaux is nothing more than a backup player, Markelle Martin is a complete mystery, and Robert Johnson is TERRIBLE.

On offense, the Titans desperately need to improve their OL. Chris Johnson gets all the flak, but he's looked OK in most of the games (aside from some pressing early on). However, this OL really, really struggles to get any sort of consistent push in the run-game. Leroy Harris is TERRIBLE, Hutchinson looks old, Velasco is just average, and Roos/Stewart have also dropped a bit in production as well. The Titans have a history of investing mid-to-late in the OL; but they really need to get some young, early-round talent in there soon -- preferably at OG. (I'd LOVE to get Barrett Jones in the 2nd round.)

Lastly, just to nitpick with your analysis of the Titans a bit, you mention that Wimbley is a proven veteran and that Morgan has been a disappointment. There's some truth to that; but most Titans' fans who watch the game closely would probably tell you that Morgan has far outplayed Wimbley so far this year. Wimbley's really been a non-factor and a liability against the run, but Morgan (while mediocre as a pass-rusher) has been our best DL against the run by a pretty wide margin. But, then again, that was sorta the knock on Morgan coming out of GTech -- that he was tough against he run and limited as a rusher, which has proven pretty accurate.

What the Titans need more than any player, however, is a coaching change at the coordinator spots. Palmer has been OK but has a knack for making boneheaded playcalls occasionally -- plus he's too quick to abandon the run. However, Jerry Gray has looked TERRIBLE as D-Coordinator this season -- like Chuck Cecil bad. The Titans' secondary plays the softest zone that I've ever seen at any level in an attempt to keep everything in front of us; but it doesn't work because the Titans are also one of the worst tackling teams that I've ever seen. Just a very bad, ill-conceived, poorly executed scheme from Gray; and he needs to be shown the door.

armageddon
10-28-2012, 08:48 PM
OT Lewan and OG Warmack would be a better choice for the Rams. It's time to fix this line once and for all. Hopefully the Redksins keep losing, because I know the Rams will, especially on the road.

lowlife
10-28-2012, 10:52 PM
I actually like the pick.

When it comes to pass defense, I think a large part of the issue is the fact that the Bucs struggle to get consistent pressure on the quarterback. While I agree that they could use some help in the secondary, especially if Talib isn't re-signed and/or Barber retires, top-tier cornerbacks aren't going to be much help when the defensive line is giving opposing quarterbacks all day to throw. This is especially pertinent given that we play in a division with Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, who is looking pretty damned good this season.

Also, you need to consider that, while Roy Miller is playing very well this year, he's a free agent after this season and the Bucs are an injury to either Miller or McCoy away from having Corvey Ivin or Gary Gibson starting at defensive tackle.

If passrush is the issue, then draft a passrusher not a NT.

Miller has played damn well in this system and is a keeper. Sure depth is necessary but you don't draft depth at 7th overall.

In this position, Montgomery has to be the pick or a trade back for a corner or Werner/Buchanon

KCStud
10-29-2012, 12:05 AM
I honestly don't think Kansas City will win another game. Cleveland is our best shot.

2-14 at best for KC. Matt Barkley come on down!

Caulibflower
10-29-2012, 12:06 AM
Wide receiver seems like the Seahawks' most glaring need, but Pete Carroll almost has an Al Davis type of approach to drafting players - he definitely goes for size and speed, so Robert Woods just doesn't really seem like a Seattle pick, despite the obvious connection. We've already got Doug Baldwin filling the same role regardless, so if Seattle goes receiver in round 1, I feel like they'd be more likely to grab the guy you had going two picks later in Justin Hunter. What they really need is someone who can dominate individual matchups on the outside.

Go_Eagles77
10-29-2012, 09:51 AM
Good eagles pick. If the eagles try to justify starting Kurt Coleman for another season I might do something violent.

SuperMcGee
10-29-2012, 06:03 PM
Say what you will about Terrance Pennington, but the Bills still haven't spent a first rounder on a tackle in all this time. I'm going to guess (I actually know for a fact) that we argued against a tackle because we still had a stud LT in those days and didn't see the need to spend a top-half of the first round pick on a right tackle. Sounds about like the situation we could be looking at, right now.

RT is the most unsure of our positions on the line, but the need does not come close to matching, oh, any other position outside of running back. I support the idea of having two very good tackles. Joeckel is darn good and I'm not guaranteeing anything about Cordy Glenn, who has played 3.5 NFL games. But I just don't see this pick. I can see this regime or, should it come to it, a different one bringing in a tackle with a decently valuable pick, depending on how Pears finishes the year, but not nearly this high.

ncst8fan83
10-29-2012, 06:19 PM
Scott,

Not sure where to put this but I figured you'd be checking this thread out more than others. How credible are Bucky Brooks and his scouting sources?

Legacy
10-30-2012, 12:56 AM
Am I the only one who thinks medical concerns will cause Jarvis Jones to fall in the draft?

He has spinal stenosis and it's probably going to limit his career, given the fact that Southern Cal's doctors were concerned enough about it that they wouldn't clear him to play for the Trojans again.

The last player I know of who had the same condition was Marcus McNeill, who fell in the draft because of those concerns and lasted only 6 years in the league. That's a hell of a risk for a top 5 pick.

Halsey
10-30-2012, 02:34 AM
Every team picking in the top 31 should just pass on Jarvis Jones. No reason those teams should even bother scouting him.

bruschis4all
10-30-2012, 10:38 AM
Williams isn't an awful pick, but I'd prefer to address the interior pass rush with one of those 2nd-3rd type guys that are always available. Love and Wilfork are above average guys at DT, but they desperately need somebody who can get a rush inside. There are always undersized guys like Crick and Atkins available later, so I would hold off and pull the trigger later. Realistically this DT would only need to play 30 snaps a game. That DE end spot opposite Jones is still a problem, and I'm fairly confident Bequette and Cunningham aren't long term solutions there.

You did a pretty good job of mapping out the Patriots needs, but if I could add one more I'd say an athletic linebacker to play in nickel packages would be one. The Spikes, Hightower, and Mayo trio has had its issues in coverage this year.

I can see Hightower eventually assuming Ninko's role in this defense. He's bigger and faster than Ninko He's actually very good rushing the passer. And, can drop into coverage. I doubt a pass-rushing dt drops to where the pats pick. But, I'd like to pick someone up in the first 3 rounds. Would also like to see a 4-3 OLB who can play in space and a safety.

Scott Wright
10-30-2012, 03:24 PM
Scott,

Not sure where to put this but I figured you'd be checking this thread out more than others. How credible are Bucky Brooks and his scouting sources?

Honestly don't have an opinion one way or the other because I haven't really followed his stuff.

Flaming Mo
10-30-2012, 03:33 PM
Absolutely love the pick for the Jets... Bryan Thomas and Calvin Pace look like they are running in quicksand, they are so done as OLB and provide no edge rush at all. Maybin never sees the field as he is only used on third and long plus he is no more than a situational rusher.

The Jets are undergoing a transition on defense to players who can play on every down and even though Rex likes to mix and match with different packages, in today's NFL it is hard to really be effective with many specialists. The DL is young and talented with Coples, Wilkerson and Ellis and at ILB the combo of Demario Davis and David Harris looks good aswell. Secondary is as nasty as they come but the Jets have NO edge rush ever since John Abraham left. Time to change that.

Gonna be interesting though if they go defense again in the first round as the offense has so many problems. I hope so though as they already got a bunch of young receivers and need more of a polished guy to help out Sanchez.

Scott Wright
10-30-2012, 04:58 PM
We are going to be breaking down the new mock on the podcast tonight.

Be sure to let use know if you have a question or comment in the stickied thread.

Caulibflower
10-30-2012, 06:33 PM
Hey Scott - Why not just give the Packers Montee Ball?

Scott Wright
10-30-2012, 06:35 PM
Hey Scott - Why not just give the Packers Montee Ball?

I considered it!

PossibleCabbage
10-30-2012, 06:41 PM
Hey Scott - Why not just give the Packers Montee Ball?

The Packers have taken 3 players from Wisconsin in the 20 drafts since the modern 7 round format has been adopted (Don Davey at #67 in 1991, Mark Tauscher at # 224 in 2000, and Bill Ferrario at #105 in 2001). I can almost guarantee that Green Bay will not draft Montee Ball (in any round) come April.

Some teams like to draft players from local colleges, Green Bay is kind of the opposite.

soybean
10-30-2012, 06:47 PM
The Packers have taken 3 players from Wisconsin in the 20 drafts since the modern 7 round format has been adopted (Don Davey at #67 in 1991, Mark Tauscher at # 224 in 2000, and Bill Ferrario at #105 in 2001). I can almost guarantee that Green Bay will not draft Montee Ball (in any round) come April.

Some teams like to draft players from local colleges, Green Bay is kind of the opposite.

the flaw in your logic is you're assuming there is any correlation (be it negative or positive) at all between Green Bay and University of Wisconsin.

ie. they're not going to go out of their way NOT to draft some one from Wisconsin.

PossibleCabbage
10-30-2012, 07:30 PM
the flaw in your logic is you're assuming there is any correlation (be it negative or positive) at all between Green Bay and University of Wisconsin.

ie. they're not going to go out of their way NOT to draft some one from Wisconsin.

Well, correlation is not causation. It's just that I've read mock after mock that implies that Green Bay wants to draft Wisconsin kids, when it actually seems like the opposite of that is true.

Montee Ball is absolutely not worth a first round pick, anyway. I'm not sure he's worth a day 2 pick even.

papageorgio
10-30-2012, 09:46 PM
the bills are gonna take a QB in the first one hundred percent. Fitzpatrick is the worst QB in the NFL. He cant throw a route farther than 20 yards and he is really the reason why the bills are not better right now.

ncst8fan83
10-30-2012, 10:10 PM
Honestly don't have an opinion one way or the other because I haven't really followed his stuff.

Thanks for the reply. I was just wondering because he's saying some scouts have Mike Glennon as #1 QB on their board. I'm not really sure how I feel about that. He's got the physical tools, but I'm not sure about what he has between the ears. Just found it interesting and wondered if you knew how his reputation is.

The Linebacker
11-04-2012, 08:22 AM
If Gabbert continues to progress like he has (it's like 1.25 steps forward, 1 step back) then I just can't see the Jaguars taking Geno Smith unless they replace the GM, as a new GM might want to go with his QB. Swap Geno Smith for Gene Smith?

holt_bruce81
11-04-2012, 03:32 PM
I like the rams two picks, even though I think I would take a guard over a safety right now if I were the rams.

And the more I watch Sheldon Richardson the more I think he'll be a top 15 pick at the end of the day. He's gonna blow up the combine. I'm calling a 4.65-4.75 forty.

keylime_5
11-04-2012, 04:08 PM
I like the rams two picks, even though I think I would take a guard over a safety right now if I were the rams.

And the more I watch Sheldon Richardson the more I think he'll be a top 15 pick at the end of the day. He's gonna blow up the combine. I'm calling a 4.65-4.75 forty.

I don't know about that, maybe 4.8 or 4.9 - which ain't bad for a guy that big. I don't think he even ran a 4.65 in high school when he was a tight end.

TACKLE
11-04-2012, 04:18 PM
And the more I watch Sheldon Richardson the more I think he'll be a top 15 pick at the end of the day. He's gonna blow up the combine. I'm calling a 4.65-4.75 forty.

I felt the same way coming into the season. He's only improved and got a lot more consistent which was is main issue prior to this year. He had a tough go vs. Bama but I won't hold that against him too much. I'm also buying sub 4.75 as a possibility. He's every bit as fast and probably faster than Fletcher Cox who ran sub 4.8.

Scott Wright
11-05-2012, 04:19 PM
Thanks for the reply. I was just wondering because he's saying some scouts have Mike Glennon as #1 QB on their board. I'm not really sure how I feel about that. He's got the physical tools, but I'm not sure about what he has between the ears. Just found it interesting and wondered if you knew how his reputation is.

I know there are a lot of scouts infatuated with Mike Glennon but there is a wide range of opinions on that guy. Personally, I would say that Glennon has first round physical tools but is way to inconsistent to select in round one. Day Two type for my money.

heavyduty
11-05-2012, 07:03 PM
Terrible bills pick. Manti teo has to be the pick. If we do address OT it can't be till the 3rd round earliest, we have too many needs. We missed out on Patrick Willis and Von miller by 1 pick and if we get a shot at Teo we need to take it. QB is obviously our biggest need but it seems there is no worthy remaining to be picked that high at this point.

heavyduty
11-05-2012, 07:09 PM
Say what you will about Terrance Pennington, but the Bills still haven't spent a first rounder on a tackle in all this time.

didn't we draft mike Williams out of Texas top 5 overall? He was obviously a huge bust but pretty sure he was an o-tackle

SuperMcGee
11-05-2012, 08:23 PM
didn't we draft mike Williams out of Texas top 5 overall? He was obviously a huge bust but pretty sure he was an o-tackle

I meant in all the time since Pennington was last thought about by someone on this earth. Williams was eleven years ago. Last year was close with Glenn going in the top half of the second round, but I think we can agree that need was a lot more pressing than it will be in April.

heavyduty
11-05-2012, 09:08 PM
Ya we definitely have bigger needs. QB, WR, LB, S (George Wilson should be upgraded), and even another CB in the first if the talent is there. Im not sold on Aaron Wiliams and although I would prefer a corner thru FA who has been in the league a few years, drafting another one early would not upset me if it was not a reach.

badgerbacker
11-07-2012, 04:35 PM
A random question: Scott, why do you exclude underclassmen from your rankings but include them in mock drafts? I know that you typically do an update including them once we know everybody who is declaring, but is it really that much extra work to throw them in? I understand that you'd spend your time scouting the seniors that are guaranteed to be in the draft first, but I think the rankings would be more useful if the top underclassmen were included.

Abaddon
11-07-2012, 04:45 PM
Mingo looking mighty overrated...

PossibleCabbage
11-07-2012, 05:10 PM
A random question: Scott, why do you exclude underclassmen from your rankings but include them in mock drafts? I know that you typically do an update including them once we know everybody who is declaring, but is it really that much extra work to throw them in? I understand that you'd spend your time scouting the seniors that are guaranteed to be in the draft first, but I think the rankings would be more useful if the top underclassmen were included.

I would think that it's a lot easier to add the underclassmen who do declare to the rankings than to try to include all of the underclassmen on there and remove the ones who don't declare.

I mean, there are often surprising declarations and lack of declarations. It's more important that the rankings be useful and informative during draft season than it is during college football season.

Scott Wright
11-07-2012, 07:06 PM
A random question: Scott, why do you exclude underclassmen from your rankings but include them in mock drafts? I know that you typically do an update including them once we know everybody who is declaring, but is it really that much extra work to throw them in? I understand that you'd spend your time scouting the seniors that are guaranteed to be in the draft first, but I think the rankings would be more useful if the top underclassmen were included.

A couple of reasons.

The first is simply that I haven't done enough work on many of the underclassmen to feel comfortable putting them in the rankings this early. There are hundreds upon hundreds of seniors to focus on, which keeps me plenty busy. I also don't want a prospect to see my ranking, which would be based on limited exposure, and make a career / life decision based on that. Secondly, how do you distinguish where to draw the line? Do I include just the top thirty underclassmen? The top fifty? The top hundred? The top three hundred? Ultimately I feel like the mock draft does a good enough job of identifying the top underclassmen at this point in the process and then as you mentioned once guys declare I do more in-depth with the rankings.

Cardinal96
11-08-2012, 03:49 PM
Just posted the second mock draft of the year and there were a lot of big changes!

2013 Mock Draft - v.2.0
http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php

As always constructive criticism is not only welcomed but encouraged. However, please be sure to explain the reasoning behind your opinions like I do in the mock or risk being infracted.

Let's keep this thread fun and informative!

Now... FIRE AWAY! :)

Great job. Love the writeup. As a Colt fan I would be thrilled to get Manti Teo in the first round. I think he will be great in the NFL. Unfortunately (or, technically, fortunately), we won't be drafting at the 9 spot in the 1st round. I am feeling 9-7 this year.

Iamcanadian
11-09-2012, 07:37 AM
Say what you will about Terrance Pennington, but the Bills still haven't spent a first rounder on a tackle in all this time. I'm going to guess (I actually know for a fact) that we argued against a tackle because we still had a stud LT in those days and didn't see the need to spend a top-half of the first round pick on a right tackle. Sounds about like the situation we could be looking at, right now.

RT is the most unsure of our positions on the line, but the need does not come close to matching, oh, any other position outside of running back. I support the idea of having two very good tackles. Joeckel is darn good and I'm not guaranteeing anything about Cordy Glenn, who has played 3.5 NFL games. But I just don't see this pick. I can see this regime or, should it come to it, a different one bringing in a tackle with a decently valuable pick, depending on how Pears finishes the year, but not nearly this high.

I disagree, the OL is still the great weakness on this team and Joeckel is a top 5 talent. Glenn is far more suited to play RT and with a pair of bookend OT's, we would be set up for years to come, with one of the best OL's in the NFL.

essential
11-09-2012, 10:36 PM
I disagree, the OL is still the great weakness on this team and Joeckel is a top 5 talent. Glenn is far more suited to play RT and with a pair of bookend OT's, we would be set up for years to come, with one of the best OL's in the NFL.

Nix this morning on WGR literally said we are "set at several key positions" and named DE, LT, and CB specifically, so that if we needed to trade up to get a QB we wanted, we could do it this year, whereas in years past we were not in a position to give up any picks when we had so many needs. Glenn is the LT, and he's playing extremely well, deal with it. And we are drafting a QB this year for sure, Nix flat out said that as well ... and it will be in the first, whether are not Scott gives us one, the Bills will likely to taking one.

http://blogs.buffalonews.com/press-coverage/2012/11/buddy-nix-on-drafting-qb-bills-need-to-address-it-this-year.html

"Let me be as honest as I can," Nix said this morning. "I think we really need to address it this year. The thing we can't do is you can't create one. You can't go out, thinking 'I've got to make this guy a player.' If you do, then you're going to be in a bigger mess. We don't want to do that. We try to guard against that.

"But we do need another one, and we need to do it this time."

GatorsBullsFan
11-09-2012, 11:10 PM
I would like a update for the Jaguars

Scott Wright
11-10-2012, 02:36 PM
Nix this morning on WGR literally said we are "set at several key positions" and named DE, LT, and CB specifically, so that if we needed to trade up to get a QB we wanted, we could do it this year, whereas in years past we were not in a position to give up any picks when we had so many needs. Glenn is the LT, and he's playing extremely well, deal with it. And we are drafting a QB this year for sure, Nix flat out said that as well ... and it will be in the first, whether are not Scott gives us one, the Bills will likely to taking one.

http://blogs.buffalonews.com/press-coverage/2012/11/buddy-nix-on-drafting-qb-bills-need-to-address-it-this-year.html

Because all decision makers already know what they are doing on Draft Day even though their teams season is only half over. Plus they've never, ever been known to tell a lie or mislead...

I've never said the Bills are definitely taking an offensive tackle in round one. A statement like that would be absolutely absurd for any team / position at this point in the process unless there is an Andrew Luck type of talent available, which there isn't. Plus I am as big of a Cordy Glenn fan as anyone. However, it would be just as ridiculous to rule out a position for a team as bad as the Bills. For all we know it may not even be Nix's decision to make after such a bad season.