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jbombul
04-01-2007, 06:11 PM
since 2001 i have compiled all the first round linebackers and defensive ends together to see how they played their rookie seasons. i found the results surprising. here is the research i have done take it how you want to
*note*- i only did linebackers and defensive ends who were suited for the traditional 4-3 the defense that detroit runs just to get an idea
linebackers
2001-
carolina pick 11- dan morgan
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
11 67 45.0 22 1 1 10 10.0 10 0 1

2002-
oakland pick 23- napoleon harris
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 81 59.0 22 0.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 2

st.louis pick 31- robert thomas
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 36 33.0 3 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 2


2003-
arizona pick 18- calvin pace
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 32 25.0 7 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 0

green bay pick 29- nick barnett

G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 112 86.0 26 2 3 21 7.0 14 0 3

2004-
new york jets pick 12- jonathon vilma
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 107 77.0 30 2 3 58 19.3 38 1 2

denver pick 17- d.j. williams
16 114 81.0 33 2 1 10 10.0 10 0 6

2005-
carolina pick 14- thomas davis
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 38 31.0 7 1.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 0

kansas city pick 15- derrick johnson
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 95 79.0 16 2 0 0 0.0 0 0 5

cincinatti pick 17- david pollack
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
14 28 22.0 6 4.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

2006-
green bay pick 5- a.j. hawk
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 119 82.0 37 3.5 2 31 15.5 25 0 6

detroit pick 9- ernie sims
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 124 81.0 43 0.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

minny pick 15- chad greenway
DNP injured rookie year

Defensive ends-

2001-
cincinatti pick 4- justin smith
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 53 41.0 12 8.5 2 28 14.0 21 0 3

san fran pick 7- andre carter
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 46 39.0 7 6.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 2

green bay pick 10- jamal reynolds

no stats on nfl.com but i remember they werent that good
2002-
carolina pick 2- julius peppers
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
12 35 28.0 7 12 1 21 21.0 21 0 4

indy pick 11- dwight freeney
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 41 40.0 1 13 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

new york jets pick 22- byron thomas
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 9 5.0 4 0.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 0

new orleans pick 25- charles grant
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 37 30.0 7 7 0 0 0.0 0 0 4

2003-
chicago pick 14- michael haynes
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 21 17.0 4 2 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

phily pick 15- jerome mcdougale
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
8 9 5.0 4 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

oakland pick 32- tyler brayton
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 61 48.0 13 2.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1


2004-
new orleans pick 18- will smith
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 40 30.0 10 7.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 2

minny pick 20- kenedi udezhe
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 36 25.0 11 5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

2005-
minny pick 18- erasmus james
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 28 23.0 5 4 0 0 0.0 0 0 2

2006- *mario williams played in a 3-4*
kc pick 20- tambi hali
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 58 41.0 17 8 1 -9 -9.0 -9 0 1

new york giants pick 32- mattiahas kiwinuka
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 53 44.0 9 4 2 44 22.0 32 0 2


interesting notes-

*to me it looks like the higher picked defensive ends had a bigger impact then the higher picked linebackers.

* on average the linebackers averaged 79.4 tackles and the defensive ends averaged 5.75 sacks

thoughts? it took me quite a long time to compile all of this stuff so input is appreciated thanx guys

TacticaLion
04-01-2007, 06:32 PM
since 2001 i have compiled all the first round linebackers and defensive ends together to see how they played their rookie seasons. i found the results surprising. here is the research i have done take it how you want to
*note*- i only did linebackers and defensive ends who were suited for the traditional 4-3 the defense that detroit runs just to get an idea
linebackers
2001-
carolina pick 11- dan morgan
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
11 67 45.0 22 1 1 10 10.0 10 0 1

2002-
oakland pick 23- napoleon harris
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 81 59.0 22 0.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 2

st.louis pick 31- robert thomas
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 36 33.0 3 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 2


2003-
arizona pick 18- calvin pace
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 32 25.0 7 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 0

green bay pick 29- nick barnett

G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 112 86.0 26 2 3 21 7.0 14 0 3

2004-
new york jets pick 12- jonathon vilma
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 107 77.0 30 2 3 58 19.3 38 1 2

denver pick 17- d.j. williams
16 114 81.0 33 2 1 10 10.0 10 0 6

2005-
carolina pick 14- thomas davis
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 38 31.0 7 1.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 0

kansas city pick 15- derrick johnson
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 95 79.0 16 2 0 0 0.0 0 0 5

cincinatti pick 17- david pollack
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
14 28 22.0 6 4.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

2006-
green bay pick 5- a.j. hawk
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 119 82.0 37 3.5 2 31 15.5 25 0 6

detroit pick 9- ernie sims
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 124 81.0 43 0.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

minny pick 15- chad greenway
DNP injured rookie year

Defensive ends-

2001-
cincinatti pick 4- justin smith
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 53 41.0 12 8.5 2 28 14.0 21 0 3

san fran pick 7- andre carter
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 46 39.0 7 6.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 2

green bay pick 10- jamal reynolds

no stats on nfl.com but i remember they werent that good
2002-
carolina pick 2- julius peppers
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
12 35 28.0 7 12 1 21 21.0 21 0 4

indy pick 11- dwight freeney
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 41 40.0 1 13 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

new york jets pick 22- byron thomas
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 9 5.0 4 0.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 0

new orleans pick 25- charles grant
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 37 30.0 7 7 0 0 0.0 0 0 4

2003-
chicago pick 14- michael haynes
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 21 17.0 4 2 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

phily pick 15- jerome mcdougale
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
8 9 5.0 4 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

oakland pick 32- tyler brayton
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 61 48.0 13 2.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1


2004-
new orleans pick 18- will smith
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 40 30.0 10 7.5 0 0 0.0 0 0 2

minny pick 20- kenedi udezhe
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 36 25.0 11 5 0 0 0.0 0 0 1

2005-
minny pick 18- erasmus james
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
15 28 23.0 5 4 0 0 0.0 0 0 2

2006- *mario williams played in a 3-4*
kc pick 20- tambi hali
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 58 41.0 17 8 1 -9 -9.0 -9 0 1

new york giants pick 32- mattiahas kiwinuka
G Total Tkl Ast Sacks Int Yds Avg Lg TD Pass Def
16 53 44.0 9 4 2 44 22.0 32 0 2


interesting notes-

*to me it looks like the higher picked defensive ends had a bigger impact then the higher picked linebackers.

* on average the linebackers averaged 79.4 tackles and the defensive ends averaged 5.75 sacks

thoughts? it took me quite a long time to compile all of this stuff so input is appreciated thanx guysInteresting... to say the least. (Note: it's a bit hard to read. Getting rid of other stats might make it easier. Other than that, interesting.) Great work/contribution.

I think that Gaines Adams would have better stats as a rookie (with the Lions) than Patrick Willis would. Gaines would be on a line with SRogers, CRedding and White... and his only job would be to rush the passer, something he excels in.

As Adams would have better stats, I think Willis would have a much bigger impact (yes, there's a difference). Willis would disrupt a lot of plays and take the inside away... which would force the offense to adjust (he wont get stats for that, but it's almost more impressive).

The offense can try to play away from Willis, but can't really avoid a pass-rush from Adams, Rogers, Redding and White/Edwards... which is why Willis would have a bigger impact but Adams would have better stats.

In other words: stats can be deceiving... but I'd take either one. Of course I'd prefer Willis and Spencer/Abiamiri over Adams and Beason/Harris, but both scenarios are great.

familyguy555
04-01-2007, 07:44 PM
great job jbombul. And Tactica I agree with you. It's kind of a win-win situation Willis or Adams.

detroit4life
04-01-2007, 08:48 PM
i'd take either two with a smile haha both brings different things to this team and both would help a lot i think it just depends where we trade down if we trade down

TacticaLion
04-01-2007, 09:06 PM
i'd take either two with a smile haha both brings different things to this team and both would help a lot i think it just depends where we trade down if we trade down

True... I think it depends more on who the coaches believe will be available later in the draft (more than where they trade down to). If they'll take one at #4, why not take the other?

A reach is a reach... but if they believe Abiamiri/Spencer/Bazuin can give them the pass-rush they need, Willis should be the pick. If they believe Beason/Harris/Siler can be the leader and prescence in the middle, Gaines Adams should be the pick. And, if they feel that Beason and Bazuin (or Abiamiri and Harris) can give them both in later rounds, they should trade down and take another top-notch player in round 1.

Either way, it's about filling the most important holes with the best players available. If they focus on doing that, we'll be in great shape.

jbombul
04-01-2007, 09:55 PM
i agree with the win win situation. either way u slice the cake, we are getting an impact defensive rookie which is exactly what we need

Addict
04-02-2007, 12:19 PM
i agree with the win win situation. either way u slice the cake, we are getting an impact defensive rookie which is exactly what we need

past achievements are no guarantee for the future my friend.

In other words, you can't say a guy will be a succes judging for other guys, they're all different prospects. I like Willis a whole lot more than Adams, so I definately think he should be the pick if we manage to trade down, but I don't think you can say 'either way we'll get an impact rookie' because they are all different prospects, so you can't compare them really.