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View Full Version : Two-rounder with very detailed analysis for round one


MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 03:02 AM
The order was generated using the ESPN playoff machine. All comments, concerns and criticisms are welcomed.

1.Philadelphia Geno Smith, West Virginia QB

Somehow, it just seems inevitable that the Eagles are going to lose the rest of their games, and it is certainly inevitable that Andy Reid won’t be back on the sidelines in 2013. Whoever takes Reid’s post will almost certainly want his guy to build an offense around. Nick Foles hasn’t been awful, but it isn’t apparent in the slightest that he is going to develop into an elite QB.

The 2013 QB class is about as fluid as any I can remember at this point in the season, but my money is on Smith to emerge as the clear front-runner come April. While he doesn’t really wow you in any one area, it’s hard to find too many areas of the game where he is severely limited either. He is significantly above average in terms of arm strength and accuracy, shows excellent poise in the pocket and is mobile enough to buy extra time.

Smith will clearly need work on his five and seven-step drops from under center, but these days, that’s more the norm than the exception. How Smith performs talking football with coaches during the pre-draft process will play a big role in whether he separates from the other QBs in this class or simply falls back to the pack.

2. Oakland Jarvis Jones, Georgia OLB

The Raiders stink, and it might seem like they need a new QB at a projected 3-13, but Carson Palmer is the least of the Silver and Black’s concerns. He is quietly putting up solid numbers this season playing in a mess of an organization.

Oakland’s biggest issues come on defense, where they rank 28th in yards allowed and dead last in points allowed. There are three players in the NFL who have generated more sacks than the Silver and Black’s 14. Let that sink in for a moment.

The 2013 class is loaded with excellent pass rushing prospects, but in my eyes, two stand out above the rest. Jarvis Jones and Damontre Moore. I am projecting Jones here, because he has a slightly more impressive overall body of work and I expect him to work out better than Moore. Jones is a terror as a pure rusher, dominating the SEC for two whole seasons now, but there are potentially major health questions with him. Jones left USC after not getting cleared by their doctors due to a form of spinal stenosis. The medical checks for Jones in Indy will have major ramifications on the top of the draft.

3. Kansas City Manti Te’o, Notre Dame ILB

It has been perhaps the worst season in franchise history for KC, just as it appeared the organization was on the right track. The recent Jovan Belcher situation has put the Chiefs’ on-field woes into a bit of perspective, but make no mistake, this is an organization in desperate need of a top-down overhaul.

This pick isn’t likely to please the many Chiefs’ diehards on this forum, but ultimately, any of the remaining QBs in this draft seem like a huge reach. Whoever takes over decision-making duties in Kansas City would to take a long look at the recent history of QBs who were deemed reaches. It is not pretty.

Few prospects in recent memory have helped themselves by returning for their senior seasons as much as Te’o. This is Te’o’s first season at ND with no lingering injury concerns, and he has shown why he was such a highly-coveted prospect coming out of high school. Te’o had zero career interceptions coming into the season and has now picked off an absurd seven passes, with each coming at a seemingly critical juncture of the game.

Derrick Johnson is excellent, but the Chiefs have very little outside of him at the position. Should the Chiefs return to a 4-3 base defense, Johnson could switch to his more natural weakside position, while Te’o mans the middle.

4. Jacksonville Damontre Moore, Texas A&M DE

In a league full of great defenders, Moore might be the very best. Playing in the brutal SEC West, Moore has managed to lead the nation in both sacks and TFLs.

Unlike Jones, Moore will be looked at as both an OLB prospect as well as a DE prospect, and he has experience at both. While not enormously explosive, Moore has a good first step and a solid arsenal of pass rush moves that he executes playing with a very high motor. He is actually better against the run than Jones as well.

As for the Jags, they’ve needed to upgrade their pass rush for years. They tried vainly with additions like Aaron Kampman and Andre Branch after flopping spectacularly with Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves in the 2008 draft. None of it has worked, and as a result, the Jags are dead last in sacking the QB (13) and don’t have a single player with more than two sacks.

The Jags are just as much a mess at the QB position, but I believe whoever takes over for GM Gene after the season will opt to take an elite pass rusher over an average QB.

5. Carolina Star Lotulelei, Utah DT

Few starting situations are as strikingly bleak as the Panthers’ DT lineup. Don’t adjust your eyes, that is really Dwan Edwards and Sione Fua at the top of the depth chart.

That is simply not going to cut it for a team in a division where all of their opponents like to run the ball. That is why Lotulelei to Carolina seems like one of the more logical fits in the 2013 draft. Lotulelei came back to school after not getting the grade he wanted from the draft advisory committee last December, yet he was one of the clear top ten prospects coming into this season. I’m guessing scouts finally got a hold of some tape and realized Lotulelei was a 330-pound manchild capable of dominating as both a one-gap penetrator and a power pig nose tackle.

6. Jets Keenan Allen, California WR

One of the clear reaches of the first round, the Jets take one last chance to make the whole Mark Sanchez thing work out by giving the top receiver of a lean crop.

It is clear to just about everybody that Mark Sanchez is not the franchise QB it appeared he might become after some success early in his career, but the Jets have too much invested in him now, and the pool of QBs available is just too average for them to move on just yet.

Allen is clearly a quality prospect with mid-level No. 1 potential. In a corps that includes Stephen Hill, Chaz Schillens, Jeremy Kerley and the NFL’s version of J.R. Rider in Santonio Holmes, Allen clearly represents an upgrade. The big question is, with all the other big areas of concern, can the Jets take a player like Allen this high? At this point, I don’t like their other options.

7. Cleveland Bjoern Werner, Florida State DE

Believe it or not, the Jets actually reached on Allen one pick before Mike Holmgren was set to reach on Allen himself, so the Browns take the next best course of action and add the best pass rusher left to an already stout defense.

The Germanator was an intriguing prospect coming into this year, and has turned into a bona fide elite prospect with several big-time performances, highlighted by a 3.5 sack explosion against Florida. Werner is a technician with an array of pass rush moves. I also expect Werner to work out surprisingly well, further increasing his value.

8. Arizona Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M OT

Another QB-needy team passes on a QB, but at this point who could blame Arizona.

The Cards have been looking to upgrade their O line for years and have never been able to find the one man they need to protect their franchise’s blind side, and at this point, Joeckel is a steal.

Joeckel has really turned heads in his first year in the SEC, turning away some of the country’s best athletes consistently. By this year’s tape, Joeckel has the makings of a ten-year franchise LT, and it is actually hard to see him fall this far. I’m sure A&M’s practices are full of scouts in attendance to watch Joeckel and fellow Aggie OT Jake Matthews compete against Moore.

9. Tennessee Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State DT

The Titans have some nice undersized, blue-collar DTs, but that hasn’t stopped them from being run on at will, ranking 27th in the league against the run.

Hankins has under tackle athleticism in a nose tackle’s body. Hankins’ size, agility and motor had him challenging Lotulelei for the top DT spot early in the year, but nagging injuries have curtailed his production to the point where catching Star doesn’t seem realistic. Still, guys with Hankins measurable don’t tend to last long, especially if there are no concerns about his production and effort.

10. St. Louis Taylor Lewan, Michigan OT

You can’t fault the Rams for their effort, but they have just not found the guy to protect injury-plagued Sam Bradford’s blind side. After taking uber-bust Jason Smith second overall in 2009, the Rams used the first pick in the second round of the 2010 draft on Rodger Saffold.

Smith is no longer with the team, and Saffold has struggled at LT and appears destined for a postion change. Lewan offers ideal size and length for a blindside protector, checking in at over 6-7. Lewan plays with a nasty demeanor, sometimes too nasty.

On the downside, Lewan doesn’t have elite feet and might get abused by speed. He also doesn’t consistently play with proper leverage and tries to overpower too many opponents.

11. Dallas Sheldon Richardson, Missouri DE

Is there a team in the NFL that consistently does less with more than the Dallas Cowboys? Every year it seems they are one or two pieces away from being elite, and every year the whole does not match the sum of its parts.

Regardless, this year’s team has needs in a few key areas, and one is the five technique. It will be interesting to see how much they like last year’s third-round pick Tyrone Crawford. Surprisingly, he is yet to beat out the pedestrian Marcus Spears and Jason Hatcher.

Richardson is one of the current hot prospects in the draft. Although mainly viewed as a one-gap DT, I think Richardson is clearly capable of making the transition to a two-gap system. He can always fall back on his program pedigree, as fellow Mizzou alum Ziggy Hood has successfully made the same transition.

12. Buffalo Tyler Wilson, Arkansas QB

Finally, the QB freefall ends. Ralph Wilson has come out publicly and said the QB situation needs to be addressed. And Buddy Nix loves his southern good ole’ boys, so Tyler Wilson gets the nod over Matt Barkley and others.

I feel a bit uneasy mocking Wilson this high after spending all offseason telling anyone who would listen how overrated Wilson was and how much his stock would plummet after Bobby Petrino got canned and Arkansas proceeded to have an awful season.

And I was looking good on that front for a while. The Hogs did indeed suck a fattie this year, and Wilson’s stock did seem to cool off for a while. But something funny happened. Nobody stepped up to fill the void of Wilson as an upper-level prospect at the QB postion.

In the end, I can definitely see Wilson go in the first round, but I still don’t agree with it. I really don’t dislike anything about him, but he just has never given me that warm, fuzzy feeling either. I kind of have the same feeling about him as I did when Mark Sanchez was in the draft. He’s just always going to be a guy at best, never the guy.

13. Miami Jonathan Banks, Mississippi State CB

Give some coach of the year consideration to Joe Philbin after making one of the worst rosters in the league a respectable, dangerous out each and every week.

Ryan Tannehill is playing better than I ever could have guessed, the running game is solid and the defense has performed above its talent level. That being said, there are still major holes in this roster, and one of the most glaring is at CB.

After trading problem child Vontae Davis to Indy, the Phins are left without a real No. 1 CB. Banks can certainly help in that respect. One of my favorite prospects in this year’s class, Banks is similar in many ways to last year’s top corner Morris Claiborne except for two key differences. One, he tackles. And two, he is actually smarter than a lamp post.

And come on, he returned two Tim Tebow passes for touchdowns as a freshman. How can you not say this guy’s a baller?!

14. New Orleans Dion Jordan, Oregon DE

The Saints have neglected the pass rush for ages and it has finally caught up to them. Their defense is now so inept, they are now forcing Drew Brees to make mistakes just trying to keep them in the game.

Jordan has emerged this season as a legitimate first round prospect thanks to his freakinsh blend of size, length and explosiveness. At 6-7, he can be great at patrolling the edges on running downs, but he excels at getting to the QB. More raw than some edge rushers in this class, Jordan will likely be limited to a situational role his rookie year.

15. Detroit Dee Milliner, Alabama CB

Living in Michigan, I can tell you the secondary has been biggest source of fan distress for about the last four years. Everyone wanted Prince Amukara in 2011, everyone was pissed when they selected Ryan Broyles in April even though they came back to draft Bill Bentley in third.

The secondary has actually not been horrible this season, but they haven’t made many plays either. Milliner should win the Thorpe Award this season after a remarkable junior campaign. Saban spends most of his time at practice with the defensive backs, so you this guy is well-trained. Alabama runs a greater variety of coverage schemes than most college teams, so Milliner’s transition doesn’t figure to be as steep at a position where most rookies struggle.

16. Minnesota Barkevious Mingo, LSU DE

The Vikings are definitely solid at DE, so this isn’t as much a need pick as a value pick.

GM Rick Spielman loves physical specimans, so there is no doubt he will have a lot of interest in Kiki, whose stock has cooled from the elite status he held coming off a remarkable sophomore campaign. Mingo will not be asked to do much early on. See QB, get QB.

17. San Diego Eric Fisher, Central Michigan OT

Fisher has emerged from seemingly nowehere to become a bona fide first round prospect this year after terrific performances in the Chippewas non-conference schedule, which he maintained throughout the year.

The Chargers have struggled at LT since Marcus McNeil left and the Jared Gaither experiment hasn’t worked out. Phillip Rivers has likewise gone from one of the elite QBs in the league to average since his protection has diminished.

18. Chicago Chance Warmack, Alabama OG

I can’t believe my projections don’t have the Bears making the playoffs.

Anyways, the Bears projected choke job might cost Lovie Smith his job, and the Bears’ inability to protect Jay Cutler will likely be the main culprit. Since there really isn’t a first round LT prospect available, Chicago does the next best thing and takes perhaps the best offensive line prospect in the draft in Warmack.

I really love everything about Warmack and think he is one of the six or seven best players in the country, but as we saw with David DeCastro last year, guards always slide.

19. Tampa Bay Sylvester Williams, North Carolina DT

The Bucs have had a surprisingly good season and Josh Freeman has alleviated any concerns that he might not be the franchise QB everyone thought he was following his breakout sophomore season in 2010.

One area of disappointment though has to the interior of the defensive line. Gerald McCoy has not blossomed into the star he was projected to be, and outside of him, there is nothing to get excited about. Williams is a true stud, capable of playing either the under or over position in Tampa’s front. He could also be looked at at NT in a 3-4.

20. Cincinnati Sam Montgomery, LSU DE

The Bengals surprisingly lead the league in sacks despite inconsistency from both Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap. Montgomery is a terrific all-around player who has followed up a brilliant sophomore season with a slightly disappointing 2012.

Montgomery might not have the athleticism of a Mingo, but he is lightning quick with a ferocious disposition. Any DE for the Bengals will have the luxury of playing next to Geno Atkins, one of the league’s best at his position.

21. Giants David Amerson, N.C. State S

Jerry Reese loves big defenders, and the 6-3 ballhawking Amerson fits the bill.

It is clear to me the Amerson’s best fit at the next level will be at S, and the Giants have already had success transitioning one tight-hipped CB to S in Antrel Rolle, so they are likely to see the value here. Wherever Amerson winds up his knack for creating turnovers will be a welcome addition in a league where turnovers usually tell the story.

22. Seattle Terrance Williams, Baylor WR

With so many of the other top WR prospects having disappointing seasons, the breakout of Williams has been a breath of fresh air.

Williams has made a brilliant transition to the role of No. 1 WR this season and has shown a consistent ability to beat coverages designed to stop him. With Golden Tate as a No. 2, this is a clear area of need for the Seahawks.

23. Pittsburgh Jordan Poyer, Oregon State CB

The Steelers have built their defense through the years on getting to the QB. When that hasn’t worked, they’ve often been outmanned on the edges.

I’m not sure whether or not Poyer is a solid first round prospect due to just average physical tools, but he has sure played like a first rounder this season. Regardless, I think it is about time the Steelers got serious about covering the back end.

24. Indianapolis John Jenkins, Georgia DT

Not to be lost on the Colts’ remarkable ascendency this season is that the transition is not complete.

The Colts are without a true NT at this point, an absolute must for Chuck Pagano’s defense to be truly dominant. Jenkins is a mammoth of a man at close to 350 pounds, and he has some athleticism to go with it. He is not dominant on a down-in, down-out basis, which is why he falls in a NT-rich draft, but he has all the ability to be the centerpiece of an excellent defense.

25. St. Louis* Eric Reid, LSU S

Jeff Fischer has done an excellent job as you would expect in his first year at the helm, but years of mismanagement have left the Rams scrambling in the defensive backfield.

Like most LSU prospects, Reid was better in 2011 than he has been in 2012, but he is an aggressive, consistent defender who flashes occasional big-play instincts. A little on the thin side, it might help Reid to put on a little muscle so he can become an effective inside-the-box presence at the next level.

26. San Francisco Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina OG

As a Buckeye fan, I am honestly shocked Alex Boone has a starting job in the NFL, much less for a team that is good at running the ball.

Cooper is not all that far off from Warmack as a prospect, but I doubt his draft ceiling is much higher than this due to positional value. Cooper is one of the more athletic guard prospects you’ll ever find and he also has the requisite toughness to play for a smash mouth team like the Niners.

27. Denver Xavier Rhodes, Florida State CB

Champ Bailey can’t play forever, and the Broncos depth at CB leaved much to be desired.

Rhodes has been a fixture of early round projections for a couple years now. He should test very well, and while he hasn’t always played up to his billing, he certainly has enough good film to warrant a late first round selection. My biggest concern with Rhodes is a little tightness which could cause him to get exposed in man situations.

28. Baltimore Matt Elam, Florida S

The Ravens are a very well-run organization who are consistently a very tough team to project, given that they have very few holes.

Thinking to the future, Ed Reed might not be around much longer, and it wouldn’t be the worst idea to start thinking of a replacement to groom. Elam doesn’t have great measurable, but he is a great player. A good tackler, sound in coverage, with terrific instincts around the ball, Elam demonstrates a lot of the characteristics of the future Hall of Famer.

29. New England Kenny Vaccaro, Texas S

The Pats are another team I can rarely figure out. I gave the Vaccaro, because he seems like a good value and the type of player that would fit the Patriot model.

With Devin McCourty now at safety full-time, I think Vaccaro would provide excellent competition to 2012 reach Tavon Wilson at FS.

30. Atlanta Zach Ertz, Stanford TE

Tony Gonzalez is probably gone after this year, and even if he isn’t TE has to be a big area of concern for the Falcons.

Ertz has flourished in the absence, and has, IMO, wrestled the top TE prospect ranking away from Tyler Eifert. Helping Ertz’s cause, he comes from a system similar the one they run in Atlanta, which should give him an edge over the spread TEs.

31. Green Bay Giovani Bernard, North Carolina RB

The Packers’ RB situation might be the worst in the league, and while their offense is just fine with a host of average backs, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to have playmaker as dynamic as Bernard in the backfield.

Bernard is a great fit in the Packers offense, because he is a great receiver out of the backfield and doesn’t require a lot of touches. This season, he only carried the ball 182 times with a whopping 6.7 yards per carry.

32. Houston Justin Hunter, Tennessee WR

Houston has long been looking for a legitimate second option in the passing game, and if Hunter can play up to his talent, he could certainly be that guy.

Like the Volunteers as a whole, Hunter’s season has been one of unmet expectations. The numbers aren’t bad, but he hasn’t always left the impression that is worthy of a high pick. Still, playing off the coverages rolled to Andre, at his best, Hunter represents a greater threat than anyone else on Houston’s current roster.








33. Cincinnati* Tavon Austin, West Virginia ATH
34. Kansas City Zac Dysert, Miami U QB
35. Jacksonville E.J. Manuel, Florida State QB
36. Philadelphia Dallas Thomas, Tennessee OT
37. Carolina Alex Okafor, Texas DE
38. Jets Barrett Jones, Alabama OL
39. Arizona Matt Barkley, USC QB
40. Tennessee Corey Lemonier, Auburn DE
41. St. Louis Arthur Brown, Kansas State OLB
42. Miami Aaron Dobson, Marshall WR
43. Detroit Shawn Williams, Georgia S
44. Minnesota Nickell Robey, USC CB
45. Buffalo D.J. Fluker, Alabama OT
46. Dallas Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame TE
47. Chicago Sharrif Floyd, Florida DT
48. San Diego Alec Ogletree, Georgia ILB
49. Tampa Bay Desmond Trufant, Washington CB
50. Cincinnati Le’veon Bell, Michigan State RB
51. Giants Tank Carradine, Florida State DE
52. Pittsburgh Chase Thomas, Stanford LB
53. Seattle Kawann Short, Purdue DT
54. Miami* John Simon, Ohio State DE
55. Washington Robert Woods, USC WR
56. San Francisco Jamar Taylor, Boise State CB
57. Denver Datone Jones, UCLA DE
58. Baltimore Anthony Barr, UCLA OLB
59. New England DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson WR
60. Atlanta Larry Warford, Kentucky OG
61. Green Bay Jonathan Bostic, Florida ILB
62. Houston Robert Lester, Alabama S

KCStud
12-05-2012, 03:05 AM
Kansas City absolutely has to take a QB and it will be Tyler Wilson if Geno Smith is gone.
Te'o is a wasted pick that high IMO. An ILB won't change the game that much to warrant a pick that high.

It's QB or bust for the Chiefs this April.

Razor
12-05-2012, 04:23 AM
Kenny Vaccaro is a player that I like, but I don't see the Patriots taking him. Especially in the first round. We have pretty good depth at safety with McCourty being moved there, Gregory playing well and Wilson showing a lot of promise. What the defense really needs is better and more consistent play from the DL. Corey Lemonier would be my favorite selection there, although Tank Carradine, Justin Hunter, Tavon Wilson and Barrett Jones are all viable options there. Kawann Short and Louis Nix III would also have to be considered, and Nix especially since I think he'll fit in very well in NE alongside Wilfork.

DeAndre Hopkins in the second is a good pick. I'm not quite sure about his route running and football IQ, but his ability to create yards after the catch will have the Patriots considering him.

Besides Patriots related stuff, I really think you're undervaluing Alec Ogletree. If he declares I fully expect him to be a top 20 selection. His size, athleticism and abilities in coverage will make him a coveted prospect.

farfromforgotten
12-05-2012, 05:40 AM
Kansas City absolutely has to take a QB and it will be Tyler Wilson if Geno Smith is gone.
Te'o is a wasted pick that high IMO. An ILB won't change the game that much to warrant a pick that high.

It's QB or bust for the Chiefs this April.

Yeah, I agree with this for the Chiefs. They have seemingly done a good job of drafting the perceived "bpa" over "questionable" QB prospects for a long time now... and where has that got them? There are enough QB prospects in this draft that a few of them will begin to separate themselves from the pack. I like Smith and Wilson best as of right now.

The last QB the Chiefs spent a 1st round pick on was Todd Blackledge... class of 1983...

On to my favorite team, the 49ers: while it might be surprising to you that Alex Boone is starting for us this year at OG it is going to be an even bigger surprise when I tell you that he has done an amazing job this year as a starting OG for us. We have also drafted some interior OL help in the mid-rounds the past couple of years (see Kilgore, Looney). I seriously doubt that a Guard will be the pick here. I don't know much about the CB you have mocked to us in the 2nd round.

Picks I would like to see for us in round 1 are CB (Rhodes goes right after us), maybe even one of the TE prospects (Eifert or Ertz, Walker has been disappointing this year), or an OLB for rotation/depth. It is hard to mock for this team right now since we don't seem to have many holes.

+rep for the write up at this point and not just listing the teams and players.

CJSchneider
12-05-2012, 07:11 AM
I'm strangely not a Dion Jordan fan, but your NO analysis is very accurate.

Phins827
12-05-2012, 07:13 AM
Love love love Miami's draft. Perfect

Don Vito
12-05-2012, 08:13 AM
I doubt the Pats look at a safety that early with McCourty back there along with Gregory, Wilson, and maybe Chung. Hopkins is a nice pickup in the second.

Johnthan Banks is not as physical as people make him out to be, and I really question if a lot of people watched him at all this year because he got toasted quite a bit. Was getting picked on by the end of the season, played pretty miserably in State's SEC games.

Smash28Dash34
12-05-2012, 08:32 AM
Why would we take a DE when we have Johnson, Hardy and Alexander? That 2nd pick needs to be a CB or S. Possibly a G or OT.

killxswitch
12-05-2012, 08:35 AM
Barkley is not going to drop to the ****ing second round.

coordinator0
12-05-2012, 09:22 AM
Baltimore's safety situation is murky. If Reed comes back like I think he will then he would probably still be the starter for another couple of seasons. That would leave Elam, or any other high pick at that position, on the bench and I'm not sure that it would be worth it in that case. Pollard doesn't need to be replaced so I don't think Elam gets in any snaps at SS either. If they were to go with a safety then Elam would be pretty much the only guy I would want in the first or second round but like I said if Reed comes back I would rather see the Ravens look to another position that can make an earlier impact on the team. DT/DE (not a guy that projects predominately as a run-stuffer), ILB, WR, and maybe OLB are all ahead of FS on my first round list. LG used to be but the OL has been looking better now that Reid has stepped in at that position.

Barr is the second round is pretty good. I like that pick a lot.

vidae
12-05-2012, 09:33 AM
Kansas City absolutely has to take a QB and it will be Tyler Wilson if Geno Smith is gone.
Te'o is a wasted pick that high IMO. An ILB won't change the game that much to warrant a pick that high.

It's QB or bust for the Chiefs this April.

Pretty much this. Passing on Wilson because it's a "reach", when he goes 12th overall, is not going to happen for KC. It just isn't.

And I don't see how the Chiefs aren't picking first anyway. They have the worst record in the league and the strength of schedule to be picking ahead of every other team.

CheeseKnuckles
12-05-2012, 09:50 AM
I am just wondering why Ertz is picked ahead of Eiefert? Reasoning?

Trogdor
12-05-2012, 10:22 AM
:facepalm:

Universal reaction from Cowboy's fans.


Defensive line has immense depth. We already have young guys forcing more playing time (Lissemore, Brent, Crawford, and Bass) and most likely they will force Coleman and Spears off the roster next season. If we go defensive line it'll be later in the draft on a project.

Second pick. Jason Witten is top 5 in receptions this year and has never relied on elite physical tools to get open and play his role so he isn't slowing down quite yet. We drafted Hannah to develop into the role last year and still have Phillips on the roster as a TE/H-back. No need for a TE at all even though this would be crazy value given that I think he goes round 1.


Our needs are as follows:
RT: Doug Free is getting released and unless Parnell plays out of his mind we'll need one in the first two rounds.

Interior line: We need at least one starter and probably two to change from being one of the worst lines into one of the better lines. Provided we draft a RT high this need can be masked a bit.

Safety: We have a talent void at safety and the injury bug showed everyone how terrible our reserves are. If a playmaker is available it would fill a need on this team that has stretched for years.

SOLB: If Anthony Spencer, currently franchised, isn't resigned we'll have a massive hole at SOLB. Wilber is not ready for the starting role and when Spencer isn't on the field our defense suffers.

Pat Sims 90
12-05-2012, 10:29 AM
1st Round is good for the Bengals. 2nd Round is bad.

phlysac
12-05-2012, 10:46 AM
26. San Francisco Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina OG

As a Buckeye fan, I am honestly shocked Alex Boone has a starting job in the NFL, much less for a team that is good at running the ball.


Then you'll be even more shocked to know that he is playing at an extremely high-level and has shown no reason whatsoever to be replaced.

Sorry. I now see that farfrom already touched on this. I just don't see G/C as being a position of value that would necessitate drafting a depth player. If the question is about a starting center and the evaluation is that the draftable prospect is clearly a better option than Daniel Kilgore (2nd year) or Joe Looney (R), then I'd understand. But targeting for guard? I just don't see it.

Cigaro
12-05-2012, 10:50 AM
Alex Okafor is a pretty bad pick. Charles Johnson is quality, Greg Hardy is having a good season, and Frank Alexander looks promising as a situational pass rusher. We don't need to pick a defensive end at all that high considering our other problems.

Diehard
12-05-2012, 11:58 AM
27. Denver Xavier Rhodes, Florida State CB

Champ Bailey canít play forever, and the Broncos depth at CB leaved much to be desired.

You don't like the play of Porter, Chris Harris and Tony Carter? I'd say that's a decent bunch of corners. Of course, they play with the benefit of a very solid pass rush. However, looking forward we're probably going to lose Porter and the jury is still out on Omar Bolden.

As for the Datone Jones in 2nd, I've got nothing against adding another impact guy to the the DL but we've got a bunch of big guys playing the DE spot already (Wolfe, Ayers, Malik Jackson) which makes working him in a little tricky.

thebow305
12-05-2012, 01:13 PM
Banks is a great pick in the 1st, but that second round is just God awful for Miami. Ogletree and Hopkins would make much more sense there.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 01:36 PM
Kansas City absolutely has to take a QB and it will be Tyler Wilson if Geno Smith is gone.
Te'o is a wasted pick that high IMO. An ILB won't change the game that much to warrant a pick that high.

It's QB or bust for the Chiefs this April.

I was thinking possibly the same thing, but in the end, I think passing on a potential franchise defender for Tyler Wilson would be a big mistake.

In this scenario, they could sign a veteran stopgap, such as Matt Moore, while they have Dysert develop and wait. Think back to the 2011 draft when both the Bengals and Niners needed a QB and passed in the first round, only to get better value in the second. It's working out well for both of them.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 01:40 PM
Kenny Vaccaro is a player that I like, but I don't see the Patriots taking him. Especially in the first round. We have pretty good depth at safety with McCourty being moved there, Gregory playing well and Wilson showing a lot of promise. What the defense really needs is better and more consistent play from the DL. Corey Lemonier would be my favorite selection there, although Tank Carradine, Justin Hunter, Tavon Wilson and Barrett Jones are all viable options there. Kawann Short and Louis Nix III would also have to be considered, and Nix especially since I think he'll fit in very well in NE alongside Wilfork.

DeAndre Hopkins in the second is a good pick. I'm not quite sure about his route running and football IQ, but his ability to create yards after the catch will have the Patriots considering him.

Besides Patriots related stuff, I really think you're undervaluing Alec Ogletree. If he declares I fully expect him to be a top 20 selection. His size, athleticism and abilities in coverage will make him a coveted prospect.

Okay, I'll take your word for it. I don't know enough about Gregory to be able to judge his play very extensively, it just seems like Vaccaro would be an upgrade over a fairly anonymous group of safeties. I probably will make a change in my next mock.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 01:51 PM
Yeah, I agree with this for the Chiefs. They have seemingly done a good job of drafting the perceived "bpa" over "questionable" QB prospects for a long time now... and where has that got them? There are enough QB prospects in this draft that a few of them will begin to separate themselves from the pack. I like Smith and Wilson best as of right now.

The last QB the Chiefs spent a 1st round pick on was Todd Blackledge... class of 1983...

On to my favorite team, the 49ers: while it might be surprising to you that Alex Boone is starting for us this year at OG it is going to be an even bigger surprise when I tell you that he has done an amazing job this year as a starting OG for us. We have also drafted some interior OL help in the mid-rounds the past couple of years (see Kilgore, Looney). I seriously doubt that a Guard will be the pick here. I don't know much about the CB you have mocked to us in the 2nd round.

Picks I would like to see for us in round 1 are CB (Rhodes goes right after us), maybe even one of the TE prospects (Eifert or Ertz, Walker has been disappointing this year), or an OLB for rotation/depth. It is hard to mock for this team right now since we don't seem to have many holes.

+rep for the write up at this point and not just listing the teams and players.

Thanks for the dap at the end. :)

As for Alex Boone, I'm glad for him that he is doing so well, though I never saw it coming. He was an uberprospect coming out of high school, but was an absolute mess off the field and a stiff on it. While I'm glad he's doing well now, I still wonder how much you can trust him going forward.

Jamar Taylor is a very smooth CB with excellent ball skills. I think he's mostly being projected in the 3rd-4th range right now. He is No. 5 if you get a hold of any Boise State tape.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 01:55 PM
Johnthan Banks is not as physical as people make him out to be, and I really question if a lot of people watched him at all this year because he got toasted quite a bit. Was getting picked on by the end of the season, played pretty miserably in State's SEC games.

Perhaps you're right. I did most of my work on Banks last year when I was anticipating him coming out, and I haven't watched a lot of him this year. Still, based on what I saw from him his first three years, he is definitely a top 15 pick.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 01:57 PM
I'm strangely not a Dion Jordan fan, but your NO analysis is very accurate.

I don't blame you for not jumping on the Jordan bandwagon. He's more specimen than stud at this point, but his arrow is ticking up, and somebody's going to fall in love with his potential.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 02:01 PM
Why would we take a DE when we have Johnson, Hardy and Alexander? That 2nd pick needs to be a CB or S. Possibly a G or OT.

Honestly, I didn't really realize how good of a season Hardy is having. And it looks like Alexander might be a keeper as well. I was thinking Okafor as kind of a BPA selection here, but I understand your grievances.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 02:07 PM
Baltimore's safety situation is murky. If Reed comes back like I think he will then he would probably still be the starter for another couple of seasons. That would leave Elam, or any other high pick at that position, on the bench and I'm not sure that it would be worth it in that case. Pollard doesn't need to be replaced so I don't think Elam gets in any snaps at SS either. If they were to go with a safety then Elam would be pretty much the only guy I would want in the first or second round but like I said if Reed comes back I would rather see the Ravens look to another position that can make an earlier impact on the team. DT/DE (not a guy that projects predominately as a run-stuffer), ILB, WR, and maybe OLB are all ahead of FS on my first round list. LG used to be but the OL has been looking better now that Reid has stepped in at that position.

Barr is the second round is pretty good. I like that pick a lot.

I know S is not a position of immediate concern, but I put together this mock under the assumption that Reed plays one more season, as he has hinted he might not be playing much longer. If Reed's situation changes, that obviously diminishes the need for S.

I could have gone with Ogletree or Mosley here, but I am just not sure about either one of them as a first rounder. The other positions you listed don't have a talent like Elam available at your point in the draft, and I know Ozzie never reaches. Under these circumstances, I could see the Ravens getting out of the first round for the second year in a row.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 02:10 PM
I am just wondering why Ertz is picked ahead of Eiefert? Reasoning?

He has been better this year. Eifert has had some big-time clunkers this season, and I question his ability in the run game.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 02:11 PM
Barkley is not going to drop to the ****ing second round.

It can happen. It really can.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 02:14 PM
:facepalm:

Universal reaction from Cowboy's fans.


Defensive line has immense depth. We already have young guys forcing more playing time (Lissemore, Brent, Crawford, and Bass) and most likely they will force Coleman and Spears off the roster next season. If we go defensive line it'll be later in the draft on a project.

Second pick. Jason Witten is top 5 in receptions this year and has never relied on elite physical tools to get open and play his role so he isn't slowing down quite yet. We drafted Hannah to develop into the role last year and still have Phillips on the roster as a TE/H-back. No need for a TE at all even though this would be crazy value given that I think he goes round 1.


Our needs are as follows:
RT: Doug Free is getting released and unless Parnell plays out of his mind we'll need one in the first two rounds.

Interior line: We need at least one starter and probably two to change from being one of the worst lines into one of the better lines. Provided we draft a RT high this need can be masked a bit.

Safety: We have a talent void at safety and the injury bug showed everyone how terrible our reserves are. If a playmaker is available it would fill a need on this team that has stretched for years.

SOLB: If Anthony Spencer, currently franchised, isn't resigned we'll have a massive hole at SOLB. Wilber is not ready for the starting role and when Spencer isn't on the field our defense suffers.

Those ends are all average, and if there's a guy of good value at 11, he instantly upgrades your rotation.

All of the other positions you have listed offer little value at 11 overall.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 02:18 PM
1st Round is good for the Bengals. 2nd Round is bad.

I like Montgomery too.

As for Austin and Bell; Austin is so dynamic and versatile I can't see him slipping much further. The Bengals may have bigger needs, but the value brings to the return game and offense would instantly make this team much more explosive.

Bell, IMO, is the best short-yardage back in the draft and would offer an excellent complement to BJGE.

coordinator0
12-05-2012, 02:36 PM
I know S is not a position of immediate concern, but I put together this mock under the assumption that Reed plays one more season, as he has hinted he might not be playing much longer. If Reed's situation changes, that obviously diminishes the need for S.

I could have gone with Ogletree or Mosley here, but I am just not sure about either one of them as a first rounder. The other positions you listed don't have a talent like Elam available at your point in the draft, and I know Ozzie never reaches. Under these circumstances, I could see the Ravens getting out of the first round for the second year in a row.

If Reed comes back for only one more season then I could see S as a good pick in the first round but I don't think he re-signs for that short of a deal (he's a free agent after this season) and I don't believe that he won't start as long as he's in a Ravens uniform. Like I said it's a tricky situation and I certainly understand why people have been mocking him and others at the position to the Ravens.

I'm in on Mosley as a pick in the first round. Ogletree not so much, at least for the Ravens. I don't like him at all inside even though what they're really missing there is coverage ability and Ogletree would do a lot in that regard. I think Arthur Brown could translate to that position well though, from what I've seen he has the instincts to play inside despite his size. At WR Justin Hunter would probably be a really nice fit on the team even if Cameron gets fired (hope so but probably not).

vidae
12-05-2012, 03:01 PM
I was thinking possibly the same thing, but in the end, I think passing on a potential franchise defender for Tyler Wilson would be a big mistake.

In this scenario, they could sign a veteran stopgap, such as Matt Moore, while they have Dysert develop and wait. Think back to the 2011 draft when both the Bengals and Niners needed a QB and passed in the first round, only to get better value in the second. It's working out well for both of them.

That only works if you think Dysert is as quality as Kaep and Dalton.

The Chiefs can't keep ignoring QBs when they're picking high. They've done that for three decades and we haven't been relevant in that time. Those are connected.

ChicagoBearsVet23
12-05-2012, 03:08 PM
No way the Bears pick that high but Warmack is a perfect fit. In the 2nd we would take Ogletree

Robcards
12-05-2012, 03:12 PM
What's with everyone mocking the one position the Jets are guaranteed NOT to draft 1st round next year? Holmes has too much guaranteed money to be let go, he is going to be back next year, and the year after most likely. Kerley is a solid slot receiver and will be in his 3rd year and also not going anywhere for 2 years. Stephen Hill is a work in progress, no one expected him to come out and be a solid #2 WR year one, he is a raw talent, which means he is also going to be given time to progress.

Are the Jets converting to some air raid offense next season where they need 4+ stud WRs? I just don't get it. Put some thought into your mocks, please.

Pat Sims 90
12-05-2012, 03:36 PM
I like Montgomery too.

As for Austin and Bell; Austin is so dynamic and versatile I can't see him slipping much further. The Bengals may have bigger needs, but the value brings to the return game and offense would instantly make this team much more explosive.

Bell, IMO, is the best short-yardage back in the draft and would offer an excellent complement to BJGE.

The Bengals already have a short slot receiver in Andrew Hawkins and they just draft Sanu and Jones last year and it is not worth taking a ST Player in the 2nd round.

The Bengals don't need a short yardage back that what BJGE is. They need a explosive back that actually run to the outside.

scar988
12-05-2012, 03:38 PM
not gonna get too into prospect rankings, but I like the TE pick in the first. Not a huge fan of the OG pick with Konz and Blalock there, but I never argue against bringing in talented offensive linemen.

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 04:19 PM
What's with everyone mocking the one position the Jets are guaranteed NOT to draft 1st round next year? Holmes has too much guaranteed money to be let go, he is going to be back next year, and the year after most likely. Kerley is a solid slot receiver and will be in his 3rd year and also not going anywhere for 2 years. Stephen Hill is a work in progress, no one expected him to come out and be a solid #2 WR year one, he is a raw talent, which means he is also going to be given time to progress.

Are the Jets converting to some air raid offense next season where they need 4+ stud WRs? I just don't get it. Put some thought into your mocks, please.

How long do you really think Holmes is going to be around?

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 04:24 PM
not gonna get too into prospect rankings, but I like the TE pick in the first. Not a huge fan of the OG pick with Konz and Blalock there, but I never argue against bringing in talented offensive linemen.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Konz drafted to replace McClure at C when he retires?

wicket
12-05-2012, 04:32 PM
He has been better this year. Eifert has had some big-time clunkers this season, and I question his ability in the run game.

this just flat out isnt true

MI_Buckeye
12-05-2012, 04:42 PM
this just flat out isnt true

Look at both of their numbers this year. Ertz has been far more productive, and Eifert has disappeared against the best defenses ND has played.

wicket
12-05-2012, 05:01 PM
Look at both of their numbers this year. Ertz has been far more productive, and Eifert has disappeared against the best defenses ND has played.

the offense changed, he did a lot more inline blocking this year but about every time ND needed a big play he was the #1 guy and that way became the leading receiver, ertz was playing a virtual wideout by comparison.

eifert had a waaaaaaaay better season this year than last year

Robcards
12-05-2012, 05:26 PM
How long do you really think Holmes is going to be around?

At least 2 years due to his contract. I already said as much. They could maybe cut ties with him before the roster bonus in Spring 2014 kicks in, but if they do then they'll draft a WR in the 1st round in 2014, not 2013.

And just to be clear, because of the large amount of money Holmes is guaranteed and how backloaded the contract is, it is such that if the Jets cut him in 2013 the penalty against the cap would be larger than keeping him on the team. At least that was the case this year, I'm pretty sure even if it isn't next year the penalty is still substantial enough to where they can't reasonably cut him.

Taber21
12-05-2012, 05:55 PM
I would hate to see the Vikings not come out of the first two rounds without a WR unless they did something big in FA, which is highly unlikely. The Jenkins/Simpson combo outside has been pathetic, aided by the terrible play of Ponder. With it seemingly going to be Ponder under center again next year, Harvin and AP need help, and there would be guys available at either pick in this scenario that could fit the bill, especially when we are taking a luxury/BPA type pick of a DE in round 1.

derza222
12-05-2012, 06:01 PM
At least 2 years due to his contract. I already said as much. They could maybe cut ties with him before the roster bonus in Spring 2014 kicks in, but if they do then they'll draft a WR in the 1st round in 2014, not 2013.

And just to be clear, because of the large amount of money Holmes is guaranteed and how backloaded the contract is, it is such that if the Jets cut him in 2013 the penalty against the cap would be larger than keeping him on the team. At least that was the case this year, I'm pretty sure even if it isn't next year the penalty is still substantial enough to where they can't reasonably cut him.

The Jets would have lost $11 million if they cut him this season. They'd save $1.25 million if they cut him next season, and $8.25 million if they cut him in 2014. So Robcards is right, he'll probably be around for at least one more season after this one.

They could use help all over the place, so there's no real need to reach for a WR. I could see the argument that Hill's not ready right now so roll with Holmes - Allen - Kerley - Hill for next year, cut Holmes, and hopefully in Hill's third year he's ready and you can go Allen - Hill - Kerley, but that really only applies if Allen's clear BPA.

Whoever's running the draft at that point should easily be able to find a OLB who's good value plus there's needs all over the place - RT, QB, RB, TE, G, and S all are weak and/or have starters heading into free agency.

Also I could care less about draft order, but the remainder of the Jets' schedule is pretty soft so I'd be surprised if they end up picking that high. Would be better for the team long-term, I just don't see it happening.

phlysac
12-05-2012, 09:49 PM
As for Alex Boone, I'm glad for him that he is doing so well, though I never saw it coming. He was an uberprospect coming out of high school, but was an absolute mess off the field and a stiff on it. While I'm glad he's doing well now, I still wonder how much you can trust him going forward.

To be fair there's a big difference between...

Ohio State - Overweight, out of shape, alcoholic playing Left Tackle.
SF 49ers - In amazing shape (diet/fitness), no longer drinks, playing Right Guard.

scar988
12-05-2012, 10:54 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Konz drafted to replace McClure at C when he retires?

no. he wasn't. Joe Hawley was drafted for that.

Robcards
12-06-2012, 01:55 AM
The Jets would have lost $11 million if they cut him this season. They'd save $1.25 million if they cut him next season, and $8.25 million if they cut him in 2014. So Robcards is right, he'll probably be around for at least one more season after this one.

They could use help all over the place, so there's no real need to reach for a WR. I could see the argument that Hill's not ready right now so roll with Holmes - Allen - Kerley - Hill for next year, cut Holmes, and hopefully in Hill's third year he's ready and you can go Allen - Hill - Kerley, but that really only applies if Allen's clear BPA.

Whoever's running the draft at that point should easily be able to find a OLB who's good value plus there's needs all over the place - RT, QB, RB, TE, G, and S all are weak and/or have starters heading into free agency.

Also I could care less about draft order, but the remainder of the Jets' schedule is pretty soft so I'd be surprised if they end up picking that high. Would be better for the team long-term, I just don't see it happening.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Jets have so many needs due to Tannenbaum trading away or selecting busts with draft picks over the years, I'm seriously going to have a party when he gets fired.

Bengals78
12-06-2012, 06:28 AM
I like Montgomery too.

As for Austin and Bell; Austin is so dynamic and versatile I can't see him slipping much further. The Bengals may have bigger needs, but the value brings to the return game and offense would instantly make this team much more explosive.

Bell, IMO, is the best short-yardage back in the draft and would offer an excellent complement to BJGE.

We don't need them [Austin and Bell] at all. Like it is in the negatives. Bell is a BJGE type back. BJGE excels at short-yardage situations. Why would we take him off the field for an overgrown FB? He is not the type of RB we need. Complete opposite actually. He is the antithesis of what we need.

Austin is also the EXACT opposite of what we would need. We have a dwarf for WR already in Andrew Hawkins. We have Mo Sanu to run gadget plays. We still would need a DE, S, RB, LB way before a luxury pick in Austin.

Overall they are just really poor fits.

bucfan12
12-06-2012, 10:45 AM
Your analysis on tampas Gerald McCoy couldn't be more wrong. He needs help along the line and he's missing Clayborn a ton. Bennett is overrated. He's solid in run defense but is more of a rotational player than full time starter. McCoy s presence has led the bucs going from 32nd in the league in 2011 to 1 in 2012. He needs some help with a pure pass rusher on the outside. He pushes the middle of the pocket but no one collapses on the outside.

regoob2
12-06-2012, 03:12 PM
Very good Bears picks. I think we would have to take a MLB in round 2 though since Urlacher is likely done.

REDiculous
12-06-2012, 04:24 PM
I really like this Chiefs draft. I would love the Teo pick. I don't see us moving to a 4-3 with this pick, however. Hali and Houston are perfect for the 3-4, and Johnson has been a stud in this defense as well. While Hali could move back to a 4-3 with ease, I think Houston would be lost in the shuffle.

Not sure how the Chiefs would be able to pass on Barkley in the 2nd round there, however.

Robcards
12-06-2012, 08:07 PM
1. The Jets already have 5 wins and the remaining schedule is Jax, Buf, SD, and Ten. They won't be picking anywhere close to 6th, ridiculous.

2. Not drafting a WR in the 1st round with huge gaping holes at OLB, G (assuming moore doesnt get re-signed), TE, RB, S, and QB. Holmes, Kerley, and Hill are the Jets WRs in 2013, not some 1st round reach.

BallerT1215
12-07-2012, 06:08 PM
Solid 1st rnd pick but Fluker in the 2nd round is wasted...people still think this is the old B-lo oline...our oline was grading out near the top before injuries...We need to think LB/WR2 in that 2nd rnd...

eliasrapp98
12-08-2012, 08:13 PM
If trades were in this mock I'd hope Philly would trade out and try to pick up an extra 1st and 2nd from KC or OAK.

Abaddon
12-09-2012, 11:58 PM
Jones' spinal stenosis will almost certainly see him fall out of the top 10. If not for that, I'd be doing David Wilson backflips over that pick.

And, even with that condition, Michael Irvin had a HoF career. It's not unheard of. Just risky. Riskier than your average top 5 draft pick.

Abaddon
12-09-2012, 11:59 PM
If trades were in this mock I'd hope Philly would trade out and try to pick up an extra 1st and 2nd from KC or OAK.

Why on earth would Oakland give up a 1 & 2 to move up one spot? For Geno Smith? Pfft! Yousa funny guy.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 11:06 AM
Why on earth would Oakland give up a 1 & 2 to move up one spot? For Geno Smith? Pfft! Yousa funny guy.

They don't even have a 2nd round pick this year bc of the Carson Palmer trade.

tmljeh19
12-16-2012, 07:42 PM
Absolutely AWFUL pick for Washington. The LAST thing we need is a WR. Any defensive player would be much better. Woods would be a great addition but with no first rounder you simply can not go D.