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Robcards
12-10-2012, 02:17 PM
Updated my spreadsheet with week 14's results and made some tweaks to the projected weeks 15-17 results. I feel more confident in the draft order than I do the picks, I simply have teams taking BPA unless they have a combination of big money contracts or previous 2 year high draft picks at the position (i.e. not having the Jets taking a WR with Holmes getting big money, Hill just had a 2nd round used on him last year, and Kerley from 2011 draft doing well). I.e. not having teams take their biggest need simply because its the biggest need, which almost never happens except for QB, which I will have teams taking way above their actual value.

1. Oakland Raiders - Projected record (3-13) Projected SOS (0.488)
Geno Smith - QB - West Virginia
I have the Raiders losing the battle for the #1 pick in week 15 vs the Chiefs, though I think it will be close. These forums are the only place I have seen Tyler Wilson even close to being the #1 QB in this draft class, so I'm going with the majority and saying Geno first.

2. Kansas City Chiefs - Projected record (3-13) Projected SOS (0.512)
Matt Barkley - QB - USC
Again, these forums are the only place where Tyler Wilson being taken 1st or even 2nd is considered an option. KC goes with the safe bet in Barkley, and let's be serious if he declared last year he would've been taken before Tannehill so I don't understand the hate on him this year. USC going 7-5 isn't his fault it's the fact that they have no depth behind their starters and when they got hit by injuries their team stunk on account of the scholarship penalties. Barkley is still the 2nd best QB prospect in this class.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Projected record (3-13) Projected SOS (0.527)
Dee Milliner - CB - Alabama
With so many holes on this team it's hard to argue that they should simply take the BPA. I think the 3 blue chip prospects in this class are Lotuleilei, Joeckel, and Milliner, so as long as they take one of those 3 it's a good pick IMO. Milliner would fill the biggest need of the 3 though.

4. Tennessee Titans - Projected record (4-12) Projected SOS (0.461)
Star Lotuleilei - DT - Utah
Blue-chip prospect. Arguably biggest need.

5. Philadelphia Eagles - Projected record (4-12) Projected SOS (0.508)
Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame
Not really sure what the Eagles do in the first next year, they have either youth or big contracts at pretty much every position, so it will depend on who they cut. I think Demeco Ryans could be cut to make room for Te'o, or one of their big money DTs like Patterson for Hankins or Richardson. Either way, I think this pick gets traded back to a LT needy team for Joeckel, but I'm not projecting trades in this mock.

6. Arizona Cardinals - Projected record (4-12) Projected SOS (0.551)
Tyler Wilson - QB - Arkansas
Already explained why I have Wilson as the 3rd QB off the board, going with the consensus (and not the draftcountdown chiefs fan consensus).

7. Detroit Lions - Projected record (5-11) Projected SOS (0.547)
Luke Joeckel - OT - Texas A&M
Sticking to BPA drafting they take the best o-lineman in the draft, and while they just took Reiff last year, he's likely better suited to play RT. Backus is likely done after this season, can't imagine he has much left in the tank, and even if he does that won't prevent them from taking this stud.

8. Buffalo Bills - Projected record (6-10) Projected SOS (0.492)
Bjoern Werner - DE - Florida State
I'm aware they just gave a enormous contract to Mario Williams and gave big money to Mark Anderson, but their pass rush is still bad and Anderson hasn't been healthy at all and is due a 1.5mil roster bonus in the off-season and can easily be let go of. Considering their other needs, the value at those positions simply isn't there. I think they take Landry Jones on day 2 considering his experience in pistol formations at OU, I think he'd be the best fit for Gailey's offense.

9. Cleveland Browns - Projected record (6-10) Projected SOS (0.500)
Damontre Moore - DE - Texas A&M
BPA and fills a big need. Don't feel I need to elaborate on this one.

10. Carolina Panthers - Projected record (6-10) Projected SOS (0.523)
Johnathan Hankins - DT - Ohio State
Not sold that Mankins will be the 2nd DT off the board, I think Richardson will make a push for it. Either way, Mankins would likely fill the bigger need of a run-stuffing DT whereas Richardson is a leaner pass-rushing DT.

11. St. Louis Rams - Projected record (6-9-1) Projected SOS (0.527)
Taylor Lewan - OT - Michigan
Rams' pass-protection woes and Saffold's failure at LT have been well-documented. No need to go into details here. Matthews could make a push for 2nd OT off the board though.


12. San Diego Chargers - Projected record (7-9) Projected SOS (0.469)
Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama
The Chargers' o-line is a mess, but the tackle spots should be solid in 2013 as those positions have just been decimated because of injuries. The interior line however, could use some help.

13. Miami Dolphins - Projected record (7-9) Projected SOS (0.492)
Keenan Allen - WR - California
Tried to address the WR position last year with some late-round fliers but none of them worked out as far as I know, and the only one still on the roster is Rishard Matthews I think.

14. Cincinnati Bengals - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.461)
Jarvis Jones - OLB/DE - Georgia
Size and health concerns push Jones out of the top 10 but could still be an absolute stud at the next level.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.486)
Johnthan Banks - CB - Mississippi State
One team I wouldn't blame if they reached a bit in the 1st round would be Tampa and corner. It's absurd that they have the best run d but worst pass d, they need lots of help in that secondary.


16. St. Louis Rams (via Washington) - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.498)
Jonathan Cooper - OG - North Carolina
Not sure how Rokevious Watkins from South Carolina is doing but I'm going to go ahead and assume he isn't a future pro-bowler.

17. New York Jets - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.504)
Sam Montgomery - OLB - LSU
Barkveious Mingo has been less than stellar in his first year as a starter, and has proved to be more of a situational pass-rusher in my mind. Wouldn't be surprised if he slips to 2nd round, or maybe even doesn't declare. Montgomery is the pass rusher on LSU I want.


18. Minnesota Vikings - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.520)
Justin Hunter - WR - Tennessee
Regardless of what's going on with Harvin, the Vikings desperately need a legitimate outside threat at WR. Been big on Hunter for a while and as long as his knees check out I anticipate a huge rise for him in the evaluation process.

19. New Orleans Saints - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.521)
Jake Matthews - OT - Texas A&M
Bushrod is in his contract year and it would surprise me if he's hung on to, he's been the weak link in that OL for a while.


20. New York Giants - Projected record (9-7) Projected SOS (0.525)
Eric Fisher - OT - Central Michigan
I imagine that Eli Manning would be a much better QB if he had more than 1 second to throw the ball. LT has been a disaster for the Giants, but not sure if they'll change their typical draft priorities for one, although many people didn't expect them taking a RB first round last year either.


21. Pittsburgh Steelers - Projected record (9-7) Projected SOS (0.461)
John Jenkins - NT - Georgia
Can't imagine that Hampton will be back next year as his contract is up and the Steelers tried to draft his replacement with Ta'amu last year and that failed.

22. Dallas Cowboys - Projected record (9-7) Projected SOS (0.512)
Eric Reid - S - LSU
Just speculating here considering they traded up to get his teammate Claiborne last year, maybe Jerry Jones loves Reid too. Safety is a big need and 22 wouldn't be a reach for him.


23. Indianapolis Colts - Projected record (10-6) Projected SOS (0.465)
Jesse Williams - NT - Alabama
They drafted his teammate Chapman last year who hasn't been healthy, and while he could still play on their front 3, maybe not necessarily at nose, that entire line needs work.

24. Chicago Bears - Projected record (10-6) Projected SOS (0.500)
Barrett Jones - OG - Alabama
Lance Louis is in his contract year and likely won't be back. The Bears o-line has been its achilles heel for a while now, I anticipate at least 1 early pick used on o-line by the Bears next year.


25. Seattle Seahawks - Projected record (10-6) Projected SOS (0.496)
Sheldon Richardson - DT - Missouri
Hard to find a weak spot on this team, so I looked at who's contracts are up at the end of the year and Jason Jones would make sense as the person most likely to be replaced with the draft. Seahawks drafted a super-talented defender with character concerns last year, so I could see this happening. Could also see Richardson going much higher as well.

26. Baltimore Ravens - Projected record (11-5) Projected SOS (0.500)
C.J. Mosley - LB - Alabama
If Ray doesn't hang em up after this season it'd be a mistake, he's been horrendous in coverage, slow, and is just an injury waiting to happen. Even if he doesn't, having Mosley learn from Ray for a year wouldn't be bad, and he could compete with McClain to start opposite Ray, and likely play over Ray in passing situations.

27. San Francisco 49ers - Projected record (11-4-1) Projected SOS (0.492)
Tavon Austin - WR - West Virginia
Another team it's hard to find holes on, but one thing they could use is more weapons. Austin could immediately contribute on special teams, and come in on certain packages.


28. New England Patriots - Projected record (12-4) Projected SOS (0.504)
Xavier Rhodes - CB - Florida State
Trading for Talib wasn't the long-term solution as his contract expires at the end of the year. The secondary still needs help.

29. Atlanta Falcons - Projected record (13-3) Projected SOS (0.426)
Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
Going to keep being lazy and mocking Eifert to the Falcons, replacing a retiring Gonzo, etc etc you know the drill.

30. Houston Texans - Projected record (14-2) Projected SOS (0.492)
DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Clemson
Keyshawn Martin has shown some promise, but aside from that their WR depth behind Andre Johnson is miserable.


31. Green Bay Packers - Projected record (12-4) Projected SOS (0.492)
Lane Johnson - OT - Oklahoma
A slight reach, it's possible the Packers move up or down in the draft a bit, but it's obvious the o-line needs some help. Newhouse and Sherrod aren't good at LT.

32. Denver Broncos - Projected record (13-3) Projected SOS (0.473)
Sharrif Floyd - DT - Florida
Not sure if they intend to keep Derek Wolfe as a rotational DE or move him to DT or not, but they currently don't have much at DT signed for next year.

As always, comments always appreciated. Please try to keep them productive such as what players would be a good scheme fit for a certain team, or if they can't cut a player I anticipate being cut because of some contract structure I'm unaware of, etc. Comments like 'Tyler Wilson is better than Barkley' get us no where, thanks =D

ChicagoBearsVet23
12-10-2012, 02:21 PM
Perfect Chicago Bears pick!!

Taber21
12-10-2012, 02:36 PM
Solid pick for the Vikings, #1 need, IMO.

bruschis4all
12-10-2012, 03:51 PM
I see you don't have E. Ansah or Dion Jordan in your mock. If I'm the Pats, I'd take one of them to groom to replace Ninkovich. Tired of drafting db's who don't pan out. A good pass rush is the best pass defense. If you want to go dt, I'd also take Floyd, Sylvester Williams or Kawann Short over a cb to get that interior pass rush they are missing too.

vidae
12-10-2012, 03:54 PM
You're the only person who thinks Barkley is a top 5 pick. The hate on Barkley is that he was meh this year. Not top 10 pick worthy. Sure his OL didn't help him much but he had the best WR corps in the country and he looked decidedly average all year.

Also hilarious how Wilson can't go 2nd overall, but 6th overall is fine.

Anyway, awful KC pick.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 05:13 PM
You're the only person who thinks Barkley is a top 5 pick. The hate on Barkley is that he was meh this year. Not top 10 pick worthy. Sure his OL didn't help him much but he had the best WR corps in the country and he looked decidedly average all year.

Also hilarious how Wilson can't go 2nd overall, but 6th overall is fine.

Anyway, awful KC pick.

Please go find me prospect rankings that have Wilson ahead of Barkley. You aren't a draft expert, the ranks I've seen are from draft experts and none of them, NONE, have Wilson ahead of Barkley.

PS- I was actually curious to see if anyone at all agrees with you, and after 2 pages of google search '2013 nfl draft prospects' and seeing Geno AND Barkley ahead of Wilson on every single one. I gave up. I can get that you refuse to admit you're wrong, but going into every mock that doesn't have KC taking your guy and calling it awful is just beyond immature. Grow up.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 05:15 PM
I see you don't have E. Ansah or Dion Jordan in your mock. If I'm the Pats, I'd take one of them to groom to replace Ninkovich. Tired of drafting db's who don't pan out. A good pass rush is the best pass defense. If you want to go dt, I'd also take Floyd, Sylvester Williams or Kawann Short over a cb to get that interior pass rush they are missing too.

This class is very strong at pass rusher, I think Ansah and Jordan will be 2nd round picks.

SuperPacker
12-10-2012, 05:20 PM
How can you say Sherrod isn't good at LT when he hasn't even played?

Robcards
12-10-2012, 05:22 PM
How can you say Sherrod isn't good at LT when he hasn't even played?

Haven't heard 'hes good when hes healthy' I've just heard 'bust.' Is that not the case?

vidae
12-10-2012, 05:49 PM
Please go find me prospect rankings that have Wilson ahead of Barkley. You aren't a draft expert, the ranks I've seen are from draft experts and none of them, NONE, have Wilson ahead of Barkley.

PS- I was actually curious to see if anyone at all agrees with you, and after 2 pages of google search '2013 nfl draft prospects' and seeing Geno AND Barkley ahead of Wilson on every single one. I gave up. I can get that you refuse to admit you're wrong, but going into every mock that doesn't have KC taking your guy and calling it awful is just beyond immature. Grow up.

I found a mock in less than ten seconds that had Tyler Wilson going first overall. That was hard.

Second, I don't go into every mock without him #1 and call it awful. Just yours, because you're constantly combative when someone disagrees with you. In the first six picks you have rude comments toward Chiefs fans or people that disagree with you about Wilson, but I'm the immature one?

Keep on keepin on.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 05:53 PM
I found a mock in less than ten seconds that had Tyler Wilson going first overall. That was hard.

Second, I don't go into every mock without him #1 and call it awful. Just yours, because you're constantly combative when someone disagrees with you. In the first six picks you have rude comments toward Chiefs fans or people that disagree with you about Wilson, but I'm the immature one?

Keep on keepin on.

A mock? No I mean an actual website that evaluates draft prospects. And I was preparing for your automatic 'awful KC pick' comment that you post in every mock without Wilson.

I've tried to reason with you in the past, and you have no logic or reason behind your argument you just simply like Tyler Wilson the most and are deaf to anything that says otherwise.

By the way here are a list of websites that rank Geno and Barkley ahead of Tyler Wilson:

www.draftcountdown.com
www.cbssports.com
www.rivals.com
www.bleacherreport.com
www.footballsfuture.com
www.fftoolbox.com
www.walterfootball.com (disagree with most of his crap but he was on page 1 of google)
www.drafttek.com
www.optimumscouting.com


List of websites that rank Tyler Wilson 1st or 2nd QB:

Waiting on you

vidae
12-10-2012, 05:54 PM
A mock? No I mean an actual website that evaluates draft prospects. And I was preparing for your automatic 'awful KC pick' comment that you post in every mock without Wilson.

Show me another mock where I've said "awful KC pick" that didn't have us taking Wilson or any other QB.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 06:01 PM
Show me another mock where I've said "awful KC pick" that didn't have us taking Wilson or any other QB.

LOL you've berated everyone on these forums so much you've got them taking Tyler Wilson just to appease you! This forum is the ONLY place I've seen Tyler Wilson going before Barkley or Geno! Even the player rankings on this very website disagree with you.

Ok you reserve 'awful' for me I suppose the way I say it worse than other people, fair enough. Either way, you say it in different ways when someone has KC taking Barkley, and if someone has KC taking Geno you say 'good pick, but tyler wilson would be better' like that's any kind of analysis? Dude, we get it. You love Wilson. Stop posting your useless dribble, it helps no one and offers no insight other than that you like Wilson. Go post in the Tyler Wilson thread, stop wasting your time looking at mocks and saying the same crap.

vidae
12-10-2012, 06:05 PM
I don't berate anyone. And if you actually went back and looked at some of the mocks I've been fine with Tyler or Geno. But keep pulling stuff out of your ass.

Still waiting on another mock I've called awful that had us at least taking Geno or Tyler. I have a feeling I'm going to be waiting a while, but take your time. :njx:

Robcards
12-10-2012, 06:09 PM
I don't berate anyone. And if you actually went back and looked at some of the mocks I've been fine with Tyler or Geno. But keep pulling stuff out of your ass.

Still waiting on another mock I've called awful that had us at least taking Geno or Tyler. I have a feeling I'm going to be waiting a while, but take your time. :njx:

Saying:
"Really dislike that KC pick. Give us Geno Smith or Tyler Wilson over Barkley 100 times out of 100. I don't want Matt Barkley anywhere near KC."

or

"Give the Chiefs Geno Smith or Tyler Wilson. Matt Barkley is just not good."

Is effectively the same thing you realize? No insight. No reasons. Not letting us know why Tyler Wilson is a better fit than Barkley. Nothing.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 06:11 PM
My point is this: Most people, at least I, put a solid amount of thought and a little bit of time into a mock. Factoring in where the money is tied up and high draft picks, and so forth, and what prospects are rated where. If you're going to say a pick is wrong, a fraction of that thought and time put into your response isn't asking too much.

Pat Sims 90
12-10-2012, 06:18 PM
Jones works for the Bengals.

ArkyRamsFan
12-10-2012, 06:40 PM
Robcards,

Taylor Lewan would be excellent for the Rams, but I gotta believe that Fish would take a WR like Justin Hunter over a second OL like Cooper in the first round.

Also, why do you project the Rams going 6-9-1, do you not think we will win another game this year?

SickwithIt1010
12-10-2012, 06:46 PM
Tyler Wilson in Philly.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 07:52 PM
Robcards,

Taylor Lewan would be excellent for the Rams, but I gotta believe that Fish would take a WR like Justin Hunter over a second OL like Cooper in the first round.

Also, why do you project the Rams going 6-9-1, do you not think we will win another game this year?

Don't see WR considering the wealth of youth at the position. Givens, Gibson, Quick, and Pettis, etc. like I said I'm not sure how Watkins is, but if he isn't great then 2 OL in the 1st makes sense to me

regoob2
12-10-2012, 07:53 PM
Why is Lance Louis unlikely to re-sign with Chicago?

Bad Bears pick. Jones isn't worth that pick. Mosley, Eifert, Richardson or Johnson would be better.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 07:53 PM
Tyler Wilson in Philly.

No faith in Nick Foles?

Robcards
12-10-2012, 08:00 PM
Why is Lance Louis unlikely to re-sign with Chicago?

Bad Bears pick. Jones isn't worth that pick. Mosley, Eifert, Richardson or Johnson would be better.

Why would the Bears re-sign him?

killxswitch
12-10-2012, 09:24 PM
Colts would take Dion Jordan before a NT not named Star. Higher need and better value.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 09:49 PM
Colts would take Dion Jordan before a NT not named Star. Higher need and better value.

They're both big needs but most rankings I've looked at have Jenkins much higher than Jordan. Obviously offseason evaluations can change this, but nothing I've seen suggests that Jordan is a surefire 1st round pick. I'd look for the Colts to sign a FA like Kruger from Baltimore to play OLB opposite Mathis too, not many FA nose tackles out there.

Edit: realized after I wrote this that I have Jenkins going 2 picks earlier to the steelers. Forgot about that. Anyway, it's speculative who the better value is between Jesse Williams and dion Jordan is at this point, Jesse has been soaring up the boards this year, his measurables will be huge in determining if he's a 1st rounder or not

Packers12
12-10-2012, 10:02 PM
I agree with the OT pick for the Packers, but Sherrod has barely played due to his leg injury. I think he's a longterm guard.

Hermstheman83
12-10-2012, 10:04 PM
Even though Barkley is eqivalen to Dalton. I'll gladly take any one of the prospects over Quinn or Cassel....Why did you decide Smith is above Barkley? I would think the close connection to Oakland, barkley would be their QB of choice. Also, Jacksonville would probably take a qb too right? Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne? That's like choosing between an amputation and an rusty dagger suppository right? Good mock man. Thanks for the insight.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 10:19 PM
Even though Barkley is eqivalen to Dalton. I'll gladly take any one of the prospects over Quinn or Cassel....Why did you decide Smith is above Barkley? I would think the close connection to Oakland, barkley would be their QB of choice. Also, Jacksonville would probably take a qb too right? Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne? That's like choosing between an amputation and an rusty dagger suppository right? Good mock man. Thanks for the insight.

Thanks! I think the connection with USC left with Hue Jackson, no? I simply went off of how most prospect rankings have Geno 1st. Of course Jacksonville can take a qb, it's tough to say which team will like which QBs. There will be a lot of teams passing on a qb in the first to go for a 2nd round qb bc they think he's a better fit. Arizona could decide they think Glennon is the best fit for them and take a LT first round and take qb 2nd for instance. It's really wide open at this point, can't wait until April

SuperPacker
12-10-2012, 10:24 PM
Haven't heard 'hes good when hes healthy' I've just heard 'bust.' Is that not the case?

We don't know. He was a backup his first season and had a broken leg this season. We'll find out next year, hopefully.

Robcards
12-10-2012, 10:27 PM
We don't know. He was a backup his first season and had a broken leg this season. We'll find out next year, hopefully.

Yeah I just recall him being behind Newhouse for the LT job before he got injured this year, so I just figured since Newsome bad at LT, Sherrod not as good as Newhouse, Sherrod bad at LT. Obviously making assumptions but I didn't hear anyone say he's the LT of the future

nobodyinparticular
12-10-2012, 10:48 PM
Thanks! I think the connection with USC left with Hue Jackson, no? I simply went off of how most prospect rankings have Geno 1st. Of course Jacksonville can take a qb, it's tough to say which team will like which QBs. There will be a lot of teams passing on a qb in the first to go for a 2nd round qb bc they think he's a better fit. Arizona could decide they think Glennon is the best fit for them and take a LT first round and take qb 2nd for instance. It's really wide open at this point, can't wait until April

Al Davis loved him some Trojans.

With that said, the Raiders taking one of the QBs in this draft would make me sick, especially at #1 overall.

In that scenario I foresee Arizona trading up to the #1 spot to take Smith, Barkley or Wilson. If you don't want to mock a trade, then it will be someone in the trenches.

Not a waste of a #1 overall pick.

mqtirishfan
12-11-2012, 01:28 AM
Yeah I just recall him being behind Newhouse for the LT job before he got injured this year, so I just figured since Newsome bad at LT, Sherrod not as good as Newhouse, Sherrod bad at LT. Obviously making assumptions but I didn't hear anyone say he's the LT of the future

He got injured last year, not this year.

Also, it's inconsequential, but is Mankins a cheeky nickname for Hankins, or do you just not know his name?

TimmG6376
12-11-2012, 05:44 AM
I agree with the OT pick for the Packers, but Sherrod has barely played due to his leg injury. I think he's a longterm guard.

They already tried that and it was not successful. Sherrod is a tackle.

He was progressing last year, but couldnt crack the lineup on an undefeated team until Bulaga was hurt. He then broke his leg only a few plays after coming into the game. It was as a brutal injury though so who knows if he'll ever fully recover. I'd be shocked if it was at guard though.

AntoinCD
12-11-2012, 07:42 AM
I'm only commenting on this because I haven't had Barkley rated highly in months, but this is a direct quote from Adam Schefter, who has more inside knowledge than everyone who posts here combined

"When you look at the draft there aren't any sure-fire guys that you can turn to and say this is a guy we're going to be rebuilding around.

Matt Barkley is viewed as a late first round pick and who knows what he can do in his rookie year. Maybe a lot, maybe not very much. Collin Klein, late round pick. Geno Smith, it's not as if scouts are just completely wowed by him."

So, all the draft experts (which there aren't any since the draft is such an unknown) think Barkley is a high first rounder, but actual scouts believe he is a late first rounder?

regoob2
12-11-2012, 08:27 AM
Why would the Bears re-sign him?
He's been our best O linemen as was a solid NFL starter until getting hurt. We'd be crazy not to. When your OL is as bad as ours your not going to let your best one walk.

Matthew Jones
12-11-2012, 08:30 AM
I'd be fine with Xavier Rhodes.

Robcards
12-11-2012, 08:59 AM
He's been our best O linemen as was a solid NFL starter until getting hurt. We'd be crazy not to. When your OL is as bad as ours your not going to let your best one walk.

That's pretty sad if he's the best lineman, but even so, replace Lance Louis with Chilo Rachal and the statement stands?

And I still say they won't re-sign him. Age and health are bigger factors in whether or not to re-sign someone, as the players skill typically determines how much he costs.

FootballGod
12-11-2012, 09:01 AM
Jarvis Jones at #14 = Jizz

Robcards
12-11-2012, 09:03 AM
So, all the draft experts (which there aren't any since the draft is such an unknown) think Barkley is a high first rounder, but actual scouts believe he is a late first rounder?

Tannehill was a 2nd round pick that went 8th. Ponder was a 2nd round pick that went 12th. With the new CBA its less of a burden to draft a QB high because if they bust it doesn't destroy your cap for 4 years. It doesn't matter if theres 30 players at different positions that are considered better, if you need a franchise QB in this day in age, you take one, it seems. You can add Weeden 22nd last year too as he shouldn't have been taken until day 3 considering his age.

Robcards
12-11-2012, 09:04 AM
He got injured last year, not this year.

Also, it's inconsequential, but is Mankins a cheeky nickname for Hankins, or do you just not know his name?

Or, option 3, in the thousands of characters that was my mock, I made one typing error. So sorry it will never happen again

AntoinCD
12-11-2012, 09:13 AM
Tannehill was a 2nd round pick that went 8th. Ponder was a 2nd round pick that went 12th. With the new CBA its less of a burden to draft a QB high because if they bust it doesn't destroy your cap for 4 years. It doesn't matter if theres 30 players at different positions that are considered better, if you need a franchise QB in this day in age, you take one, it seems. You can add Weeden 22nd last year too as he shouldn't have been taken until day 3 considering his age.

Tannehill and Barkley aren't really comparable. One is a physically gifted former WR who needed to work on the nuances of his game but had tremendous upside. The other is a polished 4 year starter with perceived physical limitations. Barkley actually compares rather favourably to Ponder and when the Vikings selected him many thought it was too early and he has hardly set the league on fire.

I have no doubt that Barkley may go higher than where he would if all things were equal based on the position he plays, however 2nd overall seems really high. Barkley may well go in the first half of round 1, however I would be very surprised if he was a top 5 pick

Robcards
12-11-2012, 09:17 AM
Tannehill and Barkley aren't really comparable. One is a physically gifted former WR who needed to work on the nuances of his game but had tremendous upside. The other is a polished 4 year starter with perceived physical limitations. Barkley actually compares rather favourably to Ponder and when the Vikings selected him many thought it was too early and he has hardly set the league on fire.

I have no doubt that Barkley may go higher than where he would if all things were equal based on the position he plays, however 2nd overall seems really high. Barkley may well go in the first half of round 1, however I would be very surprised if he was a top 5 pick

I'm not comparing the 2 at all. I'm just showing examples of QBs that have went way higher than they should have because of the new CBA. Thought that was clear.

AntoinCD
12-11-2012, 09:24 AM
I'm not comparing the 2 at all. I'm just showing examples of QBs that have went way higher than they should have because of the new CBA. Thought that was clear.

But in doing that you have to compare what type of QB the guy is to previous guys. Guys with higher upside tend to rise higher than low ceiling, low floor guys. No team is going to give up the farm, metaphorically, for someone who profiles as an average to slightly above average QB.

The Vikings took Ponder in the first because they didn't have a viable QB but they aren't a team who lean on their QB. All Ponder has to do is not make mistakes for the Vikings to be competitive. That is reminiscent of what the Chiefs need this year but the difference between the 1st or 2nd pick and the 12th pick is massive, even without the contracts being enormous.

Picking atop the draft you are expecting a QB who can be the cornerstone of your franchise. You are expecting Peyton Manning, not Alex Smith

Robcards
12-11-2012, 09:28 AM
But in doing that you have to compare what type of QB the guy is to previous guys. Guys with higher upside tend to rise higher than low ceiling, low floor guys. No team is going to give up the farm, metaphorically, for someone who profiles as an average to slightly above average QB.

The Vikings took Ponder in the first because they didn't have a viable QB but they aren't a team who lean on their QB. All Ponder has to do is not make mistakes for the Vikings to be competitive. That is reminiscent of what the Chiefs need this year but the difference between the 1st or 2nd pick and the 12th pick is massive, even without the contracts being enormous.

Picking atop the draft you are expecting a QB who can be the cornerstone of your franchise. You are expecting Peyton Manning, not Alex Smith

But in absence of a Peyton Manning, teams take Alex Smith first, you made my point for me with that last sentence lol. The 2000 draft is the only one I can think of in recent memory where no QB was taken in the top half of the 1st round, and considering all the QB needy teams will be picking in the top 10, I just don't see how guys like Geno and Barkley aren't top 5 picks.

regoob2
12-11-2012, 09:40 AM
That's pretty sad if he's the best lineman, but even so, replace Lance Louis with Chilo Rachal and the statement stands?

And I still say they won't re-sign him. Age and health are bigger factors in whether or not to re-sign someone, as the players skill typically determines how much he costs.
I don't think you really know what you're talking about. Louis has been good all year at RG. Not Bears good, NFL good. He's also only 27 years old. Chilo Rachal isnt a starter anymore. You don't seem to be up to date on this stuff.

Robcards
12-11-2012, 09:41 AM
I don't think you really know what you're talking about. Louis has been good all year at RG. Not Bears good, NFL good. He's also only 27 years old. Chilo Rachal isnt a starter anymore. You don't seem to be up to date on this stuff.

Didn't Louis get injured? Am I confusing him with someone else?

It turns out I am not:

On Nov 26: "Bears placed RG Lance Louis on injured reserve with a torn left ACL, ending his season."

AntoinCD
12-11-2012, 10:05 AM
But in absence of a Peyton Manning, teams take Alex Smith first, you made my point for me with that last sentence lol. The 2000 draft is the only one I can think of in recent memory where no QB was taken in the top half of the 1st round, and considering all the QB needy teams will be picking in the top 10, I just don't see how guys like Geno and Barkley aren't top 5 picks.

Eh, I'm pretty sure I didn't. Here are all the QBs drafted in the first half of the first round since 2000;

Michael Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Alex Smith
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Jamarcus Russell
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Sam Bradford
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill

Of all those guys, with the exception of the bolded ones, they all were either high upside guys, guys with prototypical tools or came off a sensational final year in college.

Alex Smith is a more accurate passer than Barkley and possesses better size and a comparable arm.

Leinart fell based on initial expectations due to arm strength concerns and the fact that neither he nor Sanchez have been successful will actually go against Barkley.

Matt Ryan wasn't seen as a top notch prospect but he was literally the only top QB prospect that year and was much more physically gifted than Barkley.

Ponder is the only guy taken in the top half of the draft in the last 12 years who is comparable to Barkley. Barkley has height concerns, questions over arm strength, accuracy isn't consistently there, struggled to win against top PAC12 competition, didn't have a good year despite having the best WR duo in the country. However he has good intangibles and will interview well...therefore a second round pick IMO. However based on his position he will likely move up into the second half of the first round, not the 2nd overall pick in my opinion

regoob2
12-11-2012, 10:07 AM
Didn't Louis get injured? Am I confusing him with someone else?

It turns out I am not:

On Nov 26: "Bears placed RG Lance Louis on injured reserve with a torn left ACL, ending his season."

It's not career ending. He will be resigned.

Robcards
12-11-2012, 10:16 AM
It's not career ending. He will be resigned.

Care to wager on it? =)

Robcards
12-11-2012, 10:18 AM
Ponder is the only guy taken in the top half of the draft in the last 12 years who is comparable to Barkley. Barkley has height concerns, questions over arm strength, accuracy isn't consistently there, struggled to win against top PAC12 competition, didn't have a good year despite having the best WR duo in the country. However he has good intangibles and will interview well...therefore a second round pick IMO. However based on his position he will likely move up into the second half of the first round, not the 2nd overall pick in my opinion

The Chiefs and Cardinals are far too desperate at QB to not draft one with their first pick, I'm sorry but I just don't see Barkley falling that far. Even if the Raiders don't draft a QB, the Chiefs take Geno and Cardinals take Barkley. What scenario do you see Barkley going late 1st? Who would take him late 1st? No one in the playoffs needs a QB.

indyfan1985
12-11-2012, 10:25 AM
Give the Colts DE Sheldon Richardson. If he's gone, then we go CB Xavier Rhodes.

AntoinCD
12-11-2012, 10:25 AM
The Chiefs and Cardinals are far too desperate at QB to not draft one with their first pick, I'm sorry but I just don't see Barkley falling that far. Even if the Raiders don't draft a QB, the Chiefs take Geno and Cardinals take Barkley. What scenario do you see Barkley going late 1st? Who would take him late 1st? No one in the playoffs needs a QB.

You also need to bear in mind that guys like Alex Smith and likely Matt Flynn will also be available in free agency and/or trade.

I'm not even sure Smith is under contract next year but if he is and if I can use a 5th round pick to get him I would be very tempted

What makes the Cardinals better? Alex Smith and Luke Joeckel or Matt Barkley, DJ Fluker and a 5th round draft choice?

The Chiefs likely can't pass on a QB but they will also likely have their choice of guys, and in my mind Barkley is a clear cut 3rd choice, possibly 4th if someone falls in love with Glennon's tools.

As for who could take him late first? Hypothetically; KC, Jacksonville, Arizona, Buffalo, New York Jets, Philadelphia etc through a trade up or trade down

Robcards
12-11-2012, 10:31 AM
You also need to bear in mind that guys like Alex Smith and likely Matt Flynn will also be available in free agency and/or trade.

I'm not even sure Smith is under contract next year but if he is and if I can use a 5th round pick to get him I would be very tempted

What makes the Cardinals better? Alex Smith and Luke Joeckel or Matt Barkley, DJ Fluker and a 5th round draft choice?

The Chiefs likely can't pass on a QB but they will also likely have their choice of guys, and in my mind Barkley is a clear cut 3rd choice, possibly 4th if someone falls in love with Glennon's tools.

As for who could take him late first? Hypothetically; KC, Jacksonville, Arizona, Buffalo, New York Jets, Philadelphia etc through a trade up or trade down

It wouldn't be Fluker it'd be someone more like Lane Johnson. Fluker projects as a mauling run blocking RT, which they already drafted last year in Massie. And it isn't a matter of who would make them better next year, it'd be long-term as well. If they trade for Smith he's under contract for 2 years, and is a borderline starter, and debatable whether or not Barkley would be better than him or not in 2013, but certainly has more potential to get better whereas Smith is WYSIWYG, or probably worse. Matt Flynn is a backup I don't see any teams saying oh boy let's get Matt Flynn to be our starter in 2013, was shocked the Seahawks even signed him last year.

AntoinCD
12-11-2012, 10:42 AM
It wouldn't be Fluker it'd be someone more like Lane Johnson. Fluker projects as a mauling run blocking RT, which they already drafted last year in Massie. And it isn't a matter of who would make them better next year, it'd be long-term as well. If they trade for Smith he's under contract for 2 years, and is a borderline starter, and debatable whether or not Barkley would be better than him or not in 2013, but certainly has more potential to get better whereas Smith is WYSIWYG, or probably worse. Matt Flynn is a backup I don't see any teams saying oh boy let's get Matt Flynn to be our starter in 2013, was shocked the Seahawks even signed him last year.

Even if they did go in any other direction, Joeckel looks like a stud. Someone who they can build around for the next decade. The Cardinals offensive line is a disgrace. No matter who is back there they won't cope without better protection. Alex Smith, for all his criticism is a guy who can take a team to the postseason. The Cardinals have the defense, they have Fitzgerald. If they shore up their front then he can bring success. For all the talk for years that first round QBs are the way to go it has kinda been disproved recently. While guys like Bradford, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker etc have been less than stellar guys like Dalton, Wilson, Foles to an extent have shown they can be successful. I am not neccessarily saying that is the way I would go but if I have Barkley rated as a fringe first rounder then I don't want to take him in the top 5, particularly with a draft that is so strong with linemen.

regoob2
12-11-2012, 10:48 AM
Care to wager on it? =)

Sure. ....... 10

Robcards
12-11-2012, 11:21 AM
Even if they did go in any other direction, Joeckel looks like a stud. Someone who they can build around for the next decade. The Cardinals offensive line is a disgrace. No matter who is back there they won't cope without better protection. Alex Smith, for all his criticism is a guy who can take a team to the postseason. The Cardinals have the defense, they have Fitzgerald. If they shore up their front then he can bring success. For all the talk for years that first round QBs are the way to go it has kinda been disproved recently. While guys like Bradford, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker etc have been less than stellar guys like Dalton, Wilson, Foles to an extent have shown they can be successful. I am not neccessarily saying that is the way I would go but if I have Barkley rated as a fringe first rounder then I don't want to take him in the top 5, particularly with a draft that is so strong with linemen.

As a Jets fan I'm offended that you just used the phrase 'he can take a team to the playoffs.' Sanchez has been to 2 AFC Championships, want the Cardinals to take his horrendous contract off the Jets hands? How about Tebow we'll give him to you for free. Alex Smith finally had a mediocre season and his team went to the playoffs touting a top 3 defense, he is a backup in the NFL and any team that starts him is at a disadvantage because of him. 'He just wins' is horrendous logic and something that the agents of Flacco and Alex Smith and whoever else who can't say anything better about their QB came up with. The Niners would've went to the playoffs with Tolzien under center last year, the division was mostly garbage and their D and run game was sufficient to handle it.

thebow305
12-11-2012, 11:26 AM
Allen is a great pick!

nobodyinparticular
12-11-2012, 01:17 PM
You also need to bear in mind that guys like Alex Smith and likely Matt Flynn will also be available in free agency and/or trade.

I'm not even sure Smith is under contract next year but if he is and if I can use a 5th round pick to get him I would be very tempted

What makes the Cardinals better? Alex Smith and Luke Joeckel or Matt Barkley, DJ Fluker and a 5th round draft choice?

The Chiefs likely can't pass on a QB but they will also likely have their choice of guys, and in my mind Barkley is a clear cut 3rd choice, possibly 4th if someone falls in love with Glennon's tools.

As for who could take him late first? Hypothetically; KC, Jacksonville, Arizona, Buffalo, New York Jets, Philadelphia etc through a trade up or trade down

Do you really think it is likely that Flynn or Skith get trade within the division to the Cards?

Smith has an option year next year so it is a possibility that he hits the open market, but are the Cardinals REALLY going to be content going with Smith as the savior of their franchise? You know what you are going to get from him, sure, but what you are going to get is not much at all.

ArkyRamsFan
12-11-2012, 03:31 PM
Don't see WR considering the wealth of youth at the position. Givens, Gibson, Quick, and Pettis, etc. like I said I'm not sure how Watkins is, but if he isn't great then 2 OL in the 1st makes sense to me

Gibson, Amendola and Steve Smith are all FAs at the end of the year. Rams might want to resign Amendola but he has been injured an excessive amount last year and this year.

That leaves Givens, Quick and Pettis as our receiver corps. Pettis is a 3 or 4 at best and Quick has yet to see the field much this year.

At any rate no matter how you slice it we still need a number one and some quality depth. Hunter or even a Corderelle Patterson would bring the big play capacity that we sorely lack.

Outside of maybe C. Warmack I don't see any guards that are worth a first round pick.

armageddon
12-11-2012, 03:35 PM
Gibson, Amendola and Steve Smith are all FAs at the end of the year. Rams might want to resign Amendola but he has been injured an excessive amount last year and this year.

That leaves Givens, Quick and Pettis as our receiver corps. Pettis is a 3 or 4 at best and Quick has yet to see the field much this year.

At any rate no matter how you slice it we still need a number one and some quality depth. Hunter or even a Corderelle Patterson would bring the big play capacity that we sorely lack.

Outside of maybe C. Warmack I don't see any guards that are worth a first round pick.


Would love one of these guys. WR Williams too. The Rams have to come away with one OL and one WR in rd 1.

Abaddon
12-11-2012, 05:19 PM
1. Oakland Raiders - Projected record (3-13) Projected SOS (0.488)
Geno Smith - QB - West Virginia

Ew. No. God no.

Abaddon
12-11-2012, 05:25 PM
Even though Barkley is eqivalen to Dalton. I'll gladly take any one of the prospects over Quinn or Cassel....Why did you decide Smith is above Barkley? I would think the close connection to Oakland, barkley would be their QB of choice. Also, Jacksonville would probably take a qb too right? Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne? That's like choosing between an amputation and an rusty dagger suppository right? Good mock man. Thanks for the insight.

What connection?

Also, lol@ Barkley going #1 overall.

Robcards
12-11-2012, 11:33 PM
Gibson, Amendola and Steve Smith are all FAs at the end of the year. Rams might want to resign Amendola but he has been injured an excessive amount last year and this year.

That leaves Givens, Quick and Pettis as our receiver corps. Pettis is a 3 or 4 at best and Quick has yet to see the field much this year.

At any rate no matter how you slice it we still need a number one and some quality depth. Hunter or even a Corderelle Patterson would bring the big play capacity that we sorely lack.

Outside of maybe C. Warmack I don't see any guards that are worth a first round pick.

Didn't realize Gibson was a FA I thought this was his 3rd year not 4th. If Quick truly isn't making progress id expect they'd at least re-sign Gibson. Amendola being a Ram next year is probably doubtful though. WR was a big need last year too and Fisher didn't take one in the first round either though.

Robcards
12-11-2012, 11:35 PM
Ew. No. God no.

Care to elaborate?

Poz51
12-12-2012, 11:45 AM
8. Buffalo Bills - Projected record (6-10) Projected SOS (0.492)
Bjoern Werner - DE - Florida State
I think they take Landry Jones on day 2 considering his experience in pistol formations at OU, I think he'd be the best fit for Gailey's offense.

9. Cleveland Browns - Projected record (6-10) Projected SOS (0.500)
Damontre Moore - DE - Texas A&M

13. Miami Dolphins - Projected record (7-9) Projected SOS (0.492)[/B]
Keenan Allen - WR - California

14. Cincinnati Bengals - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.461)
Jarvis Jones - OLB/DE - Georgia



Werner is a good pick for Buffalo, although with Williams playing LE, I think a more natural RE is a better pick in this situation, and IMO Moore fits in that regard, and I also have him rated higher. Werner I think could make the move (I believe he played RE early in his career), but Moore is more natural, and Williams is a more natural LE.
I dont see them going dline however, unless all QB, and LB, possibly WR options are gone. I think a QB like L. Jones is a good option in round 2 or 3, if Gailey is still here next year.
I have been throwing this out there with no response, Jarvis Jones could have a familiar role to Von Miller in this defense, OLB on first and second down, then slide down to DE and rush the passer on 3rd down. Sheppard and Bradham are starting to figure things out at ILB and SOLB respectively, Barnett is 32 and while productive, is starting to decline. Thoughts on that?
Tyler Wilson - I have to throw in my .02. I have him as the best QB in this draft, and have had it that way since last year. Watching him this year this is what I see: The same guy I saw last year (Field general, a guy with a great arm who stares down the barrel of a gun and completes passes (when his WR's hold on to the pass) with good accuracy. He could not control the situation Petrino put that team in, or that he had the worst talent base around him in comparison to the last 4 years at Arkansas. I actually thought he out performed the circumstances. He did not have the best WR corps in the country, or a air-raid spread attack with one of the top 5(?) WR corps, nope, he had Colbi "dropsy's" Hamilton, and a lame duck interm HC. I am actually shocked at how this years QB rankings are playing out across the web. I also have Ryan Nassib as my #2 QB, and my scouting report is basically the same as Wilson's, minus the program issues, and would take either of them over Smith and Barkley. IMO both Wilson and Nassib will ascend once people actually start watching the tape.

Robcards
12-13-2012, 12:42 AM
Interesting points about Werner, Moore, and Jones. You lost me at Tyler Wilson though, I couldn't disagree more. Tyler Wilson had plenty of talent around him, and Cobi Hamilton is a stud. If Barkley and Wilson declared last year do you honestly think Wilson would have went before Barkley?

Abaddon
12-13-2012, 11:24 AM
Care to elaborate?

Just can't see Reggie drafting a raw QB prospect onto a team in such disrepair. I feel like we'll let Palmer hold the reigns another year while we add talent to this mid-major caliber roster.

If anything, he'll attempt to trade that pick to a team wanting a QB.

Poz51
12-13-2012, 12:29 PM
Interesting points about Werner, Moore, and Jones. You lost me at Tyler Wilson though, I couldn't disagree more. Tyler Wilson had plenty of talent around him, and Cobi Hamilton is a stud. If Barkley and Wilson declared last year do you honestly think Wilson would have went before Barkley?

What do you disagree with other than the lack of talent around him?
Hamilton I was high on (first/second round in my mocks high), and I think is talented, but I cant get passed the lack of concentration and drops in games, particularly big games (LSU) and from what I have read, practice as well. I expect him to have big games against Rutgers, A & M, Ole Miss and Tulsa's secondary's, particularly with those teams lack of depth in the secondary, and being crossed to death. A stud IMO is going to do better against the LSU's, Alabama's and S. Carolina's of the world. That LSU game this year, he was afraid to catch the ball in the 4th quarter... Outside of Hamilton no one on that team had more than 21 catches, and I dont see much of an NFL future on the roster at WR at this point.
I think Barkley's stock peeked last year, and he probably could have gone before Wilson. Although in my first 2013 mock, which I posted 5/16/2012 I have the QB's going as follows: 2 – Jacksonville – Tyler Wilson (QB – Arkansas), 9 – Oakland – Logan Thomas (QB – Va. Tech.), 10 – Seattle – Matt Barkley (QB – U.S.C.),15 – Arizona – Tyler Bray (QB – Tennessee). I believe that once people watched the tape and evaluated Wilson properly he would have gone ahead of Barkley, unless a WCO team picked Barkley first as a scheme fit (I will re-post my initial evaluations of both if you want), which I thought then and feel know is the only team he will get picked by. Wilson announced early that he was returning so this mock is the first one I did with the two of them in it.
My "prospect crush" on Wilson has nothing to do with appeasing Vidae or other SWDC folk, I annoy them regularly, and everything to do with having believed and continuing to believe that Wilson is the better NFL QB prospect.
Honestly, if Cleveland does not take Barkely had he declared I think Miami takes Tannehill or Wilson had he declared, Buffalo probably takes the other and Barkley falls to Seattle or someone else, barring a trade up. So hypothetically speaking I think their are two scenerios that make me say yes and no. With a gun to my head, I think Cleveland still takes Richardson, then is more likely to trade up and take Barkley, with Tannehill and Wilson going before Barkley. Miami likely taking Tannehill still due to his athleticism, arm strength, and familiarity with Sherman, and Buffalo taking Wilson (He fits Nix's drafting philosophy to a T).

Hermstheman83
12-13-2012, 11:03 PM
What connection?

Also, lol@ Barkley going #1 overall.

Do they still make you guys' take geography classes in the california elementary school? I thought USC was close to Oakland, nothing like being able to cheer on a homegrown trojan QB for the Oakland raiders. I've read multiple reports he would have went ahead of Tannehill last year...so I wouldn't assume that's that far out of the question.

nobodyinparticular
12-14-2012, 12:14 AM
Do they still make you guys' take geography classes in the california elementary school? I thought USC was close to Oakland, nothing like being able to cheer on a homegrown trojan QB for the Oakland raiders. I've read multiple reports he would have went ahead of Tannehill last year...so I wouldn't assume that's that far out of the question.

Well, sure USC is closer to Oakland than New York. But there is absolutely no geographical connection between Oakland and USC. The cultures are so entirely different between northern Cal in the Bay Area and southern Cal in LA. And I have lived in both areas.

Just no.

Just for reference, the distance between USC and O.co Coliseum is almost exactly the distance between Pittsburgh and NYC and twice the distance between Boston and NYC. Would you ever hear anyone say "He went to school/grew up in Pittsburgh, so clearly the Jets should draft him"?

TACKLE
12-14-2012, 12:35 AM
Would you ever hear anyone say "He went to school/grew up in Pittsburgh, so clearly the Jets should draft him"?

Well...Aliquippa don't miss.