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morknolle
04-08-2007, 12:44 PM
I'm currently re-working a couple different ideas for mock drafts. Obviously the vast majority of you guys (and everyone else) concedes that Calvin Johnson would be the optimal pick for you guys, however in one of my mock ideas he's gone at your pick. If Calvin is gone, who do you think would be the best/most likely pick for your team?

I just don't see you guys going with Adrian Peterson (I've seen that suggested a few places) after taking Cadillac Williams at #5 a couple years ago, plus I think Gruden is in "win-now" mode and adding Peterson doesn't bring a whole lot to your team.

I think Brady Quinn would be a possibility if available, however going along with that win now theme I don't know that he's ready to start over at QB, although at the same time drafting Quinn and giving him significant playing time this year could buy him an extra year at head coach if you guys don't do so well again. What do you think on the possibility of taking Quinn? If somehow both Quinn and Russell are both available, I think Quinn is more of Gruden's type of QB, so I think he'd be the preferred pick, but if Quinn is somehow gone and Russell is available do you think he gets any consideration at all?

I think Joe Thomas would be another option if he's available. Your OLine isn't the worst in the league by any means but it could use some improvement, although you have already brought in Lehr and Petitgout for whatever that's worth.

Outside of that, I think Gaines Adams is probably the most likely pick. I personally like Jamaal Anderson a little better but Adams is the best pure pass rusher available and a very good DE, especially for your cover 2 system. Anderson could be a possibility as he's also a very good pass rusher and is stronger against the run, but Adams is the more polished player right now and I think is generally regarded as the better prospect at this point.

Amobi Okoye would be a nice fit for you guys as well, and while I like him as well if not better than Adams I don't think that is the general consensus among everyone else, and generally DEs have much higher value than DTs and would be taken first if they are of relatively equal talent. I saw Pat Kirwan's latest mock that had you guys taking Alan Branch at #5 and that made no sense, Okoye is a much better fit for you guys but I think #4 is too high for him.

Likewise LaRon Landry is a very good prospect but is at a position of even lower perceived value than DE/DT. He would fill a need for you guys, but #4 is too high for him.

Outside of the guys I mentioned, are there any other possibilities? Do you think it is fairly likely you'd try to trade up to say #2 to grab Calvin (assuming the Raiders don't take him which I'm not willing to assume at this point) to make sure the Lions, Browns or someone else don't grab him? If Calvin is indeed gone, do you think you'd stay at #4 and grab whoever you like best between Adams, Quinn, etc. or do you think you would try to trade back a few spots and grab whoever is left at that point (however, if Calvin is gone I don't know who would be trading up to this spot, other than maybe Arizona giving up a mid-round pick to move up one spot and ensure they grab Joe Thomas, if he's availalbe). Any thoughts/opinions/ideas? Thanks in advance.

Tampa 2 4 life
04-08-2007, 01:15 PM
Gruden Loves Okoye, it doesn't matter if its not the general consensus pick, I think most likely thats who we go with.

morknolle
04-08-2007, 01:22 PM
Gruden Loves Okoye, it doesn't matter if its not the general consensus pick, I think most likely thats who we go with.

Do you think you'd just take him at #4 or try to trade back a few spots if possible? Minnesota may be willing to move up to grab Gaines Adams or even one of the QB (although I don't think they move up for a QB).

Tampa 2 4 life
04-08-2007, 02:35 PM
Do you think you'd just take him at #4 or try to trade back a few spots if possible? Minnesota may be willing to move up to grab Gaines Adams or even one of the QB (although I don't think they move up for a QB).

I think in that situation we'll look for a trading partner, but if not, I think we'd just take him at 4.

-black
04-08-2007, 03:04 PM
Im starting to think (have for awhile now) Gruden would take Okoye. But me personally I would want Landry. I would hope we could trade back, but we would have to have a willing trade partner to do so and I really dont see one. So Im thinking either Adams or Okoye

Caddy
04-08-2007, 07:33 PM
I'd still lead towards Adams at this stage. Only from a pure value perspective. Nobody is really sure what is going on in Grudens mind so your guess is as good as mine.

etk
04-09-2007, 01:25 AM
I appreciate your write-up and I like to see how seriously you take this situation. You basically nailed any possibilities with what you said. Media speculations tends to lean towards us taking Okoye one way or the other. That is the pick that I think we will make and it makes the most sense, but that is merely speculation based on our roster needs and Grudens infatuation. Adams, Anderson & Thomas are all genuine possibilities as well, but I find it unlikely for us to take AD, Quinn or Landry.

Watchman
04-09-2007, 11:41 AM
I think a dark horse candidate may be Branch, which would disappoint me.

For whatever it is worth I think the Bucs' board goes CJ - Thomas - Okoye/Adams.

But who the hell really knows. I think most of the Peterson/QB talk from Gruden is simple smokescreens that really don't fool anyone.

-black
04-09-2007, 12:00 PM
hopefully that smoke screen entices the Bills to trade with us if CJ is off the board. I would have no problem trading back to 12 and picking up multiple first day picks (or maybe 1 next year).

etk
04-09-2007, 12:17 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/peter_king/04/08/mmqb/index.html

If we trade down it probably won't be for much, and we won't pick up "multiple first-day picks"

-black
04-09-2007, 12:32 PM
it would all depend on how much the Bills valued AD. While its a guideline, its not 100% followed depending on the player. I would hope they valued AD enough to ship a 2nd and 3rd, even tho it would be me hoping, and not it being likely

etk
04-09-2007, 12:38 PM
Basically the point I am trying to make is that we should all ignore the draft value chart. It's going to be rare to see a team trade up to the top 10 while sticking to the chart. If CJ is unavailable, I will be content with trading down for next to nothing and taking Okoye. Even if we don't get significant draft picks, we still save guaranteed money on contracts. I will be very disappointed if we stick at #4 and take him, because there's no way a team won't give up a 3rd+ rounder to move up to 4.

-black
04-09-2007, 01:17 PM
Im hoping we trade down, but honestly, who would be interested in trading with us? what team?

etk
04-09-2007, 01:18 PM
Im hoping we trade down, but honestly, who would be interested in trading with us? what team?

Any team would be interested if the price is low. That's what I'm hoping we do.

-black
04-09-2007, 01:25 PM
Any team would be interested if the price is low. That's what I'm hoping we do.

In class today I sat looking at the top 15 for an hour trying to figure out possible trade scenario's. If CJ is gone, and the QB's then a team would not just want to get into the top 4 just because. They have to have a targeted player. I carefuly looked, and could not find any team that would want to be in the top 4 (unless for Thomas, CJ, or a QB). So I dont think "any team" if the price is low. They dont want to get into the top 4 to pay top 4 money to a player what is not highly valued by them. Most teams would be contempt staying put. I honestly think we could be stuck at 4 regardless, because management wont trade back for anything less than at least a 3rd round pick

-black
04-09-2007, 01:31 PM
you tell me


5. Arizona, the only player they could trade up for is Joe Thomas, who most likely will fall to them anyway.

6. Skins, will not trade up, dont have the ammo and want to trade down actually

7. Would only possibly trade up for CJ, and we wont trade back if CJ is on the board. They could trade with Cleveland but not us.

9. Falcons are in the same boat as the Vikings except Landry is their target player. No need to trade to 4 to get him. Plus they are an in-division rival

10. Texans, gave up day one picks...they are not trading up. One could say they would want AD to go along with Scaub. But with them already unloading their 2nd, what is the likelyhood of the Bucs moving down 6 spots in the top 10 for a 3rd round pick? Would I do it? possibly...would management do it? Not likely

11. 49ers, who would they want to trade up for?

12. Bills, could POSSIBLY want to trade up for Adrian Peterson.

and after that almost all %'s of a fair trade for both teams are out. The needs dont even match

etk
04-09-2007, 01:34 PM
Don't worry, there are plenty of teams that might consider trading up for: Thomas, QB, Peterson, Landry, etc. The question is how will we comply and will we try to maximize the value of our pick. Even if we trade down for a 7th rounder, it will still be more valuable than simply drafting Okoye, which would be poor management. I'd like to think that we won't be stubborn and we will settle for the best offer, in the case that we target Amobi.

etk
04-09-2007, 01:39 PM
You left out Miami at 9. I think Miami is the most-likely scenario for many reasons:

1) They definitely need Thomas, Landry or one of the QBs. I could definitely see them leapfrogging Arizona and taking Thomas by trading with us. They also have additional picks after the Welker trade :)

2) Trading down to 9 would be an optimal scenario. Houston is sitting at 10 and there is no guarantee that they won't take Okoye. #9 is the lowest pick we could go to while still having the guarantee of Okoye being available. That is maximizing our value.

-black
04-09-2007, 01:48 PM
I made a mock draft today in class with trades (something I never do)...this is what I came up with

1. Raiders-Calvin Johnson

Det trades pick to Falcons in return for a 2nd rounder and 3rd

2. Falcons-Joe Thomas

3. Browns-Jamarcus Russell

Bucs trade 4th pick to Dolphins in return for a 2nd round pick (the Phins 1st 2nd rounder)

4. Phins-Brady Quinn

5. Cardinals-Gaines Adams

Skins trade pick to Patriots

Skins Get : A. Samel and 28th pick
Pats get: 6th pick and S. Springs

6. Patriots-Laron Landry

Vikings trade pick to Bills for 12th, 3rd, and late round pick

7. Bills-Adrian Peterson

8. Lions-Pat Willis

9. Bucs-Amobi Okoye

10. Texans-Adam Carriker

I was just fooling around, but I would hope we could trade with Miami if Quinn fell (or Joe Thomas).

etk
04-09-2007, 01:51 PM
There will never be that many trades in the top 10, read the Peter King article.

-black
04-09-2007, 01:56 PM
there will never be 4 trades in the top 10? (2 of them, were trade predicitons BEFORE draft day...the Lions/Atl trade and Skins/Pats trade)

anywa, like I said I was fooling around, cuz I never do mock trades. But I was looking for willing trade partners and possible scenarios

etk
04-09-2007, 01:57 PM
there will never be 4 trades in the top 10?

anywa, like I said I was fooling around, cuz I never do mock trades. But I was looking for willing trade partners and possible scenarios

I made a mock where every pick was traded, just to see what possible scenarios I could come up with. It was kinda realistic, and a lot of teams got the guy they really wanted and targeted because of it.

-black
04-09-2007, 02:05 PM
just as recently as 2001 there were 3 trades (including pre-draft trades like i predicted) in the top 10. I dont think it would be a stretch to see one more happen

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_NFL_Draft#Round_one

etk
04-09-2007, 02:09 PM
just as recently as 2001 there were 3 trades (including pre-draft trades like i predicted) in the top 10. I dont think it would be a stretch to see one more happen

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_NFL_Draft#Round_one

I'm well aware, but the past is not an indicator of the future in this case. Teams have invested a lot of money and other draft picks in order to trade up, and it rarely ends up as an unquestioned success. It is going to become more and more rare, but if trade-ups do happen they won't be for full draft chart value.