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View Full Version : Please Evaluate My Mock Draft!


aggiecrew
04-19-2007, 12:29 PM
I'd really like some well-informed people who actually truly follow the nfl draft and are very savy about the draft and this year's class and team needs to evaluate my mock draft...

This is just the first 5 picks.

1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell

After deliberating on whether to draft Russell or Johnson, the team realizes that there aren't any good veteran QB's available on the market, so even though it kills Al Davis to pass on Johnson, they just simply need the player. If Dante Culpepper were healthy, then it might be different. Al Davis would dream of re-creating the Viking's Culpepper-to-Moss days of a few years ago except this time with Johnson on board as well to create a nightmare for defensive coordinators trying to double-team both johnson and moss and at the same time control the run game. Al Davis still really wants to take Johnson anyway, even without Culpepper, but passes to take his dream QB.

2. Cleveland Browns (via Detroit) - Brady Quinn

After getting just about every trade scenario possible thrown at them by many different teams ready to trade up, the Lions realize they can get the player they want and still squeeze their draft position for everything they can. The first trade comes from Cleveland, who are threatened by the Dolphins offering up a gargantuan trade package to move into the number 2 spot and take Quinn. The Lions consider this offer thoroughly and are tempted by the treasure chest being flashed in front of them which includes a first-round pick in the 2008 draft, but the Lions decide that the number 9 spot is too far to trade back because they have their eyes set on a certain player.

For Cleveland, it's not so much an admission that Charlie Frye isn't the guy/lack of faith in Frye as it is a combination of the following: the uncertainty at the position since the re-opening of the franchise and the rare chance to draft a franchise level QB prospect this high in the draft. Who knows what their draft position will be in the future? This year is it very high and they want to take advantage of it by taking a QB.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Cleveland through Detroit) - Calvin Johnson

The Lions start to show what a great draft this will end up being for them as they once again trade down 1 spot. They could have traded with Tampa Bay directly, but would not have gotten as much out it. Technically this would also have put them at risk of losing their guy as well, since a team like arizona could have traded with up cleveland and taken him with cleveland still getting the chance to still get Quinn at number 5. However, if Cleveland were THAT serious about Quinn, I think they would just take him at number 3 and not run the risk of losing him. Therefore, I think from Detroit's perspective, the only advantage to not trading with Tampa Bay directly is that they won't get as many picks, which is still enough of a reason to warrant not trading directly.

As for Tampa Bay, there is an argument to be made that Joe Thomas makes much more sense for them than Johnson given that they already have some good receivers on the roster and badly need a great Left Tackle, but Johnson is a once-in-a generation player who can so much for the "must-win-now" Bucs, that if the Bucs can just get some solid but not great play from their left tackle in '07, the rewards from Johnson will be well worth it.

4. Detroit Lions (via Tampa Bay) - Gaines Adams

The Lions had their sights set on Gaines Adams as their guy all along and now are able to get him along with plenty of extra picks. The Lions, who have been heavily critized for their draft picks in the past, pull off an operation that will be talked about for years. The Lions trade down once from the number 2 spot to the number 3 spot to pick up extra picks, then they trade down again from the number 3 spot to the number 4 spot to pick up extra picks...and still get Gaines Adams.

5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas

The Cardinals have sat back the last 3 months with a grin on their faces thinking that Gaines Adams was just going to fall right into their laps at number 5. This didn't happen but there's a huge bright side to this. Joe Thomas, who had been projected to go much higher, falls to them at number 5. They'd rather have Adams, but Thomas fills a big need and leaves them very satisfied.


PLEASE COMMENT!!!! but only if you have a genuine response. please do not respond to criticize this thread for only having 5 picks. just ignore the thread if you aren't interested.


THANKS!!!!

TheGunShow
04-19-2007, 01:24 PM
The draft is longer than five picks!

aggiecrew
04-19-2007, 01:34 PM
ok, I'll rephrase....

please evaluate my picks and analysis for the top of the draft.

thank you.

Go_Eagles77
04-19-2007, 02:03 PM
Not many people are gonna comment on 5 picks, but I guess I will. It looks good, but I don't think the Bucs are gonna trade up with the browns to get Calvin Johnson, I don't think there is a good chance the Browns would choose him.

aggiecrew
04-19-2007, 02:14 PM
That's not what I have written down.

In my scenario, Detroit trades down twice. They trade with cleveland first down to number 3.

THEN, they trade from number 3 down to number 4.

Tampa bay does not trade with cleveland. I'll see if it will let me edit my original post to make this more clear.

PoopSandwich
04-19-2007, 02:24 PM
So Detroit just keeps trading down? Why wouldnt you just have Detroit trade down to 4 and Tampa move up to 2, its a lot more realistic, I doubt Cleveland trades up for Quinn.

aggiecrew
04-19-2007, 02:37 PM
I answer your question in my original post.

The Browns trade up to number 2 because the Lions threaten to trade the pick to the Dolphins (or another team) who would take Quinn.

It's not because the Browns are afraid of the Lions taking Quinn themselves.

Jensen
04-19-2007, 02:43 PM
Um, how did you come up with the Cardinals want Gaines Adams more than Joe Thomas? Joe Thomas is the guy we want, not Adams, any intelligent being should be able to figure that out.

aggiecrew
04-19-2007, 03:04 PM
That part isn't really important, it doesn't really matter whether they wanted adams more than thomas.

what's important here is that they were able to get thomas unexpectedly because of the way the draft shaped up and what turned out to be the other team's agendas.

princefielder28
04-19-2007, 03:10 PM
Thats it!!!!

PoopSandwich
04-19-2007, 03:26 PM
I answer your question in my original post.

The Browns trade up to number 2 because the Lions threaten to trade the pick to the Dolphins (or another team) who would take Quinn.

It's not because the Browns are afraid of the Lions taking Quinn themselves.

You think the Browns would fall for that?

Savage isn't Butch Davis man.

aggiecrew
04-19-2007, 03:49 PM
I think when you're talking about franchise Quarterbacks, when you're talking about being this high in the draft and taking a franchise quarterback who has the realistic potential to solve your team's uncertainty over the most important position in game, when you've targeted him as "your guy" and will give him over $20 million in guaranteed money....it's worth it to give something up to know for CERTAIN that another team will not get him.

ripdw27
04-19-2007, 08:13 PM
great denver pick... wait wtf finish up the draft son first 5 picks are the easy ones

neko4
04-19-2007, 08:39 PM
nobody wants to grade 5 picks, its boring and we've seen these picks before, just in a different order

RaiderNation
04-19-2007, 08:44 PM
okay raider pick

aggiecrew
04-19-2007, 08:53 PM
personally, I think it's more interesting to have a deeper discussion on a fewer number of pics than have little one-phrase posts on a larger number of pics. To me the boring thing is when it's just a list of 32 players with no analysis and all the responses to the
thread are just things like, "nice eagles pic."

that's why I wrote a lot of analysis on just a few pics.

but to each their own.

really though, if you're not interested in this thread, then just post on other people's threads and ignore mine.

I'm not interested in a discussion on which types of threads are best, just ignore this thread if you don't like it.

now moving on...

I'm looking for people who are interested in evaluating the "story" so to speak, that I tell on how I think the top of the draft will unfold. let me know if you agree or disagree with the scenario I've written and why.

Thanks!

Scotty D
04-19-2007, 09:41 PM
Nice trade down my friend.

Steel Curtain XL
04-20-2007, 02:14 AM
I don't think the Browns are as interested in Quinn as people seem to think. I say they stay where they are. They'll either get Russell, CJ or Quinn. If CJ is there they take him and offer him in a trade to get extra draft picks. If TB still wants him Cle gets the 4th spot and an additional pick and they can still take Joe thomas. If CJ is gone then they have their choice of one of the QB's(probably Quinn) or whoever or trade down. But I don't think they trade up.
P.S.
You should do 6-10 in a day or so. Then 11-15 and so on. That'd be original!

aggiecrew
04-20-2007, 10:34 AM
hi thanks for the good repsonse.

I think that even if Cleveland aren't interested in Quinn, the only way that CJ would fall to them at number 3 would be if the Lions get a trade offer from a team THINKS cleveland could take Quinn and want to jump in front of them to prevent it.

My scenario that shows the trade up for Quinn assumes that Russell is gone and so they have the possibility of either CJ or Quinn. It's a good argument that they could see if CJ drops and then trade the ability to get him for more picks, but you have to weigh what they'd get with that option versus the option of trading up and getting Quinn.

Even they aren't completely 100% sold on Quinn, it makes sense to me that
Quinn minus a pick or 2 VERSUS another player like maybe peterson + a pick or 2 actually would weigh out in favor of the former.

The potential to get a franchise QB is serious business. It's the most important position in the game and the potential to solve it with Quinn, even if it's no quarantee and you aren't 100% on him and you have to give up a pick or 2 to get him, outweighs what you'd get by trading away the right to get Johnson.

Steel Curtain XL
04-21-2007, 12:37 AM
Yeah but if they give up a pick or two to get Quinn they still aren't gonna be able to protect him. Look at David Carr. I still think if they would've got him a decent OL he would be a top 5 QB. But they couldn't protect him. I think they should get as many 2nd and 3rd rd picks as they can and build that OL, get a young NT, get a young CB etc. If they take quinn and can't protect him, he's just gonna lay on his back and take a huge chunk out of their salary cap for the next 5 years.

neko4
04-21-2007, 12:39 AM
Yeah but if they give up a pick or two to get Quinn they still aren't gonna be able to protect him. Look at David Carr. I still think if they would've got him a decent OL he would be a top 5 QB. But they couldn't protect him. I think they should get as many 2nd and 3rd rd picks as they can and build that OL, get a young NT, get a young CB etc. If they take quinn and can't protect him, he's just gonna lay on his back and take a huge chunk out of their salary cap for the next 5 years.
exactly, his entire time in HOu they never seemed to attempt to fix it

aggiecrew
04-21-2007, 09:42 AM
hi guys,

Certainly, I think that is a great argument. I've followed Carr and the Texans and I agree with you that with a better O-line, there would be no doubts about Carr. Also, championship teams can be built without the best QB's in the game. With great defense and a great running game, you can get by with "solid" play from the QB, just enough to keep the defense off balance to keep the running game going.

I'm actually a huge proponent of O-line as the being far underrated as to its importance in the game of football. I believe the running game is the way to do it in the NFL and a huge part of running the ball effectively is the O-line. Therefore, I think O-line should be at the forefront of your offensive staffing needs.

However, that being said, let's take a look at the Texans situation had they had that philosophy in the 2002 draft. You could take any scenario as the example, we could say they took peppers instead of carr, we could say that they traded down for more picks, whatever. In any case, we're talking about them NOT going with Carr.

Ok, if they didn't take Carr, another team would have, and that team, presumably with a better O-line would have flourished with the great QB and the Texans would seem like idiots for not using their great draft position (number 1 overall) to get a great player at the most important position. (I still believe QB is the most important SINGLE position, even though I am a big O-line proponent)

So should the Texans have passed on the chance to the take Carr? I don't believe so. I think they did the right thing by taking Carr. I think the Texans went wrong with subsequent personnel decisions. For example, in 2005, New Orleans jumped ahead of the Texans and took Jammal Brown, who went to the Pro Bowl this past year. If the Texans would have outbid New Orleans for that pick, they could have had Brown this past year protecting Carr. Keep in mind what a great year Drew Brees had this past year with Brown protecting him.

So I think the Texans did the right thing by taking Carr, just like the Browns will understand that it's about draft position. Who knows if Quinn is a Carr-level prospect? Maybe so maybe not. But it's about the fact they can use their draft position wisely this year, and then make the best possible personnel decisions in the future (future draft and future free-agency) for the other positions.

Crow
04-21-2007, 11:39 AM
hi guys,

Certainly, I think that is a great argument. I've followed Carr and the Texans and I agree with you that with a better O-line, there would be no doubts about Carr. Also, championship teams can be built without the best QB's in the game. With great defense and a great running game, you can get by with "solid" play from the QB, just enough to keep the defense off balance to keep the running game going.

I'm actually a huge proponent of O-line as the being far underrated as to its importance in the game of football. I believe the running game is the way to do it in the NFL and a huge part of running the ball effectively is the O-line. Therefore, I think O-line should be at the forefront of your offensive staffing needs.

However, that being said, let's take a look at the Texans situation had they had that philosophy in the 2002 draft. You could take any scenario as the example, we could say they took peppers instead of carr, we could say that they traded down for more picks, whatever. In any case, we're talking about them NOT going with Carr.

Ok, if they didn't take Carr, another team would have, and that team, presumably with a better O-line would have flourished with the great QB and the Texans would seem like idiots for not using their great draft position (number 1 overall) to get a great player at the most important position. (I still believe QB is the most important SINGLE position, even though I am a big O-line proponent)

So should the Texans have passed on the chance to the take Carr? I don't believe so. I think they did the right thing by taking Carr. I think the Texans went wrong with subsequent personnel decisions. For example, in 2005, New Orleans jumped ahead of the Texans and took Jammal Brown, who went to the Pro Bowl this past year. If the Texans would have outbid New Orleans for that pick, they could have had Brown this past year protecting Carr. Keep in mind what a great year Drew Brees had this past year with Brown protecting him.

So I think the Texans did the right thing by taking Carr, just like the Browns will understand that it's about draft position. Who knows if Quinn is a Carr-level prospect? Maybe so maybe not. But it's about the fact they can use their draft position wisely this year, and then make the best possible personnel decisions in the future (future draft and future free-agency) for the other positions.

Now, if only you had put this much effort into your mock...

Steel Curtain XL
04-22-2007, 10:46 AM
aggie: I agree with you that Qb is the most important position. However with as many needs as the Browns have, trading up is gonna hurt them. They can't afford to give up picks to get Quinn. Honestly, if they could protect him better, Frye is an adequate QB. He's not great, but he knows the system and he doesn't just make bonehead throws all the time. If Quinn falls to them, then yeah, they'll probably take him. But they're sitting at #3 where they could take either russell, CJ or Quinn. Worst case scenario is the 2 QB's go 1 & 2 and CJ is still there. They could take him and trade down, even if only 1 spot, get a 3rd rder and still get Thomas to anchor that OL for the next 10+ years. Or even better, they could trade down to, say Atlanta at #8. They'd get at least a 2nd and 3rd and probably still be able to get AP.

aggiecrew
04-22-2007, 01:00 PM
thanks for the good analysis Steel.

I think you make a great point that the Browns have lot of needs and need the picks that they'd use to trade up in order to fill those needs.

But think about this. My position is that Detroit can get out of Tampa pretty much the same deal by trading up from number 2 to number 4 as they can trading down from number 3 to number 4. It's about the opportunity to get Calvin Johnson. In terms of draft picks given up by Tampa, I doubt they really care whether they get Johnson at number 2 or number 3 as long as they get him.

So I'm assuming that Detroit has the opportunity to make the same trade with Tampa whether they first trade down with Cleveland or not.

Assuming that they will make the deal with Tampa either way, it makes sense that they can get at least SOMETHING out of Cleveland beforehand by threatening to trade the pick to a team that will take Quinn

Even if Cleveland doesn't buy the threat because they don't think Detroit will want to move down past the number 4 spot, it STILL makes sense that they give up something small in order to be SURE.

When I said in an earlier post that it makes sense for them to give up a pick or 2 to know for SURE they get Quinn, I never said that the pick or 2 had to be high draft picks. It could be a 6th or 7th round pick. I don't think the Browns will be counting on filling their needs with their 6th or 7th round pick anyway, and Detroit may as well get SOMETHING in addition to what they'll get from Tampa. I mean, I think Detroit will try to get everything they can with Tampa plus the bonus of getting a little something extra from the
Browns.

Remember in last year's draft when the Browns got a 6th round pick from the Ravens to swap spots in the draft. (spots 12 and 13) Why? presumably because of threat tactics. according to the value chart, the difference between the 12th pick and the 13th pick in the first round is 50 points. Now a 6th round pick is worth a lot less than 50 points on the chart. So why did this trade happen then? because the chart doesn't matter, it's not about the difference in value, it's about giving up a small something in order to be SURE you get the player you want.

I think for my draft scenario NOT to play out, the Browns have to either be REALLY sold on Frye as the team's QB of the future OR have their value rating of Quinn be far lower than their draft position OR generally not be able to see much of a difference between Frye and Quinn.

aggiecrew
04-23-2007, 12:52 PM
man, the draft is getting close now. It's going to be really interesting to see which mock-drafter on this site gets the closest.

If anyone else who has posted their mock on here would like to respectfully
disagree with my picks and offer their opinion and explanation on why they believe their scenario is more likely to play out, I would be very interested in hearing what you have to say.

please check out the rest of the thread first though to see if someone else has already made your argument.

But again, if you'd only want to reply to critisize for there only being 5 picks or any other petty response, then please ignore this thread. serious responses about the draft content only please.

Thanks!

eaglesalltheway
04-23-2007, 02:38 PM
Don;t just do the top five picks. They are the easiest and there is very little to actually evaluate. Do at least a complete round next time.

aggiecrew
04-23-2007, 03:31 PM
Like I've said several times already, just ignore this thread if you aren't interested in it.

If you're gonna say something about only being 5 picks, just ignore the thread.

Now moving on....

I'm still open to hearing someone's story of how it's going to go down on draft day in contrast to the scenario that I have written.

aggiecrew
04-27-2007, 12:53 PM
updated draft. Final mock:


1. Oakland - Russell

same analysis as before.

2. Tampa Bay (via Detroit) - Calvin Johnson

Tampa Bay outbids Atlanta

3. Cleveland - Joe Thomas

Cleveland agrees with my analysis but also confirms my speculation that they can't see much difference between Quinn and Frye at this point. Savage wants to be at Cleveland for the the long haul and makes the safe pick to continue the slow and steady team-building process.

4. Detroit (via Tampa Bay) - Gaines Adams

5. Minnesota (via Arizona) - LaRon Landry

With both Thomas and Adams off the board, Arizona decides they can trade down and still get either Brown, Anderson, or Peterson. Minnesota jumps ahead to get in front of Washington to get Landry, who will be very important for the Minnesota cover 2.

6. Washington - Okoye

With Landry gone, the Redskins go for option number 2 and are still happy.

7. Arizona (via Minnesota) - Brown

Arizona lucks out that a Landry-hungry Vikings team was willing to give them something extra in order to trade up. The Cards can now justify taking Brown because of the position.

8. Atlanta - Anderson

Frustrated Atlanta misses out on both Johnson and Landry, but still gets a good player.

9. Miami - Quinn

Lucky Miami gets their guy.

10. Denver (via Houston) - Willis

With Brown and Thomas gone, the Texans are happy to get more picks to fill more needs.

11. SF- Carriker

SF gets a guy who can play 3-4 defensive end and helps them keep building.

12. Buffalo - Revis

with Clements gone via free agency, and a lot of other players they might want gone already at this point in the draft, they take Revis. They consider Branch, but go with what they consider the best CB.

13. STL - Hall

Like the Bills, The Rams were more impressed with Revis. They don't get him so they go with Hall. Of course, who they really wanted was Willis.

14. Car - Nelson

they like olsen too but consider their need at safety to be more important and this might be a bit high for olsen.



that's about enough. don't reply to criticize there only being 14 picks, just ignore the thread if you aren't interested.

otherwise, please comment on these picks and also on the discussion we've being having on this thread so far.

THANKS!