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View Full Version : My Most Recent 1st Round Scenario


toonsterwu
04-21-2007, 05:59 AM
It's been awhile. With trades. A lot ... and fair to critique that as well. Short comment 1st round scenario. It is what it is, a scenario. Iíve got a couple other scenarios, some CJ-Raiders scenarios as well. Tough draft to figure out to begin with, since the 2nd tier of overall talent is so bunched together, but made moreso by the fact that, despite being this late in the cycle, thereís a lot of uncertainty at the top of the draft. As always, could always change by tomorrow. Not sure if Iíll extend this, as I might not have the time to do it soon enough, and significant changes could have happened by then.

1. Oakland Raiders

Man Ö I so want to go with the flow and go with the Calvin Johnson pick here Ö but

Oakland Raiders pick: QB Jamarcus Russell, LSU

Personal comment: Iíve said all along that I donít think the Raiders can go wrong with either Jamarcus or Calvin, but I do believe Russell is the correct move.

2. Detroit Lions

Whoís going to blink first? The Lions, in all honesty, need Tampa Bay to deal up, because it leaves them in range for Adams. The Buccaneers love Calvin Ö but may not be willing to go all out in a deal. Everyone seems to be mocking a Tampa Bay trade Ö where thereís smoke, thereís usually something Ö Washington, Atlanta are also looking but they either lack assets (Skins) or arenít as well positioned (Atlanta). In the end,

Projected Trade:

Tampa Bay gets the 2nd overall
Detroit gets the 4th, 35th, and 68th overall

Value is a perfect. In the end, I think Tampa Bay blinks moreso than Detroit does. They are the team gunning for the asset, and Detroit may get a few other offers. Itís not as if Tampa Bay is paying through the hilt value wise (as the numbers work out to be a perfect match), but I think they are hoping to get a deal on the cheap, which I don't think they'll find. Both teams are hoping for Oakland to take Russell, as Detroit gets its trade options, and Tampa Bay doesnít have to give up all their day 1 picks, and potentially more.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick: WR Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech

Personal comment: If Detroit can get a deal, itís good for them. Count me in the group that thinks Tampaís infatuation with Calvin Johnson might not be in the best interest of the team. Donít get me wrong, it doesnít hurt them, as heís a fabulous talent who will help Ö but using their picks might give them the ability to create a younger core much quicker. But Chucky and Bruce need to win fast.

3. Cleveland Browns

I honestly think that Savageís preference is Russell Ö and then Peterson. Does he have enough sway left, as the current leadership is hanging perilously? Weíll see. Hey, maybe Iím wrong on the order of preference. The guess here is Ö

Cleveland Browns pick: QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame

Personal comment: I have to say Ö Iím not sure what to think here. Iím not sure this is a great move Ö but Iím not sure thereís any move here thatís great for the franchise. It might be a good long term move Ö but when you factor in that long term would likely mean another regime Ö then you have a young QB going through a couple regimes, which isnít the best.

4. Detroit Lions f/ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

They move down and get their guy. They are one of the few high teams where I think it makes sense to go

Detroit Lions pick: DE Gaines Adams, Clemson

Personal comment: It makes sense to focus on the trenches. If Rogers is back in form, the three deep end chart and more experience could make the defense a stronger unit capable of balancing out what should be a solid offense.

5. Arizona Cardinals

Iíve been talking about how Arizona liked Levi Brown a lot for awhile. Is it a smokescreen? Would they go value (which would probably be Thomas)? The guess here is

Projected Trade:

Atlanta gets the 5th overall
Arizona gets the 8th, 75th, 109th overall

Valueís fine. I know thereís a site that says Atlanta is looking down Ö but Iím not sold on that. Do they have options sitting pat? Sure. Might they prefer to get aggressive and land someone they want? I think Washington and Miami might both be calling, but Washington lacks assets, and Miami isnít as well positioned.

Atlanta Falcons pick: S Laron Landry, LSU

Personal comment: Iíll stick with my value mantra Ö I think Laron Landry would be a ďreachĒ if he goes in the top 5. Heís good, a solid 10 year starter type, but it wouldnít surprise me in the least if, say, 2 of the other safeties had equally solid careers. For my money, Iíd still bank on Reggie Nelson to be a stud in the pros. That said, not that strong of a draft, fits a need, and while the Falcons would have options by staying put, if they can make a deal without forking over their 2nd rounders, it might be hard to pass up.

6. Washington Redskins

They love Landry Ö but they lack the assets to make the move. They also like Okoye Ö do they love Okoye? Thatíll be interesting to see. They could very well do a veteran trade, but if not, I could see Miami, Buffalo, and St. Louis calling, for 3 different reasons (Thomas/Peterson/Okoye). Whatís the call? In the end, I think they would deal in this scenario. Not sure Buffalo is willing to pay the ransom to get up here Ö and not sure St. Louis can trump Miami. In the end

Projected Trade:

Miami gets the 6th overall
Washington gets the 9th and 71st overall

Iím just not sold Miami stays at 9, which is somewhat of a no manís land. Washington certainly is amenable to dealing Ö up or down. The situationís clearly improved for them over the past month, in regards to the positioning at 6.

Miami Dolphins pick: OT Joe Thomas, Wisconsin

Personal comment: Iím not gung ho on Thomas, but I he is a solid early first draft value due to position and potentially fills a key area for the Fins. It makes sense for Washington to deal down in such a deep draft, especially since they lack assets.

7. Minnesota Vikings

What do they do here? Iím very tempted to go a deal, but in the end, I jump on the bandwagon and go with

Minnesota Vikings pick: RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma

Personal comment: Change of heart here. It works for me. Safety, end, QB and WR value are questionable here, and itís a 2-back league more than ever. Peterson doesnít handle the load by himself early on, potentially lengthening his career. A strong run game is the best way to protect a young QB.

8. Arizona Cardinals f/ Houston Texans via Atlanta Falcons

They slide down, pick up a few extra assets, and potentially land the guy they wanted. Itís possible that they jump on Adrian or Joe Thomas at 5 Ö but as of doing this scenario, I am not sold.

Arizona Cardinals pick: OT Levi Brown, Penn State

Personal comment: Iím on the group that think Levi Brown in the top 10 is on account of the planet theory. That said Ö I think it works for me. I think he can fit their scheme, particularly since many believe heís better off as a RT anyways, which would be Leinartís blindside.

9. Washington Redskins f/ Miami Dolphins

What happens here? Could they deal gain? I certainly wouldnít rule it out. That said, I think theyíd be content to landing a guy they like in

Washington Redskins pick: DT Amobi Okoye, Louisville

Personal comment: As an individual partial to caring about the Redskins, my greatest fear here is Ted Ginn Jr. Iím going against it Ö but itís something to watch and keep in mind, I think, amongst the numerous Redskins possibilities. Maybe another deal comes along, but they need DL help, and Okoye fits the bill. Okoye and Golston would buy each other time in some respects.

10. Houston Texans

A lot of mixed signals on the Texans in the last couple of days. I was working with the offense theory Ö and a flurry of talk on CB has emerged. That said, I think their preference is to deal down. Will they? If not, what then? Offense or CB? The valueís at corner Ö but the more pressing need might be to actually provide that offense. Nod goes to

Projected Trade:

Buffalo gets the 10th overall
Houston gets the 12th and 111th overall, plus a 4th rounder in 2008

Of the flurry of trades so far, this one is the one Iím most ambivalent about. Thereís buzz that Buffalo might be happy with Posluszny or Beason Ö but in the end, do they chance the Niners taking

Buffalo Bills pick: LB Patrick Willis, Mississippi

Personal comment: In all honesty, I think the Bills are better off with Beason at WLB and Crowell at MIKE than they are with whatever combination of Willis/Crowell. That said, Willis might be too tantalizing, and has the better value.

11. San Francisco 49ers

They may get tempted to join the flurry of trades, but in the end, they probably sit pat. I think the one DL that makes the most sense might get the nod, and that is

San Francisco 49ers pick: DL Adam Carriker, Nebraska

Personal comment: Personally, Iíd look elsewhere. Iím just not sold they need to look DL in round 1, especially since this is a critical year (year 3 of a regime is always big) and they are looking to move up. That said, it makes sense with the age of Young. Carrikerís ideal.

12. Houston Texans f/ Buffalo Bills

They could look to deal again, but I just donít see the options, and as noted, I wasnít completely in love with the move at 10. Thus, a pick, and the nod goes to

Houston Texans pick: WR Ted Ginn Jr., the Ohio State

Personal comment: If Ted Ginn Jr. goes in the top 20, I think a team will have to show real patience. Does Kubiak and Co. have that patience? OL is quite tempting Ö but they may just be wary enough of making a move for Staley here.

13. St. Louis Rams

I just donít see Alan Branch here. If Justin Harrell had another month Ö he might be a thought, as heís definitely on the uptick. Do they look defensive end and Jamaal? In the end, the nod is to

St. Louis Rams pick: CB Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh

Personal comment: Without a glaring need, taking a corner makes some sense. I know some Rams posters believe they are fine, but Bartellís more of a nickel guy long run, and Brown isnít going to block a top talent. Addressing DE/DT in rounds 2 and 3 could allow them to find better fits, and better values.

14. Carolina Panthers

What exactly are the Panthers going to do? A lot of buzz on receiver or Olsen Ö but theyíve actually hidden things real well. In this scenario, I think they go

Carolina Panthers pick: LB Jon ďJessie ArmsteadĒ Beason, the U

Personal comment: Iíve long been a fan of Beason, and I think heíll do great at a number of positions. Olsen is certainly something to watch, and I wouldnít rule out end either. Even WR has to be looked at. A lot of options Ö and a critical decision for a leadership that has to step up. If Ted Ginn Jr. fell a little more, I think they pull the trigger on that move Ö but I donít see them moving up for Ginn Jr.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers

This oneís hard to figure as well. A lot of buzz on a lot of guys, with Timmons as the predominant one being mentioned. How legit is that? Iíll bite

Pittsburgh Steelers pick: LB Lawrence Timmons, Florida State

Personal comment: I want to write in a corner, but if Tomlin finds a guy who he thinks can be a long term stud linebacker for him Ö I think itíll be hard to pass. Especially a guy who might be able to be utilized soon.

16. Green Bay Packers

With 3 teams that run variants of the tampa-2 in house, they need a field stretching TE, and Bubba isnít that. The nod goes to

Green Bay Packers pick: TE Greg Olsen, the U

Personal comment: I am torn between Lynch and Olsen. There seems to be rumors that the Packers might be the team that initiated a lot of the Lynch rumors out there, worried that he might not fall to them. By the next scenario, this may be Lynch. But Olsen has the rare physical potential that might be utilized greatly in this division, while providing a safety blanket for Favre and the future.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Some buzz on CB creeping in Ö but I safety still makes the most sense. Who? The questions about the Uís streak would definitely seem laughable if this happened.

Jacksonville Jaguars pick: S Brandon Meriweather, the U

Personal comment: I still prefer Nelson Ö but I like Meriweather as well. Both are very much in play.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

Is DL a darkhorse possibility? I think so. But if the DB value is there, I think they go that route. I was tempted to go the trade route (Denver in particular)Ö but in the end,

Cincinnati Bengals pick: CB Leon Hall, Michigan

Personal comment: I still think Chris Houston is the best corner in this draft, and I wonder if heís a better fit. But Hall might be tough to pass up, a solid guy able to step in and help immediately.

19. Tennessee Titans

They would be giddy with joy if all these options were available. DE, DT, WR, and CB could all be addressed. So where do they go? The guess here is probably DL, despite glaring holes at WR and CB. Who? The nod goes to

Tennessee Titans pick: DE Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas

Personal comment: A lot of mixed comments on Anderson Ö and he could go high or low, but I think this is about right. Iíve long thought Anderson was loaded with potential Ö but significantly overhyped. Branch is a tempting thought, though.

20. New York Giants

A lot of potential areas to look but

Projected Trade:

Kansas City gets the 20th and 116th overall
New York Giants get the 23rd and 84th overall

Can KC really stand put if Joe Staley is within sight? I canít see it. Staley could start inside, or he could slide Terry/McIntosh inside. Thereís a chance Denver targets Staley Ö so can they afford to wait?

Kansas City Chiefs pick: OT Joe Staley, Central Michigan

Personal comment: Love Staley Ö and if KC can land him, thatís the best route to go, IMO, as it helps shore up the OL, which has gone from a strength to a question, due to age.

21. Denver Broncos

For the longest time, I thought that they may be itching to move up Ö or down. Just not staying in place. If things break this way, though, I think they do stay put and take

Denver Broncos pick: DT Alan Branch, Michigan

Personal comment: Unless the injury questions are really severe, itíll be hard for them to pass. Alan Branch is Jim Bates type of 4-3 DT. Draft status somewhat reminds me of the small fall that Vince Wilfork took a few years ago.

22. Dallas Cowboys

A lot of buzz pointing to a WR lately. Itís possible Ö but I still wonder about it. The nod goes to

Dallas Cowboys pick: WR Robert Meachem, Tennessee

Personal comment: This one took awhile to work out in this scenario. Lynch was given long thought here Ö but Iíd have to see some Julius action first, and thatís died down. Aaron Ross got a long consideration, and seems like an ideal CB for Wade. Wade had a similarly raw player in Cromartie last year as well. Bowe/Jarrett got considerations, but in the end, I wonder if a big, downfield target may intrigue the most. Personally, Iím wary of Meachem.

23. New York Giants f/ Kansas City Chiefs

Dealing down and not missing out on any CBís would be what they desire. If that happens, theyíll still have a lot of options. Who? Nod goes to

New York Giants pick: CB Eric Wright, UNLV

Personal comment: Iíve had Wright and Houston as my top 2 corners on my personal list for awhile, and there seems to be a sufficient push that Wrightís past might not hurt him as much as some think. That said, Houston or Ross could be options here, and both could be nice fits.

24. New England Patriots f/ Seattle Seahawks

I think they stay put here, if the board falls this way, and another DB comes off the board. Who?

New England Patriots pick: S Reggie Nelson, Florida

Personal comment: Corner is definitely tempting Ö but safety addresses a more immediate area. Now Ö if Samuel gets dealt, that changes the dynamics. For my money, hereís the safety Iíd still put my money with.

25. New York Jets

What do they Jets go with here? The DB run continues, as the Jets go with

New York Jets pick: CB Chris Houston, Arkansas

Personal comment: I donít think they are as gung-ho on CB as itís made out to be, but if a good fit comes along, I think theyíll look. Houston is the type of guy that might excel in their schemes, and might convince them to stay put.

26. Philadelphia Eagles

A lot of buzz on CB recently, with some of the talk being Sheldon Brown to safety (and William James possibly starting). Certainly intriguing. For now

Projected Trade:

Buffalo Bills get the 26th overall
Philadelphia Eagles get the 43rd and 74th overall

Eagles could use the extra assets, and Iím hard pressed to say that thereís any talent whose value is off the charts here relative to a fit. Bills nod goes to

Buffalo Bills pick: RB Marshawn Lynch, California

Personal comment: I donít think they are really considering Lynch anymore at 12, but if he falls, Iíll be surprised if some team (Buffalo/Green Bay) doesnít take a stab at moving up. For all the RBís moving into the 2nd round area, thereís still a fairly sizable gap between Lynch and the next guy. Lynch might not end up falling this much. For my money, I think heíll have the best career, with his all-around abilities and versatility, plus his fluid running. They definitely need a back, and despite two trades, they still have another day 1 pick to address CB, and theyíve potentially addressed two top needs so far. This would be my SOD so far in round 1.

27. New Orleans Saints

With the Jason David move, it does beg to question how strong of an interest CB is. How the David situation plays out will be worth watching. As of now, Iíll stay with my recent pick and that is

New Orleans Saints pick: DT Justin Harrell, Tennessee

Personal comment: They need work against the run, and if they can get David, they might wait on CB depth. LB is a thought as well, and Pos seems like the type of guy that Payton might like, but impact DT talent is a need for them, and Harrellís solidified a late first/early 2nd standing.

28. New England Patriots

They added a DB. I think theyíd love to move down.

Projected Trade:

San Francisco 49ers get the 28th overall
New England Patriots get the 42nd, 104th, and a 4th rounder in 2008

I look for the Niners to try to be aggressive. Just too many picks. They nab

San Francisco 49ers pick: WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU

Personal comment: Niners still need a top target, and Boweís skillset blends well with Lelieís 1-dimensional game (okay, maybe a bit harsh). They know Bowe from the Senior Bowl.

29. Baltimore Ravens

So, I had an early first frenzy of trades, and itís looking like a late first frenzy.

Projected Trade:

Detroit Lions get the 29th overall
Baltimore Ravens get the 34th and 101st overall

Lions might get aggressive, particularly if it doesnít cost much. Nod goes to

Detroit Lions pick: LB Paul Posluszny, Penn State

Personal comment: Had the Ravens stayed put Ö nod mightíve been to Kalil. Dropping down to 34 could put them in position for Kalil, and also netting an early 4th compensates for the loss of the late 3rd. Iím not sure on the Posluszny fit, but they will look LB, and he does seem like a Rod type. CB and Ross was a thought.

30. San Diego Chargers

I think theyíll try hard to move up Ö but I didnít see it. So what now? A number of options here, but DB may top the board. Where do they go? Nod goes to

San Diego Chargers pick: S Michael Griffin, Texas

If they pass on safety here, the value is questionable later, and they need a safety.

Personal comment: Not much to say. Griffin makes sense, although how they utilize him would be interesting.

31. Chicago Bears

If they stay pat, theyíd certainly have options here. Options abound. Nod goes to

Chicago Bears pick: WR Anthony Gonzalez, the Ohio State

Personal comment: What do I think? I think the LB value that makes sense is off here. I think OL doesnít seem likely, due to having the entire starting unit returning. TE lacks value, RB isnít a first round priority. DT lacks value, and DE is unlikely. Thus, DB or WR, and while Ross is tempting, they do have a pick at 37, DB isnít that glaring, and one Devin Hester in the return game. Thus, WR, and while Jarrett was a long thought, Gonzalez is viewed as having a solid floor, high potential, and might be tempting here. Tough to figure out which way my own team is leaning Ö and a case could be made with a number of options.

32. Indianapolis Colts

They need interior DL, but valueís off. Could they look trade? Sure. But they nab

Indianapolis Colts pick: CB Aaron Ross, Texas

Personal comment: If they lose David, theyíll have added a 4th. For all their DB picks in recent years, losing two guys is a concern. LB fit is questionable here, DL value is off, and WR value is good into the 2nd as well. OL doesn't seem likely, and RB can likely wait. The added bonus with Ross, if he falls this far, is his help in the return game.

bored of education
04-21-2007, 06:11 AM
Interesting Mock esp. Buffalo's and San Fran's. I like KC getting Staley alot.

toonster, do you think Anthony Spencer goes to Baltimore @ 34 or jarvis moss, ben grubbs or blaylock?

toonsterwu
04-21-2007, 06:23 AM
Interesting Mock esp. Buffalo's and San Fran's. I like KC getting Staley alot.

toonster, do you think Anthony Spencer goes to Baltimore @ 34 or jarvis moss, ben grubbs or blaylock?

I have Kalil still penciled in there, on account of value. Not what Ravens fans want ... but at least I managed to talk them into a trade down to select him instead. I know that Chester is being considered at center, but that's still a question if he can adjust to it, as there is an adjustment. Grabbing someone like Kalil, who can play center and be plugged in right away, allows Chester to stay at guard and focus solely on gaining weight. But definitely a lot of options, late first, or early 2nd.

alexschnarr
04-21-2007, 06:46 AM
i really like that 49ers draft, i do want them to trade up into round one, or earlier in round 2 to nap the wr that fell out of round 1. If they don't think that will happen i would like to see them trade up into round 1 like you have them doing. Very nice mock

Addict
04-21-2007, 06:55 AM
Awesome mock, I don't see all the trades happening, but it's very, very original, and pretty realistic. Great job!

ThePudge
04-21-2007, 07:12 AM
I rarely can say this in the Mock Draft forum, but you did a damn good job. With the trades, the picks, everything.

The top 10 looks very good and as realistic as it gets if everything plays out. I think in this scenario, Cleveland plays a major role. Do they take Peterson, or do they take Quinn? What I've heard are mixed reports, so I won't balme you for going Quinn there.

I've also heard the Cardinals are very interested in Adrian Peterson, so I'm not so sure they'd pass up their chances to grab him. I'll agree, however, that in this scenario Brown makes the most sense.

The only pick I really question is 25, with the Jets selecting Chris Houston. Their 3-4 system calls for a bigger corner, so you really have to question is the 5'10 185 Houston, who is known primarily as a man corner. Aaron Ross may be the better fit there if the team is to opt for a CB. The Jets have stated CB is probably the top priority, but reportedly expressed interest in Reggie Nelson (Could play CB) and Greg Olsen.

I could see the Rams very unhappy with the way that scenario plays out. Their two favorites in Carriker and Ginn, taken at 11 and 12, right before St. Louis can get their hands on them, and the best LB in Patrick Willis off the board at 10. Would be a frustrating moment for the Rams.

It's tough to see the Bills trading up twice, but I'm not ruling it out. They have been willing in the past, particularly last year, to trade up to get their man.

Overall, I must say I like that draft a lot. Very good work. Every value is about right and you didn't fail to address needs. The trades are good, realistic.

Jensen
04-21-2007, 07:20 AM
I'd rather the Cardinals take Joe Thomas at #5 than trading down to pick Levi Brown.

princefielder28
04-21-2007, 07:38 AM
I really think if it came down to it Green Bay would take Lynch over Olsen b/c their need at RB is an absolute must

Crow
04-21-2007, 07:52 AM
Nice work, toon. Would have been nicer to see Oakland trade up...or at least see who you had us grabbing @ 33. ;)

Still not feeling the Russell pick.

BaLLiN
04-21-2007, 08:17 AM
20. New York Giants

A lot of potential areas to look but

Projected Trade:

Kansas City gets the 20th and 116th overall
New York Giants get the 23rd and 84th overall

Can KC really stand put if Joe Staley is within sight? I canít see it. Staley could start inside, or he could slide Terry/McIntosh inside. Thereís a chance Denver targets Staley Ö so can they afford to wait?

Kansas City Chiefs pick: OT Joe Staley, Central Michigan

Personal comment: Love Staley Ö and if KC can land him, thatís the best route to go, IMO, as it helps shore up the OL, which has gone from a strength to a question, due to age.

21. Denver Broncos

For the longest time, I thought that they may be itching to move up Ö or down. Just not staying in place. If things break this way, though, I think they do stay put and take

Denver Broncos pick: DT Alan Branch, Michigan

Personal comment: Unless the injury questions are really severe, itíll be hard for them to pass. Alan Branch is Jim Bates type of 4-3 DT. Draft status somewhat reminds me of the small fall that Vince Wilfork took a few years ago.
24.
Dallas Cowboys pick: WR Robert Meachem, Tennessee

23.
Dealing down and not missing out on any CBís would be what they desire. If that happens, theyíll still have a lot of options. Who? Nod goes to

New York Giants pick: CB Eric Wright, UNLV

24. New England Patriots f/ Seattle Seahawks

I think they stay put here, if the board falls this way, and another DB comes off the board. Who?

New England Patriots pick: S Reggie Nelson, Florida

25. New York Jets

What do they Jets go with here? The DB run continues, as the Jets go with

New York Jets pick: CB Chris Houston, Arkansas

26. Philadelphia Eagles

A lot of buzz on CB recently, with some of the talk being Sheldon Brown to safety (and William James possibly starting). Certainly intriguing. For now

Projected Trade:

Buffalo Bills get the 26th overall
Philadelphia Eagles get the 43rd and 74th overall

Eagles could use the extra assets, and Iím hard pressed to say that thereís any talent whose value is off the charts here relative to a fit. Bills nod goes to

Buffalo Bills pick: RB Marshawn Lynch, California

27. New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints pick: DT Justin Harrell, Tennessee

28. New England Patriots

They added a DB. I think theyíd love to move down.

Projected Trade:

San Francisco 49ers get the 28th overall
New England Patriots get the 42nd, 104th, and a 4th rounder in 2008

I look for the Niners to try to be aggressive. Just too many picks. They nab

San Francisco 49ers pick: WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU
29. Baltimore Ravens

So, I had an early first frenzy of trades, and itís looking like a late first frenzy.

Projected Trade:

Detroit Lions get the 29th overall
Baltimore Ravens get the 34th and 101st overall

Lions might get aggressive, particularly if it doesnít cost much. Nod goes to

Detroit Lions pick: LB Paul Posluszny, Penn State

30. San Diego Chargers
San Diego Chargers pick: S Michael Griffin, Texas

If they pass on safety here, the value is questionable later, and they need a safety.

Personal comment: Not much to say. Griffin makes sense, although how they utilize him would be interesting.


I seriously doubt that the giants would trade to KC, there are a lot of other teams that would want Alan Branch in that situation and we could easily get a late second or early third if we traded down to a desperate team. Next Eric Wright doesn't solve our problems, there is a lot more talent out there and Chris Houston seems to be much better than him.

derza222
04-21-2007, 09:46 AM
Very interesting mock as always toonster. Just a few questions:

I know Wright is very talented and has been bouncing between my second and third favorite corner this year, but with the perhaps heightened sensitivity to character issues, will a team realistically choose him in the first or do you think he has alleviated some of the teams fears through interviews?

Do you see Harrell rising before the draft to the mid-first range or being a steal late first, and is he a good fit for both the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses?

Dwayne Bowe has been thought of by some as the second best WR in the draft, and it seems as though his stock has slipped some after a great Senior Bowl. Is that more because his stock was too high to begin with, was it because of his 40, or has it been dropping simply because other players are rising? And do you think he has the potential to be a #1 WR down the road or will he be nothing more than a #2?

Finally, you said Chris Houston would be a good fit for the Jets and if available could convince them to "stay put". Do you see a trade down to the late first, or perhaps out of the first completely?


Awesome mock, great analysis, fantastic read and thanks as always for putting the work in and letting us read it.

G-Men88
04-21-2007, 09:48 AM
I like the trade down for the Giants but Wright seems like a reach there. Reggie Nelson instead

go_ravens94
04-21-2007, 09:58 AM
Like the Ravens trade down. Kalil would be a good pick there.

Pit Bull #53
04-21-2007, 10:39 AM
Love the Jamaal Anderson pick, as you probably already know, since I think you gave him to us in an earlier mock. I do think (and this depends on who's on the board) that the top two positions we'll be looking at in the 1st are DE and WR, and I'm a big fan of Anderson's potential myself. I think it could benefit him to drop 8-10 lbs though and see if he can improve his explosiveness.

I see even with all these trades you don't have Michael Turner being moved. Do you think he ends up staying in San Deigo? I'm kinda hoping we make a push for him myself with a swap of 1sts and maybe a 3rd.

Go_Eagles77
04-21-2007, 10:59 AM
I think the eagles would take Griffin there instead of trade out of the 1st.

Beans
04-21-2007, 11:01 AM
Don't like the Bucs trade. Gives up way too much.

toonsterwu
04-21-2007, 11:12 AM
Love the Jamaal Anderson pick, as you probably already know, since I think you gave him to us in an earlier mock. I do think (and this depends on who's on the board) that the top two positions we'll be looking at in the 1st are DE and WR, and I'm a big fan of Anderson's potential myself. I think it could benefit him to drop 8-10 lbs though and see if he can improve his explosiveness.

I see even with all these trades you don't have Michael Turner being moved. Do you think he ends up staying in San Deigo? I'm kinda hoping we make a push for him myself with a swap of 1sts and maybe a 3rd.


I think the dynamics of the situation make it much less unlikely now that Turner gets moved ... unless there was a deal close to being done that somehow didn't get reported. It's just going to be hard to complete a deal ... without knowing whether or not you can sign a guy long term. Still possible ...

Furthermore, it might be more of a 2nd and a future 2008 type trade as well, which was the direction I was leaning if it happened.

I was actually torn on the Titans pick. They really, in all honesty, need to address CB and WR early on. I like Finnegan ... but if they go DE and then WR, that leaves a 3rd round corner at best, Finnegan, Hill, Harper ... not exactly a foursome that jumps out at ya.

toonsterwu
04-21-2007, 11:13 AM
Don't like the Bucs trade. Gives up way too much.

Value actually works out fine ... it'll come down to who blinks, and between the two, I think TB is more likely to blink moreso than Detroit. We'll have to see, though.

toonsterwu
04-21-2007, 11:14 AM
I think the eagles would take Griffin there instead of trade out of the 1st.

It's possible ... but I think there's enough options out there in round 2 that might better fit the Eagles. Still not sold on this Griffin match that a lot of Eagles fans love. Not saying it's bad ... but not sold on it.

toonsterwu
04-21-2007, 11:19 AM
Very interesting mock as always toonster. Just a few questions:

I know Wright is very talented and has been bouncing between my second and third favorite corner this year, but with the perhaps heightened sensitivity to character issues, will a team realistically choose him in the first or do you think he has alleviated some of the teams fears through interviews?

Do you see Harrell rising before the draft to the mid-first range or being a steal late first, and is he a good fit for both the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses?

Dwayne Bowe has been thought of by some as the second best WR in the draft, and it seems as though his stock has slipped some after a great Senior Bowl. Is that more because his stock was too high to begin with, was it because of his 40, or has it been dropping simply because other players are rising? And do you think he has the potential to be a #1 WR down the road or will he be nothing more than a #2?

Finally, you said Chris Houston would be a good fit for the Jets and if available could convince them to "stay put". Do you see a trade down to the late first, or perhaps out of the first completely?


Awesome mock, great analysis, fantastic read and thanks as always for putting the work in and letting us read it.

There seems to be a lot of positive reports on Wright lately. Is it enough to get him into round 1? There hasn't been any new red flags ... so we'll have to see. The charges he faced at USC are quite serious, and the drugs are quite incriminating, but there seems to be a growing belief that he's learned enough to at least go in the early 2nd. We'll see.

Personally, I wonder if Harrell is a better fit for the 3-4. I think he could go early 20's at best.

I'll answer the rest later. Gotta head out real quick.

DWhitner20
04-21-2007, 11:30 AM
I like this mock alot, but I really really question the Cards trading down with Joe Thomas on the board.

Hurricane Ditka
04-21-2007, 11:35 AM
Personally I'm not too hot on the Gonzo pick. He doesn't seem to have anything that would set him apart from the wide recievers that are currently on the team. I think Ben Grubbs is a very high possibility, despite all 5 starting offensive lineman returning.

JCutlery
04-21-2007, 11:37 AM
I remember several people calling me a homer for having Branch fall to the Donkeys, but obviously it is a good possibility. Nice draft.

Vikes99ej
04-21-2007, 11:44 AM
I love your analysis, Toonster. I'm a fan of the pick, too. I'm scared that either Green Bay or Buffalo is going to jump ahead of us in the 6 spot. Washington seems eager to rid itself of that pick.

Beans
04-21-2007, 11:46 AM
Value actually works out fine ... it'll come down to who blinks, and between the two, I think TB is more likely to blink moreso than Detroit. We'll have to see, though.

As far as I'm concerned, the value chart is worthless. It comes down to the fact that I think the Bucs have too many needs to give up two extra picks for a player who could very well be there at #4.

skinzzfan25
04-21-2007, 11:55 AM
Love the trade and pick. Can only hope that it pans out like this.

Geo
04-21-2007, 12:12 PM
A number of the early trades are remarkably similar to those of my mock from over a week ago, so I'm not taken completely by surprise.

Personally I'm not too hot on the Gonzo pick. He doesn't seem to have anything that would set him apart from the wide recievers that are currently on the team. I think Ben Grubbs is a very high possibility, despite all 5 starting offensive lineman returning.
I'm not crazy about the guy either. I'd rather take an offensive lineman or defensive lineman and then take a WR in the 3rd or 4th than take Gonzalez.

RaiderNation
04-21-2007, 12:46 PM
should have went with the flow

Donkey Punch
04-21-2007, 01:23 PM
This is about as good of a mock draft that I've seen. I love the analysis and the trade scenerios.

JPF
04-21-2007, 02:01 PM
I could really see that being the Panthers pick. The whole thing is actually realistic.

Good job as always toonster!

49erfaithful
04-21-2007, 04:04 PM
great SF pick

Packman1957
04-21-2007, 05:20 PM
Overall the mock is pretty good, but the Packers pick I really don't agree with, if they don't take Lynch there I would be surprised, and if they choose not too I am actually not to sure if Olsen would be the pick there.

Besides that I think the Cardinals take Thomas without a doubt, and I must say I think there are too many trades, in the real draft rarely do I see as many trades as you are projecting.

Still the Mock and Explanation aren't Bad!!

Auron
04-21-2007, 05:23 PM
I do like the nod for Harell at 27. I know some Saints fans are not particularly happy with that direction, more so with the other options on the board rather than the player himself.

Hard to argue with your logic though. I'd say DT is one of the more shakier positions on the team. Hollis wears down during games, and the depth is real shaky behind him. (Lake, Leisle, Whitehead) I believe Harrell could have a great shot at starting over Brian Young.

It would be a dream situation if the Saints had a choice between Ross - Bowe - Harrell - Posluszny at 27.

The Unseen
04-21-2007, 05:26 PM
I could actually see the Merriweather-over-Nelson pick occur.

Not sure if I'd agree with it, though.

The Dynasty
04-21-2007, 05:40 PM
I like the vikings draft, and good mock.

Xiomera
04-21-2007, 10:08 PM
Adams and Pos . . . I like it.

But who do they take then at 35? Trent Edwards? Or a DB?

Bobo
04-21-2007, 10:52 PM
I think the dynamics of the situation make it much less unlikely now that Turner gets moved ... unless there was a deal close to being done that somehow didn't get reported. It's just going to be hard to complete a deal ... without knowing whether or not you can sign a guy long term. Still possible ...

Furthermore, it might be more of a 2nd and a future 2008 type trade as well, which was the direction I was leaning if it happened.

I was actually torn on the Titans pick. They really, in all honesty, need to address CB and WR early on. I like Finnegan ... but if they go DE and then WR, that leaves a 3rd round corner at best, Finnegan, Hill, Harper ... not exactly a foursome that jumps out at ya.

Nice pick, and I agree on the needs. Like Pit Bull said, I think DE and WR are needs above CB. Now maybe if CB is the best value at 19, then go for it....but not if Anderson is there ;)

What I'd like the most is something like 1) Anderson 2) Gonzales/Smith/Hill 3) Wade/Wilson/Davis

defensiveback23
04-22-2007, 12:04 AM
Griffin has grown on me since the end of the season and I think he is an excellent pick if he lasts to 30. I'm not quite sure what you mean about how he is utilized. I know that it doesn't really matter where each safety lines up because they have the same responsibilities. I heard McCree will stay at FS regardless of who is drafted because they like to blitz him from the weakside.

I think there is a pretty good likelihood something big will go down for the Chargers on draft day. Turner being involved doesnít seem very likely because a team would want to work out a contract before hand, not to mention a matter of compensation which may be too high. I think the Chargers are exploring ways to move up into the top 10 for Landry but having such low picks means that Turner would have to be involved one way or another. That may end up hindering anything big from happening at all.

thule
04-22-2007, 12:15 AM
I agree with you that Meachem looks like the most likely to happen pick at 22. But three experts have came out now and said Dallas is looking to move down. Names that have been associated with Dallas lately are..Meachem/Spencer/Meriweather

If I put out my mock I'd bet my money on spencer on a move down.

Caddy
04-22-2007, 03:44 AM
If the Buccaneers did that trade I would be devastated. With so many needs, trading away 3 Day 1 picks for 1 would be a poor decision.

WMD
04-22-2007, 05:09 AM
I don't see how ATL is out of range. Detroit (reportedly) loves Patrick Willis.. being able to trade down to #8 is a good spot to take him, while getting extra picks.

I think Gaines Adams is similar enough to Kalimba Edwards to make the Lions think twice about drafting him.. I just don't see us as being dead set on taking Gaines Adams..

D-Rod
04-22-2007, 05:34 AM
I think all of the trades makes sense, and it generally comes across as cohesive.

With regard to the falcons, I've been thinking for a while that the Cardinals reported preference for Brown might make them a potential trade partner. However, I would hate to see them take Landry at #5 ahead of Thomas or Brown (whichever LT they rate more highly).

I think that Landry is just as good an S prospect as Thomas is an LT project, and both are huge needs for the Falcons, but LT is a more important position, and SOOOO much harder to find in the later rounds, not just in this draft but in any draft.

Look at it this way: would you rather have Landry and Ugoh, or Thomas and Weddle (or Griffin/Meriweather if very lucky). I'd take the latter option every single time, and I'd hope that the Falcons would too.

eaglesalltheway
04-22-2007, 11:24 AM
I don't think the Eagles will trade out of the first with Griffin still available, but as long as they would get some quality players I wouldn't be against it.