toonsterwu
04-21-2007, 05:59 AM
It's been awhile. With trades. A lot ... and fair to critique that as well. Short comment 1st round scenario. It is what it is, a scenario. I’ve got a couple other scenarios, some CJ-Raiders scenarios as well. Tough draft to figure out to begin with, since the 2nd tier of overall talent is so bunched together, but made moreso by the fact that, despite being this late in the cycle, there’s a lot of uncertainty at the top of the draft. As always, could always change by tomorrow. Not sure if I’ll extend this, as I might not have the time to do it soon enough, and significant changes could have happened by then.
1. Oakland Raiders
Man … I so want to go with the flow and go with the Calvin Johnson pick here … but
Oakland Raiders pick: QB Jamarcus Russell, LSU
Personal comment: I’ve said all along that I don’t think the Raiders can go wrong with either Jamarcus or Calvin, but I do believe Russell is the correct move.
2. Detroit Lions
Who’s going to blink first? The Lions, in all honesty, need Tampa Bay to deal up, because it leaves them in range for Adams. The Buccaneers love Calvin … but may not be willing to go all out in a deal. Everyone seems to be mocking a Tampa Bay trade … where there’s smoke, there’s usually something … Washington, Atlanta are also looking but they either lack assets (Skins) or aren’t as well positioned (Atlanta). In the end,
Projected Trade:
Tampa Bay gets the 2nd overall
Detroit gets the 4th, 35th, and 68th overall
Value is a perfect. In the end, I think Tampa Bay blinks moreso than Detroit does. They are the team gunning for the asset, and Detroit may get a few other offers. It’s not as if Tampa Bay is paying through the hilt value wise (as the numbers work out to be a perfect match), but I think they are hoping to get a deal on the cheap, which I don't think they'll find. Both teams are hoping for Oakland to take Russell, as Detroit gets its trade options, and Tampa Bay doesn’t have to give up all their day 1 picks, and potentially more.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick: WR Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech
Personal comment: If Detroit can get a deal, it’s good for them. Count me in the group that thinks Tampa’s infatuation with Calvin Johnson might not be in the best interest of the team. Don’t get me wrong, it doesn’t hurt them, as he’s a fabulous talent who will help … but using their picks might give them the ability to create a younger core much quicker. But Chucky and Bruce need to win fast.
3. Cleveland Browns
I honestly think that Savage’s preference is Russell … and then Peterson. Does he have enough sway left, as the current leadership is hanging perilously? We’ll see. Hey, maybe I’m wrong on the order of preference. The guess here is …
Cleveland Browns pick: QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Personal comment: I have to say … I’m not sure what to think here. I’m not sure this is a great move … but I’m not sure there’s any move here that’s great for the franchise. It might be a good long term move … but when you factor in that long term would likely mean another regime … then you have a young QB going through a couple regimes, which isn’t the best.
4. Detroit Lions f/ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They move down and get their guy. They are one of the few high teams where I think it makes sense to go
Detroit Lions pick: DE Gaines Adams, Clemson
Personal comment: It makes sense to focus on the trenches. If Rogers is back in form, the three deep end chart and more experience could make the defense a stronger unit capable of balancing out what should be a solid offense.
5. Arizona Cardinals
I’ve been talking about how Arizona liked Levi Brown a lot for awhile. Is it a smokescreen? Would they go value (which would probably be Thomas)? The guess here is
Projected Trade:
Atlanta gets the 5th overall
Arizona gets the 8th, 75th, 109th overall
Value’s fine. I know there’s a site that says Atlanta is looking down … but I’m not sold on that. Do they have options sitting pat? Sure. Might they prefer to get aggressive and land someone they want? I think Washington and Miami might both be calling, but Washington lacks assets, and Miami isn’t as well positioned.
Atlanta Falcons pick: S Laron Landry, LSU
Personal comment: I’ll stick with my value mantra … I think Laron Landry would be a “reach” if he goes in the top 5. He’s good, a solid 10 year starter type, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if, say, 2 of the other safeties had equally solid careers. For my money, I’d still bank on Reggie Nelson to be a stud in the pros. That said, not that strong of a draft, fits a need, and while the Falcons would have options by staying put, if they can make a deal without forking over their 2nd rounders, it might be hard to pass up.
6. Washington Redskins
They love Landry … but they lack the assets to make the move. They also like Okoye … do they love Okoye? That’ll be interesting to see. They could very well do a veteran trade, but if not, I could see Miami, Buffalo, and St. Louis calling, for 3 different reasons (Thomas/Peterson/Okoye). What’s the call? In the end, I think they would deal in this scenario. Not sure Buffalo is willing to pay the ransom to get up here … and not sure St. Louis can trump Miami. In the end
Projected Trade:
Miami gets the 6th overall
Washington gets the 9th and 71st overall
I’m just not sold Miami stays at 9, which is somewhat of a no man’s land. Washington certainly is amenable to dealing … up or down. The situation’s clearly improved for them over the past month, in regards to the positioning at 6.
Miami Dolphins pick: OT Joe Thomas, Wisconsin
Personal comment: I’m not gung ho on Thomas, but I he is a solid early first draft value due to position and potentially fills a key area for the Fins. It makes sense for Washington to deal down in such a deep draft, especially since they lack assets.
7. Minnesota Vikings
What do they do here? I’m very tempted to go a deal, but in the end, I jump on the bandwagon and go with
Minnesota Vikings pick: RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma
Personal comment: Change of heart here. It works for me. Safety, end, QB and WR value are questionable here, and it’s a 2-back league more than ever. Peterson doesn’t handle the load by himself early on, potentially lengthening his career. A strong run game is the best way to protect a young QB.
8. Arizona Cardinals f/ Houston Texans via Atlanta Falcons
They slide down, pick up a few extra assets, and potentially land the guy they wanted. It’s possible that they jump on Adrian or Joe Thomas at 5 … but as of doing this scenario, I am not sold.
Arizona Cardinals pick: OT Levi Brown, Penn State
Personal comment: I’m on the group that think Levi Brown in the top 10 is on account of the planet theory. That said … I think it works for me. I think he can fit their scheme, particularly since many believe he’s better off as a RT anyways, which would be Leinart’s blindside.
9. Washington Redskins f/ Miami Dolphins
What happens here? Could they deal gain? I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. That said, I think they’d be content to landing a guy they like in
Washington Redskins pick: DT Amobi Okoye, Louisville
Personal comment: As an individual partial to caring about the Redskins, my greatest fear here is Ted Ginn Jr. I’m going against it … but it’s something to watch and keep in mind, I think, amongst the numerous Redskins possibilities. Maybe another deal comes along, but they need DL help, and Okoye fits the bill. Okoye and Golston would buy each other time in some respects.
10. Houston Texans
A lot of mixed signals on the Texans in the last couple of days. I was working with the offense theory … and a flurry of talk on CB has emerged. That said, I think their preference is to deal down. Will they? If not, what then? Offense or CB? The value’s at corner … but the more pressing need might be to actually provide that offense. Nod goes to
Projected Trade:
Buffalo gets the 10th overall
Houston gets the 12th and 111th overall, plus a 4th rounder in 2008
Of the flurry of trades so far, this one is the one I’m most ambivalent about. There’s buzz that Buffalo might be happy with Posluszny or Beason … but in the end, do they chance the Niners taking
Buffalo Bills pick: LB Patrick Willis, Mississippi
Personal comment: In all honesty, I think the Bills are better off with Beason at WLB and Crowell at MIKE than they are with whatever combination of Willis/Crowell. That said, Willis might be too tantalizing, and has the better value.
11. San Francisco 49ers
They may get tempted to join the flurry of trades, but in the end, they probably sit pat. I think the one DL that makes the most sense might get the nod, and that is
San Francisco 49ers pick: DL Adam Carriker, Nebraska
Personal comment: Personally, I’d look elsewhere. I’m just not sold they need to look DL in round 1, especially since this is a critical year (year 3 of a regime is always big) and they are looking to move up. That said, it makes sense with the age of Young. Carriker’s ideal.
12. Houston Texans f/ Buffalo Bills
They could look to deal again, but I just don’t see the options, and as noted, I wasn’t completely in love with the move at 10. Thus, a pick, and the nod goes to
Houston Texans pick: WR Ted Ginn Jr., the Ohio State
Personal comment: If Ted Ginn Jr. goes in the top 20, I think a team will have to show real patience. Does Kubiak and Co. have that patience? OL is quite tempting … but they may just be wary enough of making a move for Staley here.
13. St. Louis Rams
I just don’t see Alan Branch here. If Justin Harrell had another month … he might be a thought, as he’s definitely on the uptick. Do they look defensive end and Jamaal? In the end, the nod is to
St. Louis Rams pick: CB Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh
Personal comment: Without a glaring need, taking a corner makes some sense. I know some Rams posters believe they are fine, but Bartell’s more of a nickel guy long run, and Brown isn’t going to block a top talent. Addressing DE/DT in rounds 2 and 3 could allow them to find better fits, and better values.
14. Carolina Panthers
What exactly are the Panthers going to do? A lot of buzz on receiver or Olsen … but they’ve actually hidden things real well. In this scenario, I think they go
Carolina Panthers pick: LB Jon “Jessie Armstead” Beason, the U
Personal comment: I’ve long been a fan of Beason, and I think he’ll do great at a number of positions. Olsen is certainly something to watch, and I wouldn’t rule out end either. Even WR has to be looked at. A lot of options … and a critical decision for a leadership that has to step up. If Ted Ginn Jr. fell a little more, I think they pull the trigger on that move … but I don’t see them moving up for Ginn Jr.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
This one’s hard to figure as well. A lot of buzz on a lot of guys, with Timmons as the predominant one being mentioned. How legit is that? I’ll bite
Pittsburgh Steelers pick: LB Lawrence Timmons, Florida State
Personal comment: I want to write in a corner, but if Tomlin finds a guy who he thinks can be a long term stud linebacker for him … I think it’ll be hard to pass. Especially a guy who might be able to be utilized soon.
16. Green Bay Packers
With 3 teams that run variants of the tampa-2 in house, they need a field stretching TE, and Bubba isn’t that. The nod goes to
Green Bay Packers pick: TE Greg Olsen, the U
Personal comment: I am torn between Lynch and Olsen. There seems to be rumors that the Packers might be the team that initiated a lot of the Lynch rumors out there, worried that he might not fall to them. By the next scenario, this may be Lynch. But Olsen has the rare physical potential that might be utilized greatly in this division, while providing a safety blanket for Favre and the future.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Some buzz on CB creeping in … but I safety still makes the most sense. Who? The questions about the U’s streak would definitely seem laughable if this happened.
Jacksonville Jaguars pick: S Brandon Meriweather, the U
Personal comment: I still prefer Nelson … but I like Meriweather as well. Both are very much in play.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Is DL a darkhorse possibility? I think so. But if the DB value is there, I think they go that route. I was tempted to go the trade route (Denver in particular)… but in the end,
Cincinnati Bengals pick: CB Leon Hall, Michigan
Personal comment: I still think Chris Houston is the best corner in this draft, and I wonder if he’s a better fit. But Hall might be tough to pass up, a solid guy able to step in and help immediately.
19. Tennessee Titans
They would be giddy with joy if all these options were available. DE, DT, WR, and CB could all be addressed. So where do they go? The guess here is probably DL, despite glaring holes at WR and CB. Who? The nod goes to
Tennessee Titans pick: DE Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas
Personal comment: A lot of mixed comments on Anderson … and he could go high or low, but I think this is about right. I’ve long thought Anderson was loaded with potential … but significantly overhyped. Branch is a tempting thought, though.
20. New York Giants
A lot of potential areas to look but
Projected Trade:
Kansas City gets the 20th and 116th overall
New York Giants get the 23rd and 84th overall
Can KC really stand put if Joe Staley is within sight? I can’t see it. Staley could start inside, or he could slide Terry/McIntosh inside. There’s a chance Denver targets Staley … so can they afford to wait?
Kansas City Chiefs pick: OT Joe Staley, Central Michigan
Personal comment: Love Staley … and if KC can land him, that’s the best route to go, IMO, as it helps shore up the OL, which has gone from a strength to a question, due to age.
21. Denver Broncos
For the longest time, I thought that they may be itching to move up … or down. Just not staying in place. If things break this way, though, I think they do stay put and take
Denver Broncos pick: DT Alan Branch, Michigan
Personal comment: Unless the injury questions are really severe, it’ll be hard for them to pass. Alan Branch is Jim Bates type of 4-3 DT. Draft status somewhat reminds me of the small fall that Vince Wilfork took a few years ago.
22. Dallas Cowboys
A lot of buzz pointing to a WR lately. It’s possible … but I still wonder about it. The nod goes to
Dallas Cowboys pick: WR Robert Meachem, Tennessee
Personal comment: This one took awhile to work out in this scenario. Lynch was given long thought here … but I’d have to see some Julius action first, and that’s died down. Aaron Ross got a long consideration, and seems like an ideal CB for Wade. Wade had a similarly raw player in Cromartie last year as well. Bowe/Jarrett got considerations, but in the end, I wonder if a big, downfield target may intrigue the most. Personally, I’m wary of Meachem.
23. New York Giants f/ Kansas City Chiefs
Dealing down and not missing out on any CB’s would be what they desire. If that happens, they’ll still have a lot of options. Who? Nod goes to
New York Giants pick: CB Eric Wright, UNLV
Personal comment: I’ve had Wright and Houston as my top 2 corners on my personal list for awhile, and there seems to be a sufficient push that Wright’s past might not hurt him as much as some think. That said, Houston or Ross could be options here, and both could be nice fits.
24. New England Patriots f/ Seattle Seahawks
I think they stay put here, if the board falls this way, and another DB comes off the board. Who?
New England Patriots pick: S Reggie Nelson, Florida
Personal comment: Corner is definitely tempting … but safety addresses a more immediate area. Now … if Samuel gets dealt, that changes the dynamics. For my money, here’s the safety I’d still put my money with.
25. New York Jets
What do they Jets go with here? The DB run continues, as the Jets go with
New York Jets pick: CB Chris Houston, Arkansas
Personal comment: I don’t think they are as gung-ho on CB as it’s made out to be, but if a good fit comes along, I think they’ll look. Houston is the type of guy that might excel in their schemes, and might convince them to stay put.
26. Philadelphia Eagles
A lot of buzz on CB recently, with some of the talk being Sheldon Brown to safety (and William James possibly starting). Certainly intriguing. For now
Projected Trade:
Buffalo Bills get the 26th overall
Philadelphia Eagles get the 43rd and 74th overall
Eagles could use the extra assets, and I’m hard pressed to say that there’s any talent whose value is off the charts here relative to a fit. Bills nod goes to
Buffalo Bills pick: RB Marshawn Lynch, California
Personal comment: I don’t think they are really considering Lynch anymore at 12, but if he falls, I’ll be surprised if some team (Buffalo/Green Bay) doesn’t take a stab at moving up. For all the RB’s moving into the 2nd round area, there’s still a fairly sizable gap between Lynch and the next guy. Lynch might not end up falling this much. For my money, I think he’ll have the best career, with his all-around abilities and versatility, plus his fluid running. They definitely need a back, and despite two trades, they still have another day 1 pick to address CB, and they’ve potentially addressed two top needs so far. This would be my SOD so far in round 1.
27. New Orleans Saints
With the Jason David move, it does beg to question how strong of an interest CB is. How the David situation plays out will be worth watching. As of now, I’ll stay with my recent pick and that is
New Orleans Saints pick: DT Justin Harrell, Tennessee
Personal comment: They need work against the run, and if they can get David, they might wait on CB depth. LB is a thought as well, and Pos seems like the type of guy that Payton might like, but impact DT talent is a need for them, and Harrell’s solidified a late first/early 2nd standing.
28. New England Patriots
They added a DB. I think they’d love to move down.
Projected Trade:
San Francisco 49ers get the 28th overall
New England Patriots get the 42nd, 104th, and a 4th rounder in 2008
I look for the Niners to try to be aggressive. Just too many picks. They nab
San Francisco 49ers pick: WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU
Personal comment: Niners still need a top target, and Bowe’s skillset blends well with Lelie’s 1-dimensional game (okay, maybe a bit harsh). They know Bowe from the Senior Bowl.
29. Baltimore Ravens
So, I had an early first frenzy of trades, and it’s looking like a late first frenzy.
Projected Trade:
Detroit Lions get the 29th overall
Baltimore Ravens get the 34th and 101st overall
Lions might get aggressive, particularly if it doesn’t cost much. Nod goes to
Detroit Lions pick: LB Paul Posluszny, Penn State
Personal comment: Had the Ravens stayed put … nod might’ve been to Kalil. Dropping down to 34 could put them in position for Kalil, and also netting an early 4th compensates for the loss of the late 3rd. I’m not sure on the Posluszny fit, but they will look LB, and he does seem like a Rod type. CB and Ross was a thought.
30. San Diego Chargers
I think they’ll try hard to move up … but I didn’t see it. So what now? A number of options here, but DB may top the board. Where do they go? Nod goes to
San Diego Chargers pick: S Michael Griffin, Texas
If they pass on safety here, the value is questionable later, and they need a safety.
Personal comment: Not much to say. Griffin makes sense, although how they utilize him would be interesting.
31. Chicago Bears
If they stay pat, they’d certainly have options here. Options abound. Nod goes to
Chicago Bears pick: WR Anthony Gonzalez, the Ohio State
Personal comment: What do I think? I think the LB value that makes sense is off here. I think OL doesn’t seem likely, due to having the entire starting unit returning. TE lacks value, RB isn’t a first round priority. DT lacks value, and DE is unlikely. Thus, DB or WR, and while Ross is tempting, they do have a pick at 37, DB isn’t that glaring, and one Devin Hester in the return game. Thus, WR, and while Jarrett was a long thought, Gonzalez is viewed as having a solid floor, high potential, and might be tempting here. Tough to figure out which way my own team is leaning … and a case could be made with a number of options.
32. Indianapolis Colts
They need interior DL, but value’s off. Could they look trade? Sure. But they nab
Indianapolis Colts pick: CB Aaron Ross, Texas
Personal comment: If they lose David, they’ll have added a 4th. For all their DB picks in recent years, losing two guys is a concern. LB fit is questionable here, DL value is off, and WR value is good into the 2nd as well. OL doesn't seem likely, and RB can likely wait. The added bonus with Ross, if he falls this far, is his help in the return game.
1. Oakland Raiders
Man … I so want to go with the flow and go with the Calvin Johnson pick here … but
Oakland Raiders pick: QB Jamarcus Russell, LSU
Personal comment: I’ve said all along that I don’t think the Raiders can go wrong with either Jamarcus or Calvin, but I do believe Russell is the correct move.
2. Detroit Lions
Who’s going to blink first? The Lions, in all honesty, need Tampa Bay to deal up, because it leaves them in range for Adams. The Buccaneers love Calvin … but may not be willing to go all out in a deal. Everyone seems to be mocking a Tampa Bay trade … where there’s smoke, there’s usually something … Washington, Atlanta are also looking but they either lack assets (Skins) or aren’t as well positioned (Atlanta). In the end,
Projected Trade:
Tampa Bay gets the 2nd overall
Detroit gets the 4th, 35th, and 68th overall
Value is a perfect. In the end, I think Tampa Bay blinks moreso than Detroit does. They are the team gunning for the asset, and Detroit may get a few other offers. It’s not as if Tampa Bay is paying through the hilt value wise (as the numbers work out to be a perfect match), but I think they are hoping to get a deal on the cheap, which I don't think they'll find. Both teams are hoping for Oakland to take Russell, as Detroit gets its trade options, and Tampa Bay doesn’t have to give up all their day 1 picks, and potentially more.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick: WR Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech
Personal comment: If Detroit can get a deal, it’s good for them. Count me in the group that thinks Tampa’s infatuation with Calvin Johnson might not be in the best interest of the team. Don’t get me wrong, it doesn’t hurt them, as he’s a fabulous talent who will help … but using their picks might give them the ability to create a younger core much quicker. But Chucky and Bruce need to win fast.
3. Cleveland Browns
I honestly think that Savage’s preference is Russell … and then Peterson. Does he have enough sway left, as the current leadership is hanging perilously? We’ll see. Hey, maybe I’m wrong on the order of preference. The guess here is …
Cleveland Browns pick: QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
Personal comment: I have to say … I’m not sure what to think here. I’m not sure this is a great move … but I’m not sure there’s any move here that’s great for the franchise. It might be a good long term move … but when you factor in that long term would likely mean another regime … then you have a young QB going through a couple regimes, which isn’t the best.
4. Detroit Lions f/ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They move down and get their guy. They are one of the few high teams where I think it makes sense to go
Detroit Lions pick: DE Gaines Adams, Clemson
Personal comment: It makes sense to focus on the trenches. If Rogers is back in form, the three deep end chart and more experience could make the defense a stronger unit capable of balancing out what should be a solid offense.
5. Arizona Cardinals
I’ve been talking about how Arizona liked Levi Brown a lot for awhile. Is it a smokescreen? Would they go value (which would probably be Thomas)? The guess here is
Projected Trade:
Atlanta gets the 5th overall
Arizona gets the 8th, 75th, 109th overall
Value’s fine. I know there’s a site that says Atlanta is looking down … but I’m not sold on that. Do they have options sitting pat? Sure. Might they prefer to get aggressive and land someone they want? I think Washington and Miami might both be calling, but Washington lacks assets, and Miami isn’t as well positioned.
Atlanta Falcons pick: S Laron Landry, LSU
Personal comment: I’ll stick with my value mantra … I think Laron Landry would be a “reach” if he goes in the top 5. He’s good, a solid 10 year starter type, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if, say, 2 of the other safeties had equally solid careers. For my money, I’d still bank on Reggie Nelson to be a stud in the pros. That said, not that strong of a draft, fits a need, and while the Falcons would have options by staying put, if they can make a deal without forking over their 2nd rounders, it might be hard to pass up.
6. Washington Redskins
They love Landry … but they lack the assets to make the move. They also like Okoye … do they love Okoye? That’ll be interesting to see. They could very well do a veteran trade, but if not, I could see Miami, Buffalo, and St. Louis calling, for 3 different reasons (Thomas/Peterson/Okoye). What’s the call? In the end, I think they would deal in this scenario. Not sure Buffalo is willing to pay the ransom to get up here … and not sure St. Louis can trump Miami. In the end
Projected Trade:
Miami gets the 6th overall
Washington gets the 9th and 71st overall
I’m just not sold Miami stays at 9, which is somewhat of a no man’s land. Washington certainly is amenable to dealing … up or down. The situation’s clearly improved for them over the past month, in regards to the positioning at 6.
Miami Dolphins pick: OT Joe Thomas, Wisconsin
Personal comment: I’m not gung ho on Thomas, but I he is a solid early first draft value due to position and potentially fills a key area for the Fins. It makes sense for Washington to deal down in such a deep draft, especially since they lack assets.
7. Minnesota Vikings
What do they do here? I’m very tempted to go a deal, but in the end, I jump on the bandwagon and go with
Minnesota Vikings pick: RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma
Personal comment: Change of heart here. It works for me. Safety, end, QB and WR value are questionable here, and it’s a 2-back league more than ever. Peterson doesn’t handle the load by himself early on, potentially lengthening his career. A strong run game is the best way to protect a young QB.
8. Arizona Cardinals f/ Houston Texans via Atlanta Falcons
They slide down, pick up a few extra assets, and potentially land the guy they wanted. It’s possible that they jump on Adrian or Joe Thomas at 5 … but as of doing this scenario, I am not sold.
Arizona Cardinals pick: OT Levi Brown, Penn State
Personal comment: I’m on the group that think Levi Brown in the top 10 is on account of the planet theory. That said … I think it works for me. I think he can fit their scheme, particularly since many believe he’s better off as a RT anyways, which would be Leinart’s blindside.
9. Washington Redskins f/ Miami Dolphins
What happens here? Could they deal gain? I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. That said, I think they’d be content to landing a guy they like in
Washington Redskins pick: DT Amobi Okoye, Louisville
Personal comment: As an individual partial to caring about the Redskins, my greatest fear here is Ted Ginn Jr. I’m going against it … but it’s something to watch and keep in mind, I think, amongst the numerous Redskins possibilities. Maybe another deal comes along, but they need DL help, and Okoye fits the bill. Okoye and Golston would buy each other time in some respects.
10. Houston Texans
A lot of mixed signals on the Texans in the last couple of days. I was working with the offense theory … and a flurry of talk on CB has emerged. That said, I think their preference is to deal down. Will they? If not, what then? Offense or CB? The value’s at corner … but the more pressing need might be to actually provide that offense. Nod goes to
Projected Trade:
Buffalo gets the 10th overall
Houston gets the 12th and 111th overall, plus a 4th rounder in 2008
Of the flurry of trades so far, this one is the one I’m most ambivalent about. There’s buzz that Buffalo might be happy with Posluszny or Beason … but in the end, do they chance the Niners taking
Buffalo Bills pick: LB Patrick Willis, Mississippi
Personal comment: In all honesty, I think the Bills are better off with Beason at WLB and Crowell at MIKE than they are with whatever combination of Willis/Crowell. That said, Willis might be too tantalizing, and has the better value.
11. San Francisco 49ers
They may get tempted to join the flurry of trades, but in the end, they probably sit pat. I think the one DL that makes the most sense might get the nod, and that is
San Francisco 49ers pick: DL Adam Carriker, Nebraska
Personal comment: Personally, I’d look elsewhere. I’m just not sold they need to look DL in round 1, especially since this is a critical year (year 3 of a regime is always big) and they are looking to move up. That said, it makes sense with the age of Young. Carriker’s ideal.
12. Houston Texans f/ Buffalo Bills
They could look to deal again, but I just don’t see the options, and as noted, I wasn’t completely in love with the move at 10. Thus, a pick, and the nod goes to
Houston Texans pick: WR Ted Ginn Jr., the Ohio State
Personal comment: If Ted Ginn Jr. goes in the top 20, I think a team will have to show real patience. Does Kubiak and Co. have that patience? OL is quite tempting … but they may just be wary enough of making a move for Staley here.
13. St. Louis Rams
I just don’t see Alan Branch here. If Justin Harrell had another month … he might be a thought, as he’s definitely on the uptick. Do they look defensive end and Jamaal? In the end, the nod is to
St. Louis Rams pick: CB Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh
Personal comment: Without a glaring need, taking a corner makes some sense. I know some Rams posters believe they are fine, but Bartell’s more of a nickel guy long run, and Brown isn’t going to block a top talent. Addressing DE/DT in rounds 2 and 3 could allow them to find better fits, and better values.
14. Carolina Panthers
What exactly are the Panthers going to do? A lot of buzz on receiver or Olsen … but they’ve actually hidden things real well. In this scenario, I think they go
Carolina Panthers pick: LB Jon “Jessie Armstead” Beason, the U
Personal comment: I’ve long been a fan of Beason, and I think he’ll do great at a number of positions. Olsen is certainly something to watch, and I wouldn’t rule out end either. Even WR has to be looked at. A lot of options … and a critical decision for a leadership that has to step up. If Ted Ginn Jr. fell a little more, I think they pull the trigger on that move … but I don’t see them moving up for Ginn Jr.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
This one’s hard to figure as well. A lot of buzz on a lot of guys, with Timmons as the predominant one being mentioned. How legit is that? I’ll bite
Pittsburgh Steelers pick: LB Lawrence Timmons, Florida State
Personal comment: I want to write in a corner, but if Tomlin finds a guy who he thinks can be a long term stud linebacker for him … I think it’ll be hard to pass. Especially a guy who might be able to be utilized soon.
16. Green Bay Packers
With 3 teams that run variants of the tampa-2 in house, they need a field stretching TE, and Bubba isn’t that. The nod goes to
Green Bay Packers pick: TE Greg Olsen, the U
Personal comment: I am torn between Lynch and Olsen. There seems to be rumors that the Packers might be the team that initiated a lot of the Lynch rumors out there, worried that he might not fall to them. By the next scenario, this may be Lynch. But Olsen has the rare physical potential that might be utilized greatly in this division, while providing a safety blanket for Favre and the future.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Some buzz on CB creeping in … but I safety still makes the most sense. Who? The questions about the U’s streak would definitely seem laughable if this happened.
Jacksonville Jaguars pick: S Brandon Meriweather, the U
Personal comment: I still prefer Nelson … but I like Meriweather as well. Both are very much in play.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Is DL a darkhorse possibility? I think so. But if the DB value is there, I think they go that route. I was tempted to go the trade route (Denver in particular)… but in the end,
Cincinnati Bengals pick: CB Leon Hall, Michigan
Personal comment: I still think Chris Houston is the best corner in this draft, and I wonder if he’s a better fit. But Hall might be tough to pass up, a solid guy able to step in and help immediately.
19. Tennessee Titans
They would be giddy with joy if all these options were available. DE, DT, WR, and CB could all be addressed. So where do they go? The guess here is probably DL, despite glaring holes at WR and CB. Who? The nod goes to
Tennessee Titans pick: DE Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas
Personal comment: A lot of mixed comments on Anderson … and he could go high or low, but I think this is about right. I’ve long thought Anderson was loaded with potential … but significantly overhyped. Branch is a tempting thought, though.
20. New York Giants
A lot of potential areas to look but
Projected Trade:
Kansas City gets the 20th and 116th overall
New York Giants get the 23rd and 84th overall
Can KC really stand put if Joe Staley is within sight? I can’t see it. Staley could start inside, or he could slide Terry/McIntosh inside. There’s a chance Denver targets Staley … so can they afford to wait?
Kansas City Chiefs pick: OT Joe Staley, Central Michigan
Personal comment: Love Staley … and if KC can land him, that’s the best route to go, IMO, as it helps shore up the OL, which has gone from a strength to a question, due to age.
21. Denver Broncos
For the longest time, I thought that they may be itching to move up … or down. Just not staying in place. If things break this way, though, I think they do stay put and take
Denver Broncos pick: DT Alan Branch, Michigan
Personal comment: Unless the injury questions are really severe, it’ll be hard for them to pass. Alan Branch is Jim Bates type of 4-3 DT. Draft status somewhat reminds me of the small fall that Vince Wilfork took a few years ago.
22. Dallas Cowboys
A lot of buzz pointing to a WR lately. It’s possible … but I still wonder about it. The nod goes to
Dallas Cowboys pick: WR Robert Meachem, Tennessee
Personal comment: This one took awhile to work out in this scenario. Lynch was given long thought here … but I’d have to see some Julius action first, and that’s died down. Aaron Ross got a long consideration, and seems like an ideal CB for Wade. Wade had a similarly raw player in Cromartie last year as well. Bowe/Jarrett got considerations, but in the end, I wonder if a big, downfield target may intrigue the most. Personally, I’m wary of Meachem.
23. New York Giants f/ Kansas City Chiefs
Dealing down and not missing out on any CB’s would be what they desire. If that happens, they’ll still have a lot of options. Who? Nod goes to
New York Giants pick: CB Eric Wright, UNLV
Personal comment: I’ve had Wright and Houston as my top 2 corners on my personal list for awhile, and there seems to be a sufficient push that Wright’s past might not hurt him as much as some think. That said, Houston or Ross could be options here, and both could be nice fits.
24. New England Patriots f/ Seattle Seahawks
I think they stay put here, if the board falls this way, and another DB comes off the board. Who?
New England Patriots pick: S Reggie Nelson, Florida
Personal comment: Corner is definitely tempting … but safety addresses a more immediate area. Now … if Samuel gets dealt, that changes the dynamics. For my money, here’s the safety I’d still put my money with.
25. New York Jets
What do they Jets go with here? The DB run continues, as the Jets go with
New York Jets pick: CB Chris Houston, Arkansas
Personal comment: I don’t think they are as gung-ho on CB as it’s made out to be, but if a good fit comes along, I think they’ll look. Houston is the type of guy that might excel in their schemes, and might convince them to stay put.
26. Philadelphia Eagles
A lot of buzz on CB recently, with some of the talk being Sheldon Brown to safety (and William James possibly starting). Certainly intriguing. For now
Projected Trade:
Buffalo Bills get the 26th overall
Philadelphia Eagles get the 43rd and 74th overall
Eagles could use the extra assets, and I’m hard pressed to say that there’s any talent whose value is off the charts here relative to a fit. Bills nod goes to
Buffalo Bills pick: RB Marshawn Lynch, California
Personal comment: I don’t think they are really considering Lynch anymore at 12, but if he falls, I’ll be surprised if some team (Buffalo/Green Bay) doesn’t take a stab at moving up. For all the RB’s moving into the 2nd round area, there’s still a fairly sizable gap between Lynch and the next guy. Lynch might not end up falling this much. For my money, I think he’ll have the best career, with his all-around abilities and versatility, plus his fluid running. They definitely need a back, and despite two trades, they still have another day 1 pick to address CB, and they’ve potentially addressed two top needs so far. This would be my SOD so far in round 1.
27. New Orleans Saints
With the Jason David move, it does beg to question how strong of an interest CB is. How the David situation plays out will be worth watching. As of now, I’ll stay with my recent pick and that is
New Orleans Saints pick: DT Justin Harrell, Tennessee
Personal comment: They need work against the run, and if they can get David, they might wait on CB depth. LB is a thought as well, and Pos seems like the type of guy that Payton might like, but impact DT talent is a need for them, and Harrell’s solidified a late first/early 2nd standing.
28. New England Patriots
They added a DB. I think they’d love to move down.
Projected Trade:
San Francisco 49ers get the 28th overall
New England Patriots get the 42nd, 104th, and a 4th rounder in 2008
I look for the Niners to try to be aggressive. Just too many picks. They nab
San Francisco 49ers pick: WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU
Personal comment: Niners still need a top target, and Bowe’s skillset blends well with Lelie’s 1-dimensional game (okay, maybe a bit harsh). They know Bowe from the Senior Bowl.
29. Baltimore Ravens
So, I had an early first frenzy of trades, and it’s looking like a late first frenzy.
Projected Trade:
Detroit Lions get the 29th overall
Baltimore Ravens get the 34th and 101st overall
Lions might get aggressive, particularly if it doesn’t cost much. Nod goes to
Detroit Lions pick: LB Paul Posluszny, Penn State
Personal comment: Had the Ravens stayed put … nod might’ve been to Kalil. Dropping down to 34 could put them in position for Kalil, and also netting an early 4th compensates for the loss of the late 3rd. I’m not sure on the Posluszny fit, but they will look LB, and he does seem like a Rod type. CB and Ross was a thought.
30. San Diego Chargers
I think they’ll try hard to move up … but I didn’t see it. So what now? A number of options here, but DB may top the board. Where do they go? Nod goes to
San Diego Chargers pick: S Michael Griffin, Texas
If they pass on safety here, the value is questionable later, and they need a safety.
Personal comment: Not much to say. Griffin makes sense, although how they utilize him would be interesting.
31. Chicago Bears
If they stay pat, they’d certainly have options here. Options abound. Nod goes to
Chicago Bears pick: WR Anthony Gonzalez, the Ohio State
Personal comment: What do I think? I think the LB value that makes sense is off here. I think OL doesn’t seem likely, due to having the entire starting unit returning. TE lacks value, RB isn’t a first round priority. DT lacks value, and DE is unlikely. Thus, DB or WR, and while Ross is tempting, they do have a pick at 37, DB isn’t that glaring, and one Devin Hester in the return game. Thus, WR, and while Jarrett was a long thought, Gonzalez is viewed as having a solid floor, high potential, and might be tempting here. Tough to figure out which way my own team is leaning … and a case could be made with a number of options.
32. Indianapolis Colts
They need interior DL, but value’s off. Could they look trade? Sure. But they nab
Indianapolis Colts pick: CB Aaron Ross, Texas
Personal comment: If they lose David, they’ll have added a 4th. For all their DB picks in recent years, losing two guys is a concern. LB fit is questionable here, DL value is off, and WR value is good into the 2nd as well. OL doesn't seem likely, and RB can likely wait. The added bonus with Ross, if he falls this far, is his help in the return game.