What are the odds? (A CJ "what if?" thread)

[Aard]

The conventional wisdom has the Raiders selecting JaMarcus Russell #1 overall, much to the delight of Lions fans everywhere. Russell-to-Oakland puts Millen in the driver's seat of the 2007 draft.

But...what are the chances -- in your opinion -- that Calvin Johnson is selected #1 overall instead, either by Oakland or by someone trading with Oakland into the #1 spot?

I'm pessimistic. While I think it's highly unlikely the Raiders trade out of the top spot, I do believe they have a plan (even if it's Plan B) to draft CJ for themselves.

Here's my take:

35% chance Oakland drafts CJ

5% chance Oakland trades out of the top spot (with an 80% chance that the team trading up selects CJ)

[asmitty45]

10% OAK takes CJ
0.1% OAK trades out of #1 spot

90% OAK takes JRuss

[detroit4life]

10% OAK takes CJ
0.1% OAK trades out of #1 spot

90% OAK takes JRuss

perfecy except that doesnt equal zero

[Addict]

10% OAK takes CJ
0.1% OAK trades out of #1 spot

90% OAK takes JRuss

100.1 % your math is off.

[WMD]

100% JaMarcus to Oakland. That is all.

[asmitty45]

100.1 % your math is off.

dammit ok

9.9% OAK takes CJ
0.1% Trade Down
90% OAK takes JRuss