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Sure thing / highest risk...

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  • #16
    Kenny Phillips, Dan Connor, Jake Long, Darren McFadden, Ali Highsmith, Malcolm Jenkins, and Keith Rivers are all players I would view as the surest things in this draft. I don't quite understand why people would ever put a defensive lineman as a sure thing, considering the high boom/bust history of the position, even if its Dorsey or Ellis. People really underestimate the transition for many positions from the skill level required in college to the NFL. The leap in terms of how much better you have to be at running routes, reading defenses, using technique to pass rush, etc. is pretty huge. I am much more likely to label someone a sure thing if they play a position that is mostly natural physical ability and instincts, without much of a learning curve- linebackers and running backs, basically. If a LB or RB has great physical tools and great college production, its pretty much ensured they're going to be good in the NFL. You either hold on to the ball and try to run away from people, or run and try to tackle people- theres not a huge change for either position from college to the pros.

    Jake Long and Kenny Phillips get on my list because both of them have been consistently incredible while playing in very pro-style schemes, and both have great physical tools and instincts to go with their experience playing an NFL style game.
    “Some people try to find things in this game that don't exist but football is only two things - blocking and tackling.”

    - Vince Lombardi

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    • #17
      Originally posted by TitanHope View Post
      No, more Reggie Bush is necessary. Harp on him all you like, but so far he has almost 800 yards of total offense and 6 TD's. Thats not shabby by any means, especially considering the Saints offense, and entire team at that, is horrificly inconsistent and was so out of sync early on.
      Actually, almost 800 total yards is kind of shabby when there's at least 2 rookies with more total yardage in return yards alone. I could probably name off like 15-20 guys minimum with more total yardage than Bush not including QB's.



      Originally posted by Jakey
      WWWWWWWWWTTTTTTTTTTTTFFFFFFFFFFF!!!

      i am literally gonna kick a baby to death!

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      • #18
        i dont think colt brennan is a boom or a bust candidate since he prob wont be a first round selection. after round one the stakes arent nearly as high of course.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by ironman4579
          Actually, almost 800 total yards is kind of shabby when there's at least 2 rookies with more total yardage in return yards alone. I could probably name off like 15-20 guys minimum with more total yardage than Bush not including QB's.
          Well, considering Bush has only 12 return yards, most of his yardage is coming from the offense. 451 rushing yards and 4 rushing TD's, and 304 yards receiving and 2 receiving TD's. If he ends with 900 rushing yards and 8 rushings TD's, and 600 receiving yards and 4 receiving TD's, which is what he's on pace for, I'd say that that's pretty good considering the Saints this year. A poor man's Brian Westbrook, if you will.
          Still Team The Ke$ha!!!

          [@TDWinstead]
          Originally posted by MichaelJordanEberle (sabf)
          Damn Ke$ha is sexy.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by TitanHope View Post
            Well, considering Bush has only 12 return yards, most of his yardage is coming from the offense. 451 rushing yards and 4 rushing TD's, and 304 yards receiving and 2 receiving TD's. If he ends with 900 rushing yards and 8 rushings TD's, and 600 receiving yards and 4 receiving TD's, which is what he's on pace for, I'd say that that's pretty good considering the Saints this year. A poor man's Brian Westbrook, if you will.
            But again, I think the point is that Bush gets all this hype, and yet there are so many players that do more just at his position alone, not to mention some WR's. I mean, just taking a quick look(like 2 minutes) I found 7 RB's alone with more total yardage than Bush, and those were the first 7 I looked at. And the 2 rookies have more return yardage than Bush has total yardage.



            Originally posted by Jakey
            WWWWWWWWWTTTTTTTTTTTTFFFFFFFFFFF!!!

            i am literally gonna kick a baby to death!

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            • #21
              Originally posted by IrishBrowns View Post
              Reggie Bush is already one of the most popular players in the NFL, and hes gonna be a face in the NFL for a long time.....
              Why the hell did you have to mention Reggie Bush? Look what happens. =(

              I propose a new rule that states that Reggie Bush cannot be mentioned ever again. Just for the sake of keeping a good thread to its actual purpose. How many times has the same ****ing argument been said.


              Originally posted by Halsey
              I don't have to watch it to know it was not interesting.

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              • #22
                if Earl Bennett comes out, he cant fail. Hes got natural sweat stick-up on his hands, he catches everythin

                I sit on fred taylors, i ride on 28's

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                • #23
                  I like Chris Long, Jake Long, and Kenny Phillips...

                  also on Bush....Peterson already has more Rushing yards in 9 games than Bush does in his entire career (25 games)....Bush is a very good player, but a franchise RB? i wouldnt say that, as of now, i would even say hes a poor mans Brian Westbrook, again, hes a great offensive weapon, and if he turns out to be as good as Westbrook, that'll be good, but he just doesn't run the ball as well as I would like from a RB....

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                  • #24
                    In terms of just the top players I'd say that Jake Long is the safest bet with Brian Brohm and André Woodson having the most boom or bust potential.
                    Scott Wright, President
                    Draft Countdown.com
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                    • #25
                      I'm gonna agree and i think the general consensus is jake long will be one of the safest even at LT. I feel even if he struggled at LT he could switch to RT and dominate. The next guy that i absolutely loved and would have loved on the inside along harris for the jets was Jasper Brinkley. I just don't see him failing as an ILB, hes got good athleticism and what he doesn't have he could make up with his ability to shed blockers and get to the ball carrier.

                      A guy i think could be a pretty big reward but HUGE risk is Marcus Monk.

                      "When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time."

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                      • #26
                        these based off first round projections:

                        sure things:
                        jake long
                        mcfadden
                        keith rivers

                        boom or bust:
                        calais campbell
                        andre woodson
                        desean jackson

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Ewing View Post
                          I'm sorry if I'm derailing the thread here but I have to comment on this...

                          He's marketable, big ****ing deal. As one of his biggest supporters coming out of the draft I'm sick of him taking so long to explode. It took Adrian Peterson has been over hundred yards on the ground five times already in his career including two two-hundred games(one where he set the single game rushing record). Guess how many one-hundred yard games Bush has? One. He's taking too long to learn how to run in the NFL and I'm officially off the bandwagon.
                          I guess Reggie is just going to have to go to A-Rod's Christmas party and not yours.

                          :'(

                          Let's get some activity going in the Cleveland sub-forum!

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                          • #28
                            Scott...what is it you see in Jake Long? People project him as a LT, but his footwork doesn't seem fast enough to me to stop elite edge rushers...he doesn't get back in pass pro well enough to me. What is it you see, I mean I see that he's a physical specimen...but I see him as more of a RT...

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by BroadwayJoe10 View Post
                              I'm gonna agree and i think the general consensus is jake long will be one of the safest even at LT. I feel even if he struggled at LT he could switch to RT and dominate. The next guy that i absolutely loved and would have loved on the inside along harris for the jets was Jasper Brinkley. I just don't see him failing as an ILB, hes got good athleticism and what he doesn't have he could make up with his ability to shed blockers and get to the ball carrier.

                              A guy i think could be a pretty big reward but HUGE risk is Marcus Monk.
                              That is what they said about Gallery, Oakland's #2 pick overall. There is no such animal as a sure thing, the adjustment from college to pro ball is just too huge.
                              And proud of it!!!

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                              • #30
                                I hate saying that any lineman defensive or offensive is the safest pick, because aside from leverage, I don't know a damn thing about technique.

                                Usually I think of the safest pick as a linebacker or rb.

                                The safest offensive pick is probably Jonathon Stewart. He is big, he is fast, he runs hard and hits the hole with authority. I don't see how this guy won't be successful.

                                I think Keith Rivers is probably the safest defensive pick - athletic, smart lb's generally don't fail too often. Lb is a position that allows for players with great instincts, play at a high level early on even while not being the most fundamentally sound.

                                Biggest risk I think is Desean Jackson. I love the guy, but he can get frustrated easily and can be taken out of games entirely. His speed and agility make him a possible gamebreaker at wr or returner. He has lapses in concentration and drops some balls here and there. Plus if he gets put on a team with a qb who can't throw the deep ball it really minimizes his ability to be a playmaker.

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