Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Why it is pretty much impossible for New England to trade down

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Why it is pretty much impossible for New England to trade down

    This is going to be very long. There is already a thread on what New England should do since as of right now they have the #2 overall draft pick via the San Francisco 49ers.

    You guys are in Imaginatoinland if you think someone is going to trade up for Darren McFadden this high in the draft. There have already been metioned reasons why trades in the top 5 (even top 10) are so rare. Keylime mentioned that runningbacks are a dime a dozen in the NFL. No one is going to trade up for Jake Long, Chris Long, etc. It just isn't worth it. Teams can stand pat and have a great draft. Only McFadden is truly elite so he is the only player a team would even consider trading up for.

    So, lets look at the top 10 and discover how all of you geniuses out there that think New England being able to trade down is such a great possibility:

    3. STL (Steven Jackson)
    4. OAK (LaMont Jordan, but could use Darren McFadden)
    5. NYJ (Thomas Jones, must address other needs and can't afford to trade up)
    6. CIN (Rudi Johnson, must address other needs)
    7. ATL (must address other needs)
    8. NO (Reggie Bush)
    9. BAL (Willis McGahee, must address other needs)
    10. KC (Larry Johnson)
    11. MIN (Adrien Peterson

    And then the rest of the draft can't afford to trade up that high, and the Patriots don't want to be picking that low considering what they already have.

    I will explore the only trade possibility, and that is with the Oakland Raiders, since RB is somewhat of a need, Al Davis loves elite athletes, and they are picking near the #2 spot. Here is the updated draft order, and Scott's trade value chart.

    http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.htm
    http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/fea...aluechart.html

    Oakland Raiders have these 2008 NFL Draft selections currently available to them, point values are in parentheses:
    1. #4 (1800)
    2. #35 (550)
    3. *They traded their 3rd rounder to New England, not available.
    4. #101 (96)
    5. #132 (40)
    6. #163 (26.2)
    7. #194 (13.8)

    New England has the 2nd overall pick as of right now, it is worth 2600 points total. All of Oakland's picks add up to a grand total of 2526. Now, we know Oakland will not pull a Mike Ditka and mortgage their draft just to have an elite runningback. It is just dumb when this team has a ton of needs.

    Oakland would only offer New England #4 and #35 (2350 points) for New England's #2 overall (2600).

    New England might accept it, but I tell you why this won't go down. Oakland doesn't have a 3rd rounder. They trade up for McFadden, and now they aren't picking again until pick #101. They pretty much are gambling their entire draft on Darren McFadden. It isn't smart. Oakland needs receivers. They need an OL.

    But that is the only trade possibility, and I don't think it is a smart trade for Oakland.
    Last edited by BucSappy; 11-20-2007, 07:31 PM.

  • #2
    You are limiting trades to draft picks within this drafting season. Let's say Oakland gets really hungry for McFadden if he's at 2. They could spin the 1st/2nd this year and offer a 2nd next year to balance things out (or a 3rd, depends on how the Pats count future value).

    One trade aspect I would watch for is a team moving up for a LT. With Jeff Otah and Ryan Clady both moving up, there's a chance that some may view them as elite tackle prospects, and if they feel they are LT's, they may gamble for it since several other teams at the top could use LT's. Clady's slowly reminding me a bit of Walter Jones (was big on Clady before the year, but not Walter Jones level). I'm a bit wary of Otah due to the weight, but spin it back to the UVA game. He did a good job there, and that's as good as an end tandem as there is in the country (Chris Long and Jeff Fitzgerald). Jeff did well against UVA last year also.

    That said, I do agree for the most part that trade possibilities in the top 5 is going to take some team really loving someone and that the market isn't great. I could see some movement in the 6-10 area.

    Comment


    • #3
      You are right and wrong.

      There is one problem behind this theory, it doesn't take into account future considerations.

      What if someone falls in love with Matt Ryan?

      I don't want to look it up, but I know QB's are almost a lock in the last decade of the NFL draft.

      I'm not saying anyone is better than anyone. I just think that it's possible for a team to fall in love with a QB through the combine & workouts.

      Even the year Alex Smith & Aaron Rodgers were the top QB's (considered a sub par QB class at the top) a QB still went #1.

      No one can predict what will happen in the future.

      Yes, it will be difficult for NE to trade down. However, it's not impossible.

      I actually have this feeling its bound to happen.
      INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: SUPER BOWL XLI CHAMPIONS!

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by toonsterwu View Post
        You are limiting trades to draft picks within this drafting season. Let's say Oakland gets really hungry for McFadden if he's at 2. They could spin the 1st/2nd this year and offer a 2nd next year to balance things out (or a 3rd, depends on how the Pats count future value).

        One trade aspect I would watch for is a team moving up for a LT. With Jeff Otah and Ryan Clady both moving up, there's a chance that some may view them as elite tackle prospects, and if they feel they are LT's, they may gamble for it since several other teams at the top could use LT's. Clady's slowly reminding me a bit of Walter Jones (was big on Clady before the year, but not Walter Jones level). I'm a bit wary of Otah due to the weight, but spin it back to the UVA game. He did a good job there, and that's as good as an end tandem as there is in the country (Chris Long and Jeff Fitzgerald). Jeff did well against UVA last year also.

        That said, I do agree for the most part that trade possibilities in the top 5 is going to take some team really loving someone and that the market isn't
        great. I could see some movement in the 6-10 area.
        I did that on purpose. I can't evaluate every trade possibility. Secondly, I don't think trading future picks is a smart thing to do if your team has a lot of needs such as the Raiders.

        As good as Clady is, I don't think he will ever be worthy of a top 3 pick, or even worthy of a blockbuster trade. Teams just don't deal up high in the draft unless it is for a quarterback, but you make a good argument.

        Comment


        • #5
          If some team offers up a future first NE will bite. Someone else mentioned in a thread that Atlanta could dangle Deangelo Hall to move up.

          Comment


          • #6
            Who says it has to be McFadden? If Jake Long doesn't go #1, most of those teams on that list would need him. Especially KC, who needs Oline desperately and would have no shot at him at 10.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by IndyColtScout View Post
              You are right and wrong.

              There is one problem behind this theory, it doesn't take into account future considerations.

              What if someone falls in love with Matt Ryan?
              Doesn't matter. Teams picking this high have other needs and it isn't smart to deal high draft picks when you need to fill out your depth chart with young talent.

              Teams picking 3-6 have no need at all for a quarterback. No reason to trade up if you are Atlanta to #2 overall, when you pretty much have to give up your entire 2008 draft (or at least their first, second, and third rounders) and probably a high 2009 pick., and Ryan will probably fall to them anyways since like I said teams 3-6 don't need a QB.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Scotty D View Post
                If some team offers up a future first NE will bite. Someone else mentioned in a thread that Atlanta could dangle Deangelo Hall to move up.
                Atlanta has way too many needs on their team to trade away a 2009 1st rounder.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Well, there's a pro and con to the argument on trading future picks. Sure, it's a risk, but if you feel a guy is going to be a stud and help, then not making that move would be more problematic, as you never really know how the next draft class looks like. That said, there's always the risk of backfire, such as what has happened to the Niners. It also comes down to how big the need is.

                  I think people are low on Clady on msg boards due to his slow start this year. Coming into the year, he was considered a high pick if he came out, but he struggled early. That said, he's been real good for the last few picks. He has a superb combination of size and footwork. I like Jake Long, but as of now, I'm not sure that Jeff Otah and Ryan Clady aren't both on Long's level, if not higher.

                  Now, one aspect that would make a team more likely to target a young tackle is if they have a young QB (or if your OL sucked awfully this past year). That said, the opposing argument to a team moving up for a LT is that there's good tackle depth this year. I mean, why take a tackle in the top 10 when you could land a Chris Williams, Sam Baker, or Gosder Cherilus in the mid-first to early 2nd range.

                  At the end tis early, and only time will let us know if teams fall in love with certain players.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    This is very stupid. I very much like how you have "must address other needs" for half the teams. Like that even matters... Yeah the lions really needed to take WRs in the first round like 10 years in a row.. Yeah each NFL team does exactly what makes sense, and thats definitely why we're able to predict what happens in the draft in terms of trades and who goes where..

                    Saying that NE may not trade down is a possibility, but saying they cant, is the dumbest thing i have ever heard in my entire life.

                    Mr. Bucsappy, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this thread is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
                    Last edited by Average OT LB; 11-20-2007, 07:50 PM.


                    sig by bosanac01

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by BucSappy View Post
                      Doesn't matter. Teams picking this high have other needs and it isn't smart to deal high draft picks when you need to fill out your depth chart with young talent.

                      Teams picking 3-6 have no need at all for a quarterback. No reason to trade up if you are Atlanta to #2 overall, when you pretty much have to give up your entire 2008 draft (or at least their first, second, and third rounders) and probably a high 2009 pick., and Ryan will probably fall to them anyways since like I said teams 3-6 don't need a QB.
                      The draft order isn't even set yet. Some team could lose out, our another practically win out and make the playoffs. No order is set in stone yet.
                      INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: SUPER BOWL XLI CHAMPIONS!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by BrownsTown View Post
                        Who says it has to be McFadden? If Jake Long doesn't go #1, most of those teams on that list would need him. Especially KC, who needs Oline desperately and would have no shot at him at 10.
                        Explain to me how Kansas City is going to trade up all the way from 10th to 2nd. They have way too many needs to address to give up so many draft picks/future picks to move up that high. Add up the points and explain to me exactly how it will happen.

                        Why trade up that high when there are capable LT prospects in this draft such as Ryan Clady and Sam Baker?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by IndyColtScout View Post
                          The draft order isn't even set yet. Some team could lose out, our another practically win out and make the playoffs. No order is set in stone yet.
                          I know. But we are talking hypothetically, for fun, but lets be realistic about it too.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BucSappy View Post
                            Explain to me how Kansas City is going to trade up all the way from 10th to 2nd. They have way too many needs to address to give up so many draft picks/future picks to move up that high.

                            Why trade up that high when there are capable LT prospects in this draft such as Ryan Clady and Sam Baker?
                            You keep saying way too many needs, when we've seen many, many, MANY times in the past teams are willing to forsake other needs to fill one for good. Case in point, the Browns. They essentially thought they were giving up a top 5 pick for Quinn, one that they could have used on the unfilled NT spot, for a QB. Clady and Baker are good, but Long is in a different class as far as how polished he is. A franchise LT is more than important enough to trade up for.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by BucSappy View Post
                              Explain to me how Kansas City is going to trade up all the way from 10th to 2nd. They have way too many needs to address to give up so many draft picks/future picks to move up that high. Add up the points and explain to me exactly how it will happen.

                              Why trade up that high when there are capable LT prospects in this draft such as Ryan Clady and Sam Baker?
                              I could give you one hypothetical example off the top of my head. Lets say MIN sucks ass for the rest of the year (not saying they will talking hypothetical here). MIN would finish somewhere around 4-10. Lets just pick a number and say six. So MIN offers the #6, #37, Chester Taylor, and a future conditional day one pick to NE in exchange for their higher pick which they would use to pick either Jake Long or Matt Ryan. NE would take that in a heart beat.
                              INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: SUPER BOWL XLI CHAMPIONS!

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X

                              Debug Information