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2nd & 3rd Round QB's

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  • 2nd & 3rd Round QB's

    Hey,

    Those who have been around a while probably know my theory on quarterbacks selected in the second or third round but I finally got around to writing an article explaining and examining it.

    You can find it via the main page:


    Feel free to discuss it in this thread.
    Scott Wright, President
    Draft Countdown.com
    www.draftcountdown.com

    Twitter: twitter.com/DraftCountdown

    Draft Countdown Podcast, Every Tuesday at 8 PM EST
    www.blogtalkradio.com/draftcountdown and on iTunes


  • #2
    Great read and some great information you put together Scott
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    • #3
      I agree with you Scott, but there is another extreme here.

      It seems that teams that are picking in the top 10 are a bit too eager to pull a trigger on a QB who is far from sure thing.

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      • #4
        thanks for writing that scott. great read on a subject i've been very interested in. some random thoughts though:

        -what about the fact that a first round QB is given some luxury and resources that a 2nd or 3rd round pick just wouldn't have.
        ex1) if a 2nd or 3rd rounder played the way Eli Manning played his first couple years, he probably wouldn't have lasted long enough to finally succeed.
        ex2) if Kellen Clemens or John Beck were drafted in the first round, they might have gotten the keys to the offense by now instead of watching their teams trade for Favre and Pennington respectively.

        it seems with the NFL draft, salary isn't the only thing that's slotted by draft position. if you're a first round pick, the team will work towards making sure you have all the knowledge and resources necessary to be successful. but, anything after round 1, and you're on your own.

        also, not totally related, but i'd love to see the success rate of 1st round QBs that sit for a year compared to the rate for QBs that start in their first year.

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        • #5
          nice read, the stats certainly don't lie

          agree with alot of what drowe posted


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          • #6
            Another thing I noticed (and this is a pretty small sample size) is that when a team trades back up into the 1st Round to select a QB or takes one at the end of the 1st Round, they don't tend to succeed. Could this simply be putting 1st Round pressure on a 2nd Round talent?

            From 1992-2005, not a single QB drafted in the 1st Round, after pick #15 has gone on to be a franchise QB. There have been 10 QB's drafted in that area and 7 of them have been busts, it's still too early to tell on 2 of them (Aaron Rodgers and Jason Campbell), and the last one is Chad Pennington (who's not really a bust, but I don't consider him a franchise-type QB).

            In the same time period, there have been 24 QB's drafted in the top 15 picks. 8 of those have been what I consider a franchise QB, 15 can be considered busts (at least in terms of not living up to their draft slot), and 1 of them (Philip Rivers) is still up fro debate. That means, if you draft a QB in the top 15 there is about a 33% chance you will find a franchise QB.

            So not only do you want to draft your QB in the 1st Round, but you want to draft him in the top 15.

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            • #7
              Great read Scott, we actually discussed this in IRC a few days back.

              I think what Green Bay did this season made sense too though. Take a QB in the 2nd or 3rd, then go with a flyer in the 7th as well. Though they didn't have the situation that "needed" it, it increases your odds a bit.


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              • #8
                Coaching and system has a lot to do with it as well.

                Most of these QB prospects come to NFL with basically a clean slate.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by JBond93 View Post
                  Great read Scott, we actually discussed this in IRC a few days back.

                  I think what Green Bay did this season made sense too though. Take a QB in the 2nd or 3rd, then go with a flyer in the 7th as well. Though they didn't have the situation that "needed" it, it increases your odds a bit.
                  yes. i think if anything, teams need to adjust their philosophy on grooming QBs. it's NEVER a bad idea to just have a young project QB on your roster to learn the system, just in case. considering guys like Marc Bulger, Tom Brady, Derek Anderson and David Garrard were just in the right place at the right time, i think a lot of teams could learn from this. you could either fill your roster with veterans with a proven record of mediocraty, or just use that 3rd QB slot to draft a guy you like and hang on to him for a rainy day.

                  i enjoyed scott's entry, but i think to just pick the 2nd and 3rd round is pretty arbitrary and it's more about what teams want out of their pick than it is about the actual player.

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                  • #10
                    [QUOTE=drowe;1185523]thanks for writing that scott. great read on a subject i've been very interested in. some random thoughts though:

                    -what about the fact that a first round QB is given some luxury and resources that a 2nd or 3rd round pick just wouldn't have.
                    ex1) if a 2nd or 3rd rounder played the way Eli Manning played his first couple years, he probably wouldn't have lasted long enough to finally succeed.
                    ex2) if Kellen Clemens or John Beck were drafted in the first round, they might have gotten the keys to the offense by now instead of watching their teams trade for Favre and Pennington respectively.

                    it seems with the NFL draft, salary isn't the only thing that's slotted by draft position. if you're a first round pick, the team will work towards making sure you have all the knowledge and resources necessary to be successful. but, anything after round 1, and you're on your own.

                    ---If this had any validity at all, then we wouldn't see too many QB's drafted late become starters in the league. Of course a 1st round pick is going to get 1st crack at the job. The team and HC obviously thought he was special but the fact remains that where you were drafted gets you 1st crack but if you impress the HC, especially on winning teams that have a sound Management team, It won't matter what pick you were. It didn't slow down Tom Brady one iota that he was a 6th rounder. A HC wants to win, he's not interested in where you were drafted. If he sees talent he won't hesitate to pull the trigger.
                    Clemens and Beck have had ample opportunity to demonstrate their abilities and before Favre and Pennington were even in the picture, the Jets and Miami HC's didn't like what they saw in both of these 2nd rounders.

                    also, not totally related, but I'd love to see the success rate of 1st round QBs that sit for a year compared to the rate for QBs that start in their first year.

                    ---Here is another myth that circles around the NFL and their fans. Successful QB's in the NFL are mentally tough or they wouldn't be stars. These guy let very little bother them and just get up and keep on coming. The QB's who fail in the NFL simply lack that mental toughness to survive. Even if they are put with a successful franchise, they never approach any kind of success you thought they would.
                    Mental toughness is very hard to judge when assessing talent in a QB and that is why so many fail while lessor talented players move on and have real success. It also explains why so many flops at QB in the NFL are associated with some of the worst talent appraising GM's that ever ran a draft. People assume because say Harrington went #3 in the draft that every other GM would have drafted Harrington at that spot given the same conditions, but I think that is far from the case. The great talent appraisers in the NFL would likely have seen Harrington's weaknesses and passed on him no matter where they were picking. The same for Carr, Couch and Akili Smith. Their GM's simply put, stunk when drafting, piling up truly poor records of any success at the draft table, at any position. These GM's accounted for an awful lot of flops during their careers so drafting QB's that flopped should come as no surprise.
                    A QB has to be a leader on a team with the ability to urge lessor talents to play above their talent levels but if they lack mental toughness, nobody will play any attention to them, and that was the fate for the above mentioned flops. You put Tom Brady or a Peyton Manning on the same teams and believe me they would soon be contenders.
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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by njx9
                      for what it's worth, the rate of "success" in the first round is about 9/34 (+/- aaron rodgers) or 26%.
                      I think you could make an argument to get that number up to 15 or 16 out of 34 depending on how stringent you are with your definition of "success" too.
                      Scott Wright, President
                      Draft Countdown.com
                      www.draftcountdown.com

                      Twitter: twitter.com/DraftCountdown

                      Draft Countdown Podcast, Every Tuesday at 8 PM EST
                      www.blogtalkradio.com/draftcountdown and on iTunes

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                      • #12
                        Just to touch on one more thing...

                        There are plenty of reasons why guys fail to live up to expectations, whether they are 1st, 2nd or 3rd round picks. However, the point of the article was just to point out that, for one reason or another, the track record for 2nd and 3rd rounders is not very good at all.
                        Scott Wright, President
                        Draft Countdown.com
                        www.draftcountdown.com

                        Twitter: twitter.com/DraftCountdown

                        Draft Countdown Podcast, Every Tuesday at 8 PM EST
                        www.blogtalkradio.com/draftcountdown and on iTunes

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                        • #13
                          That's purposely why Washington waited until the 6th round to draft Colt Brennan.

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                          • #14
                            I think that draft ratios of success are interesting (as are the standards set for success), but in the end, this is about individual players. It's hard to make any sort of statement about where the "safest" place to draft a position is considering that that player is the single biggest factor in their success or failure by miles.

                            Yes, as a general rule, the talent in the first round is both more talented and more proven than those in later rounds. And, of course, the success rate of those quarterbacks is also considerably higher than it is in any other point of the draft. Even when looking at how much higher the investment is in the first round versus later rounds, there aren't much more accepted ways to spend money in this league than on a quarterback.

                            Another general rule of the draft has to be that players who not just have to ability to succeed, but to excell, will invariably slip down to later spots. While passing on a quarterback early in favor of picking one up later is conventionally backwards, there are many instances of time where less than worthy players get their stock raised and teams tend to target on particular guys that they like and know they can get later on. Indeed, quarterbacks as a whole tend to bunch up in the first round (one-third of all the passers chosen in the first 5 rounds since '95 were 1st rounders) because their inherent value in the position they play gets their stock elevated.

                            On one hand, Scott is absolutely right. If players break down the way we think they should (more promising players go early and get less promising as the draft goes along), then debating whether to take one now or later is an easy answer. But evaluating talent and people will never be that straightforward, and so teams will continue to wonder if they really need that college superstar when there's a talented but less hyped quarterback available down the line.

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                            • #15
                              Thanks to all for their varied responses. I guess if you like a guy grab him as early as you can (though I'm not sure Alex Smith is in this catergory).

                              My biggest concern (am I'm an Aussie without a history of American football) is this: If I'm investing $20+M in guarenteed money for a QB shouldnt I expect a better success rate than 25% ? NFL teams have scouts all over the country, there's the draft combine and private workouts so why is the success rate so low ?

                              Australian rules football (AFL) has a rookie salary cap for 2 years. Granted our kids are 17 - 19 when drafted but their all on a level (and low) playing field until year 3 when a team can realistically evaluate their progress. Performers earn the good money and 'busts' are usually cast aside or resigned at a reduced rate.

                              How long until rookies in the NFL have their salary capped ? I'm sure that teams then would be prepared to take a fly on a promising QB.


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