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  • If Stafford falls past Detroit...

    Honestly after listening to that interview, I don't think it would be very sinful of the Lions to pick him over Stafford.

    The only two players that should be on Detroit's radar are Stafford or J. Smith. Only at QB or LT can you really justify the contract that comes with the first pick.

    That being said, if we take a look at where Stafford could fall - this draft gets VERY interesting.

    Lets look at a situation like this:

    1. Detroit - Not Stafford
    2. Rams - Can't justify Stafford here at all.
    3. Chiefs - With the success of Thigpen, Brady and Cassel there is no way in hell the Chiefs take a QB in the first round.

    Once Stafford falls past 3, all bets are off. 95% of all mock drafts are out the window and ESPN has a great drama unfolding.

    4-7: Teams that have no interest in a first round QB, and probably too high for a team to try to move up.

    8. Jacksonville - I could see Jacksonville taking a QB at 1-8, but the whispers indicate that they do not have Stafford as the top QB in this draft. They are one of the great minority of NFL teams that have Sanchez number one. Stafford will not go here.

    9. Green Bay - Here is where I think Stafford could be picked. Not by Green Bay, of course, but I think this is the draft position that a trade makes the most sense - for several reasons:

    1. Green Bay doesn't have a must have guy, IMO. They would love to add a linebacker here to fit their new 3-4 defense, but at this point Cleveland and Kansas City will have picked, so there is a good chance that the two best 34 players are gone.

    2. San Fransisco is sitting at 10 and they lack a franchise QB so this is the last chance to jump in front of Singletary. I don't think San Fransisco is going to trade away players to get Stafford, but I think they very well could pick him should he be thrown in their lap.

    3. Ted Thompson: He is one of the best General Managers in Professional Football, so here is a guy that knows how to work a trade. I think he is smart enough to accept a good trade.

    Now of course - who would trade up?

    There is really only two teams that I think have a big enough a need at QB that would trade up: the New York Jets and the Minnesota Vikings. What makes this even more interesting is the fact the Vikings should be better prepared to trade up, but will Green Bay listen?

    Why Matt Stafford will be a Viking:
    Minnesota is a team with far less holes, so they have the draft space to trade up.

    If you look at Minnesota's needs, they have three needs outside of QB to address:

    They need a Right Tackle, a Center and a young CB to play nickle.

    These are positions that they won't fill in the first round - these are all positions you draft in day 2, ESPECIALLY in this draft.

    Not only that, but Minnesota is a team that has proven in the past they are not afraid of trading draft picks to get a player they want. Last year they looked at their team, saw a huge need for a pass rusher and they went out and trade several picks to get Jared Allen. Its obvious they will look at their team and see a need to address QB - unless they see Sage Rosenfil as the real answer for this team, and not simply a replacement for Gus, I think they would kill for a chance at Stafford.

    Why Stafford will NOT be a Viking:
    The conflict is this...would Green Bay give Minnesota a franchise QB?

    This of course brings us to the New York Jets...

    Why Stafford will be a Jet:

    The Jets would love Matt Stafford, and its easy to see Stafford fitting in New York. This is a player that has always been in the lime light, he was THE Texas QB (off topic: watch Friday Night Lights), he went to one of the best programs in the country for college and he is enjoying the spot light as QB-1 in this draft. Personality wise, its a great fit (this guy's no Chad Pennington).

    The Jets also have more ammo in the draft to trade than Minnesota - besides being 5 spots higher than the Vikings at 17, the Vikings traded away their fourth round pick (on a QB no less) and while the Jets traded their third round pick to Green Bay for Brett Favre they get New Orleans third round thanks to Jon Vilma. Plus New York has an extra fourth round pick they got from Washington last year.

    Its also worth mentioning that while Mangenius is gone from New York, the front office from last year is still there as is Green Bay's, so these two sides know each other well from the Brett Favre trade.

    Why Mathew Stafford will not be a Jet:

    The Jets have cap issues and to date only have 4 million in cap space. They have made several big free agent pick ups the last few years and that does come back in play here. If New York actively moves up to secure Matt Stafford, that's going to cost New York when it comes to negotiate a contract.

    The Jets also have far bigger needs than Minnesota. Thomas Jones is over 30, they need some help at corner and could really use a top defensive end.

    I really enjoy this sort of speculation in the draft, and this will not be the last time I address this.

  • #2
    I can see him going to the Rams or the Chiefs.

    "He's the leader of the next great class of NFL players." - John Elway on Matt Ryan

    Comment


    • #3
      You bring up a valid point. Now if Detroit takes Aaron Curry #1, he won't fall past the Chiefs. But, if Detroit takes and OT, he could be in for a free fall come draft day. The Chiefs would probably lean Curry over Stafford. Personally, my opinion is that Brady Quinn > Matt Stafford so it isn't impossible that Stafford could be sitting a while in the green room. But like you mentioned, if a team was really sold on him, they might trade up. But teams may feel like if the difference between Stafford and Sanchez isn't significant enough to move up, they may just stay put and hope Sanchez falls into their laps. Unprobable, but nonetheless, a potentially intriguing scenario.
      Last edited by TACKLE; 02-26-2009, 12:45 AM.

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      • #4
        The idea that "with the success of Thigpen no way in hell the Chiefs take a quarterback in the 1st round" is complete bullcrap. Exactly what Success did Thigpen have? Going 1-10 as a starter? Having a 56% completion percentage (give or take a few tenths)? Only look decent when the team switched the entire offense to one that over the long run does not work in the NFL?

        What exactly leads people to believe he is anything special? His horrible accuracy? His below average size for a quarterback? His weak arm?

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        • #5
          He won't fall past KC. The only way I see it is if both Curry and Stafford are there, and I just don't see that happening.

          Between the Lions and Rams, one of Curry and Stafford will be gone, possibly both.

          KC's big board should look like this:

          1.) Curry
          2.) Stafford
          3.) Kill self.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by StorminNorman View Post
            3. Chiefs - With the success of Thigpen, Brady and Cassel there is no way in hell the Chiefs take a QB in the first round.
            "No way in hell" is way too strong of a comment for a team that has no franchise QB at all right now, and it's not like Thigpen did anything to stop a team from taking a perennial franchise QB.


            Stafford at #3 would be a great pick.





            Originally posted by Scott Wright
            I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.

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            • #7
              you have to wonder what will happen in free agency though. theres a possibility that the chiefs trade for cassel, maybe detroit does. who knows

              "Even when winnings not probable, losings not optional"

              Comment


              • #8
                Threads like this make it clear how many fans underestimate how good a QB prospect Stafford is, how valuable QB's are and how much of dropoff there is after Sanchez and Stafford. Stafford or maybe Sanchez are the only picks the Lions can justify. The Lions already have 3 first round OT's on their roster. They have no business adding one with a #1 pick contract. Stafford is going to be the #1 pick and if he somehow wasn't, there's no way he falls past the Chiefs. People can talk about Brady and Cassel all they want. The Chiefs don't have Bill Belichik coaching for them. Tyler Thigpen in no way justifies passing on Stafford. If it were to turn out that both Thigpen and Stafford were quality starting QB's, the Chiefs could just trade one of them down the line. Having more than one quality QB is a good problem to have.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by LonghornsLegend View Post
                  "No way in hell" is way too strong of a comment for a team that has no franchise QB at all right now, and it's not like Thigpen did anything to stop a team from taking a perennial franchise QB.

                  Stafford at #3 would be a great pick.
                  Yah. Agreed fully.

                  Thigpen played well enough to keep them from reaching for the draft's #2 QB...Stafford is head and shoulders ahead of Sanchez if you ask me and the Chiefs should take him in a heartbeat if there.

                  The only person I would even consider otherwise is Curry simply because he would impact that defense so greatly....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by kmartin575 View Post
                    The idea that "with the success of Thigpen no way in hell the Chiefs take a quarterback in the 1st round" is complete bullcrap. Exactly what Success did Thigpen have? Going 1-10 as a starter? Having a 56% completion percentage (give or take a few tenths)? Only look decent when the team switched the entire offense to one that over the long run does not work in the NFL?

                    What exactly leads people to believe he is anything special? His horrible accuracy? His below average size for a quarterback? His weak arm?
                    Originally posted by LonghornsLegend View Post
                    "No way in hell" is way too strong of a comment for a team that has no franchise QB at all right now, and it's not like Thigpen did anything to stop a team from taking a perennial franchise QB.


                    Stafford at #3 would be a great pick.
                    Thigpen showed enough to I think allow the team the spend this pick building a defense. I am sure the Chiefs would probably look at a QB in draft as well, and they may even want to look at Graham Harrel if he falls into the free agency.

                    Originally posted by Halsey View Post
                    Threads like this make it clear how many fans underestimate how good a QB prospect Stafford is, how valuable QB's are and how much of dropoff there is after Sanchez and Stafford. Stafford or maybe Sanchez are the only picks the Lions can justify. The Lions already have 3 first round OT's on their roster. They have no business adding one with a #1 pick contract. Stafford is going to be the #1 pick and if he somehow wasn't, there's no way he falls past the Chiefs. People can talk about Brady and Cassel all they want. The Chiefs don't have Bill Belichik coaching for them. Tyler Thigpen in no way justifies passing on Stafford. If it were to turn out that both Thigpen and Stafford were quality starting QB's, the Chiefs could just trade one of them down the line. Having more than one quality QB is a good problem to have.
                    I think Detroit SHOULD draft Matt Stafford - this is speculation on what happens if they pass.

                    I just don't see the Chiefs taking Matt Stafford, especially if Curry is on the board.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      http://www.nfl.com/combine/story?id=...s&confirm=true

                      This Pat Kirwan mock I read has Stafford falling all the way to the Jaguars!
                      10 Favourite prospects for 2010: Colt McCoy, Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, Noel Devine, Ndamukong Suh, Greg Hardy, Eric Norwood, Travis Lewis, Eric Berry, Trevard Lindley

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                      • #12
                        I have a hard time seeing the Chiefs passing on Stafford at 3 exactly because they have Thigpen, a pretty good quarterback although not someone who strikes me as a guy who can put a team over the top: Exactly who you want starting while you spend 1-2 years developing an incredibly talented but not ready for prime time prospect. This is exactly what Stafford needs if he is going to reach his potential, and it's a pretty good situation for Thigpen knowing that he'll be the starter earning his payday that he'll just have to get on another team.

                        I don't like Stafford much, but in this environment he could be a hit.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by BeerBaron View Post
                          He won't fall past KC. The only way I see it is if both Curry and Stafford are there, and I just don't see that happening.

                          Between the Lions and Rams, one of Curry and Stafford will be gone, possibly both.

                          KC's big board should look like this:

                          1.) Curry
                          2.) Stafford
                          3.) Kill self.
                          I think Orakpo would fit well in KC.

                          "He's the leader of the next great class of NFL players." - John Elway on Matt Ryan

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BeerBaron View Post
                            He won't fall past KC. The only way I see it is if both Curry and Stafford are there, and I just don't see that happening.

                            Between the Lions and Rams, one of Curry and Stafford will be gone, possibly both.

                            KC's big board should look like this:

                            1.) Curry
                            2.) Stafford
                            3.) Kill self.
                            If this happened I like Crabtree here to give Thigpen the talent to run the spread he's best in.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Solomon View Post
                              http://www.nfl.com/combine/story?id=...s&confirm=true

                              This Pat Kirwan mock I read has Stafford falling all the way to the Jaguars!
                              I still just disagree with the idea of Detroit not taking a QB. They aren't just some team who had a down year and could get by taking an OT and going with some stop-gaps at QB for a year. They are one of the worst franchises in sports history coming off an epically bad, winless year...And I don't think any of the LT's available are Orlando Pace caliber studs. Andre Smith was the only person with a shot at that level and he'ls gone and blown it badly. Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe would be upgrades for sure, but I think you need to take the QB who can be the face of your franchise.

                              If I were them, I'd trade a 4-12 year with Culpepper/Orlovsky at QB and a good young LT for a 2-14 year with the potential future franchise QB getting some valuable experience in Stafford.

                              Cushing at 9 is also just silly, heh....I'd like it as a Bears fan though.

                              I do love his Bears pick.

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