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What is good value?

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  • What is good value?

    Hi,

    This is the first draft I have followed and there is alot of talk about someone being good value in whatever round and so on. My question is what you consider to be good value for a pick in the middle of round 1,2,3,4-5 and 6-7.

    For example your answer could look like this

    Mid round 1 pick: Solid starter for at least 8 years
    Mid round 2 pick: Average starter for at least 6 years
    Mid round 3 pick: Average starter or solid backup for at least 6 years
    Round 4-5 pick: Average backup and good special teamer
    Round 6-7 pick: Average backup or solid special teamer

    What im trying to find out is what you could expect from a certain draft pick when they retire some years down the road.

  • #2
    You want a first rounder to be at least a worthy Pro Bowler a couple of times.

    A second rounder is more of a solid starter for a while, a 3rd you want at least average.

    Look at the players going in the mid-first round. Larry English, Percy Harvin, Josh Freeman - all are risky picks with huge ceilings. Teams aren't taking these guys thinking "oh, hopefully they'll be solid for 8 years", they're taking them thinking "if this kid pans out, he could be something special that we remember long after he's gone".

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    • #3
      1st - Pro Bowler
      2nd - Quality starter
      3rd - Average starter
      4th/5th - Quality backup
      6th/7th - Quality special teamer

      Comment


      • #4
        Good value, in relation to a draft pick, has nothing to do with how they perform in the NFL. In fact, when we say a pick has good value that means that the player was rated higher than where your team picked him. For instance, this year Ray Mualuaga (sp?) was slated to be a mid to late first round pick. The Bengals picked him in the second round, thus making that a good value pick for that team because they got him a decent amount later than everyone thought he would go.

        There are many different factors that can go into calling someone a good value, but this should give the info you need going forward. You should be able to figure the rest out.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by RavenOfProphecy View Post
          1st - Pro Bowler
          2nd - Quality starter
          3rd - Average starter
          4th/5th - Quality backup
          6th/7th - Quality special teamer
          This is good, probably can't ask for a more concise or accurate description IMO.

          Any of the later rounds could include boom-or-bust type flyers, as well, or just developmental players in general.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by pr0d1gy View Post
            Good value, in relation to a draft pick, has nothing to do with how they perform in the NFL. In fact, when we say a pick has good value that means that the player was rated higher than where your team picked him. For instance, this year Ray Mualuaga (sp?) was slated to be a mid to late first round pick. The Bengals picked him in the second round, thus making that a good value pick for that team because they got him a decent amount later than everyone thought he would go.

            There are many different factors that can go into calling someone a good value, but this should give the info you need going forward. You should be able to figure the rest out.
            I understand this but the important part is still how they perform in the NFL, if Rey sucks big time and leaves the NFL after 3 years its obv bad value no matter what we thought before the draft

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            • #7
              Originally posted by zinna View Post
              I understand this but the important part is still how they perform in the NFL, if Rey sucks big time and leaves the NFL after 3 years its obv bad value no matter what we thought before the draft
              Yes, but you are asking what good value means in a draft forum, so I have laid out the answer for you a plain and detailed manner. If you want to know what good value means on a draft forum, then just look at the lengthy description i wrote for you. That is exactly what we mean when we say "good value" when discussing the draft, drafted players, and picks made during the draft.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by zinna View Post
                I understand this but the important part is still how they perform in the NFL, if Rey sucks big time and leaves the NFL after 3 years its obv bad value no matter what we thought before the draft
                Nah all value has to do with is, reach vs getting a guy late then expected. Prodigy is exactly right, it all has to do with draft day itself and picking the players themselves and the ratings.

                You take Rey at 37, when he was perceived as a 15-25 guy is a 'good value'. [Because you got him later then expected.]

                You take Mike Mitchell at 47 when he was a perceived 7th rounder and that is a 'poor value'. [Because you could have gotten him later or someone else better rated at the time.]

                Beyond the draft the draft it's more of a boom/bust type deal. Like the Maualuga example in the quote.



                [Now that I said all that, value technically means nothing. No one can tell the future and the worst value ever could turn into Jesus on the football field.]
                Last edited by initial_flo; 05-04-2009, 08:16 PM.

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                • #9
                  Ok, I might have asked the wrong the question then.

                  If you are running a team, what are you hoping for with a draft pick. Same picks as earlier.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by zinna View Post
                    Ok, I might have asked the wrong the question then.

                    If you are running a team, what are you hoping for with a draft pick. Same picks as earlier.
                    No, it's not the wrong question and there is no right answer even though you have a couple of responses that believe there is. What is good value? Teams and people are going to see Robert Ayers at 18 and say it was one of the best value picks in the draft. Why? Because he's the best defensive player in this class. Does everyone agree with that? No.

                    Good value is a term coined by talking heads that means next to nothing. Was Rey good value? Michael Johnson good value? No, they weren't because they kind of suck, but since their profiles are so big, people assume it's good value without realizing that they dropped for a reason.

                    What is good value? It's all in the eyes of the person who values the player in question. There is no consensus. Alex Smith was terrible value in 2005. Atrocious value. So wasn't Joey Harrington. DHB was terrible value this year.
                    Originally posted by Scott Wright
                    I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.
                    Originally posted by PossibleCabbage
                    I would like it if there were more successful black Quarterbacks in the NFL...
                    Originally posted by bearsfan_51
                    iamcandian lives in a cabin in the Yukon Territory and writes letters to railroad barons about the price of hard tack.
                    Originally posted by GatorsBullsFan
                    I could possibly see Matthew Stafford Dropping out of the 1st round
                    Originally posted by GoRavens
                    Tahj Boyd has the best fundamentals of any QB in this class, I think his game translates great to the NFL.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by zinna View Post
                      If you are running a team, what are you hoping for with a draft pick. Same picks as earlier.
                      A top 10 pick should be a franchise player. An Adrian Peterson, a Calvin Johnson or a Joe Thomas.

                      A first rounder should be a starter that plays for a long time and has a successful career. Pro Bowl caliber that's regarded as one of the best players at his position.

                      A second round pick should be a starter as well that sees similar success to a first rounder.

                      A third round pick should be a starter, but not necessarily a Pro Bowl player. If you have a hole at RB, and you take a RB in round 3, you should feel as though you have filled that need. Are you getting a star? You shouldn't expect it, but you should find a productive player.

                      Rounds 4 through 7 range from rotational guys (Round 4) and backups (Round 4) to special teams guys (Round 5) all the way to projects that have little chance of seeing or making your team (Rounds 6 and 7).

                      Anyone who looks at a teams picks in round 6 and 7 and talks about value needs their head checked, because you're talking about a majority of guys that will never make an NFL roster.
                      Last edited by BigBanger; 05-05-2009, 06:46 AM.
                      Originally posted by Scott Wright
                      I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.
                      Originally posted by PossibleCabbage
                      I would like it if there were more successful black Quarterbacks in the NFL...
                      Originally posted by bearsfan_51
                      iamcandian lives in a cabin in the Yukon Territory and writes letters to railroad barons about the price of hard tack.
                      Originally posted by GatorsBullsFan
                      I could possibly see Matthew Stafford Dropping out of the 1st round
                      Originally posted by GoRavens
                      Tahj Boyd has the best fundamentals of any QB in this class, I think his game translates great to the NFL.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by BigBanger View Post
                        A top 10 pick should be a franchise player. An Adrian Peterson, a Calvin Johnson or a Joe Thomas.

                        A first rounder should be a starter that plays for a long time and has a successful career. Pro Bowl caliber that's regarded as one of the best players at his position.

                        A second round pick should be a starter as well that sees similar success to a first rounder.

                        A third round pick should be a starter, but not necessarily a Pro Bowl player. If you have a hole at RB, and you take a RB in round 3, you should feel as though you have filled that need. Are you getting a star? You shouldn't expect it, but you should find a productive player.

                        Rounds 4 through 7 range from rotational guys (Round 4) and backups (Round 4) to special teams guys (Round 5) all the way to projects that have little chance of seeing or making your team (Rounds 6 and 7).

                        Anyone who looks at a teams picks in round 6 and 7 and talks about value needs their head checked, because you're talking about a majority of guys that will never make an NFL roster.
                        Thx, This is what I was looking for

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by zinna View Post
                          I understand this but the important part is still how they perform in the NFL, if Rey sucks big time and leaves the NFL after 3 years its obv bad value no matter what we thought before the draft
                          no. rey in the 2nd is good value no matter what. he was a potential top 10 pick dating back to last year and the bengals got him in the 2nd round. 5 years from now even if he sucks, he was still a good value in relation to where they drafted him

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by sbh15 View Post
                            You want a first rounder to be at least a worthy Pro Bowler a couple of times.
                            Eh, for the mid to late first, I think that's asking a bit much. Case in point, i don't expect Dustin Keller to ever be a pro bowler for the Jets, but I do expect him to be a very good starting tight end. Some other examples I would cite any #2 running back or any right tackle drafted in the first round. There have been maybe 3 right tackles this decade who have made it to the pro bowl. How many running back duos have made it to the pro bowl recently?

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by foozball View Post
                              no. rey in the 2nd is good value no matter what. he was a potential top 10 pick dating back to last year and the bengals got him in the 2nd round. 5 years from now even if he sucks, he was still a good value in relation to where they drafted him
                              This cant be right, this is not a madden fantasy draft where a 98 player in the second round is obv a steal because he will preform as a 98 player. Even though everyone thought Rey would go earlier and there for right now is good value he cant be considered good value in 5 years if he sucked for all 5 years.

                              Am I the only one who thinks like this?

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