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Topic Revisited: When to draft a QB?

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  • Topic Revisited: When to draft a QB?

    Something that has been discussed almost every year is when a team in need of a QB should draft one. Scott created an excellent thesis about drafting players in the 2nd or 3rd round, and the failure rate:

    So, it seems like taking a player in the 1st round would be the best bet, but still risky.

    Today on Twitter, a former Appalachian State QB and former NFL scout for the Ravens (as well as other teams,) Daniel Jeremiah is presenting another argument. Sign a veteran and draft a QB in the 4th-6th rounds. Here are some tweets from in debating the issue. I wanted to get your feelings:

    @MoveTheSticks: I like the Ron Wolff philosophy of drafting a QB late in the draft each year... you hit on 1 of 4, you are set and they come cheap..

    @MoveTheSticks: RT @ATL_Todd: What QBs did Ron Wolff hit on with that strategy?>> Brunell, Hasselback and Brooks

    @MoveTheSticks: Long story short.. In a new situation, I would only take a QB in rd 1 if I felt STRONGLY about him.. go vet and draft one in later rds

    @MoveTheSticks: RT @prosb4hos: Also Majkowski was a 10th rounder. And if you cant draft one, sign undrafted free agent QBs. Pack signed Kurt Warner too.

    @MoveTheSticks: pick up a guy like Sage Rosenfels and then draft a QB in the 4th-6th round 2-3 yrs in a row... odds just about as good and a lot cheaper

    @MoveTheSticks: Obviously, when you have a Carson Palmer/Peyton Manning type player, you have to pull the trigger... Some years are the top crop is muddier

    @MoveTheSticks: @ShanePHallam 6th round has been a pretty good QB round...

    @MoveTheSticks: RT @Sarxos: Problem is teams always feel strongly about the QBs they take in Round 1.>> not true, pressure to take one forces bad decisions

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  • #2
    "@MoveTheSticks: RT @ATL_Todd: What QBs did Ron Wolff hit on with that strategy?>> Brunell, Hasselback and Brooks"

    This guy got owned pretty hard.

    I actually like this strategy, or would if I didn't go to sleep with a picture of Rivers under my pillow every night. The cost of straight up missing on a 1st round QB is years from your franchise...develop some passers from later in the draft and spend your premium picks giving them tools to work with and you can have a lot of success.

    Although generally this might be a better strategy to employ as a middling team, not picking high enough to potentially snag the Hall of Fame QBs that come along every now and again.

    I guess the downside of pickign a late round QB every year is that you are not really giving any of these guys a chance to would need a really stellar coaching squad to pinpoint which of the picks has the best chance of success.


    • #3
      Originally posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
      not true, pressure to take one forces bad decisions
      This is something I absolutely agree with. There's no doubt that the large percentage of top notch quarterbacks are going to come in the first round. Those guys don't tend to be late bloomers or obscure college players. However, the desire of all the NFL teams to have a guy of that caliber drives up the stock of a lot of guys who have little business going that high.

      If you're a developing team, I actually do think that if a good vet is out there, signing him and then finding a quarterback you actually really like in the later rounds is the safer choice. Of course you'd be better off if you draft the next Peyton Manning, but the chances of that are incredibly slim.


      • #4
        Originally posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
        @MoveTheSticks: pick up a guy like Sage Rosenfels and then draft a QB in the 4th-6th round 2-3 yrs in a row... odds just about as good and a lot cheaper
        Sounds like a recipe for delicious success. Everyone knows damn well that Sage would get benched by Week 4 and then you're stuck playing your 5th Round project QB, who does nothing.. and then you earn the #1 Pick, which you decide to spend on that Franchise QB because bums don't win games!


        • #5
          Originally posted by Lions WMD View Post
          Sounds like a recipe for delicious success. Everyone knows damn well that Sage would get benched by Week 4 and then you're stuck playing your 5th Round project QB, who does nothing.. and then you earn the #1 Pick, which you decide to spend on that Franchise QB because bums don't win games!
          Yeah, signing a vet only works if that vet is better than Sage Rosenfels.


          • #6
            i like the idea of drafting a qb when you dont have 2 good ones on your team and theres one at the top of your draft board when its your turn to pick.


            • #7
              QB is a weird position. I either go balls in and take a guy I really like early, OR I draft a guy in the 4-6 round every year and hope one separates himself from the others.

              Actually I'll put it another way...if I have no O-line and marginal talent around them, I build that up first. THEN if there's a QB I really like I take him in the first round.

              Until the offense is built, I'd do the 4-6 round thing.


              • #8
                First and foremost, I have to ascertain what type of system I am running on offense. What type of quarterback would fit in with that system? Then it comes down to what position I am in the draft and the QB FA market.

                If I'm drafting in the top 5-10, then I would be more willing to draft a top notch QB. However, if I'm in the teens or later I would rather draft a position player, especially a left tackle for instance, to help who my QB will be in the upcoming year.

                I'm a very big proponent of sitting a rookie quarterback in their first year in the league, no matter who they are. I want to get them acclimated to the NFL, to the system, and to the offense. I also want a veteran QB, whether starting or not, to help tutor them. I think one of the best recent examples was Carson Palmer in Cincinnati. He sat behind Jon Kitna for a year learning the system. He took over the next year with a good grasp on the system.

                In essence, I'd rather go veteran QB, build up my OL, and draft QB in the later rounds and have them sit their first year so they can learn the system and learn from the veteran and give them a full year to develop.

                Beastly sig by BoneKrusher

                Super Bowl XLIV Champions
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                • #9
                  This is a load of crap.

                  Only a certain percentage of teams can sit there and draft QBs year in and year out in middle to late rounds hoping they get lucky. You take the Detroit Lions, a team picking in the top 10 every year, and you see how far that gets ya. Pick up a veteran FA? Culpepper? Okay, you gonna do anything with him? Yeah, you're gonna be picking in the top 10 next year again. Next year rolls around, you gonna pick up another vet? Yeah, we'll take some first round bust like Joey Harrington. Okay, now what have I done? Yup, another losing season with Harrington and Culpepper starting every other week. Picking in the top 10 again. Now I take that 5th round draft pick that I took two years ago, and now he takes some starts, but guess what? He ******* sucks. Yup, still got these two ******* douche bags name Daunte Culpepper and Joey ******* Harrington as my ******* ******** QBs. Guess what? Picking first overall. Not taking a QB since it's less money. Draft another in late rounds. That ************ that I took in round 4 doesn't make the ******* roster. Now, I'm stuck with Pep and Joey as my two ******* QBs... again. Top 10 again. Let's give Mike Vick a shot? Why not. Yeah, he still sucks. We're in the top 5 again.

                  Oh, we hit it big this off season. We got big ******* Sage Rosenfels during free agency. Holy ****!!! Look out for this team. Guess what? Top ******* 10 again. Now where the **** do we go?
                  Originally posted by Scott Wright
                  I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.
                  Originally posted by PossibleCabbage
                  I would like it if there were more successful black Quarterbacks in the NFL...
                  Originally posted by bearsfan_51
                  iamcandian lives in a cabin in the Yukon Territory and writes letters to railroad barons about the price of hard tack.
                  Originally posted by GatorsBullsFan
                  I could possibly see Matthew Stafford Dropping out of the 1st round
                  Originally posted by GoRavens
                  Tahj Boyd has the best fundamentals of any QB in this class, I think his game translates great to the NFL.


                  • #10
                    You also have to look at it from a larger perspective than just "find a quarterback". This conundrum generally regards teams that are perpetually down and out. They are the teams that have top 10 picks every year. Sure, there are teams that have a few down years, pick up a first round QB, and then spring back in playoff contention (I'm looking at you Baltimore), but a lot of these teams have huge problems with an attitude of institutionalized losing. While all teams want to build a championship squad, a lot of these cellar dwellers need a few seasons of .500 or close to .500 ball to change the general environment of their team, to become more attractive to potential free agents, and to build confidence in their fan base.

                    When it comes to quarterbacks, a veteran mentality and experience is usually going to help that happen quicker than it will with a rookie. Again, there are exceptions, as some rookies are supremely well suited to the demands of an NFL quarterback, but these guys are exceedingly rare. Not to implicate that a good veteran is an easy find either. That said, introducing a rookie quarterback to a team in a state of perpetual losing rarely ever goes the way you hope it would.


                    • #11
                      Id draft a QB once I know I have a reliable LT on the team. Then Id want to know if the top QB's fit my type of offence. If so I go after him, if not Id look in F/A or trade

                      "Just Win Baby"- Al Davis


                      • #12
                        Definitely want to get the pieces in place before I go ahead and try to win with one high priced asset. A quarterbacks play is usually indicative of the overall talent level of the rest of the team, for example Roethlisberger is by no means a top 5 QB talent in the league but he is a top 5 producer at the QB position because of the overall talent level of the steelers. This being said, I'd rather have a competitive team in place by drafting high for non QB positions for a few years and take gambles on late round fits and then after preferably three drafts spring a 1st round talent.


                        • #13
                          Obviously a lot goes into evaluating a QB, but as RaiderNation said you want him to have a good line and some weapons around him so he has something to work with. How many times have we seen top QB prospects thrown into the fire with no line and nothing to work with and they get destroyed? Their confidence gets shattered and that is the hardest thing to get back, all the blame goes to the QB and when the team is down he'll be labeled a bust.

                          I still think a team's franchise pick at QB needs to sit until he can walk into a situation where he can use his abilities. Sure there have been rookie QB's who have done well, but it rarely works when he has no time to throw and players he knows will get the job done to get the ball to.

                          Either that and just wait until pick #199, that could work too.


                          • #14
                            The bottom line is that you draft a quarterback in the 1st round. That gives a team the best chance of finding a franchise quarterback.


                            • #15
                              People have distorted views of drafting QB's because they are so high profile and everyone remembers 'busts' for years afterwards. If you mention drafting a QB high you will get 1,000 people making comparisons to Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, etc. When you mention drafting another position high, say DT or DE, people don't remember Courtney Brown, Steve Emtman, Aundrey Bruce, Dan Wilkinson, Gerrard Warren, Gaines Adams, etc. There's this idea that QB's are super risky and all other postions are safe. Perception is not always reality when it comes to the Draft.



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