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Some interesting thoughts on this year's QB crop

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  • #16
    Lol, what report made you think he's smarter than Goff? I've read that nowhere. Goff's strength is his intelligence and he's been called Andrew Luck like in that department. Goff actually handled pre-snap adjustments and went through multiple reads. His football IQ is FAR more advanced than Wentz's.

    Saying he took them to two straight titles is disingenuous as well. He was injured for a big part of the year and they won just fine without him, as they were a run first team that was stacked compared to their opposition. Wentz was their Trent Dilfer, along for the ride.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Nastradamus View Post
      Lol, what report made you think he's smarter than Goff? I've read that nowhere. Goff's strength is his intelligence and he's been called Andrew Luck like in that department. Goff actually handled pre-snap adjustments and went through multiple reads. His football IQ is FAR more advanced than Wentz's.

      Saying he took them to two straight titles is disingenuous as well. He was injured for a big part of the year and they won just fine without him, as they were a run first team that was stacked compared to their opposition. Wentz was their Trent Dilfer, along for the ride.

      Well, I heard that Goff didn't do all that well in his interview at the Combine and a couple of nights ago Mariuci(sp) put both Goff and Wentz through a tough on board analysis to show off their football IQ and Wentz put Goff in his hip pocket and after, all the people indicated that Wentz had superior intelligence. Take it for what it is worth.
      And proud of it!!!

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Iamcanadian View Post


        Well, I heard that Goff didn't do all that well in his interview at the Combine and a couple of nights ago Mariuci(sp) put both Goff and Wentz through a tough on board analysis to show off their football IQ and Wentz put Goff in his hip pocket and after, all the people indicated that Wentz had superior intelligence. Take it for what it is worth.

        Ill say this. I have no clue how the two guys interviewed or how they did on the white board tasks - both are relevant and go into the analysis, especially when you are about to place the entire franchise in the guy's hands for the next few years. That being said, physical ability, production and the nuances of the position matter.

        There are those things that can improve with practice and getting with a "QB Guru" and then there are those things that just dont. Pocket presence, the ability to make fast, accurate reads are things that dont seem to always translate, same with certain delivery quirks. Remember, many of these players have been practicing and drilling and playing for YEARS to get where they are now, trying to fix these habits has proven VERY difficult for many - even those with incredible work ethics.

        For me, I see the flaws in both and as a 49ers fan I am somewhat relieved we wont be spending a top 10 pick on either guy, however if push comes to shove Id take Goff.

        I like that he took inferior talent at Cal and had them playing at a higher level, I like that he played in a system where he made more reads, where he showed the pocket presence and the ability to make fast, accurate decisions. I like his elite level accuracy and most of all I like his ability to work under pressure. Under PFF's rankings he was rated the #1 prospect against pressure and against the blitz. He was also #1 in his 3rd down pass grade. I also place value in being a multiyear starter and playing with the expectations and pressure of being a potential #1 overall pick all year. Does he have some holes? Sure. He did have a few too many turnovers last year, he doesnt have the elite arm that you would love to have.

        Wentz on the other hand is a guy based almost exclusively on projection. You love his measurables, about an inch taller than Goff, very good athleticism. For a vertical passing team his physical ability and his on tape production excite - at least to a point. Under PFF's grading, Wentz had the 2nd highest adjusted completion percentage for intermediate throws (11 to 20 yards), however his deep pass accuracy was placed Wentz 30th out of the prospects for this year - for a player primarily being touted for his arm talent this concerns me. The other raised concerns are legitimate, his level of play matters when it comes to the speed of the game, speed of the reads he had to make and what he was accustomed to doing with this passes. Further, he is coming from a situation where his team routinely (always?) had the talent advantage. His lack of game experience does matter to me as well, his lost time due to injury stole from him a number of reps and practice that had to have had an effect on his development. I say all that not to say there is no way he can be an elite QB - he can - but he does have a lot stacked against him.

        What will benefit Wentz is that he is going to a team with a QB friendly coach and a team that I dont believe will rush him to the field either Bradford or Chase Daniels can handle things early on. Goff has the advantage of simply going to a more talented team that can focus on running while he gets comfortable with the system and as the Rams try to get him more weapons and security blankets - though Austin is at least some

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        • #19
          Originally posted by ndbigdave View Post


          Ill say this. I have no clue how the two guys interviewed or how they did on the white board tasks - both are relevant and go into the analysis, especially when you are about to place the entire franchise in the guy's hands for the next few years. That being said, physical ability, production and the nuances of the position matter.

          There are those things that can improve with practice and getting with a "QB Guru" and then there are those things that just dont. Pocket presence, the ability to make fast, accurate reads are things that dont seem to always translate, same with certain delivery quirks. Remember, many of these players have been practicing and drilling and playing for YEARS to get where they are now, trying to fix these habits has proven VERY difficult for many - even those with incredible work ethics.

          For me, I see the flaws in both and as a 49ers fan I am somewhat relieved we wont be spending a top 10 pick on either guy, however if push comes to shove Id take Goff.

          I like that he took inferior talent at Cal and had them playing at a higher level, I like that he played in a system where he made more reads, where he showed the pocket presence and the ability to make fast, accurate decisions. I like his elite level accuracy and most of all I like his ability to work under pressure. Under PFF's rankings he was rated the #1 prospect against pressure and against the blitz. He was also #1 in his 3rd down pass grade. I also place value in being a multiyear starter and playing with the expectations and pressure of being a potential #1 overall pick all year. Does he have some holes? Sure. He did have a few too many turnovers last year, he doesnt have the elite arm that you would love to have.

          Wentz on the other hand is a guy based almost exclusively on projection. You love his measurables, about an inch taller than Goff, very good athleticism. For a vertical passing team his physical ability and his on tape production excite - at least to a point. Under PFF's grading, Wentz had the 2nd highest adjusted completion percentage for intermediate throws (11 to 20 yards), however his deep pass accuracy was placed Wentz 30th out of the prospects for this year - for a player primarily being touted for his arm talent this concerns me. The other raised concerns are legitimate, his level of play matters when it comes to the speed of the game, speed of the reads he had to make and what he was accustomed to doing with this passes. Further, he is coming from a situation where his team routinely (always?) had the talent advantage. His lack of game experience does matter to me as well, his lost time due to injury stole from him a number of reps and practice that had to have had an effect on his development. I say all that not to say there is no way he can be an elite QB - he can - but he does have a lot stacked against him.

          What will benefit Wentz is that he is going to a team with a QB friendly coach and a team that I dont believe will rush him to the field either Bradford or Chase Daniels can handle things early on. Goff has the advantage of simply going to a more talented team that can focus on running while he gets comfortable with the system and as the Rams try to get him more weapons and security blankets - though Austin is at least some

          No problem with most of what you are saying, however when a prospect goes top 5, the likelihood of him sitting long just isn't going to happen. They will both be thrown to the wolves quite early in the season. The fans will demand it. Bradford will likely be traded and the Rams haven't a whole lot at QB besides their #1 pick. If they don't start right away, the best they can hope for is maybe 2 games on the bench.
          Last edited by Iamcanadian; 04-22-2016, 12:12 AM.
          And proud of it!!!

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Iamcanadian View Post


            No problem with most of what you are saying, however when a prospect goes top 5, the likelihood of him sitting long just isn't going to happen. They will both be thrown to the wolves quite early in the season. The fans will demand it. Bradford will likely be traded and the Rams haven't a whole lot at QB besides their #1 pick. If they don't start right away, the best they can hope for is maybe 2 games on the bench.
            As for Goff, I agree. The cupboard is pretty bare in LA and with the team starting fresh in the new city I expect him to be the day 1 starter. What benefits him is that the load he should be required to carry should be a lot lower in light of the fact that they should have a 100% healthy Gurley and the focus will be on defense, ball control without making him do too much, too early.

            Wentz, is the one everyone seems to agree needs time. He is coming from a much lower competition level, doesnt have the same starting experience and just needs to "get up to speed." (Pun intended) I would think Philly would slow play him a bit, Bradford likely will be let go (or traded), Chase Daniels is there for a reason. I agree the fan base will want to see him, but Id hope the team and coaching staff knows that giving him some time to adjust would be in everyone's best interest. Ill be curious to see what they do, but if Wentz grasps things as well as people seem to think he can, then he may get out there because he is truly the best option. What should help him is that the Eagles at the #10 Offensive line as rated by PFF last year and they do have some talent on the roster at the skill positions to help.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Iamcanadian View Post


              Well, I heard that Goff didn't do all that well in his interview at the Combine and a couple of nights ago Mariuci(sp) put both Goff and Wentz through a tough on board analysis to show off their football IQ and Wentz put Goff in his hip pocket and after, all the people indicated that Wentz had superior intelligence. Take it for what it is worth.

              I watched the white board things after you posted this. I thought they both looked the same, but they weren't really asked to do much. Its no secret that Goff handled pre-snap responsibilities(a very big deal these days) this past year and Wentz never has. Goff's biggest strength is his ability to operate under pressure IMO. That's how you separate yourself in the NFL as a QB. He also has better deep ball numbers than Wentz fwiw. To add one more factor, he also had crap talent around him.

              Here's a good Goff quote, since you seem confused about his arm strength

              "I was lucky enough to be able to watch the game live, and I was impressed mostly by Goff’s arm strength and his ability to make powerful NFL style throws down the sideline, forcing the Air Force defense to spread out. He’s a standard pocket passer that is able to throw accurately even under duress, and during the Armed Forces Bowl, Goff used his powerful arm and deep threat ball to shred the Air Force defense."

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Nastradamus View Post


                I watched the white board things after you posted this. I thought they both looked the same, but they weren't really asked to do much. Its no secret that Goff handled pre-snap responsibilities(a very big deal these days) this past year and Wentz never has. Goff's biggest strength is his ability to operate under pressure IMO. That's how you separate yourself in the NFL as a QB. He also has better deep ball numbers than Wentz fwiw. To add one more factor, he also had crap talent around him.

                Here's a good Goff quote, since you seem confused about his arm strength

                "I was lucky enough to be able to watch the game live, and I was impressed mostly by Goff’s arm strength and his ability to make powerful NFL style throws down the sideline, forcing the Air Force defense to spread out. He’s a standard pocket passer that is able to throw accurately even under duress, and during the Armed Forces Bowl, Goff used his powerful arm and deep threat ball to shred the Air Force defense."

                Thanks for the quote.

                I agree. Its interesting how some of these attributes get mischaracterized over time. Goff may not have an "elite" arm in the sense that he is in the top 1% of NFL QBs, yet the story keeps being told and now people make comments about his arm "being a concern." Goff has an NFL arm. Period. Further, arm strength is actually something that can improve, if only slightly. Remember Goff is 21 years old and wont turn 22 until 5 weeks into the NFL season.

                The other story that seems to be overblown is this idea of physical traits and how Wentz is so far superior. I think it is worth nothing that Wentz is already 23 (a year and 10 months older than Goff) while he is 1 inch taller, 20lbs heavier with arms 1 inch longer and hands 1 inch longer. Hand size, all jokes aside is worth noting, but because Goff is at an acceptable size it becomes a bit irrelevant when comparing the two. Now, I grant that Wentz is the superior athlete, the tape and testing bears it out, however many people may be surprised to hear Goff ran a 4.82 in the 40 and Wentz a 4.77. So at the end of the day we have a guy with a stronger arm, who is a slightly better athlete who is 1 inch taller and 20lbs heavier - while being nearly 2 years older.

                My point is, Goff has NFL size, can and will add more weight as he matures with the other slight athleticism advantages Wentz has being negligible when the focus should be on how they throw the ball, how accurate they are and how they perform under pressure. Goff is #1 against the blitz and pressure and #1 on 3rd down passing while being rated ahead of Wentz on every accuracy measurement. Further, he rated higher at every level of passing except the 1-5 yard section. That means from 6-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40 and 40+ it was Goff who rated more highly for those types of passes.

                So again, does that mean Wentz cant be a solid NFL QB in the right system and put up numbers? Of course not, but if we are trying to pick one or the other, give me Goff and save the re-tread half-truth (at best) statements about arm strength and physical abilities for the casual fans.

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                • #23
                  I think Goff's biggest asset is his escapability, he has that unique sense of when to shuffle his feet in the pocket to gain time. I would rate his ability to buy time as top notch. he does not have a big arm, but it is good enough for him to be a solid WCO QB. On arm strength alone, he cannot thread the ball into tight places. There is no panic in him, hence his pocket presence is solid.. I would rate him as fearless.

                  He has a chance to be a very good QB, but I just don't know if he can be a great franchise QB.

                  Wentz has by far the superior arm, he also is the better athlete and throws well on the run al la Ben Roethlisberger.. Just my opinion along with a # of NFL.com scouts, but I don't think accuracy will be a problem.

                  What Goff has going for him is level of competition and # of games started, but Wentz definitely has the higher upside. This has been stressed over and over by NFL personnel appraisers on NFL.com. You don't get to be ranked as the likely #1/2 overall pick, by a team that gave up a boatload of picks to acquire him, because you lack talent, in fact, it is extremely impressive that a QB from such a small school could even reach these heights, you have to have a real 'wow' factor to gain this much in the rankings..
                  And proud of it!!!

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Iamcanadian View Post
                    I think Goff's biggest asset is his escapability, he has that unique sense of when to shuffle his feet in the pocket to gain time. I would rate his ability to buy time as top notch. he does not have a big arm, but it is good enough for him to be a solid WCO QB. On arm strength alone, he cannot thread the ball into tight places. There is no panic in him, hence his pocket presence is solid.. I would rate him as fearless.

                    He has a chance to be a very good QB, but I just don't know if he can be a great franchise QB.

                    Wentz has by far the superior arm, he also is the better athlete and throws well on the run al la Ben Roethlisberger.. Just my opinion along with a # of NFL.com scouts, but I don't think accuracy will be a problem.

                    What Goff has going for him is level of competition and # of games started, but Wentz definitely has the higher upside. This has been stressed over and over by NFL personnel appraisers on NFL.com. You don't get to be ranked as the likely #1/2 overall pick, by a team that gave up a boatload of picks to acquire him, because you lack talent, in fact, it is extremely impressive that a QB from such a small school could even reach these heights, you have to have a real 'wow' factor to gain this much in the rankings..

                    Wentz is an interesting case study. I really dont mean to be negative or to detract from what he is capable of or what he has already achieved, but I have my concerns. He is such an elite level talent and athlete that no one knew who he was prior to the season and he got a shout out from Mel Kiper Jr about midway through. Then as the process continued he got some hype and went from "likely a first round or second round prospect" to being in contention for the #1 overall pick. This type of ascendance isnt impossible, and there are examples of guys every year that seem to come from relative obscurity to being top picks and top players, but still - if I am banking my job on a player and I am going to unload a ton of assets to get the player (which is what either the Rams or Eagles have done) than I better be sure about it. What about Wentz could make them so "sure?" He has above average athleticism for the position (but he is not an "elite" athlete. He does have the arm talent which may rate near elite, but he appears to lack most of everything else. He isnt even a full 2 year starter, he doesnt have elite accuracy, already had injury concerns, comes from a small school, doesnt make all the reads and routinely could make 1 or 2 reads and throw - and now he is going to be the "face" of an NFL franchise. I just cant help but think that this is all too much, too soon for no particular reason.

                    For comparisons sake - why is Wentz head and shoulders over a guy like Paxton Lynch? I am not a Lynch apologist and I think he is better off in round 2 and needs a season or two to develop, but Lynch seems to be getting killed by the pundits and "draftniks" after first being shown a lot of love mid-way through the college football season when Memphis was hot and he was putting up some gaudy stats. Lynch and Memphis cooled off down the stretch, he had a poor bowl game and now people rate him much lower. Meanwhile Wentz wins a championship with a loaded team at a much lower level of competition and gets to ride the way of positive hype to what appears to be the #2 overall pick.

                    This may all sound like I am purposefully downplaying Wentz or thinking he is going to bust - Im not. I dont have a crystal ball and I dont KNOW he will be a good one or bad one, but I challenge those who do love him to point to something other than physical characteristics in feeling so confident that you would spend the #1 or #2 overall pick on a guy you hadnt heard of a year ago, coming off wrist surgery, who is already 23 years old (a fact I place some significance in when it comes to physical ability and development). Again, could it all work out? Absolutely. It sounds like he is going to a good situation in Philly where he can take some time to develop, is with a coach who can "coach up" a QB and a team that has a decent o-line and some other pieces already. That may be the most important part of all - where these guys land and what is expected of them.

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                    • #25
                      When I look at a QB prospect, the first thing I want to know is, can he stand in the pocket and take the heat and not get happy feet.Does he have the ability to forget the last play and move on as if nothing bad happened. Of course, he has to have enough arm strength to make all the throws, but doesn't necessarily need an elite arm. Is he a solid leader of men. Is he mobile enough to escape pressure and still deliver???

                      If he has these characteristics and abilities, I don't worry about his college system and feel confident he will succeed. I am rarely wrong on a QB, Manziel was an exception, but I had no way of knowing the extent of his true character problems. I feel confident that both Goff and Wentz will succeed, I just think Wentz has the higher upside and I would be willing to gamble on it.

                      I don't care what shape a team is in, when you have a shot at a true franchise QB, you grab him, because you never know when the next opportunity will come. Jacksonville and Tennessee are prime examples of teams that lacked much talent but drafted possible franchise QB's anyways and then built around them. I think both their QB's have bright futures.
                      Last edited by Iamcanadian; 04-25-2016, 02:35 AM.
                      And proud of it!!!

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Iamcanadian View Post
                        When I look at a QB prospect, the first thing I want to know is, can he stand in the pocket and take the heat and not get happy feet.Does he have the ability to forget the last play and move on as if nothing bad happened. Of course, he has to have enough arm strength to make all the throws, but doesn't necessarily need an elite arm. Is he a solid leader of men. Is he mobile enough to escape pressure and still deliver???

                        If he has these characteristics and abilities, I don't worry about his college system and feel confident he will succeed. I am rarely wrong on a QB, Manziel was an exception, but I had no way of knowing the extent of his true character problems. I feel confident that both Goff and Wentz will succeed, I just think Wentz has the higher upside and I would be willing to gamble on it.

                        I don't care what shape a team is in, when you have a shot at a true franchise QB, you grab him, because you never know when the next opportunity will come. Jacksonville and Tennessee are prime examples of teams that lacked much talent but drafted possible franchise QB's anyways and then built around them. I think both their QB's have bright futures.
                        You pose an excellent point - and one many teams and experts agree with. If you dont have a franchise QB you go and get one. Now, that doesnt always mean with the #1 overall pick, but you need to invest in the position. Then when you have your guy you can build around them. That all being said, I start to see elements of "chicken or egg" emerging. If I am a team - say the 2016 Browns who have let many players go and we have very little at the skill positions (though Id admit I like pieces of their offensive line) do I draft a guy into that system to see him get abused and work through failure for a few years - or do I start to build up the talent base, get the best available talent in the draft and THEN bring a guy in. I see a number of guys who were brought into much better situations and that appears to be why they succeed and are viewed as "franchise QBs." Instead of the other way around.

                        It goes back to what I think of Goff and Wentz, they both could prove to be solid - but how differently will their careers be now that they arent going to tranwreck situations. Goff doesnt have a ton of weapons nor a great o-line, but he has Gurley and Austin along with a team whose identity is running and defense. Wentz at least appears to be going to a team where he wont be rushed to the field, will get to adjust and has a decent offensive line and some other pieces around him. Throw either one of those two with the Browns and my expectations change. Not because of who they are as players, but because of the situation and team they are playing for.

                        There are examples of each type - good player going to bad team that they built around, and then those guys who went to good teams/good situations.

                        There is no magic solution, but look at the guys who seem to succeed. Continuity with their coach/offensive coordinator/system - some time to learn/develop and then not being asked to do too much too early. Many of the top QBs now played on teams with better defenses and running games and then they slowly but surely took over as they gained more experience.

                        Lets look at the top QBs in the league right now:

                        Aaron Rodgers - Packers - 1st Round Pick #24
                        Spent 3 years behind Farve, was on a quality team.

                        Ben Roethlisberger - Steelers - 1st Round Pick #11
                        Ben actually started the season #3 on the depth chart but due to injuries was forced into action. Ben had very early success, but the team also had an established offensive line, running backs and was better known for their defense.

                        Tom Brady - Patriots - 6th Round Pick #199
                        Threw only 3 passes in his first season, was forced into action via injury to Drew Bledsoe. Played well after some initial struggles but definitely wasnt overly relied on to post gaudy numbers.

                        Andrew Luck - Colts - First Round Pick #1
                        Started from Day 1 and had success from Day 1. Though his turnovers have remained too high, Luck was viewed as a generational type talent.

                        Tony Romo - Cowboys - Undrafted 2003
                        Spent 3 years on the bench before finally moving up and playing in 2006. 2007 is when he finally took off.

                        Joe Flacco - Ravens - First Round Pick #18
                        Flacco originally was not set to start, but after injuries to Kyle Boller and Troy Smith he was forced into action and did well as the team wont 2 playoff games - though it appears that may have been in spite of his efforts as he was a game manager and looking to just not turn the ball over.

                        Phillip Rivers - Chargers - First Round Pick #4
                        Spent 2 years behind Drew Brees before starting. Noteworthy that early on the team was clearly led by Tomlinson who was already in place.

                        Russel Wilson - Seahawks - Third Round Pick #75
                        Started from Day 1 even if that wasnt originally expected after the Seahawks gave bigger money to Matt Flynn. Has posted really great numbers from his rookie year on, though he did have the aid of a solid running game and great defense.

                        Certainly it may be beneficial to go through more players, and its clear that most teams cant afford to invest a top pick in a player and let him learn more than just a few games (unless they have a legitimate veteran presence ahead of them and the team has some success) otherwise guys get forced into action with a mix of results. We usually expect struggles in year 1 with growth for years 2 and 3.

                        There is no perfect answer, but after seeing so many QBs drafted early on, forced into action on poor teams, I cant help but think that I would rather build up the team so that they wont get killed by their o-line and have weapons to make their lives easier as they adjust to the NFL game.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Iamcanadian View Post
                          When I look at a QB prospect, the first thing I want to know is, can he stand in the pocket and take the heat and not get happy feet.Does he have the ability to forget the last play and move on as if nothing bad happened. Of course, he has to have enough arm strength to make all the throws, but doesn't necessarily need an elite arm. Is he a solid leader of men. Is he mobile enough to escape pressure and still deliver???

                          If he has these characteristics and abilities, I don't worry about his college system and feel confident he will succeed. I am rarely wrong on a QB, Manziel was an exception, but I had no way of knowing the extent of his true character problems. I feel confident that both Goff and Wentz will succeed, I just think Wentz has the higher upside and I would be willing to gamble on it.

                          I don't care what shape a team is in, when you have a shot at a true franchise QB, you grab him, because you never know when the next opportunity will come. Jacksonville and Tennessee are prime examples of teams that lacked much talent but drafted possible franchise QB's anyways and then built around them. I think both their QB's have bright futures.

                          This is why you take Goff. His ability to handle pressure is special, where as statistically Wentz struggled there.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Nastradamus View Post


                            This is why you take Goff. His ability to handle pressure is special, where as statistically Wentz struggled there.

                            Agreed. Some great analysis about Goff and his ability inside the pocket. His pocket presence and ability to make the small movements and easy moves to avoid pressure is impressive. He keeps his eyes down field to make plays.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Iamcanadian View Post
                              I think that is too strong a statement. Wenyz could easily go #1 overall and the only knock on him is his competition level. His arm is 1st class, he gets high marks for his abilities and his intangibles are off the charts.

                              Give him a couple of years in the NFL and watch out.

                              Lynch has it all too except the competition level and I think he could become a decent NFL QB.
                              We will see in a few years. I think Lynch probably has the best chance to succeed out of the whole class.

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