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Why Does Quarterback Scouting Still Suck?

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  • Why Does Quarterback Scouting Still Suck?

    About 50% of first round quarterbacks wind up busting. Why hasn't the scouting process of quarterbacks improved since we have a huge sample of quarterbacks to analyze from previous drafts?

  • #2
    Originally posted by wordofi View Post
    About 50% of first round quarterbacks wind up busting. Why hasn't the scouting process of quarterbacks improved since we have a huge sample of quarterbacks to analyze from previous drafts?
    a few answers all of which present a part of the true answer.

    1 QBs panning out is not all decided pre draft, teams can screw up a player post draft pretty easily. If you want to know how to do please check how the 49ers handled Alex Smith thusfar

    2 None of the QBs in a draft were exposed to large amounts of money before the draft so they cant see how they react to it

    3 It is tough to distinguish (still) how much of a qb play is scheme and how much its qb

    4 Being a good qb is so much about chemistry its almost impossible how a group will like a new qb, check cutler trade


    Saints 2014 draft wish list:
    - No pass rusher till the fourth round (or preferably at all)
    - Corner or Wideout in the first
    - No reaching
    - No Kelvin Benjamin

    Comment


    • #3
      There's always going to be a certain percentage of players at any position that are considered "busts". It's not possible to have a league in which every player performs up to expectations based on where he was d
      rafted. There has to be winners and losers. The only way there are no losers is if every teams wins. That's not how sports works.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Halsey View Post
        There's always going to be a certain percentage of players at any position that are considered "busts". It's not possible to have a league in which every player performs up to expectations based on where he was d
        rafted. There has to be winners and losers. The only way there are no losers is if every teams wins. That's not how sports works.
        This is a good point, theres actually a larger number of great QBs in the league than there has been in a while.

        But a major thing with QBs (and all positions) is its very tough to figure out whose gonna bust their butt and put in all the work required once they get paid. QBs have to live and breath football all year around (something Jamarcus Russell never got close to).

        Theres also more variables with the position than any other, such as scheme, talent around them, etc.

        Comment


        • #5
          I don't think it sucks. I think some teams intentionally ignore the red flags of a QB bust because of rose colored glasses.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Shiver View Post
            I don't think it sucks. I think some teams intentionally ignore the red flags of a QB bust because of rose colored glasses.
            Nononononono. If you have a shot at a franchise quarterback, ya gotsta take it no matter what. Even if you have

            No one to throw to.

            One of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

            A veteran who wants to be the starting QB and theoretically may be good enough to do the job thus creating a controversy.

            A committee of running backs who probably wouldn't even make half the teams in the NFL as backups and aren't even as good as some of the low cost free agent options out there.

            A revolving door of coaching staff including someone who's last job was selling women's shoes.

            it doesn't matter. You gotta take that franchise signal caller and throw him to the wolves as soon as you possibly can.
            Disclaimer: The preceding was not a description of any one team, but rather a combination of bad situation rookie QB's have been thrown into. And Al Bundy.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Shiver View Post
              I don't think it sucks. I think some teams intentionally ignore the red flags of a QB bust because of rose colored glasses.
              It doesn't help that every single college staff, when asked if their quarterback is the kind of kid who can handle the NFL, will answer "yes". It's in their best interest because the more high draft picks they have the better their recruiting pitch, but it keep a lot of teams from getting accurate profiles of these kids.

              Comment


              • #8
                Biggest red-flags:

                Juniors/RS Sophomores - There is too much projection and not enough game-tape to form an accurate analysis. NFL scouts are good, very good. If you give them at least three years to work with they will figure out if you can play or not.

                Examples: Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Akili Smith, the list goes on and on

                Gimmicky offense - If you play in a spread, where the coaches do all the reading of the defense for you, the transition to the NFL will be rough. Usually these guys never figure it out. The ones that do figure it out generally were given some time with a clipboard to learn the NFL game from practice/preseason.

                Examples: Alex Smith, Tim Couch

                Maturity issues - This one is hard to quantify. Because you really never know. That said, look at Jamarcus Russell. Obviously the red-flags were there for all to see, but the Raiders chose to ignore those concerns and it killed them.

                Examples: Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell

                Talented Supporting Cast/Average Tools - Playing through adversity is a key test of whether a QB can make the jump. It isn't a requirement, but it helps to know that a guy can take a hit and still deliver a pass downfield. We've seen lots of highly touted Quarterbacks who didn't have the toughness to make throws down-field. They became gun-shy. These guys were buoyed by great supporting casts and weak competition. This kept them clean and safe in the pocket. That isn't the NFL, period.

                Examples: Matt Leinart, Joey Harrington, David Carr, Brady Quinn

                These are the things I look for as a warning flag: that is why I don't like Bradford, but liked Ryan. Why I didn't like Quinn, even compared to Russell. And why I had Leinart and Young behind Cutler in '06.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I think a lot of it has to do with the team and coaching staff.

                  If given the right environment I think a lot of the better teams can turn an average qb into an allpro.

                  Like I don't think it's a guarantee that Peyton Manning could have brought the Browns or Raiders to multiple championships.

                  I could be wrong though, I mean Tavaris Jackson still sucks.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I think the biggest aspect is the team and environment the player goes to. If I had an expansion team, the last thing I'd do is draft a QB #1. It's just dumb. As an expansion team, you just cannot provide an environment that you need for a young QB.

                    Most successful young QBs go into environments that are stable and where the coaching staff is pretty static, especially the QB coach and the assistants you never hear about.

                    If you don't have an OL you trust, 2 good receiving options, and a running game...don't draft a QB in the first round. It's a waste. Bring in a vet who can take a pounding and draft a QB you can slow cook without any pressure in the later rounds.

                    You can look at the recent busts and they all have a coaching staff or environment excuse that doesn't have much to do with them as players.
                    David Carr - crappy OL, no weapons, no run game, horrible offensive coaches

                    Joey Harrington - seemed like Detroit drafted him because there was no one else to draft in a crappy draft class. Poor OL, few targets, coaching situation in flux, and competition from another young QB. Never had the full backing from staff.

                    Brady Quinn - coaching staff constantly changing, QB controversy right off the bat (should have just given him the ball from day 1), bad organization Never had the full backing from staff.

                    JaMarcus Russell - coaching staff never wanted him to begin with so they didn't go the extra mile to help Russell become an NFL QB. Never had the full backing from staff.

                    Kyle Boller - poor QB development then was forced into action way too early by a coach who was about to lose his job.

                    Alex Smith (turning it around now) - 5 different OCs in 5 years, HC on his way out alienating him and trying to use Smith as a scape goat to save his own job. Never had the full backing from staff.

                    Tim Couch - horrible coaching staff, no OL, no receivers, QB controversy created by a horrid coach trying to save his job. Never had the full backing from staff.

                    Matt Leinart - never had the support of his coaching staff, horrid OL, coaching staff constantly undermining him (Warner, Anderson).

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I've always felt that the biggest deciding factor in what makes a player succeed or be a bust is how they handle becoming instant millionairs. This goes for all positions, not just QB's.

                      Speaking in terms of quarterbacks, I think it's harder than ever to scout QB's because there are just so few true pro style offenses out there.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I am a firm believe in the theory that "Situation" is responsible for the majority of first round quarterback busts. There are exceptions but by and large all of the guys taken that early are talented and it's the teams that ruin them. Failure to protect or surround with talent, poor support system, coaching changes, lack of patience, etc.
                        Scott Wright, President
                        Draft Countdown.com
                        www.draftcountdown.com

                        Twitter: twitter.com/DraftCountdown

                        Draft Countdown Podcast, Every Tuesday at 8 PM EST
                        www.blogtalkradio.com/draftcountdown and on iTunes

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Scott Wright View Post
                          I am a firm believe in the theory that "Situation" is responsible for the majority of first round quarterback busts. There are exceptions but by and large all of the guys taken that early are talented and it's the teams that ruin them. Failure to protect or surround with talent, poor support system, coaching changes, lack of patience, etc.
                          Yet you killed the Browns for passing on Sanchez to improve their supporting cast, which would have been a horrendous situation.

                          He's struggling in a good situation.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Scott Wright View Post
                            I am a firm believe in the theory that "Situation" is responsible for the majority of first round quarterback busts. There are exceptions but by and large all of the guys taken that early are talented and it's the teams that ruin them. Failure to protect or surround with talent, poor support system, coaching changes, lack of patience, etc.
                            I think it takes a certain personality to play quarterback successfully in the NFL, and not all quarterbacks can handle the mental load. You have to be able to take command in the huddle and lead the offense while still carrying the most responsibility of any player post-snap. You've also got to be able to deal with the added scrutiny of playing the most glamorous position, while facing defenders whose sole job is to destroy you. Staying calm and collected at the end of a tight game is obviously paramount as well.
                            "Compadres, it is imperative that we crush the freedom fighters before the start of the rainy season. And remember, a shiny new donkey for whomever brings me the head of Colonel Montoya."

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by wonderbredd24 View Post
                              Yet you killed the Browns for passing on Sanchez to improve their supporting cast, which would have been a horrendous situation.

                              He's struggling in a good situation.
                              They Browns should have taken Sanchez and let him sit until they had a better supporting cast.

                              The most important thing is getting the franchise signal caller in the fold.

                              Cleveland's rebuilding project hasn't even begun yet. The clock starts ticking when they get a top young quarterback. They won't be a playoff contender for a minimum of three more years.
                              Scott Wright, President
                              Draft Countdown.com
                              www.draftcountdown.com

                              Twitter: twitter.com/DraftCountdown

                              Draft Countdown Podcast, Every Tuesday at 8 PM EST
                              www.blogtalkradio.com/draftcountdown and on iTunes

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