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Who should be Number 2?

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  • #76
    Originally posted by keylime_5 View Post
    of course it was his "average" but that one 30 yard run skews it a bit. He was doing badly in that game outside of one good run. 4.7 isn't great in college football anyway, it's decent but it's not outstanding, especially considering one run bumped it up a whole lot.
    Chris Johnson had a 5.6 ypc last season. But if I were to follow your logic CJ is a terrible player because I have to disregard every big run he makes? Come on...
    Last edited by Razor; 10-05-2010, 11:12 AM.

    Originally posted by ElectricEye
    I'm a whiny little kunt. Feel sorry for me as I go masturbate to a picture of my mom dressed as a teletubby.

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    • #77
      The lack of basic statistical understanding when it comes to sports and fans is pretty entertaining sometimes. (not just here, in general)

      Yes, James averaged 4.7 ypc against OSU, but just because it's called "Average Yards per Carry" doesn't mean it's automatically representative of performance, or even average performance. If you have 14 similar outputs, and one ridiculously high/low output, the one that is not like the others is a statistical outlier. Does it count? Absolutely, why shouldn't it? But it skews perceptions on the data set as a whole. To say James averaged 4.7 ypc would indeed be correct, but if you wanted to represent his true performance based on a statistical average, you would have to go more indepth into statistical formulas that weighs each out put separately and accounts for outliers, rather than saying each of the 15 runs were equal.

      I suck at stats, so I have no idea how to do that.

      Other than that, James is pretty ridiculous and electrifying, but to say James >>>> OSU because he averaged 4.7 ypc is dumb. I mean, even without all the boring stuff I just wrote about, 4.7 ypc in college for one game is not great, and actually pretty average.

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      • #78
        Originally posted by iowatreat54 View Post
        The lack of basic statistical understanding when it comes to sports and fans is pretty entertaining sometimes. (not just here, in general)

        Yes, James averaged 4.7 ypc against OSU, but just because it's called "Average Yards per Carry" doesn't mean it's automatically representative of performance, or even average performance. If you have 14 similar outputs, and one ridiculously high/low output, the one that is not like the others is a statistical outlier. Does it count? Absolutely, why shouldn't it? But it skews perceptions on the data set as a whole. To say James averaged 4.7 ypc would indeed be correct, but if you wanted to represent his true performance based on a statistical average, you would have to go more indepth into statistical formulas that weighs each out put separately and accounts for outliers, rather than saying each of the 15 runs were equal.

        I suck at stats, so I have no idea how to do that.
        You can't put weights on statistical outliers, at least not something I've ever done in my work with statistics. Basically, iirc, you can't really account for outliers without creating a bias but perhaps somebody else knows something about this. I agree that a 30 yard run is an outlier, but in football you can't really say that it's an anomaly. To go back to the CJ example, one would have to account for all of his 22 runs of 20+ yards and his 7 runs of 40+ yards last year to determine if he had a great season? No. And 4.7 ypc is pretty good against a big, strong OSU DL. And his 6.9 ypc for the season is everything but average, so I stand by my initial statement. And Oregon should be ranked #2.

        Edit:

        Originally posted by iowatreat54 View Post
        Other than that, James is pretty ridiculous and electrifying, but to say James >>>> OSU because he averaged 4.7 ypc is dumb. I mean, even without all the boring stuff I just wrote about, 4.7 ypc in college for one game is not great, and actually pretty average.
        And if you go back and look at my initial post you'll find that I didn't reference the OSU game, another poster did. I meant this year. But if it makes you feel better about your sorry existence to call somebody you don't know dumb then go ahead...
        Last edited by Razor; 10-05-2010, 11:38 AM.

        Originally posted by ElectricEye
        I'm a whiny little kunt. Feel sorry for me as I go masturbate to a picture of my mom dressed as a teletubby.

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        • #79
          Oregon has given up like 1000+ yards and 62 points the last two weeks and they should move up in the rankings? If they play a team with a front seven like Alabama's or Ohio State's they won't put up those gaudy offensive stats. I just don't follow the logic and they won't and shouldn't get in the NC game over OSU if both go undefeated I am certain of that.

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          • #80
            Originally posted by Razor View Post
            You can't put weights on statistical outliers, at least not something I've ever done in my work with statistics. Basically, iirc, you can't really account for outliers without creating a bias but perhaps somebody else knows something about this. I agree that a 30 yard run is an outlier, but in football you can't really say that it's an anomaly. To go back to the CJ example, one would have to account for all of his 22 runs of 20+ yards and his 7 runs of 40+ yards last year to determine if he had a great season? No. And 4.7 ypc is pretty good against a big, strong OSU DL. And his 6.9 ypc for the season is everything but average, so I stand by my initial statement. And Oregon should be ranked #2.

            Edit:


            And if you go back and look at my initial post you'll find that I didn't reference the OSU game, another poster did. I meant this year. But if it makes you feel better about your sorry existence to call somebody you don't know dumb then go ahead...
            First and foremost, your original post referencing James compared to OSU was:



            That's it. There is no explaination or note that you indeed meant for this season only. Furthermore, if you want to compare James to OSU's defense, the most logical comparison would be from their only meeting. If you want to say this year only, then that obviously doesn't work, but then your argument is entirely baseless and opinionated, and thus not a good argument at all.

            Additionally, I never called you dumb, so get don't get your panties in a bunch. I said that saying James >>>> OSU is dumb, because it is. It's a dumb statement and argument based on little to no substance, and what little substance there is would actually show James is slightly above average at best compared to OSU's D.

            Second, I understand that you can't overanalyze a players every single play in order to show the type of player he is. It would be tedious, and not the best indicator of him overall. However, for a one game basis, it is entirely acceptable to analyze performance based on each play, especially when it's something like carries which is usually around 20 per game. That's not a lot. Further, I didn't say it was the best way to do it, only that it would be more accurate than using simple averages to determine a single perceived performance. Using simple averages is good when you have a large sample size because it tends to follow a norm, but for a single game you can't assume it is the norm.

            Finally, I said 4.7 ypc is pretty average for a normal game at RB. It obviously becomes more impressive depending on the strength of the opponent (OSU for example), however, 4.7 ypc even vs. OSU is still good, not great, as was contested in this thread. I believe someone said James faired pretty well against OSU with a 4.7 ypc, which is true, but it's not like he had a great game.

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            • #81
              Originally posted by iowatreat54 View Post
              First and foremost, your original post referencing James compared to OSU was:



              That's it. There is no explaination or note that you indeed meant for this season only. Furthermore, if you want to compare James to OSU's defense, the most logical comparison would be from their only meeting. If you want to say this year only, then that obviously doesn't work, but then your argument is entirely baseless and opinionated, and thus not a good argument at all.

              Additionally, I never called you dumb, so get don't get your panties in a bunch. I said that saying James >>>> OSU is dumb, because it is. It's a dumb statement and argument based on little to no substance, and what little substance there is would actually show James is slightly above average at best compared to OSU's D.

              Second, I understand that you can't overanalyze a players every single play in order to show the type of player he is. It would be tedious, and not the best indicator of him overall. However, for a one game basis, it is entirely acceptable to analyze performance based on each play, especially when it's something like carries which is usually around 20 per game. That's not a lot. Further, I didn't say it was the best way to do it, only that it would be more accurate than using simple averages to determine a single perceived performance. Using simple averages is good when you have a large sample size because it tends to follow a norm, but for a single game you can't assume it is the norm.

              Finally, I said 4.7 ypc is pretty average for a normal game at RB. It obviously becomes more impressive depending on the strength of the opponent (OSU for example), however, 4.7 ypc even vs. OSU is still good, not great, as was contested in this thread. I believe someone said James faired pretty well against OSU with a 4.7 ypc, which is true, but it's not like he had a great game.
              All well put. There are many ways to measure impact. Statistics can be manipulated many different ways. For example, one could try and measure how many first downs he picked up in short yardage situations. How often did he get stuffed? Etc...

              The fact is, he is a great running back, and he is exciting to watch. I just took umbrage with Razor's post that he is uber-greater than OSU. The only recent measuring point is a game that occurred 6 games ago, with teams that haven't had a lot of turnover.

              A game which OSU's D dominated. A game in which OSU's offense stayed on the field for 40+ minutes. Boring ball control offense and stiffling defense. The kind of offense where Tressel settles for 3 instead of going balls out to get 7 (I don't like it, as it's lost more games than it should have by keeping games close and putting way too much pressure on the D).


              Look at the drive chart. That's ownage.

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              • #82
                Originally posted by JoeJoeBrown View Post
                All well put. There are many ways to measure impact. Statistics can be manipulated many different ways. For example, one could try and measure how many first downs he picked up in short yardage situations. How often did he get stuffed? Etc...

                The fact is, he is a great running back, and he is exciting to watch. I just took umbrage with Razor's post that he is uber-greater than OSU. The only recent measuring point is a game that occurred 6 games ago, with teams that haven't had a lot of turnover.

                A game which OSU's D dominated. A game in which OSU's offense stayed on the field for 40+ minutes. Boring ball control offense and stiffling defense. The kind of offense where Tressel settles for 3 instead of going balls out to get 7 (I don't like it, as it's lost more games than it should have by keeping games close and putting way too much pressure on the D).


                Look at the drive chart. That's ownage.
                This was mainly my point. I didn't mean to offend Razor or anyone, I just meant to point out that it was a dumb argument to say James was so much better than OSU, whether it was based on overall, one game, or this year. It's just a dumb argument.

                Also that using ypc isn't the end all be all of evaluating performance, or even that indicative when looking at a small sample size such as one game or 15 carries. A simple average such as ypc can be easily construed if there is a low number of examples because outliers have such a high impact on the outcome. That is why you need to account for them in small sample sizes, and not lump them in as equal to all others.

                And again, I think James is a great college RB and is extremely exciting, but he had a decent game at best vs. OSU (in terms of running games vs. OSU's D), and was actually pretty much shut down save for one fluke run. And yes, it was a fluke in relation to his overall game that day.
                Last edited by iowatreat54; 10-05-2010, 12:34 PM.

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                • #83
                  Looking at Lamichael James' game against OSU and Chris Johnson's 2000 yard season ARE NOT THE SAME THING.

                  When you're looking at one game where he had one semi-long run that is a major outlier from everything else, you get the best indication of his actual effectiveness.
                  When you look at a whole season, where CJ proved time and time again he could break long runs, it makes no sense to discount all of his long runs. No one has ever suggested that. It's a case of MULTIPLE long runs vs. ONE SINGLE CARRY of 30 yards.


                  Originally posted by Scott Wright
                  Terrellezzzzzzzz Pryorzzzzzzzz!
                  Originally posted by njx9
                  do i tell you when to flip the burger?

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                  • #84
                    Thank you Christopher for basically saying what I wanted to say without sounding as dumb or confusing as I did. You are an inspiration.

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                    • #85
                      NO Boise option? I'm gone


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                      • #86
                        Yeah but last year James was known to break a huge run in every single game he played in. His long runs per game were 17, 27, 45, 36, 26, 49, 56, 33, 60, 51, 22, and 52. Obviously like Johnson breaking a long run during the course of a game is part of James' track record.
                        #Chop


                        sig by BoneKrusher

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                        • #87
                          Originally posted by YAYareaRB View Post
                          NO Boise option? I'm gone
                          You people are out of your minds if you think Boise State would get in before an undefeated Ohio State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arizona, or ANY undefeated team from the SEC.
                          Last edited by bearsfan_51; 10-05-2010, 01:56 PM.


                          Nobody cares about your stupid fantasy team.

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                          • #88
                            Originally posted by Giantsfan1080 View Post
                            Yeah but last year James was known to break a huge run in every single game he played in. His long runs per game were 17, 27, 45, 36, 26, 49, 56, 33, 60, 51, 22, and 52. Obviously like Johnson breaking a long run during the course of a game is part of James' track record.
                            Again, 70 yards against the Buckeyes. 42% of which were on one single run.

                            That's a pretty mediocre game. He did not come close to owning the Buckeyes as Razor asserted.

                            That's all that everyone (and it looks like people who don't like the Bucks are included in this) is trying to explain.

                            Personally, I would love to have him start for OSU, but the statement was ridiculous.

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                            • #89
                              pretty close voting

                              gonna give it to oregon though

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                              • #90
                                Originally posted by superman View Post
                                pretty close voting

                                gonna give it to oregon though
                                awesome sig.

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