Predicting the BCS Bowls

[Shane P. Hallam]

I'm always intrigued by the BCS Bowl selection process, since it is similar to a draft. A lot goes in on deciding who is in or out, but I will be taking my guesses week to week.



This year, the selection is as follows:

Which Bowl loses #1 team (if applicable)

Which Bowl loses #2 team (if applicable)

Sugar Bowl

Orange Bowl

Fiesta Bowl



If this happens as it stands, my guess is this:

National Championship: #1 Oregon vs. #2 Auburn

The following problem is that there are 5 teams for 4 spots. TCU, Boise, Ohio State, LSU, and Stanford. BCS Bowls can select whoever they want in the Top 14 of the BCS Standings.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Boise State (Selection #1)

Sugar Bowl: LSU (Selection #2) vs. Ohio State (Selection #3)

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska (AQ as Big 12 winner) vs. Pitt (AQ as Big East Winner, selection #5)

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (AQ as ACC Winner) vs. TCU (Selection #4)



Here is where my questions come in:

1. Does the Rose Bowl want to keep Big Ten vs. Pac-10? If so, they can take Stanford. This would bump off Boise/TCU or Ohio State from the BCS however.

2. Does the Sugar Bowl take the more appealing name match-up with Ohio State vs. SEC or take Boise to face LSU?

3. How much appeal does TCU and Boise have? The fact is, not much as evidenced by TV Ratings. It would be tough to justify not putting one in a BCS Bowl (and both will likely make them,) but Boise could be the 2nd to last team selected because of it.

[P-L]

The Rose Bowl has to take a non-BCS team if either the Pac-10 or Big Ten champion makes the National Championship game. If Oregon finishes undefeated, they can't take Stanford.

[Shane P. Hallam]

The Rose Bowl has to take a non-BCS team if either the Pac-10 or Big Ten champion makes the National Championship game. If Oregon finishes undefeated, they can't take Stanford.

Are you sure that is true? With four at-large bids, only one non-BCS team is guaranteed a spot.

"3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria."


The Rose Bowl could take Stanford if Oregon makes it. All that matters is that TCU or Boise (whoever ends higher in the rankings,) is guaranteed a spot. So is Pitt. Therefore, the other 3 are up to the individual Bowls between the Top 15 teams in the BCS standings.

They could be Stanford, LSU, Ohio State

They could be Boise/TCU, LSU, Ohio State

Up to the Bowls.

[iowatreat54]

The Rose Bowl has to take a non-BCS team if either the Pac-10 or Big Ten champion makes the National Championship game. If Oregon finishes undefeated, they can't take Stanford.

This is actually a common misconception.

If the Pac 10 or Big Ten winner make the NC game, the Rose bowl has to take a non-AQ team if they qualify once in the next 4 years. They do not necessarily need to take Boise/TCU if it happens this year, but it would probably be in their best interest to get it out of the way early.

Also, if Boise or TCU make the NC game vs. say Oregon, the Rose Bowl does not need to take the other non-AQ to replace them since one already is in the NC game.

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/...ection-process

[diabsoule]

National Championship: #1 Oregon vs. #2 Auburn
- It's hard not to predict this right now, however, both teams have a couple of tests left.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. TCU (non-AQ)
- The Rose Bowl is faced with a tough choice on whether to invite TCU, Boise State, or local team and Pac-10 affiliate Stanford. Depending on how the rest of the season pans out Boise St. could very well jump TCU in the standings making them the more appealing invite. Right now, though, I have TCU penciled in.

Sugar Bowl: LSU (at large) vs. Boise State (at large)
- The Sugar Bowl could go with a familiar match up and invite Ohio State, however, Boise State would present an intriguing matchup. SEC powerhouse LSU, led by the mad hatter and gambler extraordinaire Les Miles, would go against the unpredictable Chris Peterson and giant killer Boise.

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska (AQ as Big 12 winner) vs. Pitt (AQ as Big East Winner, selection #5)
- It's a damn shame that the Big East has to have a BCS invite.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (AQ as ACC Winner) vs. Ohio State (at large)
- An interested match and one that would be great to see as two great coaches face off.

[andyjo672]

National Championship: #1 Oregon vs. #2 Auburn
- It's hard not to predict this right now, however, both teams have a couple of tests left.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. TCU (non-AQ)
- The Rose Bowl is faced with a tough choice on whether to invite TCU, Boise State, or local team and Pac-10 affiliate Stanford. Depending on how the rest of the season pans out Boise St. could very well jump TCU in the standings making them the more appealing invite. Right now, though, I have TCU penciled in.

Sugar Bowl: LSU (at large) vs. Boise State (at large)
- The Sugar Bowl could go with a familiar match up and invite Ohio State, however, Boise State would present an intriguing matchup. SEC powerhouse LSU, led by the mad hatter and gambler extraordinaire Les Miles, would go against the unpredictable Chris Peterson and giant killer Boise.

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska (AQ as Big 12 winner) vs. Pitt (AQ as Big East Winner, selection #5)
- It's a damn shame that the Big East has to have a BCS invite.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (AQ as ACC Winner) vs. Ohio State (at large)
- An interested match and one that would be great to see as two great coaches face off.

If Oregon makes the title game, then the Rose Bowl must select the highest ranked non-AQ team. This is the first year of that rule, therefore Stanford would have no chance.

[Shane P. Hallam]

Either way, I think the Rose Bowl would opt for Boise (probably over TCU even as Boise is the "bigger name,") over Stanford.


I also don't imagine the Sugar Bowl would pass up on Ohio State and get the cash cow there for their game.

[diabsoule]

Either way, I think the Rose Bowl would opt for Boise (probably over TCU even as Boise is the "bigger name,") over Stanford.


I also don't imagine the Sugar Bowl would pass up on Ohio State and get the cash cow there for their game.

I don't think they will either but as an LSU fan I don't want to play Ohio State and would like to see someone new. Hell, I'd like for an SEC school to go to another BCS bowl outside of the Sugar.

[iowatreat54]

If Oregon makes the title game, then the Rose Bowl must select the highest ranked non-AQ team. This is the first year of that rule, therefore Stanford would have no chance.

Again, as I said previously, this is wrong.

But the Rose Bowl probably would select a non-AQ team just to get it over with. And my guess as well would be Boise over TCU regardless of which is ranked higher.

[SickwithIt1010]

Again, as I said previously, this is wrong.

But the Rose Bowl probably would select a non-AQ team just to get it over with. And my guess as well would be Boise over TCU regardless of which is ranked higher.

I dont think it is a written rule that they HAVE to take the non-aq school, but i have heard and read that the rose bowl committee has stated they will take the highest non-aq if Oregon does play for the NC.

Ill find the link for you guys.

[iowatreat54]

I dont think it is a written rule that they HAVE to take the non-aq school, but i have heard and read that the rose bowl committee has stated they will take the highest non-aq if Oregon does play for the NC.

Ill find the link for you guys.

I would assume the Rose Bowl would want to take a non-AQ school this year to get it over with, and while they actually have good teams to choose from to still preserve ratings.

But the point is, the Rose Bowl has absolutely no requirement to take a non-AQ team this year. They are required to take one once in the next 4 years if a Pac 10 or Big 10 team is selected for the NC game and if a non-AQ team qualifies.

[dannyz]

Why do we have to go against the winner of the Big East? Why can't we go against like Ohio State or Wisconsin?

[GB12]

I would assume the Rose Bowl would want to take a non-AQ school this year to get it over with, and while they actually have good teams to choose from to still preserve ratings.

But the point is, the Rose Bowl has absolutely no requirement to take a non-AQ team this year. They are required to take one once in the next 4 years if a Pac 10 or Big 10 team is selected for the NC game and if a non-AQ team qualifies.

So what if they wait until the 4th year and no one qualifies? I think they have to take one the first year one qualifies.

[iowatreat54]

So what if they wait until the 4th year and no one qualifies? I think they have to take one the first year one qualifies.

I was going to raise the same issue. But they are not required to take one the first year. From all accounts that have been reported to the general public, they have an agreement that they need to take one once in the next 4 years in that situation. As far as we know, there is no requirement for them to take one the first year other than that it would be one of the four years under this agreement.

[Shane P. Hallam]

Why do we have to go against the winner of the Big East? Why can't we go against like Ohio State or Wisconsin?

Because the Fiesta Bowl picks last in the selection. Inevitably, no team will want the Big East winner, so the Big 12 winner is stuck with them.