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A Word on 5 Stars

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  • A Word on 5 Stars

    Everyone wants the 5 stars at recruiting time. Everyone thinks about how great they'll be, and how much they'll help your team. But how much do 5 stars really help? How great or even good are they? I looked back at the last 2 drafts(It was difficult to find guys high scool rankings any farther back, for me at least) and looked at each player drafted in the first round's star ranking and position ranking(if something isn't included for a player, I couldn't find it.Also, most of these guys were recruited between 2002 and 2004):

    2007 Draft
    1.JaMarcus Russell-4 star #6 pro style QB
    2.Calvin Johnson-4 star #6 WR
    3.Joe Thomas-4 star #18 OT
    4.Gaines Adams-3 star ?
    5.Levi Brown-4 star #32 DT
    6.LaRon Landry-4 star #5 ATH
    7.Adrian Peterson-5 star #1 RB
    8.Jamaal Anderson-2 star WR
    9.Ted Ginn-5 star #1 CB
    10.Amobi Okoye-2 star OG
    11.Patrick Willis-3 star #60 ILB(no that's not a misprint)
    12.Marshawn Lynch-4 star #2 RB
    13.Adam Carriker-3 star #46 SDE
    14.Darrelle Revis-3 star #46 CB
    15.Lawrence Timmons-4 star #5 OLB
    16.Justin Harrell-4 star #36 DT
    17.Jarvis Moss-5 star #1 WDE
    18.Leon Hall-4 star #10 CB
    19.Michael Griffin-4 star #9 CB
    20.Aaron Ross-4 star CB
    21.Reggie Nelson-4 star #4 S
    22.Brady Quinn-4 star #10 Pro Style QB
    23.Dwayne Bowe-4 star #21 WR
    24.Brandon Meriweather-3 star #16 S
    25.Jon Beason-4 star #6 OLB
    26.Anthony Spencer-3 star #17 WDE
    27.Robert Meachem-5 star #3 WR
    28.Joe Staley-2 star TE
    29.Ben Grubbs-3 star #23 DE
    30.Craig Davis-4 star #12 WR
    31.Greg Olsen-5 star #2 TE
    32-Anthony Gonzalez-4 star #16 WR

    I this past draft there were more 3 stars drafted in the first than 5 stars. Only 5 of the 32 picks were 5 star recruits. And lest you say "Well, everyone knew this was a weak draft" we'll go back to '06, a pretty good draft.

    2006 Draft
    1.Mario Williams-4 star ?
    2.Reggie Bush-5 star #1 RB
    3.Vince Young-5 star #1 Dual Threat QB
    4.D'Brickashaw Ferguson-3 star #29 OG
    5.AJ Hawk-3 star #30 OLB
    6.Vernon Davis-4 star #4 TE
    7.Michael Huff-?
    8.Donte Whitner-4 star #3 CB
    9.Ernie Sims-5 star #1 ILB
    10.Matt Leinart-?
    11.Jay Cutler-?
    12.Haloti Ngata-5 star #1 DT
    13.Kamerion Wimbley-4 star #4 WDE
    14.Broderick Bunkley-4 star #22 DT
    15.Tye Hill-?
    16.Jason Allen-4 star #5 ATH
    17.Chad Greenway-?
    18.Bobby Carpenter-4 star #13 OLB
    19.Antonio Cromartie-4 star #6 CB
    20.Tamba Hali-4 star #5 SDE
    21.Laurence Maroney-4 star #18 RB
    22.Manny Lawson-2 star #62 WDE
    23.Davin Joseph-4 star #6 OG
    24.Johnathan Joseph-?
    25.Santonio Holmes-3 star #38 WR
    26.John McCargo-?
    27.DeAngelo Williams-4 star #11 APB
    28.Mercedes Lewis-5 star #1 TE
    29.Nick Mangold-4 star #3 C
    30.Joseph Addai-?
    31.Kelly Jennings-?
    31.Mathias Kiwanuka-?

    While there where less 3 stars and more 4 stars, there were still only 5 5 stars(that I could find)

    So I guess my point is, every year, people either get excited about the 5 stars they got, or depressed because they didn't get any. But really, it seems like it's the 4 star type guys that overall make the biggest impact. So keep an eye on those 4 star recruits.
    Last edited by ironman4579; 07-31-2007, 07:54 PM.



    Originally posted by Jakey
    WWWWWWWWWTTTTTTTTTTTTFFFFFFFFFFF!!!

    i am literally gonna kick a baby to death!

  • #2
    Just look at Willie Williams. I'm sure U fans were pretty excited when they got his commit.


    http://minnesotasportstwentyfourseven.blogspot.com/

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Vikes99ej View Post
      Just look at Willie Williams. I'm sure U fans were pretty excited when they got his commit.
      Or Kyle Wright for that matter. He was the ONLY 5 star QB that year and the #5 player on the rivals100. Pro style QB's behind him that year were Brady Quinn, Jamarcus Russell, Andre Woodson, Chris Leak, Drew Tate, Matt Ryan, and a few others.



      Originally posted by Jakey
      WWWWWWWWWTTTTTTTTTTTTFFFFFFFFFFF!!!

      i am literally gonna kick a baby to death!

      Comment


      • #4
        what was micheal griffins? you forgot to put how many stars he was

        Sig By Diehardvikingfan

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        • #5
          Originally posted by HoopsDemon12 View Post
          what was micheal griffins? you forgot to put how many stars he was
          My bad HD. Thanks for the heads up. I fixed it up top as well, but he was a 4 star recruit.



          Originally posted by Jakey
          WWWWWWWWWTTTTTTTTTTTTFFFFFFFFFFF!!!

          i am literally gonna kick a baby to death!

          Comment


          • #6
            Wow linebackers have come from all over the place 2-5 star.... that seems to be the position with the biggest descrepency... and i cant help but laugh everytime i see jammal anderson as a 2 star receiver... if you went back in time and told people how high he would be drafted as a DE... they wouldnt belive you

            Sig By Diehardvikingfan

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            • #7
              By the wya nice list.. its appriciated when someone takes time to make a list like this

              Sig By Diehardvikingfan

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              • #8
                Also, look at the recently released Darnell Bing. He was highly sought after in high school.


                http://minnesotasportstwentyfourseven.blogspot.com/

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                • #9
                  One of the things I find interesting is that basically none of the first round OT over the last couple years were rated highly within the OT position, if they were rated in that position at all. Even this coming season, Jake Long and Sam Baker were not ranked highly at all, with Long being a 4 star and rated the #21 OT, and Baker even lower I believe(I'd check but Rivals is screwed up for me at the moment)



                  Originally posted by Jakey
                  WWWWWWWWWTTTTTTTTTTTTFFFFFFFFFFF!!!

                  i am literally gonna kick a baby to death!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ironman4579 View Post
                    One of the things I find interesting is that basically none of the first round OT over the last couple years were rated highly within the OT position, if they were rated in that position at all. Even this coming season, Jake Long and Sam Baker were not ranked highly at all, with Long being a 4 star and rated the #21 OT, and Baker even lower I believe(I'd check but Rivals is screwed up for me at the moment)
                    well the way i look at it.. they are still kids... they are still growing into their bodies and strength and athletic abilities... you cant judge until realistically they are like 20

                    Sig By Diehardvikingfan

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by HoopsDemon12 View Post
                      By the wya nice list.. its appriciated when someone takes time to make a list like this
                      Thanks. Basically I just wanted to show that everyone wants, or is happy to get, or upset to miss, a guy like Shane Hayle, but you might end up being just as happy in the long run with a guy like Jon Major or Etienne Sabino.



                      Originally posted by Jakey
                      WWWWWWWWWTTTTTTTTTTTTFFFFFFFFFFF!!!

                      i am literally gonna kick a baby to death!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by HoopsDemon12 View Post
                        well the way i look at it.. they are still kids... they are still growing into their bodies and strength and athletic abilities... you cant judge until realistically they are like 20
                        I fully agree with you there.



                        Originally posted by Jakey
                        WWWWWWWWWTTTTTTTTTTTTFFFFFFFFFFF!!!

                        i am literally gonna kick a baby to death!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ironman4579 View Post
                          Thanks. Basically I just wanted to show that everyone wants, or is happy to get, or upset to miss, a guy like Shane Hayle, but you might end up being just as happy in the long run with a guy like Jon Major or Etienne Sabino.
                          unless they are USC... cause you go there... your basically a man already.. its an assembly line

                          Sig By Diehardvikingfan

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                          • #14
                            I just looked it up again. Sam Baker was a 4 star and the #4 OG at the time. So at least he was kind of high in the OG rankings.



                            Originally posted by Jakey
                            WWWWWWWWWTTTTTTTTTTTTFFFFFFFFFFF!!!

                            i am literally gonna kick a baby to death!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              5-stars was an honor only bestowed upon 25 players each in '03 and '04. So it wasn't even possible for the entire first round to be comprised of five star players, hypothetically. In '07, 20 percent of the 5-star players went in the 1st round. In '06, you have 22 documented, and 5-stars made up 5 of those 22. So that projects to 29 percent of the 5-stars eligible for that class, going in the first round (without knowing the rankings of the rest). All of the Rivals250 is 4-stars or better. And I know players beyond that get 4-stars as well. Let's say 300 more (I don't know the exact number). That would mean that there are 12 times more of an opportunity to be a first rounder than for 5-stars. 17 of the 300 4-star players, went in the first round, or 5-6 percent. For '06, it would be 6 percent too. For 3-star players, how many are there? I know there's a lot. Let's say around 700. That would mean that 7 of 700, or 1 percent, made the first round in '07. 3 of 700 in '06, which projects to .6percent when extrapolated for 32 players. So you have a 20-29 percent chance to be a 1st rounder if you're 5 stars....5-6 percent chance if you're a 4-star.....and .6-1 percent chance if you're a 3-star. The probabilities dramatically favor the higher rated player.

                              If you get a 5-star player, your probabilities increase tremendously that you're going to get a stud. Same with 4-star. And on down. The problem I have is when an individual player is dismissed simply for not being 5-stars. Clearly, they can be elite players, because some are 1st rounders. Others are 2nd rounders, and that means they would hypothetically be the best player on almost half the D-1 teams. I can't imagine Jack Ikegwuonu going outside the 1st round next year as a Badger fan, and he was a 1-star player. So the emphasis might be too great on stars in some places. And there have been a lot of politics at scout for example the last couple years because they dismissed their midwest recruiting analyst, and since the perception is that midwestern players and players who commit to some midwestern schools are worse (and they magically drop stars after committing). So let's analyze each player individually when we can, but stars aren't a bad indicator of probability, unless a compelling defense proves otherwise.

                              Thanks for the research.
                              Last edited by BerninWI; 07-31-2007, 09:01 PM.

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