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Monday First Round Scenario Update

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  • Monday First Round Scenario Update

    Quick 1-round scenario update. Started making adjustments this weekend. Likely will extend or adjust this as soon as some situations clear itself up.

    1. Oakland Raiders

    CJ or JR? Gut still says

    Oakland Raiders pick: QB Jamarcus Russell, LSU

    Personal comment:

    I still think JR is the better of two good moves for the franchise. Some comments included under Cleveland’s pick.

    2. Detroit Lions

    I think it’s growing more and more possible that Detroit jumps on Calvin here and sees how the board plays out. Detroit would love to trade down. Betting money is still a trade getting done.

    Projected Trade:

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers get the 2nd overall
    Detroit Lions get the 4th and 35th overall, plus a 2008 2nd rounder

    It very well could be the 4th/35th/68th, but I could see the two sides agreeing to this. Tampa Bay nabs

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick: WR Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech

    Personal comment:

    Dropping to 4 and getting assets is a good deal for Millen, as they can still get someone they like at 4. For Tampa, if they can keep 3 day 1 picks this year, that makes this deal much more palatable, and they do need Johnson.

    3. Cleveland Browns

    I still think Savage’s personal preference is Russell, Peterson at the top. So what’s the call? The nod goes to …

    Cleveland Browns pick: RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma

    Personal comment:

    Tough call on Peterson/Quinn. Look for Cleveland to still address QB early if they pass here. The Raiders additional comment is that, there seems to be some stronger than expected rumors floating around that Savage may try to package up for the 1st overall and grab the top QB prospect in Russell. I don’t see it happening, but that’d be the Raiders ideal scenario, staying in the top 3, still getting a QB, and picking up additional assets. As for the pick itself, it works. It’s a short term boost, and with Jamal there, Adrian’s career might be extended somewhat. Big durability concerns here, though, as a result of his running style, but not sure Savage/Crennel are thinking 4 years down the line.

    4. Detroit Lions f/ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Sometimes, love is at first sight …

    Detroit Lions pick: OT Joe Thomas, Wisconsin

    Personal comment:

    I know, a lot of talk on Gaines Adams. But a lot of growing speculation that they may still nab Joe Thomas and address end in round 2 with their additional pick. If they intend to use the extra 2nd on a DE, then I say great.

    5. Arizona Cardinals

    Which side of the ball? Nod goes to …

    Arizona Cardinals pick: DE Gaines Adams, Clemson

    Personal comment:

    There may be some deal options, but the trade chip cost (and not the contract cost) may end up being the big deterrent. They like Levi Brown and could make this the first surprise, but as of now, the nod goes to Gaines Adams and hoping to find a OL talent later for Grimm to coach up.

    6. Washington Redskins

    The big surprise will be if Washington stays here. A month has changed a lot, and this is no longer no-man’s land. Washington should get offers. I don’t expect Lance Briggs or Asante Samuel to happen as of now, but I could see

    Proposed Trade:

    Miami gets the 6th overall
    Washington gets the 9th and 71st overall

    Miami, at 9, is sitting somewhat in no-man’s land. Here’s the question: How much does Washington love Landry? I have to think that, a solid deal, and they’d move down, but that might not be the case. Moving to 9 also increases the risk that their top two targets (Landry and Okoye) are off. Anyhow, not really a surprise, but

    Miami Dolphins pick: QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame

    Personal comment:

    Miami gets its QB of the future. Washington rolls the dice and hopes that Okoye is at 9.

    7. Minnesota Vikings

    Not really an ideal situation, with some elite talent off. The DE talent is too raw, WR is a bit of a reach, so they go

    Minnesota Vikings pick: S Laron Landry, LSU

    Personal comment:

    Their current 5 (Doss, Williams, Blue, Sharper, Smith) certainly don’t excite. I didn’t see a deal I liked, and some of the current safeties may get cut.

    8. Atlanta Falcons f/ Houston Texans

    So … with Landry off … which trench side? The nod goes to …

    Atlanta Falcons pick: OT Levi Brown, Penn State

    Personal comment:

    Washington’s hoping Atlanta passes on Okoye, and I think it makes sense for them to. The Falcons need OL help a bit more than they need DL help, and it’s hard to pass on LT talent at Levi’s size.

    9. Washington Redskins f/ Miami Dolphins

    Washington dropped 3 spots hoping for one of their main targets, Okoye or Landry, to be around. They get lucky and nab

    Washington Redskins pick: DT Amobi Okoye, Louisville

    Personal comment:

    I’m not sold on all the WR talk here. 3rd rounder could be used for that. They could look deal again, but nothing stands out. Okoye helps fill a key DL need

    10. Houston Texans f/ Atlanta Falcons

    I looked hard for a deal here, as I, for some odd reason, follow the Texans movements somewhat. I just don’t see anything I like, and I’ve backed off the previously suggested Bills move. The nod goes to …

    Houston Texans pick: DE Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas

    Personal comment:

    I liked the Mario move last year. This, IMO, would be a mistake. That said, it’s slightly early on the WR’s, RB’s, and Joe Staley. This allows them to slide Weaver in I guess. The positive might be that Jamaal might get more one-on-one focus here, with Mario on the other side.

    11. San Francisco 49ers

    I think they nab …

    San Francisco 49ers pick: ILB Patrick Willis, Mississippi

    Personal comment:

    I think Willis tops their board anyways, but Carriker being off would increase the chances of this being a quick pick. Fine pick, as the role of ILB’s in the 3-4 has always been underappreciated. Furthermore, Willis might fit better as a 3-4 ILB than a 4-3 LB.

    12. Buffalo Bills

    Cover 2 SAM LB sizes are always a bit overdiscussed. Ryan Nece was playing SAM at mid-220’s for the Buccaneers. Hillenmeyer is in the 230’s. Why do I say this? The nod goes to …

    Buffalo Bills pick: LB Jon Beason, the U

    Personal comment:

    Some Bills fans might be upset with this … but they’d perhaps be more upset with a CB (the lean would be Leon Hall I think), which is looking like a stronger possibility than I envisioned, and probably what many Bills fans don’t want.

    13. St. Louis Rams

    Not sold on Branch here. Nod goes to …

    St. Louis Rams pick: CB Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh

    Personal comment:

    This would really help shore up the secondary. If Branch isn’t in the equation, that opens up Carriker, WR, or CB, and it sure seems they are looking hard at CB.

    14. Carolina Panthers

    The safeties in round 2 (Tanard Jackson/Eric Weddle) are nice, but …

    Carolina Panthers pick: S Reggie Nelson, Florida

    Personal comment:

    Admittedly, no great clue, so taking the lead from Pat Yasinskas reporting. Joe Staley’s a thought here, but they have to get some safety talent with Minter retiring next year.

    15. Pittsburgh Steelers

    This is their ideal scenario, IMO. Someone that can help as a 3-4 end now and potentially be the 4-3 UT they might desire down the line.

    Pittsburgh Steelers pick: DL Adam Carriker, Nebraska

    Personal comment:

    If the Steelers deal down, watch for Kalil. As noted, Carriker is probably one of their top scenarios.

    16. Green Bay Packers

    End value isn’t here, so they’ll wait on that. Thus, it’s DB, WR, TE, or RB … or trade.

    Proposed Trade

    Green Bay gets the 21st and 70th overall
    Denver gets the 16th overall

    Denver Broncos pick: DT Alan Branch, Michigan

    Personal comment:

    Certainly, Thompson doesn’t mind dealing down. Branch fits Bates ideal dimensions for a DT, and there seems to be enough speculation that someone will take a shot on him in the mid-first range, and Denver could use him and has the extra assets to afford such a move.

    17. Jacksonville Jaguars

    Nelson is off, making this choice easier. That said, even if Nelson was on, my nod was to

    Jacksonville Jaguars pick: S Brandon Meriweather, the U

    Personal comment:

    Seems like many are pleased that Meriweather won’t be a big red flag. If not, then his talent clearly is worth it here, as he could be a dynamic safety. They need safety help bad … and end value is iffy here. But don’t rule out end, though.

    18. Cincinnati Bengals

    They may want a trade, but I don’t see one I love, and it might be hard to pass on

    Cincinnati Bengals pick: CB Leon Hall, Michigan

    Personal comment:

    Not a huge fan of Hall, but he’s the solid type that might do them some good. Addresses a big need for them.

    19. Tennessee Titans

    I’d like to make a deal, but I don’t see anything. So, the DL options are largely off here this time around, leaving them WR or CB. CB value is iffy, so the nod is to receiver, but who? The guess here is …

    Tennessee Titans pick: WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU

    Personal comment:

    It could be any of the three WR’s, but the thought process here is that Bowe’s consistency might edge out the sliding Ginn Jr. and the, well, raw Meachem for Fisher’s taste. Of course, it’s fair to ask how much personnel power Fisher has.

    20. New York Giants

    I think a trade best serves their purpose, but I couldn’t talk myself into one. So, do they go for the slight talent reach, the slight character reach, or the darkhorse nod? What do I mean? The nod is to …

    New York Giants pick: CB Eric Wright, UNLV

    Personal comment:

    Paul Posluszny is the other option, but I’m just not sold that they are on him as much as some suggest. Certainly a consideration. They definitely need to upgrade their corner play, and Wright has been my 2nd favorite corner in this draft. There seems to be a growing belief that Wright’s past won’t hurt him that much. We’ll have to see on draft day, but going CB makes more since than LB if the value is there. Staley’s the darkhorse nod … but he’s probably the one guy whose value is rock solid here. WR was a distant thought, but I can’t see Ted Ginn Jr. here after taking Sinorice, and just not sure they’d take Meachem.

    21. Green Bay Packers f/ Denver Broncos

    They managed to drop back. What now? The nod goes to

    Green Bay Packers pick: RB Marshawn Lynch, California

    Personal comment:

    They drop back … and potentially still get the guy they were targeting. That defines a good trade, no matter how Lynch’s career turns out.

    22. Dallas Cowboys

    I think they’ll look to move down. The late first round jockeying begins here for this scenario

    Proposed Trade:

    Chicago gets the 22nd and 53rd overall
    Dallas gets the 31st and 37th overall

    Chicago Bears pick: OT Joe Staley, Central Michigan

    Personal comment:

    I contemplated two trades here. Chicago and San Diego. News in recent days leads me to believe that San Diego’s going to have to move up if they want a safety in round 1. But the potential of a deal with Chicago might be more possible with the positioning of the Bears picks. Growing speculation in recent days has Chicago focused on OL for the future. Drafting on in the late first and early 2nd would mean focusing on Tony Ugoh, a dangerous proposition. If Staley falls to 23, he’s gone, IMO.

    23. Kansas City Chiefs

    Without Staley, this makes the choice harder. Grubbs is a strong contender here. That said, the nod goes to

    Kansas City Chiefs pick: DT Justin Harrell, Tennessee

    Personal comment:

    Long, long thought to Grubbs, but indications seem like they’ll wait on OL unless someone like Staley is here. If not OL, CB, WR, DL comes to mind. Nod goes to Harrell, who has been steadily climbing up the ladder.

    24. New England Patriots f/ Seattle Seahawks

    What’s the call? I think they’ll get trade offers, but the nod is to

    New England Patriots pick: S Michael Griffin, Texas

    Personal comments:

    I think the Patriots would strongly consider a big deal, but Griffin might be tempting enough here. It’s the Patriots, but I will say I’m not a huge fan of this move if it happens.

    25. New York Jets

    This one’s quick, for now

    New York Jets pick: TE Greg Olsen, the U

    Personal comments:

    Certainly, Chris Houston might draw consideration here. That said, Mangini developed CB’s while in New England. With Harrell off as well, the look went to TE and edge talent. Edge guys can be found later, and while I’m not a big fan of Olsen, his physical skill is unique in this draft, and both Mangini and Schottenheimer’s previous stops used the TE a lot. They could certainly use another receiving option anyways.

    26. Philadelphia Eagles

    Safety value is off the board. What now? Is there a trade that makes sense? I don’t see it with how things fell this time around. So thus, I’m making a pick. What’s the call? Nod goes to …

    Philadelphia Eagles pick: CB Chris Houston, Arkansas

    Personal comments:

    A lot of steam on CB being the look here. Not too fond of the move … but the question is … if they are stuck here … what else? Not many other options out there that really make a lot of sense.

    27. New Orleans Saints

    They tried hard to move up, but I couldn’t see anything that I liked. A lot of potential fits are off the board (Harrell, Olsen). What now? LB is a thought … but in a small surprise

    New Orleans Saints pick: WR Ted Ginn Jr., the Ohio State

    Personal comments:

    Poslusnzy seems like a Payton type of player and was quite tempting, but Ginn Jr. has the time to develop and is such a dynamic talent that it might be worth the look, considering they have additional picks. Ginn Jr. and Bush … so tantalizing.

    28. New England Patriots

    I had this in a previous iteration, and I’ll go back to it … without looking for a deal

    New England Patriots pick: ILB David Harris, Michigan

    Personal comments:

    Harris fits for the ILB role, and some youth could be added there. That said, wouldn’t surprise me if a deal happened here, but at first glance, nothing stands out.

    29. Baltimore Ravens

    Tough, tough calls. A lot of quality talent that makes for solid value here. I thought deal … but I didn’t find one that I’m in love with, so

    Baltimore Ravens pick: C Ryan Kalil, Southern California

    Personal comments:

    Probably not what any Ravens fans really desire, but this time around, I didn’t feel a deal here that I really liked. Posluszny would draw long consideration, as would perhaps Meachem and maybe a CB if one is of value. Ugoh could get a long look as well.

    30. San Diego Chargers

    They move down and go with

    San Diego Chargers pick: WR Robert Meachem, Tennessee

    Personal comments:

    While they like Gonzalez a lot, I don’t think they pass on Meachem if he’s here, and if they can’t move up for a safety.

    31. Dallas Cowboys f/ Chicago Bears

    Guess is

    Dallas Cowboys pick: OLB/DE Anthony Spencer, Purdue

    Personal comments:

    I think they look to add a pass rusher to complement Ware, and Spencer is a nice solid fit. Yes, Meachem is here and would draw a long look. 30 and 31 could be flipped.

    32. Indianapolis Colts

    You would think that, with someone like Robert Meachem on the board, I could talk myself into a trade. But I’m hardpressed to figure one out here. In perhaps a mild surprise, the nod is to

    Indianapolis Colts pick: CB Josh Wilson, Maryland

    Personal comments:

    Wilson’s been rising. Does he have the momentum to force his way into round 1? Don’t rule it out. Helps out in the return game, and is more ready than some of the other bigger names to step in at CB (names such as Aaron Ross).
    Last edited by toonsterwu; 04-23-2007, 07:21 PM.

  • #2
    Joe Thomas? Say it isn't true!


    • #3
      I wouldn't complain with that eagles pick.


      • #4
        Not a big fan of the Eagles taking a CB in round 1, but Johnson is a good pick if they're stuck at #26 with no one else around.

        Could you see them possibly moving up or down in the 1st?

        Originally posted by snuff
        Yeah, good joke. Awesome.


        • #5
          Originally posted by Creek Lewis View Post
          Not a big fan of the Eagles taking a CB in round 1, but Johnson is a good pick if they're stuck at #26 with no one else around.

          Could you see them possibly moving up or down in the 1st?
          I can definitely see down ... if an option emerges ... up probably not.

          On a side note, I think I'll put up a 2nd round sooner than expected ... but perhaps with no new trades.


          • #6
            okay raider pick

            "Just Win Baby"- Al Davis


            • #7
              Your last mock you didn't have Michael Griffin as a first round talent when you were asked why he didn't go to the Eagles. Now you have him going in the mid to late first. What changed your mind? I am not a fan of any CB in round one. I think in this situation, with Griffin off of the board, we would pick Poz or another LB, or maybe even a DE, depending on who is left.
              Nanna Bryndís Hilmarsdóttir is a goddess

              Rest in Peace, themaninblack


              • #8
                Originally posted by eaglesalltheway View Post
                Your last mock you didn't have Michael Griffin as a first round talent when you were asked why he didn't go to the Eagles. Now you have him going in the mid to late first. What changed your mind? I am not a fan of any CB in round one. I think in this situation, with Griffin off of the board, we would pick Poz or another LB, or maybe even a DE, depending on who is left.
                A variety of information and occurrences, including the upward movement of the safety class with Nelson going at 14 this time around, and Jaguars taking a 2nd safety. On a personal perspective, I think it's a reach, but that being said, it can happen, and the Patriots are definitely looking hard at safeties and are the type willing to target guys.

                As for the Eagles, while I think DE makes sense, a lot of thought seems to be that they'll look at DE later on.


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Lions WMD View Post
                  Joe Thomas? Say it isn't true!
                  This idea has been growing on me. I will say that I definatly like Thomas more than Adams as a prospect . . . I just think DE is a bigger need for Detroit than OT, so I have generally supported the Adams pick in the past.

                  But I will not be too upset to see this happen, as Thomas is the better player, all things considered.

                  I have my concerns about Adams and his character concerns (lazy? smoked pot? hmm . . . ).


                  But what DE would be there for us to take in round 2? You have Moss and Spencer off the board at the end of the round . . . ???

                  I would love to pick up LaMarr Woodley, but I think we need to do better than him. And he is more of a mid to late 2nd.
                  R.I.P. L.E.F.
                  "I am the one who knocks!"


                  • #10
                    I like the pick, but how come you like willis over carriker? I prefer both, but my preference is

                    1. Carriker
                    2. Willis

                    I think willis will be a playmaker so im not dissapointed, but the 3-4 DE class is just so weak after carriker...who else do you think we would take to fill our 3-4 DE Void if we dont take carriker?


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by 49ersfan_87 View Post
                      I like the pick, but how come you like willis over carriker? I prefer both, but my preference is

                      1. Carriker
                      2. Willis

                      I think willis will be a playmaker so im not dissapointed, but the 3-4 DE class is just so weak after carriker...who else do you think we would take to fill our 3-4 DE Void if we dont take carriker?
                      I like Carriker more than Willis as well, but as of now, my feeling is that the Niners board has Willis ahead of Carriker. That said, could be the other way.


                      • #12
                        What does San Diego get in the trade???


                        • #13
                          Carriker over Willis for SF


                          • #14
                            Oops. double post


                            Anyhow, Xio, I messed things up, so Moss will be there.
                            Last edited by toonsterwu; 04-23-2007, 07:20 PM.


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by BoltsOnTheBeach View Post
                              What does San Diego get in the trade???
                              Oops, I screwed up the end. Thanks. I was working two different scenarios and got it mixed up.



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