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My first ever mock draft

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  • My first ever mock draft

    This is my first ever mock draft so please don’t be too harsh in your criticisms!

    It may seem overly long and some of it may not make much sense (Most of it was rushed in the early hours of this morning to get it out today and may just be aimless wittering rather than structured analysis!) and I didn’t have full Roster lists at the time so I may have got muddled up / missed certain players / spelled several names incorrectly (You try remembering Ma’ake Kemoeatu without a computer!!!) and got mixed up about certain things. Also, obviously being in the UK, I’ve not seen too much of every guy so some of my comments may be way off.

    There’s definitely a couple of things which I’ve not seen before which I wanted to throw out there (and a few things I don't like) but for the most part it’s pretty standard.

    However, any and all comments would be greatly appreciated.

    1. Oakland Raiders

    JaMarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson, JaMarcus Russell. That’s the two apparent options for the Raiders at #1. The Raiders have passed on talents like Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler in recent drafts which have really hurt them as they have struggled on with poor to mediocre quarterback play, although their talented wide receivers haven’t provided much either as of late. That said, it’s easier for a Quarterback to make a Wide Receiver look good than a Receiver to make a Quarterback look good. Although it is close, and Al Davis’ win now approach may seem to favour Calvin Johnson, JaMarcus Russell’s arm and size may prove too much to pass up and following Johnson’s recent marijuana admissions (You have to figure that Al Davis would at least have a nagging doubt in his mind following his recent experiences with Wide Receivers), Russell has the current lead, although this is closer to 51/49 than 60/40.

    Selection : JaMarcus Russell. Quarterback. Oakland Raiders.

    2. Detroit Lions

    Hello, anyone. Everyone, can we trade down? Please. Please. We’re pretty desperate. It seems that everyone knows that Detroit wants to trade down and with Calvin Johnson left on the board, you know that Detroit is going to be fielding some calls from Tampa Bay, Washington (You don’t take everyone in your organisation to Georgia Tech for Reggie Ball) and Atlanta. Even though the Quarterback talk re : Brady Quinn seems staged, you can also bet that on account of Cleveland’s legitimate interest, teams interested in the Notre Dame quarterback will also be looking to trade up. That said, the talk is that the Lions have recently fallen in love with Gaines Adams, although it needs to be remembered that after the combine, Joe Thomas was pretty much a lock here as well so that may give the edge to Tampa, who are the only team who can give Detroit a chance to select Gaines Adams.

    However, I’m going to go in a direction that I haven’t seen anywhere else. (Probably for a reason)

    Trade : Miami Dolphins send their 9th pick, 40th pick and 71st pick in the 2007 NFL Draft and a 2nd round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft for Detroit Lions’ 2nd pick in the 2007 NFL Draft.

    Value Board : Detroit sends 2,600 points. Miami Dolphins send 2,085 points guaranteed and a pick that will merit between 580 and 270 points, giving a potential value of between 2,355 and 2,665.

    Value in reality : Detroit trade down from the #2 spot and acquire a spot that will still allow them to draft a top ten prospect and probably a guy they really like. They also get two additional first day selections this year to assist in Rod Marinelli’s rebuilding project, whilst also acquiring a second round pick next year which is a pick that will help to correct any underachieving this year.

    On the numbers front, the deal favours Miami, but any time you give up three chances to acquire future starters, you are taking a big hit. A hit bigger than the value chart shows. However, the Dolphins have really struggled since the retirement of Dan Marino and a new coach will have time whilst a rookie QB develops and if you want a franchise QB then you have to pay big bucks; normally bigger than what Miami have given up.

    Cam Cameron is inheriting a Quarterback situation that, in reality, is a mess. Cleo Lemon seems to be out of the picture. Cameron had him in San Diego and the talk surrounding the acquisition of a new QB would seem to indicate that Lemon is not seen as the answer. He has been in the league long enough that he would not need to be #2 any longer whilst the talk surrounding a new Quarterback also indicates that Daunte Culpepper is on the outer and Joey Harrington has also been released.

    This move also gives the Dolphins greater leverage in dealing with Kansas City Chiefs and if Trent Green could be signed, then Brady Quinn would receive more impressive coaching and mentoring, whilst the Dolphins still may be able to get a very late round pick for Daunte Culpepper.

    All in all, I’m not 100% sold on this deal, but when you break it down, it makes a lot of sense for both parties and I think there’s as good a chance as this happening as any other trade for this position.

    Selection : Brady Quinn. Quarterback. Miami Dolphins

    3. Cleveland Browns

    If Detroit fielded some calls about Calvin Johnson, then you can bet Cleveland’s phone will be ringing off the hook at this point, and you can bet they’ll be getting some pretty generous offers. However, all the pre draft talk has centred around JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn and Adrian Peterson for the Browns, who need a franchise player to lift the franchise out of the somewhat doldrums they have been in lately. With two of those players gone, then you can bet that the Browns will be focusing in on Adrian Peterson and won’t want to trade down and out of the range to acquire a potential franchise player.

    What should also be remembered is that last year the Browns were able to move down one spot in the draft and still acquire their main target while saving cap space and receiving an additional draft pick. They say lightening doesn’t strike twice, but does it…

    Trade : Tampa Bay Buccaneers send their 4th pick and 102nd pick in the 2007 NFL Draft for Cleveland Browns’ 3rd pick in the NFL Draft.

    Value Board : Tampa Bay sends 1,892 points. Cleveland Browns send 2,200 points.

    Value in Reality : The Bucs seem to be getting a very good deal on the value board. However, to ensure they get their man they are giving up a 4th round draft pick which represents a potential starter and will have to pay Johnson more money than if they stay put.

    The Browns, on the other hand, seem to be getting shafted, but will still get their man, at a cheaper cost and an additional draft selection. Appearances can be deceiving.

    The Bucs are a team with leaks in a lot of places, but it’s hard to resist the best player in the draft when you already have four first day draft selections and are giving up, in reality, not that much for him. Wide Receiver is also somewhat of a need position, with Joey Galloway aging and Michael Clayton fading. This move sets a stall for the Bucs to go on and have a great draft.

    Selection : Calvin Johnson. Wide Receiver. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

    4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    It’s hard to imagine there being much a market for this pick now with the identity rather obvious. A team needing a running back may enquire about trading up, but the likely cost will quickly dissuade them. The signing of Jamal Lewis is only for one year, with no tie ins at all, which indicates that the Browns don’t see him being the long term answer, which this guy can be should he remain injury free.

    Selection : Adrian Peterson. Running Back. Cleveland Browns

    5. Arizona Cardinals

    If you presented this situation to most NFL fans and asked who the Cardinals would select, most, if not all, would quickly answer with Joe Thomas. It may surprise you therefore, that a Cardinals fan is going in another opposite direction. Let me say firstly that this is not what I would do (I would hand in Joe Thomas’ name within 5 seconds of being on the clock) and this represents a nightmare scenario for me as a Cardinals fan.

    However, this is what I think will happen, with nearly all reports coming out of Arizona indicating that the team is not high at all on Joe Thomas and actually prefer Levi Brown. More than that however, the Cardinals are said to covet Adrian Peterson and this guy, with Russ Grimm actually reported to believe that Mike Gandy and Oliver Ross can be capable starting tackles for the Cardinals. Therefore, the selection to be made (and one that would make me cry into my beer as I believe that this guy will be a major disappointment) is one that I won’t even analyse, as I can’t begin to.

    Selection : Gaines Adams. Defensive End. Arizona Cardinals.

    6. Washington Redskins

    Like Detroit, Washington are said to really want to trade down, which is somewhat odd given their recent attitude towards draft picks. The availability of Joe Thomas is bound to result in several calls enquiring about this pick which the Redskins will be only too happy to field. The teams that I feel may be most likely to look into acquiring this selection include Houston and Denver, two teams that have recent history of aggressive trading / drafting.

    The problem for Washington may be getting a trading partner with good value. The Skins would be unlikely to take Joe Thomas, and Minnesota Vikings who have the pick below would be just as unlikely to take Thomas, which gives the advantage to the trading up team. The Broncos would realistically have to give up around three mid round picks and the Texans would have to give up their remaining first day picks, or ensure that they have just one draft pick in the first day next year, which are both very heavy prices to pay for teams with several needs. However, there is one team that I feel will be willing to pay a heavy price.

    Trade : New York Giants send their 20th pick and 51st pick in the 2007 NFL Draft and their second round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft for the Washington Redskins’ 6th pick in the 2007 NFL Draft.

    Value Board : Washington Redskins send 1,600 points. New York Giants send 1,240 points guaranteed and a pick that will merit between 580 and 270 points, giving a potential value of between 1,510 and 1,820 points.

    Value in Reality : The Skins get a very good deal which enables them to move down and pick up two additional early draft picks to help in providing quality depth.

    The Giants may be slightly overpaying from a numbers point of view and especially so when considering what they are giving up in two second rounders. They are a team with a number of holes, especially in the Defensive Backfield, at Linebacker and at Wide Receiver, where Plaxico Burress is inconsistent, Amani Toomer is aging and Sinorice Moss was disappointing as a rookie.

    However, this is a team that (rightly or wrongly) heavily invested in Eli Manning and cannot afford to give up on him. They say a Running back is a Quarterback’s best friend, but despite Tiki Barber doing everything he could to help Eli, that never worked, so how about a change and getting Eli a new best friend in Joe Thomas. Manning struggles heavily under pressure, and Thomas will enable Manning to not have to worry about his blindside, where Luke Pettigout is gone, David Diehl is ill suited and Guy Whimper is merely a project. And however good a project is, you can’t afford to overlook a future Pro Bowl calibre playing, especially at a position of such importance.

    Selection : Joe Thomas, Offensive Tackle. New York Giants.

    7. Minnesota Vikings

    When the Vikings appointed Brad Childress as coach last year, I’m sure they did not expect to be picking so high in the NFL Draft in 2007. However, they are, and they also seemed to have acquired a guy with an ego as large as Terrell Owens with added stubbornness. There’s no doubt that Wide Receiver is a position of need, but the likely value here and the depth at the position in the draft probably rule that out here. O-line help is not required (Not in Round 1) and Brady Quinn and Adrian Peterson are already off the board, and you have to doubt if either would be selected even if they remained. The Vikes are fairly set at DT, CB and LB so the choice would appear to come down to DE or S, and, luckily, BPA and Need collide. The Vikings didn’t get much production from their DEs last year, but Ray Edwards will be one year more matured and Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James should be fully healthy and productive. Whilst the Jaguars have plenty of names at S, they have no long term superstars, which LaRon Landry definitely can be and therefore, they go with Landry.

    Selection : LaRon Landry. Safety. Minnesota Vikings.

    8. Atlanta Falcons (From Houston Texans)

    The Falcons have a new coach and several needs all over the place and their most likely selections are to come from Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, LaRon Landry, Levi Brown, Amobi Okoye and Jamaal Anderson. However, with the first three off the board, it comes down to the last three. Brown, who would aid Bobby Petrino’s goal of making he O-line larger, Okoye, who Petrino coached at College, and Jamaal Anderson, who offers explosiveness off the edge.

    Whilst Petrino’s connections may make Okoye the obvious candidate at first, he may not be able to step in as a starter immediately, and Jamaal Anderson may be a slight reach here and less of a need pick than Levi Brown, who could play at Left or Right Tackle, assist the run game and have a QB in Michael Vick whose mobility can make up for Brown’s slow foot speed and inconsistent pass protection skills.

    Selection : Levi Brown. Offensive Tackle. Atlanta Falcons.

    9. Miami Dolphins

    This pick now belongs to Detroit and the Lions are likely to go on the defense here with offensive value sorely lacking. The Lions have needs all over the defense and are likely to primarily consider between their #1 cornerback, Patrick Willis, Amobi Okoye and Jamaal Anderson.

    Whilst help on the D-line is needed, as is help in the secondary following the departure of Dre Bly, the nod goes to Patrick Willis, whose timed speed has pole-vaulted him up draft boards. Willis would improve a LB group who, whilst boosted by Ernie Sims at #9 last year, still requires further improvement.

    Selection : Patrick Wills. Linebacker. Detroit Lions.

    10. Houston Texans (From Atlanta Falcons)

    The Texans, like most teams drafting in the top ten, have several needs, and when you consider the potential value here, are most likely to select between WR, CB and the D-line. O-line value isn’t here at all and I don’t buy the RB talk at all with Ahman Green recently having been signed, and Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, Sam Gado and Chris Taylor all capable of stepping into a running game which Kubiak has shown doesn’t need a high draft pick.

    WR value here isn’t spot on, and whilst a complement to Mario Williams is required, and the likes of Jamaal Anderson and Amobi Okoye are available, you can’t ignore the needs in the defensive backfield, where DeMarcus Faggins may have been the weakest starting corner in the NFL last year. Therefore, the nod goes to the #1 CB on the Texans’ board to team with Dunta Robinson and whilst it isn’t clear as to who this is, with no shutdown corner in this draft, the nod goes to.

    Selection : Leon Hall. Cornerback. Houston Texans.

    11. San Francisco 49ers

    The 49ers are a team with several needs, several draft picks and a very good, young coach who has got the team performing above its talent level. Mike Nolan has been wanting the team to change to a 3 – 4 Defensive front, although its personnel has seemingly prevented this from occurring yet.

    However, with the signing of Aubrayo Franklin, the 49ers are set with a big Nose Tackle, whilst Bryant Young could play one of the DE spots, so drafting a guy like Adam Carriker (or maybe even Jamaal Anderson) could allow the 49ers to go to a 3 – 4 full time and allow them to get the best out of last year’s first round pick Manny Lawson.

    That said, the speed of Patrick Willis would be an intriguing option if he is still on the board. Wide Receiver is another position of need, with the team only having Ashley Lelie of note on board and given the wealth of receiving talent in the NFC West, help in the Defensive Backfield would be appreciated, although LaRon Landry will almost certainly be gone by now, and the current CB trio of Nate Clements, Shawntae Spencer and Walt Harris may allow this area to wait for a bit yet.

    For now, the nod goes to Carriker, whose incredible athletic ability is often overlooked and represents very good value here following his impressive Senior Bowl although I do have a nagging doubt about this pick for some reason.

    Selection : Adam Carriker. Defensive End. San Francisco 49ers.

    12. Buffalo Bills

    Although predicting Buffalo’s draft selection may seem impossible, it seems like you can narrow this down to linebacker or running back. However, I’m not sure you can totally rule out cornerback or a pass catcher (WR or TE) depending on the value. Nate Clements has gone and Ashton Youboty is raw and J.P Losman only has Lee Evans of note to throw to, with Josh Reed, Peerless Price and Roscoe Parrish all seeming more like #3s than #2s.

    I know that Buffalo often reach for a prospect, but I get a feeling that they may have their eye on enough guys to try to engineer a trade down, especially considering that Jamaal Anderson, Alan Branch and Amobi Okoye, once considered top ten locks, are still on board and are likely to not last past #16. The question therefore, is who would trade up and how far down would the Bills be willing to go.

    Whilst their interest in Marshawn Lynch has seemingly waned recently, the fact that their current starting back is Anthony Thomas ensures that Lynch is enough of a realistic prospect, that they may be able to drum up enough interest to force a trade with a team who want Lynch, although they may not get full market value.

    Trade : Green Bay Packers send their 16th Draft Pick and 78th Draft Pick to the Buffalo Bills for their 12th Draft Pick and 111th Draft Pick.

    Value Board : Buffalo Bills send 1,272 points. Green Bay Packers send 1,205 points.

    Value in Reality : Buffalo move down four spots and whilst they pass on a running back, they move down little enough to likely secure a linebacker. Sure, it’s a risk, but it’s pretty low risk, and in the worst case, a WR/TE prospect will be available to assist J. P. Losman, or they could take advantage of a D-line prospect in free fall.

    If Anthony Thomas starting causes sleepless nights, then Vernand Morency isn’t exactly a tranquiliser. The Packers may move down a bit from the 3rd to the 4th, but they did a good enough job of acquiring starters last year that whilst their roster is not exactly Superbowl level, they can afford the move down in the 3rd to boost their offense, for one last go with Brett Farve at the helm. Whilst they could have stayed where they were, had they drafted offense, then Greg Olsen may well be gone and another Wide Receiver may not be wholly needed. Whilst Donald Driver may be slowing, Greg Jennings will be fully healthy and Ruvell Martin is a very underrated receiver.

    Selection : Marshawn Lynch. Running back. Green Bay Packers.

    13. St Louis Rams

    If the draft unfolds like this, the Rams will have a variety of options available to them; more so than they would have thought at the start of the draft. The primary options available to them would appear to be Ted Ginn Jr, Darrelle Revis, and the three D-lineman available in Jamaal Anderson, Alan Branch and Amobi Okoye.

    I’m going to rule out Ginn immediately. Scott Linehan doesn’t employ a wide open offense and has already brought in Joe Klopfenstein, Dominique Byrd, Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael in his time in charge. Therefore, the choice is D-line, or Corner. Certainly, a long term replacement for Leonard Little is needed and Anderson would warrant much consideration. I’m going to rule out Alan Branch. His unimpressive pro day, character and injury issues and the Jimmy Kennedy experiment are enough to remove him given the talent on the board. Amobi Okoye would be considered, but like Oakland and Calvin Johnson, there must be at least a slight concern over the marijuana use. The Rams pounced on Cloude Wrotten last year and so Okoye may be ruled out, given what is left on the board in this situation. The Rams’ interest in Kris Jenkins may also go against Okoye.

    As for Darrelle Revis, I know the Rams took a corner in the first last year, and have Ronald Bartell and Fakhir Brown on the roster, but they are in a conference which has several good Wide Receivers and Revis can also assist a return game which scares no-one. Therefore, the nod goes to Revis, but it’s close. Very close.

    Selection : Darrelle Revis. Cornerback. St Louis Rams.

    14. Carolina Panthers

    The Panthers are another team who could opt to go in several directions, with the four most likely given who is remaining on the board being Jamaal Anderson, Jon Beason, Amobi Okoye and Greg Olsen.

    Coach Fox is a defensive guy which may initially give the nod to the defensive guys, especially Anderson and Okoye who have fallen far below their expected placing. However, the offense struggled last year and Greg Olsen would provide another target for Jake Delhomme, which he needs. (Although if David Carr has been brought into challenge immediately, they may take the option to wait and see how things go rather than giving Delhomme a safety net.)

    Whilst this could go either way, Okoye is in freefall here and I can see a couple of teams calling up Carolina to try to trade for Okoye and this may make Carolina’s decision for them.

    Trade : Denver Broncos send their 21st Draft Pick and 56th Draft Pick to the Carolina Panthers for their 14th Draft Pick.

    Value Board : Carolina Panthers send 1,100 points. Denver Broncos send 1,140 points.

    Value in Reality : Carolina get to move down and have enough possible targets to accept the risk and get the slight advantage as it is a seller’s market.

    For Denver, they get a prospect the NFL has never seen before. They could maybe just trade for Kris Jenkins, but Okoye has an equally as high, if not higher ceiling. Gerard Warren is set at one DT position, but the other appears vacant and Okoye could challenge immediately and eventually provide a Trevor Pryce like pass rush up the middle. Sure the Broncos have several needs (LB, S, O Line and possibly DE) but Okoye is too good to resist and fits in with Mike Shanahan’s recent aggressive drafting style.

    Selection : Amobi Okoye. Defensive Tackle. Denver Broncos.

    15. Pittsburgh Steelers

    4-3 or 3-4. 3-4 or 4-3. Does anyone really know? The Steelers are a team with a few needs and new coach Mike Tomlin will need to correct these quickly. Whenever I’ve looked at the draft before, I’ve tended to think Darrelle Revis / Levi Brown here but both are off the board and the value at their respective positions is off. Jamaal Anderson is available, but is he a good 3-4 fit if they run that? If they are going to 4-3, I can see Anderson being the pick, but given the uncertainty, it may be best to take a guy who can play LB (which is one of the Steelers’ needs) in both the 3-4 and 4-3 and who is climbing up draft boards.

    Selection : Jon Beason. Linebacker. Pittsburgh Steelers.

    16. Green Bay Packers

    Is anyone still reading.. If so, can you remember who has this pick? It’s the Buffalo Bills and as explained above their primary option at this point would likely be LB, although TE/WR cannot be wholly discounted. Recent rumours have Paul Posluszny going to the Bills. Posluszny is an excellent player who is becoming more underrated as we head closer to the draft but that does not stop the Bills, who pounce here.

    Selection : Paul Posluszny. Linebacker. Buffalo Bills.

    17. Jacksonville Jaguars

    The Jaguars are a team who are a team that appear set to make a good run to the playoffs this year although they have several positions that can be upgraded. Ted Ginn Jr is an option here. Matt Jones’ 4.3 combine speed really hasn’t translated onto the football field yet although the fact that they have used their past three first round selections on pass catchers may dissuade the Jaguars from taking a WR here. Byron Leftwich is the team’s QB for now, and although there are doubts around him, there isn’t a QB of good enough value to select here. Defensive End is another potential option with Reggie Hayward coming off a serious injury and Paul Spicer getting older and being nothing better than good, at best. However, with Bobby McCray and Brent Hawkins backing up at this position, this route appears unlikely although if Jamaal Anderson were available, he would be an intriguing option. Linebacker is another possible option, with Mike Petersen aging and coming off a serious injury, although the performance of Clint Ingram last year likely dissuades a first round pick being spent on this position. Therefore, unless the Jaguars are going to solely go down the BPA route, a Safety appears to be the most likely option. Deon Grant is gone and Gerald Sensabaugh would appear to be slightly in the dog house following his recent arrest (and additionally, he provides much needed depth for the oft injured Donovan Darius). Whilst there are legitimate concerns over Reggie Nelson’s intelligence, the Jaguars are supposedly high on his character and athletic ability and therefore, he is the pick here.

    Selection : Reggie Nelson. Safety. Jacksonville Jaguars.

    18. Cincinnati Bengals

    The Bengals’ options at this point would likely be Jamaal Anderson, Alan Branch, Chris Houston and potentially Greg Olsen and Lawrence Timmons.

    I’m discounting the latter two on account of value issues for Timmons and due to the fact that Carson Palmer actively campaigned for Reggie Kelly to return, indicating that Greg Olsen won’t be selected as there is not really a need. (Although with Chris Henry out, a legitimate third pass catcher as a threat is required but Chris Perry could fill this role in parts, if healthy.)

    Alan Branch doesn’t seem like a Marvin Lewis player and Michael Myers has just been signed so a DT is also not really a position of need. Therefore, it’s between Anderson and Houston. Justin Smith is on an expensive franchise tag and may not be back next year which may make Anderson an attractive choice alongside Robert Geathers, although Frostee Rucker is yet to be given a chance which may hurt Anderson’s chances. Corner is an area of concern as well with Deltha O’Neal seemingly in the dog house and Tory James on the way out. Therefore, the nod goes to Houston, whose upside is equalled only in his bust possibility.

    Selection : Chris Houston. Cornerback. Cincinnati Bengals.

    19. Tennessee Titans

    The Titans are another team with multiple needs. Wide Receiver appears to be the main area of concern, but you can’t ignore the potential needs in the Defensive Backfield and on the Defensive Line. A kick returner is also required to cover for Adam Jones. However, an understated need is Running Back, where LenDale White’s character and work ethic concerns which prompted a large drop last year are still haunting him.

    Therefore, before the draft the Tennessee Titans make a trade.

    Tennessee Titans give their 19th selection in the 2007 NFL Draft and a conditional draft selection in the 2008 NFL Draft (4th Rounder for less than 1,000 Yards from the Line of Scrimmage, 3rd Rounder if between 1,000 and 1,500 and 2nd Rounder if over 1,500) to San Diego Chargers for the 30th selection in the 2007 NFL Draft and Michael Turner.

    (However, if the Titans had not made the trade, then I think it would have taken less than a minute for Jamaal Anderson to be the selection.)

    Value Board : Tennessee Titans give 875 points guaranteed to San Diego Chargers and a pick that will merit between 580 and 44 points. San Diego Chargers give 700 points guaranteed and Michael Turner. The deal therefore values Turner as between 219 points (75th Selection) and 755 points (24th Selection)

    Value in Reality : The Titans are giving up a deal which is dependent upon performance which also makes the trade somewhat equitable. They are signing a starting running back without giving up a pick in 2007 and the loss of a pick in 2008 could be offset should Adam Jones return.

    The Chargers are backing that Michael Turner will be successful, but this makes more sense than risking losing him for nothing and it needs to be noted, that Indianapolis Colts could have acquired Turner for as few as 706 points, showing that the Chargers could get a better deal than the minimum value placed on Turner this off season.

    As for the pick, the Chargers have done an excellent job of building their team throughout the recent past and have very few holes, the main two being Safety and Wide Receiver. So, which way do they go?

    I’m not one for analysing history in drafts, but the past two years have seen the Chargers select a potential defensive star in the first and then finding excellent offensive value in the second. Therefore, I’m going to go defense, which also corresponds with their greatest need (The Chargers already have L. T and Antonio Gates on offense) and whilst this guy is rarely listed this high in Mock Drafts, he is relatively good value here and has the skill set worthy of this position.

    Selection : Michael Griffin. Safety. San Diego Chargers.

    20. New York Giants

    This pick now belongs to the Washington Redskins and most mock drafts have them focusing on the D-line, which ties in with their main need. There is no one else at another position of outstanding value currently available. Alan Branch is available and would provide them with the force up the middle that they need. However, there is a guy available who some mock drafts have going to Washington at #6 and offers excellent value here.

    Selection : Jamaal Anderson. Defensive End. Washington Redskins.

    21. Denver Broncos

    Another selection that has changed hands, with the Carolina Panthers now holding this position. I stated above a bunch of guys that the Panthers may target and it now looks set to come down to Greg Olsen and possibly Alan Branch, who is really falling in this mock, but I can’t find a way to slot him in or a realistic trade for him. The presence of Ma’ake Kemoeatu ensures that Branch’s free fall continues… for now.

    Selection : Greg Olsen. Tight End. Carolina Panthers.

    22. Dallas Cowboys

    Finally, a pick without a trade. Well, not one yet. Alan Branch is falling and Wade Philips must be giving him some thought. As the Cowboys must to a wide receiver and an edge rusher to compliment DeMarcus Ware. A guy like Jarvis Moss or Anthony Spencer could develop into an elite pass rusher here, but is this what is needed to push the Cowboys forward.

    A wide receiver will also be considered. Terry Glenn is aging and Terrell Owens is unreliable. Patrick Crayton is a nice option, but probably not a #1 whilst the back-ups need time to develop. Dwayne Bowe could be an option, as could Robert Meachem whilst Ted Ginn could give the Cowboys the speed and kick return potential needed. Finally, the Cowboys will probably consider help in the defensive backfield, but I can’t see Brandon Merriweather going here and I don’t think Aaron Ross is the answer either. Some reports have the Cowboys trading down, but I think there are too many available options to do that.

    It probably comes down to Branch or a Wide Reciver. However, I’m not sold on Alan Branch being a Wade Phillips guy and ultimately, it is likely to be Jerry Jones’ call. I can see someone potentially trading up for this guy before now, on account of his unique ability, but I haven’t been able to factor one in.

    Selection : Ted Ginn Jr. Wide Receiver / Kick Returner. Dallas Cowboys.

    23. Kansas City Chiefs

    The Chiefs are a team whose needs don’t match their draft position. They are unsettled at QB, although shouldn’t give up on Brodie Croyle yet. There are rumours of Larry Johnson being unhappy, but RB value is not here. WR value is here and this is a big, big need although Herm Edwards has played this down. The O-line is a major concern, at both Tackle and Guard, although is Ben Grubbs worth the #23 pick and is Joe Staley a good fit? DT is a major need and Alan Branch is available whilst their cornerbacks are aging and Aaron Ross is available.

    This one could go a number of ways but I’m currently limiting it to WR where Dwayne Bowe or Robert Meachem would significantly help out the Chiefs and where Herm Edwards appears to be actively stating a WR is not on the agenda. CB is another option where Aaron Ross could be the nickel for a year or two before replacing Ty Law or Patrick Surtain. DT is the third, where although Alan Branch was worked hard on his Pro Day and did not come out with a glowing endorsement, there are no direct reports that he disappointed the Chiefs, who have a need at this position for a long time. This is close, but I just have a sneaking feeling that the Chiefs will cushion a major fall.

    Selection : Alan Branch. Defensive Tackle. Kansas City Chiefs.

    24. New England Patriots (From Seattle Seahawks)

    The Patriots have two first round selections and will hope to make the most of both of them. The Pats have several needs and although they appear set on Offense, a star Wide Receiver could be an option given that Robert Meachem and Dwayne Bowe are still on the board, as could Joe Staley at Offensive Tackle. The Pats also spent a lot on Adalius Thomas, but need to infuse some youth into the position. Cornerback could be a route, if Asante Samuel is as unsettled as reports indicate, whilst Safety is another option.

    I’m going to go with a guy who I’ve long thought will go at #28 but may go at #24 given my current #28. (I don’t look back in the drafts, but the Pats may believe that their other target is more likely to be available at #28.)

    The guy is someone with top 25 talent and whilst he has character concerns, these have quietened down lately and with strong influences like Bill Bellicheck and Rodney Harrison, Merriweather is unlikely to be a concern. The Pats often take guys with some concerns, which usually evaporate once they have joined.

    Selection : Brandon Merriweather. Safety. New England Patriots.

    25. New York Jets

    The Jets are a team who had little business going 12-4 last year but excelled thanks to great effort and great coaching. However, they don’t have all that many needs, with the offense appearing largely set other than at TE, where there is currently no value.

    Aaron Ross at CB is one option, and you can’t totally rule out David Harris, given the Jets’ possible need for a second middle linebacker and the Pats’ interest in him. A 3-4 DE could be considered, but the value may be slightly off. However, an explosive edge rusher is more likely, where Anthony Spencer and Jarvis Moss appear most likely. I have a feeling that Moss could fall out of the first, but at the same time, his explosiveness and ability to get to the Quarterback gives him the edge here for now.

    Selection : Jarvis Moss. Defensive End / Outside Linebacker. New York Jets.

    26. Philadelphia Eagles

    The Philadelphia Eagles are a team who appear to have several small holes but no gaping large ones. Quarterback appears to be off the menu for now, and whilst Running Back may garner some consideration, the current duo of Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter may push this off until later, as may the newly signed Kevin Curtis in relation to Receiver. TE value is a no no and surely the Eagles have drafted in the trenches enough in the past few years.

    Linebacker does not appear an immediate concern, following the signing of Takeo Spikes. Cornerback is an option. Aaron Ross is available, although the Eagles have enough good corners that this is not a first round need, unless the value is very good. Safety is an option where someone is needed to challenge Sean Considine, but again there are value concerns. This is likely too high for Eric Weddle and almost definitely too high for Tanard Jackson.

    Therefore, the value is somewhat off here and the Eagles may look to deal this pick. Initially, I thought Tennessee may move up here to select a Wide Receiver, but the talent remaining at this position makes this idea fairly redundant. I then thought of the 49ers, who have enough selections to move up, but decided against this as they would still have several quality options to choose from with their second round pick.

    However, there is one team, sensing that it’s a buyers market, that makes the deal.

    Trade : Philadelphia Eagles give their 26th selection in the 2007 NFL Draft to Detroit Lions for the 34th selection and 101st selection.

    Value Board : Detroit give Philadelphia Eagles 656 points and Philadelphia Eagles send Detroit Lions 700 points.

    Value in Reality : The Eagles are keen to move down and do so whilst losing out nominally on the trade value chart, but gaining an additional 4th round selection. They also don’t appear set on losing out on a featured guy. The Lions give up a 4th round pick, but get the better of the deal via the trade chart, and still have a multitude of picks remaining and more time on Sunday morning to prepare for Round 5.

    The Lions move up and at first, it’s not totally clear why or who for. Anthony Spencer could be an option, as could Aaron Ross. Interior O-line help could be another reason, as could Lawrence Timmons, although unlikely.

    The player the nod goes to is one who has enjoyed a recent rise up the draft board. He is at a premium position and one which usually sees three players go in the first round. It is not entirely clear if / why the Lions would move up. Although the Ravens and Bears are both possibilities to acquire this guy, it would appear unlikely. However, you can’t rule out a rival moving up and this guy appears to be the type of QB capable of thriving under Mike Martz.

    Selection : Trent Edwards. Quarterback. Detroit Lions.

    27. New Orleans Saints

    There is little doubt that the Saints are an offensive team and have more holes in the defense than the offense. The D-line could do with an upgrade at DT, although it is passable, as are their LBs and with Paul Posluszny off the board, value here is only so so. CB was another issue, but has receded with the signing of Jason David (Although it is unknown if he will succeed in a new scheme). Still, Aaron Ross could be a good selection and could develop into a very good player.

    However, the Saints have a gaping hole at WR. Although Joe Horn was injured last year, his loss is still a big one which needs to be addressed. Dwayne Bowe and Robert Meachem have both fallen further than expected and therefore could be potential targets here and like the Houston Texans, I expect the Saints to choose the one who is #1 on their board.

    Selection : Robert Meachem. Wide Receiver. New Orleans Saints.

    28. New England Patriots

    Second option for the Pats? You can’t rule out Aaron Ross, Joe Staley, or a wide receiver. Maybe even Brian Leonard. But the selection, for now, goes to David Harris. A future starting middle linebacker is needed, Harris has recently been strongly linked and therefore he’s the direction the Pats go.

    [B]Selection : David Harris. Linebacker. New England Patriots.[/B

    29. Baltimore Ravens

    Traditionally, the Ravens do a great job of drafting and regularly have few needs, although this year they may have slightly more than usually. Kyle Boller appears to be on the way out and Steve McNair is no spring chicken, although QB value is somewhat off here. A WR cannot be discounted with Dwayne Bowe and Dwayne Jarrett available with Derrick Mason aging. The Ravens traditionally replace departed players well, but a guy like Anthony Spencer or maybe even Lawrence Timmons could draw consideration, as could Aaron Ross, with the Ravens’ CBs also aging.

    However, the Ravens’ O-line would appear to be their primary concern, with Tony Pashos having left, the interior O-line merely being above average (at best) and Jonathon Odgen contemplating retirement. Ben Grubbs and Ryan Kalil are both excellent prospects who could step in immediately, whilst a trade down for Justin Blalock or Arron Seers could also be an option.

    However, Joe Staley is a guy who has fallen much further than I would have expected. I had thought of the Ravens initially trading down with Detroit until I realised that Joe Staley may still be available and made the Lions trade with the Eagles. The Ravens are said to highly covet him and he has definite Left Tackle potential. He could come in and develop behind Jonathan Odgen and that’s the selection here.

    Selection : Joe Staley. Offensive Tackle. Baltimore Ravens.

    30. San Diego Chargers

    This pick now belongs to Tennessee Titans and I initially thought of having them moving to #26 to select a WR before New Orleans, but given the WRs still remaining, I decided against that. As discussed above, the Titans’ primary need is WR with Drew Bennett gone to assist the development of Vince Young as a passer. None of Ben Troupe, Brandon Jones, Courtney Roby or Roydell Williams have shown consistent signs of developing into a starter. DB help is required following Adam Jones’ departure, although the Titans have signed Nick Harper. Both Aaron Ross and Eric Wright are good value who can assist in the return game, although the latter’s character concerns may scare the Titans off. D-line help in the form of Justin Harrell is also an option.

    However, if you draft a QB high, you need to surround him with talent to help him succeed. This gives the edge to WR and I believe that the sure handedness of Dwayne Jarrett, and his relationship with Norm Chow, make him the choice over Dwayne Bowe.

    Selection : Dwayne Jarrett. Wide Receiver. Tennessee Titans.

    31. Chicago Bears

    The Bears are another team who could go in several directions. Rex Grossman’s play last year may produce calls for a QB, but he showed enough, in connection with the back up experience of Brian Griese to not make this a first round need. Likewise, a complimentary RB for Cedric Benson is not such a need. TE value, if a need exists, is off and whilst O-line youth is required, there may be other priorities.

    With Ian Scott currently unsigned and Tank Johnson in jail, a DT like Justin Harrell could receive consideration, as could a linebacker like Lawrence Timmons. However, a WR could be a first round need. Muhsin Muhammed is aging, and Bernard Berrian, Mark Bradley and Rashied Davis are more deep threats than possession receivers. Dwayne Bowe is the #2 WR on some teams’ boards and if he is still available here, could result in some trade talks. However, although he doesn’t have the best hands in the draft, he can help the Bears out with his skills after the catch and toughness, whilst providing Rex Grossman with another target to aid his development.

    Selection : Dwayne Bowe. Wide Receiver. Chicago Bears.

    32. Indianapolis Colts

    Superbowl champions they may be, but even the most ardent Colts fan would admit that they have plenty of needs, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Safety is an area of concern, given Bob Sanders’ health issues, although given the performance of Antoine Bethea last year, the Colts probably don’t need to spend a first day, let alone first round pick on this position. Anyway, Marlin Jackson could always help out there, although this would leave the Colts ridiculously thin at CB, where they have lost both starters from last year. Although the Colts have used a few high draft picks at CB in recent years, it is not a premium position for them and the Colts would appear to be more in need of a veteran influence anyway. Linebacker is an area of deep concern. Rob Morris is not a long term answer and Cato June has been lost. However, the team are high on Freddie Keihao and the team probably feel that the position does not need a first round pick, although they may be tempted depending on the value. The D-line is also listed as an area of need, although it needs to be remembered that their second round pick has been spent on a DT, which may reduce the desire to use a first round selection on this position. That leaves the offense, and with Brandon Stokley leaving and Marvin Harrison aging, WR is a possibility, with a guy like Anthony Gonzalez appearing to be an excellent fit. However, the Colts proved last year they can cope without Stokley (Aaron Moorehead and Dallas Clark can fill in the 3 WR set) and Marvin Harrison is the youngest 34 year old guy in the league and has several years left. Further, Bill Polian isn’t the type of guy to use an early pick on the O-line. Therefore, the selection is an “off the wall one” but one that makes sense. The guy can catch the ball very well (the Colts’ used a short passing game last year and whilst Ben Utecht was decent, he offered nothing to very little after the catch), he can both run and pass block to a good standard and he can give Joseph Addai a breather here and there and is excellent insurance. He also appears to be the type of person that Tony Dungy would love and that Peyton Manning would really appreciate.

    Selection : Brian Leonard. Running Back. Indianapolis Colts.

    The following players were “on the cusp” of the first round and actively considered to be placed here. (Alphabetical Order) :

    Aaron Ross.
    Anthony Gonzalez.
    Anthony Spencer.
    Ben Grubbs.
    Eric Weddle.
    Justin Harrell.
    Lawrence Timmons.
    Ryan Kalil.
    Last edited by UK Cards Fan; 04-24-2007, 03:57 AM. Reason: Bolding Selections
    Will post for +rep.

  • #2
    Can't complain with your Buccaneer pick but I'm not going through the rest


    • #3
      Hey dude, its always good to see more people from the UK getting interested in the draft.
      Considering its ur first draft ever its not too bad. However, ive gotta say that from my teams stand point (the pack) our general manager ted thompson, im 99% sure will not trade up in the draft even for someone like lynch, granted it does seem that the packers oranisation do consider a terrific prospect, its not the only need for the team, and most people i know would be happy to trade down, pick up olsen and then pick up a running back in round 2 or 3, as that position is quite deep in this years draft.
      Thats all i got, good job


      • #4
        Packers will not trade up for Marshawn.


        • #5
          Fair enough. Thanks for the heads up.
          Will post for +rep.


          • #6
            Originally posted by MrQL View Post
            Packers will not trade up for Marshawn.
            Yeah, Lynch is a good pick at 16, but Thompson isn't gonna move up.

            Sig thanks to mockalicious


            • #7
              NIce write up man!


              • #8
                BTW, love the Lions pick!


                • #9
                  you are smoking something if you think miami trades all the way up to number 2

                  And if we did we would take Calvin Johnson over Brady Quinn


                  • #10
                    Alan Branch is awesome pick unrealisitc but still awesome


                    • #11
                      very interesting giants trade: we really did not even have to give up that much. i like it

                      sig by jkpigskin

                      2007 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS

                      2011 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS


                      • #12
                        I really see no way that the Cardinals would pass on Joe Thomas. He is an elite prospect and fills a huge need for the team. Adams is excellent, but that made it seem completely unrealistic. After that, I really couldn't read much more into your mock.

                        I am "America's Poster"...


                        • #13
                          Why would tampa trade up with CLE? Doesn't make sense to me...Cle won't take CJ and they know that.


                          • #14
                            I'm a fan of the cowboys pick...but this line makes no sense. Too many options available to trade down....that is normally the main reason teams trade down.


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by thule View Post
                              Why would tampa trade up with CLE? Doesn't make sense to me...Cle won't take CJ and they know that.
                              Do they now?



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