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the curse of 400= LJ decline?

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  • the curse of 400= LJ decline?

    Larry Johnson’s workload last year has doomed his career, according to those cynical bastards that have no clue what kind of wear his tires have. Being quick to use the 400 carry barrier as number to allow yourself to conclude such misgivings is premature.

    Jamal Anderson, Eric Dickerson and some nobody previously had over 400 attempts in a season, then apparently fell of the face of the earth. Jamal Anderson was well on his way to a great career before hitting that repugnant number of 400 in 1998. After that season Anderson accumulated 973 carries at the pro level, and in college spent three years a starting running back. His career tragically ended after tearing his ACL, which has yet been proven to have any correlation with the amount of carries he had. Robert Edwards career was not full of season of 300 carries or more.

    The career which must be examined even closer is that of Eric Dickerson. A workhorse of the 80’s. In his 1st four years (83-86) he amassed 55 rushing TDs and 6968 rushing yards on 1465 carries. His carry out put those 1st four years was 390, 379, 292, 404. An average of 366.25 a year. The question that remains ‘did the 404 carries cause his career to fall off a cliff?’ Look at the stats, first thing you will notice he had 3 more years of over 1,000 yards rushing after a strike shortened season in 1987. His average numbers those next three seasons 308 carries, 1327 yards. Far from abysmal. To evaluate the rest of his career may or may not have any coincidences with his breaking the 400 carry barrier in 1986.


    How can you go onto say that just because he reached 400+ carries means his career is on the decline.?!.?
    my scent?...like making love to a lumberjack
    <TACKLE> i will ngata give you a bj raji
    <+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
    <+ScottWright> Why not. Baldwin does need a sparring partner...
    Originally posted by Hermstheman83
    What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.

  • #2
    Sean Alexander- 1969 attempts, injury problems
    Ahmen Green- 1871 attemps, old
    Travis Henry- age, 28, 1321 carries, injuries.
    Rudi Johnson- age 27, 1271 carries
    Jama Lewis- age 27, 1522 carries
    Willis McGahee- age 25, 868 carries, injuries
    Willie Parker- age 26, 624 carries
    Bryan Westbrook- age 27, 736, never played a full season yet (not a bad thing)
    Clinton Portis- 1385 carries, age 25, injuries



    LJ- 892 carries, age 27
    my scent?...like making love to a lumberjack
    <TACKLE> i will ngata give you a bj raji
    <+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
    <+ScottWright> Why not. Baldwin does need a sparring partner...
    Originally posted by Hermstheman83
    What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.

    Comment


    • #3
      someone help me with WHY HE WILL DECLINE?
      my scent?...like making love to a lumberjack
      <TACKLE> i will ngata give you a bj raji
      <+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
      <+ScottWright> Why not. Baldwin does need a sparring partner...
      Originally posted by Hermstheman83
      What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.

      Comment


      • #4
        this is stupid!!! Larry Johnson has touched the ball 989 times in his first 4 years thats including receptions thats only 247.25 times a year! Now LT on the other hand has touched the ball 1654 times (in his first 4 years) including receptions thats 413.5 times a year! Thats close to the double the amount LJ has touched the ball. not to mention LT played more college years then LJ. And LT may get less touches on the ground but they throw him the ball more plus they want to increase his work load. LT touched the ball 404 times last year LJ touched it 457 times receptions included.

        Sick Sig By BoneKrusher

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        • #5
          and including ruynning styles, the line's of all these backs. LJ's skills haven't diminshed.

          Someone help me here please?
          my scent?...like making love to a lumberjack
          <TACKLE> i will ngata give you a bj raji
          <+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
          <+ScottWright> Why not. Baldwin does need a sparring partner...
          Originally posted by Hermstheman83
          What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by bored of education View Post
            and including ruynning styles, the line's of all these backs. LJ's skills haven't diminshed.

            Someone help me here please?
            LJ's skills wont diminsh unless he suffers and injury. It may become a little bit harder on him though this year because his line is falling apart and LT's line is very good. Plus they dont have Trent Green as there QB anymore so they may rely on him even more if there backup Haurd or whatever isnt that great.

            Sick Sig By BoneKrusher

            Comment


            • #7
              He will only get approx 14-20 carries 1st game. Then from there who ever steps up Kolby Smith, Mike Bennett or Priest Holmes will take approx. 5-9 carries a game.
              my scent?...like making love to a lumberjack
              <TACKLE> i will ngata give you a bj raji
              <+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
              <+ScottWright> Why not. Baldwin does need a sparring partner...
              Originally posted by Hermstheman83
              What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.

              Comment


              • #8
                uh.........good thread.

                its impossible to say that he will or he won't until the season. people have talked about the 400 carries and the upright style he runs with. no one can say forsure if the trend will continue, but its possible. not forsure, but possible. i'm not sure if u need a thread to cry fowl. ur opinion is urs and people are saying he might wear down because of those carries, and thats really all there is to it. i can't see anyone saying anything u don't already know already, and neither they or u can say with certainty what the outcome will be.


                Courtesy of Fenikz - Much Appreciated

                Originally posted by dRaFtDoRk
                You can't be a good corner if no one throws your way. Thats my way of seeing it.

                Comment


                • #9
                  thank you mr. vilma!
                  my scent?...like making love to a lumberjack
                  <TACKLE> i will ngata give you a bj raji
                  <+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
                  <+ScottWright> Why not. Baldwin does need a sparring partner...
                  Originally posted by Hermstheman83
                  What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by PackerLegend View Post
                    this is stupid!!! Larry Johnson has touched the ball 989 times in his first 4 years thats including receptions thats only 247.25 times a year! Now LT on the other hand has touched the ball 1654 times (in his first 4 years) including receptions thats 413.5 times a year! Thats close to the double the amount LJ has touched the ball. not to mention LT played more college years then LJ. And LT may get less touches on the ground but they throw him the ball more plus they want to increase his work load. LT touched the ball 404 times last year LJ touched it 457 times receptions included.
                    and people act as if LT is made of steel, but honestly i expect Lj to play at a higher level longer then i would LT....at some point, LT's gonna have to take a load off at some point, he wont be able to do what he's doing as far as offensive production when he is 33





                    Originally posted by Scott Wright
                    I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I think # of carries are only one of many reasons why LJ will decline this year. He is on a declining team with a crap line and no QBs or WRs. Worse yet, the Chiefs defense isn't any better than their O so he isn't gonna get set up with good field position much and the Chiefs are going to be out of games early and often. Still more, his hold out makes him less prepared for the season and he probably isn't all there mentally either; he might not even care if he's winning games for the Chiefs.

                      With all that LJ has going against him this year, I would be shocked if he matched his production last year, and probably call him the best running back ever because he basically has to do everything himself.

                      Thanks to BK for the sig

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by PackerLegend View Post
                        LJ's skills wont diminsh unless he suffers and injury. It may become a little bit harder on him though this year because his line is falling apart and LT's line is very good. Plus they dont have Trent Green as there QB anymore so they may rely on him even more if there backup Haurd or whatever isnt that great.
                        My point exactly, and if LT can stay good then why cant LJ. The only reason he might do bad is because of no help, not because his skills deminshed. Call me in 2-3 years then we can talk about how bad he'll do.



                        Sig thanks to Bonekrusher

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by umphrey View Post
                          I think # of carries are only one of many reasons why LJ will decline this year. He is on a declining team with a crap line and no QBs or WRs. Worse yet, the Chiefs defense isn't any better than their O so he isn't gonna get set up with good field position much and the Chiefs are going to be out of games early and often. Still more, his hold out makes him less prepared for the season and he probably isn't all there mentally either; he might not even care if he's winning games for the Chiefs.

                          With all that LJ has going against him this year, I would be shocked if he matched his production last year, and probably call him the best running back ever because he basically has to do everything himself.
                          which is what LT used to have to do...
                          In '02 LT had around 450 touches and the next year he had close to 410



                          Sig thanks to Bonekrusher

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by umphrey View Post
                            I think # of carries are only one of many reasons why LJ will decline this year. He is on a declining team with a crap line and no QBs or WRs. Worse yet, the Chiefs defense isn't any better than their O so he isn't gonna get set up with good field position much and the Chiefs are going to be out of games early and often. Still more, his hold out makes him less prepared for the season and he probably isn't all there mentally either; he might not even care if he's winning games for the Chiefs.

                            With all that LJ has going against him this year, I would be shocked if he matched his production last year, and probably call him the best running back ever because he basically has to do everything himself.
                            That is where you are wrong and don't know what your talking about. The Chiefs defense is much better than the O.

                            He isn't going to care if he's winning games for the Chiefs? Where do you come up with this crap?

                            I guess you will just have to see when the Packers come to Arrowhead. Brett Favre has never beaten the Chiefs and I expect that streak to continue.

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                            • #15
                              Here's a post I made a few weeks ago:

                              Everyone who has carried the ball 370 or more times in a season didn't do well the following. Let's start with the most recent...

                              Shaun Alexander 2006: 370 carries, 1880 yards, 5.1 AVG
                              Shaun Alexander 2007: 252 carries, 896 yards, 3.6 AVG

                              Curtis Martin 2005: 371 carries, 1697 yards, 4.6 AVG
                              Curtis Martin 2006: 220 carries, 735 yards, 3.3 AVG

                              Jamal Lewis 2003: 387 carries, 2066 yards, 5.3 AVG
                              Jamal Lewis 2004: 235 carries, 1006 yards, 4.3 AVG

                              Ricky Williams 2002: 383 carries, 1853 yards, 4.8 AVG
                              Ricky Williams 2003: 392 carries, 1372 yards, 3.5 AVG

                              Edgerrin James 2000: 387 carries, 1709 yards, 4.4 AVG
                              Edgerrin James 2001: 151 carries, 662 yards, 4.4 AVG

                              Jamal Anderson 1998: 410 carries, 1846 yards, 4.5 AVG
                              Jamal Anderson 1999: 19 carries, 59 yards, 3.1 AVG

                              Terrell Davis 1998: 392 carries, 2008 yards, 5.1 AVG
                              Terrell Davis 1999: 67 carries, 211 yards, 3.1 AVG

                              As you can see when someone carries the load 370+ times in a year the following year they either get hurt or their production drops off.
                              Last edited by Ewing; 08-28-2007, 07:22 PM.

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