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  • Originally posted by YAYareaRB View Post
    Quote

    Sniping

    Is

    AWWW$$$0|\/|333ZZZZZZ
    Noooooooooooooooooooooooo! :P

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    • Originally posted by yourfavestoner View Post
      Not to mention that he was actually showing some half ass decent signs of development in his only season with a good offensive coordinator.

      Also, this is kinda off topic, but everybody keeps talking about how Wade Phillips should be looking over his shoulder. But shouldn't Norv Turner be just as concerned? I'd assume that it's Superbowl or bust in Chargerland, and anything less would feel like a bitter disappointment. Will AJ Smith axe Norv and go after a better head coaching candidate if that happens?
      To be honest I don't know why he was hired in the first place. When I heard he was interviewing I thought it was to replace Cam Cameron as the OC. Instead all of a sudden he's announced as the HC.

      I think the chargers should have been in the SB already and they've had the roster but not the coaching to do so.

      Comment


      • It is really refreshing to see some non-49er fans defending Alex Smith. Everyone I know seems to have an irrational hate of him

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Ness View Post
          Okay so you're just stating a pure logical approach? For what reason? Yes it's obvious that giving some more experience is going to give them a chance to improve faster. Practice makes perfect. Okay? I told you that even though that's the logical approach, and I agree with it, it doesn't always work out. And sometimes the reverse happens where a player that doesn't have that much starting experience performs great from the beginning. And whether a quarterback succeeds or fails isn't always on their shoulders. I know you may not have been saying that, but just keep it in mind.
          But you've still dodged the fundamental question. Why do you think Smith will succeed when the overwhelming amount of evidence says that he won't?

          And if it's no longer in the Smith's hands, and he'll fail not through his own fault, but due to incompatabilities with the system and personnel, he'll still fail, he'll still hurt the team, and the team is better off searching for someone else who won't fail in those circumstances.

          And that's totally subjective on both our ends.
          Not really. He was certainly far better than anything that Alex Smith has put up yet. Aikman's completion percentage was great by any standard. Aikman's passer rating in 91 was the exact same as Carson Palmer's was this season. I guess the Bengals should be looking for someone to replace Palmer, because he wasn't successful this season, nor was Chad Pennington, Derek Anderson, Phillip Rivers, or Eli Manning.

          I never implied the 49ers had an explosive offense that year, or could have. Nor did I insinuate that the 49ers didn't have trouble on offense. But if you watch the games the 49ers and their defense were getting blown out from the start until the 49ers played Minnesota. That's when Mike Nolan decided to handle the defense personally. And it payed off. The defense actually gave us a chance and we finished with a 5-4 record after starting 2-5.
          Or you went from playing the Chiefs, Eagles, Chargers, and Bears to playing the Seahawks, Lions, Vikings, and Broncos.

          Regardless if we were lucky to win the amount of games we did, we still won them and that's all that matters. That's like saying the 1999 Tennessee Titans were lucky to go 13-3 when statistically they weren't historically dominant.
          The 99 Titans had an average point differential of 4.2 ppg and had a turnover margin of +18. The point differential is on the low side for a 13-3 team, it gives you a pythagorean of about a 10-6 team. The last five teams to go 13-3 had margins of 8.1, 11.8, 9.0, 9.5, and 10.8. 4.2 ppg is low, but enough for a team with that kind of margin to expect to make the playoffs as a lower seed, which incidently, the Titans were a wild card team.

          The 06 49ers had an average point differential of -7.1, and a turnover margin of -5. That point margin is almost dead on average for 5-11 teams. If you look at the last five teams to go 7-9, you get margins of -6.4, -.3, -.9, -6.1, -.4, and -5.6. (Incidently, don't expect big things from the Bills or Lions in 08.)

          Below average 60% when compared to 58%. You keep trying to hang on to that piece of evidence like it's difference between completely abysmal and completely amazing, when it's not.
          No, but it is the difference between sub par and average.

          And Brees started a good amount of games the following season and had a lower percentage, but his season wasn't cut short by injury it was cut short by bad performance period.
          That tends to happen when you've got a fan favorite backing you up and you regress. It happened to Matt Hasselbeck in his first season with the Seahawks. A brief period of sub par performance early on isn't good, but it isn't a death knell, however an extended period of weak performance to start off a career almost always is.

          Low yardage total. The 49ers were 30th in passing attempts that season if I'm not mistaken. Brees threw for more yards on more attempts but threw almost the same amount of touchdowns. Smith had less attempts but threw almost the same amount. As for fumbling, there have been a lot of great quarterbacks that have had fumbling issues. I already made an analysis on one. I don't see the same picture you're trying to paint. I only see a very similar comparison with a few tweaks trying to be made out into a difference like night and day.
          Once again, just because a good quarterback gets away with a fumbling problem doesn't mean you can just write it off. Smith threw TDs with slightly more frequency than Brees, but also threw INT with a wider margin more than Brees. INTs are more damaging to a team than a TD is helpful. A TD pass is only ten yards more valuable than a pass to the one yard line, while an INT is on average 45 yards more valuable than forcing a punt from the same LOS. Smith averaged 168 net passing yards per game in 06, Brees averaged 194.

          Why would I want a breakdown when I already told you about it? Larry Allen played well in run support, not in pass support are you kidding? His legs haven't moved that well for years. He was already old.
          In 2006 the 49ers averaged 4.4 yards behind Allen, in 2007 they averaged 4.27. In 2006, the 49ers were stuffed on 24% of their running plays, in 2007 that went up to 27%. The 49ers had a an Adjusted Sack Rate of 7% in 2006, in 2007 it went up to 10.3%. He might have already been old, but in 2007, he started playing like he was old.

          And yes you can fix coaching. You can fix what plays are called so they aren't predictable. That's why Tollener was brought in and surprise surprise, during the Arizona game we finally ended our losing streak and Dilfer passed for the most yards out of all his starts that season if I'm not mistaken.
          You misunderstood me. I meant that the coaching couldn't fix Allen's declining level of play. I did word that poorly. As for Dilfer's season high against Arizona, when you're playing the worst pass defense you'll face all season, you're expected to do better than you did against the better defenses.

          And the line was playing horribly through the first three games. Frank Gore was not getting the yards and blowing through defense like he was in 2006. Gore even said in practice during the middle of the season that the players just weren't committed do what Hostler was trying to teach them because it was very foreign and it didn't seem to be working the way things worked with Turner the previous year:

          Frank Gore - "Norv Turner, he's been doing it for awhile. Whenever he said something, we wanted to do it," Gore said. "Now I feel that a lot of people, when coach Hoss calls something, it gets in the back of their heads, 'Is he calling the right play?'"


          Yes the offensive line was weakened. But even during the opening game the 49ers offensive line was a shell of it's former self the previous season with practically the same amount of starters. It became significantly worse.
          But the majority of the offensive line issues were independent of coaching. Aging, injuries, and personal tragedies.

          Are you really going to judge someone's season performance based on something you have no clue about unless you're in their shoes? Yes Gore's mother died. That doesn't mean he didn't try his best on game day. He was literally running up the same holes out of the same formations almost all the time. Norv Turner didn't do that. We didn't have a toss play if I recall until the third game of the season. Or a trap. That's absurd. And our receivers were horrible at catching the football last year for whatever reason. This combined with bad line play, bad play calling, did not help Alex Smith in his third season. And that's the point I was trying to make all along. But despite all of these issues, in his first three starts his QB rating wasn't that bad.
          Since when was a 62.7 not bad? I'd rate that as pretty bad.

          What are you talking about? The 49ers were predicted to play the third easiest schedule and ended up playing the sixth when it was all said and done.
          The Seahawks and Cardinals were noticably improved across the board. The Rams offense was gutted, but the defense was playing at the same level as the year before. You replace the AFC West with the AFC North. The Vikings improved significantly.

          But you could do that about a lot of great quarterbacks who have had great seasons. But that doesn't mean they're necessarily better quarterbacks does it?
          No, but it'll tell you who had the better season, and when you're comparing a player's first season starting, as opposed to another player's second, and the player with less starting experience has a better season than anything the more experienced QB has done thus far, there might be something there.

          And Brees was dreadful the following season when he wasn't injured. At least I don't recall him having any significant injury. He just was benched. You're comparing small details in a sport that revolves around so many variables within a teamwork effort and trying to equate a huge difference. A 76.9 passer rating compared to a 74.8? I mean are you serious? I'm just not buying it sorry.
          Through two seasons starting, Drew Brees had a QB rating of 73.7. Through two seasons starting, Alex Smith had a QB rating of 65.5. You make a big issue about Brees having a regression his second season starting, but that's not that unusual, plenty of QBs will have a down year, and still turn out successful. Favre, Roethlisberger, Kitna, and Culpepper all had regressed years in their second or third season starting.

          And that is still a subjective opinion based on the parameters you define for success within a team effort. The Chargers had the 22nd hardest schedule in 2002. I could easily dismiss that personally as not a very big difference for the 49ers 2006 schedule.
          The AFC west Champion Raiders in 2002 went on to the super bowl. The Chiefs had the number one scoring offense in the NFL. The Broncos had the #3 offense and #6 defense. The chargers played each of those teams twice. The Chargers played the defending super bowl champions. The Chargers player 5 games against teams with losing records that season, in 2006, the 49ers played 7 teams with losing records.

          I was questioning when it ends, just when it starts. Regardless, if regular season accomplishments are a bigger deal than championships then we have different angles when comparing those aspects. If I were a Giants fan, I'd be happy for the championship instead of Eli's missed trip to Hawaii personally. Which is why I don't use Pro Bowl spots as an element for supporting most of my arguments.
          You're confusing being a good player with being on a good team. Eli was not a good player in 2007, he was on a good team in 2007. He was good for 3 games in the post season, but that's not indicative of his performance at large.

          But not during 2002 in my opinion no he was not better by a significant amount. Especially when he lowered his promise when doing horrible the following season when healthy and got benched.
          Even before Smith got hurt, his passer rating was lower than Brees' in 03.

          Stand Tall and Shake the Heavens!
          The Destroyer Is Manifest!
          I reserve the rights to retract any posts made betwen midnight and 5 AM PST due to being really, really drunk

          Comment


          • Originally posted by DragonFireKai View Post
            But you've still dodged the fundamental question. Why do you think Smith will succeed when the overwhelming amount of evidence says that he won't?
            I for one fail to see the overwhelming evidence that he won't succeed. Is it his rookie season when he was only 21 years old and in a situation where no quarterback could have done well? Is it his second season when he had a decent supporting cast and did reasonably well for a second year player? Or is it last season when he only played 3 games while healthy and had a record of 2-1 and then did horrible when he was playing injured?

            Originally posted by DragonFireKai View Post
            INTs are more damaging to a team than a TD is helpful.
            You lost a little credibility with that statement because it is just plain not true. When a touchdown is scored the team gets at least 6 points automatically but when an interception is thrown it doesn't always end in points for the other team

            Comment


            • Originally posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
              I for one fail to see the overwhelming evidence that he won't succeed. Is it his rookie season when he was only 21 years old and in a situation where no quarterback could have done well? Is it his second season when he had a decent supporting cast and did reasonably well for a second year player? Or is it last season when he only played 3 games while healthy and had a record of 2-1 and then did horrible when he was playing injured?
              QBs who don't find success in their first three seasons starting usually don't have successful careers. If a QB doesn't throw more TDs than INTs, throw for a decent percentage, or throw for good YPG early on, they don't develop. Let's look at recent QBs.

              Tom Brady: solid player first season starting
              Chad Pennington: Great season during first season starting.
              Ben Roethlisberger: Solid season during first season starting.
              Derek Anderson: Solid Season during first season starting.
              Carson Palmer: Great season during second season starting.
              Peyton Manning: Great Season during second season starting.
              David Garrard: Good season during second season starting.
              Phillip Rivers: good season during first season starting.
              Jay Cutler: good season during second season starting.
              Tony Romo: Good season during first season starting.
              Donovan McNabb: Great season during second season starting.
              Eli Manning: Servicable season during second season starting.
              Brett Favre: Great season during first season starting.
              Jon Kitna: Solid season during first season starting.
              Jeff Garcia: Great season during second season starting.
              Drew Brees: Great Season during third season starting.
              Jake Delhomme: Servicable season during first season starting.
              Matt Hasselbeck: Servicable season during second season starting.
              Kurt Warner: MVP first season starting.
              Daunte Culpepper: great season first season starting.
              Marc Bulger: Solid season first season starting.
              Steve McNair: Servicable season second season starting.

              That's just QBs who were active this season. I await your list of all the many QBs who were terrible for 3 or more years starting.


              You lost a little credibility with that statement because it is just plain not true. When a touchdown is scored the team gets at least 6 points automatically but when an interception is thrown it doesn't always end in points for the other team
              Think about it like this. When a QB throws a TD pass, they get credited with a pass of X yards and a TD. Drives that include such plays end in points of the board 100% of the time. What if it was simply a pass of X yards, and the reciever was downed on the one yard line? Drives that include such a play will end with points on the board 90% of the time. That 10% is the value of the TD.

              When a QB throws an INT, they're credited with an incomplete and an interception. When a drive includes an interception, it will result in points on the board 0% of the time. If it were simply an incompletion, than the drive would result in points on the board 45% of the time. That 45% is amount of damage an INT does.
              Last edited by DragonFireKai; 07-18-2008, 05:55 AM.

              Stand Tall and Shake the Heavens!
              The Destroyer Is Manifest!
              I reserve the rights to retract any posts made betwen midnight and 5 AM PST due to being really, really drunk

              Comment


              • To just pick out one, there are plenty more, you say Peyton had a Great Season during second season starting, but this was a season in which he threw forno less then 28 interceptions, in my world throwing more picks than td's is bad, also he got sacked way to much. Yes he threw for a couple of td's but to call his first season great is bullocks, it becomes good when you take into account he was a rookie, but that is not the point.


                Saints 2014 draft wish list:
                - No pass rusher till the fourth round (or preferably at all)
                - Corner or Wideout in the first
                - No reaching
                - No Kelvin Benjamin

                Comment


                • Originally posted by wicket View Post
                  To just pick out one, there are plenty more, you say Peyton had a Great Season during second season starting, but this was a season in which he threw forno less then 28 interceptions, in my world throwing more picks than td's is bad, also he got sacked way to much. .
                  Wrong. Peyton's second year as a starter he threw for 26 TDs and 15 INTs.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by GB12 View Post
                    Wrong. Peyton's second year as a starter he threw for 26 TDs and 15 INTs.
                    sorry was talking about his first season starting, my bad, also read the post wrong tbh, thought he was talking about first years starting, but his second year was pretty good yeah.


                    Saints 2014 draft wish list:
                    - No pass rusher till the fourth round (or preferably at all)
                    - Corner or Wideout in the first
                    - No reaching
                    - No Kelvin Benjamin

                    Comment


                    • But i'll pick on his brother then, In my opinion a completion % of under 50 is just plain bad, so are 50% more interceptions than td's, and he barely threw for a thousand yards. If that is servicable than the last two years of smith were also servicable. I am not saying that most qbs start of bad but its not all glory and sunshine for them in the early years usually.


                      Saints 2014 draft wish list:
                      - No pass rusher till the fourth round (or preferably at all)
                      - Corner or Wideout in the first
                      - No reaching
                      - No Kelvin Benjamin

                      Comment


                      • I did botch that one. I meant his second season, thought one thing, typed another. Nice catch, I'll +rep you for that.

                        Stand Tall and Shake the Heavens!
                        The Destroyer Is Manifest!
                        I reserve the rights to retract any posts made betwen midnight and 5 AM PST due to being really, really drunk

                        Comment


                        • DragonFireKai I'm not going to argue with you to this length anymore. It's quite ridiculous. Your main point is that you don't believe in Alex Smith's capabilities. That's fine. That's your opinion. My main angle is that that I don't know the outcome, and judging from both sides I can't even make a theory based on what I've factored in. And we'll leave it at that. We'll just have to wait until the season comes.
                          Last edited by Ness; 07-18-2008, 11:09 AM.

                          "Every light must fade, every heart return to darkness!"
                          -San Francisco 49ers: Five Time Super Bowl Champions-
                          Originally posted by Borat
                          Oh, my bad. Didn't realize SWDC was the pinnacle of class and grace.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by DragonFireKai View Post
                            QBs who don't find success in their first three seasons starting usually don't have successful careers. If a QB doesn't throw more TDs than INTs, throw for a decent percentage, or throw for good YPG early on, they don't develop. Let's look at recent QBs.

                            Tom Brady: solid player first season starting
                            Chad Pennington: Great season during first season starting.
                            Ben Roethlisberger: Solid season during first season starting.
                            Derek Anderson: Solid Season during first season starting.
                            Carson Palmer: Great season during second season starting.
                            Peyton Manning: Great Season during second season starting.
                            David Garrard: Good season during second season starting.
                            Phillip Rivers: good season during first season starting.
                            Jay Cutler: good season during second season starting.
                            Tony Romo: Good season during first season starting.
                            Donovan McNabb: Great season during second season starting.
                            Eli Manning: Servicable season during second season starting.
                            Brett Favre: Great season during first season starting.
                            Jon Kitna: Solid season during first season starting.
                            Jeff Garcia: Great season during second season starting.
                            Drew Brees: Great Season during third season starting.
                            Jake Delhomme: Servicable season during first season starting.
                            Matt Hasselbeck: Servicable season during second season starting.
                            Kurt Warner: MVP first season starting.
                            Daunte Culpepper: great season first season starting.
                            Marc Bulger: Solid season first season starting.
                            Steve McNair: Servicable season second season starting.

                            That's just QBs who were active this season. I await your list of all the many QBs who were terrible for 3 or more years starting.
                            -Brady was asked to do almost nothing in his first season and is also an all-time great quarterback
                            -Pennington had two seasons to sit and watch before he even started
                            -Big Ben was on a pretty solid team and was asked to do next to nothing in his first two season
                            -Derek Anderson was in a completely different situation
                            -Palmer had almost the exact same numbers in his first year starting, second season overall, as Smith had in his second season
                            -Peyton Manning is probably gonna end his career as the greatest QB ever
                            -Garrard didn't even start until his 5th season
                            -Rivers didn't start until after two seasons on the bench learning from a great QB
                            -Cutler was on a reasonably good team with good coaching and a good supporting cast
                            -Romo didn't start until his third season and had a great supporting cast
                            -McNabb is one of the best QBs of this generation and I am not comparing Smith to him
                            -Favre is one of the best QBs ever
                            -Kitna didn't start until his third season
                            -Garcia was a 30 year old with tons of experience and a great supporting cast
                            -Brees sat on the bench his first year, put up very similar numbers to Smith in his second, got worse in his third year, then made the Pro Bowl in his 4th. Smith is going into his 4th season and could still do the same
                            -Delhomme sat on the bench for two years
                            -Hasselbeck learned from Brett Favre for two years and still put up worse numbers in his third season than Smith in his second
                            -Warner already had experience and came to a loaded team
                            -Culpepper was throwing the ball to Cris Carter and Randy Moss while Smith had Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle. Who did you expect to do better?
                            -Bulger came into a loaded team and wasn't rushed onto the field
                            -McNair didn't start until his third year and had worse numbers that year than Smith in his second

                            Face it, no one, with the exception of Eli Manning, was in a situation even close to Smith's so comparing them to Smith is like comparing apples to oranges.

                            Originally posted by DragonFireKai View Post
                            Think about it like this. When a QB throws a TD pass, they get credited with a pass of X yards and a TD. Drives that include such plays end in points of the board 100% of the time. What if it was simply a pass of X yards, and the reciever was downed on the one yard line? Drives that include such a play will end with points on the board 90% of the time. That 10% is the value of the TD.

                            When a QB throws an INT, they're credited with an incomplete and an interception. When a drive includes an interception, it will result in points on the board 0% of the time. If it were simply an incompletion, than the drive would result in points on the board 45% of the time. That 45% is amount of damage an INT does.
                            For one that doesn't even make sense because the percentages for how often a team scores from the 1 yard line and how often a drive that includes an incompletion are just guesses, not actual statistics. Secondly, that is a horrible way to look at it. The fact is that if your quarterback throws a touchdown you are guaranteed 7 points on the board while the other team will certainly not get any points for it and if your quarterback throws an interception than neither team is guaranteed any points. So throwing a touchdown will always give you a net gain of 7 points while the net gain or loss for an interception varies and at worst it will be a net loss of 7 points.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by DragonFireKai View Post
                              Tom Brady: solid player first season starting
                              Chad Pennington: Great season during first season starting.
                              Ben Roethlisberger: Solid season during first season starting.
                              Derek Anderson: Solid Season during first season starting.
                              Carson Palmer: Great season during second season starting.
                              Peyton Manning: Great Season during second season starting.
                              David Garrard: Good season during second season starting.
                              Phillip Rivers: good season during first season starting.
                              Jay Cutler: good season during second season starting.
                              Tony Romo: Good season during first season starting.
                              Donovan McNabb: Great season during second season starting.
                              Eli Manning: Servicable season during second season starting.
                              Brett Favre: Great season during first season starting.
                              Jon Kitna: Solid season during first season starting.
                              Jeff Garcia: Great season during second season starting.
                              Drew Brees: Great Season during third season starting.
                              Jake Delhomme: Servicable season during first season starting.
                              Matt Hasselbeck: Servicable season during second season starting.
                              Kurt Warner: MVP first season starting.
                              Daunte Culpepper: great season first season starting.
                              Marc Bulger: Solid season first season starting.
                              Steve McNair: Servicable season second season starting.

                              That's just QBs who were active this season. I await your list of all the many QBs who were terrible for 3 or more years starting.
                              And thats all totally subjective and opinionated, but clearly not factual. Steve McNair serviceable his second season starting? That really wouldn't fly for me at all. And it doesn't really matter if you want to tweak irrelevant statistics that wouldn't make a huge difference. In my opinion he was a worse passer than Smith was his first three years. You didn't even factor in how old the quarterbacks were, how much experience they had, or what the situation they had with their team was.
                              Last edited by Ness; 07-18-2008, 11:38 AM.

                              "Every light must fade, every heart return to darkness!"
                              -San Francisco 49ers: Five Time Super Bowl Champions-
                              Originally posted by Borat
                              Oh, my bad. Didn't realize SWDC was the pinnacle of class and grace.

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