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Pass to Win? Why running for 100 isn't as effective as throwing for 300 (anymore)

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  • Pass to Win? Why running for 100 isn't as effective as throwing for 300 (anymore)

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4684

    A fascinating look at how the NFL has changed since the beginning of the decade.

    Here is the W/L record when a player has 100 yards rushing, or 300 yards passing, going back to 2002 (oh, and curse you Donovan McNabb and Tommy Maddox). 300 yard passers 100 yard rushers
    ================================================== ========================
    W L PCT W L PCT
    ================================================== ========================
    2009 .695 - .703
    2008 .625 - .769
    2007 .531 - .739
    2006 .574 - .704
    2005 .468 - .833
    2004 .444 - .754
    2003 .483 - .709
    2002 .563 - .706
    ================================================== ========================


    It used to be that you would win football games with defense and a dynamic running game. Now the prolific passing offenses have caught up in w/l percentage.
    Last edited by Shiver; 11-19-2009, 01:42 PM.


  • #2
    i think Manning, Brady and Brees kinda screw with the stats

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    • #3
      Jeez, running for 100 yards really worked in 2005.

      by BoneKrusher
      <DG> how metal unseen
      <TheUnseen> Drunken Canadian Bastard: There's an APS for that

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      • #4
        True, but Manning was throwing it for 4,000 yards back in 2003 and 2004 when the w/l percentage was sub-.500.

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        • #5
          The bengals have ran and played def all year and they are winning. The whole AFCN is like that. we have had like 1 300 yard passing game. We have had more 100 yard rushing game then 300 yard passing and we are 7-2 so i disagree with this


          RIP themaninblack

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          • #6
            Your right its is catching up, but look at how big the difference was the last 2 years, just wait for the 09 season to end.

            You still get more wins by running.

            Also factor in the new rules of the game, and then look at the years passing wins increased. I'm sure the no contact after 5 yards, you'll see an increase, also add in there the no force out rule, and then look at it when they put the force our rule back into play.

            Having a pass game is great, lets you score at will, but if you can't stop it on the other side or eat up the clock good luck winning.

            These numbers are great for regular season, but look at the playoffs how many teams win with these high flying offenses.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by bhaarat316 View Post
              Your right its is catching up, but look at how big the difference was the last 2 years, just wait for the 09 season to end.

              You still get more wins by running.

              Also factor in the new rules of the game, and then look at the years passing wins increased. I'm sure the no contact after 5 yards, you'll see an increase, also add in there the no force out rule, and then look at it when they put the force our rule back into play.

              Having a pass game is great, lets you score at will, but if you can't stop it on the other side or eat up the clock good luck winning.

              These numbers are great for regular season, but look at the playoffs how many teams win with these high flying offenses.
              Even that is changing: the Steelers and Cardinals last year both had mediocre at best rushing attacks.

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              • #8
                I think these statistics are a little skewed because it does not factor in the growth of the RBC.

                You may not have many 100 yard rushers anymore, but you do have prolific run games ran by several backs out of a committee.

                I still personally believe that defense and the run game win championships. Just wait until the playoffs roll by. Or at the very least, once it gets cold and windy. The stats will start favoring the running teams.

                And also, let's not forget, its always much harder to win games when you don't have a good qb. And teams with good qbs will generally throw for more yards than teams who don't.

                The importance of a great qb is always important, and that will skew results as well.

                But when was the last time a team won the SB with a terrible defense?

                Id still build my team around defense and the run game.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I think this rise in 300 yard passers and decline of 100 yard rushers can be attributed to two things:

                  1. The return of the R.B.B.C., in the vein of the 1970s, now almost every team uses a platoon for its rushing offense. I can count on one hand the amount of 'feature' backs there are in the NFL. The days of the 350-carry workhorse is long gone, for now anyway.

                  2. The rise of zone coverages has led to offenses counteracting with spread formations, three wide-receivers and a pass catching 'tweener TE. The quick dumpoffs to a Dallas Clark, Owen Daniels, Kevin Faulk, Wes Welker, etc. work about as effectively as a run play and serve the same purpose.
                  Last edited by Shiver; 11-19-2009, 02:09 PM.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by bigbluedefense View Post
                    I think these statistics are a little skewed because it does not factor in the growth of the RBC.

                    You may not have many 100 yard rushers anymore, but you do have prolific run games ran by several backs out of a committee.

                    I still personally believe that defense and the run game win championships. Just wait until the playoffs roll by. Or at the very least, once it gets cold and windy. The stats will start favoring the running teams.

                    As for the 'run game wins in the playoffs' argument, can that really be said anymore? The Cardinals and Steelers last year had below average run offenses.

                    2008 - Steelers, Cardinals
                    2007 - Patriots, Giants (run offense)
                    2006 - Colts, Bears (run offense)
                    2005 - Steelers (run offense), Seahawks (run offense)
                    2004 - Patriots (the one time they had a dominant RB), Eagles
                    2003 - Patriots, Panthers (run offense)
                    2002 - Tampa Bay (no offense lol), Raiders
                    2001 - Patriots, Rams
                    2000 - Ravens (run offense), Giants (run offense)

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                    • #11
                      for the cards it was the reemergence of the running game in the playoffs and defensive turnovers that lead to a win. for the steelers it was the dominant defense

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                      • #12
                        Larry Fitzgerald says otherwise. He had the most dominant run by any WR in NFL history, I am pretty sure he was a bigger impact during their wins than Tim Hightower.

                        Of course defense is extremely important, no one denies that, but we are discussing is how passing orientated offenses have surpassed run orientated ones.

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                        • #13
                          The rules have been altered in recent years to favor the best passing offenses. QB's are more protected and receivers can't be touched past 5 yards from the LOS. It's clear that the NFL is a passing league now.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Shiver View Post
                            http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4684

                            A fascinating look at how the NFL has changed since the beginning of the decade.

                            Here is the W/L record when a player has 100 yards rushing, or 300 yards passing, going back to 2002 (oh, and curse you Donovan McNabb and Tommy Maddox). 300 yard passers 100 yard rushers
                            ================================================== ========================
                            W L PCT W L PCT
                            ================================================== ========================
                            2009 .695 - .703
                            2008 .625 - .769
                            2007 .531 - .739
                            2006 .574 - .704
                            2005 .468 - .833
                            2004 .444 - .754
                            2003 .483 - .709
                            2002 .563 - .706
                            ================================================== ========================


                            It used to be that you would win football games with defense and a dynamic running game. Now the prolific passing offenses have caught up in w/l percentage.
                            Actually the NFL changed quite a few rules to help the passing game and it certainly worked 2003 through 2005 and peaked in the 2005 season. Since then the stats are beginning to move in the opposite direction a bit and this season there isn't that significant a difference even with all the rules favouring the passing game still in effect. Also how many of those winning teams also possessed solid running attacks to go along with their passing attack.
                            And proud of it!!!

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                            • #15
                              This again. I really can't be bothered breaking down the numbers, but the secret isn't so secret, you need balance, plain and simple, balance, balance balance.

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