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A QB comparison (dome versus field)

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  • #16
    Originally posted by descendency View Post
    This isn't just about Peyton Manning.

    Consider someone who is "borderline" hall of fame, Kurt Warner. Warner's best years were in St Louis (dome) and Arizona (dome). He has a similar "assist" from the dome factor as Peyton Manning (Warner gets a small amount more from the dome, but it's negligible). If he gets into the HoF, it will likely be because of the dome. If he doesn't, it'll likely be because he didn't last long enough at a high level.

    I like Kurt Warner a lot, but if he played in Green Bay or Chicago instead of St Louis and Arizona, I can't see him as a hall of famer.
    Some consider this to be Brett Favre's best season so far. He's played 9 of the 14 games this year in a dome.

    Those 4 games not in a dome, take a peak at his numbers.
    98/156, 62.8%, 1104 Yards, 6 TD, 3 INT

    On the season.
    312/460, 67.8%, 3565 Yards, 27 TD, 7 INT

    Just throwing that out there.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by tjsunstein View Post
      They aren't good aside from the game against Baltimore where he threw 4 TDs on 17 attempts. I would even go as far as saying that they are bad outside of that game. The schedule makers have been very kind to him.

      I had a huge post laying out all the December and January games he's playing in since 1999 but then pressed back so I lost the post. I'm kind of down now that happened. I'll simplify it.

      Peyton Manning in the Northeast in December and January.

      2009:
      @ Buffalo Week 17. A game in which he may not play after halftime.

      2008:
      None.

      2007:
      @ Baltimore Week 14. W 44-20
      13/17, 249 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT

      2006:
      @ Baltimore Divisional Round. W 15-6
      15/30, 170 Yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

      2005:
      None.

      2004:
      @ New England Divisional Round. L 3-20
      27/42, 238 Yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

      2003:
      @ New England AFC Championship Game. L 14-24
      23/47, 237 Yards, 1 TD, 4 INT

      2002:
      @ New York Jets Wild Card Round. L 0-41
      14/31, 137 Yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

      2001:
      @ Baltimore Week 13. L 27-39
      27/48, 310 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

      2000:
      @ New York Jets Week 14. L 17-27
      27/51, 339 Yards, 2 TD, 2 INT

      1999:
      @ Buffalo Week 17. L 6-31. Homefield already clinched.
      18/29, 163 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

      1998, Rookie Year:
      None.

      You be the judge.

      The numbers: 164/295 , 1843Yards, 9 TD, 12 INT in 8 games with 1 pending.
      On average, per game: 20.5/36.9, 230.4 Yards, 1.1 TD, 1.5 INT

      Very mediocre numbers. Who should we compare them to? Kurt Warner's history in the Northeast in December and January? There has to be a bench mark for this. What other long tenure future HOF or already HOF QBs have played in a dome/ fair weather for most of their career?
      this is good stuff. let's compare this to Tom Brady. i bet his cold weather #s are much better.

      this is one of the more overlooked stats in football. how many of the "elite" # having qbs in the league play in domes/good weather?

      its much harder to put up #s when you play for cold weather teams. it makes Brady's stats that much more impressive.

      everyone tends to overlook this tidbit.

      thats why stats never tell the whole story.

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      • #18
        Let's play the other card; the defense benefits just as greatly from the dome conditions as does the QB and his offense. The defensive ends I'm thinking in particular, take the Colts duo of Freeney and Mathis, or a hybrid player like Dockett for example. Just another perspective to consider as well.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by 619 View Post
          Let's play the other card; the defense benefits just as greatly from the dome conditions as does the QB and his offense. The defensive ends I'm thinking in particular, take the Colts duo of Freeney and Mathis, or a hybrid player like Dockett for example. Just another perspective to consider as well.
          this is true, and a very good point.

          but your example is not good, bc Freeney and Mathis benefit greatly from playing on carpet. Their whole game is based on speed, and bad weather, sloppy field etc hampers their speed.

          But a team like the Patriots, who are a strength based defense, they surely benefit.

          this is a very good thread.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by bigbluedefense View Post
            this is good stuff. let's compare this to Tom Brady. i bet his cold weather #s are much better.

            this is one of the more overlooked stats in football. how many of the "elite" # having qbs in the league play in domes/good weather?

            its much harder to put up #s when you play for cold weather teams. it makes Brady's stats that much more impressive.

            everyone tends to overlook this tidbit.

            thats why stats never tell the whole story.
            Tom Brady is actually very good when the weather is below 41 degrees. Here are his numbers:

            91.9 rating, 62.2% and 2.4:1 TD:INT

            Compare that to Manning in the same situation:

            86.9 rating, 61.3% and 1.4:1 TD:INT

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            • #21
              Originally posted by bigbluedefense View Post
              this is true, and a very good point.

              but your example is not good, bc Freeney and Mathis benefit greatly from playing on carpet. Their whole game is based on speed, and bad weather, sloppy field etc hampers their speed.

              But a team like the Patriots, who are a strength based defense, they surely benefit.

              this is a very good thread.
              Sorry, it was flawed logic on my part. How could Freeney + Mathis benefit from a surface they are already accustomed to? It would be of great benefit to the opponents in this case, of course, like the Pats as you mentioned, and your Giants whenever they travel to the Jones' palace.

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              • #22
                The Vikings and Saints have it very easy this year with the playoffs. Neither team has to travel to the cold weather of Philly, Green Bay, or even the Meadowlands if the Giants somehow sneak in if that were the case and even if they win, they play in another dome. That of course, is barring two upsets on that side of the bracket, which I for one am rooting for, for obvious reasons.

                Before we look at Brady's stats, I would like to point out that half, if not more, are at home where crowd noise is a non-factor. He also plays there on a week to week basis so the climate adaptation isn't that as drastic as one of Peyton Manning or any other dome/fair weather QB. Or maybe that's what we want to look at to see exactly how drastic the adaptation is. A lot of people have or had Brady and Manning 1a and 1b ranked at the top of their QB list sometime in the last ten years so it'd be interesting to see how they're matched up.

                I'll throw the stats up here after work if no one else compiles them.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by 619 View Post
                  Sorry, it was flawed logic on my part. How could Freeney + Mathis benefit from a surface they are already accustomed to? It would be of great benefit to the opponents in this case, of course, like the Pats as you mentioned, and your Giants whenever they travel to the Jones' palace.
                  Speed is accentuated on carpet. So if your game is based on speed, you're going to play better on carpet. Thats why the Colts draft the way they do. They are big on measurables and in particular, speed. Its bc they can maximize that speed at their home games bc of that carpet.

                  If your team is faster than the other team, you get in and out of your breaks faster etc, whatever makes you faster will benefit you vs your opponent bc of the relative advantage you get over your opponent in that situation.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by P-L View Post
                    Tom Brady is actually very good when the weather is below 41 degrees. Here are his numbers:

                    91.9 rating, 62.2% and 2.4:1 TD:INT

                    Compare that to Manning in the same situation:

                    86.9 rating, 61.3% and 1.4:1 TD:INT
                    To be fair, Manning's numbers aren't entirely bad according to that stat. You expect somewhat of a dropoff in production regardless.


                    Whats interesting to me is seeing how qbs fare in very windy and difficult stadiums to throw in, like Chicago and NY.

                    Another thing to factor in is scheme. Naturally a WCO qb will have better numbers in bad conditions compared to a Air Coryell qb.

                    I firmly believe that if youre a team that plays in a windy cold weather area, having a big armed qb and running a WCO are the most effective ways of having a pass oriented team in those conditions.

                    Of course, traditionally, most cold weather windy teams have based their offense on the run game and PA pass. but if you want a pass oriented offense in those conditions, I think the WCO gives you the best shot. You also need your qb to have a big arm.

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                    • #25
                      I think an underlying theme of this thread is how different teams need to draft according to their situations.

                      For example, many people look back at the Giants taking Phil Simms over Joe Montana and say that was a bad move in hindsight, but let's be real, would Montana be as good in NY as he was in SF? (he'd still be better than Simms most likely, but you can see why he was passed up)

                      Montana had horrible games in NY during December during his career. Imagine him playing 8 home games a year for NY? He wouldn't be the same qb.


                      Its why the Jets passed on Matt Leinart. Its why the Giants had Eli Manning and Roethlisberger as their 1 and 2 qbs on their list, and had no interest in Phillip Rivers.

                      Its why the AFC North and the NFC East are traditionally defense oriented run oriented teams while you have more of the successful passing offenses in league history coming from the West Coast and dome teams.

                      You draft according to your location and its limitations, and according to who you play in your division.

                      If you play a run heavy division, you put more emphasis on run defenders. If youre playing a high powered offensive division, you need to put more emphasis on CBs.

                      It all comes down to what you are, and you have to identify it and draft accordingly.

                      I think for this reason, you see a discrepancy in how teams draft. Cold weather teams tend to favor defense and the run game, whereas warm weather/dome teams can focus more on scoring and building around the qb.

                      Now the real question is, who has the advantage in today's league? It seems more than ever, scoring and passing the ball are dominating the game (during the regular season at least. im still a firm believer that defense and the run game dominate the playoffs). So does this shift the competitive advantage over to teams who have a better chance of developing qbs in warm weather/domes?

                      Was there ever a competitive advantage one way or the other to begin with?

                      Its something to think about.

                      At the very least, I think it makes for good discussion.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by tjsunstein View Post
                        The Vikings and Saints have it very easy this year with the playoffs. Neither team has to travel to the cold weather of Philly, Green Bay, or even the Meadowlands if the Giants somehow sneak in
                        If Philly wins out and Minny drops a game, Philly gets the #2 seed, so it would be possible for Minny to travel to Philly.

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                        • #27
                          Sniper, possible but not done yet. Plus, I misworded that statement. The Vikings and Saints don't have it easy, no one does. They have more of an advantage, if there is such a thing in the playoffs. This year, I like to think of it as a shorter ride home for the loser. It's obvious to everyone that having home field means you have an upper hand but the importance of it is underplayed in my opinion.

                          I agree with everything in the epic post by bbd. Teams always cater to their needs to compete with not only the other teams in their division but their surroundings as well. The exception to your logic however may be the Green Bay Packers themselves. They play in a cold weather environment, frozen tundra obviously, but tend to address offense more times than not since 2006That could be for a plethora of reasons however. May be us trying to rebuild our offense around Aaron Rodgers (drafted '05), trying to replace aging players, and keep up with or get ahead of our division's tendencies, or may be because we addressed, or tried to, defense in so many drafts previous to that because of the stability and consistency that Favre provided. The Vikings previous to this year (and maybe even still are) have been a run first team. The Bears are changing identities by the week and the Lions haven't had one since Barry Sanders skipped town. Now that we're transitioning, obviously we will address defense a little more heavily but it seems to be quantity over quality for Green Bay.

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                          • #28
                            I don't really get this whole topic. I mean, isn't it common knowledge a QB will play better in a dome (their home dome) and worse on the road in the winter? I'm just saying, if this is about who's a better cold weather QB or somethingm than fine. Maybe I'm missing something. It is kinda late...
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                            Originally posted by PalmerToCJ
                            BTW, if it's 3rd and 97... I'm throwing a screen pass to Brian Leonard and he will convert.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by P-L View Post
                              Tom Brady is actually very good when the weather is below 41 degrees. Here are his numbers:

                              91.9 rating, 62.2% and 2.4:1 TD:INT

                              Compare that to Manning in the same situation:

                              86.9 rating, 61.3% and 1.4:1 TD:INT
                              To be fair to Manning, though, are you only including Tom's road games in sub 41 degree weather? Because QBs generally do better at home than on the road, and Peyton Manning has never and most likely will never play a home game in bad conditions. It wouldn't shock me at all if Tom's road numbers in those conditions were better as well, if only because he's more used to playing in those conditions.


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                              • #30
                                I think the main point of this thread is that the Bears need to build a ******* dome.
                                Credit to BoneKrusher for the Sig
                                RIP themaninblack

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