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A QB comparison (dome versus field)

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  • A QB comparison (dome versus field)

    Let's look at two QBs:

    QB1 - 63.063% completion, 7.380 yards per attempt, 21.155 attempts per touchdown, 32.106 attempts per INT, 40.630 % of points
    QB2 - 65.985% completion, 7.893 yards per attempt, 15.878 attempts per touchdown, 39.611 attempts per INT, 46.244 % of points

    QB2 is clearly better. He has a better completion percentage, more yards per attempt, fewer attempts per touchdown, more attempts per interception, and is a greater percent of the offense.

    QB2 is Peyton Manning. QB1 is Peyton Manning as well. QB1 is Manning on the road outside of domes and QB2 is Manning in a dome on the road. It raises an interesting question... how much has the dome helped Manning?

    Peyton Manning plays 10 games a year in a dome on average. In a 15 year career, that's 150 games in his career. At 30 attempts per game, you'll come up to around 100 more touchdowns in a career and 50 fewer interceptions in a career.

    I'm not posting this to try and knock Peyton Manning. I think he just gives the most extreme example because of how much the Colts rely on him. However, he isn't the player who is most biased by domes.

    Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees have a completion rating of over 5 points higher in domes. Brees and Roethlisberger also average more yards per attempt in domes and fewer attempts per interception.

    Tom Brady is another QB who sees a fairly large discrepancy in domes versus field.

    However, let me make this clear, these are *only* road games. I am not counting the fact that Manning plays 8 games a year in a dome at home or Brees, or anyone else. This only counts road games.

    As a matter of fact of the 15 NFL QBs included in this, no one seemed to be unaffected by being in a dome. Only one QB was negatively effected (surprisingly) - Philip Rivers.

    On average (the 15) QBs complete 2.5% more passes, 0.5 yard more per attempt, have 4 fewer attempts per touchdown, and 4 more attempts per interception. Kind of oddly, they also contribute 2% more to the offense (not really because coaches call fewer passes when their teams are outside in weather).

    The 15 QBs selected were selected based on length of career (more games to make this more effective). They are Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Marc Bulger, Kerry Collins, Matt Hasselbeck, Philip Rivers, and David Garrard (who was removed for being an out-lier, clearly such. No idea why he biases so easily).

    Back to the original point: A QB who throws for 350 touchdowns and 250 INTs is percieved a lot differently than a QB who throws for 450 touchdowns and 200 INTs. Both are probably hall of fame QBs, but one is in the small room and the other is just another QB in the hall of fame. Domes clearly impact QBs and therefore offenses. It shouldn't be a surprise that the top teams this year are either in domes or in sunny areas with little weather. It shouldn't be a shocker that teams like Pittsburgh, New England, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and such struggle to utilize the passing game as well (granted, they have pretty good passing games...).

    I'm not crying unfair (both teams play on the same field ultimately) but it clearly does effect things. Donovan McNabb and Tom Brady could reverse roles with Drew Brees and Peyton Manning had they been drafted in a different location.

    Obviously, you are wondering "What about the Rams?" The answer to that is simple. They suck. Their front office doesn't know anything about talent and can't get a team together for their coaches to use. I mean, they played mini-golf to determine the #2 overall pick in 2007 (Chris Long) who doesn't fit their defense. The year before, they draft Adam Carriker. The year after, they over -draft (in my opinion) Jason Smith. (Granted, I had Andre Smith as my #1 run blocking tackle... I was wrong too.) That's 3 years in a row that they picked in the top 13, no good picks. No franchise changers. Now they're going to debate between Suh, Clausen, Bradford, McCoy (Gerald), Okung, Berry, and maybe a few others and I'm 99% sure they will make the wrong decision again.
    **** her in da *****!

  • #2
    Nice effort in putting this all together, but I doubt anyone is going to be surprised by this information. We all know that if you take away wind, temperature & moisture then QB's have just that many fewer elements stopping them from doing their job.

    However, I think it's interesting to know that Manning plays in a dome so often and it effects his stats so much. I now wonder how his career would look if he had been drafted by Green Bay, New England, Cleveland or any other cold weather home field team that didn't play in a dome. And that's not even taking into account the things that are so frequently brought up like supporting cast, scheme, etc.

    Good read for me, anyways.

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    • #3
      It's definitely one of those big difference makers in a QB's career that typically doesn't get acknowledged very much.

      With all due respect to Peyton, sometimes I wonder what Marino would have looked like with an offense swamped with 1st round picks at the skill positions, inside a dome more than 8 times a year. Peyton has basically had the most ideal, best case circumstances in every aspect a QB could want.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by OzTitan View Post
        It's definitely one of those big difference makers in a QB's career that typically doesn't get acknowledged very much.

        With all due respect to Peyton, sometimes I wonder what Marino would have looked like with an offense swamped with 1st round picks at the skill positions, inside a dome more than 8 times a year. Peyton has basically had the most ideal, best case circumstances in every aspect a QB could want.
        Then again, Peyton Manning has also done some pretty special things in games... like coming back from 21 multiple times in his career and even quite a bit in the 4th quarter.

        Marino played 8 games a year in Miami... not a huge difference between Miami and a dome.

        Brett Favre has had 8 in green bay, 1 in Chicago yearly. Tom Brady is the one I wonder about the most. 8 in New England, 1 in NY/NJ, 1 in Buffalo. And then potentially a worse if they play the AFC North when they play Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. That's 12 games in a year that would be places where the elements are very rough. (8 at home, 2 division games, and 2 on the road)
        **** her in da *****!

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        • #5
          Originally posted by descendency View Post
          Then again, Peyton Manning has also done some pretty special things in games... like coming back from 21 multiple times in his career and even quite a bit in the 4th quarter.

          Marino played 8 games a year in Miami... not a huge difference between Miami and a dome.

          Brett Favre has had 8 in green bay, 1 in Chicago yearly. Tom Brady is the one I wonder about the most. 8 in New England, 1 in NY/NJ, 1 in Buffalo. And then potentially a worse if they play the AFC North when they play Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. That's 12 games in a year that would be places where the elements are very rough. (8 at home, 2 division games, and 2 on the road)
          September and October in those locations really aren't that rough.


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          • #6
            QB 1 is still better than more than half of the QB's in the league. So really, this is moot. All I'm reading is Peyton is slightly less amazing on the road, outside than he is in his comfy home dome. I'm pretty amazed I must say.
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            • #7
              Originally posted by descendency View Post

              Peyton Manning plays 10 games a year in a dome on average. In a 15 year career, that's 150 games in his career. At 30 attempts per game, you'll come up to around 100 more touchdowns in a career and 50 fewer interceptions in a career.
              Originally posted by descendency View Post

              However, let me make this clear, these are *only* road games. I am not counting the fact that Manning plays 8 games a year in a dome at home or Brees, or anyone else. This only counts road games.
              OP if you don't mind, explain what I highlighted in red to me. If you take away his 8 home games, he only has 8 more games in the year, thus how does he average 10 games in a dome every year?

              Or are you saying that overall, he averages 10 games in a dome, but the stats you took were only from road games?

              That may also shed some light onto Scottyboy's post:

              Originally posted by scottyboy View Post
              QB 1 is still better than more than half of the QB's in the league. So really, this is moot. All I'm reading is Peyton is slightly less amazing on the road, outside than he is in his comfy home dome. I'm pretty amazed I must say.

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              • #8
                Texans play in a dome, and they are more the likely to play one other team in a dome.

                edit: wait yeah...how do you only take road stats yet average 10 games in a dome?

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                • #9
                  The stats he posted were only for road games, just because it's more likely for a QB to be better at home than on the road, because of crowd noise and such, and he didn't want that to skew the data. He said Manning plays 10 games/year in a dome, because on average, he does.

                  Also with Rivers, I think one reason his stats might be down in a dome is because I imagine he doesn't have much experience in one. No one in the AFC West plays in a dome, no one in the East, no one in the North, and then two in the South. I imagine most of his dome experience is limited to once, maybe twice per year. And he's only been a starter for like four years. Also, three road games per season are against Denver, Oakland and KC. Neither of these teams have been good on defense consistently since he's been in the league. And when Denver is good defensively, he kills them anyway.

                  Excellent job putting this together, though.
                  Last edited by MichaelJordanEberle (sabf); 12-23-2009, 01:29 AM.


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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Bengalsrocket View Post
                    OP if you don't mind, explain what I highlighted in red to me. If you take away his 8 home games, he only has 8 more games in the year, thus how does he average 10 games in a dome every year?

                    Or are you saying that overall, he averages 10 games in a dome, but the stats you took were only from road games?

                    That may also shed some light onto Scottyboy's post:
                    10 games per year in a dome. 8 at home, 1 at houston, and 1 somewhere else.

                    The stats are only over road games, but when I talk about his career impact (the 100/50 numbers) I apply it to full seasons (Both home and road). I assume they play at least as well at home as on the road (which is seemingly true for everyone except Eli Manning... lol).

                    edit: As was mentioned, I exclude home games because the home environment should help a QB. Since Peyton and a few others play in domes at home this could cause a bias in the numbers. I could also cause a bias based on how poorly some QBs might play on the road versus at home, but I don't think so.
                    Last edited by descendency; 12-23-2009, 02:45 AM.
                    **** her in da *****!

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                    • #11
                      Some good work there.

                      I wonder if there someway to factor in who they play. For instance, I imagine that Aaron Rodgers looks pretty good in domes given that the majority of his starts are against the Vikes and Lions who have both been pretty poor against the pass.


                      Props to BK on the sig!

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by OzTitan View Post
                        It's definitely one of those big difference makers in a QB's career that typically doesn't get acknowledged very much.

                        With all due respect to Peyton, sometimes I wonder what Marino would have looked like with an offense swamped with 1st round picks at the skill positions, inside a dome more than 8 times a year. Peyton has basically had the most ideal, best case circumstances in every aspect a QB could want.
                        in all fairness Oz he puts in so many hours outside of football he lives and breaths what he does, if he didnt put in the effort he wouldnt be as good at all

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Theres no question that playing in a dome has inflated his stats. Thats the case with every qb. A dome will always help your accuracy.

                          Having said that, this is Peyton Manning. So I don't know if you can really say that it effected him greatly.

                          Im curious to see his numbers in the northeast in November and December and January. Those #s are interesting to me.

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                          • #14
                            This isn't just about Peyton Manning.

                            Consider someone who is "borderline" hall of fame, Kurt Warner. Warner's best years were in St Louis (dome) and Arizona (dome). He has a similar "assist" from the dome factor as Peyton Manning (Warner gets a small amount more from the dome, but it's negligible). If he gets into the HoF, it will likely be because of the dome. If he doesn't, it'll likely be because he didn't last long enough at a high level.

                            I like Kurt Warner a lot, but if he played in Green Bay or Chicago instead of St Louis and Arizona, I can't see him as a hall of famer.
                            **** her in da *****!

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by bigbluedefense View Post
                              Im curious to see his numbers in the northeast in November and December and January. Those #s are interesting to me.
                              They aren't good aside from the game against Baltimore where he threw 4 TDs on 17 attempts. I would even go as far as saying that they are bad outside of that game. The schedule makers have been very kind to him.

                              I had a huge post laying out all the December and January games he's playing in since 1999 but then pressed back so I lost the post. I'm kind of down now that happened. I'll simplify it.

                              Peyton Manning in the Northeast in December and January.

                              2009:
                              @ Buffalo Week 17. A game in which he may not play after halftime.

                              2008:
                              None.

                              2007:
                              @ Baltimore Week 14. W 44-20
                              13/17, 249 Yards, 4 TD, 0 INT

                              2006:
                              @ Baltimore Divisional Round. W 15-6
                              15/30, 170 Yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

                              2005:
                              None.

                              2004:
                              @ New England Divisional Round. L 3-20
                              27/42, 238 Yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

                              2003:
                              @ New England AFC Championship Game. L 14-24
                              23/47, 237 Yards, 1 TD, 4 INT

                              2002:
                              @ New York Jets Wild Card Round. L 0-41
                              14/31, 137 Yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

                              2001:
                              @ Baltimore Week 13. L 27-39
                              27/48, 310 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

                              2000:
                              @ New York Jets Week 14. L 17-27
                              27/51, 339 Yards, 2 TD, 2 INT

                              1999:
                              @ Buffalo Week 17. L 6-31. Homefield already clinched.
                              18/29, 163 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

                              1998, Rookie Year:
                              None.

                              You be the judge.

                              The numbers: 164/295 , 1843Yards, 9 TD, 12 INT in 8 games with 1 pending.
                              On average, per game: 20.5/36.9, 230.4 Yards, 1.1 TD, 1.5 INT

                              Very mediocre numbers. Who should we compare them to? Kurt Warner's history in the Northeast in December and January? There has to be a bench mark for this. What other long tenure future HOF or already HOF QBs have played in a dome/ fair weather for most of their career?
                              Last edited by tjsunstein; 12-24-2009, 08:06 AM.

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