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  • Lockout 2011?

    How likely do you guys reckon it is that it will happen?

  • #2
    Not very likely. The hardest part is going to be getting the owners all on one page...after that, I think both sides will realize they can't risk letting anything happen to the greatest (and most profitable) sport in America and will come to terms.

    I'll be very shocked if there is lockout. VERY shocked.

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    • #3
      I would never say never but I think both sides know how good they have it and don't want to mess it up.

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      • #4
        Most likely not.

        But as Splat said, never say never.

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        • #5
          I say very unlikely. I mean those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Every league that has has a lockout has utterly destroyed the fan relations and the other leagues prosper. It is no coincidence that the NFL is the only league that hasn't had a recent lockout and is way far and away the the most popular sport in the country.
          Stafford Sig by touchdownrams the rest of the sig by Sig Master Bone Krusher Avy by King of all avys renji


          DEATH NOTE MAFIA SIGNUP!

          Originally posted by njx9
          oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.

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          • #6
            Money makes people do stupid things... I wouldn't rule anything out.

            I'm curious to see if blood testing comes up as a chip to play for the player's union though

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            • #7
              Originally posted by wonderbredd24 View Post
              Money makes people do stupid things... I wouldn't rule anything out.

              I'm curious to see if blood testing comes up as a chip to play for the player's union though
              Well, the thing is, everybody loses money if no games get played in 2011.

              Most of the owners are mega-rich with or without income from their football team...the players though, when they're used to living million dollar lifestyles and then suddenly stop having the paychecks flow in, they'll be hurting.

              But no side of this...the owners, players or fans, wants to see this hit a lockout. And I'll be very surprised if it does.

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              • #8
                I'll be pretty surprised by a lockout. I'll give it a 15% chance of it happening though if I had to put a number on it.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by BeerBaron View Post
                  Well, the thing is, everybody loses money if no games get played in 2011.

                  But no side of this...the owners, players or fans, wants to see this hit a lockout. And I'll be very surprised if it does.
                  Actually, from what I hear, the owners actually make more money if there is a lockout. Even if no games are played, they still get the money from all the TV contracts and they don't have to pay player salaries.

                  Because of this, the owners don't have any real incentive to give up ground. If you believe DeMaurice Smith, the chances of a lockout in 2011 are a "14 on a 1-10 scale." Now I'm not going to go that far, but I would say the chances of a lockout are at least 75%.

                  Originally posted by SolidGold
                  Bortlezzzzzzz
                  Originally posted by Monomach
                  Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by jrdrylie View Post
                    Actually, from what I hear, the owners actually make more money if there is a lockout. Even if no games are played, they still get the money from all the TV contracts and they don't have to pay player salaries.
                    How this works is that, the TV deal is for X years, and the owners will be paid for those X years on time. If there's a strike and games don't start right away, the league has to deliver X years-worth of games. So the owners lose out, they just lose out several years down the road when they have to deliver games without receiving TV revenue.

                    I'd put it at below 10% that there's a strike. Still a long way to go.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by jrdrylie View Post
                      Actually, from what I hear, the owners actually make more money if there is a lockout. Even if no games are played, they still get the money from all the TV contracts and they don't have to pay player salaries.

                      Because of this, the owners don't have any real incentive to give up ground. If you believe DeMaurice Smith, the chances of a lockout in 2011 are a "14 on a 1-10 scale." Now I'm not going to go that far, but I would say the chances of a lockout are at least 75%.
                      That TV deal is false. A few months ago, PFT had an article saying that the owners will have to pay that money back if no games end up being paid.

                      Found it: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...ayer-reserves/

                      But here's the catch. The networks would get their money back by paying less for the privilege of televising pro football in 2012 and beyond.

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                      • #12
                        I sure hope not.

                        The players need this more than the owners, and the owners know it. Thats why the owners have all the leverage like they always do.

                        They own the stadiums that they can host concerts etc in, they have other ways of making money, they'll still make money in case of a lockout. Players won't.

                        The player's union is trying to flex muscles that they don't have.

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                        • #13
                          Not gonna happen, the NFL is too big to not play for a year, they will get together and make it work.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by bigbluedefense View Post
                            I sure hope not.

                            The players need this more than the owners, and the owners know it. Thats why the owners have all the leverage like they always do.

                            They own the stadiums that they can host concerts etc in, they have other ways of making money, they'll still make money in case of a lockout. Players won't.

                            The player's union is trying to flex muscles that they don't have.
                            Which is what makes this entire situation so interesting. For all the respect players had for Gene Upshaw (RIP), the players knew that he was in bed with Tagliabue and the owners and didn't really represent their best interests. The most violent professional sport in America (with the shortest average career at that) still doesn't have guaranteed contracts for god's sake. They finally did the smart thing and pursued a real litigator who knows wtf he's doing to represent them.

                            I've got a feeling the lockout is more likely to happen than any fans are willing to believe. Think of how many teams have built new stadiums in the past ten years or so, are sagged with that debt in a struggling economy, and are paying out more money to the players now than ever. They're going to be willing to eat a season or less worth of earnings for the long-term benefits they're bound to reap when the players finally cave in.

                            There's just going to be so much difficulty in hammering out a new CBA in the next year. First of all, there's not going to be any real progress in negotiations until after the season has ended. So once the season has ended, there's going to be about six months for them to figure out a littany of issues. Considering that the previous CBA deal was thrown together at the last minute in order to save the league from a strike/lockout and it took the owners only two years to opt out of it - that's how bad of a deal it was. I don't think the owners are going to make the same mistake again. Small-market and large-market owners still can't decide their own differences yet - large-market teams raise the costs by exorbitant spending, yet they don't want to supplement small-market teams who can't keep up with the spending. The salary cap is gone (likely forever) so they've got to figure out a new way to deal with the movement of players. They have to figure out to do with skyrocketing top-10 rookie deals. They still don't know what the ultimate outcome of the American Needle case will be. The owners are sagged with a ton of debt from all the new stadiums built in the last 10 or so years.

                            I don't know for sure, either, but I'm sure the owners could find a way having to pay back the money for the TV deals. It could be as easy as throwing together a team of scab players and trotting them out there on Sunday afternoons.

                            Ultimately, this is going to be a long and convoluted process, and I'm expecting to lose at least a portion of next season to a lockout.

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                            • #15
                              I'm most worried about the players losing a year of playing time .

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